While the specter of a nuclear war with North Korea has faded in recent weeks, China is not taking chances, and ahead of the Winter Olympics in South Korea, the Chinese government has deployed 300,000 troops and multiple mobile strike groups to its highly-guarded border with North Korea, a move which signals that Beijing is quietly gearing for a potential crisis between Kim Jong Un and the United States in the coming months.
According to South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo news, “China is preparing for a potential war on the Korean Peninsula by reinforcing missile defenses near the border with North Korea” citing a report from Radio Free Asia. “Military units in Yanbian were relocated from Heilongjiang Province, thus adding 300,000 troops along the border.”
RFA quoted a North Korean source in China that the Chinese military late last year deployed another missile defense battery at an armored division in Helong, west of Longjing in the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture. Now it is deploying missile defense batteries near North Korean reservoirs by the Apnok and Duman rivers.
The reason for the increased missile presence is that Chinese troops in the border area could be swept away if the North tore down the banks of the reservoirs or they were destroyed by missiles or air strikes, the source added.
On Jan. 24, Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported that the 78th Group Army, the first Chinese military unit that would cross the border into the North in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula, has been armed with newest surface-to-air missiles against South Korean and U.S. aircraft and missiles.
The reported deployment comes just days before the start of the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in South Korea.
What is peculiar about this escalation is that it comes as Kim Jong Un’s regime has – at least optically – attempted to “thaw” relations with Seoul, wishing the South Korean government a “successful” competition and hoping to “ease military tensions” before the games begin. In a rare case of Korean unity, both North and South Korea plan to march into the Opening Ceremonies under a “united Korean flag” and will combine their female hockey teams.
Meanwhile, Trump has been busy pushing his domestic agenda to engage in Twitter bickering and comparing nuclear button size with Kim Jong-Un, allowing tensions between the two nuclear-armed nations to ease in recent weeks, although if China knows something, this tentative detente will not last long.
Chinese tanks, soldiers, and military trucks have been gathering on the border in preparation for a war. The Chinese military was quickly rushed to the border they share with North Korea after being told to get “ready for war.”
According to the Daily Star,the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces have been building up military assets in the cover of the night around the Tumen River in Yanji city, Jilin province, which borders North Korea. Chinese commanders are reported to have recently conducted the so-called “war ceremony” – urging their troops to be ready to fight as columns of PLA trucks have been pictured on the move near Yanji City which is close to the triple border between China, Russia, and North Korea.
China is North Korea’s only traditional ally and has been coming under pressure to tackle Kim Jong-un from the US. Sources cited in Chinese media have claimed that the PLA is “preparing for war on the Korean Peninsula.” China would be expected to use its military forces to help quell a flood of refugees should the United States initiate an attack North Korea and chubby dictator, Kim Jong-Un. Beijing is also expected to quickly move into the rogue state to seize assets, and potentially have China join the war on the side of North Korea once the US begins a so-far theoretical attack.
According to Zerohedge, if the media report is accurate, it would suggest that China – fearing the worst – is preparing for a full-blown war on the Korean Penisula. Previously, internal documents leaked from China’s main state-owned telecommunications company shows three villages and cities in the northeastern border province of Jilin, have been designated for refugee camps-if war breaks out. China is afraid a swarm of refugees from North Korea could cross the Tumen River into China.
Zhang Liangui, a professor of international strategic research at the Communist Party’s Central Party School said, “it is highly possible that there is a conflict between North Korea and the United States now. What China does here is to be prepared for any kind of situation happening on the Korean Peninsula.”
Just as President Donald Trump is preparing to embark on a nearly two-week tour of Asia – his first since taking office – where he is expected to discuss, among other topics, the regional threat posed by North Korea, Defense News is reporting that China has reportedly been conducting bombing drills targeting the US territory of Guam.
Reports of China’s aggressive expansion of its air force – an attempt to exert its dominance over contested territories in the South China and East China seas – were relayed by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford during a briefing with reporters.
China “is very much the long-term challenge in the region,” Dunford said. “When we look at the capabilities China is developing, we’ve got to make sure we maintain the ability to meet our alliance commitments in the Pacific.”
The notion that both North Korea and China have threatened Guam, either explicitly or tacitly, speaks to the fact that China is the biggest threat to US security in the Pacific, nuclear standoff with North Korea notwithstanding, Dunford said.
To wit, a conflict with North Korea is still viewed as “a fight we can win,” military officials said during the briefing. With China, they said they “worry about the way things are going.”
Followers of US activities in the Pacific may have noticed the increase in confrontations between US and Chinese forces, both in the water and in the sky. While it hasn’t been nearly as widely publicized as the Chinese military’s buildup in the South China Sea, China has also been building its fleet of fighter jets, operating daily, aggressive campaigns to contest airspace over the East China Sea, South China Sea and further out into the Pacific, Defense News reported.
The officials described the escalatory behaviors by China in a briefing they provided to reporters traveling with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford.
China’s willingness to test boundaries has caused the number of confrontations between Japanese and Chinese fighter jets to escalate dramatically…
Over the last year Japan has scrambled 900 sorties to intercept Chinese fighters challenging Japan’s air defense identification zone, or ADIZ. In 2013 China announced borders for its own ADIZ, borders which overlapped Japan’s zone and included the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Since then, increased interactions between Japanese and Chinese aircraft ultimately resulted in Japan relocating two fighter squadrons to Naha Air Base on Okinawa to more easily meet the incursions, the officials said.
“We now have, on a daily basis, armed Chinese Flankers and Japanese aircraft” coming in close proximity of each other, the officials said, adding that intercepts between the U.S. and China are also increasing.
…While US military officials have accused the Chinese air force of provoking the US by staging intercepts of US aircraft.
“It’s very common for PRC aircraft to intercept U.S. aircraft” these days, the officials said, referring to the People’s Republic of China.
Chinese aircraft are also testing U.S. air defense identification zones, the officials said. Chinese H-6K “Badger” bombers upgraded with 1,000 mile range air launched cruise missiles are testing U.S. defense zones around Guam.
The Badgers run “not infrequent” flights to get within range of the U.S. territory, they said.
“The PRC is practicing attacks on Guam,” the officials said.
The vast majority of the flights occur without an incident, such as a report of unsafe flying, for example. The officials said they follow U.S. Pacific Command guidance on how to respond in those events, so they do not further escalate.
DefenseNews noted that the military relationship between the US and China remains open, if guarded. US officials meet twice a year at the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement conference, where the incursions are discussed along with other security topics.
However, officials described China’s repeated confrontations as part of a strategy of normalization, whereby Chinese officials repeatedly test boundaries until regional gradually come to accept their expanded presence. Ultimately, the strategy is aimed at forcing the international community to accept “the nine-dash line” – the contest maritime border surrounding islands in the South China Sea that China has claimed and developed, but have been the subject of an international dispute with several of China’s regional neighbors. Last year, an international court ruled in favor of the Philippines’ claim of ownership, but the ruling was promptly ignored by the Chinese.
