The EU's Greatest Achievements, According To Europeans

A year on from the UK"s Brexit referendum, Prime Minister Theresa May is set to visit Brussels today and outline her government"s negotiating position on the future rights of EU citizens living in the UK.

As Statista"s Niall McCarthy notes, a recently released Chatham House-Kantar survey found that freedom to live and work across the EU is considered one of the EU"s top three triumphs by its citizens.

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When polled about the EU"s greatest achievements to date, 29 percent of people in the UK said there were none, along with 17 percent in nine other countries.

Peace on the European continent was considered the EU"s greatest achievement by 14 percent of people on the continent and 17 percent in the UK.

WTF Chart Of The Day - Brexit Prompts Brits To Turn German

A jump in the number Brits becoming Germans shows how a lot of expats are trying to cushion the possible negative fall-out for them and their families after the Brexit vote.

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As Statista"s Dyfed Loesche notes, according to recent figures by the German Statistical Office, naturalisations of British citizens have shot up by a whopping 360 percent compared to 2015 and stood at 2,865 for 2016.

Especially if the British government under Theresa May follows through with its hard-line Brexit and could end up not accepting equal rights for EU expats in Britain after Brexit, the EU could equally decide to curtail the rights of British citizens living in the EU.

The Brexit negotiations between May"s new but shaky government and an increasingly impatient European Union were set to begin on Monday next week, June 19, but will probably have to be pushed back a few days.

Frexit Fears Mount As European 'VIX' Spike Signals No 'Pre-Brexit Complacency'

The pre-Brexit complacency - echoed by the polls, the media, and the establishment - is absolutely not being repeated ahead of France"s looming election. While bond spreads have blown out, investor fear in the European equity options market is considerably worse than pre-Brexit.

As Bloomberg"s Tanvir Sandhu notes, the spread between April and May Europe stock volatility futures has climbed on French election risks...

And is starting to outstrip the rally seen in the equivalent contracts heading into the U.K.’s EU referendum.

The vol spread has risen to about 5 from below 1 at start of February; that compares to pre-Brexit vote high of 8. Howeever, as the chart below shows, ahead of Brexit, the spread started to ease as polls consistently showed Remain would win... before exploding higher on the actual vote.

That complacency is very much not in evidence this time as Frexit fears mount. The question is - are equity investors over-anxious or bond investors still too complacent...

Notably, investors fear that polls underestimate the risk of a Le Pen win following last year’s Trump and Brexit outcomes, although the French election may have a lower probability of surprise vs polls.

What Did The Russian People Know About The US Election Result?

The Russians knew!!...

In a wonderfully ironic and perfectly consipiratorial result, Statista"s Dyfed Loesche notes that, it turns out that the Russian were best at predicting who would win the U.S. presidential elections. According to research by Ipsos, only two other countries, or rather a majority of respective citizens, were giving Trump the thumps-up before the race for the White House had started. The rest of the world was convinced that Hillary Clinton would win.

The Mexicans were most convinced that Clinton would make it – understandably so. (Sometimes it’s hard to distinguish wishful thinking from sober realism.) Strange though, that the British who had witnessed the Brexit vote in June didn’t have a stronger foreboding that you indeed should never say never. The respondents were questioned in the month leading up to the presidential election on November 8, 2016.

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See - this proves Putin did it... and he told all the Russian people too!!!