Why The Catalan Independence Movement Is Failing

Via GEFIRA,

The Catalan fight for independence is not how conflicts are fought throughout history, let alone how they are won.

Some movements for national independence have succeeded in history, others have not. Presently, it seems that the Catalan bid is destined to fail. Maybe in the future Catalans will change their strategy and achieve their goal, but at the moment of writing the Catalan independence movement can be described as a storm in a teacup.

We therefore looked at what worked in the past and is missing right now, or what clearly is not working.

1. A bad plan to begin with.

Catalan independence is about claiming sovereignty from Madrid, just to immediately relinquish it to Brussels. If this had been decades ago, before the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, maybe it wouldn’t have mattered. Now, especially after the Brexit vote, the EU leadership has decided to push forward with the European Federalist project, starting possibly with a Eurozone financial minister as proposed by French President Macron.The latter’s plan also includes a Eurozone budget and that’s where the Catalan plan makes even less sense: part of the resentment towards Madrid is because Catalans do not like regional fiscal transfers towards the rest of Spain. Would they like it if fiscal transfers were towards other European regions via Macron’s proposed Eurozone budget?Many

Catalans also resent the “austerity” imposed by Madrid. Yet it’s not Madrid imposing it, it’s Brussels. Yet Catalans want to dump Madrid because of austerity and then join Brussels?

Why leave a political system because of its unnerving centralism just to join one that is shifting towards centralization, even further from the will of the people?

The EU also does not like referenda.Mainly because it tends to be on the losing side. It lost the ones on the “European Constitution” in 2004 in the Netherlands and France. The Constitution was then pragmatically swapped into “Lisbon’s Treaty” with a number of formal changes, but even that one was rejected in a referendum by the Irish. This time, the EU leadership forced a remake, finally succeeding.

More recent examples saw the Greek referendum on austerity in the summer of 2015, where the Greeks rejected the “Troika”, just to be forced into a humiliating surrender; the Dutch referendum on the association treaty with Ukraine, which also rejected the agreement; and the already mentioned one in the UK on the European Union membership. The EU’s track record in referenda is poor at best, thus it’s no surprise that EU leaders distrust direct democracy. Indeed, the European Commission through the agency of its President Juncker, refused to support the Catalan bid,fearing an opening of Pandora’s box and further political fragmentation, that would allow anyone to leave political systems (including the EU) at will. One Brexit was enough.

The EU can’t also let Catalonia go without incurring needless risks; nor can Spain. As we explained previously, Catalan independence could spark a second Eurozone debt crisis.

Catalan nationalists chose to overlook the centralist, pro-austerity and anti-direct democracy nature of the current European Union. A bit too much to be ignored.

2. Inconclusive leadership.

The now former Catalan President Puigdemont is a champion of missing opportunities. If there ever was a chance to succeed, it was right after the referendum, regardless of its democratic credibility, when the moral was high and there was a momentum of political support. Puigdemont flinched. His first speech after the referendum left many supporters confused. He then signed a declaration of independence, just to suspend it within seconds.

Can anyone imagine the Founding Fathers of the United States of America doing the same? Or the Greek ones after the war with the Ottoman Empire?

When Puigdemont finally decided to go forward, it was too late. He had missed his date with history. There might not be another one.

3. Gun-free society.

American supporters of the Second Amendment will love this one. It is not necessarily an endorsement, but a historical observation. The former claim to fight against centralism just like their ancestors fought against the King of England. Catalans want to fight against Castilian centralism and the King of Spain (independent Catalonia would be a republic).

The irony is that a sizeable portion of Catalan nationalists within the Catalan parliament are left-of-the-centre progressives.We wonder thus if Catalan progressives now feel that the US Second Amendment is still a “relic of the past” and similarly shun the need for a “well regulated militia” against an oppressive government, like American progressives do.

Looking at historical precedents, why are the French still celebrating the “Bastille Day” as a symbol of their revolution? The fortress didn’t serve only as a prison, it was also an armory.

