Japan Births Plunge To Lowest Level Ever Recorded As "Celibacy Syndrome" Takes Its Toll

Back in 2013 we asked "Why Have Young People In Japan Stopped Having Sex?" And while that might sound like nothing more than a clever headline intended for The Onion, it was prompted by a very serious survey conducted by the Japan Family Planning Association which found that 45% of Japanese women aged 16-24 and 25% of men were "not interested in or despise sexual contact"...a growing trend that has revealed itself via the nation"s persistently declining birth rates.  In fact, "celibacy syndrome" has become of such great concern for the Japanese government that it is considered a bit of a looming national catastrophe....a catastrophe that seems to be getting worse at an accelerating rate.

According to data released today by Japan"s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, child births in Japan will drop to just 941,000 in 2017, the lowest since data first started being recorded in 1899, and nearly 65% below the peak birth rate from the late 1940"s.

As the Financial Times notes today, the persistent declines in Japanese birth rates come despite the best efforts of central planners to encourage population growth via a litany of government entitlement programs aimed at helping young families cover the cost of childrearing...

The government of Shinzo Abe, prime minister, has made raising Japan’s birth rate a priority. On Friday it approved a budget that takes the first steps towards providing free pre-school, private high school and university education in an effort to reverse the trend.

 

Unless the low birth rate is reversed, the only option to increase Japan’s population would be for it to take in more immigrants. Yet despite high inflows of guest workers drawn by the strong economy, Japanese politicians have been reluctant to debate the subject.

 

Mr Abe’s government has instead set a target to raise the total fertility rate to 1.8. Officials hope the strong economy, combined with measures making it easier for women to combine work and childcare, will encourage families to have more children.

 

“We’d like to halt the decline by advancing our strategy to support children and make an easier environment for giving birth,” the ministry said.

...they"ve basically thrown in everything except a pony.

Meanwhile, Japan"s aging population means that the number of deaths will likely rise by 3% YoY in 2017 to 1.34 million, a post-World War Two high, resulting in the largest ever natural population decline of just over 400,000.   

Unfortunately, the crisis is only expected to get worse over time as projections from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research suggest the pace of population declines will accelerate and that by 2045 Japan will be losing about 900,000 residents a year.  On current trends, the population is set to fall from 126.5m to 88m by 2065 and to just 51m by 2115.

All of which means there is really only one thing left to do...instruct the BOJ to print even more money and start passing it out to expecting parents...which we"re pretty sure will solidify Haruhiko Kuroda"s official title of "biggest pimp in the world".

Exit Polls Project Sweeping Victory, Supermajority For Japan"s Abe

As widely expected, Japan Prime Minister Abe"s ruling coalition is set for a sweeping victory in Sunday"s general election, and may retain the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to revise Japan"s constitution, according to an NHK exit poll.

Shinzo Abe during an election campaign rally in Tokyo, on Oct. 21

Shortly after polls closed at 8pm, an NHK exit poll showed that Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito are set to win between 281 and 336 seats of the 465 total, boosting Abe"s chances of becoming Japan"s longest serving political leader: the Prime Minister needs 233 for a simple majority and 310 for a supermajority. Opposition parties are set to split the rest, with the left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party projected to come in second. Actual results are now being counted.

NHK also projected the leftwing Constitutional Democratic party winning 44 to 67 seats, with upstart Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope taking 38 to 59 seats.

The exit polls are in line with the most recent media seat projections, shown below:

Source: Nikkei, Mainichi, Asahi, Kyodo, Goldman Sachs

The vote took place as a typhoon lashed Japan on Sunday, threatening to damp voter turnout for the election that was widely forecast to give Abe a fresh mandate to pursue economic revival and bolster the nation"s military.  Super Typhoon Lan is one of the strongest to hit Japan in years with heavy rain expected across much of the country. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued severe weather warnings for floods, wind damage and landslides. The typhoon is projected to make landfall near Tokyo on Sunday night.

A substantial win for Abe’s coalition would pave the way for more ultra-easy monetary policy and flexible fiscal stimulus that has allowed Japan - Asia’s second-biggest economy - to grow for 6 straight quarters, if only on paper. It would also give President Trump a stable partner in pushing a hardline stance against Kim Jong Un’s regime in North Korea. The LDP is due to hold a leadership election next September. If Abe runs and wins again, he could stay on as prime minister until 2021, according to Bloomberg.

Ever the opportunist, Abe called today"s election last month more than a year before parliament’s term expired, saying he wanted to test public opinion on a proposal to divert some revenue from a planned sales-tax hike to fund education and delay moves to rein in Japan’s swollen public debt. But the timing was really mostly influenced by a recent North-Korea driven uptick in his approval rating after a series of cronyism and corruption scandals hurt his popularity earlier in the year, sending his approval rating to a record low as recently as the summer.

