Why The Catalan Independence Movement Is Failing

Via GEFIRA,

The Catalan fight for independence is not how conflicts are fought throughout history, let alone how they are won.

Some movements for national independence have succeeded in history, others have not. Presently, it seems that the Catalan bid is destined to fail. Maybe in the future Catalans will change their strategy and achieve their goal, but at the moment of writing the Catalan independence movement can be described as a storm in a teacup.

We therefore looked at what worked in the past and is missing right now, or what clearly is not working.

1. A bad plan to begin with.

Catalan independence is about claiming sovereignty from Madrid, just to immediately relinquish it to Brussels. If this had been decades ago, before the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, maybe it wouldn’t have mattered. Now, especially after the Brexit vote, the EU leadership has decided to push forward with the European Federalist project, starting possibly with a Eurozone financial minister as proposed by French President Macron.The latter’s plan also includes a Eurozone budget and that’s where the Catalan plan makes even less sense: part of the resentment towards Madrid is because Catalans do not like regional fiscal transfers towards the rest of Spain. Would they like it if fiscal transfers were towards other European regions via Macron’s proposed Eurozone budget?Many

Catalans also resent the “austerity” imposed by Madrid. Yet it’s not Madrid imposing it, it’s Brussels. Yet Catalans want to dump Madrid because of austerity and then join Brussels?

Why leave a political system because of its unnerving centralism just to join one that is shifting towards centralization, even further from the will of the people?

The EU also does not like referenda.Mainly because it tends to be on the losing side. It lost the ones on the “European Constitution” in 2004 in the Netherlands and France. The Constitution was then pragmatically swapped into “Lisbon’s Treaty” with a number of formal changes, but even that one was rejected in a referendum by the Irish. This time, the EU leadership forced a remake, finally succeeding.

More recent examples saw the Greek referendum on austerity in the summer of 2015, where the Greeks rejected the “Troika”, just to be forced into a humiliating surrender; the Dutch referendum on the association treaty with Ukraine, which also rejected the agreement; and the already mentioned one in the UK on the European Union membership. The EU’s track record in referenda is poor at best, thus it’s no surprise that EU leaders distrust direct democracy. Indeed, the European Commission through the agency of its President Juncker, refused to support the Catalan bid,fearing an opening of Pandora’s box and further political fragmentation, that would allow anyone to leave political systems (including the EU) at will. One Brexit was enough.

The EU can’t also let Catalonia go without incurring needless risks; nor can Spain. As we explained previously, Catalan independence could spark a second Eurozone debt crisis.

Catalan nationalists chose to overlook the centralist, pro-austerity and anti-direct democracy nature of the current European Union. A bit too much to be ignored.

2. Inconclusive leadership.

The now former Catalan President Puigdemont is a champion of missing opportunities. If there ever was a chance to succeed, it was right after the referendum, regardless of its democratic credibility, when the moral was high and there was a momentum of political support. Puigdemont flinched. His first speech after the referendum left many supporters confused. He then signed a declaration of independence, just to suspend it within seconds.

Can anyone imagine the Founding Fathers of the United States of America doing the same? Or the Greek ones after the war with the Ottoman Empire?

When Puigdemont finally decided to go forward, it was too late. He had missed his date with history. There might not be another one.

3. Gun-free society.

American supporters of the Second Amendment will love this one. It is not necessarily an endorsement, but a historical observation. The former claim to fight against centralism just like their ancestors fought against the King of England. Catalans want to fight against Castilian centralism and the King of Spain (independent Catalonia would be a republic).

The irony is that a sizeable portion of Catalan nationalists within the Catalan parliament are left-of-the-centre progressives.We wonder thus if Catalan progressives now feel that the US Second Amendment is still a “relic of the past” and similarly shun the need for a “well regulated militia” against an oppressive government, like American progressives do.

Looking at historical precedents, why are the French still celebrating the “Bastille Day” as a symbol of their revolution? The fortress didn’t serve only as a prison, it was also an armory.

Catalonia also lacks its own army, while it can rely on its own police force, the “Mossos d’Esquarda”. Not enough to stop the Spanish forces to regain control of the situation with ease.

4. Lack of international recognition or foreign support.

We once again look at past examples: the French fought on the side of the American revolutionaries against the British; the British and the Russians fought on the side of the Greek in 1821. More recent examples, the US backed Slovenia, Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo and Montenegro in the successive splits from Serbia-dominated Yugoslavia. Similarly the US is backing the Kurdish ambition in Syria, while the Russians backed the Crimeans in their secession from Ukraine.

No one backed Catalonia. Nor has anyone so far recognized its independence. Foreign backing generally comes from powers interested in destabilizing the country facing a secessionist movement. No one seems to be interested in destabilizing Spain right now.

Foreign support often provides the weaponry for the insurgents to succeed in overthrowing the oppressors; should a civil war start in Catalonia and should a foreign power start to provide weapons to the Catalan insurgents, the Spanish government could be forced to let Catalonia go or fight an extremely costly war. However, we are not at this point.

Catalans put their faith in the EU, but it was misguided if not plainly delusional as discussed previously.

5. The “snowflake” generation.

Mass crowd rallies waving flags can be inspiring. They can also be hard to control once in movement. Not every crowd is the same, though. Waving flags does not make you independent. Not even the unilateral declaration of independence makes you so. A conditio sine qua non for an aspiring sovereign state is the ability to control its territory and defend it. Catalonia doesn’t seem to be able to do that.

When you look at the crowds of Catalan nationalists, there’s a widespread support among the youth. None of them however did any military service whatsoever. This is a common issue in Western Europe. The last generation that fought a war, the Second World War, is either dead or on its way out. Since then, military service has been progressively abolished. New generations don’t know how to fight.

They also don’t seem to be aware of what exactly they were doing. The Spanish Constitution forbids secession, hence Catalan independence is a rebellion against the constitutional order and as such is being treated by the Spanish government: it’s a revolution. When the Spanish police reacted against the Catalan referendum, Catalan nationalists took it on social media to express their outrage against “fascist Spain”. The disdain seemed to be shared by many Westerners. However, in every other part of the world, and at any other point in history, events of this type would leave dead bodies on the floor, regardless of “fascism”.

We are not inciting violence with this, we are simply making a historical observation.

It seems that the great plan of Catalan nationalists for independence was “Step aside while I make a revolution, otherwise I’m going to call you names. On Twitter. And maybe make a video on Youtube and share it with my friends on Facebook.” That’s it.

While Kurds are fighting Islamic terrorists and brandishing AK-47s in Syria, Catalans are brandishing their Iphones. The former are fighting for independence, the latter look like they are attending a pop concert.

Catalans over-relied on social media outrage to support their cause, just to find out that after a few days, people go back to their lives and lose interest. Nobody lifted a finger in favour of Catalonia. Not even Catalans themselves. It might be that the region is still wealthy despite some problems, hence a civil war would result in more material loss than the Catalans are ready to put up with for the prize of independence. This is not how revolutions are done.

Catalan Leader Urges "Peaceful" Rebellion As Spain Takes Over Government

Update (0920ET): A Spanish government spokesman has responded to Puigdemont"s address, saying that "Spain will not comment on comments by Puigdemont who is out of a job."

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, in a pre-record message this morning, Catalan separtist leader Carles Puigdemont urged Catalans to peacefully oppose Spain"s formal takeover of the region"s affairs.

Puigdemont said the activation of article 155 of the Spanish Constitution was illegitimate and called on Catalans to show "patience, perseverance" and faith in the future, and urged "democratic opposition" against Spanish government orders to sack his administration and dismiss the regional parliament.

