Showing posts with label Filling station. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Filling station. Show all posts

Friday, September 8, 2017

Robert Murphy: 3 'Good' Things About "Price-Gouging"

As so often happens in the wake of a natural disaster, government officials in Texas are currently investigating claims of “price gouging,” which the office of the Attorney General reminds residents is illegal after the governor declares a disaster. This is a classic example of the ostensible contrast between greed and altruism, capitalism and charity.


Economists who favor the free market know the standard arguments for letting the price skyrocket to “clear the market” when there are supply shortages and demand spikes. These are important arguments, and indeed I will review them below.


At the same time, I think in our zeal to lecture the public on the efficient allocation of resources, we economists often forget to stress an important aspect of private morality when disaster strikes. Specifically, if certain individuals experience a genuine “windfall gain” simply because they happen to be holding goods that suddenly become very scarce, then these individuals can donate their windfall to support relief efforts. In this way, there is no question of them profiting from their neighbors’ suffering. Market prices are still able to perform their valuable function of communicating information about supplies and demands to everyone in the system, while the losses imposed by nature are more evenly distributed because of charitable assistance given from the lucky to the unlucky.


The Standard Arguments for Letting Prices Clear the Market


After a natural disaster, the supplies of certain items — such as bottled water, gasoline, flashlights, and canned goods — become much more rigid, while the demand for these items goes through the roof. Consequently, the “market-clearing price,” at which the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded, also may rise quite significantly. (There were reports of a convenience store in Houston charging $99 for a case of bottled water and $20 for a gallon of gasoline.)


It’s obvious why most people would find this outcome horrendous, and that government officials would reassure the public that such behavior won’t be tolerated.


Even so, free market economists stress the social benefits of allowing the price to rise in this scenario. We can break these benefits into those emanating from the supply side and those emanating from the demand side. (For an excellent discussion, listen to David R. Henderson’s recent appearance on the Tom Woods Show.)


Benefit 1: Calling in More Supplies 


On the supply side, a much higher price acts as a loudspeaker telling the rest of the world: “Houston wants a lot more bottled water and gasoline!” Even though we might casually say that after a natural disaster, the supply of these items is fixed, strictly speaking that isn’t correct. Except in the most outrageous circumstances (such as an avalanche or radiation leak), outsiders can bring in additional amounts of these precious items.


It’s certainly true that morality comes into play here. For example, a convenience store owner who lives only an hour from Houston, and who has a big van, might decide to cancel his golf plans to instead make a few trips to either donate or sell “at cost” whatever supplies he has, in order to do his part in relieving suffering. Most Americans would probably say that was “the right thing to do” for somebody who found himself in that situation, when the news reported just how bad the flooding was.


But what about a convenience store owner who lives six hours from Houston? Is it acceptable for him to charge a bit more than “cost” or even “normal retail price” in order to recoup some of the sacrifice he would have to make — not just counting the gas in his vehicle but also the opportunity cost of missing work — if he were to make one or more round trips?


As we change the circumstances, Americans would begin to disagree about the exact moral obligations of various people who happened to have access to much-needed goods. But we can certainly agree that in practice more people would end up deciding to help move water, gasoline, flashlights, and other items into Houston, the more we allowed them to charge for these items once they unloaded them in the beleaguered city.


Also keep in mind that this “upward sloping supply curve” — meaning that as the price rises, there are more units of bottled water (say) in Houston — doesn’t just operate geographically, but it also operates temporally.


Benefit 2: Storing Up Goods for Emergency Use 


For example, suppose the manager of a grocery store hears on the news that a hurricane is approaching. If she believes the authorities will let her charge whatever the market will bear, then she might decide to stock the warehouse with extra cases of water, flashlights, batteries, generators, etc. She knows that if the storm turns out to be a nothingburger, she will have to run a big sale the following week, in order to clear out the excess inventory. (After all, she presumably already had the optimal amount of inventory before the impending hurricane made her bulk up the warehouse.)


However, so long as our hypothetical grocery store manager knows she will be legally allowed to charge (say) quadruple the normal price in the event of flooding, then she will probably err on the side of loading up the warehouse with more units, compared to her decisions if she knows that the authorities will punish her for “gouging” her customers.


Similar reasoning holds for gas station owners, who might have the ability to load up on unusually large amounts of inventory — perhaps by having extra trucks come in, and remain on their property — but would only be willing to incur this extra expense, if they thought there were a possibility the market price of gasoline would break (say) $10 and that the authorities would allow them to charge such prices.