The expanded Chinese fighter and bomber runs are just one part of the country’s effort to “win without fighting” to gradually normalize the gains China has made in the South China Sea, the officials said.
There are other pressures. For example, the officials said they estimate the People’s Liberation Army Navy has placed as many as 150,000 Chinese commercial fishing vessels under its direction, even though they are not official Chinese navy. The Chinese fishing vessels make coordinated attacks on Vietnamese fishermen, the officials said, ramming and sometimes sinking boats near the Paracel Islands. China took the territory from Vietnam in the 1970s and has militarized some of the islands. The area remains a traditional fishing area for the Vietnamese.
Taken together, China’s activities suggest it is preparing to defend expanded boundaries, the U.S. officials worry.
“I think they will be ready to enforce it when they decide to declare the Nine-Dash line as theirs,” one of the officials said, referring to the territorial line China has identified that would notionally put the entire South China Sea under Chinese control if enforced.
Ultimately, the US fears that Chinese systemic provocations will erode the so-called “rules-based order” – the system of international codes and treaties that governs military relationships between sovereign states.
If unchallenged, the U.S. officials worry that China could slowly force countries away from what they describe as the “rules based order” — essentially the standing international treaties and norms — in the region and make them shift their security alliances to Beijing for their own economic survival.
Dunford said the U.S. would not allow that to happen.
“We view ourselves as a Pacific power,” Dunford said.
“There are some who try to create a narrative that we are not in the Pacific to stay,” he said. “Our message is that we are a Pacific power. We intend to stay in the Pacific. Our future economic prosperity is inextricably linked to our security and political relationships in the region.”
While all of the officials stressed that there is no imminent danger of a conflict with China, U.S. forces in the region are rethinking what a Pacific fight would look like.
“If we find ourselves in conflict out there we will be under air attack,” the official said.
While North Korea will likely be the main topic of discussion during Trump’s Asia tour, Dunford said he expects Trump will convey the US’s displeasure with China’s increasingly aggressive posture in the Pacific.
Of course, while China has cooperated with the US in passing sanctions against North Korea, while partly acquiescing to US demands that Beijing curtail economic support for the Kim regime, Dunford seems to suggest that China’s cooperation on these issues is nothing more than a ploy to create a buffer of goodwill as it gradually expands its reach in the Pacific. The question now is: Will the US seek to more boldly counter China’s advance? Or, like the famous analogy of the frog in the pot of boiling water, will US reticence allow China to keep pushing until it is the dominant military power in the Pacific?
The Chinese military has for the first time staged live-fire drills at the country"s first overseas base opened recently in the Horn of Africa, near the strategic Straits of Hormuz in Djibouti.
Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa, is strategically located in the entrance from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and lies at the gateway to the busy Suez Canal. It provides a port to neighboring landlocked Ethiopia. It is considered one of the key middle-east energy chokepoints.
"This is the first time our soldiers stationed in Djibouti have left the camp to conduct combat training,” base commander Liang Yang said according to the SCMP. “The live-fire training will help explore a new training model for the [Chinese] overseas garrison.”
Scores of Chinese officers participated in the shooting exercise, which took place at the country’s national gendarmerie training range where the Chinese dispatched armored vehicles and used pistols, automatic rifles and machine guns to strike practice targets.
China’s first overseas military facility was inaugurated on August 1 after being under construction for more than a year. China’s military presence in Djibouti will continue until 2026, with a contingent of up to 10,000 soldiers. Beijing has long wanted to use its several footholds in Africa to seek closer ties with nations on the continent that could help it gain access to natural resources and provide new markets.
China says it will use the base to assist anti-piracy operations and United Nations peacekeeping and humanitarian relief missions in Africa and West Asia. Beijing also says it will use the base to facilitate military cooperation and joint exercises. China may also be seeking to counter the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force presence, which has maintained a small contingent at its base in Djibouti since 2011.
Immediately after China wrapped up its drills, the Japanese forces in the country began their own military exercises, reportedly practicing the protection of Japanese nationals abroad. The third drills of their kind, according to the Japanese media, are taking place September 25-October 2.
As we reported previously, in addition to Chinese and Japanese military, the tiny but strategically important African country, also hosts troops and military bases for the United States, France and several other countries.
In the movie "The International" Clive Owen plays the part of Louis Salinger, an Interpol agent trying to bring down the world"s largest bank.
In this clip a banker explains things to him:
Umberto Calvini: [In explaining the "true" nature of banking in the world]
"The IBBC is a bank. Their objective isn"t to control the conflict, it"s to control the debt that the conflict produces. You see, the real value of a conflict, the true value, is in the debt that it creates. You control the debt, you control everything. You find this upsetting, yes? But this is the very essence of the banking industry, to make us all, whether we be nations or individuals, slaves to debt."
Debt is much like a baseball bat: neither good nor bad. You can use it to hit the ball out of the park or you can get beaten into a bloody pulp by it. How we use (or abuse it) is the determiner. Read my article on the easy and uncomplicated way to get rich to ensure you go about it the smart way.
Certainly debt can - and has been used - to control people, assets, and entire societies ever since we crawled out of the cave and began covering our bits with fur. Just ask your neighbour Billy, who"s always complaining about his sh*tty job, why he won"t shut up and just quit? The answer typically is because his mortgage and car payments won"t let him.
I"ve been thinking a lot about debt lately. Not the consumer driven silliness highlighted by Billy but specifically how debt is used as a tool on an international and political level and how it affects currencies and geopolitics.
I then looked at the unfolding trends present today. Trying to see how they all fit together is, I believe, a valuable exercise, even though there"s more moving parts to this than a silo full of Swiss watches.
To begin with, let"s revisit some recent history of debt, currency, and deficits and how they"ve interacted. George Soros articulates it very well in his book The Alchemy of Finance when describing what he called "Reagan"s Imperial Circle:"
Keep this concept in mind as we"ll revisit it in a minute.
Trends
Fast forward to today, and there are some dramatic shifts taking place in the world:
Bureaucrats in Brussels, who specialise in overpriced corporate lunches and finding new ways of spending their unjustifiable annual bonuses, continue to berate the "PIGS" for not doing more about austerity. Ironic but the truth is Brussels controls the PIGS much in the same way the bankers in the movie The International controlled the world
Across the Atlantic we have the sexiest first lady in forever elected, and now we enjoy her orange husband bring a whole new level of ridiculous to Twitter, a space previously owned by the Kardashian"s posteriors. I"m still undecided which is worse
On the shores of the murky isles, Brits marched boldly towards independence only to realise in shock that they had a completely inept leadership and not a single able minded option available to them. And so they did what any pissed off aggravated person would do: they began voting for Jeremy Corbyn. Not because anyone wanted him in power. Hell no! Purely in protest
And so, while much of the West increasingly looks dysfunctional, lost, and confused, China are embarking on the most ambitious project ever since I tried to convince my now wife that a hot girl should marry me. The project? One belt one road (OBOR), which impacts many industries and countries such as Greece.
In many ways China has many elements in their favour whereby they can use their increasing economic prowess, large trade surplus, and existing overcapacity to control the debt of trading partners, and in so doing slowly but surely influence politics and economics in a self reinforcing cycle.