As the FT notes, Japan’s election has been dominated by chaos among the opposition, which also helped Abe: the Constitutional Democratic Party was set up only about two weeks ago by former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano after its predecessor split up. Other opposition lawmakers defected to populist Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s upstart Party of Hope, which briefly jumped in opinion polls before fading. In his final election appearance on Saturday, Abe attacked the opposition for its time in government from 2009-12. “Just because they’ve changed their name, they can’t change that three years and three months. You can’t fool the public,” he said.

“It’s a very tough result,” Koike was quoted by Bloomberg immediately after the exit poll was released in a televised interview from Paris, where she is attending a conference on climate change. “We have to analyze the reasons properly, but I am sorry that I caused unpleasant feelings through my words and actions.”

UPDATE: Yuriko Koike, leader of Japan"s upstart Party of Hope, responds to "tough" poll projections https://t.co/DMlsMccrg0 pic.twitter.com/BHHiHqStLV

— Bloomberg (@business) October 22, 2017

In a sign of how little hope opposition parties had of defeating Abe, Koike left the country on Saturday night to attend a mayoral meeting in Paris on climate change. Even after the Democratic party had disbanded to support her, Ms Koike declined to run, leaving the opposition without a credible candidate for prime minister.

Meanwhile, almost five years into the job, Abe touted his economic record, with unemployment at less than 3 percent and the stock market at its highest level in more than two decades, both of which are largely and exclusively a function of the BOJ monetizing every piece of debt, not to mention ETF, if can find. The massive monetary easing has weakened the yen and bolstered exports while having less success at defeating deflation and boosting pay.

Abe also portrayed his party as best placed to defend Japan against the growing threat from North Korea’s missiles and nuclear bombs. His party is considering a proposal to allow Japan to have an offensive capability for the first time since World War II.

Set to become the latest Asian nation to turn to militarism, a two-thirds majority would make it easier for him to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution, a move he sees as necessary to strengthen the military. Any change would also need to pass a public referendum, and recent polls show the public divided over the issue. The ruling coalition currently controls 68% of seats in the lower house, including 288 for the LDP and 35 for its coalition partner Komeito, according to the parliamentary website.

What happens next?

According to Goldman analyst Naohiko Baba, "a big single-party majority for the LDP would afford the Abe administration stability, leaving the economic policy framework almost intact"

Baba adds that his biggest focus is whether the LDP can secure a majority on its own. If the ruling parties attain a majority but the LDP is unable to secure a single-party majority, Prime Minister Abe could come under pressure from within his party to step down in order to take responsibility, even if the LDP/Komeito coalition continued. How the election battle will unfold is anybody’s guess. However, based on exit polls, it appears the LDP is highly likely to secure far more than a majority of votes on its own.

Such a result would enhance Prime Minister Abe’s status within the LDP, highly likely enabling him to be reelected for a third term in the LDP presidential election in September 2018 and to maintain the reins of government for longer. It would also sharply reduce uncertainty surrounding economic policy as a whole since Prime Minister Abe is able to appoint the next BOJ Governor by himself when current Governor Kuroda"s term ends in April 2018.

With the election now concluded, the calendar below lists all the main political and economic events in Japan over the next four years.

Finally, here is a breakdown of the key party manifestos of Japan"s three main political parties: the LDP, the Party of Hope and the CDP:

How Can We Learn From The Past If We Erase History?

Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

Removing monuments from the Civil War to erase history is a mistake.

This won’t be a popular opinion, and I’m okay with that. Because for now, we still have freedom of speech.

While I can understand why some people would strongly disagree, I’d like to respectfully offer a different perspective. My opinion that those monuments should be left alone isn’t because I support the horrible things that have been done in our history. It’s exactly the opposite.

Every country’s history has a dark spot in it. More than one, if we’re being honest. But the fact that we aren’t still mired in those dark places means that we have made strides toward becoming better. Erasing history, though, is a dangerous path because it means that the truth becomes something malleable that has been created instead of recorded.

Rewriting history is positively Orwellian, and a terribly dangerous path.

After President Trump won the election, his opponents began snapping up copies of 1984 so quickly that Amazon sold out of the classic. At that point, I was hopeful that it meant people would find some common ground.

Amazon has sold out of copies of George Orwell’s authoritarian classic, 1984, and they won’t have more until Feb. 2nd. The book was the number one bestseller on Tuesday and Wednesday. The publishing company, Penguin, is rushing more copies to print.

This surge in sales came after Trump’s senior adviser Kellyanne Conway used the creepy term “alternative facts” to explain away some misleading statements in White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer’s statement to the press. (source)

Alas, my hope was short lived.

All sorts of breathless articles were penned, comparing President Trump to Big Brother. (This one, for example.) But then, something else happened. And it isn’t good.

1984 has become an instruction manual.