As The Spain Report notes, he announced he Catalans must "continue defending" their new republic "with a sense of civic responsibility," adding "our will is to continue working to guarantee our democratic mandate".

The use of Article 155 to suspend home rule in Catalonia was a "premeditated attack on the majority will of Catalans" and "contrary" to democracy.

Puigdemont also called on pro-independence Catalans to be respectful of fellow Catalans who are in favor of Catalonia remaining within Spain. Puigdemont didn’t mention central government orders to remove him.

Presumably, Puigdemont"s calls suggest a strategy designed to compare Madrid"s forcefulness to Catalan"s peaceful protest, perhaps in an effort to garner more international favor - as most of the "developed" nations issued statements overnight declining to reecognize Catalonia and fully backing the establishment"s Spanish government.

Live broadcasts showed Puigdemont in a bar in the town of Girona at the time of the televised speech.

LATEST: Puigdemont was actually out drinking wine and having lunch in Girona at time of his pre-recorded message on TV3, @laSextaTV reports. pic.twitter.com/E40z58S6Qi

— The Spain Report (@thespainreport) October 28, 2017

Puigdemont declined to speak to reporters when he left the bar shortly after the speech.

Meanwhile, Spain begins implementation of Article 155:

Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz  de Santamaria takes over the management of the Catalonia area after Madrid took its autonomous status yesterday and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy fired the regional government, the agencies said, reports sega.

 

 

Spain"s Interior Minister Juan Ignacio Zoido is leading the Catalonian police after the chief of police, Jose Luis Trapero, was removed. Both decisions enter into force immediately.

However, La Vanguardia reports, members of the Catalan government don’t plan to accept being removed, citing sources it doesn’t name, though oit is unclear exactly what they will do. The Catalan government is reportedly preparing next steps in line with proclamation approved yesterday by the regional Parliament. Among the possibilities being weighed is calling constituent elections before the end of the year.

So what happens next?

The Duran.com"s Adam Garries lays out 5 possible scenarios...

1. Madrid ignores the implementation of the declaration of independence 

In many ways, it seems counter-intuitive to list this as the ‘most peaceful short term option’, not least because there is ostensibly no bigger insult to a peoples than to simply ignore their declaration of independence. This is ironically, not necessarily the case with Catalonia.

The very reason that Catalan independence was not declared on the 2nd of October is because the Catalan leadership are very moderate in their approach to the issue. Forgetting whether one finds the Catalan leaders inspiring or incipient, the fact of the matter is that they did not so much say “give me liberty or give me death” as they said “give me European values and give me those values on my terms at the soonest possible date after a period of polite discussions”.

Because Catalonia has shown the propensity to wait for a good faith negotiation partner during a very trying month and because furthermore, many Catalan politicians have insisted that they seek peace and cooperation whenever possible, the onus therefore is now very much on Madrid to de-escalate the situation.

Madrid could still go through with the technical firing of the Catalan government in order to administer the humdrum business of daily life in Catalonia for an interim period on their terms, but if Madrid were to officially adopt a position of ignoring the formal independence vote, it could still negotiate with independence leaders in another capacity.

The west, including Spain, continually speaks of ‘moderate rebels’ in places throughout the world, notably Syria, in spite of the fact that they are acting violently, using terrorism as their de-facto means of ‘political expression’, are mostly foreign proxies and are violating not only national but international law. With the exception of Catalonia violating Spanish law, included the much hated 1978 Spanish constitution, which many see as overtly Francoist in nature, none of this applies to Catalonia.

No one can reasonably say that Catalan independence supporters or their leaders are terrorists or post a direct threat to world peace as al-Qaeda, the FSA, Kurdish ethno-nationalists and ISIS do in places like Syria or Iraq. Furthermore, unlike Middle Eastern Kurds who are something of Israel’s de-facto regional puppets, Catalan independence movements have been part of Iberian history going back centuries. The Catalan struggle, in other-words, predates the creation of the dastardly Israeli colonial state, the birth of George Soros, the idea of the New World Order and the advent of neo-liberal economics.  To therefore say that Catalan independence is about any of these things, as many have, fails to realise the long historical basis which underlies recent events in Catalonia.

Because of this, Madrid  has nothing to lose, yet much to gain from engaging in negotiations with the leaders of the independence movement. Had Madrid negotiated directly with the leaders in Barcelona, the entire independence movement may have fizzled-out over time, in the same way that Brexit appears to be doing in another EU state, or otherwise, Madrid could have agreed to a situation whereby Catalonia settles on an Andorra like solution whereby Catalonia becomes a state formally protected by Spain (as Andorra is technically protected by France), while technically enjoying the desired benefits of EU membership which logically derive from the ‘protector’ state. Because of Catalonia’s size vis-a-vis Andorra, some sort of financial agreement could be agreed upon on a per annum basis.

Such a solution would require creativity, but crucially it requires no blood and could be arranged to create face-saving and money saving measures that cover both sides in terms of economic, political and even ego driven requirements and desires. It is still not too late to achieve this as the “slowly-slowly” attitude in Barcelona has not dramatically changed, in spite of recent dramatic events. In this sense, yesterday’s vote was more of a sign that Barcelona is not bluffing, that it is a sign that Madrid is now an automatic enemy of the largely unrecognised new Catalan Republic.

2. Barcelona initiates a dialogue process….and it works 

It must be re-stated that one of the reasons Catalonia implemented a declaration of independence yesterday was because it felt it had no option to do anything else. If Catalonia’s leaders did nothing while Madrid moved to abolish their autonomy, they would have looked weak before the eyes of their constituents and ineffective in the eyes of the world from which they will need to garner support, in one way or another.

Thus, we now know that Catalonia’s leaders have the collective strength to do what they said they would do. But can they now do something more difficult? Can they offer the wider world an option that cannot be refused?

Catalonia has gone out of its way to do that which, for example, the Kurds in the Middle East have not done. While Kurds have resorted to armed conflict and terrorism in their disregard for both national and international law, Catalans have practised entirely peaceful civil disobedience in arguable violation of national law, but in full compliance with EU law which is theoretically superior to national law in many cases, among member states.

The fact that Catalans are being totally disregarded by most EU states and the EU itself, is symptomatic of double-standards in the west, whereby an armed terrorist in Asia or Africa is a ‘freedom fighter’, but peaceful individuals initiating a controversial but totally non-violent political process in the west, are somehow bandits. Furthermore, Catalonia is a regional crisis and for the EU, an existential crisis. Such a reality is miles away from the very real security crisis that Turkey, Syria and Iran felt when Iraqi Kurds, machine guns in hand, voted in a secession referendum which went beyond their legally defined autonomous borders within Iraq. Again, none of this applies to Catalonia.

If followed to its logical conclusion, Catalonia can now call on international mediators to instigate a process for dialogue that Madrid simply could not ignore. If such a process fails, it will represent a total failure of the so-called international community. If not a single nation, not the UN, not a former UN Secretary General, not a single peace activist can step forward and heed Catalonia’s calls for a truly international dialogue process to be organised, then there truly is no international community to speak of. It certainly behoves Catalonia to attempt and find out.

3. Duelling governments in Barcelona 

Madrid is set to appoint a new interim leadership in Barcelona who will answer directly to the Spanish government, while calling for new elections to form a Catalan parliament in December. The effectiveness of such a move depends on the de-facto current leaders in Barcelona (Puigdemont et al.) and their supporters simply going away quietly.

If anyone thinks it is likely that after a long standoff which was capped by the declaration of a Catalan Republic will end the moment Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy sends ‘his man’ to Barcelona, then they are not living in the real world.

