Pentagon To Deploy THAAD Anti-Missile Systems On West Coast To Protect Against North Korean ICBM Attack

Days after North Korea launched its most advanced ICBM which reportedly can hit a target anywhere in the United States with its 8,000+ mile range, Pyongyang said the U.S. is "begging" for a nuclear war by planning the "largest-ever" joint aerial drill with South Korea, according to Bloomberg. “Should the Korean peninsula and the world be embroiled in the crucible of nuclear war because of the reckless nuclear war mania of the U.S., the U.S. will have to accept full responsibility for it,” North Korea’s state-run KCNA said Saturday, citing a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

As we previously reported, the statement came after Yonhap News reported that six U.S. Raptor stealth fighters planes arrived in South Korea on Saturday for a joint air drill named "Vigilant Ace 18" scheduled for Dec. 4 to 8. The F-22s flew into South Korea together in a show of force. The stealth fighters, however, were just a small part of the upcoming show of force: according to local media, some 230 aircraft and up to 16,000 soldiers and airmen are taking part in the drill, which is one of the biggest ever of its kind.

Meanwhile, in addition to Lindsey Graham"s warning that US civilians in South Korea should evacuate ahead of "military conflict", in response to North Korea"s recently enhanced capabilities, the United States is beefing up security on the West Coast.

Last week the New York Times reported that Hawaii was bringing back its Cold War-era early missile warning system designed to warn residents of an impending nuclear attack.

The Attack Warning Tone, described as a “wailing tone,” will be heard for about 50 seconds on the first business day of every month, beginning on Dec. 1. It will sound after the regular monthly test of the sirens that warn residents of hurricanes or tsunamis, the Emergency Management Agency said.

Now, according to Congressmen Mike Rogers who sits on the House Armed Services Committee along with Democrat Adam Smith, we learn that the Pentagon is also exploring locations on the West Coast for anti-missile hardware. Rogers and Smith said the Pentagon is looking to distribute the THAAD anti-missile system made by Lockheed Martin Corp at west coast sites.

“It’s just a matter of the location, and the MDA making a recommendation as to which site meets their criteria for location, but also the environmental impact,” the Alabama Congressman and Republican told Reuters during an interview on the sidelines of the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in southern California, although the Congressmen said the number of sites that may ultimately be deployed had yet to be determined.

As Zero Hedge reported in September, the THAAD ground-based regional missile defense system has a 100% success rate in test interceptions according to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency as of May 2017, hitting 13 out of 13 targets (unlike the new SM-3 Block IIA missile developed jointly by the US and Japan failed its first test in June). 

Reuters elaborates:

THAAD is a ground-based regional missile defense system designed to shoot down short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles and takes only a matter of weeks to install. In addition to the two THAAD systems deployed in South Korea and Guam in the Pacific, the U.S. has seven other THAAD systems. While some of the existing missiles are based in Fort Bliss, Texas, the system is highly mobile and current locations are not disclosed.

A Lockheed Martin representative declined to comment on specific THAAD deployments, but added that the company “is ready to support the Missile Defense Agency and the United States government in their ballistic missile defense efforts.” He added that testing and deployment of assets is a government decision.

The United States also tested the THAAD system in July, shooting down a simulated, incoming intermediate-range ICBM.

The addition to boost West Coast defense, THAAD locations will significantly beef up the existing ground-based Midcourse Defense System (GMD) located in Alaska and California, along with the ship-mounted Aegis system deplyed on U.S. Navy vessels. The THAAD system has a much higher success rate than the GMD. The Missile Defense Agency also told Congress in June that it planned to deliver 52 more THAAD interceptors to the U.S. Army between October, 2017 and September 2018, bringing total deliveries to 210 since May 2011, Reuters reports.

There is a bit of conflicting information on the plan, however, as Missile Defense Agency deputy director, Rear Admiral Jon Hill, stated "The Missile Defense Agency has received no tasking to site the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense System on the West Coast," directly contradicting reps Mike Rogers and (R-AL) and Adam Smith (D-WA).

As reported in September, South Korea has already installed the THAAD system in the province of Gyeongsangbuk, which hundreds of residents took to the streets to protest in a major clash with police. 

Perhaps the South Koreans (and certainly China) are not especially excited by the U.S. military buildup, but now that the neighbor to the north has the ability to sling an ICBM over 8,000 miles, they may reconsider.

South Korea Unveils Plan To Strike North Korean Missile Launchers

North Korea launched its Hwasong-15 ICBM into the waters west of Japan at 3:17 am local time on Wednesday. Barely six minutes later, South Korean artillery, air force, and Navy sprang into action and began firing missiles into the waters off eastern Korea - yet another military show of force meant to intimidate the North into ceasing its missile strikes.

The retaliatory display was calibrated to target a spot in the waters off the Korean peninsula that was exactly as far away as Pyongsong, a town about 20 miles north of Pyongyang where the Hwasong 15 was reportedly launched. The distance was meant to signify that the South Korean military could destroy the North’s missile launchers if it chose to do so, the Wall Street Journal.

But while the precision strike probably impressed any bystanders who were watching, in reality, the South’s technology for detecting and responding to North Korean missile launches is still unreliable.

But detecting missile tests is an imperfect science, involving misses as well as hits. In a conflict situation, North Korea is likely to take more steps to conceal its movements, for instance by deploying decoy launchers, said Yang Uk, senior defense researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a Seoul think tank.

 

In such a scenario, the likelihood falls that South Korean, U.S. or Japanese forces would pinpoint the exact launch site, Mr. Yang said. Still, he viewed the South’s response to the missile test as a success, especially considering the short time the military needed to return fire.

 

A spokesman for the U.S.-led U.N. Command in Korea said no U.S. or other forces participated in the response.

 

“What we saw Wednesday was an active response to a North Korean missile launch that South Korea calls its ‘kill chain’ system’,” Mr. Yang said. The kill chain is part of a larger defense system designed to pre-emptively strike the North’s missile systems in the case of a nuclear attack.

