Fourth Turning"s Neil Howe: Why Millennials Aren"t So Unique

Authored by Marianne Brunet via AdvisorPerspectives.com,

The conventional wisdom is that Millennials are a generation with unique needs and buying habits, but Neil Howe says that they are very similar to the Greatest Generation.

Howe, who coined the term “Millennial,” says that both generations are highly risk-averse, a characteristic brought on by their shared parenting environment.

In a talk last week, Howe explained how we can use generational patterns and historical economic trends to better understand the future of the global economy.

He also cautioned investors about the impact global aging trends will have on future economic development and financial market conditions.

Howe spoke on November 2 at a National Association for Business Economics luncheon in Boston.

He is an authority on social change in America, and an acclaimed bestselling author. He is also a leading researcher at Hedgeye Risk Management and a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

How aging populations will impact the fiscal future

Howe has spent his career researching demography within the context of economic history. But in his talk last week, he revealed that he recently shifted his focus to a new area of study.

“Political demography is a whole new budding field,” Howe said. “And it will never go away, not for the rest of our lifetimes.”

According to Howe, “Political demography is premised on the fact that in the next century, we are going to see a greater divergence of demographic trajectories, more than we’ve ever seen before in human history.”

This divergence is based on two global aging trends.

On the one hand, “there are places in the world today whose demographics are essentially the same as in pre-modern times,” Howe said. “These are high-mortality, high-fertility societies – I’m talking about a lot of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.”

“And then you have other areas of the world with extreme low-fertility and low morality societies,” Howe explained.

“Look at South Korea,” Howe said. “According to the United Nations constant-fertility scenario, by the year 2035 there will be more people turning age 90 every year than being born every year.”

“We’ve never in human history seen this situation amongst different societies around the world,” according to Howe.

This divergence will undoubtedly drive significant changes in the future global economic landscape. “What are the implications for the direction of capital flows? What are the implications for labor productivity and competitiveness?” Howe asked.

He urged economists to consider societies whose working-age population is shrinking. “Every year their normal growth is declining faster than their normal productivity is growing,” he said. “Which means that even in a ‘normal’ non-recession year, they have negative GDP growth.”

“What’s the impact on investment, savings and competitiveness?” Howe asked rhetorically.

Howe theorized that one possible response to a decline in economic growth driven by shrinking population is for nations to become much more anti-competitive.

He predicted that nations “will actually move towards cartelizing market and carving them up, rather than competing.”

As a historical example of this sociological response to a loss in competitiveness, Howe pointed to the 1930s, “a decade of cartels and measures to keep productive institutions going.”

Howe highlighted one concern in particular – the future global standing of developed nations with demographic concerns.

“There’s a lot there, not just in terms of its impact on the economy, but demography’s impact on geopolitics,” Howe said.

 

“What happens to societies whose populations are declining every year versus those that are rising? Does this impact geopolitics and does it have to do with the rise and fall of empires?”

Circling back to the example of the 1930s, Howe highlighted that declines in the competitiveness of certain nations has marked historic global shifts. He explained that Britain, which had been a super-power on the international stage, experienced a dramatic shift in its economic and geopolitical standing culminating in World War II.

Part of Howe’s research has focused on measuring risk and publishing aging vulnerability indices. This tool can be used to consider “the affordability and sustainability of pension funds around the world,” according to Howe.

“In the late 1990s, one of our big stories was on Australia,” he said. “Australia always got ‘first place’ because it has the mandatory superannuation fund,” he explained, “a required defined-contribution plan, which is fueling tremendous savings in Australia.”

“Perhaps not coincidentally, Australia is the only country that has had no recession over the last 25 years,” Howe said with a smirk.

How generations impact economic development

Howe focused his presentation on how population growth rates will drive change in the global economy. However, he also spoke about another demographic factor that will significantly impact the future of international markets – generational shifts.

According to Howe, to consider the future of the global economy, we also need to understand “differences in how generations think and the strengths they bring to political power.”

Howe’s research has focused on the archetypal differences between generations, and what they bring to the table.

“What we found was that each generation looks at the world differently even though they experience many of the same events, because of course they had a different location in history.”

Howe used Boomers and their parents to explain this in a real-world context. “We had Woodstock, they had D-day,” Howe said.

Boomers prided themselves on how different they were from than parents. “They were building battleships, while we were discovering ourselves,” he added comically.

They prided themselves on having differing perspectives, but Boomers eventually went on to occupy the same societal roles as their parents, just at different points in history and with different views.

“Looking generationally at social change allows you to see into the future in a way that a lot of people don’t appreciate,” according to Howe.

“No one applies this perspective,” according to Howe.

“For instance, if I go into a consumer retail company that sells cosmetics to people in their forties and ask them about their future market,” Howe said, “They will tell me: ‘I know everything about 40-year olds, we know everything about them, we studied 40-year olds throughout history and we just extrapolate that forward’.”

But Howe argues this is the wrong approach. “I would look at today’s 20- and 30-year olds instead,” Howe said.