With two competing governments in Barcelona, the short term confusion and deadlock could lead to disaster, as shall be explored in the following two, very un-peaceful possibilities.

4. Mass arrests of Catalan independence leaders 

Spain has already set a worrying precedent by arresting Catalan independence organisers on sedition charges. There are now open fears that such a precedent could now lead to the arrest of the entire de-facto leadership in Barcelona, as well as many members of the Catalan parliament (even though the vote for independence was conducted via secret ballot).

This would not only set-off an uncontrollable chain reaction of fear and almost certainly violence in Catalonia and beyond, but would set off a chain of lawsuits which would test the primacy of national law versus EU and international law. If Madrid were to invoke the most neo-Francoist elements of its constitution and subsequently conduct mass arrests reminiscent of the 1930s, it would not only embolden more Catalans than ever in their desire to breakaway from Spain permanently, but it will be guaranteed to keep both the European Court of Human Rights and the European Court of Justice busy for years if not decades to come.

The legal issues which currently exist, could and should be solved through mediation followed by an accord. However, if mass arrests of prominent Catalan leaders are conducted by Spain, a larger legal Pandora’s Box would be flung open and more importantly, any claim of a peaceful regional dispute would be forever lost. Instead, it would be a repeat of the 1930s in more ways than one, combined with the legal labyrinth of 21st century judicial mechanisms.

5. Civil War 

Depending of various push-pull factors at play, a repeat, however microcosmic, of the 1930s Spanish Civil War could take place. If Madrid cracks down hard on political leaders, demonstrators and other civil bodies in Catalonia, it is possible that Catalans could find the means to arm themselves and fight back.

If an armed struggle took place in the heart of the EU, not only would it quite possibly be the end of Spain and western Europe as we know it, but it could be the end of the EU…full stop.

Whatever would be leftover, would by definition be unrecognisable and only a great deal of effort to put the region back together could restore peace.

For mercenary thinkers who see questions of war and peace simply in economic terms, it is worth saying this: for the moment, the Catalan crisis has not drastically impacted global markets. If things escalate into an armed civil conflict, it will impact markets, but primarily in Europe with some ricochets in North America.  The rest of the world will remain financially stable.

This will be the ultimate sign that an Iberian peninsula which once ruled large quarters of the world, is now reduced to a corner of a European Union that far from leading the world, can now, barely lead itself.

In many ways, this will be the ultimate wake-up call.

"It"s A Coup": Catalan President Slams "Worst Attack" By Spain "Since Franco Dictatorship"

Update: The defiant Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, addressed Catalans, Spaniards, and the rest of Europe on TV saying that the Spanish states" imposition of Article 155 means "liquidation of our self-government and cancellation of the democratic will of Catalans".  In other words, he made it quite clear that the region"s leaders would not accept direct rule imposed on the region by the Spanish government, as a political crisis that has rattled the economy and raised fears of prolonged unrest showed no signs of easing.

Puigdemont said Rajoy had set out to "humiliate" Catalonia in an "attack on democracy" and said removing powers from Catalonia was the "worst attack against the institutions and the people of Catalonia since the military dictatorship of Francisco Franco".

After taking party in peaceful demonstration, Puigdemont expressed his rejection of Madrid’s move, but stopped short of saying he would make good his threat to push ahead with the independence bid before direct rule takes effect.

“I ask the (Catalan) parliament to meet in a plenary session during which we, the representatives of the citizens’ sovereignty, will be able to decide over this attempt to liquidate our government and our democracy, and act in consequence,” Puigdemont said in a televised address.

Puigdemont also said Spain "closed the doors ot a request for talks, and should set a date to discuss the attack" and "Catalan institutions cannot accept attack by Spain."

In a striking accusation, the Catalan president said that "Catalan institutions dealt a coup by Spanish state." Puigdemont then switched to English to appeal to Europeans, says democracy also at risk in Europe: "Catalonia is an ancient European nation". He also announced a session in Catalan parliament to debate "the attempt to liquidate our self-government".

Puigdemont concluded by saying "Long live Catalonia" to which a silently listening crowd suddenly burst back into cheers and chanting.

However, as noted, Puigdemont did not specifically declare independence, but said Catalonia will not accept Madrid"s plan to curb region"s powers, leaving one tiny, final loophole.

The Senate vote that would give Madrid full control of Catalonia’s finances, police and public media and curb the powers of the regional parliament for up to six months is scheduled for next Friday. That could give the independence movement room to maneuver.

The regional parliament’s speaker, Carme Forcadell, said she would not accept Madrid’s move and accused Rajoy of a “coup.” “Prime Minister Rajoy wants the parliament of Catalonia to stop being a democratic parliament, and we will not allow this to happen,” Forcadell said in a televised speech.

In the latest can kicking yet, the Catalan assembly is expected to decide on Monday whether to hold a session to formally proclaim the republic of the region. Catalan media have said Puigdemont could dissolve the regional parliament and call elections by next Friday. Under Catalan law, those elections would take place within two months.

That would enable Puigdemont to go the polls earlier than envisaged by Rajoy, who spoke of a six-month timetable, and to exploit the anti-Madrid sentiment running high in the region.

According to Reuters, pro-independence groups have previously mustered more than 1 million people onto the streets in protest at Madrid’s refusal to negotiate a solution.
 

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, with Spain officially pulling the trigger on Article 155, and activating the Spanish Constitutional "nuclear option" this morning, when PM Rajoy said he would seize control of the Catalan government, fire everyone and force new elections in six months, attention has shifted to the Catalan response. And as we waited for the official statement by Catalan separatist president Carles Puigdemont, expected at 9pm local time, we found him taking to the streets, where he led hundreds of thousands of independence supporters in protest around Barcelona on Saturday, shouting "freedom" and "independence" following the stunning news from Madrid earlier on Saturday.

The protest in the center of the Catalan capital had initially been called to push for the release of the leaders of two hugely influential grassroots independence organisations, accused of sedition and jailed pending further investigation. But it took on an even angrier tone after Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced his government would move to dismiss the region"s separatist government, take control of its ministries and call fresh elections in Catalonia.

According to municipal police, over 450,000 people rallied on Barcelona"s expansive Paseo de Gracia boulevard, spilling over on to nearby streets, many holding Catalonia"s yellow, red and blue Estelada separatist flag.

Catalan regional vice-president Oriol Junqueras and Catalan regional president
Carles Puigdemont attend a demonstration on October 21, 2017 in Barcelona

Protesters greeted Puigdemont"s arrival at the rally with shouts of "President, President." The rest of his executive was also there.

For at least some locals, the time to split from Spain has come: "It"s time to declare independence," said Jordi Balta, a 28-year-old stationery shop employee quoted by AFP, adding there was no longer any room for dialogue.

Others disgree: "The Catalans are completely disconnected from Spanish institutions, and particularly anything to do with the Spanish state," said Ramon Millol, a 45-year-old mechanic.

Meritxell Agut, a 22-year-old bank worker, said she was "completely outraged and really sad." "They can destroy the government, they can destroy everything they want but we"ll keep on fighting."

Catalonia is roughly split down the middle on independence, but residents cherish the autonomy of the wealthy, northeastern region, which saw its powers taken away under the dictatorship of General Francisco Franco. Which is why, as many have warned, Madrid"s move could anger even those against independence.

Barcelona"s Mayor Ada Colau, who opposes the independence drive, tweeted: "Rajoy has suspended the self-government of Catalonia for which so many people fought. A serious attack on the rights and freedoms of everyone."