 

South Korea this year installed a U.S.-operated Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense antimissile battery that can shoot down short- and medium-range missiles, complementing its Patriot PAC-2 antiballistic missile system.

 

The new battery has a longer-range, but it can’t cover the whole country.

A retired senior South Korean military official said that the South lacks a military satellite that can watch the North, although US and Japanese satellites share images with South Korean officials in real time.

Meanwhile, analysts said North Korean officials install devices onto missiles that generate signals and send them to ground-based control towers. The South has a way to tap into these signals and track the missiles, they said.

But in a real missile launch targeting a South Korean, Japanese or U.S. city, the North Koreans may choose not to install them, said Jo Dong-joon, deputy director of the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University. This means that the South might have no way to track a hostile missile, Mr. Jo said.

The retired military official also noted that the South has a network of human intelligence in the North that may have tipped off Seoul officials about this week’s launch. He declined to give further details, citing security concerns.

Details on the South’s spy network in the North remain murky, but local media have reported in recent months that the South has lost most of its human network in North Korea in recent years.
 

Can The U.S. Intercept A North Korean Missile?

North Korea"s nuclear program has gathered serious and frightening momentum over the past few months, culminating in the isolated regime test-firing a missile over Japan in August and detonating a hydrogen bomb last Sunday. As diplomatic efforts stall, Statista"s Niall McCarthy points out that eyes are turning to the region"s missile-defense technology.

Despite it being South Korea"s first line of defense against a nuclear attack, the U.S. Army"s THAAD system has proven controversial in the country with residents fearful the areas surrounding the launchers could become North Korean targets. The most recent nuclear test has prompted the country"s defense ministry to deploy the four remaining THAAD launchers, on top of the two already in operation.

That decision may turn out to be well-founded, considering that the THAAD system has a 100 percent success rate in test interceptions. That"s according to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, who say the system hit 13 targets in 13 attempts up to May 2017 (as well as another successful test since then).

You will find more statistics at Statista

Countries in the region can also count on the Aegis missile system fitted to U.S. and Japanese naval vessels. Its Raytheon Standard missiles cannot currently engage ICBMs but they are capable of destroying ballistic missiles. They have proven reasonably reliable in tests, destroying 35 targets and failing on seven occasions.

The U.S. Patriot surface to air missile system is also used by South Korea and Japan. When it is used to engage missiles, it has a shorter range and is more effective protecting strategic targets rather than larger areas. Despite controversy regarding the system"s record intercepting Iraqi SCUD missiles during the Gulf War, anti-missile tests have generally proven successful.

The Ground-Based Midcourse Defense is responsible for defending North America by intercepting incoming warheads in space during the midcourse phase of ballistic trajectory. So far, however, the system has proven far from reliable with only 10 out of a total of 18 tests ending in success.

Israel has demonstrated how far missile defense technology has evolved, deploying its Iron Dome system with great success.

As North Korea continues testing and sabre-ratting, the U.S. and its allies will be hoping their own defenses won"t be put to a far greater test.

Two B-1B Bombers Hold Live-Fire Drills Over Korean Peninsula, Show Off US "Attack Capabilities"

The US sent two B-1B Lancer strategic bombers from Guam"s Andersen Air Force Base base to the Korean Peninsula, to practice “attack capabilities” with South Korean jet fighters and hold live-fire drills on Saturday, Yonhap News reported, the latest show of force by the US military after North Korea’s first-ever ICBM test launch on July 4. The pair of US bombers flew conducted a simulated destruction of an enemy ballistic missile launcher and underground facilities, the South"s air force said, sending a strong hint to its northern neighbor.

The joint exercise included US F-16 fighters jets as well as fighter planes from the South Korean and Japanese air forces, and came a day after Trump said in Warsaw on Thursday that he was considering “some pretty severe things” in response to North Korea’s latest actions

Friday’s flyover followed a joint missile-defense drill by the US and South Korean armies on Korea’s east coast Wednesday, and as the US Pacific Air Forces said in a statement late on Friday, the 10-hour flight drill was conducted “in response to a series of increasingly escalatory actions by North Korea."

The US message was clear enough: "North Korea’s actions are a threat to our allies, partners and homeland,” Gen. Terrence O’ Shaughnessy, Pacific Air Forces commander, said in a statement. “Let me be clear, if called upon we are trained, equipped and ready to unleash the full lethal capability of our allied air forces."

Some more details on the drill from the WSJ and Reuters: during the drill, two B-1B bombers flew from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam to the Korean Peninsula where the bombers conducted the live-fire exercise at a range in South Korea"s eastern Gangwon province, dropping weapons in a simulated attack on a missile launcher. They were joined by South Korean and U.S. F-16 jet fighters during the mission: South Korean and U.S. fighter jets conducted precision strike drills aimed at attacking enemy targets hidden underground.

South Korea"s Yonhap news agency said the bombers then flew west, hugging the heavily fortified Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) border between the two Koreas, before leaving South Korean airspace. The B-1Bs then flew with Japanese F-2 jet fighters over the East China Sea before returning to Guam.

This was not the first time the US sent a very clear message to te Kim regime: the Pentagon has been making shows of force in recent months in response to perceived increases in tension on the Korean Peninsula. Twice in May, the U.S. sent B-1B bombers on flyovers near the Korean Peninsula. Each came shortly after a North Korean missile test. So far these have proben to not be very effective at deterring North Korea.

Also in April, the US said it was sending the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group to the western Pacific to underscore Washington’s commitment to the region. In that case, the announcement instead raised questions about U.S. credibility after it came to light that the aircraft carrier was thousands of miles away. On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis told reporters in an impromptu briefing at the Pentagon that “we are leading with diplomatic and economic efforts” although he said the launch was a “very serious escalation” and warned the North that any effort to start a war “would lead to severe consequences.”

Confirming that the US military is just waiting for a green light, in its statement following Friday’s air force exercise, the U.S. said that it “maintains flexible bomber and jet fighter capabilities” in the region and could “quickly respond to any regional threat.”