Incidentally, if they"re successful in their OBOR endeavours, they can hope to mitigate some of the fallout from an impending and overdue domestic non-performing loan cycle.
Commentators on OBOR seem to fall into those who are bullish... and those who poke fun at it and either don"t like it or question China"s ability to pull it all off. On the face of it the idea seems simple enough. OBOR promises to open up markets for Chinese exports. This is, I think, somewhat simplistic and naive.
The more I"ve researched the topic the more I think there is much much more to OBOR than meets the eye. The Chinese are many things but stupid is not one of them.
Let"s take a look at some of their problems, their ambitions, and how and why OBOR really is front and centre for Xi.
Overcapacity
We know that too much of anything is bad for us. Just ask Chris Christie"s arteries.
China suffer from too much capacity as well as too much domestic debt in their banking system. OBOR may provide a means for China to deflate this debt while exporting overcapacity.
What"s more is that they can do so while providing credit (at the state level) to countries who are in desperate need of it. Greece, as I mentioned last week, fits this picture particularly well.
Deflating the Domestic Credit Bubble
China has a domestic credit problem, and they"re going to have to deal with that in some way or another. Certainly a harsh non-performing loan cycle can punish GDP growth but consider this...
What if China essentially moved this domestic debt problem onto the balance sheets of OBOR partners?
How?
By the Chinese government lending these partners money for large infrastructure projects (as they"ve already been doing). When those infrastructure projects get built, a decent amount of the project works go to Chinese companies which provides them the ability to both export overcapacity all the while deflating some of the domestic credit bubble.
A pretty damn smart move if you can pull it off!
China has some $3 trillion of paper which they can trade for power and influence.
Think about it, which would you rather have: a pile of greenbacks (with the Fed at the helm who have shown in no uncertain terms that, when push comes to shove, they"ll forego monetary stature for domestic political security) or political and economic leverage globally?
The Most Powerful Weapon Brought to Bear
China"s answer is pretty clear based on what they"ve begun to do.
They have already been making huge loans to strategically placed and often poor countries. These loans provide jobs and infrastructure, both of which are desperately needed by these countries.
That they"re structured on onerous terms and under conditions whereby Chinese materials and labour are often used is easily overlooked when one is broke and desperate (in the private investment world we call it distressed investing). And in case you"ve not realised it, there are a lot of desperate governments littering the planet right now.
And just like in the movie referenced, China need not have these projects even be successful. In fact, there"s a case to be made to say that they"d prefer them NOT to be successful. Having the debt repaid eliminates political and economic leverage.
Case in point: Sri Lanka’s Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, which opened in 2013, is still largely idle and empty. What does Sri Lanka now get? An empty airport and a massive debt to China which they can"t repay. Pakistan"s multibillion dollar Gwadar port and Greece"s Piraeus port are two more.
China controls all of this debt, and by controlling this debt they can, and will, begin using this power for... ahem, "concessions".
The world should not be surprised when military submarines with Chinese symbols start using these ports and Beijing begins having a say in how these partner countries" "assets" are used and by whom, because, after all, China controls the debt.
Neither should we be surprised when Chinese warships begin providing "security" to these ports, or when "security and surveillance" aircraft belonging to the Chinese military begin providing "services" to the airports, gas pipelines, and so forth.
Realise that it"s in China"s interests for these countries to never ever be able to repay these debts. This provides them with extraordinary leverage at what is really a very cheap cost.
Now, I"m not that cynical that I think China doesn"t want this infrastructure to help trade. I"m sure they do. But there is likely a strong political incentive here which really amounts to a bait and switch loan sharking game where countries will be forced to make all sorts of concessions in order to defray debt payments.
My readers are a sharp bunch so don"t need me to point out that this is a far cheaper method than the "normal" alternatives.
Consider that the cruise missiles Trump rained down on Syria just 3 months ago cost an estimated $60 million, and the Iraq war has already cost the US government, I mean US taxpayer, $2.4 trillion.
I began doing the math on the total amount of money spent by the US government on gaining or maintaining geopolitical dominance via military interventions but my calculator started smoking and promptly blew up. But it"s definitely safe to say it"s a lot higher than these two numbers.
As I mentioned before, the economics of war have changed, and OBOR represents a vastly cheaper method of acquiring power and influence than does bombing the sh*t out of sand.
Russia’s second largest trading partner (after Germany)
Africa"s largest trading partner
South America’s largest trading partner
OBOR is much, much more than simply establishing trading routes for Chinese goods as the MSM will have you believe. It is THE most ambitious geopolitical play of our lifetimes, and it"s well worth understanding what"s taking place here.
Xi"s Imperial Circle?
So the question that I have for you to ponder today is this: is China able to create a self-reinforcing mechanism whereby they export excess capacity, deflate a domestic credit buildup, build an infrastructure for future export and trade all the while having many of the participants beholden (via debt) to China allowing for unsurpassed geopolitical power... and be able to do so because, in large part, the rest of the world has their own problems to wrestle with?
Does the world wake up a couple decades later when the dollar debt has been converted (another concession) to renminbi and marvel at what an amazing chess manoeuvre was played as we all realise we have Xi"s imperial circle?
"Happiness does not fall out of the blue and dreams will not come true by themselves. We need to be down-to-earth and work hard. We should uphold the idea that working hard is the most honourable, noblest, greatest and most beautiful virtue." — Xi Jinping
Trump"s "up and down" relationship with China may be on the precipice of taking a sharp dive into the proverbial abyss. After frequently threatening to label China a "currency manipulator" on the campaign trail last year, Trump"s relationship with China"s President Xi Jinping took a decided turn for the better after a meeting at Mar-a-Lago in which China vowed to help address the "menace of North Korea" .
I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!
And, shortly after those efforts were declared dead, the Trump administration signed a $1.3 billion arms deal with Taiwan, a deal which China has "demanded" be cancelled immediately.
Meanwhile, as the Financial Times points out today, in the midst of all the international crises, China has made great strides building out and further militarizing their disputed islands in the South China Sea.
Over the past three months, China has built four new missile shelters on Fiery Cross, boosting the number of installations on the reef to 12, according to satellite images provided to the Financial Times by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
China has also expanded radar facilities on Fiery Cross and two other disputed reefs — Subi and Mischief — in the Spratly Island chain, and started building underground structures that Greg Poling, director of CSIS’s Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, assesses will be used to store munitions.
“We haven’t seen any slowdown in construction, including since the Mar-a-Lago summit,” said Mr Poling. “The islands are built and they are clearly militarised, which means they already got over the hard part. Now every time they put in a new radar or new missile shelter, it is harder for the world to get angry. They are building a gun, they are just not putting the bullets in yet.”
The advances underscore how much progress China has made towards militarizing the man-made islands in ways that significantly enhance its ability to both monitor activity in the South China Sea and to project power in the western Pacific where the US has been the dominant power in the seven decades since the second world war.