With this approach as a basis for his analysis, Howe went on to discuss the future of the American economy.

Howe explained that we can use the traits of generations to understand how they will lead when they occupy influential societal roles. According to Howe, we can understand the traits of Millennials as a generation by examining the impact their parents had on them during their formative years.

For instance, according to Howe, because Millennials were sheltered by their parents they are now very risk-averse.

Are Millennials like the G.I. Generation?

In his research, Howe found that there are predictable cycles when generational personalities oppose their immediate predecessors, but share significant traits with groups they may never meet.

That is, although both Millennials and Boomers don’t share traits with their parents, they do resemble other previous generations.

“When people ask me to draw parallels like ‘what decade does this last decade most resemble?’” Howe said, “I tell them the 30s.”

According to Howe, we can predict trends about the future of the Millennial generation by examining the G.I. generation (also known as The Greatest Generation), which is made up of people born between 1900 and the mid-1920s.

Both the Millennial and G.I. generations grew up with similar parenting and similar historical conditions, according to Howe.

In terms of social and cultural similarities, “One of the trends we saw in the 1930s was declining fertility, a rise in multi-generational households, a decline in home ownership and a decline in youth violence,” according to Howe.

He urged economists to compare that to today’s environment and Millennial behavior.

“I would argue that in the last 10 years we have seen a personal turning away in risk-taking,” Howe said. “If you look at 200 youth-risk indicators the CDC keeps, almost all of them are hugely down.”

According to Howe, this is because “their parents assured them from the time they were born they were special, that they’re precious to the world, and that they should take care of themselves.”

“This is why this generation does not take risks,” Howe argued, “Why they’re not starting business, why they think stocks are really dangerous things.”

He went on to explain how this risk-averse mentality emerged for both the G.I. and Millennial generations from an economic perspective.

“Both the current generation and the G.I. generation grew in the shadow of a massive financial crisis,” Howe explained.

 

“Both have been characterized by a disappointing employment of labor and capital, low standard of living gains, low productivity growth, negative real interest rates, the failure of monetary policy and competitive devaluation.”

Looking forward, Howe inferred, much like the G.I.’s, Millennials will have to deal with a great conflict, but theirs will be a culture war.

Millennials Head One-Third Of All Poverty-Stricken U.S. Households (The Rest Live With Mom)

Millennials just can"t catch a break.  Despite being the most educated generation ever to walk the face of the planet, at least according to their tuition bills paid by mom and dad, a staggering number of them now head households living below the poverty line...and that excludes the ones forced to live at home with mom and dad.

According to a recent note published by the Pew Research Center, Millenials now head more households living below the poverty line than any other generation and, in aggregate, represent nearly one-third of all impoverished households in the United States. 

More Millennial households are in poverty than households headed by any other generation. In 2016, an estimated 5.3 million of the nearly 17 million U.S. households living in poverty were headed by a Millennial, compared with 4.2 million headed by a Gen Xer and 5.0 million headed by a Baby Boomer. The relatively high number of Millennial households in poverty partly reflects the fact that the poverty rate among households headed by a young adult has been rising over the past half century while dramatically declining among households headed by those 65 and older.

Of course, that"s all despite the fact that they only head just over 20% of all households...

Millennials are the largest living generation by population size (79.8 million in 2016), but they trail Baby Boomers and Generation Xers when it comes to the number of households they head. Many Millennials still live under their parents’ roof or are in a college dorm or some other shared living situation. As of 2016, Millennials (ages 18 to 35 in 2016) headed only 28 million households, many fewer than were headed by Generation X (ages 36 to 51 in 2016) or Baby Boomers (ages 52 to 70).

Of course, those aren"t the only stats that prove just how much those anthropology degrees are paying off...Millennials are also winning at the "cohabiting-couple" game...presumably because it takes a village of millennials to cover one monthly rent bill.

Meanwhile, for the first time in history, more young adults today are living at home with mom and dad than with a spouse.

Conclusion:

"Dirty, Difficult, And Dangerous": Why Millennials Won't Work In Oil

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Like many industries today, the oil industry is trying to sell its many job opportunities to the fastest growing portion of the global workforce: Millennials. But unlike any other industry, oil and gas is facing more challenges in persuading the environmentally-conscious Millennials that oil is “cool”.  

During the Super Bowl earlier this year, the American Petroleum Institute (API) launched an ad geared toward Millennials, who now make up the largest generation in the U.S. labor force.   

“This ain’t your daddy’s oil”, the ad says, in what API described as “a modern look at how oil is integrated into products consumers use now and in the future supported by bold visuals.”  

Despite its pitch to speak the Millennials’ language and reach out to the elusive generation, the ad sparked anger with many consumers and viewers.

Millennials continue to have the most negative opinion toward the oil industry compared to all other industries, and they don’t see a career in oil and gas as their top choice of a workplace. The oil industry’s talent scouting and recruiting methods of the past are failing to reach Millennials, who want their work to have a positive impact on society, various studies and polls have found—a rather big ask for the oil industry.