The U.S. bombers and South Korean fighters “are just two of many lethal military options at our disposal,” said Lt. Gen. Thomas Bergeson, deputy commander of the U.S. military in South Korea. “This mission clearly demonstrates the U.S.-ROK alliance remains prepared to use the full range of capabilities to defend and to preserve the security of the Korean Peninsula and region,” Lt. Gen. Bergeson added, using the acronym for South Korea’s formal name, the Republic of Korea.

* * *

Separately Reuters reports that in a move that is sure to anger China and Russia, the US also plans to carry out "a new test of its THAAD missile defense system against an intermediate-range ballistic missile in the coming days" as tensions with North Korea climb.

The test, which was reportedly planned months ago, will be the first of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to defend against a simulated attack by an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), one of the officials said. The THAAD interceptors will be fired from Alaska. The United States has THAAD interceptors in Guam that are meant to help guard against a missile attack from a country such as North Korea.

Asked by Reuters, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) confirmed that it aimed to carry out a THAAD flight test "in early July." Chris Johnson, an MDA spokesman, said the THAAD weapon system at the Pacific Spaceport Complex Alaska in Kodiak, Alaska, would "detect, track and engage a target with a THAAD interceptor."

Earlier this month Moscow and Beijing, in a joint statement, called on Washington to immediately halt deployment of THAAD in South Korea. The statement, not incorrectly, said Washington was using North Korea as a pretext to expand its military infrastructure in Asia and risked upsetting the strategic balance of power in the region.

Meanwhile, in North Korea, KCNA news gency reported that Kim Jong Un visited a mausoleum honouring state founder Kim Il Sun on Saturday, the anniversary of his grandfather"s death. He was joined by military officials who contributed to the success of the ICBM test, the news agency said. It was unclear if he was planning any further ICBM launches in the immediate future.

South Korea Delays THAAD Deployment – What Next?

Authored by Michael Brady via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

On June 5, South Korean President Moon Jai-in ordered an environmental impact assessment in the area where four additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launchers were to be deployed. THAAD is a mobile system capable of hitting ballistic missiles inside or outside the atmosphere in their final, or terminal, phase.

The unexpected move has caused alarm for policy makers in Washington, DC, who are worried about Beijing’s influence on the newly elected president.

THAAD is a defensive system designed to track and shoot down missiles designated for targets inside South Korea and throughout the region. Its primary purpose is to defend US military personnel (approximately 28,000) and South Korean critical infrastructure from North Korean missile launches. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue to ebb and flow as Washington has requested assistance from Beijing to reign in the reclusive Kim regime.

Russia and China continue to oppose the deployment. China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, recently stated, “We have said many times before that the United States deployment of THAAD not only is not beneficial for the resolution of the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, it is also not good for regional stability.”

The unexpected delay in fully deploying the THAAD system could result in several scenarios going forward.

First, the delay could give the United States a window of opportunity to completely reassess its strategic posturing on the peninsula. Options to execute a phased withdrawal from the region could unfold, something many experts believe would be a mistake.

 

Secondly, the delay could embolden the North Korean regime to continue its furious pace of missile testing. North Korea has already fired 16 missiles in 10 tests in 2017. As Beijing and Washington continue to squabble over how to exert pressure on the DPRK, it is no wonder this lack of a coherent strategy will allow continued testing to occur unabated.

 

Third, its unclear if Moon is signaling that that he is open to a fresh approach toward Chinese and South Korean relations. China’s influence in the region is clearly growing as Washington continues to espouse an incoherent strategy in the region while maintaining an “American first” approach toward its decision-making process. It’s no wonder South Korea is weighing its options carefully with Beijing. Closer ties between the two states would benefit both nations in the long run, particularly on economic and regional security issues.

The United States should consider South Korea’s decision to delay THAAD as an opportunity to withdraw from the peninsula. The cold war is long over, and Washington’s ability to contain the DPRK has failed. Allowing China to take a greater leadership role may not be such a bad thing.

China Demands "Immediate Halt" Of US Missile Shield Deployment In South Korea

As we pointed out earlier today, Reuters cited US military officials who said that the U.S. military"s THAAD anti-missile defense system has "reached initial intercept capability" in South Korea, although they added that it would not be fully operational for some months. Just hours after the announcement, Beijing lashed out at DC and demanded an "immediate halt" to the controversial US missile shield. China"s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang voiced the government’s position against the move during a briefing on Tuesday.

"We oppose the deployment of the US missile system to South Korea and call on all parties to immediately stop this process. We are ready to take necessary measures to protect our interests," he said according to AFP, adding that “China’s position on the THAAD issue has not changed."

THAAD missile captured during launch

As Reuters noted earlier, the spokesperson didn’t specify what "necessary measures" China had in mind. However, responding to the THAAD installation, last week China announced on Thursday that it will stage live-fire exercises and test new weapons to protect its security.

Curiously, while on one hand Beijing lashed out at the shield"s deployment, on the other, the foreign ministry expressed support for US President Donald Trump"s surprise comments that he would be "honored" to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un under the right conditions.

Asked about Trump"s remarks, Geng said that China "has always believed that dialogue and consultation... is the only realistic and viable way to achieve denuclearisation."

"We also said many times that the US and DPRK... should make political decisions at an early date, take action and show good faith so that we can create a better atmosphere for resuming the peace talks and settling the issue," he added.

Beijing has previously expressed loud concerns over the THAAD system and joint US-South Korean drills near the Korean Peninsula, consistently urging all the parties involved to find a peaceful solution to the volatile situation in the region. Backed by Russia, it also proposed a halt to military drills in exchange for an end to Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear tests during a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) session held in New York on Friday.

Moscow has likewise opposed the stationing of the THAAD system to be an “additional destabilizing factor for the region” amid alarmingly increasing tensions. It has called on Washington and Seoul to reconsider the decision.

