Inventory Levels Of These GM Plants Still In "Danger Zone" Even After 2 Hurricanes And 6,000 Job Cuts

Over the past two months, General Motors" stock has rallied nearly 30% on the notion that hurricanes in Texas and Florida solved the company"s nagging inventory problem.  But, even after two of the most devastating hurricanes in U.S. history wiped out hundreds of thousands of vehicles and GM"s preemptive elimination of some 6,000 jobs, Automotive News says the company still has a ways to go at certain plants if they want to bring system-wide inventories down to healthy levels. 

Even after cutting more than 6,000 jobs this year, General Motors might need to further shrink its manufacturing operations to address bloated inventories of some vehicles amid plateauing U.S. sales and pressure from Wall Street to avoid overproduction.

 

The majority of GM"s U.S. assembly plants, including some where a shift already has been eliminated, produce vehicles that on average have at least an 80-day supply, 33 percent more than what the industry generally considers healthy, according to estimates from the Automotive News Data Center.

 

"The danger zone is definitely consistently staying in that 80 to 100 days," said Joe Langley, a senior analyst at economic forecasting and data company IHS Markit. "The ultimate red flag is when volume is at that 120 days or more consistently and incentives aren"t moving the needle."

 

GM has at least seven U.S. assembly plants that on average produced vehicles with greater than an 80-day supply entering October, including four that have more than 100 days, according to the estimates. That does not include GM"s two U.S. plants for the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, because pickups commonly have higher inventories to meet demand for a variety of trim and feature configurations.

Making matter worse, it"s not just small passenger cars where GM is currently oversupplied as the company is sitting on 125 days worth of GMC Canyons and roughly 80 days worth of other "popular" pickup truck models.

Inventory numbers point to the potential for a cutback in Wentzville, which has run around the clock since spring 2015. It makes the Chevrolet Express and GMC Savana full-size vans and the Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon midsize pickups. Slowing sales have left GM with an estimated 84-day supply of those vehicles as of Oct. 1, including 81 days" worth of Colorados and 125 days" worth of Canyons.

 

"The Colorado and Canyon have sold far better than they thought they would," said Ron Harbour, a consultant with Oliver Wyman. "At this point, they"re trying to figure out if this is a long-term trend or not."

 

Langley, the IHS analyst, said he thinks GM would need to cut a shift in Wentzville by next summer if inventories remain elevated.

 

"That"s the one big plant on the truck side that concerns me for getting a shift reduction," Langley said. "That plant is running at a level it was never designed for either. That"s been the story for a lot of these factories."

Of course, no matter how bad the company"s persistent inventory problem looks on paper, there is one group that simply couldn"t care less: GM shareholders.

Chevy Forced To Extend Shutdown Of Bolt Plant After Realizing That Literally No One Wants A Bolt

General Motors launched it"s much-hyped, all electric Chevy Bolt at the end of 2016.  The Bolt was expected to make a splash as it was the first electric car in the U.S. market to offer 200 miles of driving range at an affordable price starting around $35,000.  The only problem is that pretty much no one seems to want one.

Unfortunately, that lack of demand is about to earn a bunch of UAW workers at GM"s Orion, Michigan plant an extended summer vacation.

As AOL Finance points out today, GM has managed to sell just over 7,500 Chevy Bolts through the first six months of 2017.  Moreover, since dealers are sitting on about 111 days worth of inventory, we"re going to go out on a limb and say the Bolt launch slightly underperformed expectations.  All of which has resulted in GM"s decision to extend the shutdown currently in effect at it"s Orion plant for just a little while longer.

General Motors Co has extended a shutdown at the Michigan factory that builds the new Chevrolet Bolt electric car as part of a broader effort to get control of bulging inventories of unsold vehicles in the United States.

"Shutdown periods vary by plant based on launch timing of new or refreshed models across the portfolio and our ongoing efforts to align production with market demand," GM said in a statement.