Catalonia also lacks its own army, while it can rely on its own police force, the “Mossos d’Esquarda”. Not enough to stop the Spanish forces to regain control of the situation with ease.

4. Lack of international recognition or foreign support.

We once again look at past examples: the French fought on the side of the American revolutionaries against the British; the British and the Russians fought on the side of the Greek in 1821. More recent examples, the US backed Slovenia, Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo and Montenegro in the successive splits from Serbia-dominated Yugoslavia. Similarly the US is backing the Kurdish ambition in Syria, while the Russians backed the Crimeans in their secession from Ukraine.

No one backed Catalonia. Nor has anyone so far recognized its independence. Foreign backing generally comes from powers interested in destabilizing the country facing a secessionist movement. No one seems to be interested in destabilizing Spain right now.

Foreign support often provides the weaponry for the insurgents to succeed in overthrowing the oppressors; should a civil war start in Catalonia and should a foreign power start to provide weapons to the Catalan insurgents, the Spanish government could be forced to let Catalonia go or fight an extremely costly war. However, we are not at this point.

Catalans put their faith in the EU, but it was misguided if not plainly delusional as discussed previously.

5. The “snowflake” generation.

Mass crowd rallies waving flags can be inspiring. They can also be hard to control once in movement. Not every crowd is the same, though. Waving flags does not make you independent. Not even the unilateral declaration of independence makes you so. A conditio sine qua non for an aspiring sovereign state is the ability to control its territory and defend it. Catalonia doesn’t seem to be able to do that.

When you look at the crowds of Catalan nationalists, there’s a widespread support among the youth. None of them however did any military service whatsoever. This is a common issue in Western Europe. The last generation that fought a war, the Second World War, is either dead or on its way out. Since then, military service has been progressively abolished. New generations don’t know how to fight.

They also don’t seem to be aware of what exactly they were doing. The Spanish Constitution forbids secession, hence Catalan independence is a rebellion against the constitutional order and as such is being treated by the Spanish government: it’s a revolution. When the Spanish police reacted against the Catalan referendum, Catalan nationalists took it on social media to express their outrage against “fascist Spain”. The disdain seemed to be shared by many Westerners. However, in every other part of the world, and at any other point in history, events of this type would leave dead bodies on the floor, regardless of “fascism”.

We are not inciting violence with this, we are simply making a historical observation.

It seems that the great plan of Catalan nationalists for independence was “Step aside while I make a revolution, otherwise I’m going to call you names. On Twitter. And maybe make a video on Youtube and share it with my friends on Facebook.” That’s it.

While Kurds are fighting Islamic terrorists and brandishing AK-47s in Syria, Catalans are brandishing their Iphones. The former are fighting for independence, the latter look like they are attending a pop concert.

Catalans over-relied on social media outrage to support their cause, just to find out that after a few days, people go back to their lives and lose interest. Nobody lifted a finger in favour of Catalonia. Not even Catalans themselves. It might be that the region is still wealthy despite some problems, hence a civil war would result in more material loss than the Catalans are ready to put up with for the prize of independence. This is not how revolutions are done.

Watch Live: Catalan's Puigdemont Due To Address Parliament After Delay

Live Feed (due to start at 1pm ET):

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Update (12:00pm ET): La Vanguardia reports that a last-minute meeting delayed the beginning of the plenary session in which Puidemont could declare independence by one hour.

• CUP Group Says Catalan Republic Must Be Proclaimed Today

As The Spain Report reports, there are three rumours being "reported" for sudden Puigdemont delay:

1. CUP isn"t buying text - Perhaps of most concern is that the pro-independence group known as CUP rejects text of speech Catalan President Carles Puigdemont was set to give, news website Independiente reports.

2. International mediation - Govt Spokesman Says International Mediators Contacted Catalans, but remember what Deputy Prime Minister Saenz de Santamaria said earlier: no mediation between "the law and disobedience, democracy and tyranny."