Despite the initial furor, now it seems like these folks have decided to instead use 1984 as a how-to manual. As you watch people destroying monuments of Southern Civil War generals, renaming streets, and planning to deface the side of a mountain with their faces on it, let this chilling quote ring in your ears.

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” (George Orwell, 1984)

Without our history, good or bad, who are we? If we don’t remember where we came from, how can we hope to continuously improve? If we can’t learn from the mistakes of the past, and if the truth is “created” by the vocal minority, then how does the truth even exist anymore?

History teaches us important lessons.

We’ve all heard that quote, “Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.” So what happens when we completely erase it?

When my daughter and I took a road trip to explore American history last year, we stopped and visited many of these historic markers that are now pending demolition. We discussed the hypocrisy of a man who was responsible for resounding words of freedom in the US Constitution keeping hundreds of slaves. Her curiosity was piqued by the old homesteads. Her heart was saddened by walking into old slave quarters and seeing the shocking difference of their cramped quarters to the huge mansions beside them. Nothing you can read about in a book could possibly compare to walking through those doors and seeing the real thing.

We looked up information about General Lee and General Jackson. We learned of the famous battles where thousands of Americans from the North and the South died. When in California, we visited Manzanar, the site of an internment camp for Americans of Japanese heritage. She learned so much about our country’s ugly past and about how our ideals as a nation were changed for the better.

We also spent a lot of time at various civil rights monuments, in particular, the Harriet Tubman Museum and the Underground Railroad Byway. (My daughter has been fascinated by Tubman since she read her biography in third grade.) After seeing the old plantations and the slave quarters, Tubman’s heroism was suddenly writ large. Would her heroic acts have made so great an impression if my daughter hadn’t learned the backstory? Heroism doesn’t exist in a vacuum.

Erasing the negative part of history doesn’t make it go away Sanitizing the facts doesn’t mean that they never happened. It just means no one can learn from them.

Our very language is being rewritten.

Everything has now become so politically correct that most of us have no idea what to say in certain situations, lest we be chastised as horrible bigots. The schools are systematically brainwashing children and the indoctrination is completed in our colleges and universities.

“Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing.” (George Orwell, 1984)

By manipulating language, opinions are manipulated, as is a sense of right and wrong.

Newspeak is real.

“Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it. Every concept that can ever be needed will be expressed by exactly one word, with its meaning rigidly defined and all its subsidiary meanings rubbed out and forgotten.

By 2050, earlier, probably – all real knowledge of Oldspeak will have disappeared. The whole literature of the past will have been destroyed. Chaucer, Shakespeare, Milton, Byron – they’ll exist only in Newspeak versions, not merely changed into something different, but actually changed into something contradictory of what they used to be. Even the literature of the Party will change. Even the slogans will change. How could you have a slogan like ‘freedom is slavery’ when the concept of freedom has been abolished? The whole climate of thought will be different. In fact there will be no thought, as we understand it now. Orthodoxy means not thinking – not needing to think. Orthodoxy is unconsciousness.” (George Orwell, 1984)

How can anyone not see this is happening right before our very eyes.

It isn’t Donald Trump who is bringing in an Orwellian future. It’s the rabid politically-correct thought police.

Where will it end?

It isn’t likely to end with the removal of icons related to the Civil War. Ajamu Baraka, the Green Party’s vice-presidential candidate in 2016 suggests that all memories of Trump, Washington, and Jefferson should also be erased.

If you want to remove symbols of white supremacy why are you limiting it to confederacy? Yes Trump, Jefferson & Washington must be next.

— Ajamu Baraka (@ajamubaraka) August 16, 2017

Good, bad, and ugly, this is part of our national story. Tearing down everything that was related to the sordid parts doesn’t mean that they never happened.

I strongly denounce these groups who are filled with hatred for their fellow Americans.

While I believe these historic monuments should not be destroyed, I certainly could never align myself with the neo-Nazis, the KKK, and the Alt-Right people who are protecting them, because they’re doing so out of hatred and a misplaced sense of glory. Nor would I ever align myself with the Antifa, the most ironic group ever in existence that proclaims to be against fascism but noisily and brutally stifles the First Amendment rights of those with whom they disagree.

These groups all represent what is worst about our country. Violence, vandalism, hatred, and terror are wrong, no matter who is perpetrating those acts.

In any argument, it’s always the loudest people who get heard, but that doesn’t mean they speak for everyone. We must be careful not to over-generalize when it comes to these groups.

The Alt-Right and the neo-Nazis cannot be confused with every conservative Republican out there any more than the Alt-Left and the Antifa can be confused with every liberal Democrat. All of these labels are divisive and painting everyone with a broad brush is a lazy generalization. But this isn’t what the media is telling us. Instead, the mainstream media is pouring gasoline on this fire on a daily basis and they’re polarizing our country even more.