This failure to reach the group that makes up the largest portion of today’s workforce—which now surpasses Generation X—points to a huge problem for the oil sector, as Baby Boomers move into retirement in droves.

Not only are Millennials snubbing oil and gas because of its negative image, they also seek different job perks than previous generations sought, and in this regard, the oil industry will need to do more as it becomes increasingly obvious that Millennials want different things than what oil executives think they want. 

A total of 14 percent of Millennials say they would not want to work in the oil and gas industry because of its negative image—the highest percentage of any industry, McKinsey said in September 2016.

Young people see the industry as dirty, difficult, and dangerous, according to an EY survey published last month. EY’s survey polled Millennials—the 20-to-35-year-olds today—as well as Generation Z coming after them, and found that younger generations “question the longevity of the industry as they view natural gas and oil as their parents’ fuels. Further, they primarily see the industry’s careers as unstable, blue-collar, difficult, dangerous and harmful to society.”

In addition, two out of three teens believe the oil and gas industry causes problems rather than solves them, the survey showed.

So ‘not your daddy’s oil’ is not sinking in with Millennials and Generation Z, and with many of them, it never will, despite the oil lobbies’ marketing efforts to try to make it sound like an attractive career path.

According to executives polled by EY, the top three drivers for young people would be salary (72 percent), opportunity to use the latest technology (43 percent), and a good work-life balance (38 percent). But young people—although they are also prioritizing salary—have other views on what they look for in a job. Salary is still the top priority at 56 percent, but a close second comes good work-life balance (49 percent), with job stability and on-the-job happiness equally important at 37 percent.

Executives are underestimating the importance of work-life balance and stability for Millennials, while overestimating the allure of technology as a factor. It’s not surprising that Millennials are not as attracted to the opportunity to use new tech as oil executives believe they are – Millennials generally don’t see technology as a perk, they take it for granted.

Moreover, Millennials don’t see the oil and gas industry as innovative – a major driver of career choice among this generation. According to a recent report by Accenture, “Despite evidence to the contrary, many Millennials believe the sector is lacking innovation, agility and creativity, as well as opportunities to engage in meaningful work. In fact, only 2 percent of U.S. college graduates consider the oil and gas industry their top choice for employment.”

Accenture is warning that ‘the talent well has run dry’ and said:

“We believe the growing workforce deficit will, in fact, be a greater barrier to oil and gas companies’ upturn success than any deficits that might exist in capital, equipment or supplies.”  

The oil   and gas industry is losing the competition for talent recruitment to industries that are more appealing to Millennials, and U.S. oil and gas firms will face the talent crunch first, according to Accenture.

“Any mature industry has to think about the fact that there’s a new sheriff in town with new values, new spending habits,” Jeff Fromm, an expert in marketing to American Millennials, told Bloomberg.

And if the oil and gas industry wants to get this ‘new sheriff in town’ on board, it needs to profoundly change recruitment strategies and talent sourcing. But with the negative image that is probably set to become even more negative—despite oil organizations’ marketing efforts—oil and gas has a huge workforce problem looming.

Golden Years... Or Tears: More US Seniors Are Still Working Than At Any Time Since The '60s

Long walks on the beach, holding hands in a hottub overlooking the ocean, working on your golf game...in Hawaii, treating the kids and grandkids to treats and trips - we have all seen the commercials of how great "retirement" can be (or could have been), if you just put a little more money into the stock market via your friendly local asset gatherer.

Well, sad to say, as Bloomberg reports, more and more Americans are spending their golden years on the job.

Almost 19 percent of people 65 or older were working at least part-time in the second quarter of 2017, according to the U.S. jobs report released on Friday. The age group’s employment/population ratio hasn’t been higher in 55 years, before American retirees won better health care and Social Security benefits starting in the late 1960s.

And the trend looks likely to continue. Millennials, prepare yourselves.

Older Americans are working more even as those under 65 are working less, a trend that the Bureau of Labor Statistics expects to continue. By 2024, 36 percent of 65- to 69-year-olds will be active participants in the labor market, the BLS says. That’s up from just 22 percent in 1994.

A number of factors are keeping older Americans in the workforce. Many are healthier and living longer than previous generations. Some decide not to fully retire because they enjoy their jobs or just want to stay active and alert.

Others need the money. One glance at the chart above may help indicate one big driver of pain - notice that as each major market crash occurs, the prime-working-age cohort and the senior-generation cohort inflects and diverges, as the wealthier, older generation comes face to face with reality as their long-term savings are decimated by reality stepping into stock markets.

The share of older people in the workforce is higher than at any point since before the creation of Medicare. Even more older Americans might be out there working, though, if they were healthier and had better job prospects.

And it"s not just Americans that are "not" living-the-dream they were sold by various asset managers...

Around the globe, workers of all ages are moving their retirement goals later and later in life.

If Yellen will just keep the dream alive for another 30 years then the enitre boomer generation can retire wealthy... right?