Meanwhile, the anger keeps rising: as a police helicopter hovered above, protesters booed and gave it the finger. "I wish they would just go," said Balta, looking up at the sky.

The Spanish government"s proposed measures still have to be approved by the Senate. But the upper house is majority-controlled by Rajoy"s ruling Popular Party and he has secured the support of other major parties, meaning they will almost certainly go through.

Puigdemont is expected to make a statement at 9 p.m. For Catalonia, and Spain, it will - literally - mean the difference between independence and remaining part of Spain. It could also mean the difference between peace and a violent crackdown by Madrid on what it has seen since day one as an illegal independence process. For the Catalan leader, the stakes are huge:  El Pais reported Puigdemont faces a charge of sedition, punishable by up to 30 years in prison, if he formally declares independence or tries to change the Spanish constitution.

The Spanish Civil War, Revisited: Pepe Escobar Fears "Lethal Response" From Madrid

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

Puigdemont"s political twist could invoke a lethal response from Madrid: suspension of Catalonia"s government

Call it theatre of the absurd – with a lethal subtext. Under pressure from all corners – even Donald Tusk, president of the EU Council – in his fateful date with destiny Carles Puigdemont, President of Catalonia, came up with some last-minute judo dialectics. He issued a non-denial denial Unilateral Declaration of Independence from Spain. What was declared was immediately suspended; the Republic of Catalonia lasted for six seconds.

The deft political gambit left Madrid predictably bewildered. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, a.k.a. nano-Franco, issued an ultimatum; you have five days to say if you declared independence or not.

Independent of the answer, Madrid’s nuclear option remains on the cards; infamous article 155 of the Constitution, which calls for the suspension of Catalonia’s government and parliament from six to 12 months.

Yet that may come with a twist; a 155 in slow motion, parallel to the hazy offer of starting a process, in six months maximum, leading to Spanish constitutional reform. Madrid needs Catalonia for this reform to succeed. So, essentially, Puigdemont just needs to say “no” for the train to start rolling.

It’s way more complex than it seems. The Catalan extreme left, up to the last minute, was trying to convince Puigdemont to proclaim unconditional independence. At the same time, those six seconds left Catalan unionists predictably furious. Moderates for their part prefer to see a faint light at the end of the tunnel.

The problem is that even with discreet back channels in place, Madrid’s strategy is to ultimately force a fissure in the independentist coalition; secession inside Catalonia to prevent secession from Spain. So far, the fissure has been prevented by some members of the Catalonian Parliament signing a declaration of support for the – still non-existent – republic.

Scrap that constitution

The President of the Cantabria region, Miguel Ángel Revilla, sums it all up: Rajoy is to blame. Revilla worries that “50% of Catalans want to leave Spain. Four years ago, that was not the case.” He stresses how a “Catalan statute – approved by the Catalans and the Spanish Parliament – was impugned by the Constitutional court, so they had to be mad, right? It did not deal with independence, it was a pact, delineating a series of obligations.”

So the unwillingness of the Spanish government to talk, according to Revilla, is what led to the current impasse. No wonder; Rajoy is closely advised by former Prime Minister José María Aznar.

The extremely reactionary administration in place in Madrid could have defused the bomb even before the referendum, by mobilizing sectors of the working class in Catalonia whose first language is Spanish, not Catalan; many of these view the independence dossier as a “war of the elites”.

Madrid though opted for Franco-ist repression tactics. King Felipe VI had one chance to appeal for calm and reunite the nation; he chose to play Scaremonger-in-Chief. EU “leaders” stuck to platitudes, like Rothschild favorite Emmanuel Macron extolling his “profound” vision of an integrated Europe and Chancellor Angela Merkel abdicating from her role of Dispenser of Wisdom; after all, this is not Crimea.

The European Commission (EC), losing the scarce credibility it still possessed, sharply ignored its own “core values”; the rights of national minorities enshrined in Article 2 of the EU founding treaty, as well as Article 21 of its charter of fundamental rights.

Podemos has some decent ideas to “save Spanish democracy”.

Yet there seems to be only one sensible road map ahead.

1. Kick out the incompetent, nano-Franco administration, which does not want any dialogue; a tough call in a nation so viscerally conservative as Spain.


2. Explain to everyone in Catalonia, especially the different strands of the working class, what independence would mean in practice – something the current “leaders” are incapable of. Catalonia – one of the EU’s wealthiest regions – in or out of the EU? Trading in which currency? Without an army? Able to manage a neighboring hostile power (Spain) and not recognized by France?


3. Launch a comprehensive national dialogue process to reform the outdated 1978 constitution – privileging a modern, federal charter, emphasizing more consensus among regions, and considering the concerns of at least 25% of hardcore independentists in Catalonia.

None of this seems to be on the cards – and that’s why the real tragedy is only beginning. Spain is already broken – and there will be no turning back.

Calling Rosa Luxemburg

The temptation to strike parallels with Europe a century ago are strong. What about adapting Rosa Luxemburg’s latest, searing essay before she was assassinated in January 1919; “You stupid henchmen! Your ‘order’ is built on sand.” At the same time Rosa Luxemburg warned the Left about the petty-bourgeois nationalisms emerging after the collapse of the Habsburgs (the exception was Czechoslovakia.)

“Catalanism” – which sprang up in the 19^th century – is a different beast though. The Barcelona-Madrid fissure is based on deep economic/fiscal reasons, amplified by the dire consequences of the financial crisis in Spain since 2008. Catalonia’s nationalism is not narrow-minded but inclusive, largely open to The Other – from other parts of Spain and abroad.

The intractability of the political problem is that Catalonia – the most European of all Spanish regions and historically in favor of republicanism and federalism – contests the very essence of the Spanish system. To scrap this outdated constitution – written immediately after Franco’s demise and drenched in amnesty for Franco-ists – is as important as self-determination. To say that the Bourbons face a legitimacy crisis is a major understatement.

Madrid’s actions on Referendum Repression Day – led by a Franco-ist partisan of torture, infamous General Bum-Bum – could not but revive the memory of Catalonia as the key anarchist/republican hub during the Spanish Civil War; the Civil Guard in itself represents the memory of Francoism. It’s understandable how separatists prefer to discard the historic/ financial heavy load when they see the impossibility of a true modernization of Spain.

The prospect of an implosion of this current Spanish state – with repercussions everywhere from the Basque country to Scotland –   should be driving Europeans east and west to think hard about all the interconnections between city, territory, nation, state and (European) union; a healthy exercise in political economy thinking.

Instead, once again, we have total Brussels paralysis. There’s no plan B. Worse; there’s no political will, as some Greens at the European Parliament have remarked. No wonder, with EU “leaders” as mediocre as the Juncker/Tusk bunch, and the number two of the EC, Dutch jurist Frans Timmermans, saying that “sometimes the rule of law must be preserved by a proportionate use of force.”

Brussels, facing the prospect of a region that may leave in one go not only the EU but also the euro, is incapable to see that the Spanish fracture is a microcosm of the nation-state fracture inside the EU. The Juncker/Tusk unconditional support for nano-Franco cannot but be interpreted all across progressive European circles for what it is; what good could possibly emerge out of “mediation” by these non-entities? It’s civil society, in tandem, in Spain and Catalonia, that should be the mediators. One wonders if they’re up to the task.

Jatras: All Of Spain Should Vote On Catalan Independence

Hundreds of thousands of Catalonians took to the streets - estimated by the police at 350,000 people, though organizers said it was twice that - to demonstrate against independence this weekend:

“Catalonia is not all for independence,” said José Manuel Alaminos, a 64-year-old lawyer. He said that Carles Puigdemont, the regional president who has led the independence movement, “is supposed to represent all of us.”