In response to the THAAD deployment, China has imposed a host of measures seen as economic retaliation against South Korea, including a ban on tour groups. Retail conglomerate Lotte, which previously owned the golf course, has also been targeted, with 85 of its 99 stores in China shut down, while South Korea"s biggest automaker Hyundai Motor has said its Chinese sales have fallen sharply. The THAAD deployment comes as tension soars on the Korean peninsula following a series of missile launches by the North and warnings from the administration of US President Donald Trump that military action is an "option on the table."

Further complicating matters, Trump stunned Seoul last week when he suggested South Korea should pay for the $1 billion THAAD system. "I informed South Korea it would be appropriate if they paid. It"s a billion-dollar system," Trump was quoted as saying in a published report. "It"s phenomenal, shoots missiles right out of the sky."

Seoul retorted that under the Status of Forces Agreement that governs the US military presence in the country, the South would provide the THAAD site and infrastructure while the US would pay to deploy and operate it.

Meanwhile, Thomas Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that South Korea"s sole THAAD battery does not quite have the range to cover the entire country. But he called it an important first step. "This is not about a having a perfect shield, this is about buying time and thereby contributing to the overall credibility of deterrence," Karako told AFP.

"South Korea with THAAD helps communicate to the North that today is not a good day to attack. It doesn"t mean that they could not do a lot of damage -- they would -- but it strengthens the overall posture."

That, however, is irrelevant to China which sees the THAAD deployment as drastically shifting the regional balance of power; as such look forward to aggressive moves by Beijing which will now seek to enforce its own national interest, even if it means dstabilizing South Korea, while boosting Kim"s regime.

North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile Into East Sea As US Warns "Clock Has Run Out"

Update: Sec. of State Rex Tillerson has issued the following fascinatingly brief statement:

• “North Korea launched yet another intermediate range ballistic missile. The United States has spoken enough about North Korea. We have no further comment.”

* * *

Picking the worst possible time (or perhaps having it picked for it) to demonstratively launch a rocket, just as Trump and Xi are set to discuss the North Korea nuclear threat, with the US president reportedly prepared to announce that "“If China Is Not Going To Solve North Korea, We Will" and take unilateral action to eliminate any potential threats coming out of North Korea"s regime, moments ago South Korea"s Yonhap reported that North Korea on morning Wednesday fired a projectile suspected to be a ballistic missile toward the East Sea, military officials said.

The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff announced, "North Korea fired an unidentified projectile in Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, into the East Sea."

The launch was from Sinpo, a port city on the North"s east coast, and the missile flew about 60 km (40 miles), South Korea"s Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a short statement. Sinpo is the site of a North Korean submarine base.

Any launch of objects using the ballistic missile technology is a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions but the North has defied the ban as infringement of its sovereign rights to self defense and pursuit of space exploration, Reuters adds. North Korea attempted to launch a ballistic missile two weeks ago from its east coast and earlier in March fired four missiles toward Japan, some of which came as close as 300 km (190 miles) to Japan"s coast.

The North is believed to be developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that can hit the United States and its leader, Kim Jong Un, has vowed to test-launch one at any time. Experts and officials in the South and the United States believe Pyongyang is still some time away from mastering all the technology needed for an operational ICBM system, such as re-entry of the atmosphere and subsequent missile guidance.

Indicatively, topping the agenda of the U.S.-China summit in Florida will be whether Trump will make good on his threat to use crucial trade ties with China to pressure Beijing to do more to rein in the nuclear-armed North.

And while await to see if there will be an immediate retaliation by the US - recall "US Delta Force, SEAL Team 6 Prepare To Take Out Kim Jong-Un, Practice Tactical North Korea "Infiltration" - it is worth noting that just minutes earlier on Tuesday, a White House official said that the clock for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue "has now run out," and the United States is looking at "all options on the table" to deal with the problem, according to Reuters.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to preview the upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, also said that how to deal with North Korea is a "test of the relationship" between the U.S. and China.

"We would like to work on North Korea together. There is an opportunity," the official said during a conference call briefing. "We"ve been ... trying pretty much everything to bring about a safe and denuclearized peninsula. So this is some ways a test of the relationship." The official stressed the urgency of the problem, saying, "The clock is very, very quickly running out.

"We would have loved to see North Korea join the community of nations. They"ve been given that opportunity over the course of different dialogues and offers over the course of four administrations with some of our best diplomats and statesmen doing the best they could to bring about a resolution," the official said.

Needless to say, random gratuitous ballistic missile launches will not help, and if anything, may prompt the US to retaliate now that both Trump and Tillerson have said any provocation by North Korea will be met with a response.

On Sunday, Trump said in an interview with the Financial Times that China should help with the North Korea problem by using the "great influence" it has over Pyongyang, warning that if it doesn"t, the U.S. will solve the problem on its own, and that won"t be good for anyone. Trump also said he will use trade as an incentive for China to take action on the North.

On Tuesday, Trump said the North is a "humanity problem," and he will talk about the issue with China"s Xi.

"North Korea clearly is a matter of urgent interest for the president and the administration as a whole. I think the president has been pretty clear in messaging how important it is for China to coordinate with the U.S. and for China to begin exerting its considerable economic leverage to bring about a peaceful resolution to that problem," the White House official said.

"Certainly, it is going to come up in their discussions. Somewhere in the order of just shy of 90 percent of North Korea"s external trade is with China. Even though we hear sometimes that China"s political influence may have diminished, with North Korea, clearly its economic leverage has not. It is considerable and so that will be one of the points of discussion," he said.

The Trump-Xi meetings will also be watched closely as to whether the U.S. stands up to China for bullying South Korea for hosting the U.S. THAAD missile defense system designed to defend better against ever-growing missile threats from North Korea.

The White House official said that the deployment will go ahead as planned.

"We are familiar with China"s objections to THAAD. The United States will always act to defend our allies and to defend our homeland against any threat, particularly one of the nature of the North Korean regime with the kinds of terrible weapons that they"re developing. There will be no move away from protecting our South Korean allies and the United States," he said. The official also said that China"s retaliation against the South is "disturbing."

"South Korea is a responsible, friendly, economically dynamic democracy that is seeking together with its ally, the United States, to put in place defensive systems. It doesn"t make much sense and at some levels even is disturbing to be punishing South Korea for wanting to do that," the official said.

