Are We Really Capable Of Shooting Down North Korean Missiles?

Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

According to some analysts, Americans may be overly confident in our military’s ability to shoot down North Korean missiles if the country were to attempt to strike.

Maybe the reason we haven’t shot down North Korea’s test missiles is that we can’t. While we all certainly hope that our military would be able to successfully defend the country against incoming missiles, we need to be prepared for any possibility.

According to an article by Joe Cirincione of Defense One, the reason we don’t shoot down North Korea’s missiles when they fire them over Japan is because…

We don’t have the capability.

Joe Cirincione is the president of Ploughshares Fund and the author of several books about nuclear weapons, including Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before It Is Too Late.

According to Cirincione, when Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said, “We didn’t intercept it because no damage to Japanese territory was expected,” this was only partially true. It wasn’t a threat, but they didn’t have the capability to shoot it down due to the altitude.

Neither Japan nor the United States could have intercepted the missile. None of the theater ballistic missile defense weapons in existence can reach that high. It is hundreds of kilometers too high for the Aegis interceptors deployed on Navy ships off Japan. Even higher for the THAAD systems in South Korea and Guam. Way too high for the Patriot systems in Japan, which engage largely within the atmosphere.

All of these are basically designed to hit a missile in the post-mid-course or terminal phase, when it is on its way down, coming more or less straight at the defending system. Patriot is meant to protect relatively small areas such as ports or air bases; THAADdefends a larger area; the advanced Aegis system theoretically could defend thousands of square kilometers. (source)

Well, that’s unsettling. So, what if we engaged the missile before it reached that high?

Cirincione says that too is unlikely to be successful.

There is almost no chance of hitting a North Korean missile on its way up unless an Aegis ship was deployed very close to the launch point, perhaps in North Korean waters.

Even then, it would have to chase the missile, a race it is unlikely to win. In the only one or two minutes of warning time any system would have, the probability of a successful engagement drops close to zero. (source)

But don’t take Cirincione’s word for it. In his article, he cited other experts who echo his sentiments.  Jonathon McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, tweeted in response to someone questioning why we didn’t shoot down NK’s missiles:

As well, he quoted Jerry Doyle, deputy business editor for Asia at The New York Times:

“It’s actually virtually impossible to shoot down a missile on the way up. Midcourse or terminal are the only places you have a shot.” (source)

While I’m not sure how a business editor has special knowledge of our nuclear defense system, all of these sentiments certainly raise the question:

IF WE HAVE THE ABILITY TO SHOOT DOWN NORTH KOREAN MISSILES, WHY HAVEN’T WE DONE SO?

If we attempted to shoot down a North Korean missile and missed, it would be a major propaganda coup for Kim Jong Un.

When our military practiced this, they managed to shoot down 2 out of 3 missiles.

A lot of people are putting a great deal of hope in American missile defense systems, but it’s important to note that a couple of weeks ago in a test over the Pacific, our defense system failed. This was subsequent to a previous success.

A medium-range ballistic missile was launched from a test range in Hawaii at 7:20 pm local time, but the interceptor missile fired at sea from USS John Paul Jones, a guided-missile destroyer, missed the target.

 

“A planned intercept was not achieved,” the statement said. (source)

That’s disconcerting. After the failed test, there was a third test which was successful, but it’s very important to realize that our military isn’t infallible. If our rate is 2 out of 3 missiles shot down, that means that 1 out of 3 still gets through and wreaks destruction.

So, could we actually shoot down a missile “gift package” as Kim Jong Un creepily calls it?

The unsettling answer is, maybe.

Maybe, if we were expecting it, if the conditions were right, if we were close enough, if it was low enough, if we were in a perfect position.

There are way too many “ifs” in there for me to feel fully confident in our ability to shoot down North Korean missiles before they strike the mainland, which experts now believe they have the ability to reach. We also know that North Korea also possesses the ability to create hydrogen bombs. And as I’ve written before, if you believe this is all a big set up for a false flag event, that would hardly matter to those nearby if such a thing were to happen.

If you aren’t prepped for the potential of a nuclear strike, it’s time to start learning what you need to do. (This article and this class can help you.)

US Commanders To Issue "Rare Warning" To N.Korea As Kim Threatens "Merciless Revenge"

As the Ulji Freedom Guardian joint military drills begin near the Korean Peninsula, North Korea"s Kim has threatened "merciless revenge" against the "US Imperialists and South Korean war maniacs" for ignoring his warnings. North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency reports that:

The US imperialists and the South Korean war maniacs launched the Ulji Freedom Guardian joint military drills aimed at a preemptive attack on the DPRK.

