Showing posts with label economists. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economists. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Global Elitists: Bitcoin’s ‘Intrinsic Value Must Be Zero’, Bubble About To Burst


Allianz Global Investors, the investment arm of Europe’s biggest insurer, employees economists who say Bitcoin is absolutely worthless, and a bubble that’s about to burst. Allianz Global, which manages almost 500 billion euro, says Bitcoin “ticks off all the boxes” for a major asset bubble.


“In our view, its intrinsic value must be zero,” Stefan Hofrichter, the company’s head of global economics and strategy, wrote in a recent web post. “A bitcoin is a claim on nobody – in contrast to, for instance, sovereign bonds, equities or paper money – and it does not generate any income stream.”  Gold doesn’t generate an income stream either but has been a viable currency for over 2,000 years.


But according to Bloomberg, the investors at Allianz Global have more to say about Bitcoin. Additionally, they added that the world’s largest cryptocurrency “ticks all of the boxes” of the essential criteria for any asset bubble, including overtrading, “new-era” thinking and rising leverage, he wrote. Bitcoin mania is a textbook-like bubble, “one that is probably just about to burst.”


Hofrichter is far from the only person to make comments regarding Bitcoin’s value. Even Peter Schiff says the cryptocurrency is heading toward its “real worth” of $0.  University of Pittsburgh researchers have concluded it’s “an asset which has no value by traditional measures” and economist Nouriel Roubini called it the “biggest bubble in human history.”


Others, such as Jeff Berwick from The Dollar Vigilante, says that it isn’t the Bitcoin bubble we should worry about. We should be more concerned about the elites engineering an economic collapse and blaming the cryptocurrency as an excuse to ban or heavily regulate all sources of “money.” It is easier to believe the global elitists dislike Bitcoin, because of the mere fact that the currency is decentralized and regulating it is incredibly difficult.


But that doesn’t stop many in the global economy scene from continuing to bash Bitcoin while passively admitting the risks are small. “Bitcoin’s demise would have few spillover effects on the ‘real world,’ since the market for this cryptocurrency is still quite small in size,” Hofrichter said. “As a result, we believe that the risks to financial stability stemming from bitcoin are negligible — at least as of today.”


Google has also come out swinging against Bitcoin, saying it will ban ads for all cryptocurrency. Remember, the elites that run things are actively trying to keep things from the public.  There’s probably a very good reason why tech giants and the globalists who run them don’t want people involved in cryptocurrencies.  “Improving the ads experience across the web, whether that’s removing harmful ads or intrusive ads, will continue to be a top priority for us,” said Scott Spencer, Google’s director of sustainable ads, in a blog post. The post did not explain why digital currencies may be harmful.


This follows a similar move by Facebook as a part of an effort to” clear unregulated financial products off its platform.” Does anyone catch the keyword “unregulated” in there? If the elitists can’t control your money, they can’t control you.

Friday, March 2, 2018

Daniel Nevins: Economics for Independent Thinkers

This report was originally published by Adam Taggart at PeakProsperity.com



Economists are supposed to monitor and analyze the economy, warn us if risks are getting out of hand, and advise us on how to make things runs more effectively — right?


Well, even though that’s what most people expect from economists, it’s not at all how they see their role, warns CFA and and behavioral economist Daniel Nevins.


Economists, he cautions, are modelers. They pursue academic lines of thought in order to make their models more perfect. They live in a universe of equations and presumptions about equilibrium states and other chimerical mathematical perfections that don’t exist in real life.


In short, they are the wrong people to advise us, Nevins claims, as they have no clue how the imperfect world we live in actually works.


In his book Economics For Independent Thinkers, he argues that we need a new, more accurate and useful way of studying the economy:


However far you go back, you can find economists who had a more realistic approach to how humans actually behave, than the way that mainstreamers assume they behave in the models that the Fed uses to pick winners and losers.


You mentioned credit cycles, business environment, and behavioral economics. What I’ve done is to say, “Okay. We know that the modeling approach, the systems of equations approach doesn’t work. But instead of starting completely from scratch, what can we find in the economics literature that is maybe more realistic?”


And the interesting thing is that if you look at the work that was done, the state of the profession before the 1930s, before Keynesianism took hold, you can find a lot of work that was quite sensible.


I think where that points is towards this notion that when we think about economic volatility, there are really three things that we need to bring together:


One is the behavioral side. And we have to be realistic about the way that people really process information, the way that they truly make decisions.


The second has to do with the way businesses operate and all the challenges that businesses face to gain and retain profitability. That’s something that economists were intently focused on before Keynesianism and then it became kind of sidelined afterwards because all of these models assumed that businesses didn’t have any challenges.


If you pick apart the standard models that the Fed uses that are taught in PhD programs, they assume that business are always profitable, they always sell all of their output instantaneously, and they know exactly what their customers want, and businesses don’t struggle. So, that’s another thing we need to correct that you can find a lot of useful research if you know where to look (before Keynesianism and at the nontraditional schools that have continued in the older approaches).