Most of us are decent human beings who have no argument with our fellow Americans. We have a lot more in common than this noisy minority and if we could respectfully find those points of agreement, we could, perhaps, find peace amongst our neighbors once again.

I only hope that we haven’t gone so far down this road that there’s no way back.

North Korea Fires ICBM Missile; Flies 45 Minutes, Lands In Japan Waters

Perhaps sensing that Trump is rather vulnerable right now, and confirming reports from two days ago that an ICBM launch is imminent, moments ago Japan"s NHK reported that North Korea has fired "what appears to be a missile", which Kyodo has since classified as an ICBM, which landed in Japan"s exclusive economic zone. The Pentagon, as reported by Fox news, confirms that Japan has indeed launched a ballistic missile, and is assessing the results.

Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says on comments carried on TV that North Korea has again launched a missile, which may have landed in the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, confirming an earlier report by NHK which said the missile may have landed in the waters near Japan, citing Japan Coast Guard. NHK adds that Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga to give briefly shortly.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga says that the missile flew for about 45 minutes before landing in Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

According to VoA, atatement from the Dept of Defense is expected soon on the latest DPRK missile launch.

As Citi writes, the current confused US and China policy on North Korea is doing little to stem these tests. On Wednesday we reported that NKorea was preparing for another launch. Meanwhile the Washington Post reported earlier this week that NK will likely be able to produce a nuclear-capable warhead by 2018 – a full two years ahead of schedule.

USDKRW has moved by 25bps so far on this news.

Abe's Days Numbered? DB Warns Japan PM "May Be Forced Out" Leading To Spike In Yields

Almost exactly ten years ago, on September 12, 2007 Japan"s current prime minister Shinzo Abe resigned less than a year into a tenure dogged by scandals, the suicide of a minister, a raft of resignations and corruption allegations, and a humiliating election drubbing for his Liberal Democratic Party. Never one to shrink away from resposibility, Abe blamed it on crippling diarrhea:

Shinzo Abe resigned as Prime Minister, claiming that diarrhea was preventing him from carrying out his duties. The diarrhea was due to ulcerative colitis, a bowel illness caused by ulcers. Abe had suffered from this illness for decades, but after becoming Prime Minister, the stress of his job apparently made the symptoms worse.

Apparently it did not prevent him from taking on the job again some five years later, when he was reinserted in the prime ministerial position again, largely as a smokescreen meant to keep the government together as BOJ"s then-new governor Haruhiko Kuroda unleashed the greatest "wealth creation" and bond monetization experiment in the history of Japan, which has culminated with the Japanese central bank owning nearly 100% of Japan"s GDP in Japanese Government Bonds.

Unfortunately for Abe, it may be time to buy Imodium again.

As Deutsche Bank reports, following a fresh series of political scandals, the Abe cabinet"s approval ratings have kept falling and are now in the sub-40% "danger zone" and as DB"s Makoto Yamashita writes, it is now starting to look as though Prime Minister Shinzo Abe might be forced out of office until the Liberal  Democratic Party leadership race scheduled for September 2018, "in which case JGB yields might be at risk of climbing quite significantly."

Ironically, in many ways this mirrors Abe"s first fall from grace. This is what the Economist wrote some ten years ago:

"Mr Abe"s government was initially very popular. Yet the tide in Mr Abe"s affairs only ebbed. True, early on he made a notable opening towards China, with whom relations had been strained under Mr Koizumi. Other than that, Mr Abe proved unable to impose discipline upon a cabinet of the corrupt and incompetent. Worse, he had a tin ear for the political mood. Voters, it had turned out, had been beguiled more by Mr Koizumi the messenger than by his message of structural reform, which entailed pain and uncertainty, notably in Japan"s rural regions and among the old. Mr Abe failed to address these concerns."

This time around, the reason for the German bank"s dour outlook is because sub-40% approval ratings have almost invariably triggered changes of leadership around one year later over the past two decades and have always resulted in significant national election defeats.

"We will thus be watching quite closely to see whether Abe"s upcoming cabinet reshuffle proves successful in regaining the 40% level. Given that this political risk is a yen-specific factor, it should be sufficient to buy foreign bonds as a hedge against the possibility of a "risk off" decline in interest rates."

And since the financial world is far more interested in the implications of Abe"s departure on JGBs than his actual political fate, here is the background: while the BOJ has once again proved successful in curbing upward pressure on the 10y JGB yield by conducting a fixed-rate operation, it continues to buy more 5y–10y JGBs than are being issued each month and is thus likely to reduce its purchases when yields are declining. Moreover, the BOJ has this month left its offer amounts in the super-long sector unchanged (at least to this point) despite yields having climbed quite considerably. The central bank thus appears willing to tolerate steepening of the >10y curve, which may suggest that a "shock" political event like an Abe resignation may lead to an accelerated selloff off the longest-dated Japanese bonds.