The separatist push has brought about one of Spain’s worst constitutional crises since the end of the Franco dictatorship nearly 43 years ago.

“But we are Catalonians too! The world doesn’t know the truth,” Mr. Alaminos said, pointing to the enormous crowd. “This is the truth.”

Despite the overwhelmning results of the referendum, the region remains, in fact, deeply split over independence.

Additionally, in an interview with El Pais newspaper, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he will consider taking the so-called "nuclear option" - the dramatic measure of suspending Catalonia"s autonomous status - as Catalan leaders escalate threats to declare independence from the country, which could culminate with a parliamentary announcement as soon as Monday.

Asked if he was ready to trigger article 155, Rajoy told El Pais newspaper:

“ I am not ruling out anything that the law says. What I have to do is do things at the right time, which is the most important thing right now. The ideal situation would be to not have to take drastic solutions, but for that to happen there would have to be rectifications."

It remains unclear just how the current Spain crisis is resolved: the past week in Catalonia has been nothing short of chaotic, but James George Jatra, via The Strategic Culture Foundation, has one potential solution: All Of Spain Should Vote On Catalan Independence.

There is a certain frame of mind that believes that secession by ethnic minorities is an absolute good in itself. Asked the question, “Should Region X have the right to secede from Country Y?”, a lot of people will answer with a resounding “Yes!” without knowing or even caring where X and Y are or who lives there.

Others are more selective, relying instead on the Bolshevik principle of kto-kovo (“who-whom”), which relegates the righteousness of secession to whether or not the observer likes or dislikes the state in question. This is typical of western governments. Good secessions are from countries we don’t like – Serbia above all, of course. Independent Kosovo: good. Montenegro’s separation from its union with Serbia: good. But Republika Srpska’s possible separation from Bosnia and Herzegovina: bad. Independence of Serbian Kraijinas from secessionist Croatia: emphatically bad. Northern Kosovo and Metohija’s separation from “sovereign, independent Kosovo”: very, very bad.

The only constant: Serbs are always wrong.

The same subjective kto-kovo frames conflicts in the former Soviet Union. The deus ex machina independence of all the former Union Republics was an automatic and positive development. But the desire of any portion of them – Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Adzharia (Georgia), Pridnestrovie, Gagauzia (Moldova), Crimea, Donbass (Ukraine) – to leave its former Union Republic is per se illegitimate, notwithstanding the 1990 Soviet law on secession requiring separate referenda in such entities.

The desire of Catalans – or more precisely, of some undetermined portion of people living in Catalonia – to secede from Spain is different because it doesn’t fit into the usual kto-kovo international lineup. One finds among Catalan sympathizers many of the usual partisans of biased western selectivity as well as some of their fiercest critics (such as the usually sound Pepe Escobar). Likewise, members of both of the usual camps have expressed opposition to Catalan secession, either out of mechanical support for “western institutions” (the European Union, the US) or consistent support for the principle of state sovereignty (the government of Serbia and most of the countries that oppose an independent Kosovo).

In the court of public opinion, the pro-independence camp has gained the upper hand. While the Catalan referendum was clearly illegal under Spanish law and the Spanish authorities had every right to shut it down, the TV images of police using physical force to prevent people from casting a ballot played badly against Madrid – which is no doubt what was intended. If, as expected, Catalan independence is declared in the coming days, Madrid will have little choice but to suspend Catalonia’s autonomy, further radicalizing the situation. (Remember how the west falsely cited Slobodan Milosevic’s supposedly “abolishing” of Kosovo’s “constitutionally guaranteed autonomy” in 1989 as proof of an impending “final solution” against the province’s Albanians.)

The morality play of Madrid’s “authoritarian” violation of “democracy” brings us to another canard: the notion that the “will of the Catalan people” is paramount. This is misguided for at least two reasons...

First, who decided that Catalonia as a subdivision of Spain, or of Catalans as a distinct nation, is in a position to asset a sovereign, united “will” apart from the rest of Spain? As was the case with Kosovo (and just a week ago, in Iraqi Kurdistan), Catalonia demonstrates the futility of granting autonomy to a region based on a minority ethnic, linguistic, or religious identity. Doing so only whets that minority’s demand for more cession of power, culminating in the demand for independence. (Hence, in Serbia the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina endorsed the Catalan referendum.)

Second, granting presumptive sovereignty to an aspiring secessionist entity always ends up shortchanging those who don’t want to secede. This can take more than one form. One example is the “West Virginia” model, whereby one region within the entity doesn’t want to leave; comparable to Pridnestrovie, South Ossetia, Republika Srpska, etc. Another is intimidation of citizens who are loyal to the common state – who according to polls represent a majority in Catalonia. As stated by film director Isabel Coixet i Castillo in El País:

I see now, with horrifying clarity, that no matter what happens next, there is no room here for me or for anybody who dares to think independently, even though this is my birthplace. Today it is insults against me, yesterday it was insults against members of my family; the day before it was insults against friends of mine whose other friends openly criticize the fact that the former are still friends with me. And tomorrow, it will be something worse. [ . . . ]

Because if, when you condemn the (Spanish) government’s actions, you don’t also condone the Catalan government’s actions, you immediately become an enemy, a fascist, a fascistoid, a Franco follower, the scum of the earth. And you think about the fear that has already covered, like spores, the skin of all those people who keep quiet but who secretly come tell you that they’re on your side – that they are grateful for what you are doing, and then they tell you that they don’t even talk about the situation inside their own homes, for fear that their children will hear them and get into trouble at school.

These are not mere anecdotes. This is the reality on the ground for those of us who live here. This is the new, shocking fracture of a society that used to live in peace and without fear, with logical differences of opinion and different values and different criteria, but always on a foundation of respect.

Madrid has stumbled badly. Whether the situation is already unsalvageable is unclear at this point. What is clear is that increasing confrontation and repression, however legal and even necessary, will bolster the intolerant, revolutionary repression of Spanish patriots and embolden secessionists.

When Catalan authorities scheduled their referendum, Madrid could have coopted it by saying, “Great idea! The whole of Spain will vote on whether Catalonia should be independent.”

Not only would that have given the rest of the country a voice, it would have allowed the cowed and silent majority within Catalonia to express its will. Perhaps even at this late date it’s an idea the Spanish government should consider.

The Catalan Chain Reaction

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Oriental Review,

Catalonia’s drive for “independence” has unleashed a chain reaction of viral social media support that’s frighteningly resurrected civil war-era rhetoric, but the most dangerous consequences of this domino effect are yet to come if the separatists are ultimately successful in their quest.

The Nostalgia Narrative

The Catalan “independence” cause has taken the world by storm, thrown into the global spotlight by the heavily publicized referendum earlier this week and Madrid’s forceful response to this unconstitutional measure. Supporters all across the world have been energized by the recent events and have taken to describing them in civil war-era terms as a battle between “democracy” and “fascism”. Furthermore, they also accuse the Rajoy government of being “Francoists”, as they do the country’s post-Franco 1978 Constitution which returned Catalonia’s autonomy in an even more robust way than before and even bestowed this privilege to the rest of the country as well.

Although it can be safely presumed that Spain naturally retained some of the “Francoist” members of its permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) after the death of their movement’s eponymous leader, it’s an exaggeration to refer to the constitution and the present government as “Francoists” in the sense of what the term stereotypically implies. Rather, the improper use of such polarizing civil war-era terms demonstrates that the separatists are trying to capitalize on the revolutionary nostalgia that their domestic and foreign supporters have for reliving the 1936-1939 anarcho-communist experiment via a simulacrum, one which plays out differently depending on their audience.