3. PP petition - two opposition parties are asking for the whole session to be suspended, Europa Press says

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The moment of truth (perhaps) is here for Catalonia. The region’s president, Carles Puigdemont, faces immediate arrest if he goes too far down the path of independence, is due to address the Catalan parliament at 6 p.m. (12pmET) in Barcelona on the outcome of an Oct. 1 referendum ruled illegal by the Constitutional Court

The stage is set...

Catalan Parliament tweets photo: "Everything ready in the chamber for appearance by Catalan First Minister".pic.twitter.com/gtdbCu9eOZ

— The Spain Report (@thespainreport) October 10, 2017

European Council president Donald Tusk has urged Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont not to “announce a decision that would make dialogue impossible” in an impassioned speech at the European Committee of the Regions, calling for dialogue with the Spanish government. Tusk said he was speaking “as an ethnic minority” and “as a man who knows what it feels like what it is to be hit by a police baton.”

I appeal to @KRLS not to announce a decision that would make dialogue impossible. Let"s always look for what unites us. United in diversity.

— Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) October 10, 2017

As we noted earlier, the size and reach of the Spanish state"s response to any declaration of independence is unknown: the options range from criminal charges of sedition or rebellion, through the suspension of home rule in Catalonia for an unspecified period of time and even to articles of the Spanish Constitution that allow for the declaration of a state of alarm or exception.

Given the policing shortcomings of the past 10 days, any move to arrest Mr. Puigdemont and members of his regional government would be fraught with potential difficulties.

The Catalan Police, the Mossos, have closed parliament park, the Parc de la Ciutadella, in central Barcelona, erected metal barriers around the parliament building and parked several dozen police vans outside.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC), Omnium Cultural and local separatist groups are busy organising untold thousands of supporters to travel to the park and the area outside the High Court, in the adjacent road.

Pro-independence tractors have once again arrived in Barcelona...

As we noted yesterday, Catalonia has declared independence once before. On 6 October 1934, the president of the Generalitat, Lluís Companys, proclaimed a Catalan state, but it did not end well. The move was quickly crushed by the government. Companys was arrested, tried and sentenced to 30 years in prison for rebellion, the autonomous government was suspended and virtually all its members were jailed.

Released after the Popular Front’s victory in Spain’s 1936 elections, he went into exile in France during the Spanish Civil War but was eventually handed over by the Nazis to the Franco regime, tried before a war council and executed in 15 October 1940. A spokesman for Spain’s ruling People’s Party (PP) this week invoked Companys’ memory Pablo Casada warned ominously (and not very diplomatically):

We hope they don’t declare anything tomorrow, because anyone doing so might end up like him 83 years ago, in prison.

Local risk markets are starting to worry with Spanish stocks slumping (closed now) ahead of tonight"s announcement...

And, courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a flowchart laying out the various possible events in Spain over the next 24 hours.

As The Guardian"s Jon Henly details, one of the options the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, could consider is the so-called “Slovenian option” – essentially, a symbolic declaration of independence with the effect delayed by several months, allowing time for international mediation aimed at convincing Madrid to negotiate a later, legally guaranteed referendum.

The term derives from the Brioni Agreement, signed on 7 July 1991 by the representatives of Slovenia, Croatia and Yugoslavia with the mediation of what was then the European Community. Aimed at creating an environment for further talks on Yugoslavia’s future, it put a stop to hostilities between Yugoslavia and Slovenia and ultimately ended Belgrade’s influence over Ljublana.

Under the agreement, Slovenia – which had declared independence two weeks previously – agreed to suspend all practical steps towards self-rule for three months, while Yugoslavia pulled its troops out. The deal also fixed rules for border and customs controls on Slovenia’s borders and resolved air traffic control problems.

International lawyers have said a similar approach by Catalonia could have political if not legal advantages, effectively buying the regional government time and allowing it not to disappoint two million voters while recognising that independence is not immediately feasible in the current circumstances.

“So you say, ’We’re not giving up, we’re continuing forward, but we’re appealing to the international community to act as a mediator and convince the Spanish state to agree to a referendum with legal guarantees,’” Joan Vintró, lawyer and lecturer on constitutional law at the University of Barcelona, told The Local.