As for Abe"s fate, here are the details:

Abe cabinet"s approval ratings already in dangerous territory:  the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on July 10 that the Abe cabinet"s approval rating had fallen 13%pt from its previous survey to 36%, while other polls have shown a 5%pt decline to 33% (Asahi) and a 13%pt decline to 35% (NHK). An approval rating of 40% or higher is generally considered necessary for a prime minister to remain in office. The Yomiuri Shimbun also reported a 10% decline in the Liberal Democratic Party"s approval rating to 31%, a 1%pt decline for the Democratic Party to just 6%, and a 7%pt increase for independents to 47%. Some have suggested that  Prime Minister Shinzo Abe might still be "safe" for want of opposition, but past experience indicates that might not necessarily be the case.

And, as Deutsche Bank warns, it is now beginning to look as though Abe might be forced out of office prior to the LDP leadership race scheduled for September 2018. Here"s why:

For starters, no administration since 1997 has survived for more than a year after recording sub-40% cabinet approval ratings in consecutive months, although Keizo Obuchi should probably be considered an exception given that his cabinet"s approval rating had improved from 25% initially to 40% by the time he was forced to stand down due to the abovementioned diarrhea. Only Junichiro Koizumi served out his full term, having consistently maintained approval ratings above 40%. It is possible that Abe will redeem himself with his upcoming cabinet reshuffle, but failure to regain the 40% level would almost certainly point to a change of prime minister before the end of 2018 if past experience is any guide.

Second, the next lower house election needs to be called by December 2018, and it is important to note that each upper or lower house election since 2003 contested with a sub-40% cabinet approval rating has resulted in defeat for the incumbent party (chart below), with changes of government occurring after Abe"s July 2007 upper house election defeat, Taro Aso"s August 2009 lower house defeat, and Yoshihiko Noda"s December 2012 lower house defeat. The next LDP leadership race is scheduled for September 2018, and it seems highly unlikely that party members would throw their support behind someone with a sub-40% cabinet approval ratings. The lack of unified opposition is indeed a significant difference from the past, but it is quite conceivable that independents will have combined forces to establish a new party by the end of this year or soon thereafter.

Third, Abe will struggle to proceed with his attempt to revise the Constitution if his approval rating remains so low. Even if the necessary two-thirds majority can be secured in the Diet, it is difficult to envisage 50% support in a national referendum. There does not currently appear to be any headroom to use fiscal or monetary policy to boost the government"s popularity, with the Abe administration having already compiled a roughly JPY28.1 trillion "Economic Stimulus Package for Realizing Investment for the Future" under the second FY2016 supplementary budget. Some market participants appear to believe that further pump-priming could be on the cards, but recent experience has in any case demonstrated that even that might not be enough to win back the support of voters.

Fourth, while markets may be finding it difficult to envisage a post-Abe government, Kyodo recently claimed that Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida intends to stand down around the time of the cabinet reshuffle (although we are as yet unsure as to the accuracy or veracity of this report). Kishida heads a faction thought to consist of around 46 LDP lawmakers (chart below)). This faction has its origins in the Kochi Kai launched by then Prime Minister Hayato Ikeda back in 1957, and is thought to be more dovish than Abe with regard to matters of diplomacy or the possibility of constitutional reform. Kishida is believed to have reiterated on June 28 that he remains reluctant to revise war-renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution, and Finance Minister Taro Aso might also emerge as a contender now that he is effectively heading the LDP"s  second largest faction. As a result, expect talk of a successor to Abe to heat up unless the upcoming cabinet reshuffle does prove successful in reversing recent declines in popularity.

Finally, here"s why the above matters for Japanese risk assets, from Deutsche Bank:

We have been stressing the potential for political risk to drive JPY rates higher for several weeks now, but have yet to see this possibility priced into the market. This is somewhat puzzling given that the demise of Abe would almost certain have ramifications for the BOJ (with Abe having been such a strong support of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda). The current climate of low bond market volatility thus looks likely to come to an end sooner rather than later. Weak inflation has of course helped to keep JPY rates anchored, but that might not be enough if political instability does develop into a major market theme. We will therefore be  keeping a close eye on poll results following Abe"s upcoming cabinet reshuffle. 

And for those who are seeking a pair-trade variant to a long position in govvies elsewhere, DB recommends shorting Japan dur to said rising Abe risk:

Given that this political risk is a yen-specific factor, it should be sufficient to buy foreign bonds as a hedge against the possibility of a (global) "risk off" decline in interest rates (including super-long JGB yields).