As these examples illustrate, the amount of bottled water, gasoline, batteries, etc. “on hand” in Houston when the hurricane struck is itself influenced by the attitude of the authorities toward “price gouging.” Business owners and pure speculators didn’t ship in as much of these goods as they would have done, in an environment in which voluntary transactions were sacrosanct legally.


In his interview with Tom Woods, Henderson also made a very subtle point about high prices inducing owners to carry goods forward in time. I’ll illustrate his point with a hypothetical story: In the current legal environment, with prohibitions against “gouging,” a Houston store owner sitting on a few pallets of bottled water would probably just unload them all on Day 1 and leave town, because there would be nothing else for him to do. However, if the authorities and the public didn’t condemn owners for charging the true market price, such a person might reason, “Right now bottled water is selling for $10 per case in this neighborhood. But if the rain doesn’t stop and it takes longer than people expect for the streets to clear, it’s entirely possible that I could hold back 50 of my remaining cases in the back storeroom, and then sell them for $50 each in a few days. The prospect of getting an extra $2000 totally makes it worth my while to sleep here in the store for a few days, rather than leaving Houston.”


This type of analysis shows that we want high prices not simply to tell businesses in Arkansas that they should sell some of their bottled water in Houston, rather than unloading it all in Little Rock, but also to tell businesses in Houston that they should sell some of their bottled water on Day 5 after the hurricane rather than unloading it all on Day 1.


Benefit 3: Encouraging Conservation 


In the previous section we outlined the social benefits of high prices coming from the increased quantity supplied of the crucial items. On the flip side, letting prices rise will also encourage conservation among the end users, so that any given supply of items is “rationed” among people more uniformly.


Consider bottled water. Once the storm hits and a particular family knows they will be stuck in Houston for several days with flooded streets, the first inclination might be to run to the store and stock up on needed items. At the normal retail price, a mother might buy 10 cases of bottled water, not only for drinking but also in case they need to use it for (say) boiling pasta. After all, who knows how long the utilities might be knocked out? She reasons that she can store the cases in her pantry and draw the water down over the next two months, if it turns out that things go back to normal sooner rather than later. There’s no harm in stocking way up on water, just in case.


But of course, this is exactly what we don’t want people to do, in a situation where there are only (say) 3 cases of bottled water per stranded family in the city. We want the people who hit the stores before their neighbors to be very judicious in how much they buy, because they need to leave other units on the shelves for the next families who show up.


This is exactly what an “unconscionable” price will do. If the store is charging $20 for a case of water that normally retails for $4, our hypothetical mother won’t so casually load 10 cases into her SUV. After that sticker shock, suddenly boiling pasta with bottled water won’t seem as appealing. Maybe she’ll only buy 3 cases of water, and get some cans of tuna fish and protein bars instead.


When it comes to gasoline, there is a particular perversity of anti-gouging rules in the case of an impending storm. Imagine yourself as a military commander, who has thousands of vehicles you need to move away from the coast, and you only have a limited amount of fuel on your coastal base. However, there are plenty of refueling depots a few hours inland. What do you do?


The obvious solution is to only allow your troops to put enough fuel in their vehicles to make it to next refueling station. This spreads the available fuel around so that you can evacuate as many vehicles as possible.


Now back to the real world: In the path of an incoming storm, where thousands of people want to evacuate the coast, depending on refinery interruptions and other bottlenecks, it’s possible that some local stations will run out of gas if they don’t raise their prices significantly. The people who are lucky enough to get to the stations first will naturally fill the tank up, before getting on the interstate to get out of Dodge. Then the unlucky followers will see the gas station is empty, and may end up stalling on the interstate. The authorities then have a problem of dealing with stranded motorists who are stuck not because of flooding, but because they ran out of fuel during their escape.


In contrast, if the few relevant station owners charge $15 per gallon, then people who had (say) a half-tank in their car when the storm hit, will say, “That’s outrageous!” and get back on the highway, to see if prices are any better in another 50 miles. At a price of $15, only people who are about to run out of gas will buy any, and even they will only purchase enough to give them some breathing room. They too will probably take their chances and hope that gas is cheaper if they move away from the storm. Just as our hypothetical military commander, the decentralized price system allocates the scarce fuel among the vehicles to allow as many as possible to evacuate.


Is It Moral to Profit While Others Suffer?


Some people on social media heard these familiar economist arguments, but pushed back. “Yeah, we get your points about ‘efficiency,’” they said. “But let’s face it: During a disaster, plenty of heroes rise to the challenge, putting themselves in harm’s way in order to do what they can to help people in need. It is simply wrong for some convenience store owner who had just coincidentally gotten in a shipment of bottled water the day before, to effectively hit the lotto while his neighbors lose their house.”