"If THAAD is a problem to other countries in the region, they need to look to North Korea," he said.

It is unclear if today"s launch provoked Seoul to respond with a THAAD response, one that will be frowned upon be Beijing and other countries in the region.

China Prepares Countermeasures Against South Korea Missile Shield

The recent deployment by South Korea of the controversial US-made Terminal High Altitude Area ­Defence (THAAD) anti-missile system in response to potential ballistic threats from North Korea, has led to a furious response by China, whose first-strike ability would be compromised under the existing military configuration.  And as BBC reports, "the deployment in South Korea of the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system has been slammed by Beijing. Now the Chinese Communist Party is calling on its people to embrace their ill will towards their neighbours" and notes that as anti South-Korea fever sweep China, local school students chant "Boycott Sth Korea!", and smash South Korean appliances as the "communist Party unleashes anti-Korea spirit."

However, while eliciting up a traditional nationalistic response by China was to be expected, what is more troubling is that according to the South China Morning Post, China is set to deploy anti-radar countermeasures which will neutralize the South Korean THAAD. The THAAD system consists of a sophisticated radar and interceptor missiles designed to spot and knock out incoming ballistic missiles.

Speaking to retired PLA general Wang Hongguang, the SCMP reports that China knew it might not be able to stop Seoul deploying a US anti-missile system "and was prepared to counter with its own anti-radar equipment." The comments came as a South Korean court’s decision to uphold the impeachment of former president Park Geun-hye had fanned hopes Seoul might put plans for the Terminal High Altitude Area ­Defence system on hold.  Park supported the installation of the system to help protect South Korea against threats from North Korea, which Beijing says can peer through China’s defences. However, such a de-escalation does not appear to be imminent.

Wang, former deputy commander of the Nanjing Military Region, said China could not take the chance the next South Korean president would change policy and roll back the deployment, and added that Beijing had measures in place to neutralize THAAD’s radars.

“We will complete our deployment before THAAD begins operations. There is no need to wait for two months [before the election of the next South Korean president],” he said on the sidelines of the political sessions in Beijing. “We already have such equipment in place. We just have to move it to the right spot.”

Going even further, Yue Gang, a military commentator and former People’s Liberation Army colonel, said China could either destroy THAAD or neutralise it. However, he hedged by adding that “destroying [THAAD] should only be an option during wartime." However, China could and would interfere with the system’s functions through electromagnetic technology, he said. Yue said an ideal place to install the Chinese equipment was on the Shandong peninsula on the country’s east coast, opposite South Korea.

Quoted by SCMP, Fu Qianshao, an aviation equipment expert with the PLA Air Force, said China could also send planes – manned or unmanned – to fly close to THAAD to interfere with its radar signals. All the country’s armed forces had the capacity to interfere with radar signals, Fu said.

Wang said China’s chief concern was not just with South Korea’s deployment of the American system but also the United States’ broader potential to contain the region in a sophisticated web of missile defence systems in Japan, Singapore, the Philippines and even Taiwan.

Stated differently, the ongoing diplomatic escalation between China and South Korea over THAAD is really just China lashing out against the ongoing interefence by the US, which seeks to blanket its allies in the region in a mesh that would eliminate China"s tactical first strike advantage, in the process putting the precariouar nuclear balance of power in the region in jeopardy, the same way that the deployment of the US Aegis ashore anti-missile shielf system in Eastern Europe has put Russia on edge, as it too, has lost its first strike capabilities, if only for now.  The question, for both China and Russia, is what deterrence they will unveil in response, as a "game theoretical" layout in which two nuclear-armed superpowers suddenly finds themselves questioning their offensive supriority never leads to favorable outcomes, at least in (game) theory.

US Begins Deployment Of Controversial THAAD Anti-Missile System To South Korea

Well that escalated quickly. Just a day after North Korea"s test firing of 4 missiles towards US bases in Japan, and hours after North Korea warned the world was "on the brink of nuclear war" due to US-South Korea "maneuvers," CNN reports the first pieces of the controversial US-built missile defense system (designed to mitigate the threat of North Korean missiles) arrived at the Osan Air Base in South Korea Monday night, according to the US military.

The decision in January to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system, had angered both Russian and Chinese officials:

"We think the US-South Korean decision to deploy the THAAD missile defense system has seriously threatened China"s security interest. For the region, it will also break the strategic balance. So it"s completely understandable to see countries in the region firmly oppose this decision," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said. "China and other countries have to address our own legitimate security concerns and take necessary measures to safeguard our security interest."

"Deployment of US missile defense systems in South Korea clearly goes beyond the tasks of deterring "the North Korean threat,"" Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said in October, according to Russian state-run Tass news agency.

And now - dramatically faster than expected - the deployment has begun.

Some equipments including 2 launch pads for U.S. missile defense system known as Thaad arrived in South Korea on Monday and will continue to be brought in, Yonhap News says, citing unidentified South Korean military official.

"Continued provocative actions by North Korea, to include yesterday"s launch of multiple missiles, only confirm the prudence of our alliance decision last year to deploy THAAD to South Korea," Adm. Harry Harris, commander, US Pacific Command, said in a news release.

US Secretary of Defense James Mattis and South Korean Defense Secretary Han Min-koo spoke over the phone last week and agreed that THAAD should be deployed "ASAP."

White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer signaled the deployment Monday when he told reporters that the United States is "taking steps to enhance our ability to defend against North Korea"s ballistic missiles, such as through the deployment of a THAAD battery to South Korea." U.S. defense officials confirmed to NBC News on Monday night that that meant delivery was already under way — not that the United States was simply restating its previous promises to send the system to South Korea sometime in the future.

The US and its allies in the region, notably South Korea and Japan, tend to focus on THAAD"s defensive nature. They tout its value as a system to prevent a missile from hitting a target and killing people.

"This is purely a defensive measure that the alliance must take in light of the serious threat posed by North Korean missiles," Chris Bush, a spokesman for the US Forces in Korea said.