“It’s a way of not renouncing your objective while creating waiting time, within the margin of which you can negotiate on different fronts to either make independence effective from a certain time, or to submit to a legally guaranteed referendum,” Vintro said.

“This is going to be a historical day regardless of the consequences,” Alejandro Quiroga, professor of Spanish history at the University of Newcastle, England, said by phone.

“The tension has reached such a point that something has to happen and if the Catalan government wants to declare independence, now is the best time, while it’s still got international attention.”

Natixis just dropped the following flowchart to explain their view of the possibility of political crisis in Europe...

The Catalan Chain Reaction

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Oriental Review,

Catalonia’s drive for “independence” has unleashed a chain reaction of viral social media support that’s frighteningly resurrected civil war-era rhetoric, but the most dangerous consequences of this domino effect are yet to come if the separatists are ultimately successful in their quest.

The Nostalgia Narrative

The Catalan “independence” cause has taken the world by storm, thrown into the global spotlight by the heavily publicized referendum earlier this week and Madrid’s forceful response to this unconstitutional measure. Supporters all across the world have been energized by the recent events and have taken to describing them in civil war-era terms as a battle between “democracy” and “fascism”. Furthermore, they also accuse the Rajoy government of being “Francoists”, as they do the country’s post-Franco 1978 Constitution which returned Catalonia’s autonomy in an even more robust way than before and even bestowed this privilege to the rest of the country as well.

Although it can be safely presumed that Spain naturally retained some of the “Francoist” members of its permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) after the death of their movement’s eponymous leader, it’s an exaggeration to refer to the constitution and the present government as “Francoists” in the sense of what the term stereotypically implies. Rather, the improper use of such polarizing civil war-era terms demonstrates that the separatists are trying to capitalize on the revolutionary nostalgia that their domestic and foreign supporters have for reliving the 1936-1939 anarcho-communist experiment via a simulacrum, one which plays out differently depending on their audience.

Two Simulacra

As it relates to the Catalans themselves, this is meant to force them into the false binary choice between “standing with their ancestors against fascism” or “betraying their motherland for the Francoists”. Concerning the foreign supporters of the Catalan separatists, they’re supposed to get riled up and vent their hatred against Madrid and impassioned support for Barcelona all throughout social media, picking up on the cue that they should inaccurately compare modern-day Madrid to post-Maidan Kiev in making the Alt-Media argument that Catalonia has as much of a right to “independence” as Crimea does to its reunification with Russia.

This is a false equivocation, the full debunking of which isn’t the focus of this article however, as it’s important enough in this context to draw attention to the polemical chain reaction that’s being spun by the separatists and their supporters in crafting a self-interested narrative for serving their cause. There are many well-intentioned individuals who are standing behind Barcelona, so it’s not at all to infer that most of them don’t sincerely believe in this interpretation of events, but the point here is just to highlight how Catalonia’s “independence” crusade is exploiting historical memory and revolutionary nostalgia in order to advance its organizers’ argument that the region needs to split from Spain.

Spanish Scenarios

Centralized Crackdown:

While most people might be led to think that the Catalan Crisis is solely between Barcelona and Madrid, the fact is that it actually involves all of Spain and is poised to have geopolitical reverberations throughout the entirety of Europe. Concerning the politically unstable Iberian country, Catalonia’s separatist campaign already crossed the Rubicon of no return after the referendum and Madrid’s reaction to it, so there’s no going back to the previous status quo. This means that only three scenarios are probable: a centralized crackdown, Identity Federalism, and separatism. The first one could see the state implement Article 155 of the constitution in temporarily imposing direct rule over the region, though with the expected consequence being that it might catalyze a low-scale civil war if the Catalans resort to terrorist-insurgent tactics to resist.