Two Simulacra

As it relates to the Catalans themselves, this is meant to force them into the false binary choice between “standing with their ancestors against fascism” or “betraying their motherland for the Francoists”. Concerning the foreign supporters of the Catalan separatists, they’re supposed to get riled up and vent their hatred against Madrid and impassioned support for Barcelona all throughout social media, picking up on the cue that they should inaccurately compare modern-day Madrid to post-Maidan Kiev in making the Alt-Media argument that Catalonia has as much of a right to “independence” as Crimea does to its reunification with Russia.

This is a false equivocation, the full debunking of which isn’t the focus of this article however, as it’s important enough in this context to draw attention to the polemical chain reaction that’s being spun by the separatists and their supporters in crafting a self-interested narrative for serving their cause. There are many well-intentioned individuals who are standing behind Barcelona, so it’s not at all to infer that most of them don’t sincerely believe in this interpretation of events, but the point here is just to highlight how Catalonia’s “independence” crusade is exploiting historical memory and revolutionary nostalgia in order to advance its organizers’ argument that the region needs to split from Spain.

Spanish Scenarios

Centralized Crackdown:

While most people might be led to think that the Catalan Crisis is solely between Barcelona and Madrid, the fact is that it actually involves all of Spain and is poised to have geopolitical reverberations throughout the entirety of Europe. Concerning the politically unstable Iberian country, Catalonia’s separatist campaign already crossed the Rubicon of no return after the referendum and Madrid’s reaction to it, so there’s no going back to the previous status quo. This means that only three scenarios are probable: a centralized crackdown, Identity Federalism, and separatism. The first one could see the state implement Article 155 of the constitution in temporarily imposing direct rule over the region, though with the expected consequence being that it might catalyze a low-scale civil war if the Catalans resort to terrorist-insurgent tactics to resist.

Identity Federalism:

The next scenario is Identity Federalism, which would require the revocation or reform of Article 145 in devolving the centralized state into a federation or confederation of regions, each of which could theoretically function as quasi-independent statelets with their own economic, military, and foreign policies. Essentially, this would be the transplantation of the Bosnian model onto Spain, albeit with added privileges given to each constituent member. As with the centralized crackdown scenario, this is likely to lead to violence, and would probably only occur as a “compromise solution” to any prolonged conflict. Madrid does not want to lose control of the country and see the Iberian Peninsula in southwestern Europe “Balkanized” like its namesake counterpart in Southeastern Europe, which is why this outcome probably wouldn’t ever happen in peacetime.

Secessionism:

Finally, the last possibility for how the Catalan Crisis could play out is that the restive region becomes “independent” from Spain and is recognized by at least one country or more, which in all likelihood might end up being some of the Baltic and/or Balkan states before anyone else. Spain wouldn’t be able to survive in its present administrative-political format with the loss of roughly 20% of its GDP, so the rump state would either have to be radically reformed, undergo a “stabilizing” military coup, or fully collapse in a collection of “countries” just like the former Yugoslavia did a generation ago. As for Catalonia, it could become a base for foreign (NATO/Western/American) intervention into what might then descend into a multisided civil war. A weakened Spain or its remnants also wouldn’t be able to defend from an African-originating “Weapons of Mass Migration” tidal wave into Europe, either.

Geopolitical Chain Reactions

Forecasting is never an exact science, but it is indeed an art, and with that being said, there’s no guarantee that any of the aforementioned scenarios will play out, though if they do, they’ll inevitably have very serious geopolitical ramifications which could end up sparking a chain reaction throughout the region and beyond. The centralized crackdown might lead to a civil war that could either be contained to Catalonia or come to engulf other traditionally sovereign-minded areas such as Basque Country or Galicia too, to say nothing of the rest of the country in general. That said, and accepting that the consequences would inevitably spread to at least Portugal and France as well with time, this sequence of events isn’t what’s the most continentally explosive, as it’s the scenarios of Identity Federalism and “independence” that are the most dangerous.

The “Catalan Countries”:

Before going any further, both of these would guarantee that the Catalan Crisis becomes an existential one for Spain. The nominal Kingdom can’t devolve into a federation without changing the constitution, and even if this unlikely event were to happen, then Catalonia might seek to rearrange the country’s internal boundaries in a nationalist bid to gobble up the territory that its most jingoistic supporters claim as constituting the “Catalan countries”. This ultra-extreme concept holds that the modern-day borders of Catalonia don’t represent the historic geo-cultural space of the Catalan people, so they therefore need to be expanded to include all or some of the Spanish regions of Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Valencia, as well as the country of Andorra and the French department of Pyrénées-Orientales (also known as “Roussillon” or “Northern/French Catalonia”).

Most of the people in these areas don’t want to be part of a “Greater Catalonia”, but the hyper-nationalists in charge of the Identity Federalized or “independent” state might resort to subterfuge or force in pressing their claims, even if they don’t do so right away. The concept of the “Catalan countries” is therefore a very dangerous one because it means that the Catalonia issue will inevitably have pronounced internal geopolitical consequences for Spain and also possibly even France as well if the separatists in control of Barcelona right now eventually get their way. Again, the Identity Federalism scenario would likely only result from a war brought about by a centralized crackdown, and would represent a (temporary) “compromise solution” to outright separatism, though with the latent dangers that would come from the latter with time.

Regional Copycats:

European regions allegedly seeking independence from the host states.

Whether it’s Identity Federalism or separatism, either of these outcomes could encourage regional copycats all throughout the EU. The UK “Independent” published a very misleading map just the other day claiming to have pinpointed all of the other Catalan-like political movements in Europe, obviously inferring that they could be next if the Barcelonan separatists are successful. The salient point being made here isn’t that each and every one of them will rise up in Color Revolution-esque fervor just like the Catalans did, but that some of them will undoubtedly be inspired to push forth with their agenda in fracturing their home countries and contributing to the “regionalization of Europe”. Other than the Spanish examples mentioned in the map, this could also see a chain reaction occurring in Scotland, Northern Italy, Germany’s Bavaria, and maybe even parts of France too.

The Hungarian minority that’s been living outside of their nation-state ever since the 1920 Treaty of Trianon might agitate for reunification with their homeland, which could destabilize the politically tenuous situation in Central Europe and the Balkans. It could also make Prime Minister Orban, if he’s still serving by that time, an easy target for liberal-leftist Mainstream Media attacks that he’s the “New Hitler” for wanting to reunify with his compatriots abroad. All that these regional copycats would have to do, regardless of the validity behind their claims and socio-political movements, is to organize highly publicized unconstitutional referenda in order to provoke the state into a forceful response that could in turn “legitimize” a Color Revolution in the said peripheral region. The result doesn’t necessarily have to be separatism, but Identity Federalism, as this end is essentially the same in the structural sense.

“Euro-Federalism”:

The devolution of once-unified states into identity-“federalized” ones de-facto internally partitioned along ethno-regional lines would interestingly promote the cause of “Euro-Federalism” that Gearóid Ó Colmáin described in his latest article titled “Catalan ‘independence’: a tool of capital against labour”. His work builds upon the 1992 proposal by billionaire Europhile Freddy Heineken to “federalize” Europe along regional lines, which was likely the unstated inspiration behind Belgian bureaucrat-academic Luk Van Langenhove’s 2008 policy suggestion urging “Power To The Regions, But Not Yet Farewell To The Nation State”. The bigger picture here is quintessentially one of divide and rule, albeit modified for the EU’s post-Brexit conditions.