As for Abe"s life after resigning - for the second time, - we are confident he will be fine following a few unpleasant run-ins, pardon the pun, with the bathroom which will once again be scapegoated for his failures, and several Imodium prescriptions. Who knows, after Japan"s economy crashes for a few more years, we may just see the third coming of prime minister Abe to serve as the smokescreen to the BOJ one last time, which at that point will be forced to buy, well, everything to keep the market from imploding.

More Arrests Of Libertarian Mises Activists By Cuban Police

Authored by Zach Foster via The Mises Institute,

Seven Cuban libertarians and activists with the Mises-Mambi Institute of Cuba were arrested on Friday morning.

Among those arrested were president Caridad Ramirez, national spokesman Nelson Rodriguez Chartrand, and Alexis Muñoz Jimenez , the Mises-Mambi regional president for Camaguey province.  The motivation of the mass arrest seems to be to prevent the Cuban libertarians from attending the trial of imprisoned Mises activists Ubaldo Herrera and Manuel Velazquez.

According to organization members, Caridad and the other activists awoke to find the police surrounding their private home which serves as the Mises-Mambi Institute headquarters.  The police also surrounded the headquarters in Camaguey province, arresting anyone who left the buildings or tried to approach.

All seven people detained were arrested specifically for attempting to attend the trial of Ubaldo and Manuel.

Libertarian protest in Havana: "DON"T SEND MORE OF OUR TROOPS TO DIE IN VENEZUELA!" and "FREEDOM FOR UBALDO AND MANUEL!"

Ubaldo and Manuel were arrested by State Security and the National Revolutionary Police under the false charge of attempted assault of a police officer.  They have been languishing in conditions unfit for humanity at the Melena del Sur labor prison.  Their trial began today with the stakes being at least 1 charge of distributing enemy propaganda, and a hard labor prison sentence of up to 7 years.

By Friday night, five of the seven detained libertarians had been released.  Miguel Lopez Santos and Israel Reyes Montero are still in custody in Havana.

Despite escalating action by the Cuban government, the Mises-Mambi Institute will be publishing a brand-new Spanish translation of some of Rothbard’s work later this summer.  It’ll be the first of a line of unique and original books from the Mises-Mambi Institute, proudly continuing the work of Mises and Rothbard right under Raul Castro’s nose.

Abe "Plunges Into Crisis" After LDP Suffers "Historic Defeat" In Tokyo Elections, USDJPY Slides

On Sunday Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party suffered what Reuters called a "historic defeat" in the Tokyo assembly election, and "plunged into a crisis" after losing to an upstart outfit in an vote that is seen as a harbinger for Japan"s national elections, and signaling trouble ahead for the premier who has suffered from slumping support after a series of political scandals.

"We must recognize this as an historic defeat," former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba was quoted by NHK as saying. "Rather than a victory for Tokyo Citizens First, this is a defeat for the LDP," said Ishiba, who is widely seen as an Abe rival within the ruling party.

"We must accept the results humbly," said Hakubun Shimomura, a close Abe ally and head of the LDP"s Tokyo chapter. "The voters have handed down an extremely severe verdict."

According to Bloomberg, the ruling LDP party was projected to win its lowest number of seats ever in the capital, a crushing blow for Abe, which sent the USDJPY sliding after suddenly the very fate of Abenomics is in question, as past Tokyo elections have been bellwethers for national trends. A 2009 Tokyo poll in which the LDP won just 38 seats was followed by its defeat in a general election that year, although this time no lower house poll need be held until late 2018.

Tokyo Governor and head of Tokyo Citizens First party Yuriko Koike

As Reuters adds, the Tokyo Metropolitan assembly election was a referendum on Governor Yuriko Koike"s year in office, but the dismal showing for Abe"s party is also a stinging rebuke of his 4-1/2-year-old administration. Koike"s Tokyo Citizens First party and its allies were on track for between 73 to 85 seats in the 127-seat assembly, according to NHK TV exit polls. Later vote counts showed the LDP was certain to post its worst-ever result, winning at most 37 seats compared with 57 before the election, NHK said, while Koike"s party and allies were assured a majority.

Koike, a media-savvy ex-defense minister and former LDP member, took office a year ago as the first female governor in the capital, defying the local LDP chapter to run and promising to reform governance of a megacity with a population of 13.7 million and an economy bigger than Holland"s.

Among her allies is the Komeito party, the LDP"s national coalition partner.

"I am excited but at the same time, I am also keenly aware of the weight of my responsibility," Koike told NHK, adding the results had exceeded her expectations.

It was not immediately clear how the LDP"s loss would alter Japan"s political landscape: according to Japanese press, the strong showing by Koike"s party will fuel speculation that she will make a bid for the nation"s top job, though that may not be until after the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. It could also widen cracks between the LDP and the Komeito while damaging prospects for the opposition Democratic Party.