Identity Federalism:

The next scenario is Identity Federalism, which would require the revocation or reform of Article 145 in devolving the centralized state into a federation or confederation of regions, each of which could theoretically function as quasi-independent statelets with their own economic, military, and foreign policies. Essentially, this would be the transplantation of the Bosnian model onto Spain, albeit with added privileges given to each constituent member. As with the centralized crackdown scenario, this is likely to lead to violence, and would probably only occur as a “compromise solution” to any prolonged conflict. Madrid does not want to lose control of the country and see the Iberian Peninsula in southwestern Europe “Balkanized” like its namesake counterpart in Southeastern Europe, which is why this outcome probably wouldn’t ever happen in peacetime.

Secessionism:

Finally, the last possibility for how the Catalan Crisis could play out is that the restive region becomes “independent” from Spain and is recognized by at least one country or more, which in all likelihood might end up being some of the Baltic and/or Balkan states before anyone else. Spain wouldn’t be able to survive in its present administrative-political format with the loss of roughly 20% of its GDP, so the rump state would either have to be radically reformed, undergo a “stabilizing” military coup, or fully collapse in a collection of “countries” just like the former Yugoslavia did a generation ago. As for Catalonia, it could become a base for foreign (NATO/Western/American) intervention into what might then descend into a multisided civil war. A weakened Spain or its remnants also wouldn’t be able to defend from an African-originating “Weapons of Mass Migration” tidal wave into Europe, either.

Geopolitical Chain Reactions

Forecasting is never an exact science, but it is indeed an art, and with that being said, there’s no guarantee that any of the aforementioned scenarios will play out, though if they do, they’ll inevitably have very serious geopolitical ramifications which could end up sparking a chain reaction throughout the region and beyond. The centralized crackdown might lead to a civil war that could either be contained to Catalonia or come to engulf other traditionally sovereign-minded areas such as Basque Country or Galicia too, to say nothing of the rest of the country in general. That said, and accepting that the consequences would inevitably spread to at least Portugal and France as well with time, this sequence of events isn’t what’s the most continentally explosive, as it’s the scenarios of Identity Federalism and “independence” that are the most dangerous.

The “Catalan Countries”:

Before going any further, both of these would guarantee that the Catalan Crisis becomes an existential one for Spain. The nominal Kingdom can’t devolve into a federation without changing the constitution, and even if this unlikely event were to happen, then Catalonia might seek to rearrange the country’s internal boundaries in a nationalist bid to gobble up the territory that its most jingoistic supporters claim as constituting the “Catalan countries”. This ultra-extreme concept holds that the modern-day borders of Catalonia don’t represent the historic geo-cultural space of the Catalan people, so they therefore need to be expanded to include all or some of the Spanish regions of Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Valencia, as well as the country of Andorra and the French department of Pyrénées-Orientales (also known as “Roussillon” or “Northern/French Catalonia”).

Most of the people in these areas don’t want to be part of a “Greater Catalonia”, but the hyper-nationalists in charge of the Identity Federalized or “independent” state might resort to subterfuge or force in pressing their claims, even if they don’t do so right away. The concept of the “Catalan countries” is therefore a very dangerous one because it means that the Catalonia issue will inevitably have pronounced internal geopolitical consequences for Spain and also possibly even France as well if the separatists in control of Barcelona right now eventually get their way. Again, the Identity Federalism scenario would likely only result from a war brought about by a centralized crackdown, and would represent a (temporary) “compromise solution” to outright separatism, though with the latent dangers that would come from the latter with time.

Regional Copycats:

European regions allegedly seeking independence from the host states.

Whether it’s Identity Federalism or separatism, either of these outcomes could encourage regional copycats all throughout the EU. The UK “Independent” published a very misleading map just the other day claiming to have pinpointed all of the other Catalan-like political movements in Europe, obviously inferring that they could be next if the Barcelonan separatists are successful. The salient point being made here isn’t that each and every one of them will rise up in Color Revolution-esque fervor just like the Catalans did, but that some of them will undoubtedly be inspired to push forth with their agenda in fracturing their home countries and contributing to the “regionalization of Europe”. Other than the Spanish examples mentioned in the map, this could also see a chain reaction occurring in Scotland, Northern Italy, Germany’s Bavaria, and maybe even parts of France too.