Euan Graham, an Asia expert at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, said it was “not quite game over in the South China Sea” but that China had fundamentally altered the status quo over the islands that would be hard to change barring war or natural disasters.
“They already exert a strategic effect by projecting China’s presence much further out,” said Mr Graham. “They will not prevent the US Navy from operating in their vicinity, but they will complicate the threat environment for US ships and aircraft — by extending the [Chinese navy’s] surveillance and targeting net, as well as the envelope of power projection.”
Of course, these latest provocations come despite a promise made to Obama in 2015 that "China would not militarize the man-made islands"...a promise which the Obama administration apparently took at face value and proceeded to bury their heads in the sand.
During a visit to Washington, Mr Xi told Barack Obama in 2015 that China would not militarise the man-made islands, but in the intervening 20 months Beijing has stepped up construction, and now has runways that can accommodate Chinese fighter jets.
China’s legal claim to the seas around the maritime features is legally controversial since many were dredged out of coral and sand and thus not entitled to status as islands. But Vasily Kashin, an expert on the Chinese military at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, said the goal was never legal sovereignty but to give China forward bases from which it could patrol and exercise control in their vicinity.
“If you have this infrastructure in the Spratlys, it allows China to constantly monitor aircraft and ships in the South China Sea. The point is that no one will be able to do anything in the area without them seeing.”
Ely Ratner, an Asia expert who served in the Obama administration, said Washington had failed to craft a strategy to convince China to halt militarisation of the man-made islands. “Until China believes that there will be significant costs . . . I don’t think they have any reason to slow down,” said Mr Ratner. “They have been pushing on an open door and have been surprised at how little resistance they have faced.”
Critics say the Obama administration took too cautious an approach to avoid creating tensions that would hurt the ability for co-operation on other issues. Meanwhile, some experts say the Trump team has given China a relatively free pass to maximise the chances it will boost pressure on North Korea to give up its nuclear programme.
Somehow we suspect the Trump administration will end up being slightly less "accommodating" over the long term...
Last summer, when the Syrian conflict was near its peak under the Obama administration, China unexpectedly warned it was ready to enter the proxy war when in a stunning announcement, Xinhua reported that Beijing was prepared to side with Syria- and Russia against the US-led alliance, and that Xi and Assad had agreed that the Chinese military will have closer ties with Syria and provide humanitarian aid to the civil war torn nation.
A high-ranking People"s Liberation Army officer also said that the training of Syrian personnel by Chinese instructors has also been discussed: the Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of China"s Central Military Commission, Guan Youfei, arrived in Damascus on Tuesday for talks with Syrian Defense Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij, Xinhua added. Guan said China had consistently played a positive role in pushing for a political resolution in Syria. "China and Syria"s militaries have a traditionally friendly relationship, and China"s military is willing to keep strengthening exchanges and cooperation with Syria"s military," Xinhua quoted Guan.
Then last month, as the lingering Syrian proxy war dragged on, we reported that Moscow was hoping "for China"s help in solving the Syrian crisis and restoring the country."
As Russia"s deputy foreign minister Igor Morgulov said on May 29, "our cooperation with China on Syria at various international venues is unprecedented. We blocked six attempts to pass anti-Syrian resolutions in the U.N. Security Council," Morgulov said at "Russia and China: Taking on a New Quality of Bilateral Relations" international conference adding that "together we call for a peaceful and political-diplomatic solution to conflicts, without double standards, unilateral action or attempts at ousting regimes. Our approaches coincide, among other things, on the uncompromising fight against terrorism."
And while the Syrian conflict has taken a back seat in recent weeks to the latest crisis to grip the Gulf region, namely the economic and territorial blockade of Qatar by its Arab neighbors, overnight China made an unexpected appearance, not surprisingly perhaps siding with the biggest supporter of the Assad regime, when as AP reportedIran"s navy conducted a joint exercise with a Chinese fleet near the strategic Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. It was only the second time the Chinese flotilla has visited the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas since 2014, and comes at a tense moment as the Senate last week passed a new round of sanctions against Tehran.
According to Iran"s official IRNA news agency, Sunday"s drill included an Iranian warship as well as two Chinese warships, a logistics ship and a Chinese helicopter that arrived in Iran"s port of Bandar Abbas last week, and adds that the scheduled exercise "came before the departure of the Chinese fleet for Muscat, Oman."
A total of four vessels and two helicopters displayed their military capabilities on Sunday during a day of joint exercises in the strait connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.
The Chinese fleet, which includes the Chang Chun guided-missile destroyer, the Chao Hu replenishment ship, the Jin Zhou frigate, and a helicopter, arrived in the Iranian southern port of Bandar Abbas on Thursday. An Iranian destroyer and a helicopter joined them for the drills.
The exercises, which had been planned in advance, are aimed at promoting interaction and strengthening confidence between the navies of the two nations, according to Rear Admiral Shen Hao, Commander of China Navy Task Force Group 150, as cited by Iran’s IRNA news agency.
IRNA adds that Iran"s Commander of the First Naval Base Rear Admiral Amir Hossein Azad in a joint press conference with commander of Chinese visiting’ fleet-150’ in Bandar Abbas on Thursday evening said that the maneuver will be held in the east of the Hormuz Strait and north of the Indian Ocean.
Describing the "optics" of the drill, the commander added that in fighting against the ominous phenomenon of piracy, defending trade fleets, and carrying out relief and rescue operations, the two navies have collaboration and exchange useful information. What was left unsaid is that China was implicitly siding with Iran - a key source of crude oil in the past year - in the country"s diplomatic spat with Washington.
Rear Admiral Shen Hao, Commander of China Navy Task Force Group 150 confirmed as much, saying that "holding the maneuver had already been planned and the successful execution of the program will help develop more friendship, promote interaction and strengthen confidence between the two navies of Iran and China."
He called Iran and China two ancient and civilized countries of Asia with a long history of friendship, adding that by exchanging high ranking delegations in recent years, cooperation between the two navies have entered into a new phase.
Separately, in a tacit show of support for Qatar in its own ongoing diplomatic spat, the U.S. navy held a joint drill with Qatar in the Persian Gulf on Saturday. It said the scheduled exercise came before the departure of the Chinese fleet for Muscat, Oman.
While the signalling remains muddled, it appears that China is increasingly tipping its cards that it is alligned with the Iran-Syria-Russia axis, while the US appears to be hoping that by indicating military cooperation with Qatar, that the Saudi coalition will gradually allow things to return to the way they were.
As China"s economy has boomed, corporations and individuals with historically close ties to the government have been the major beneficiaries. Sitting flush with massive amounts of cash on hand, power players in the Chinese markets have increasingly sought to branch out and increase their investments in foreign countries. Many of these investments target key industries despite their own government often restricting or forbidding the same kind of foreign investment domestically.
Concerningly, figures with ties to anti-American factions of the Chinese government such as real estate mogul Wang Jianlin have targeted American media outlets in the U.S. as investment targets while at the same time beginning to increase rhetoric towards U.S. leaders and becoming involved in corruption scandals. The increased investment comes at a time where Hollywood celebrities have also become increasingly cozy with Asian investors and in some cases become embroiled in Asian financial scandals.