I am sympathetic to this point, and I agree that typical libertarian economists often come across as coldhearted and seem detached from this everyday morality. (Indeed, this was the position I took in my concluding essay to the Independent Institute’s new book, Pope Francis and the Caring Society.)


Yet rather than prohibit owners from charging “what the market will bear,” I think a better way to avoid personally profiting from the tragedy of others is to suggest that they donate their genuine “windfalls” to relief efforts.


For example, consider a convenience store owner who happens to be sitting on 100 cases of bottled water that he normally sells for $4. (Assume he didn’t take any special measures to bulk up before the storm hit; this is the inventory he would have been holding in any case.) Because of the flooding, he realizes he could probably charge $14 and still sell out. So there is a potential $1,000 ( = $10 margin of “gouging” x 100 cases) in pure windfall profit he could make.


The conventional moralists would say no, he should keep his price at $4. But they have in mind that he would otherwise take that $1,000 and pocket it.


Suppose instead, however, that the owner charges the full $14, but then donates his $1,000 windfall to a local relief effort that is handing out free packets of food and dry clothes to families who were flooded out of their homes and have literally nothing (including wallets). Or to make the point even more clearly, suppose he donates the $1,000 windfall to a local organization that uses the money to buy bottled water and hand it out to desperate people?


Once we go down this path, we see that the insistence on charging only $4 for the cases of water really just means that our hypothetical store owner is concentrating his $1,000 worth of charity on the particular Houstonians who happen to walk into his store and pull out their credit card to make a big purchase. What are the odds that these people are the ones in Houston most in need of his implicit $1,000 charitable donation that day?


Conclusion


As economists in the Austrian tradition stress more than others, market prices act as signals that allow humans to communicate valuable information with each other.


Just as it would stymie relief efforts if rescue workers couldn’t use cell phones or walkie talkies in a disaster area, by the same token government officials hamper humanity’s ability to recover from a crisis when they prohibit market prices from letting producers and consumers talk to each other.

Friday, September 1, 2017

Hurricane Harvey Looters Targeting Fuel Tanks As Google Searches For "How To Siphon Gas" Soar

Texas resident Joe Roan woke up to a rather unpleasant surprise yesterday morning as he discovered the remnants of a would-be thief attempting to steal gasoline from his Jeep Wrangler tank.  Unfortunately, as a local CBS affiliate pointed out last night, with refinery outages resulting in growing gasoline shortages, this is becoming a rather common occurrence for Texas residents.





Joe Roan didn’t witness the crime, but he found the evidence in his driveway.



“I came outside this morning and found this water hose was sticking out,” he said, holding the hose a thief left hanging out of his Jeep’s tank.



On the ground sat a gas tank.



“Instantly I knew someone was trying to steal my gas,” he said. “Maybe a car drove by when they were doing it and they ran? I don’t know.”



Roan said the thief didn’t even manage to get any fuel.





Meanwhile, Google searches for "how to siphon gas" have soared as criminals have been forced to hone their skills before taking to the streets.


Siphon



Of course, the rampant onset of gasoline thieves is the result of fuel shortages which are often exacerbated by the pure panic of people trying to keep their tanks topped off. As we"ve reported several times in recent days, long lines at gas stations have become a common sight from the Texas shores up to Dallas.





Meanwhile, one seasoned energy trader warned this is "only just beginning" as the hangover from Hurricane Harvey flows downstream to retail gas prices...


As Bloomberg notes, Harvey impact currently includes:


  • Colonial says it’ll commingle Rbob and conventional gasoline

  • Explorer Pipeline planning to start lines Saturday, Sunday

  • Logjam grows to 29 oil tankers as 11 ports remain closed

  • Total Port Arthur is said facing extended shutdown on power loss

  • Texas storm bucks N.Y. traders with wild gasoline expiry swings

  • NHC issues final advisory on Harvey; losing tropical character

Which has left retail gas prices at the pump at their highest in 2 years...




And, judging by their usual lagged response to RBOB, they are set to go dramatically higher in the next few weeks...




All of which has resulted in the predictable onslaught of price gouging, with the Dallas News reporting sightings of gas prices ranging from $2.99 a gallon to $8....





There were multiple reports of gas stations charging anywhere from $2.99 to $8 for a gallon of regular gas.



At the 76 gas station in Garland, the fuel-price display unit outside showed $8 for a gallon. The station was swamped with calls from angry customers after a photo was posted on social media, according to Robert Fernandez, who works there.