But it"s not just the Chevy Bolt that GM is having a hard time selling.  Overall, the company is battling a massive inventory glut, some 126 days of supplies, in passenger cars.  As such, the company has extended summer vacation shutdowns at three other North American assembly plants. The assembly plant at Lordstown, Ohio, that makes the Chevrolet Cruze and a plant near Kansas City, Missouri, that produces the Malibu sedan both have three additional weeks of downtime. An assembly plant in Oshawa, Ontario, will be idled for two extra weeks to reduce inventories of the Chevrolet Impala large sedan.

Of course, this shouldn"t be much of a surprise for our readers as we recently pointed out that GM"s "channel stuffing" hit a new all time high for the restructured company in June 2017, with the number of GM vehicles parked at dealer lots and patiently waiting for a buyer rising to the highest since the summer before recession officially began, when GM was still pre-bankruptcy GM, with far greater (if ultimately superfluous and in need of restructuring) production.

All of which kind of makes you wonder just how well that other, highly-anticipated, mass-produced, affordable, all-electric vehicle will perform when/if it officially starts to ship later this year.

First Production Model 3 pic.twitter.com/TCa2NSUNI3

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 9, 2017

GM Reports Record "Channel Stuffing": Dealer Auto Inventory Highest Since June 2007

As we await all US carmakers to report June auto sales, we remind readers that when we discussed last month"s disappointing monthly car sales report, which badly missed expectations showing the fifth consecutive month of declining auto sales - the first time this has happened since July 2009 -  with domestic light vehicle auto sales printing at an annualized 12.59, the lowest sales number going back more than three years - we noted what may be the biggest concern for the auto industry: inventory days continued to trend higher as OEMs push product on to dealer lots even though sale-through to end customers has seemingly stalled.

Of note, we highlighted GM, one of the few OEMs to actually disclose dealer inventories in monthly sales releases, which reported that May inventories increased to 101 days (963,448 vehicles) from 100 days at the end of April and just 71 days (681,402 vehicles) in April 2016. Indicatively, analysts say an overall inventory level of 60 to 70 days is healthy. 100 is not. GM management was eager to deflect attention from this troubling statistic, and said that soaring inventories are normal and, somehow, "reflect strong sales", as per the press release: "As planned, GM’s inventories reflect strong sales, lower car production and strategic, launch-related growth in truck and crossover stocks."

Or maybe not, because as Automotive News reporter Nick Bunkley pointed out something troubling: with 935,758 unsold GM units collecting dust in dealer lots at the end of June, this was the highest inventory number in 9.5 years,  the highest since November 2007, one month before the recession began.

Fast forward to today when GM reported its June results which again disappointed, and were down 4.7%, more than the expected 3.4% decline (although one wouldn"t know it by looking at the stock which was up as much as 3%). GM sales were dragged by most brands: Chevy -6.4%, GMC -3.6%, Buick +16.4%, Cadillac -11.8%. But that"s not what caught our attention: a bigger problem is what GM revealed in its deliveries report which disclosed a whopping 980,454 units in dealer inventory at the end of June, up nearly 17k from the past month, and representing 105 days of supply, up from an already red-flag raising 101 in May. As Buntkley notes, "GM"s inventory has officially hit a 10-year high. 980,454 units in stock (a 105-day supply) as of June 30, the most since June 2007."

???? GM"s inventory has officially hit a 10-year high. 980,454 units in stock (a 105-day supply) as of June 30, the most since June 2007.

— Nick Bunkley (@nickbunkley) July 3, 2017

In short: GM "channel stuffing" just hit a new all time high for the restructured company, with the number of GM vehicles parked at dealer lots and patiently waiting for a buyer rising to the highest since the summer before recession officially began, when GM was still pre-bankruptcy GM, with far greater (if ultimately superfluous and in need of restructuring) production.

US Auto Dealers Forced To Rent First "Overflow Lots" In 37 Years Amid Inventory Glut

Yesterday we noted that GM launched an aggressive incentive program in the month of February to clear out some of its pickup truck inventory.  In fact, incentives on the company"s Silverado were up 56% YoY to $6,996, while discounts on the Sierra were up 82% to $5,315 (see "GM Pickup Incentives Surge Over 80% As Auto Bubble Continues To Show Signs Of An Imminent Bust"). 