The author himself spoke about this in a different context in his summer 2016 article for The Duran about the “Post-Brexit EU: Between Regional Breakdown and Full-Blown Dictatorship”, in which it was postulated that the bloc might devolve into regionally focused state-driven organizations in the future. What’s happening instead is that Brussels might be preparing for a further devolution beyond the member states themselves and to the individual regions within (and sometimes, even between) them. This represents a modification of what the author wrote in his earlier work titled “Identity Federalism: From “E Pluribus Unum” To “E Unum Pluribus”, which appears at this moment to have incorrectly concluded that the EU wouldn’t go forward with this scenario out of fear that it could invite more “Weapons of Mass Migration” from the Global South (in the Spanish case, from Northern and Western Africa), as well as create geostrategic opportunities for Russia and China.

 Standing corrected with the wisdom of hindsight and in light of recent events, especially the insight that the author acquired through his research on Civilizational Aggression, it now seems as though the very same scenario of the EU collapsing into a constellation of regional entities is being partially experimented with by none other than  Brussels itself as the ultimate divide-and-rule stratagem for controlling the bloc in the post-Brexit era. This doesn’t mean that the process will be taken to its extreme –so long as it’s still “controllable” – but just that the EU does indeed seem to be tinkering with this as part of its phased adaptive approach to the emerging Multipolar World Order.

Concluding Thoughts

Catalonia is globally significant because of the chain reaction that its separatists have started in furthering the scenario of a “controlled” devolution-collapse of the EU’s existing member-state order into a more “flexible” hybrid one of politically equal national and regional entities. If Catalonia serves as a successful example, whether in the Identity Federalized or separatist instances, then it could have a powerful demonstration effect elsewhere in the EU by encouraging other copycat movements, thereby redirecting what might have otherwise been semi-multipolar forces into the false allure of “independence” within a de-facto strengthened EU and even NATO.

This is very possible because the Catalan precedent would clearly indicate that no EU member state’s territorial integrity and constitution are safe from the globalist desires of a separatist Color Revolutionary and possibly even Hybrid War vanguard, thereby dealing a heavy blow to the right-wing “sovereignists” (publicly smeared as “nationalists” in the Mainstream Media) who are coming to the fore of European politics nowadays. After all, the so-called “Catalan Question” was supposed to have been settled by the 1978 Constitution that gave the region an even more robust autonomy than it had ever enjoyed before in history, so if this can be reversed, then Pandora’s Box has truly been reopened all across the EU.

Another point to dwell upon is the viralness with which the Catalan separatist cause spread through global Mainstream and Alternative Medias, as this provides crucial insight into how other movements might attain such tremendous soft power in such a short time in the future. It helps if they’re tourist destinations where lots of foreigners have visited and acquired an affinity for the local culture and environs, as well as if there’s a civil war- or other conflict-era history (no matter how distant, decontextualized, and/or irrelevant to the present) that could be spun to “legitimize” the said “federalist”-separatist cause.

Altogether, the Catalan case study in all of its dimensions is very instructive in demonstrating how the declining Unipolar World Order is seeking to adapt to multipolarity, and its state of affairs at any given time provides a decent barometer for gauging the dynamics of this process.

Catalonia Bonds Collapse As Police Warn Of Chaos If Referendum Canceled

While the Catalan people prepare to decide whether to break with Spain, the bond market appears to have already made its mind up as Catalonia bonds decouple from Spanish sovereign yields.

Catalonia Bonds expiring next year have seen yields spike over 2% - the highest in over a year - and more than 230bps higher than the equivalent Spanish sovereign bond yields...

As The FT reports, in a special report released earlier this week, Rabobank’s Maartje Wijffelaars warned that “the relationship between Madrid and Barcelona has exponentially worsened in the past months, and it’s unclear how to put the genie back in the bottle”.

And judging by the Catalan police concerns, this will get a lot worse before it gets any better...

As France24 reports, Catalan police warned Wednesday that public disorder may erupt as Spain orders the authorities to seal polling stations and stop the region holding a referendum on independence.

Late on Tuesday, Catalonia"s chief prosecutor ordered the force to seal off buildings that will house polling stations before Sunday"s referendum which Madrid has declared illegal.

 

But such a step "could lead to undesirable consequences," the Mossos d"Esquadra warned in a posting on Twitter on Wednesday.

 

"These consequences refer to public security and to the more than foreseeable risk of a disruption of public order that this may generate."

 

The prosecutor also ordered police to deploy officers on the day of the ballot to prevent people from voting.

 

The order puts intense pressure on the regional police who are caught between their loyalty to local Catalan leaders who are pushing ahead with the referendum and their pledge to uphold the law.

Ignacio Gonzalez, a spokesman for Judges for Democracy, said it was "feasible" for police to seal polling stations.

"The problem is the unrest that this could cause," he told AFP.

Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria accused Catalan separatists of seeking to end "the years of democratic stability for which our parents fought".

"We are perhaps living in an unprecedented historical moment because of the determination of certain separatists to deny centuries of shared history between Spaniards," she told parliament.

Madrid"s opposition to the Catalan independence referendum drew a sharp rebuke from the Basque separatist group ETA, which released a statement accusing the state of being "a prison for the people".

As The FT concludes, few observers are expecting Catalonia to actually become independent even if, as expected, the “yes” side wins on Sunday, with a more likely outcome seen to be an increase in autonomy for the region.

Still, Ms Wijffelaars suggested “the negotiation period is set to take a long time and with the ultimate risk of unilaterally declared independence, uncertainty will linger in markets”.

Analysts at Citi agreed that uncertainty is unlikely to go away, noting that “the risk of even larger confrontations between the two sides post-referendum is rising”:

In the long-run …solving the Catalan challenge may require more fiscal autonomy for the region and possibly allowing a formal self-determination referendum. With both overwhelmingly opposed by the rest of the country, we fear a solution remains years away.

To Prevent Rebellion, Spain Docks Cruise Ship Housing 16,000 Riot Police In Barcelona Port

Efforts by Madrid to stop a Catalonia independence vote, currently slated for October 1st, seem to be growing more hostile by the day.  Earlier this week Spanish police seized control of Catalonia’s finances, seeking to ensure that separatist politicians could not spend further public funds on the referendum, and conducted raids across Catalonia to confiscate ballots and campaign materials from printing shops and delivery companies.

Now, as the New York Times notes this morning, Spanish police have detained 14 people during operations conducted yesterday which included the secretary general of economic affairs, Josep Maria Jové.

The Spanish police detained more than a dozen people in the region of Catalonia on Wednesday, drastically escalating tensions between the national government and Catalan separatists. The episode occurred less than two weeks before a highly contentious referendum on independence that the government in Madrid has vowed to block.

The police raided the offices of the Catalan regional government early Wednesday and arrested at least 14 people, including Josep Maria Jové, secretary general of economic affairs. The arrests were not expected, but hundreds of mayors and other officials in Catalonia had been warned that they would be indicted if they helped organize a referendum in violation of Spanish law.

Hundreds of supporters of Catalan independence immediately took to the streets of Barcelona to protest the arrests. Jordi Sanchez, the leader of one of the region’s biggest separatist associations, used Twitter to urge Catalans to “resist peacefully,” but also to “come out and defend our institutions.”

According to Reuters, the increasingly hostile crackdown by the Spanish police has led Catalan leaders to acknowledge for the first time today that plans to hold a referendum on independence are now in doubt following the arrest of senior regional officials and the seizure of campaign material by national police.