But Beijing and Moscow don"t see it that way.

"We do not have any doubts that US, with support of their allies, will continue to build up the potential of the Asia Pacific segment of their global missile system, which will inevitably lead to disruption of established strategic balances both in the Asia Pacific and beyond."

Interestingly, it"s not just Russian and Chinese officials that are against the US deployment of THAAD; South Korean presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung and mayor of Seongnam City commented:

"We have to realize clearly that THAAD cannot stop the nuclear missiles coming from the DPRK. How can the 48 missiles of THAAD stop the over 1,000 missiles from the DPRK? The north of Chungcheongbuk-do and the capital area jointly account for more than half of our population and most of our territory. THAAD cannot even cover these areas, but merely increases the regional military tensions. To be honest, deploying THAAD will hurt both us and China. No one will gain anything from it. The starting point of THAAD is wrong, so we have to reconsider it completely. Otherwise, our future will be gloomy, chaotic and insecure."

Clearly the rush to get THAAD deployed counters any pre-emptive rejection by Lee. We are sure China"s response will be swift at this apparent "retaliation" by the US.

As Strategic Culture"s Nan Li previously noted, China is opposed to THAAD deployment for several reasons.

First, Chinese analysts believe that THAAD in South Korea is intended to intercept missiles launched, not from North Korea, but from China and Russia. THAAD has an operational range of 200 kilometers (km) and is designed to intercept missiles at altitudes between 40 and 180 km. Such altitudes, according to analysts from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), match the “terminal phase” of the intermediate, long-range and even intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), or those with ranges exceeding 3,500 km. PLA analysts also claim that they match the “mid-course phase” of medium-range missiles, or those with ranges between 1,000 and 3,500 km, including China’s DF-21 and DF-26 missiles. Because the direct threats to South Korea — including the Seoul area, where 40 percent of the South Korean population resides — are North Korea’s long-range artilleries and short-range ballistic missiles, THAAD, they believe, is clearly a mismatch against such threats.

Chinese analysts are particularly concerned about THAAD’s X-band radar. Even though it would be configured as a fire-control radar with a detection range of 600 km, it perhaps could be reconfigured as an early-warning radar, which allows a detection range exceeding 2,000 km. Such a range suggests that China’s missile activities on land and at sea in northern and eastern China may be mostly exposed. The radar allegedly can see the critical processes where warheads and decoys are released during China’s strategic missile tests. In times of war, it can undermine the reliability of China’s strategic deterrent because in comparison with Alaska-based radars, it is believed to be capable of acquiring more than ten minutes of early warning time against China’s strategic ballistic missiles. It can also differentiate real warheads from decoys. If integrated into the U.S. national missile defense network, this radar allegedly can increase the odds of success in intercepting Chinese missiles even at their “boost phase,” reducing further the reliability of China’s already small strategic deterrent and tilting the strategic balance in favor of the United States.

Moreover, Chinese analysts believe that the Korean Peninsula has historically been a nearby sphere critical to China’s security. They worry that by deploying THAAD, South Korea could share data with the United States and Japan on air traffic control, air defense, and early warning. This may help to integrate South Korea-based systems with U.S. and Japanese sensors and sea-based Aegis systems, with the goal of forming a trilateral strategic alliance to contain China at China’s door steps. Chinese analysts believe that North Korean nuclear tests were only an excuse used by the United States to deploy THAAD, the real U.S. intention being to drive a wedge between South Korea and China at a time when China-South Korea relations were improving substantially, as reflected in the countries’ booming bilateral trade and Park Geun-hye’s attendance at the Victory Day Parade in Beijing in September 2015. THAAD deployment would bring the United States and South Korea closer at the expense of China’s security. This could help the United States to stabilize U.S.-South Korea relations and prevent the possible loss of the U.S. military foothold on the Korean Peninsula.

Chinese analysts have proposed a wide range of countermeasures to retaliate against the THAAD deployment. They argue that to restore regional “strategic balance,” China should cooperate with Russia in developing strategic offensive weapons, particularly in developing “penetration” technologies that can defeat missile defense. Other proposed countermeasures include concealment and redeployment of China’s strategic capabilities to reduce their exposure to the THAAD radar, and accelerated development of China’s own missile defense systems. Other analysts argue for economic sanctions.

White House Is Exploring Use Of Military Force Against North Korea

An internal White House strategy review on North Korean options includes the possibility of both military force and regime change to counter the country’s nuclear-weapons threat, the WSJ reports, a prospect that has some U.S. allies in the region on edge. The review comes amid recent events have strained regional stability including last month"s launch by North Korea of a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan, and the assassination of the estranged half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Malaysia.

The WSJ adds that U.S. officials have underscored the possible military dimensions of their emerging strategy in recent discussions with allies, suggesting that the planning is at an advanced stage.

President Trump has taken steps to reassure allies that he won’t abandon agreements that have underpinned decades of U.S. policy on Asia, his pledge that Pyongyang would be stopped from ever testing an intercontinental ballistic missile—coupled with the two-week-old strategy review—has some leaders bracing for a shift in American policy. During Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s two-day summit in February with Mr. Trump, U.S. officials on several occasions stated that all options were under consideration to deal with North Korea, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

It was clear to the Japanese side that those options encompassed a U.S. military strike on North Korea, possibly if Pyongyang appeared ready to test an ICBM. The Japanese side found that scenario “worrisome,” he said.

The proposal emerged roughly two weeks ago, when Deputy National Security Adviser K.T. McFarland convened a meeting with national-security officials across the government and asked them for proposals on North Korea, including ideas that one official described as well outside the mainstream.

The request was for all options, ranging from U.S. recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state to military action against Pyongyang. Ms. McFarland’s directive was for the administration to undergo a comprehensive rethink of America’s North Korea policy.

The national-security officials reported back to Ms. McFarland with their ideas and suggestions on Tuesday. Those options now will undergo a process under which they will be refined and shaped before they’re given to the president for consideration.