There have been numerous complaints about high gas prices, according to Kayleigh Lovvorn, spokeswoman for the office of Texas Attorney General.



“When evaluating whether a business is engaging in price gouging in the sale of fuel, we look to see if they are charging excessive or exorbitant prices,” Lovvorn said in an emailed statement. “We recognize that certain market conditions, such as decreased production and closed refineries, might cause market fluctuations.”



The attorney general’s office is looking into 984 complaints filed between August 25 and Thursday afternoon. On Thursday alone, its Consumer Protection Division received more than 500 complaints, “many of which involve allegations of high fuel prices in Dallas, including amounts ranging from $6 to $8 dollars per gallon.”



...which is still pretty cheap compared to what Best Buy is charging for water.


Water

Saturday, July 15, 2017

Mexico's Gasoline Thieves Go Full Mad Max As Competing Cartels Declare War On Each Other And The Army

Fuel theft in Mexico used to consist of a few villagers drilling holes in Pemex pipelines and carrying away just enough gasoline to fill their vehicles and maybe a couple extra gallons to sell on the side of the freeway.  But as The Columbian notes, illegally tapping into pipelines and stealing gas from Mexico"s state-owned oil company has morphed into a very well organized criminal enterprise, run by well-armed regional cartels and supported by distribution on a commercial scale to factories and petrol stations.





Heavy arms and violence seen in Tuesday’s confrontation in Puebla state reflect its growth into a billion-dollar business that supplies not just the people selling gas on the sides of highways — called “huachicoleros” — but factories and gasoline station chains.



It has become an industrial-scale operation, involving a string of villages and hamlets along pipeline routes, not just in Puebla, but in Guanajuato, Veracruz, Tamaulipas and other Mexican states. The government says more than 6,000 illegal pipeline taps were found in 2016 and officials have been detecting an average of about 20 taps a day this year.



“Of all the fuel that is stolen, only 10 percent is sold to the public” by roadside vendors, said Jesus Morales, the top police official in Puebla state. “The other 90 percent goes to big business groups, to gas stations, factories.”



Meanwhile, the collection and distribution of stolen fuel has become every bit as barbaric as the drug trade with local villagers being given quotas by organized cartels and then suffering brutal consequences when those quotas aren"t met.





As the stakes have risen, fuel theft has become a blood industry.



In early July, nine people were killed, including five men whose bodies were burned, in a dispute between fuel thieves in the town of Huehuetlan in Puebla state. Morales said the killings involved a gang of distributors trying to collect from local vendors who were unable to meet their sales quotas because of police raids.



“They committed this barbarous act as a gesture of anger,” said Morales, who claimed that vendors have recently raised the price of stolen fuel to near that of legitimate gasoline — it used to be half as much — because their supplies are being cut off.



As the police officers waited near the cornfield in Puebla, they saw a huge column of smoke rise into the sky after a clandestine warehouse of stolen fuel went up in flames about two miles down the road.



Authorities couldn’t go into the area to fight the blaze because they risked a confrontation with villagers.



“They don’t even let the fire department enter,” Assistant Public Safety Secretary Jose Tlachi said. “They usually try to put the fires out themselves.”





Pemex workers and local villagers paint a surreal scene of the carnage left in the wake of this relatively nascent criminal enterprise which includes 1,000"s of abandoned "Max Max-style" vehicles and gasoline literally flooding entire fields after pipeline taps are drilled and then simply abandoned once tanks have been filled.





A former soldier carrying an AR-15 and extra clips who was patrolling the pipeline for Pemex said the police officers had earlier been attacked by three armored trucks, explaining their reluctance to confront the thieves a second time.



“You can tell they are armored by the weight of the vehicles. They are better-armed than we are,” he said.



The battle against the fuel thieves has left a strange “huachicolero” landscape east of Mexico City. Fields are littered with leaking illegal taps, abandoned fuel tanks and Mad Max-style vehicles whose interiors have been ripped out to hold thousand-liter tanks. Fires from stolen fuel are common.



The vehicles the gangs use are usually stolen and abandoned after a few trips. Over 1,700 of such vehicles have been seized in the last two months.



Meanwhile, just like with the drug cartels, local police forces are finding themselves outgunned by the thieves who have the benefit of better weapons and armored vehicles.





The police officers gripped their assault rifles tightly as they stared at the men filling plastic tanks and loading them onto a dozen pickup trucks in a cornfield in central Mexico. Even though a crime was being committed in front of them, the officers said it was too dangerous to move in.