And then the third thing is the credit side where mainstream economics is just so off-target, especially in their models that exclude any role for banks. Effectively, mainstream economists have made assumptions about the way money works and the way banks work that just flat do not match how they actually work in real life. That’s something that’s hugely critical to understanding economic volatility and understanding financial crises. But even regular business cycles have a lot to do with the ebbs and flows of bank lending. And banks just aren’t included in standard macroeconomic models(…)


Until you understand that the economic profession is really not doing anything like what I would say they should be doing—studying these things that go wrong, the recessions and depressions and crises—you might not realize that we shouldn’t really be relying on mainstream economists to tell us how policies should be crafted, to tell us what risks might be out there. We need a different approach.


Click the play button below to listen to Chris’ interview with Daniel Nevins (46m:19s).



For the transcript of this recording, please click here.

Monday, February 5, 2018

US Stock Market Hits 2-Year Low, Global Crash May Be Imminent: ‘There Isn’t Even A Plan A!’

stockmarketcrash


Experts have warned that an economic crash may be imminent after US stocks dropped to a two-year low on Friday.  But this time, the crash would be massive and go global.


Experts such as Peter Schiff have been warning that the US stock market is nothing but a gigantic bubble that’s set to burst at any time. While the tax cuts may have delayed the inevitable, a global financial crisis could be about to unfold. The US stock market hit two-year lows Friday, prompting warnings of an economic crash from several prominent analysts. There are concerns the stock market’s performance could indicate the US is set for its first recession since 2008 and a knock-on effect could cause an economic downturn across the globe.


US stock indexes ended last week with their worst performance since June 2016 after the Dow Jones industrial average futures dropped more than 200 points, the S&P 500 dropped by nine points, and Nasdaq 100 futures saw 37.75 points fall. Jason Draho, head of tactical asset allocation for the Americas at UBS, described the “growing pains” in the market to be at fault for the low performance. “Markets are likely to remain choppy as they adapt to this new growth and interest rate environment,” Draho said.


But the stock markets wobbly performance at the end of last week is not the only sign to analysts that there is trouble ahead. In a separate warning, economist Allison Schrager explained that the global economy could be about to suffer a setback. Americans’ lack of money in savings could indicate massive overconfidence in the market. “The economy may be booming now but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical it will last,” said Schrager. “Productivity numbers don’t justify the headline growth figures. Many people think the stock market is overvalued and due for a correction. It has been eight and a half years since the last recession and the natural oscillation of the business cycle suggest we may be due for another one soon.”


Speaking in January, Joachim Fels from Pimco also sounded the alarm. “The fact that the fear is gone is the main reason why we should be worried,” he said. “That means most investors are now pretty fully invested and that means they will want to get out if the markets start to correct – exacerbating the downdraft.”


And the deep state elite globalists responsible for the economic crash are holding no more aces up their sleeves to manipulate the markets. Speaking in Davos, the Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard University Kenneth Rogoff, said: “If we have another financial crisis, there isn’t even a plan A.”


Economic Collapse Will Serve One Purpose: “Global Governance and the Enslavement of Mankind”



Do not live in fear, yet be as prepared as possible for the impending crisis.


preppers-blueprint

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

WARNING: The US Stock Market Has A 70% Chance Of Crashing RIGHT NOW

stockmarketcrash


Vanguard’s chief economist Joe Davis said investors need to be prepared for a significant downturn in the stock market, which is now at a 70 percent chance of crashing.  That chance is significantly higher than it has been over the past 60 years.


The economist added, It’s unreasonable to expect rates of returns, which exceeded our own bullish forecast from 2010, to continue.” In its annual report, the company told investors to expect no better than four to six percent returns from stocks in the next five years.  Vanguard, which manages roughly $5 trillion in assets and is a proponent of long-term investing, isn’t sounding the alarm bells to scare investors out of the market.  They simply want investors to be prepared.


The risk premium, whether corporate bond spreads or the shape of yield curve or earnings yields for stocks have continued to compress,” said Davis. We’re starting to see, for the first time… some measures of expected risk premiums compressed below areas where we think it can be associated with fair value.




According to RT, Davis also said that overreaching is no better a solution for a lower-return environment than getting out of the market entirely. He expressed worries that after hearing of lower returns,” some investors will view that as a catalyst to become more aggressive to generate the returns they have been used to in recent years.


You need to stay invested, because of lower expected returns,” Davis said, adding Don’t become overly aggressive. The next five years will be challenging, and investors need to have their eyes wide open.”


Just ten years after the 2008 financial crisis “very little has been really fixed,” and the next bubble is about to burst, says Bill Blain, a strategist at Mint Partners. According to Blain, this time, it is the bond markets that will trigger the mayhem and collapse. The 2008 crisis, which was about consumer debt, was triggered by mortgages. We still have a consumer debt crisis problem ahead, warns Blain, but the next financial crisis is likely to be in corporate debt.


I’m convinced bond markets are the REAL bubble we should be watching, and it’s going to start in high yieldBlain warned.