In addition to concerns about US intervention, there is speculation that China may itself pre-empt a move by Washingont: the heightened prospect of U.S. military action in North Korea could encourage China, which fears the fallout of a military confrontation with its neighbor, to take steps Washington has long sought to choke off Pyongyang’s economic lifeline.

Another unknown is how South Korea will act. In the wake of Mr. Trump’s election, leaders in Tokyo and Seoul have sought to intensify the existing U.S. strategy of exerting economic and diplomatic pressure against North Korea. “We will make sure that the North changes its erroneous calculations by further enhancing sanctions and pressure,” South Korea’s acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn said in a speech on Wednesday.

The speech came on the same day that South Korea and the U.S. kicked off major annual military exercises, part of a long-running strategy of prioritizing defensive military preparedness to ward off North Korean aggression. As annual military exercises were set to begin, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis spoke Tuesday to South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-Koo, emphasizing that “any attack on the United States or its allies will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons will be met with a response that is effective and overwhelming,” said the Pentagon spokesman, Capt. Jeff Davis.

Finally, there is Japan, which is concerned it could get sucked into a regional conflict by a U.S. military strike on North Korea, said Tetsuo Kotani, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, a Tokyo think tank. Another fear for Japan is a scenario in which the U.S. instead holds talks with North Korea and reaches a deal that would lead to Washington disengaging from the region, he said.

Japan, under its pacifist constitution, remains heavily dependent on U.S. military support, not only to counter North Korea, but also China, which has stepped up a territorial challenge against Japanese-administered islands in the East China Sea.

“Direct talks between Mr. Trump and Kim Jong Un would be a nightmare scenario for Japan,” Mr. Kotani said.

Trump has recently stated the U.S.’s commitment to defending both Japan and South Korea to leaders of both countries. A spokeswoman for Japan’s foreign ministry declined to comment on the details of Mr. Abe’s talks with Mr. Trump, while a spokesman for South Korea’s foreign ministry couldn’t be reached for comment.

Meanwhile, in yet another potential escalation point, the U.S. is in the process of installing advanced missile defenses, known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, in South Korea. As part of that, South Korea said this week that it has completed a transfer of land needed as a station for the system, Capt. Davis said. In response to this deployment, on Wednesday China and Russia announced they have agreed to intensify their opposition to the US’ controversial THAAD missile defense system.

“Both sides said they will continue to strengthen their coordinated opposition to THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system),” the Chinese Foreign Ministry wrote on its website on Wednesday.

The statement follows a Tuesday meeting between China’s assistant foreign minister, Kong Xuanyou, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov in Beijing. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also released a statement, saying that “both parties emphasized that collective political and diplomatic efforts should be stepped up to ease tensions and initiate the process of military and political detente across the board in Northeast Asia, in order to create conditions conducive to resolving the nuclear issue, as well as other issue, on the Korean Peninsula.”

It comes after the South Korean government signed a land swap deal with retail giant Lotte on Tuesday, which will see the company exchange a golf course for military-owned land near Seoul. The golf course will become the future home of THAAD. THAAD is an advanced system designed to intercept short, medium, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles during their terminal flight phase. Equipped with long-range radar, it is believed to be capable of intercepting North Korea’s intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

China has repeatedly spoken out against THAAD over fears that it will undermine its own ballistic missile capabilities, and previously urged Seoul and Washington not to go ahead with the system’s planned deployment.

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor

Ahead of the Tuesday signing of the deal, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang warned of “consequences” against Washington and Seoul if the agreement were to go ahead, claiming the system “severely disrupts regional strategic balance and jeopardizes the strategic security interests of regional countries including China.”

China “will definitely take necessary measures to safeguard its security interests,” he said during a news briefing, adding that “all the consequences entailed will be borne by the US and the Republic of Korea.” Beijing has already taken measures which some claim are retaliatory against the deal, including halting Lotte’s multibillion dollar real estate project in China and canceling the visits of South Korean celebrities to the country.

As for Russia, the country previously urged those involved in the THAAD system to consider the escalated tensions it will inevitably cause. Last month, Moscow appraised the situation around the Korean Peninsula as “exhibiting a high likelihood of becoming volatile,” and emphasized the “counter-productiveness of the line being taken by certain governments in exacerbating these tensions and instigating an arms race in the subregion, as well as the increase in the scale of military drills.”

However, the US and South Korea maintain that THAAD is a defensive measure against Pyongyang. South Korean officials have said they expect the missile system to be deployed and operational this year, with one stating earlier this month that deployment could be completed by August.

* * *

And just like that, suddenly the very precarious peace in East Asia suddenly depends on the actions of an irrational dictator. While for now the US appears to be on the fence about a military intervention - or regime change - that will surely change should Kim Jong Un decide, unexpectedly, to launch another ballistic missile, something he is known to do with increasing frequency. Which means that suddenly the stability of a great part of Asia is in the hands of the man in the photo below.

THAAD Is Coming To China's Doorstep (But Beijing Has A Plan To Push Back)

Submitted by Nan Li via Strategic-Culture.org,

After months of negotiation, the United States and South Korea announced on July 8 their decision to deploy the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system in South Korea. During a press briefing, China’s Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said that Beijing is “firmly opposed to the proposed THAAD deployment… and will take necessary measures to maintain national strategic security as well as regional equilibrium”.

Why Is China Opposed to THAAD Deployment?

Chinese analysts are particularly concerned about THAAD’s X-band radar. Even though it would be configured as a fire-control radar with a detection range of 600 km, it perhaps could be reconfigured as an early-warning radar, which allows a detection range exceeding 2,000 km. Such a range suggests that China’s missile activities on land and at sea in northern and eastern China may be mostly exposed. The radar allegedly can see the critical processes where warheads and decoys are released during China’s strategic missile tests. In times of war, it can undermine the reliability of China’s strategic deterrent because in comparison with Alaska-based radars, it is believed to be capable of acquiring more than ten minutes of early warning time against China’s strategic ballistic missiles. It can also differentiate real warheads from decoys. If integrated into the U.S. national missile defense network, this radar allegedly can increase the odds of success in intercepting Chinese missiles even at their “boost phase,” reducing further the reliability of China’s already small strategic deterrent and tilting the strategic balance in favor of the United States.