They had to wait until the army arrived to advance because the suspects were better-armed than they were and an earlier attempt to arrest them had been repelled by gunfire, officials said.



“In the morning there were 40 trucks loading,” said Francisco, a security employee with the state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, who asked that his last name not be used for safety reasons. “We saw them loading, we went in, and they started shooting at us. The criminals had an armored car.”



Of course, gas thieving skyrocketed in Mexico earlier this year after President Pena Nieto decided to remove federal subsidies and hike prices a little over 20%, a move intended to offset budget deficits.  In hindsight, the price hike has cost the state-owned oil company, Pemex, at least $1 billion worth of stolen fuel and launched a brand new cartel war...probably not the expected outcome.

Monday, May 15, 2017

Here's Why You'll Pay Higher Gas Prices Whatever The Market

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,


The average gasoline tax in the U.S. is 49.5 cents per gallon, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute. That’s not too bad as far as averages go, but it has been climbing over the last five years and it will continue rising as states lose hope that the federal government will chip in for infrastructure construction and maintenance, and transportation.


Washington has been wary of raising the federal fuel tax. So wary, in fact, that the last time it adjusted the rate was more than two decades ago. Meanwhile, international oil prices have been jumping up and down, cars have become much more fuel efficient, and inflation has been biting into state income from gas taxes. In addition, there is a whole new challenge in the shape of electric vehicles that in the future will increasingly undermine fuel sales income for states.


Left with no options, 22 states have raised their fuel tax since 2012 and more will likely resort to the unpopular measure in the coming years. Since January 2017, Governing magazine notes, three states have passed laws to increase the gas excise tax: California, Tennessee, and Indiana. In California, the total tax, state plus federal, is now 57.20 cents per gallon. In Tennessee, the figure is 39.80 cents. In Indiana, the overall tax consumers pay on a gallon of gas is 51.24 cents.


According to one research organization, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, the number of states that have already introduced higher gas taxes is unusual, and what’s more, this number will continue to rise, with another seven states likely to pass higher gas tax laws before the end of the year: Alaska, Louisiana, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma, and West Virginia. Why? Because, although taxpayers can hardly be too happy about it, business groups are backing the higher taxes, ITEP analyst Carl Davies.


It’s a simple truth, though not a widely liked one, that states—and national governments—need income from taxes to produce goods and services for the people who pay the taxes. While it’s true that in the last decade there have been good reasons to keep prices at the pump steadily taxed, now that demand for road infrastructure and transport services is growing, states are finding themselves short of the money needed to respond to this demand.


The Great Recession saw prices shoot up to above US$3 per gallon, and by 2014 they’d gone above US$3.50 per gallon. That would have been a very bad time to even consider raising the tax. Yet now prices are at historic lows thanks to shale and to a global glut. In fact, prices are so low that on some part of the States, rivalry between two or more gas stations has led to prices as low as US$0.95 and even US$0.78 per gallon. True, these extremes were touched for a few hours but they are indicative of price developments prompted by global fundamental trends.


So, drivers across the states that have not yet hiked their gas tax can reasonably expect that, in the not too distant future, they will have to pay more for gas, regardless of which way global prices go. That’s the bad news. The good news is that these global prices are unlikely to go much higher than they are now, as long as shale producers continue ramping up their output and lowering production prices. Unless, of course, it turns out that the shale boom is actually a bubble as some observers argue.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Mexican Protesters Seize Control Of U.S. Border Crossing In Tijuana

A couple of weeks ago we highlighted the protests that had engulfed Mexico after the finance ministry announced plans to raise gasoline prices by 20.1% starting January 1st.  While many people have looted gas stations and/or threatened to burn them down altogether, the latest protesting strategy of pissed off Mexican motorists is to seize control of border crossings with the United States and allow for a free flow of motorists into Mexico.  According to the AP, over the weekend roughly 50 protesters were able to take control of the Otay Mesa crossing that connects San Diego to Tijuana as border officials abandoned their posts.





Protesters took control of vehicle lanes at one of the busiest crossings on the U.S. border Sunday to oppose Mexican gasoline price hikes, waving through motorists into Mexico after Mexican authorities abandoned their posts.



Motorists headed to Mexico zipped by about 50 demonstrators at the Otay Mesa port of entry connecting San Diego and Tijuana, many of them honking to show support. The demonstrators waved signs to protest gas hikes and air other grievances against the government of Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.