What is more troubling for the Yen and global capital markets, is that Abe"s rivals in his party could be encouraged by the LDP"s dismal performance to challenge him in a leadership race in September 2018, victory in which would set Abe on course to become Japan"s longest-serving leader and bolster his hopes of revising the post-war, pacifist constitution.

Meanwhile, according to Gerry Curtis, professor emeritus at Columbia University, Japan’s political landscape could be set for a shake-up.

"We may discover that Japan is not all that different from Britain, France, and the U.S. in its ability to produce a big political surprise," he said, referring to recent elections in those countries.

The LDP"s thrashing could also make it harder for Abe to pursue his cherished goal of revising the U.S.-drafted constitution"s pacifist Article 9 by 2020, a politically divisive agenda, said Sophia University professor Koichi Nakano.

"His prime motive to stay in power is his desire to revise the constitution, but once his popularity really starts to fall, that becomes very difficult to do," Nakano said.

Having been hit by a wave of favoritism scandals in recent months, Abe"s the most recent troubles center on concern he may have intervened to help Kake Gakuen (Kake Educational Institution), whose director, Kotaro Kake, is a friend, win approval for a veterinary school in a special economic zone. As noted here previously, Abe got in trouble because the government has not granted such an approval in decades due to a perceived glut of veterinarians. Abe and his aides have denied doing Kake any favors.

But potentially more devastating - according to Reuters  - is "the impression among many voters that Abe and his inner circle have grown arrogant." Perhaps it is because instructing your central banker to monetize all your GDP in debt, and boost the stock market takes some serious skills?

Meanwhile, the scapegoating process is being prepared: Abe is expected to reshuffle his cabinet in coming months in an effort to repair his damaged ratings, a step often taken by beleaguered leaders but one that can backfired if novice ministers become embroiled in scandals or commit gaffes. Among those many political insiders expect to be replaced is Defense Minister Tomomi Inada. Inada"s remark during the Tokyo campaign seeking voter support in the name of the Self-Defense Forces, as the military is known, came under heavy fire. By law, the military is required to be politically neutral.

In a kneejerk response, the USD/JPY fell as much as 0.4% to 111.90 in early Asia trading Monday in the wake of the shock loss.

The reason why suddenly Japan"s political process may go under the microscope, is that if indeed the LDP and Abe are in trouble, then the future of the BOJ"s QQE (with Yield Control) are in question. This is a problem because as Deutsche Bank reported late on Friday, "[our model] highlights the relative importance of BoJ purchases to Fed and ECB. For a 100 bn in annualized purchases of each, the BoJ has been associated with a 15 bps decline in term premium, almost twice the impact of either the Fed or the ECB. While the market is rightly concerned about the extent and timing of ECB taper, the BoJ is potentially much more important to the rate outlook as it was in the middle of last year."

But maybe Abe doesn"t even need to be ousted: according to Nobuyuki Nakahara, a former BOJ board member and Abe advisor, Kuroda shouldn’t serve another term as governor of the BOJ "because the central bank will need fresh ideas as it moves toward exiting years of unprecedented monetary easing."

"An exit will surely come up within the next five years and we need someone who can prepare for it," said Nobuyuki Nakahara, a former BOJ board member.

“He will fall into inertia and struggle to come up with bold new ideas. It’s the same in the private sector when a corporate president stays too long," he said.

With everyone expecting a political black swan to emerge out of Europe at the start of the year - only for all concerns to be laid to rest by the summer - could the source of 2017"s true political shock end up being Japan?

Shinzo Abe shouts "Banzai!" with members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
during the annual party convention in Tokyo

Japan's "Womenomics" Is Working Just As Well As Abenomics... Terribly

Via Japan Subculture Research Center,

Japan is getting serious about gender equality - and there were absolutely no bribes paid by Japan to win the right to host the 2020 Olympics - and the nuclear disaster at Fukushima is under control. Decide for yourself which of these three statements is the most untrue.

Womenomics was touted by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as his progressive policy to elevate the status of women in what is still a very sexist and unequal society, where women are far from being empowered. The Global Gender Gap report published last year noted that Mr. Abe and the LDP’s pledge to bridge the gender divide resulted in actually widening the gulf, with Nippon sliding down a few notches to 111th in terms of world gender equality. 

It’s hard to see women in Japan being “empowered” when they can be sexually assaulted with near impunity. The odds that their assailant will be arrested, or prosecuted are low–less than a coin toss. And if he is actually prosecuted–he can sometimes walk free, with no jail time and no criminal record,  by paying damages and saying, “I’m sorry.” It’s a situation that the Abe administration could have changed but neglected to do so, tabling newly revised criminal codes to instead focus on passing a conspiracy bill that the United Nations warns could erode civil liberties.