Despite the repeated warnings of the DPRK, they have kicked off the war in the pretext of resolving "countering" the "provocation by the north." This is aimed at igniting a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula at any cost.

What is more serious is the fact that on the eve of the war exercises, American troops, including US Pacific Commander and Strategic Commander, flew to the South, contributing far more US troops from overseas, as well as seven vassal states including Australia and Britain.

The Korean peninsula has plunged into a critical phase due to the reckless north-targeted war racket of the war maniacs.

As Bloomberg notes, KCNA further cites an unidentified military spokesman as saying it would be a misjudgment for the U.S. to think that North Korea will “sit comfortably without doing anything” during the U.S.-South Korea joint military drills.

Ongoing drills and visits of U.S. military officials to South Korea create the circumstances for a "mock war" on the Korean peninsula, KCNA says.

U.S. can’t avoid "merciless revenge" by North Korea.

U.S. should never forget North Korea is watching its moves closely with "fingers on triggers, ready to pour a fire shower of penalties at any time"

Additionally, adding further tension, Yonhap reports that three top U.S. military commanders plan to issue a "strong warning message" to North Korea in a rare joint press availability here later Tuesday, officials said.

Pacific Command chief Adm. Harry Harris, Strategic Command head Gen. John Hyten and Missile Defense Agency Director Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves are scheduled to hold a press conference at a local U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) base.  It"s quite unusual for the U.S. commanding generals serving abroad to gather in South Korea and release public statements together.

It apparently reflects Washington"s alertness against North Korea"s rapid development of nuclear bombs and missiles.

Given the fact that the US Navy has had two "accidental collisions" with slow-moving vessels in recent months, what are the chances this all ends without incident?

Norway On The Way To Become Unfriendly Neighbor In Russia's Eyes

Authored by Peter Korzun via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Norway is executing a drastic change in its military policy, towards a far more aggressive posture. A total of 330 US Marines have been stationed for a trial period from January at the Vaernes military base east of Trondheim. The deployment marks the first time since World War II that foreign troops have been allowed to station in Norway. Last year, the Norwegian Parliament approved a one-year trial period for the US military presence, including two six-month rotations. Now it is planned to double the Marines presence in the country from 330 to 650 soldiers. Norway and the United States are now discussing the usefulness of continuing this agreement beyond 2017.

The airport in Nord-Trøndelag can become a major military air base. The US Marine Corps Prepositioning Program-Norway, already stores large amounts of military equipment in caves. The caves currently hold enough to equip a fighting force of 4,600 Marines. The US military plans to enlarge the stockpile allowing it to store enough weapons and equipment for a Marine Expeditionary Brigade (up to 16, 000 servicemen). Planners are completing an analysis of the current gear cache that should wrap up in the next 12 months.

There are other plans to increase US military presence in the country. Last summer, a study group from the US Navy visited both Andøya and Evenes airports in northern Norway to see if they could host American P-8 Poseidon patrol aircraft.

According to Washington-based Center for Strategic and international Studies (CSIS) report, «The former Royal Norwegian Navy base at Olavsvern is ideal for supporting submarine operations in the extreme North Atlantic and Arctic Seas». The paper says it may be possible for Norway to nationalize and reopen a portion of the facility to support the rotational presence of US submarines. Olavsvern is NATO’s closest naval base to the Kola Peninsula. The paper notes that the United States needs to leverage its bilateral relationships with Norway in order to develop and deploy a new generation of undersea sensing capabilities.

The construction of sophisticated new radar system known as Globus 3 in Vardø has started. Formally, the radar’s mission is to track space debris but it’s an open secret that the site is an element of the US-led NATO ballistic missile defense (BMD).

The radar located in Svalbard (the Arctic) can also be used by US military for missile defense purposes. The site has been frequently visited by US officials and politicians. This radar is installed in violation of the 1925 treaty which states that Svalbard has a demilitarized status.

Norway used to be skeptical toward the BMD plans. In 2002, Norway condemned the US decision to pull out from the ABM Treaty. Jens Stoltenberg, the current NATO General Secretary, was skeptical about the system at a summit in Moscow in 2007. But Prime Minister Erna Solberg announced the decision to join the NATO missile defense in 2015 – the same year Norwegian ships participated with radar sensors in an allied BMD exercise.