Moreover, Chinese analysts believe that the Korean Peninsula has historically been a nearby sphere critical to China’s security. They worry that by deploying THAAD, South Korea could share data with the United States and Japan on air traffic control, air defense, and early warning. This may help to integrate South Korea-based systems with U.S. and Japanese sensors and sea-based Aegis systems, with the goal of forming a trilateral strategic alliance to contain China at China’s door steps. Chinese analysts believe that North Korean nuclear tests were only an excuse used by the United States to deploy THAAD, the real U.S. intention being to drive a wedge between South Korea and China at a time when China-South Korea relations were improving substantially, as reflected in the countries’ booming bilateral trade and Park Geun-hye’s attendance at the Victory Day Parade in Beijing in September 2015. THAAD deployment would bring the United States and South Korea closer at the expense of China’s security. This could help the United States to stabilize U.S.-South Korea relations and prevent the possible loss of the U.S. military foothold on the Korean Peninsula.

What Countermeasures Might China Take?

Chinese analysts have proposed a wide range of countermeasures to retaliate against the THAAD deployment. They argue that it is time to integrate technologies into Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles that can reinforce their penetration capabilities (????), such as those that can enhance mid-course or terminal maneuverability of warheads to dodge intercepting missiles. These technologies and measures also include integrating decoys to mislead the intercepting missiles, hardening warheads, and building more missiles. They also propose electronic countermeasures to jam THAAD radar. Some believe that China’s flight-tested DF-ZF supersonic missile delivery vehicle, which allegedly can reach the speed of Mach 10, can “turn all missile defense systems obsolete in one night.” Some also argue that in times of war, China should “at the first moment” launch strikes to destroy THAAD. To elude South Korea-based THAAD, Chinese analysts propose to deploy China’s strategic nuclear submarines to the Pacific Ocean for routine patrol. Being highly mobile and more concealed than China’s land-based nuclear deterrent, these submarines can enhance the survivability of China’s sea-based nuclear force, thus enhancing the credibility of China’s second strike nuclear capabilities.

Chinese analysts argue that to restore regional “strategic balance,” China should cooperate with Russia in developing strategic offensive weapons, particularly in developing “penetration” technologies that can defeat missile defense. Other proposed countermeasures include concealment and redeployment of China’s strategic capabilities to reduce their exposure to the THAAD radar, and accelerated development of China’s own missile defense systems.

A Moderate View?

While a majority calls for sanctions, there also exists a minority view based on a more nuanced and moderate interpretation of the THAAD deployment. On the effectiveness of THAAD to intercept short-range missiles, this view agrees that a launched North Korean Scud missile targeting Seoul may fly lower than 40 km because of the short range. This missile cannot be intercepted by THAAD because such low altitudes do not match the interception altitudes of THAAD, even though it can be intercepted by South Korea’s Patriot PAC-2/3 interceptors. But if a Scud missile is fired to hit a South Korean target 300 km away, it would reach the maximum height of 80 km and then descend to 40 km in slightly more than a minute, which matches the interception altitudes of THAAD. For this school of thought, a major challenge for South Korea is how to acquire sufficient defenses against North Korean missiles, while at the same time not undermining China’s strategic security. The best option, according to these analysts, is for South Korea to replace the current AN/TPY-2 radar with the Israeli Green Pine radar, which has an effective search range of 500 km. Such a range can provide South Korea sufficient protection against North Korean missiles, while posing no threat to China’s strategic missiles.

A Critique

China’s security analysts have offered great insights into why China is opposed to THAAD deployment in South Korea, and what countermeasures China might take to “maintain national strategic security as well as regional equilibrium.” However, a few important issues may require closer scrutiny in order to gain a balanced understanding of THAAD deployment in South Korea.

As pointed out by Chinese analysts, it is probably true that the interception altitudes of THAAD match the “terminal phase” of longer-range Chinese ballistic missiles, or those with ranges exceeding 3,500 km, including China’s ICBMs. Of note, however, is that these Chinese missiles are not intended for targets in East Asia. If launched, they are unlikely to have their “descending” or “terminal phase” in this region. So they are less likely to be intercepted by South Korea-based THAAD.

South Korea-based THAAD is more likely intended to intercept China’s medium-range ballistic missiles, or those with ranges between 1,000 and 3,500 km, including China’s DF-21 and DF-26 missiles. This is because these missiles may aim at military targets in the Asia-Pacific region, including U.S. military bases in Japan and on Guam, and its aircraft carrier strike groups deployed in this region. But because North Korea is also developing and deploying medium-range ballistic missiles, it is reasonable to assume that THAAD is intended to intercept both North Korean and Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles.

As mentioned earlier by some Chinese analysts, THAAD can be effective in intercepting a North Korean short-range ballistic missile attempting to hit a South Korean target 300 km away, because its “terminal phase” matches the interception altitudes of THAAD. It is also known that the North Korean ballistic missile arsenal consists mainly of hundreds of modified Scud missiles with ranges between 300 and 700 km. Because these missiles can hit any South Korean target beyond the Seoul area (which is protected by Patriot PAC2/3 interceptors), the primary objective for deploying THAAD in South Korea is in all likelihood for defending against short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea.

Chinese analysts believe that the X-band radar can gain more than ten minutes of early warning time compared to Alaska-based radars against Chinese strategic missiles flying toward the United States, which undermines the reliability of China’s already small strategic deterrent. Assuming this radar can easily be converted to an early-warning radar, however, whatever extra time it can contribute to early warning against Chinese missiles may become less significant for two reasons. One is that the two Japan-based X-band radars can also see the flight paths of Chinese missiles early and provide somewhat similar extra early warning time. The other is that the U.S. ballistic missile early-warning systems based on constellations of satellites, either deployed or under development such as the Space-Based Infrared System, may also be capable of provide early warning time sufficient to marginalize the contribution of the South Korea-based X-band radar.