'Generation Z' Are Nothing Like Millennials, Professor Warns Liberals

Authored by Dan Jackson via CampusReform.org,

A political science professor in Pennsylvania says Democrats need to worry, because the generation replacing their millennial allies on college campuses has a distinct libertarian streak.

Jeff Brauer, a professor at Keystone College, has been gathering data on “Generation Z,” and recently told The New York Post that he expects the rising generation of college students to differ markedly from those currently dominating campus culture.

“Politically, Generation Z is liberal-moderate with social issues, like support for marriage equality and civil rights, and moderate-conservative with fiscal and security issues,” Brauer said.

“While many are not connected to the two major parties and lean independent, Gen Z’s inclinations generally fit moderate Republicans.”

Notably, Brauer’s research has indicated that growing up in an age of constant terror threats, school shootings, and economic instability has led Gen Z to prize economic stability and security more highly than millennials.

“Pollsters need to pay attention to Gen Z. People and politicians need to recognize that they aren’t millennials and shouldn"t be lumped in,” Brauer told Campus Reform, noting that “there was virtually no attention paid to this demographic” in 2016, even though it was the first presidential election in which Gen Z had the ability to vote.

“Democratic candidates lost five percent of the youth vote nationally (down from 60 percent to 55 percent),” Brauer pointed out. “In Florida, Democrats’ margin of victory among the young dropped 16 percentage points. In both Ohio and Pennsylvania, the drop was 19 points. In Wisconsin, 20 points.”

Brauer believes that this is indicative of more than a one-time phenomenon, saying “it is much more likely the precipitous drops were due to the more conservative Generation Z being able, for the first time, to express their political inclinations, especially in the economically hard-hit swing states.”

These findings could give Republicans hope for capturing a larger share of the youth vote in future elections, but Brauer cautions that while Generation Z will likely be more conservative than Millennials, they will not actively seek out the GOP unless the Party takes steps to conform to their more-moderate social views, and could be driven away by a significant rightward lurch.

“This generation is different, and they are about to have a profound impact on commerce, politics, and trends,” Brauer said.

“If politicians and business leaders aren’t paying attention yet, they better, because they are about to change the world.”

Brauer cautioned that his work remains unfinished, saying he hopes to continue collecting data over the course of the next few election cycles in order to come up with even more definitive conclusions regarding Generation Z.

Millennials Choose To Spend Money On Travel, Dining, And Fitness Than Save For Retirement: Survey

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of Convergex

Millennials save more of their income than older generations. Don’t believe it? Look at a recent survey by Merrill Edge, which found millennials say they save 36% more than their general population counterparts report as over a third stash away more than 20% of their salary per year.

As for what they’re saving for, that’s another story. Whereas baby boomers save for retirement, millennials want financial freedom and save for a desired lifestyle rather than exiting the workforce. Millennials would rather spend money on travel, dining, and fitness than save for their financial future. They are also more focused on certain milestones like landing their dream job or traveling the world, and are less worried about getting married or having kids. Bottom line, millennials are saving, just for shorter-term goals as compared to their parents.

Where were you thirty years ago? My parents and many of our readers likely remember the stock market’s ascension to record highs before the sudden crash of 1987. A few decades later the capital market is back to flirting with another peak, but the loss-averse nature of people leaves past financial crises clearly imprinted into memory.

The Atlantic put together 41 pictures for a glimpse into 1987 that captured a wide variety of figures and events during that year. One such portrait included passengers on the F train in New York reading the newspaper after “Black Monday.” The front cover of the New York Post read “Wall St. Bloodbath” in huge bold letters and “Panic selling sweeps market: P.5” at the bottom of the page. Six clocks sat between the two texts, reflecting the event’s global reach.

Here are some other descriptions of pictures from that time to highlight just how different our world is three decades on:

• Now-President-but-then-private-citizen Donald Trump greets Liza Minelli backstage at Carnegie Hall, along with his then wife Ivana Trump, and Henry and Nancy Kissinger. Fast forward 30 years (almost to the month) and likely much to his disbelief at that time he’s currently representing the free world by traveling abroad and meeting with foreign leaders. Far cry from real estate deals, that.


• The vice president of marketing for Compaq Computer Corporation shows off the new Compaq Portable III at the Mark Hellinger Theater in New York, which weighs just 18 pounds so that it’s easy (!) to carry. Now not only our computer but phone capabilities rest in just one device and fit right in our pockets, with the iPhone 7 weighing as light as between 5 to 7 ounces.


• Then First Lady Nancy Reagan watches an anti-drug musical, Just Say No, at a high school in Alexandria, Virginia. Tough to imagine now about two-thirds of Americans live in a state where some form of marijuana is legal. The momentum continues in that direction as well, with 60% of Americans favoring legalization of the drug according to a 2016 Gallup poll.


• About 200,000 people (according to US Park Police estimates) rally on the National Mall in support of gays and lesbians. Fast forward and we now have marriage equality.


• Bernie Sanders, then Mayor of Burlington, Vermont, records songs and a conversation about his philosophy on tape: “Sanders feels music is a powerful way to communicate with the masses.” Little did people see just how much he would connect with the masses this past presidential election, particularly among the politically hard to reach millennial cohort.