I. Wang Jianlin Is A Former PLA Regimental Commander Whose Dailan Wanda Group Has Been Acquiring Various Hollywood Media Assets
Wang Jianlin (???) is a Chinese billionaire who stands at what the New York Times has described as the intersection of business and power in China. Mr. Wang served 16 years in the Chinese People"s Liberation Army, rising to the rank of regimental commander. He is described by Forbes magazine as connected to Ke Xiping, the Chinese Tycoon who played a middleman role in helping the government of China in buying influence in Democratic propaganda outlet Shareblue. In 1988 he was offered a management position at a debt-burdened state run enterprise while working at a provincial government post in Dalian, China. The company was transformed into the Dalian Wanda Group (??????) and established itself building and operating commercial property, luxury hotels, culture and tourism, and department stores. While the company has its roots in property and infrastructure, Mr. Wang has begun to push Dalian Wanda in a bold new direction: investing in all six of Hollywood"s major studios.
One of Dalian Wanda"s first major acquisitions in Hollywood was AMC Entertainment Holdings, purchased in 2012 as part of what was described as being an attempt by the Chinese movie industry to study American markets and understand why viewers had previously been unresponsive to Chinese media. In January 2016, Dalian Wanda purchased Legendary Entertainment, who have co-financed dozens of movies with partners, including films such as “The Dark Knight,” “Jurassic World” and “Straight Outta Compton.” The investment was followed by a purchase of a stake in Sony Pictures.
Dalian Wanda"s push to acquire real estate in the Hollywood film industry has been fraught with pushback from both American interests as well as other Chinese groups competing with Wang for control in Hollywood. Wang also made a bid to acquire Dick Clark Productions, the company responsible for running the Golden Globes and Miss America pageants. On March 17th, 2017, Variety reported that the $1 billion deal had fallen through. Reuters speculated that the deal"s failure might be due to high U.S.-China tensions and tight scrutiny by Beijing on outbound deals. In March 2017, Chinese president Xi Jinping replaced the PLA’s vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, a move that many observers saw as an effort to clean up corruption and consolidate Beijing’s control of the PLA. The action may have affected Wang"s business dealings due to his affiliation with factions of the Chinese military. In September 2016, Viacom vetoed a deal to sell a stake Paramount Pictures to Dalian Wanda, instead opting to revive negotiations with two other Chinese media companies in April.
II. Hollywood Celebrities Have Been Wooed To Asia, Become Involved In Scandals
Wang Jianlin has also made overtures towards Hollywoods celebrities in an effort to draw them into the Asian film market. When Wang opened his Oriental Movie Metropolis in Qingdao, China, a number of A-list stars including Nicole Kidman, Kate Beckinsale, John Travolta, Leonardo DiCaprio and Zhang Ziyi were in attendance.
Leonardo DiCaprio"s increased focus on Asian markets and audiences has also managed to land him in scandal, specifically for his involvement in the Malaysian 1MDB scandal. The 1MDB Scandal began in 2015 when it was discovered that Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak had funneled over $700 million from the state run 1Malaysia Development Berhad development fund into his personal accounts. These reports sparked panic as 1MDB faced increasing difficulty repaying its debts. The scandal spread as governments around the world moved to arrest involved parties and seize assets. In the United States, the Department of Justice moved in and made what the BBC reported as being its largest asset seizure in history, over $1 billion.
The scandal also involved Chinese banking conglomerates who have assisted with Dalian Wanda"s acquisitions abroad. A press releases from 1MDB"s website and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce revealed that the state run Export-Import Bank of China (???????) (China-Exim) agreed in 2014 to jointly develop the Tun Razak ITC Landmark Building in Malaysia. Started in 2014, the project was not scheduled to be completed until 2027, raising questions about whether or not the deal was a fraudulent transaction intended to conceal transfers of cash.
DiCaprio"s involvement centered around revelations that the production company behind the movie The Wolf of Wall Street. The Hollywood Reporter also noted that the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation allegedly received money from a Christie’s charity auction in which businessman Jho Low allegedly used $1.1 million from the 1MDB fund to purchase to pieces of art. The Wall Street Journal reported that DiCaprio was cooperating with the Department of Justice in their probe of the scandal. Disobedient Media has previously reported that DiCaprio has in the past been involved along with other celebrities in a money laundering scheme being run by an alleged Russian mobster.
III. Concerns About Chinese Use Of Hollywood Media To Project "Soft Power"
Many have expressed reservations about China"s forays into American media outlets due to the influence they hold over American hearts and minds. The Los Angeles Times has cited concerns among some lawmakers that Dalian Wanda could wield too much control over the content and distribution of American movies given its close ties to the Chinese government. During the time that Wang Jianlin"s holdings were exercising increased influence over the Golden Globes, the 2017 awards ceremony was one of the most political on record despite Wanda executives" assurances to the press that they would not use their control of Dick Clark to interfere with the awards process. In an October 2016 article by Variety, Hawk Koch, a Hollywood based advisor to Wang Jianlin, directly stated that Chinese films would play a larger role in studios purchased by Dalian Wanda.
The deep ties that Wang Jianlin has to the People"s Liberation Army do not inspire confidence in his claims that he would not use his control over U.S. media outlets for propaganda purposes. China has in the past used mediums such as radio to influence Americans and push tacitly pro-Chinese messages. In November 2015, a Reuters investigation into a local Washington D.C. radio station exposed the involvement of Chinese government in controlling radio broadcasting at 33 radio stations in 14 countries being run in a covert manner by the state run China Radio International.
The Chinese government has at times played a central role to Dalian Wanda"s expansion which accentuates concerns over how Wang Jianlin"s control of U.S media will be used. When Wang purchased AMC Entertainment, the deal was financed by the China Exim Bank, which was previously also tied to the 1MDB scandal.
The close relationship between Wang Jianlin, the PLA and the China-Exim Bank raises the very real possibility that factions within the country will exert their influence in Hollywood to push Chinese "soft power" to American and international audiences, given that China has a history of engaging in this kind of behavior.
IV. Wang Jianlin Has Engaged In Anti-Trump Rhetoric And Become Involved In U.S. Scandals
Since beginning his push to focus on acquiring Hollywood film industry assets, Wang Jianlin has begun to engage in increasingly hostile rhetoric against president Donald Trump. On December 10th, 2016, Wang issued veiled threats to the incoming U.S. leader where he warned that 20,000 people employed by him “wouldn’t have anything to eat" in the event that things were "handled poorly" during future negotiations.
Wang"s newfound boldness in speaking out so strongly against U.S. authorities may arise from the fact that he has so far been able to escape consequences for his role in a New York scandal involving mayor Bill DeBlasio. On August 29th, 2016, local New York media outlet Spectrum News revealed that in March 2016 a City Hall lobbyist Jim Capalino had set up a private, no cameras allowed meeting between Bill de Blasio and Wang Jianlin. A spokesperson said that the meeting was about Chinese tourism.