Other protests closed southbound traffic for hours at the San Diego-Tijuana San Ysidro port of entry, the busiest crossing along the 2,000-mile border, and halted southbound traffic at one of two crossings in Nogales, Arizona. U.S. Customs and Border Protection and California Highway Patrol officers closed southbound Interstate 5 to block access to the San Ysidro crossing, diverting traffic several miles east to the Otay Mesa port of entry.



border







Despite a free flow of motorists into Mexico,  U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials confirmed that inspections were normal for all travelers entering the U.S. from Mexico.


Of course these latest protests follow reports from last week that Mexico"s drug cartels have been looting Pemex oil and gas pipelines in an effort to create their own brand new black market for petroleum products.  With a modest upfront capital investment of $5,000 - $8,000, the cartels have realized they can tap directly into state-owned gas pipelines and withdraw seemingly unlimited supplies of gasoline which they then sell along the highway at a discount to official government prices.  It"s a win-win situation whereby the drug cartels make 100% profit margins and citizens get "cheap" fuel.





The black market is booming. Several states experienced gasoline shortages at the end of last year as more thieves tapped into state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) pipelines. The pilfered fuel was sold to drivers hoping to save money. Pipeline theft in 2015 increased sevenfold, to more than 5,500 taps, from just 710 in 2010. Pemex attributes the company’s 12-year slide in crude production in part to the growth in illegal taps.



The drug cartels have turned to fuel theft as a side business worth hundreds of millions of dollars each year, and crime groups focused solely on gasoline robbery have sprung up, says Alejandro Schtulmann, president of Empra, a political-risk consulting firm in Mexico City. “You only need to invest $5,000 or $8,000 to buy some specific equipment, and the outcome of that is huge earnings.”



Fuel theft creates a vicious cycle: The theft increases costs for Pemex and makes the official gasoline supply more scarce, contributing to higher prices for legal consumers. Theft amounts to about $1 billion a year, says Luis Miguel Labardini, an energy consultant at Marcos y Asociados and senior adviser to Pemex’s chief financial officer in the 1990s. “If Pemex were a public company, they would be in financial trouble just because of the theft of fuel,” he says. “It’s that bad.”



Gas Looting


Of course, the biggest loser in this whole situation continues to be Enrique Peña Nieto who has basically become the least popular President in Mexico since one-party rule ended in 2000.





All this is creating headaches for Enrique Peña Nieto, whose popularity was already the lowest of any president since one-party rule ended in 2000. Peña Nieto is limited to a single term, and polls show potential candidates from his Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) trail populist opposition leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the race for the mid-2018 presidential election. López Obrador has made the jump in gasoline prices his latest rallying cry against the administration.



“This is definitely going to have consequences for the PRI,” says Jorge Chabat, a political scientist at the Center for Economic Research and Teaching, a university based in Mexico City. “Frankly, I don’t see any way that they can win in 2018.”



If all else fails, we hear that the tequila served in Tijuana is a very good, cheap and highly combustible alternative to gasoline.

Friday, January 13, 2017

Mexican Drug Cartels Looting State-Owned Gas Pipelines For Black Market Sales

A couple of weeks ago we highlighted the protests that had engulfed Mexico after the finance ministry announced plans to raise gasoline prices by 20.1% starting January 1st.  Amid the chaos, the country"s powerful Jalisco New Generation cartel threatened to to burn down gas stations as retribution for taking advantage of "the majority of the people who don"t make even a minimum wage."





But before readers blow this off as just another protest by an angry population which fails to grasp the "global deflationary collapse" while focusing on "fringe, outlier events"  - at least in the words of central bankers -  things suddenly got serious when none other than the country"s powerful Jalisco New Generation cartel has entered the fray, threatening to burn gas stations in response to the price hikes, according to Jalisco authorities cited by TeleSur.



"They are speculating in order to obtain million dollar profits from the majority of the people who don"t make even a minimum wage, we have already realized that the (shortage) of fuel is because dealers don"t want to sell fuel unless they can do so at a profit, all of our people are now ready to start the mission," the Mexican drug cartel stated in a WhatsApp message circulating in Jalisco.



"The CJNG, in support of the working class, commits itself to making burn all the gasoline stations that to December 30 of the current year, at 10:00 p.m." — before the price increases go into effect — "have not normalized the sale of fuel at the fair price," the message said, according to the Mexican news outlet Aristegui Noticias.



Gas Looting



Alas, after the knee jerk reaction to riot subsided, which would have only resulted in gas prices soaring even higher anyway, Mexico"s drug cartels did what any clever black market entrepreneurial organization would do:  they decided to steal the gasoline and sell it themselves.  With a modest upfront capital investment of $5,000 - $8,000, the cartels have realized they can tap directly into state-owned gas pipelines and withdraw seemingly unlimited supplies of gasoline which they then sell along the highway at a discount to official government prices.  It"s a win-win situation whereby the drug cartels make 100% profit margins and citizens get "cheap" fuel.