• For more photographs down memory lane, here’s a link to the article with everyone from David Bowie and Princess Diana to Pee-wee Herman and Howard Stern:

Thirty years ago, baby boomers were in their twenties and up, and now their kids’ ages span from nearly twenty to their mid-thirties. As those old photographs show, however, millennials’ experience in their twenties and thirties vastly differs from their parents socially, culturally, and economically. We therefore have different values and goals, which even extends to our financial lives.

A recent survey of over 1,000 Americans conducted from March 21st to April 5th by Merrill Edge showed a stark generational divide about different groups’ life priorities. Some of these findings may come as a surprise. Here are the results:

• Top life priorities: “millennials are the first generation to plan long-term for financial freedom instead of retirement.” Most (63%) millennials are “looking to save a set amount of money or income necessary to enjoy their desired lifestyle, compared to the majority (55%) of Gen Xers and baby boomers who are saving so they can leave the workforce.” Millennials are “significantly more likely than their older counterparts to focus on personal milestones of working at their dream job (42%, compared to 23%) and traveling the world (37%, compared to 21%).”
  
  • Additionally, “today’s 18- to 34-year-olds are also far less likely to emphasize the traditional family milestones of getting married (43%, compared to 51%) and being a parent (36%, compared to 59%).”
  
  


• Spending patterns: most millennials are more likely to spend money on “travel (81%), dining (65%) and fitness (55%) than save for their financial future.” The report attributes this to FOMO, or the “fear of missing out”.


• Savings: millennials “say they save 36% more than their generational counterparts, with more than one-third (36%) setting aside more than 20% of their salary per year.” As for overall respondents, 42% are saving less than 10% of their salary, while 7% don’t save anything.
  
  • Ironic given that Americans think the “Greatest Generation (54%) does a ‘very good’ job of saving, followed by baby boomers (45%), Gen Xers (19%) and millennials (8%).” In fact, just 15% of millennials think of themselves as good savers. So even though 45% of millennials consult their parents “always” or “often” for financial advice and think they’re better savers, it’s the opposite.
  
  


• Consequently, Americans aren’t saving enough and feel unprepared for uncertain scenarios. Most Americans “are not very confident they would be able to achieve their financial goals if they were to: get a divorce (71%), have children (64%), live to 100 years old (62%) or outlive their significant other (48%).” The problem, they are not “financially planning for these scenarios either, with only 5% saving for the possibility of divorce and 23% for the possibility of children.”
  
  • Therefore, 59% of respondents think Americans should be required to save for their own retirement, and 48% believe financial education should be required.
  
  


• Technology: Two in five Americans report “using an online or mobile portal to manage their investments.” Respondents also say using these platforms “has a positive impact that makes users feel more knowledgeable (51%), empowered (31%) and savvy (14%).” Going forward over the next decade, Americans “believe emerging technologies will allow more people to invest (41%)” and that a “majority of investments will become automated (34%), the 401(k) account will no longer be the ‘gold standard’ (29%), and the market will be dominated by women (13%).”


• As for robo advisors, one in eight (13%) Americans currently use one or would consider it in the next year. Zeroing in on millennials, however, brings this figure up to 22%.


• Link to the full report.

The upshot: whereas baby boomers save for retirement, millennials want financial freedom and save for their desired lifestyle rather than seeking to exit the workforce. Americans may view older generations as better savers, but millennials actually take the cake there. They just have different priorities that are shorter-term than their parents. Of course this could pose risks for millennials when they finally grow to their parents’ age and beyond, but this survey shows a clear way for financial professionals to best reach them: on mobile where they already give most of their attention, and addressing their unique take on life goals.

In Which States Do Most Millennials Live With Their Parents?

Just a few short decades ago America"s youth was highly encouraged by eager parents to become self-sufficient by the ripe old age of 18.  Today, the mere suggestion of such a thing could land unsuspecting parents in prison for "triggering" their offspring with malicious "hate speech."

And, as a new study from the Census Bureau points out today, the changing dynamics are readily apparent in the latest household survey data which shows that more millennials are living at home with mom today than any other living arrangement.  Here are some of the key takeaways:

• More young people today live in their parents’ home than in any other arrangement: 1 in 3 young people, or about 24 million 18- to 34-year-olds, lived in their parents’ home in 2015.


• In 2005, the majority of young adults lived independently in their own household, which was the predominant living arrangement in 35 states. A decade later, by 2015, the number of states where the majority of young people lived independently fell to just six.


• Most of today’s Americans believe that educational and economic accomplishments are extremely important milestones of adulthood. In contrast, marriage and parenthood rank low: over half of Americans believe that marrying and having children are not very important in order to become an adult.


• Young people are delaying marriage, but most still eventually tie the knot. In the 1970s, 8 in 10 people married by the time they turned 30. Today, not until the age of 45 have 8 in 10 people married.