But apparently GM isn"t the only auto OEM who may have had to splurge on incentive spending in February to clear out inventory piling up on dealer lots.  Inventory days across the industry are up massively YoY and stood at 85 days at the beginning of February, up 22 days from January 1st and up 8 days compared to the same time last year.  As one Honda dealer told Bloomberg, the inventory pile up at his dealership has become so excessive that for the first time in 37 years of business he was forced to rent an overflow lot to park unsold cars in February.

For the first time in his 37 years working at New Jersey car dealerships, Larry Kull had to rent extra space to store unsold new Honda vehicles -- one of the latest signs that the record U.S. auto market is cooling.

Across dealer lots in America, inventory is piling up as automakers produce more cars than are being bought. Dealers had about 85 days worth of cars and trucks on hand at the beginning of February -- about 22 days more than at the beginning of 2017 and eight days more than a year earlier, according to Automotive News Data Center.

“The sales are good, I just have more product on the ground than I’ve had before,” said Kull, who has about 60 days of passenger cars including Civic compacts and Accord sedans stocked at an office parking lot down the road from his Honda store in Marlton, New Jersey. He prefers to have just 45 days worth of cars on hand.

Meanwhile, this news comes just as wall street prepares to digest new car sales data tomorrow.  Overall sales for February are expected to be down slightly while GM is expected to perform "best"  among the D3 on their massive incentive spending (though we"re not sure it"s much of a victory if you"re giving the cars way).

And the import brands are expected to have mixed results as well with VW benefiting from an easy YoY comp associated with their emissions scandal that effectively halted sales a year ago.

As we noted yesterday, there are only two ways to deal with the rising inventory conundrum: i) cut production or ii) splurge on incentives to sell more cars.  Unfortunately, financing terms for autos are about as loose as they can get and interest rates are now headed in the wrong direction so selling more cars the old fashioned way seems unlikely. 

Production cutbacks also have already begun. GM and Fiat Chrysler have eliminated shifts, laid off employees or scheduled days off early this year at plants making slower selling models including the Chevrolet Cruze compacts, Chrysler Pacifica minivans and Buick Lacrosse sedans.

While heavy inventory is a signal of potential pressure on automakers’ profits, it also boosts costs for dealers, which pay interest on inventory as well as any extra expense to store vehicles.

“No one likes to cut production or dial up incentives, and we’re seeing a bit of both,” Thomas King, an analyst with J.D. Power, said by phone. “We’ve got a lot of cars on the ground when the market is moving away from cars.”

Meanwhile, as one dealer points out, part of the inventory problem is a heavy mix towards cars when buyers are now looking to take advantage of low fuel prices and trade up to an SUV.

Raj Murjani, a sales manager at a Lexus dealership in Queens, said he’s selling about 40 or 50 fewer vehicles than usual this month. He sees the gap in popularity between SUVs and sedans continuing to widen, as low gasoline prices encourage consumers to switch to bigger vehicles.

“If it’s a person who’s been in a sedan and they got just the slightest taste of an SUV, they don’t ever want to go back,” he said. “They think going back into a sedan is a downgrade.”

Of course, we"re sure each of these buyers has done extensive modeling on the long-term equilibrium price for crude oil...

Trump Touts "People Are Seeing Big Stuff” After GM Unveils 7,000 New U.S. Jobs

Confirming rumors that leaked yesterday, GM has just announced plans to invest $1 billion in its U.S. manufacturing operations and add 7,000 jobs domestically, over the next "few years".  Of course, the move follows similar announcements from Ford and Fiat-Chrysler over recent weeks in an apparent effort to appease the incoming Trump administration amid threats of a 35% import tariff and after years of outsourcing automotive manufacturing jobs to Mexico.  To add icing to the cake, GM notes that 450 of the new jobs will come from insourcing jobs previously moved to Mexico.  Per General Motors:

General Motors today announced that it will invest an additional $1 billion in U.S. manufacturing operations. These investments follow $2.9 billion announced in 2016 and more than $21 billion GM has invested in its U.S. operations since 2009.