The Hungarian minority that’s been living outside of their nation-state ever since the 1920 Treaty of Trianon might agitate for reunification with their homeland, which could destabilize the politically tenuous situation in Central Europe and the Balkans. It could also make Prime Minister Orban, if he’s still serving by that time, an easy target for liberal-leftist Mainstream Media attacks that he’s the “New Hitler” for wanting to reunify with his compatriots abroad. All that these regional copycats would have to do, regardless of the validity behind their claims and socio-political movements, is to organize highly publicized unconstitutional referenda in order to provoke the state into a forceful response that could in turn “legitimize” a Color Revolution in the said peripheral region. The result doesn’t necessarily have to be separatism, but Identity Federalism, as this end is essentially the same in the structural sense.

“Euro-Federalism”:

The devolution of once-unified states into identity-“federalized” ones de-facto internally partitioned along ethno-regional lines would interestingly promote the cause of “Euro-Federalism” that Gearóid Ó Colmáin described in his latest article titled “Catalan ‘independence’: a tool of capital against labour”. His work builds upon the 1992 proposal by billionaire Europhile Freddy Heineken to “federalize” Europe along regional lines, which was likely the unstated inspiration behind Belgian bureaucrat-academic Luk Van Langenhove’s 2008 policy suggestion urging “Power To The Regions, But Not Yet Farewell To The Nation State”. The bigger picture here is quintessentially one of divide and rule, albeit modified for the EU’s post-Brexit conditions.

The author himself spoke about this in a different context in his summer 2016 article for The Duran about the “Post-Brexit EU: Between Regional Breakdown and Full-Blown Dictatorship”, in which it was postulated that the bloc might devolve into regionally focused state-driven organizations in the future. What’s happening instead is that Brussels might be preparing for a further devolution beyond the member states themselves and to the individual regions within (and sometimes, even between) them. This represents a modification of what the author wrote in his earlier work titled “Identity Federalism: From “E Pluribus Unum” To “E Unum Pluribus”, which appears at this moment to have incorrectly concluded that the EU wouldn’t go forward with this scenario out of fear that it could invite more “Weapons of Mass Migration” from the Global South (in the Spanish case, from Northern and Western Africa), as well as create geostrategic opportunities for Russia and China.

 Standing corrected with the wisdom of hindsight and in light of recent events, especially the insight that the author acquired through his research on Civilizational Aggression, it now seems as though the very same scenario of the EU collapsing into a constellation of regional entities is being partially experimented with by none other than  Brussels itself as the ultimate divide-and-rule stratagem for controlling the bloc in the post-Brexit era. This doesn’t mean that the process will be taken to its extreme –so long as it’s still “controllable” – but just that the EU does indeed seem to be tinkering with this as part of its phased adaptive approach to the emerging Multipolar World Order.

Concluding Thoughts

Catalonia is globally significant because of the chain reaction that its separatists have started in furthering the scenario of a “controlled” devolution-collapse of the EU’s existing member-state order into a more “flexible” hybrid one of politically equal national and regional entities. If Catalonia serves as a successful example, whether in the Identity Federalized or separatist instances, then it could have a powerful demonstration effect elsewhere in the EU by encouraging other copycat movements, thereby redirecting what might have otherwise been semi-multipolar forces into the false allure of “independence” within a de-facto strengthened EU and even NATO.

This is very possible because the Catalan precedent would clearly indicate that no EU member state’s territorial integrity and constitution are safe from the globalist desires of a separatist Color Revolutionary and possibly even Hybrid War vanguard, thereby dealing a heavy blow to the right-wing “sovereignists” (publicly smeared as “nationalists” in the Mainstream Media) who are coming to the fore of European politics nowadays. After all, the so-called “Catalan Question” was supposed to have been settled by the 1978 Constitution that gave the region an even more robust autonomy than it had ever enjoyed before in history, so if this can be reversed, then Pandora’s Box has truly been reopened all across the EU.