The joint American-Norwegian radar project is an openly hostile move, which has become an irritant to negatively affect the Russian-Norwegian bilateral relationship. The missile shield will alter the strategic balance—giving Washington and NATO the ability to launch a first nuclear strike on Russia and prevent it from launching a counter-strike. Besides, the radar will be used for intelligence collection being stationed just 40 miles from the Russian Kola Peninsula where strategic submarines and other military assets are based.

According to Professor Theodore Postol, a professor at Massachusetts Technological Institute and a well-known scholar, Norway «would be dragged into a conflict between the great powers… The radar in Vardø is of the type GBR-P, formerly deployed on the Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific. It was formerly intended to be the most important radar in the US missile shield, to be deployed in the Czech Republic».

«Norway has to understand that after becoming an outpost of NATO, it will have to face head-on Russia and Russian military might», Teimuraz Ramishvili, Russian ambassador to Oslo, told Norway’s state broadcaster, NRK. «Therefore, there will be no peaceful Arctic anymore». Formally, the radar’s mission is to track space debris but it’s an open secret that the site is part of US global ballistic missile defense (BMD) system, making Norway a prime target for attack in the event of a conflict.

Norway plans to have over 50 US-produced F-35 stealth warplanes in 2019. It will give it the capability to strike deep into the Russian territory. It underscores the fact that Norway would rapidly be drawn into any war that NATO launched against Russia. Indeed, the preparations unquestionably make Norway a target for Russian military action.

The US military presence represents a shift from the peacetime policy of prohibiting the posting of foreign troops in Norway. Before joining NATO in 1949, Norway pledged not to allow deployment of foreign military on its soil «as long as it is not under attack or threat of attack.» No Norwegian government has said it is threatened by Russia. Quite to the contrary, just a few days ago Prime Minister Erna Solberg said that she doesn"t consider Russia to be a threat to Norway"s security in an interview with German DW. According to her, Oslo and Moscow have a «good partnership», especially in the Arctic. «We don"t believe that Russia is a direct threat to Norway, but we believe that Russia has become more unpredictable in its policies», the PM noted. Hardly so, Russia is very much predictable because it has no alternative to taking measures in response.

The border between Russia and Norway has been peaceful for centuries. The two countries have always been good neighbors. It is all changing now. Foreign troops on Norwegian soil and the construction of the new radar are parts of unfriendly policy toward Russia, which believes that the provocative moves are unacceptable. Perhaps, it should be taken into account by Norwegian politicians as the country nears the parliamentary elections in the fall.

China Demands "Immediate Halt" Of US Missile Shield Deployment In South Korea

As we pointed out earlier today, Reuters cited US military officials who said that the U.S. military"s THAAD anti-missile defense system has "reached initial intercept capability" in South Korea, although they added that it would not be fully operational for some months. Just hours after the announcement, Beijing lashed out at DC and demanded an "immediate halt" to the controversial US missile shield. China"s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang voiced the government’s position against the move during a briefing on Tuesday.

"We oppose the deployment of the US missile system to South Korea and call on all parties to immediately stop this process. We are ready to take necessary measures to protect our interests," he said according to AFP, adding that “China’s position on the THAAD issue has not changed."

THAAD missile captured during launch

As Reuters noted earlier, the spokesperson didn’t specify what "necessary measures" China had in mind. However, responding to the THAAD installation, last week China announced on Thursday that it will stage live-fire exercises and test new weapons to protect its security.

Curiously, while on one hand Beijing lashed out at the shield"s deployment, on the other, the foreign ministry expressed support for US President Donald Trump"s surprise comments that he would be "honored" to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un under the right conditions.

Asked about Trump"s remarks, Geng said that China "has always believed that dialogue and consultation... is the only realistic and viable way to achieve denuclearisation."

"We also said many times that the US and DPRK... should make political decisions at an early date, take action and show good faith so that we can create a better atmosphere for resuming the peace talks and settling the issue," he added.

Beijing has previously expressed loud concerns over the THAAD system and joint US-South Korean drills near the Korean Peninsula, consistently urging all the parties involved to find a peaceful solution to the volatile situation in the region. Backed by Russia, it also proposed a halt to military drills in exchange for an end to Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear tests during a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) session held in New York on Friday.

Moscow has likewise opposed the stationing of the THAAD system to be an “additional destabilizing factor for the region” amid alarmingly increasing tensions. It has called on Washington and Seoul to reconsider the decision.