The new investments cover multiple new vehicle, advanced technology and component projects. A combination of 1,500 new and retained jobs are tied to the new investments. Details of individual projects will be announced throughout the year.

The company also announced it will begin work on insourcing axle production for its next generation full-size pickup trucks, including work previously done in Mexico, to operations in Michigan, creating 450 U.S. jobs.

"As the U.S. manufacturing base increases its competitiveness, we are able to further increase our investment, resulting in more jobs for America and better results for our owners,”  said GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra. “The U.S. is our home market and we are committed to growth that is good for our employees, dealers, and suppliers and supports our continued effort to drive shareholder value.”

“We will continue our commitment to driving a more efficient business,” said Barra, “as shown by our insourcing of more than 6,000 IT jobs that were formerly outside the U.S., streamlining our engineering operations from seven to three, with the core engineering center being in Warren, Michigan, and building on our momentum at GM Financial and in advanced technologies.  These moves, and others, are expected to result in more than 5,000 new jobs in the U.S. over the next few years.”

GM also highlighted their efforts to work with tier two suppliers to "insource" those manufacturing jobs as well. 

GM has also been facilitating its supplier base to do the same. The company has been executing a strategy to create supplier parks adjacent to its U.S. manufacturing sites (already accomplished at GM’s Fairfax Assembly Plant in Kansas, Spring Hill Assembly Plant in Tennessee, Fort Wayne Assembly Plant in Indiana, and Lordstown Assembly Plant in Ohio), and will continue to expand this effort. Supplier parks locating near assembly plants result in significant savings from reduced transportation costs, higher quality communications and continuous improvement activities as suppliers are located closer to the final assembly location.

In addition, GM is confirming that another supplier has committed to make components for GM’s next-generation full size pick-up trucks in Michigan, moving 100 supplier jobs from Mexico to the U.S.

And, or course, it didn"t take Trump long to declare victory on Twitter:

With all of the jobs I am bringing back into the U.S. (even before taking office), with all of the new auto plants coming back into our.....

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 17, 2017

country and with the massive cost reductions I have negotiated on military purchases and more, I believe the people are seeing "big stuff."

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 17, 2017

* * *

For those who missed it, here is what we posted yesterday:

Not a week seems to pass without some an automaker, foreign or domestic, making an unexpected round of concessions when it comes to Trump"s ambitions to "Make it in the US."

And so, days after first Ford, then Fiat Chrysler announced major expansion plans in the US (to the partial detriment of Mexico) the latest automaker to respond to Trump"s Twitter criticism is General Motors, which according to the WSJ, will announce this week plans to invest at least $1 billion across several U.S. factories "a move aimed at underlining its commitment to U.S. manufacturing jobs in the wake of President-elect Donald Trump’s criticism of the auto maker’s imports from Mexico."

The company will also announce that it will create more than 1,000 new jobs stemming from the investment but doesn’t plan to specify which of its factories are in line for more work.

The move comes days after Mr. Trump publicly ratcheted up pressure on the nation’s largest auto maker. During his press conference last week, the president-elect thanked Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles for recently announced U.S. investment plans that are expected to create a combined 2,700 jobs.

He then turned up the heat on GM to follow suit. “I hope that General Motors will be following. And I think they will be,” Mr. Trump said.

They did indeed, even if GM"s response was largely predictable. Recall that GM CEO Mary Barro was appointed to Trump"s Strategic and Policy Forum, which as a reminder "is composed of some of America’s most highly respected and successful business leaders, will be called upon to meet with the President frequently to share their specific experience and knowledge as the President implements his plan to bring back jobs and Make America Great Again."

It would look confusing if one of Trump"s own economic policy advisors looked the other way when practicing what Trump is preaching.