“It is obvious that we won’t be able to vote as we would have liked,” Oriol Junqueras, deputy head and economy minister of the regional government, told local television TV3. “They have altered the rules.”

It was the first time the promoters of the referendum had acknowledged their plans were in doubt, although Junqueras said he said he was convinced voters would still turn out in numbers.

It is not yet clear whether the police operation would be enough to prevent the vote overall or if it could instead bring fresh momentum to the secession campaign.

Polls show about 40 percent of Catalans support independence although a majority want a referendum on the issue.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain

Meanwhile, as a sign of the growing hostility and Madrid"s intentions to do all that is necessary to block a vote, Bloomberg notes that Spain has hired cruise liners specifically to mount a massive force of 16,000 police in a Catalan port.

Spain has discreetly hired ferries to be moored in the Port of Barcelona as temporary housing for possibly thousands of police specially deployed to keep order in rebel Catalonia and help suppress an illegal independence referendum.

The country’s interior ministry asked Catalan port authorities to provide a berth for one ship until Oct. 3 -- two days after the planned vote -- saying it was a matter of state, a spokeswoman for the port said by phone Wednesday. The vessel, known as “Rhapsody,” docked in the city about 9:30 a.m. Thursday, she said.

The aim is to amass more than 16,000 riot police and other security officers by the Oct. 1 referendum, El Correo newspaper reported on its website. That would exceed the number of Catalan police, the Mossos d’Esquadra, who serve both the Catalan and central governments.

the Rhapsody of the Sea cruise ship.

Still, the Catalan government says it can hold the vote, and recently announced that it had stored about 6,000 ballot boxes in a secret location. “The referendum will be held and is already organized,” Mr. Romeva said. “Clearly the conditions in which it will be celebrated are not those that we wished for.”

Separatist leaders, however, have accused Mr. Rajoy of plunging Catalonia into a state of emergency rather than negotiating the terms of a referendum.

“The issue that is at stake today isn’t the independence — or not — of Catalonia,” Raül Romeva, Catalonia’s foreign affairs chief, told a group of foreign correspondents in Madrid on Wednesday, “but democracy in Spain and the European Union.”

Mr. Romeva said that Catalonia would hold the referendum as planned, and that Catalan lawmakers would act to honor the result within 48 hours — meaning they would declare independence unilaterally if people voted for it.

“There is no alternative, absolutely no alternative,” he said. “There are only two projects now on the table: a democratic project or repression.”

Now,why do we have a feeling that placing a riot police force of 16,000 in a Catalan port, ready to pounce at a moment"s notice, will not help reduce the local push for independence... 

Catalan Independence Vote October 1: Why? What's At Stake? What Do The Polls Suggest?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Unless the central government in Madrid forcibly stops elections, the Catalan Independence Vote will take place on October 1.

Politico covers What Spain has to Lose from Catalan Independence.

Catalonia Percent of Spain

Voting Intentions

Poll Source in Spanish: Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) June 2017

2015 Advisory Voting Map

Why?

Please consider Why some Catalans want to break away from Spain.

Research from CEO (above link), as translated by Politico

• Increased autonomy (26 percent)


• Belief that Catalonia would improve if it struck out on its own (23 percent)


• Desire for a new model for running a country (19 percent)

“I want a fair country, a more social and leftist country, and I believe the best way to achieve that is leaving Spain,” said Marc Becat, a 22-year-old who works in sales.

“All the money and all the taxes that flow to the Spanish government will stay in [an independent] Catalonia,” said Ana Martí Benavente, a 78-year-old Barcelona pensioner.

“It’s the Popular Party above all things, I hate them, that’s it,” said Alex Fores, a 21-year-old engineering student. “They’re very right-wing and obviously if you look at what people vote here [in Catalonia] it’s a completely different ideology.”

“What we Catalans find surprising is how the international community doesn’t react to the fact that we’re being prevented from voting” - Marta Alsina, teacher.

March in Barcelona

Pro-Independence Flag Face

Spain Threatens to Arrest Mayors in Favour of Vote

The Express reports Spain Threatens to Arrest Mayors in Favour of Vote.

Aljazeera reports Spain Summons Catalan Mayors Over Independence Vote.

Spain’s state prosecutor has ordered a criminal probe of all 700-plus Catalan mayors who have backed an independence referendum, as Madrid seeks to block the separatist vote it deems illegal.

The country’s prosecutor office on Wednesday ordered the 712 mayors, who have agreed to help stage the October 1 vote, to be summoned to court as official suspects and called for their arrest in case of a refusal to appear for questioning.

Barcelona Mayor Ana Colau, who opposes secession but supports a vote, says she wants to help arrange the referendum but won’t do so without assurances that she and her staff would be acting legally.

Spain’s King Felipe VI also entered the fray on Wednesday, stepping up the pressure on Catalonia by vowing that the Spanish constitution “will prevail” over any attempt to break the country apart.

In his first comments on the growing political crisis, Felipe said the rights of all Spaniards will be upheld against “whoever steps outside constitutional and statutory law.”

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of Barcelona this week to show support for independence.

Opinion polls show that Catalans are evenly divided on independence, but over 70 percent want a referendum to take place to settle the matter.

One Million March

The Guardian reports One Million Catalans March for Independence on Region’s National Day

Up to a million Catalans have gathered in Barcelona to call for independence less than three weeks before the region is due to hold a vote on whether to break away from Spain.

For the sixth successive year, Catalonia’s national day – La Diada de Catalunya – was used as a political rally by the pro-independence movement. Organisers said 450,000 people had registered for the event, and Barcelona police later tweeted that 1 million turned up.

Polls also show that Catalans are divided on whether they wish to secede from Spain. A survey at the end of July found that 49.4% of Catalans were against independence and 41.1% supported it.

Raül Romeva, the Catalan foreign affairs minister, told reporters that the referendum had already begun, with expatriate Catalans voting by post.

“You need to remember that people are already voting,” he said. “The Catalan community abroad is already voting. Those people who say there’ll be no referendum forget that the referendum is already under way.”

Ballot Papers to Be Seized

The BBC reports Ballot Papers for Banned Referendum to be Seized.

Catalonia’s public prosecutor has ordered the seizure of all ballot papers ahead of a banned independence referendum deemed illegal. The vote on breaking away from Spain, planned for 1 October, has been suspended by the constitutional court.

But Catalonia’s pro-independence government says it will still go ahead. As a result, the Public Prosecutor’s Office instructed security forces to take everything which could help with the “consummation of the crime”.

The order came as Spanish tennis champion Rafael Nadal came out strongly against the plans. “You can’t skip the laws because you want to skip them,” Nadal told a paper.

Rajoy’s Political Mistakes

Prime minister Rajoy is telling Catalonians not to vote because it is illegal.

I strongly suspect the people most likely to stay away from the polls on that message are those who do not favor independence.

Rajoy also made mistakes leading up to the current referendum.

In 2006, with agreement from the Spanish Parliament and approved by a majority in a referendum a statute on Catalonia was approved.

In 2010, Rajoy asked the constitutional court to overturn the law. It did. 14 articles were abolished and 27 will be reinterpreted governing Language, judiciary, taxes and self-recognition as a ‘nation’.

This inflamed Catalonia and rightly so.

In Favor of an Independent Catalonia

I am in favor of an independent Catalonia if that is how the citizens vote.

I seem to recall how citizens of one country decided to skip the law because they did not like it. The protest worked out pretty well.

I am talking of course about the Boston Tea Party and subsequent US independence from Britain via the American Revolution.

What’s Spain going to do to stop the referendum? Send in the troops?