The meeting was significant as China Vanke, a firm Wang had partnered with, is implicated in a scandal surrounding Rivington House. Rivington House was a Lower East Side nursing home which was converted into luxury apartments and sold for a $72 million profit after a city agency approved a zoning change. The day after Spectrum News" story, Daily News reported that De Blasio cut ties to Capalino after the lobbyist was implicated in a number of "pay-to-plan" schemes being investigated by Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara. The New York Post mentions that Capalino is one of a number of lobbyists with close ties to Bill de Blasio who are under legal scrutiny for alleged fraud or cronyism.
Wang Jianlin"s involvement in American corruption, his brazen rhetoric towards U.S. politicians and his increasing control over the content of media which is consumed by Western viewers and audiences presents a very real problem given his historic ties to the PLA. Disobedient Media has noted in the past that Hillary Clinton"s Goldman Sachs speeches directly implicate factions in the PLA as being responsible for promoting Chinese policies of non-intervention in North Korea, emboldening the country to acquire nuclear weapons and engage in belligerent and hostile behavior towards their neighbors. The close proximity of Wang and his empire to figures associated with such activities creates questions about his true intentions regarding U.S. investment and the U.S. political figures who willingly welcome him with open arms.
Last summer, when the Syrian conflict was near its peak under the Obama administration, China unexpectedly warned it was ready to enter the proxy war when in a stunning announcement, Xinhua reported that Beijing was prepared to side with Syria - and Russia - and against the US-led alliance, and that Xi and Assad had agreed that the Chinese military will have closer ties with Syria and provide humanitarian aid to the civil war torn nation.
A high-ranking People"s Liberation Army officer also said that the training of Syrian personnel by Chinese instructors has also been discussed: the Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of China"s Central Military Commission, Guan Youfei, arrived in Damascus on Tuesday for talks with Syrian Defense Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij, Xinhua added. Guan said China had consistently played a positive role in pushing for a political resolution in Syria. "China and Syria"s militaries have a traditionally friendly relationship, and China"s military is willing to keep strengthening exchanges and cooperation with Syria"s military," Xinhua quoted Guan.
Rear Admiral Guan Youfei
As Reuters also added at the time, China tends to leave Middle Eastern diplomacy to the other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, namely the United States, Britain, France and Russia, while relying on the region for oil supplies. But over the past two years, China has been trying to get more involved, including sending envoys to help push for a diplomatic resolution to the violence there and hosting Syrian government and opposition figures.
Fast forward to today when the Syria proxy war is once again at an impasse - especially after today"s warning by Macron that France would get involved after another "chemical attack" - and once again it may be up to China to be the decisive tiebreaker.
According to both Sputnik and the Daily Sabah, Moscow is once again hoping "for China"s help in solving the Syrian crisis and restoring the country: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov said Monday.
"Our cooperation with China on Syria at various international venues is unprecedented. We blocked six attempts to pass anti-Syrian resolutions in the U.N. Security Council," Morgulov said at "Russia and China: Taking on a New Quality of Bilateral Relations" international conference.
The Russian deputy foreign minister added that Russia values Beijing"s position on the Syrian crisis, and hopes that, "the Chinese partners will continue their efforts to promote a political settlement."
"Together we call for a peaceful and political-diplomatic solution to conflicts, without double standards, unilateral action or attempts at ousting regimes. Our approaches coincide, among other things, on the uncompromising fight against terrorism," Morgulov said.
To be sure, Russia and China are already largely alligned at the United Nations, where the two nations have repeatedly vetoed Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions against the Assad regime. Moscow has long-standing links to the Assad regime and is its key ally, while China has an established policy of non-intervention in other countries" affairs, although as noted above that appeared to change in 2016.
Needless to say, should China break from its policy of direct foreign non-intervention, and should it indeed side with Syria, and Russia, as it hinted it would do last year, the shape of middle eastern geopolitics would change overnight. And now we await the official, or unofficial, response from China to Russia"s "indecent" diplomatic proposal for a joint effort in Syria against the US-led alliance.
Since the end of World War Two, the United States has established itself on every continent with hundreds of military bases, and has sent troops to foreign nations (both covertly and overtly) on so many occasions that it’s difficult to keep track of them all. And this doesn’t even take into account the nations that our government has quietly and successfully pressured into going along with its financial and military agenda. The US government commands a sprawling empire which, much like the British empire that preceded it, never sees the setting sun.
But this massive global empire can’t last forever, and there are forces at work that are challenging the US at every opportunity. And this week in particular, the barbarians were brimming at the gates, so to speak. That’s because our government’s interests were confronted by adversaries in several different regions.
For starters, North Koreatested several missiles in the Sea of Japan over the weekend, three of which landed within Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Alarmed by North Korea’s improved missile technology, Japanese authorities went on high alert. The United States has since sent 14 Super Hercules military planes to Tokyo, and has deployed an anti-missile defense system in South Korea.
While that story has been widely reported on by now, the mainstream media has hardly touched this astonishing story from Afghanistan. If you can believe it, the Pentagon has confirmed that the Chinese military has been operating in Afghanistan, albeit for unknown reasons. So far, both the Chinese and Afghan governments have denied this.
Meanwhile in the Persian Gulf, multiple vessels with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard swarmed a US Navy tracking ship in the Straight of Hormuz, coming within 600 yards of the vessel and forcing it to change direction. The US Navy claims that the vessel was unarmed and the interaction with the Iranian military has been called “unsafe and unprofessional.”
And finally, American troops were recently deployed to the Syrian city of Manbij, after Turkey threatened to attack Kurdish forces in the city. Colonel John Dorrian tweeted that the Joint Task Force in the region “has taken this deliberate action to reassure Coaltion mbrs & partner forces, deter aggression and keep focus on defeating ISIS.”
Can you believe that all of this occurred within a few days? If it weren’t for the fact that the US has racked up an astonishing number of enemies over the years, you’d be forgiven for thinking that this is a concerted effort, organized behind the scenes. In reality, it’s probably just a coincidence. America just happens to be odds with so many forces at the same time. I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait for the day when our nation is busy protecting its own shores and nothing else, because hearing about this stuff every week is exhausting.
Over the weekend, following reports that China has banned all North Korean coal imports - in the aftermath of last week"s North Korean ballistic missile launch- which marked a troubling escalation in relations between the two formerly "amicable" nations, we discussed how China was tipping its hand that not only was Kim Jong-Un potentially losing a "very big ally", but that it could also lead to "jeopady" for his regime, and a potential political coup in the generally unstable dictatorship.
Now, it appears that the likelihood of a regime collapse in North Korea is being taken seriously by none other than the country"s formerly largest trading partner, China, which as SCMP reports, "will take the necessary measures to safeguard national security in the event of the collapse of the neighbouring North Korean regime", a defence official said on Thursday.
The recent assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s half-brother Kim Jong-nam has sparked renewed concerns over the stability of Pyongyang and the possibility of a collapse of the reclusive regime, SCMP adds.
Beijing, long seen as the guarantor of Pyongyang’s security, had mostly largely silent on the incident. However in the aftermath of the abrupt coal import suspension, Chinese officials no longer had the luxury of avoiding the topic.