The black market is booming. Several states experienced gasoline shortages at the end of last year as more thieves tapped into state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) pipelines. The pilfered fuel was sold to drivers hoping to save money. Pipeline theft in 2015 increased sevenfold, to more than 5,500 taps, from just 710 in 2010. Pemex attributes the company’s 12-year slide in crude production in part to the growth in illegal taps.



The drug cartels have turned to fuel theft as a side business worth hundreds of millions of dollars each year, and crime groups focused solely on gasoline robbery have sprung up, says Alejandro Schtulmann, president of Empra, a political-risk consulting firm in Mexico City. “You only need to invest $5,000 or $8,000 to buy some specific equipment, and the outcome of that is huge earnings.”



Fuel theft creates a vicious cycle: The theft increases costs for Pemex and makes the official gasoline supply more scarce, contributing to higher prices for legal consumers. Theft amounts to about $1 billion a year, says Luis Miguel Labardini, an energy consultant at Marcos y Asociados and senior adviser to Pemex’s chief financial officer in the 1990s. “If Pemex were a public company, they would be in financial trouble just because of the theft of fuel,” he says. “It’s that bad.”



Of course, there are some losers in all of this as Enrique Peña Nieto has basically become the least popular President in Mexico since one-party ruled ended in 2000.





All this is creating headaches for Enrique Peña Nieto, whose popularity was already the lowest of any president since one-party rule ended in 2000. Peña Nieto is limited to a single term, and polls show potential candidates from his Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) trail populist opposition leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the race for the mid-2018 presidential election. López Obrador has made the jump in gasoline prices his latest rallying cry against the administration.



“This is definitely going to have consequences for the PRI,” says Jorge Chabat, a political scientist at the Center for Economic Research and Teaching, a university based in Mexico City. “Frankly, I don’t see any way that they can win in 2018.”



State-owned Pemex is also one of the losers with the company expected to lose about $1 billion to theft this year...but no one really pays taxes anyway so it shouldn"t be that big a deal.

Monday, January 2, 2017

Drug Cartels Get Involved As Mexicans Rage, Protest Surging Gas Prices

Even as Mexico has reasons to be concerned about the upcoming presidential inauguration of Donald Trump, who has vowed to make life, and especially trade relations, for Mexicans far more "complicated" under his administration, the population of Mexico has far more pressing problems at this moment, because just days after the finance ministry announced on December 27 that it would raise the price of gasoline by as much as 20.1% to 88 cents per liter while hiking diesel prices by 16.5% to 83 cents, the hikes went into effect on January 1, welcoming in the new year with a surge in the price of one of Mexico"s most important staples and leading to widespread anger, protests and in some cases violence.



As Telesur reports, the people of Mexico "are entering the New Year in a state of rage and anxiety" with protests planned for Sunday to strongly denounce the government"s huge hike in gasoline prices. The sharp rise in gasoline prices has been called the "gasolinazo" in Spanish, which roughly translates to "gasoline-punch."



The price increase comes as part of a planned liberalization of Mexico"s energy market, which involves the move from subsidies that kept gas prices low to a market-based pricing scheme that will adjust prices at the pump based on supply and demand. And while Mexico"s unpopular president Enrique Pena Nieto had promised that fuel prices will fall thanks to his 2014 energy reforms, which dismantled the seven-decade-old national ownership of petroleum resources by state-owned firm Pemex, the initial move in prices has been higher, and decidedly so, by roughly 20% for gasoline and slightly less for diesel.


The price ceiling will then be adjusted daily starting Feb. 18, before letting supply and demand determine them in March, although it is the immediate shock that is of concern to the peace and stability in Mexico.


Case in point, around 100 protestors blocked a service station in Acapulco on Friday, while on Saturday an assembly of popular organizations in Chihuahua state"s capital pledged to block all commercial transportation from entering or exiting the city as a means toward paralyzing the economy and pressuring the federal government to reverse the hikes. The assembly of people"s organizations also announced their intention to block major highways and railways in response to what they see as a neoliberal looting of Mexico and handover of its resources to private capital, according to a statement.


On Sunday, the day the price hikes went into effect, Excelsior reported that angry citizens protested in several spots of the capital, Mexico City, blocking roads, demanding a return to lower gas prices.