In response to the THAAD deployment, China has imposed a host of measures seen as economic retaliation against South Korea, including a ban on tour groups. Retail conglomerate Lotte, which previously owned the golf course, has also been targeted, with 85 of its 99 stores in China shut down, while South Korea"s biggest automaker Hyundai Motor has said its Chinese sales have fallen sharply. The THAAD deployment comes as tension soars on the Korean peninsula following a series of missile launches by the North and warnings from the administration of US President Donald Trump that military action is an "option on the table."

Further complicating matters, Trump stunned Seoul last week when he suggested South Korea should pay for the $1 billion THAAD system. "I informed South Korea it would be appropriate if they paid. It"s a billion-dollar system," Trump was quoted as saying in a published report. "It"s phenomenal, shoots missiles right out of the sky."

Seoul retorted that under the Status of Forces Agreement that governs the US military presence in the country, the South would provide the THAAD site and infrastructure while the US would pay to deploy and operate it.

Meanwhile, Thomas Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that South Korea"s sole THAAD battery does not quite have the range to cover the entire country. But he called it an important first step. "This is not about a having a perfect shield, this is about buying time and thereby contributing to the overall credibility of deterrence," Karako told AFP.

"South Korea with THAAD helps communicate to the North that today is not a good day to attack. It doesn"t mean that they could not do a lot of damage -- they would -- but it strengthens the overall posture."

That, however, is irrelevant to China which sees the THAAD deployment as drastically shifting the regional balance of power; as such look forward to aggressive moves by Beijing which will now seek to enforce its own national interest, even if it means dstabilizing South Korea, while boosting Kim"s regime.

Russia Warns Norway Over Missile Defense Plans

Authored by Alex Gorka via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Russia has warned Norway over consequences of joining NATO ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans. According to Russian ambassador to Oslo, Moscow will retaliate. Norway"s possible accession to NATO"s missile shield «will be a new factor that will be considered in our strategic planning as the emergence of an additional problem in the Arctic region», Teimuraz Ramishvili told the Norwegian state media network NRK.

In 2017, Norway may become a part of BMD. The Norwegian government has appointed an expert group to consider a possible Norwegian contribution to the missile shield. A detailed report on the issue is currently being prepared by experts from the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment and the US Missile Defense Agency to be submitted the year.

Norway has no interceptors on its soil but there are other ways to contribute into the anti-missile plans. Denmark does not host missiles but it committed itself to the bloc’s BMD in 2014, working to equip its frigates with advanced radar systems capable of detecting and tracking ballistic missiles. The missile defense program continues to be implemented despite the fact that after the nuclear agreement with Iran in 2015, there is no rationale for it.

?slo is a participant in the US-led Maritime Theater Missile Defense Forum. The Norwegian contribution to the missile defense system has not yet been decided on. Even without interceptors, Norway could contribute by integrating into the BMD system its Globus II/III radar in the Vardøya Island located near the Russian border just a few kilometers from the home base of strategic submarines and 5 Aegis-equipped Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates. The Vardøya radar can distinguish real warheads from dummies.

Another radar located in Svalbard (the Arctic) can also be used by US military for missile defense purposes. Senior US officials and politicians have visited the site during the last few years, including former Defense Secretary Ash Carter, former State Secretary John Kerry and Republican Senator John McCain. The radar is installed in violation of the 1925 treaty which states that Svalbard has a demilitarized status. The visitors invented different reasons, like viewing the effects of climate change (John Kerry) or highlighting the plight of polar bears (John McCain) to justify the need to inspect the site.

Installation of BMD sites might potentially undermine the efficiency of Russian strategic nuclear forces as a means of deterrence.

Norway is executing a drastic change in its military policy towards a far more aggressive posture. Even though the country is small, it has the sixth biggest military budget per capita, after the United States, Israel, Singapore and some ‘monarchies’ in the Persian Gulf. The country spends 7.3 billion dollars on the military, more than Sweden (5.7 billion), a country with twice the population. Its geographic position makes it a key element of NATO military planning. The nation’s leading political parties want an increased focus on ‘strategic assets’ like F-35, capable of striking deep into Russian territory, submarines and surveillance capabilities. 

Norway hosts 330 US Marines in the central areas of the country, formally on a ‘rotating’ basis. The rotation does not change the fact that the forces are permanently present in Norway. They are deployed at the Vaernes military base, about 1,500 km (900 miles) from the Russian territory, but the training program involves traveling closer to the border. Norway and Russia share a small land border far in the north.