On January 3, Trump launched the opening salvo in this brief but productive "negotiation", when he tweeted that “General Motors is sending Mexican made model of Chevy Cruze to U.S. car dealers-tax free across border. Make in U.S.A.or pay big border tax!.”

General Motors is sending Mexican made model of Chevy Cruze to U.S. car dealers-tax free across border. Make in U.S.A.or pay big border tax!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2017

GM picked the middle option: to invest money in the US, creating new jobs.

In keeping with the narrative proferred by other carmakers, in an interview with the WSJ, GM general counsel Craig Glidden declined to confirm specifics of the announcement but said any investment the company might disclose has been long planned and isn’t a response to pressure from Mr. Trump.

“This is something we’ve been undertaking for some period of time,” he said. “It’s really getting our story told in a way that is I think complete and fulsome.”

GM Will Invest Over $1 Billion In New US Factories, Create More Than 1,000 Jobs

Not a week seems to pass without some an automaker, foreign or domestic, making an unexpected round of concessions when it comes to Trump"s ambitions to "Make it in the US."

And so, days after first Ford, then Fiat Chrysler announced major expansion plans in the US (to the partial detriment of Mexico) the latest automaker to respond to Trump"s Twitter criticism is General Motors, which according to the WSJ, will announce this week plans to invest at least $1 billion across several U.S. factories "a move aimed at underlining its commitment to U.S. manufacturing jobs in the wake of President-elect Donald Trump’s criticism of the auto maker’s imports from Mexico."

The company will also announce that it will create more than 1,000 new jobs stemming from the investment but doesn’t plan to specify which of its factories are in line for more work.

The move comes days after Mr. Trump publicly ratcheted up pressure on the nation’s largest auto maker. During his press conference last week, the president-elect thanked Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles for recently announced U.S. investment plans that are expected to create a combined 2,700 jobs.

He then turned up the heat on GM to follow suit. “I hope that General Motors will be following. And I think they will be,” Mr. Trump said.

They did indeed, even if GM"s response was largely predictable. Recall that GM CEO Mary Barro was appointed to Trump"s Strategic and Policy Forum, which as a reminder "is composed of some of America’s most highly respected and successful business leaders, will be called upon to meet with the President frequently to share their specific experience and knowledge as the President implements his plan to bring back jobs and Make America Great Again."

It would look confusing if one of Trump"s own economic policy advisors looked the other way when practicing what Trump is preaching.

On January 3, Trump launched the opening salvo in this brief but productive "negotiation", when he tweeted that “General Motors is sending Mexican made model of Chevy Cruze to U.S. car dealers-tax free across border. Make in U.S.A.or pay big border tax!.”

General Motors is sending Mexican made model of Chevy Cruze to U.S. car dealers-tax free across border. Make in U.S.A.or pay big border tax!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2017

GM picked the middle option: to invest money in the US, creating new jobs.

In keeping with the narrative proferred by other carmakers, in an interview with the WSJ, GM general counsel Craig Glidden declined to confirm specifics of the announcement but said any investment the company might disclose has been long planned and isn’t a response to pressure from Mr. Trump.

“This is something we’ve been undertaking for some period of time,” he said. “It’s really getting our story told in a way that is I think complete and fulsome.”

GM Responds To Trump: You're Wrong

In a terse and non-deferential response to president-elect Trump"s tweet, GM has responded with a statement which can be summarized in two words: "you"re wrong."

Following Trump"s tweet...

General Motors is sending Mexican made model of Chevy Cruze to U.S. car dealers-tax free across border. Make in U.S.A.or pay big border tax!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2017

... GM responded with its version of the facts, according to which all Cruze sedans are built in the US, while the Mexican-produced Chevy Cruze hatchback is built for global markets, "with a small number sold in the US"

General Motors manufacturers the Chevrolet Cruze sedan in Lordstown, Ohio.

All Chevrolet Cruze sedans sold in the U.S. are built in GM’s assembly plant in Lordstown, Ohio.

GM builds the Chevrolet Cruze hatchback for global markets in Mexico, with a small number sold in the U.S.

Now we await Trump"s counter response.