But before readers blow this off as just another protest by an angry population which fails to grasp the "global deflationary collapse" while focusing on "fringe, outlier events"  - at least in the words of central bankers -  things suddenly got serious when none other than the country"s powerful Jalisco New Generation cartel has entered the fray, threatening to burn gas stations in response to the price hikes, according to Jalisco authorities cited by TeleSur.



Gunmen torched vehicles and blockaded roads during a military operation to
arrest two leaders of the Jalisco New Generation cartel.


"They are speculating in order to obtain million dollar profits from the majority of the people who don"t make even a minimum wage, we have already realized that the (shortage) of fuel is because dealers don"t want to sell fuel unless they can do so at a profit, all of our people are now ready to start the mission," the Mexican drug cartel stated in a WhatsApp message circulating in Jalisco.


"The CJNG, in support of the working class, commits itself to making burn all the gasoline stations that to December 30 of the current year, at 10:00 p.m." — before the price increases go into effect — "have not normalized the sale of fuel at the fair price," the message said, according to the Mexican news outlet Aristegui Noticias.


Making matters worse is that Mexico was already facing fuel shortages prior to the price hike, angering Mexicans in several states. Ahead of the price hike many people have said they"d hoard gasoline, buying it from stations that in many states are already dealing with supply shortages. Illegal gas sales have popped up, and protests have already taken place in some parts of the country, with more planned in the days of the new year.


"The fuel price increase causes outrage. People are right: it"s not fair. I support each family, I share their outrage and anger," Aristoteles Sandoval, the governor of western Jalisco state, wrote on Twitter. Sandoval"s criticism drew particular attention because he is a member of Pena Nieto"s ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party or PRI. Furious opposition governors plan to meet with federal government officials next week to discuss the price hike.


Meanwhile, the unpopular price hike is also becoming a key political talking point: "We just had a security meeting (between governors and Pena Nieto) days ago and there was not one comment about this situation," said Mexico City"s Mayor Miguel Angel Mancera, a member of the opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution or PRD.


The protests are the latest expression of widespread antipathy toward Pena Nieto, whose popularity according to Telesur has plummeted below 25% this year due to his government"s widespread perception of collusion with cartels and failure to address drug-related violence, disappointing economic growth, violent repression of social movements and his unpopular decision to host Donald Trump before the anti-immigrant Republican won the U.S. presidential election.


Not helping matters, Finance Minister Jose Antonio Meade defended the fuel price increase, saying it would not trigger more inflation and that eventually the "final price for consumers will be among the most competitive in the world." For now, however, the response has been a negative one, with social media criticism leveled at Meade, who has been portrated as "chupasangre", or "bloodsucker."



   
In Mexico City, service station worker Maria de la Luz Lopez, quoted by Telesure, was worried that the price increases could hurt her. "I"m afraid that to compensate for the increase, (customers) will no longer give us tips," said Lopez who, like many in her field, does not earn a wage and depends on the generosity of drivers.


But ultimately, the price shock will hit those who are hurting the most. The increases would mean Mexicans, of whom 52% live in poverty, would spend more of their annual income on fuel than the residents of 59 other countries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


"We see the gasolinazo as an attack against the population, as a robbery, taking into account the levels of income of the population," Jose Narro, director of the workers" group Coordinadora Nacional Plan de Ayala, told Reforma.


Making matters worse, and refuting the promises of the finance minister, the Mexican central bank has warned that gas price increases would boost inflation at a time when the peso has already plunged against the US dollar due to the Trump victory.


With or without the involvement of the cartels, Mexico"s economy is likely to undergo a turbulent period of decline, which will be music in the ears for Mexico"s opposition politicians, such as leftist opposition leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador who is likely to benefit from Pena Nieto"s error, and who has put blame for the gasolinazo on the shoulders of Pena Nieto"s center-right Institutional Revolutionary Party and the conservative National Action Party, calling the former "corrupt and cynical" and the latter hypocrites.


The policy and its rollout have further diminished the perception of the Mexican president and his party, which has been a trend for some time.


"Mexicans were promised lower electricity prices, they got higher electricity prices. Mexicans were told austerity was needed, they got a congress that showers itself with bonuses," Dutch journalist Jan-Albert Hootsen, wrote on Facebook. "Mexicans were promised more security and a fairer justice state, they got homicide rates back at the level of 2012, the Ayotzinapa massacre and its botched investigation, etc."


"If you say one thing and are then time and time again perceived to do the exact opposite, what starts off as irritation among the public at some point will simply boil over," Hootsen concluded.


For those on the lookout for new gray, or even black swans, in the new year, keep an eye on the public mood in Mexico as a result of the now effected surge in gas prices.