• More young men are falling to the bottom of the income ladder. In 1975, only 25 percent of men, aged 25 to 34, had incomes of less than $30,000 per year. By 2016, that share rose to 41 percent of young men. (Incomes for both years are in 2015 dollars.)


• Between 1975 and 2016, the share of young women who were homemakers fell from 43 percent to 14 percent of all women aged 25 to 34.


• Of young people living in their parents’ home, 1 in 4 are idle, that is they neither go to school nor work. This figure represents about 2.2 million 25- to 34-year-olds.

To our complete "shock", parents living in liberal states like NJ, CT, NY and CA were most likely to provide "safe spaces" for their unemployed millennials to play video games.  In fact, 7 out of the top 10 states where the most millennials live at home were liberal...and 11 out of the top 15.

And while the number of millennials living at home with mom continues to surge, 1 out of 4 of them are neither enrolled in school or working.

It is easy to think of young people living in their parents’ home as a homogeneous group, as though they were all unemployed and dependent on their parents’ support. At 24.2 million people, the population of 18- to 34-year-olds living at home is a large and diverse group. Most of them-about 81 percent—are either working or going to school. This should not be surprising because most people aged 18 to 24 are living in their parents’ home, attending classes or working part-time. On the other hand, we might be surprised if their older peers do not contribute to the family budget because they have had more time to finish school and find a stable job. Yet, of the 8.4 million 25- to 34-year-olds living at home, about 1 in 4 are idle, meaning they are not in school and do not work.

Who are these young adults who are not in the labor force or going to school? They tend to be older millennials who are White or Black and have only a high school education, compared with their peers who are working or going to school while living at home. But they may not be idle for want of effort. They are more likely to have a child, so they may be caring for family, and over one-quarter have a disability of some kind (Table 6). That so many are disabled suggests that they have limitations in their ability to attend classes, study, find work, or keep a regular job. Recent stories on boomerang children returning home focus on economic downturns, unforgiving job markets, and high rents.30 Though often overlooked in these stories, young people’s health may play an important role in their decision to live with parents.

A bright future awaits, America.

Visualizing The Netflix Generation

Since launching in the United States in 1948, cable television quickly emerged as the media consumption method of choice for families around the world.

Cable brought to us some of the most memorable and noteworthy events in history. People saw the fall of the Berlin Wall from their living rooms in 1989 – and many even remember being inspired by Neil Armstrong taking his first steps on the moon twenty years earlier.

And although television is still a vital medium today, Visual Capitalist"s Jeff Desjardins warns that it is also stuck in an inevitable quagmire. Digital already generates more ad revenue than television, while more people switch to streaming platforms every day.

Make no mistake – even though there is still plenty of money to be made in television, cable is experiencing a slow death, just like other traditional media channels. It might not yet be reduced to the more niche territory of radio or print, but cable is treading the same path.

THE DIGITAL NATIVES

Why this is the case is very simple math.

Even just six years ago in 2011, the average 18-24 year old millennial consumed about 25 hours of traditional television per week – today, they consume closer to 14 hours.

That said, it’s no surprise that the first generation of digital natives skews heavily towards digital content, but what will be even more interesting is the behavior of the next generation on deck: Gen Z (born in 2000 and onwards). This cohort was born into a world of screens and iPhones, and will not be aware of a prior era. To them, flipping through channels on cable television seems even more antiquated and arbitrary than it does to older generations.

Gen Z watches between two and four hours of YouTube and less than an hour of traditional television per day. They’re also twice more likely to use YouTube than Millennials, and a lot less likely to use Facebook.

– Shireen Jiwan, chief brand experience officer at Lucky Brand

Less than an hour per day is not very conducive to the cable business, especially when there are hundreds of channels in existence today. And while insights on Gen Z are still fluid and evolving, it’s highly doubtful that the generation will do a 360 on video anytime soon.

In the meantime, cable’s survival as a dominant medium rests squarely on the shoulders of older generations. While it works as a business for now, cable can’t fight the demographics forever.

What Makes Millennials Disturbingly Different?

Authored by Gordon Long via MATASII,

In stealth fashion millennials are rapidly transforming society.

Something had mysteriously changed during the 2016 US Presidential primaries when an unlikely democratic candidate burst on the national scene with an unquestionable allure for the Millennial generation. How was it that a "left wing" Bernie Sanders, who was of an age that he would be considered as a very old grandfather by this young generation, could draw such rousing support? What was it about this grey haired unknown senator from Vermont who so clearly represented the expectations, aspirations and frustrations of this new "coming of age" generation?

Millennials have silently emerged as a powerful and influential force because of their size and because of how contrasting their beliefs are from versus previous generations including only slightly older Gen-X.

Millennials have surpassed Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living generation, according to population estimates recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau.  Millennials, defined as those ages 18-34 in 2015, now number 75.4 million, surpassing the 74.9 million Baby Boomers (ages 51-69) and Generation X (ages 35-50 in 2015) is projected to pass the Boomers in population by 2028.

Very importantly, the Millennial generation continues to grow as young immigrants expand its ranks which presently account for over 15% of the total.

 

What Makes Millennials Different?