Of course, some would argue that “womenomics” have never been about elevating the status of women in Japan - it’s always been about keeping Japanese business thriving and hopefully encouraging woman to work - and breed. Of course, pregnancy in the workplace often is greeted with bullying from all sides. Abe’s vision of Womenomics has certainly never been about improving the lives of Japan’s single mothers, 50% of whom live in poverty. In fact, other than talking about “shining women–it’s not clear exactly what he wants for Japan’s future potential birthing machines.*

The current Minister of Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment, is of course, also a man, and also in charge of improving Japan’s birthrate. Do we need to say more?

Yes, Japan’s Prime Minister Abe and the LDP are gungho about Gender Equality. Meet Katsunobu Kato, his home page will convince you.

Recently, Bloomberg published an interview with Democratic Party leader Renho, in which she pointed out the obvious, Womenomics is all talk and no walk.

“They should be ashamed to use the word ‘Womenomics’,” Democratic Party leader Renho, the 49-year-old mother of twins, said in an interview in Tokyo late Thursday when asked about the term Abe often uses to describe his efforts. “It’s an embarrassment.”

Abe had vowed to eliminate waiting lists for childcare in a bid to draw more women into the workforce to make up for Japan’s shrinking population. He also sought to have women take 30 percent of management positions in all fields by 2020.

On both goals he’s falling well short: Japan was 111th in the World Economic Forum’s Gender Gap ranking for 2016, down 10 places on the previous year.

“About 80 percent of those who take childcare leave are women, and if they’re forced to wait for daycare, that means unemployment,” Renho said.

“You either get demoted or you give up on work. What’s womenomics about if women are being forced to make such sad choices?”

For the rest of the article, go to

Abe’s Policies Failing Women, Japan Opposition Chief Says

*Reference to women as “birthing machines” is sarcasm. We know that the LDP also thinks of women as much more than that–as potential nurses for the elderly, expert green tea brewers for the office, and caretakers of the children that they should be giving birth to right now for the greater prosperity of Japan."

Germany Sees "Overwhelming" Surge In Sales Of Hitler's Mein Kampf

After a 70-year ban, Adolf Hitler"s Nazi manifesto Mein Kampf was made available again in Germany in 2016, and as The BBC reports, the German publisher of a special annotated edition of the anti-semitic text says sales have soared since its launch a year ago.

How fortunate for governments that the people they administer don’t think.
- Adolf Hitler

As The BBC reports, about 85,000 German-language copies of the anti-Semitic Nazi manifesto have been sold.

Publisher Andreas Wirsching said "the figures overwhelmed us".

He is director of the Institute of Contemporary History (IfZ) in Munich.

At the end of January the IfZ will launch a sixth print run. The book contains critical notes by scholars.

Unlike the Nazi-era editions, the IfZ"s Mein Kampf (My Struggle) has a plain white cover - without a picture of Hitler. The swastika and other Nazi symbols are banned in Germany.

Mr Wirsching told the German news agency DPA that the IfZ was planning a shorter, French-language edition. "But two-thirds of our commentaries will be translated" for it, he said.

He said the IfZ had obtained solid legal advice before republishing the book on a limited scale. And the scholarly edition was aimed partly at pre-empting any editions put out by Nazi sympathisers.

"It would be irresponsible to just let this text spread arbitrarily," he told DPA.

But, as Mike Krieger noted previously, sales of Hitler"s manifesto have been soaring worldwide for the last few years. At this point, we’d like to remain hopeful that these sales trends spring from a similar curiosity on behalf of the population, rather than from a darker more hateful place. From Time:

The infamous manifesto Adolf Hitler wrote while in prison after a failed coup in 1923, Mein Kampf or My Struggle, in which the dictator outlined his idea of a global Jewish conspiracy, is a surprise hit on the ebook market. While the book’s print copy sales remain stagnant, the ebook is in the top 20 on iTunes’s Politics & Events chart, next to books by Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, the number one Propaganda & Political Psychology book on Amazon, and the 17th bestseller in the company’s Nationalism list. How could that be?

Chris Faraone explains why in a fascinating essaythat argues ebooks provide the perfect format for reading controversial material. “Mein Kampf could be following a similar trend to that of smut and romance novels,” Faraone writes. Customers may have not wanted to be seen reading the book or having it on their shelf at home, but the cheap digital copies “can be quietly perused then dropped into a folder or deleted.”

Ebook reviewers’ comments support the 50 Shades of Grey theory. “I think I waited 45 years to read Hitler’s words… I wish I had read it sooner,” wrote Steven Wagg. “Curiosity killed me to get this book,” said another reviewer. The document also functions as a warning: “People need to understand that if we do not learn from people like this, then we will fall into their traps again,” Ray D’Aguanno wrote on Amazon.

Ronald Lauder, president of the World Jewish Congress, says it ""would be best to leave "Mein Kampf" where it belongs: the poison cabinet of history."" ""Unlike other works that truly deserve to be republished as annotated editions, "Mein Kampf" does not,"" he adds.