Asked whether China had a contingency plan for a North Korean collapse, defence ministry spokesman Ren Guoqiang said Beijing has maintained its usual policy towards Pyongyang, and urged the “relevant parties to refrain from any actions that will escalate tensions”.
"We are resolute in safeguarding the peace and security of the Korean Peninsula, sticking to the objective of denuclearization and to resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation,”Ren said on Thursday. “The Chinese military will take the necessary measures, according to the need that arises in the security environment, to safeguard national security and sovereignty,” he said.
Ren denied recent reports that China had sent troops to the border between China and North Korea after Kim Jong-nam’s death to prevent potential large-scale refugee crossings. Beijing has often been criticised by US President Donald Trump for not doing enough to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear development. The latest missile test has reaffirmed South Korea’s resolve to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD), a US-developed anti-ballistic missile system, following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January last year.
South Korea’s acting president, Hwang Kyo-ahn, said on Monday the deployment could not be delayed in the face of the growing nuclear missile threat from the North, despite Beijing’s hostility to the move, Reuters reported. Beijing has strongly protested deployment of THAAD, arguing that the system is not targeted to prevent an attack from North Korea, but could be used to spy on Chinese missile flight tests. Ren at the defence ministry yesterday reiterated China’s opposition to THAAD, saying China would “take all necessary measures to safeguard its national security and sovereignty”.
* * *
Meanwhile, in an inexplicable move, the WSJ reports that in an escalation that is certain to only antagonise China, North Korea lashed out at Beijing in a state-media commentary published on Thursday, in unusually pointed rhetoric from Pyongyang toward a powerful neighbor that it has long relied on for economic support. In Thursday’s piece, North Korea even adopted a mocking tone, saying that the country is “styling itself a big power, is dancing to the tune of the U.S.”
The KCNA statement also vowed that cutting its exports wouldn’t deter North Korea from developing its nuclear arsenal. “It is utterly childish to think that the DPRK would not manufacture nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic rockets if a few penny of money is cut off,” the statement said.
The commentary, published by the state-controlled Korean Central News Agency, didn’t name China, but left little doubt about its target: “a neighboring country, which often claims itself to be a ‘friendly neighbor’.” In particular, the article lambasted China for playing down North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, and for curbing foreign trade—an apparent reference to China’s statement over the weekend that it would suspend coal imports from North Korea for the rest of the year.
North Korea remains heavily reliant on its larger neighbor for trade, while China sees North Korea as a buffer against South Korea and Japan, both U.S. allies. But Beijing’s patience wore thin after Pyongyang conducted a series of nuclear and ballistic-missile tests last year, prompting China to back fresh United Nations sanctions in November that target North Korea’s coal exports. According to the KCNA report, the unnamed country “has unhesitatingly taken inhumane steps such as totally blocking foreign trade related to the improvement of people’s living standard under the plea of the U.N. ‘resolutions on sanctions’ devoid of legal ground.”
While an early round of U.N. sanctions restricted coal imports from North Korea, China is widely believed to have used a so-called humanitarian exception to exceed that cap. That loophole was removed in last November’s U.N. resolution, and North Korea’s protest against China suggests that Beijing has made clear it intends to adhere to the new rule, said Adam Cathcart, a scholar who focuses on China-North Korea relations at the University of Leeds in the U.K.
“I would take this editorial as hard evidence that China has told North Korea it is narrowing the definition of coal exports for ‘humanitarian purposes,’” Mr. Cathcart said, adding that it was exceedingly rare for North Korea to criticize China so directly. Mr. Cathcart called the KCNA editorial “a frontal assault on China’s position on the U.N. sanctions issue,” a shift from the oblique critiques of China that North Korea usually turns to when it expresses its displeasure.
* * *
North Korea’s apparent anger at the Chinese comes as Pyongyang has escalated a diplomatic row with another friendly nation in Asia, Malaysia, after authorities in Kuala Lumpur identified a North Korean embassy official and a state-owned airline employee among seven suspects still at large in the killing of dictator Kim Jong Un’s half brother. North Korea has denied its involvement in last week’s public slaying of Kim Jong Nam. Malaysian authorities have refused to turn over the corpse to North Korea, as the embassy there has demanded, instead conducting its own autopsies—a move decried by North Korea as part of a broader conspiracy engineered by South Korea and the U.S.
Just hours before its broadside against China, KCNA published a report blaming Malaysia for an “undisguised encroachment upon the sovereignty of the DPRK,” referring to North Korea by the acronym for its formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “The biggest responsibility for his death rests with the government of Malaysia as the citizen of the DPRK died in its land,” KCNA reported, quoting a group called the Korean Jurists Committee.
* * *
While it remains unclear if there are political pressures mounting on Kim Jong-Un from within (or externally), some have suggested that his reaction to a potential military coup could be terminal, and irrational, resulting in ballistic missile launches at close neighbors, with potentially dire consequences.
The United States military is without a doubt the most technologically advanced force on the planet, and has been since at least World War II. Most Western nations are likewise, heavily dependent on advanced technology. When the West wins wars, it’s not because of moxy or numbers or cunning. It’s because we can detonate our enemies from miles away on a whim.
In response, our rivals have spent decades trying to compensate with those aforementioned traits. They’re the ones who rely on fighting spirit, cannon fodder, and clever underhanded tactics. They, which includes Russia, China, and lord knows how many insurgents and terrorists, have mastered the domain of unconventional warfare. And they’ve done so by necessity. We’re a wealthy nation with an unbelievably massive military budget. They could never conduct enough scientific research or build enough advanced war machines to compete with us in a conventional war.
Or could they?
It appears that China might be able to. Or at least that’s what the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) thinks. They’re a British think tank that’s been around since 1958, and they have countless members who formerly worked for the British and American governments. The IISS specializes in researching geopolitical issues, and every year they publish the Military Balance report, which examines the military capabilities of the world’s nations. Their latest issue should give the American defense establishment pause.
“Western military technological superiority, once taken for granted, is increasingly challenged,” Dr. John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of IISS, said in a statement. “We now judge that in some capability areas, particularly in the air domain, China appears to be reaching near-parity with the West.”
Instead of its usual practice of working on systems that imitate Soviet and Russian technology, China has shifted its efforts (and budget) to domestic research and development. Its Navy is currently working on three new advanced cruisers, 13 destroyers, and outfitting other ships with better radar.
Most shocking were the claims that China is making fast gains in the air war domain. This is an arena that Western nations have dominated since World War II. It could be argued that the United States hasn’t won any war since the 1940’s without that advantage. Now they’re catching up, partly with their own domestic military research, and partly with research that they’ve stolen from us.
So the question is, what happens if a nation that has already mastered unconventional warfare also reaches parity with the United States when it comes to conventional warfare? Let’s just say that the results won’t be pretty for us should we come to blows with China. Perhaps the Trump and his administration should tread lightly in East Asia, if they want to avoid a rather embarrassing conflict in that region.