The Millennial  generation grew up during an era of unprecedented changes and shocks which have profoundly influenced their views and choices:

1. Millennials are older in household formations  when they marry and have children compared to previous generations,


2. Millennials have student debt loads that define and significantly frame this generations financial choices,


3. Millennials are more educated than any previous generation as defined by percentage with undergraduate and post graduate educational attainments,


4. There is a much more foreign born component of the millennial generation at 15%, than any generation going back to the early 1900"s European immigration wave to the US,

1. Family is much more important as a result of changes in parenting since roles such as fatherhood have taken on more involvement, youth event participation and inward family cocooning. A 1997 Gallup survey found that 9 in 10 children (a population comprised entirely of Millennials that year) reported high levels of closeness with their parents and were personally happy with that relationship. Their tight relationship with their parents extends to work, where some companies report establishing relationships with parents of their Millennial employees. The Millennials’ close relationships with their parents might be related to the greater time they spent with their parents growing up. According to Pew (2014), hours spent parenting have increased for both fathers and mothers, tripling for fathers since 1985 and increasing by 60 percent for mothers. These increases have been particularly pronounced among college-educated parents, with college-educated mothers increasing their childcare time since the mid-1990s by over 9 hours per week, while less educated mothers increased their childcare time by only over 4 hours per week.

1. Millennials are much more pronounced to move to Urban centers versus being interested in Suburban living,


2. Millennial are the most technology-centric generation yet, as they came of age in  the era of the internet / smart phones and fully embraced social media to change how they communicate and socialize,


3. Millennials also came of age during developments that deeply shaped their sense and need for security.
   
   • 911 and  the emerging reality of terrorism in the US,
   
   
   • Iraq and Afghanistan Wars where fellow students fought,
   
   
   • School shootings across the nation and the security changes required,
   
   
   • Corporate Downsizing, Right-Sizing and Out-Sourcing which effected their financial security of the family,
   
   


4. The Millennial generation has a much larger sense of "entitlement" since they were often raised and educated with a sense of "you deserve" versus "you earned",
   
   • Millennials believe student loans should be forgiven and is one of the reasons Bernie Sanders was so popular,
   
   
   • Millennials are much more tolerant of others and cultural differences and react strongly to hate speech, threats and racism
   
   


5. Millennials earn 20% less than Baby Boomers did at their age.

All of these differences are now being felt as the Millennial generation becomes an increasingly larger component of the US economy.

Three Major Economic Ramifications:  My Macro Analytics Co-Host Charles Hugh-Smith believes these differences are being witnessed by the following three Economic ramifications:

1.  Urban vs. Suburban Living

The Shift:

• Millennials favor foot-traffic urban shopping/entertainment/dining districts,


• Millennials favor streets with high densities of venues, cafes, brew-pubs, etc. which are safe and close to mass transit,


• These urban districts are expanding in small cities, college towns, etc.


• The experience is as important as pricing: Millennials value convenience and a variety of experiences, not just convenience and price.


• Long commutes and suburban shopping malls are not convenient to Millennials


• Home ownership rates are falling due to the very high cost of urban-core housing,


• By choice or necessity Millennials rent rather than buy,

The Economic Ramification:

• Future Single Residential Housing Requirements may be less and housing prices exposed as Baby Boomers leave their homes for Assisted Living or Nursing Homes.


• Boomer wealth is largely tied up in costly homes--who will buy these houses as Boomers sell to downsize/retire?

2.  Auto and Light Truck Sales

The Shift:

• Millennials favor Uber and Car-sharing over auto ownership.


• Urban living and avoiding longer commutes reduces the need for auto ownership.

The Economic Ramification:

3.  Retail Shopping and Retail Commercial Real Estate

The Shift:

• Millennials favor the convenience of online shopping,


• Millennials do not find value in big suburban malls


• Millennials often work a lot of hours and don"t want to waste time commuting/driving to suburban shopping.


• Hard to beat the easy return policy of Zappos and Amazon or the value of free delivery via Amazon prime,

The Economic Ramification:

• The future of the Mall is likely limited as well as many "brick & mortar" retailers.


• America is the most highly over-stored nation in the world. Excess retailing space is a massive future problem


• Amazon has reached critical mass and as Millennials continue to dominate, online procurement and delivery will continue to accelerate.

Three Major Social Ramifications:  Though it is too certain to know for certain, indications are that there are a number of social ramifications that can be expected as a result of the advent of the Millennial Generation.

1.  Physical and Financial Security

The Shift:

• Millennials place a higher value on physical and financial security as a result of the era they grew up in,

The Social Ramification:

• Millennials will be willing political to sacrifice personal freedoms if it is perceived that it will allow government agencies to better ensure this.


• Security-Surveillance methodologies and technologies will become an increasing larger way of American life.


• Millennials are likely to be "savers" in a much larger way than the last two generations.

2.  Government Entitlements

The Shift:

• Millennials  overwhelmingly believe student loans are unjust and should be a government entitlement program.


• Existing student loans should be forgiven and paid by the government.