The Marines can be easily reinforced. The US forward storage areas have been upgraded to store cutting edge weapons and equipment for about 16,000 Marines. Building up stockpiles is a key part of US strategy to enhance its capabilities in Europe. There are plans to warehouse tanks, artillery and other fighting vehicles at other locations around the Old Continent.

The only purpose for the deployment is preparation for an attack against Russia. The Marines are first strike troops. The provocative move is taking place at the time the Russia-NATO relationship hit a new low as the bloc’s forces deploy in Eastern Europe and tensions run high in the Black Sea and elsewhere. According to Heather Conley, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies" Europe Program, Northern Europe is now being viewed as a «theatre of operations».

There are other plans to increase US military presence in Norway. According to a report of Washington-based Center for Strategic and international Studies (CSIS), «The former Royal Norwegian Navy base at Olavsvern is ideal for supporting submarine operations in the extreme North Atlantic and Arctic Seas». The think tank believes it may be possible for Norway to nationalize and reopen a portion of the facility to support the rotational presence of US, UK, French, and Norwegian submarines. Olavsvern was NATO’s closest naval base to Russia’s submarine bases along the coast of the Kola Peninsula west of Murmansk.

It was reported last year that a study group from the US Navy visited both Andøya and Evenes airports in northern Norway to see if any of the two airports could be suitable to serve as a base for American P-8 Poseidon patrol aircraft.

The deployment of NATO forces to Norway is clearly a provocative act directed at Moscow. Norway shares a 121 mile border with Russia, while the Russian Northern Fleet is based in the Murmansk region, approximately 100 miles from the border.

Norway has pledged not to host foreign forces on its territory. It had stashed stockpiles of weapons in preparation for a possible conflict, but until recently, foreign troops were allowed into the country only temporarily for training purposes. Oslo had adhered to this principle even at the height of the Cold War.

Shifting away from the «no foreign forces on national soil» policy is fraught with consequences. Turning the national territory into a spearhead for an offensive against Russia inevitably makes Norway a target for a retaliatory strike. Russia did not start it. Actually, very few NATO members take part in the BMD plans. The decision to join would be seen as an outright provocation staged by a neighboring state. By doing so, Norway will deteriorate the relations and greatly reduce its own security which can only be achieved through developing of partnership and strengthening of centuries of good neighborly relations.

US Military Deploys Nuke-Spotting Radar To Monitor North Korea

The Sea-based X-Band Radar has deployed out of Pearl Harbor after North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un recently said his country was in the "final stages" of test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile. Media sources reported that the SBX was being sent about 2,000 miles northwest of Hawaii to watch for a possible North Korean launch in coming months. The Pentagon downplayed the floating radar"s Monday departure.

As The Honolulu Star Advertiser reports, dispatching the "SBX" out to sea sends "a very clear strategic message of deterrence to the ICBM threat of the North Korean leader that has intensified since first announced on Jan. 1," said Riki Ellison, chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, a Virginia-based nonprofit that advocates a strong U.S. missile defense.

Media sources reported that the SBX was being sent about 2,000 miles northwest of Hawaii to watch for a possible North Korean launch in coming months. The Pentagon downplayed the floating radar"s Monday departure.

"The SBX"s current deployment is not based on any credible threat; however, we cannot discuss specifics for this particular mission while it is underway," Navy Cmdr. Gary Ross, a Defense Department spokesman, said in an email.

Kim said in a Jan. 1 speech that North Korea was prepping for an ICBM test launch.

"The SBX deployed in the Pacific Ocean enhances and boosts the probability of kill for each of the current 37 and soon to be 44 (ground-based interceptors) in both Alaska and California, if fired at a North Korean ICBM," Ellison said Thursday in an MDAA release.

If the North Korean test ICBM does not target U.S. or allied territory, the SBX would be in a position "to collect invaluable precision data on the warhead and debris of a North Korean ICBM test-flying in space," the release said.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter also suggested this week that the United States might just monitor the launch if it didn"t appear to be a threat.

The more than 280-foot-tall SBX is topped by a golf ball-like dome containing a phased array radar and is a hard-to-miss sight at its mooring off Ford Island. The powerful radar, which is only operated at sea, acquires, tracks and discriminates the flight characteristics of ballistic missiles.

TheUnion of Concerned Scientists reported $2.2 billion SBX is designed for long-range precision tracking and discrimination of warheads from other objects, but it "has a number of serious limitations, including a very limited electronic field of view."

 Based on shortcomings of the SBX, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency announced plans to develop by 2020 a long-range discrimination radar in Alaska, the scientific group said.