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Author: Daniel Lang Views: Read by 155 people Date: February 18th, 2017 Website:http://www.SHTFplan.com
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China — Beijing has now surreptitiously revealed a highly accurate ballistic missile system with a range long enough to directly threaten Taiwan, the hotly disputed South China Sea, the Philippines, and Japanese and U.S. military bases in Asia — including Okinawa — with a nuclear first strike.
Increasingly bellicoseposturingbetween President Donald Trump’s administration and the Chinese government over iterations of a trade war, as well as Beijing’s aggression in the South and East China Seas, have spawned rumors of potential military conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
With such an accurate nuclear-capable missile system ready for deployment within range of targets sensitive to U.S. interests, perhaps it’s time to pay attention.
According totheAssociated Press,“The medium-range DF-16 featured in a video posted last week on the Defense Ministry’s website showing the missiles aboard their 10-wheeled mobile launch vehicles being deployed in deep forest during exercises over the just-concluded Lunar New Year holiday.
“While the Rocket Force boasts an extensive armory of missiles of various ranges, the DF-16 fills a particular role in extending China’s reach over waters it seeks to control within what it calls the ‘first-island chain.’”
Able to strike targets as far away as 1,000 kilometers (620 feet), the missiles can’t be stopped by several defense systems used by Taiwan.
“It also carries up to three warheads weighing as much as a ton and carrying conventional high explosives or a nuclear weapon. Further increasingly its lethality, the missile is believed to be accurate to within as little as 5 meters (16 feet) of the target, similar to that of a cruise missile,”theAPreports.
Like many nations, China has been known for blustery rhetoric — but intense escalation and braggadocio from the incoming president have soured Beijing to Washington.
“The Chinese government is quite concerned about the potential for direct confrontation with the Trump administration,”Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the global political risk consultant, Eurasia Group, and inventor of the Global Political Risk Index,toldCNBCin an email in late January.
“Chinese officials are preparing for the worst, and they expect to retaliate decisively in response to any U.S. policies they perceive as against their interests.”
READ MORE:The US Just Declared Russia a Greater Threat than ISIS -- Paving the Way for Deadly Perpetual War
In particular, the presence of U.S. Navy ships in the South China Sea has incensed Beijing, who claims the waters as Chinese. To the consternation of U.S. allies South Korea and Japan, among others, China constructed islands in disputed waters and proceeded to equip them with military hardware and airplane landing strips.
China’s new nuclear-capable missiles could easily be used — in what Beijing feels is self-defense — should the U.S. accidentally or intentionally tread too far over the line.
And China isn’t alone in preparing for a possible military escalation — of nuclear proportions.
In fact, the U.S. Congressinstructedthe Pentagon’s Strategic Command, via the 2017 NDAA, to assess the ‘survivability’ of both Russian and Chinese leaders in the event of a nuclear strike. Although such an assessment could be considered standard for nuclear powers, the timing intimates the use of strategic nuclear weapons could be the subject of debate behind closed doors in Washington.
As bluster ratchets up between the U.S. and China, overtones of potential nuclear war cannot be dismissed as incidental.
Discussing the United States and rapidly accelerating tensions,anarticleappearing on the Chinese army’s website, states, “The possibility of war increases.”
And China is preparing itself accordingly.
Liu Guoshun, a member of the national defense mobilization unit of China’s Central Military Commission,reportsCNBC, penned the editorial on the day President Donald Trump took the oath of office.
His characterization of U.S.-Chinese relations evinces how much has unraveled between the two nations over the potential looming trade war — China is preparing itself for military action.
“‘A war within the president’s term,’”Liu asserted,“‘war breaking out tonight’ are not just slogans, but the reality.”
Although the opinion piece certainly sends an ominous message, Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the global political risk consultant, Eurasia Group, and inventor of theGlobal Political Risk Index, believes it to be more bluster than outright bellicosity. However, China’s long habit of posturing seems to be nearing an end.
“The Chinese government is quite concerned about the potential for direct confrontation with the Trump administration,”Bremmer toldCNBCby email.
Egged on by Trump’s indiscriminate bashing of China, Beijing may be nearing the point of intolerance — and could act out in a military show of force.
“Chinese officials are preparing for the worst,”Bremmer continued,“and they expect to retaliate decisively in response to any U.S. policies they perceive as against their interests.”
Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea have further degenerated already cool relations with the U.S., as South Korea, in particular, has turned to American aid to protect its interests in the international waters.
China ramped up hostility by refusing to recognize the South China Sea as international waters per a ruling last year — and has continued construction on a series of manmade islands. The nascent Trump administration has already provoked vociferous condemnation from Beijing for vowing to prevent Chinese aggression in that region.
Asked if he agreed with Secretary of State and former Exxon Mobil CEO, Rex Tillerson, that China should not have access to its constructed islands, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicerasserted,
“The U.S. is going to make sure that we protect our interests there.”
READ MORE:While Americans Focused on the RNC, the US was Provoking War with China
Some of the manmade islands have been outfitted with landing strips and stocked with military weaponry — sufficient for Beijing to claim the U.S. would have to “wage war” to stop it from maintaining access.
CNBCreports,“The U.S. needs China’s cooperation to keep North Korea’s nuclear threats in check. But challenges to the U.S.’s ‘One China policy’ that does not officially recognize Taiwan’s independence — a red-line issue for Beijing — could also add to tensions.”
Provocation over the South China Sea, trade, Taiwan, and more — even of the semantic variety Trump has limited himself to thus far — could spark a response from Beijing in the future.
“China doesn’t want trouble with the U.S., especially not in the run up to their own leadership transition this fall,”Bremmer toldCNBC.“But if it comes, they want President Trump to understand the consequences.”
As part of the escalating conflict over trade between the two largest economies on the planet, Beijing has been deeply critical of inefficiencies of so-called Western Democracy and corporatist capitalism.
“Western-style democracy has played a progressive role in history, but right now it has heavy drawbacks,”Communist Party secretary of the Beijing Foreign Studies University, Han Zhen, wrote in an editorial for the People’s Daily,cited byCNBC.
Some analysts feel Beijing might be opportuning contention in the United States over the election and subsequent executive actions by Trump to insert commentary favorable to its interests while shining a negative light on the West.
“I think they’re just trying to take advantage of what looks like a disorderly transition in the U.S. and a great anxiety around the world about what a Trump administration looks like,”noted Scott Kennedy, director of the Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, asCNBCreports.
“When you have a country like China whose growth is slowing with massive debt, with concerns of its neighbors as it moves to become more powerful, I don’t know if it’s the right time for China to be strongly promoting its system relative to others.
“Democracy isn’t meant to be efficient,”Kennedyexplainedin an answer to Chinese criticisms.“It’s meant to reflect diversity, have checks and balances on power and proceed in a manner where everyone has a say.”
China, in the meantime, has continued limited missile tests and made its military prowess known to Taiwan and parties present in the South China Sea. While belligerence has thus far been limited to talk, were the Trump administration take a tangibly aggressive stance in the South China Sea, China’s military will apparently be more than prepared to respond in kind.