The Social Ramification:

• Candidates that run on a platform of student loan forgiveness will be elected.


• Candidates that run on platforms of Social Security and Medicare means testing will have wide Millennial support.


• Generally, Millennials will be more "left leaning" as demonstrated by Bernie Sanders.

3.  Less Materialistic

The Shift:

• Millennials having grown up with most of their needs being met are less inclined to seek satisfaction from materialism and pursue wealth accumulation.


• Millennials are more inclined to be motivated by notoriety & seek political influence. This stems from their roots in social media,


• This is a trend that has been seen in other countries when opportunities for wealth  creation become more restrictive.

The Social Ramification:

• Millennials will place in jeopardy the US economy being a 70% Consumption economy
  

The biggest long term ramification may be the last. The era of the US economy sustaining itself via consumption may die as the Millennials become the economy! Their motivations and expectations are completely different than any prior generation and the changes will be profound.

Charles Hugh Smith concludes that there may be a consequence which is a even bigger question.

He asks: "Can our financial system and debt-burdened economy enable the sort of life the Millennials seek, or have we run out of room to transition to a lower consumption lifestyle and still service the growing mountain of debt?"

His conclusion: "It seems to me that the Millennials will have to navigate a system re-set that few of them seem to anticipate!"

WHAT IS OFTEN DUBBED "THE SNOWFLAKE" GENERATION

Nearly Half Of Early-20s Millennials Still Get A Monthly Housing Allowance From Mom And Dad

In an age when our pampered, snowflake millennials can"t manage to engage in a simple conversation with someone holding a dissenting opinion, at least not without being "triggered" repeatedly by a barrage of "micro-aggressions", let along determine their own gender absent a pamphlet from their enabling college of choice, it should come as no surprise that nearly half of young adults between the ages of 22-24 receive monthly housing allowances from their parents. 

According to a study by Patrick Wightman of the University of Michigan, roughly 40% of millennials between the ages of 22-24 receive an average of $3,000 from their parents every year.  Per the New York Times:

According to surveys that track young people through their first decade of adulthood, about 40 percent of 22-, 23- and 24-year-olds receive some financial assistance from their parents for living expenses. Among those who get help, the average amount is about $3,000 a year.

 

It’s a stark reminder that social and economic mobility continues past grade school, high school and even college. Economic advantages continue well into the opening chapters of adulthood, a time when young people are making big personal investments that typically lead to higher incomes but can be hard to pay for.

Unsurprisingly, the frequency and amount of financial assistance varies greatly depending on each young millennial"s chosen field of study.  To our complete shock, "Art and Design" students are the most likely to require help from mommy and daddy and get $3,600, on average, each year. 

The amount of help that parents provide varies by career and geography. Among young people who aspire to have a career in art and design, 53 percent get rent money from their parents. Young people who live in urban centers are more likely to have their parents help pay the rent.

 

The choice of career path matters. Those in the art and design fields get the most help, an average of $3,600 a year. People who work in farming, construction, retail and personal services get the least.

 

Some jobs in science, technology, engineering, management and law have clearer and more substantial payoffs after years of internships and postgraduate training. But pay in art, design and education is low in the early years, and for some people, it remains low.

Someone who wants to go into graphic design or marketing requires a fair amount of time to get up to the point where you’re independent,” Mr. Wightman said. “Someone contemplating that kind of career isn’t going to take that first step unless they know they’re going to have that support to take an unpaid internship. If you don’t have other sources of support, that’s not even an option.”

Of course, the amount of annual parental support required by millennials is also highly dependent upon where they"re living.  We can"t honestly expect young Johnny or Susie to become wildly successful actors without living in Manhattan or Hollywood, now can we?

But don"t worry, young millennials, we"re sure everything will work out in due course...

"Depressed" Millennials Are Convinced The Trump Economy Is Going To Implode

When asked about the economic outlook for America, millennials were the only generation to predict 2017 would be worse than 2016. As Bloomberg reports, the feeling of impending doom wasn"t exclusively reserved for 2017: about a third of millennials surveyed said they don"t think they"ll have enough money to comfortably retire at all.

While the new year marks a fresh start for many, millennials aren"t so optimistic.

In fact, this generation is the only one to say they"re feeling worse, financially, about 2017 than 2016.

As Bloomberg details, in the days following the election, Country Financial Group, an insurance and investment firm, conducted its annual financial security index and found that the score was lowest for millennials, defined as those between 18 and 34 years old, at 60.9 (the highest score is 100).

To determine its score, used a survey that asked over 1,000 Americans questions about their financial stability, like whether they had savings, or if their assets were adequately assured. Independent research firm GfK collected the data. Generation X-ers, (people aged 35 to 49), had a score of 66.6. Boomers (between the ages of 50 to 64) came in at 69.2. The Silent Generation, defined as those over age of 65, had the highest score at 71.2.

As Bloomberg notes, given that the poll was conducted in the days following the election and millennials overwhelmingly supported the losing candidate, these survey results might be swayed by some election-related depression.