Another point to dwell upon is the viralness with which the Catalan separatist cause spread through global Mainstream and Alternative Medias, as this provides crucial insight into how other movements might attain such tremendous soft power in such a short time in the future. It helps if they’re tourist destinations where lots of foreigners have visited and acquired an affinity for the local culture and environs, as well as if there’s a civil war- or other conflict-era history (no matter how distant, decontextualized, and/or irrelevant to the present) that could be spun to “legitimize” the said “federalist”-separatist cause.

Altogether, the Catalan case study in all of its dimensions is very instructive in demonstrating how the declining Unipolar World Order is seeking to adapt to multipolarity, and its state of affairs at any given time provides a decent barometer for gauging the dynamics of this process.

Defying Spanish Defense Ministry's Civil War Threat, Catalans To Hold Debate Monday

Spanish (and European) stocks surged this afternoon as headlines crossed that Catalan separatists were hoping to "stall" proceedings in hope of negotiating with Madrid. That hopeful headline appears to have been crushed now as Bloomberg reports the Catalan regional parliament intends to meet as planned Monday, defying a suspension by Spain’s Constitutional Court.

As Bloomberg reports, Jordi Sanchez, who heads the Catalan National Assembly, said that lawmakers may need to gather in an alternative venue, but that the debate on an illegal referendum on independence from Spain will take place. Sanchez collaborates closely with Regional President Carles Puigdemont and the speaker in the Catalan legislature, Carme Forcadell. He helped organize the vote on Oct. 1.

“There will be some formula for the Catalan Parliament to convene and hold its meeting as planned,” Sanchez said in an interview in Barcelona.

“There will be a plenary session.”

While separatists are split on whether to declare independence next week, they are agreed that they need to hold the session on Monday to sustain the momentum in their campaign - clearly signalling that the "stall" rumor was false.

Additionally, confirming the earlier concerns, Banco Sabadell has decided to move its corporate registered address outside of Catalonia, Europa Press reported, and Reuters reports that Spanish authorities will on Friday approve a decree that makes it easier for companies to transfer their legal base out of Catalonia.

The decree is tailor-made for Spanish lender Caixabank and would allow the bank to change its legal and tax base without having to hold a shareholder’s meeting.

Bank bonds bounced but were unconvinced that this solves the Catalan region"s largest lenders" problems...

However, perhaps most ominously, TheSpainReport.com reports that the Spanish Defense Minister has warned "everything outside of democracy is a threat to our nation."

Spain"s Defence Minister, María Dolores de Cospedal (PP) said on Thursday morning during a conference about women in the Spanish armed forces...

"The state of law has a duty to defend its citizens and therefore the duty to defend liberty and the law, because in a democracy the law is made by all of us."

"Either you are with the law or you are against it."

"With the law in hand, from a position of unity and addition, of institutional respect and with rules we have all given ourselves, we can continue to build a project that has been the most successful one in recent world history."

"The Constitution and our entire body of laws are our ensign but at the same time give us the instruments and means to protect our nation."

"It is in our legislation where all of us, absolutely all of us, are equal. It is precisely the law that makes us equal and avoids the tyranny of a few on the rest."

"That is precisely why no one can ignore it because they are placing themselves not only outside of the law but mean to place themselves above others."

Why is this so ominous?

Simple, Article 8 of the Spanish Constitution states that Spain"s Armed Forces have the "mission of guaranteeing the sovereignty and independence of Spain, of defending her territorial integrity and constitutional order".

In other words - if the Catalans push for secession, thus breaking the "territorial integrity" of the sovereign state, then Spain can send in the military to "fix" the problem.

Defiant Catalans Block Spain's Military Boats From Landing; Spain Seizes ".CAT" Domain

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Spain’s plan to send boatloads of military police to Catalonia to prevent its independence referendum has backfired with dockers in two ports staging a boycott and a third refusing access.

The Express writes Police boats Blocked by Catalan ports as unrest threatens to Rip Spain Apart.

More than 4,000 members of Spain’s Guardia Civil are being dispatched to the troubled region amid concerns over divided loyalties in the autonomous community’s own police force, the Mossos d’ Esquadra.

Spanish authorities wanted to house the Guardia Civil officers on four cruise ships – two in Barcelona, one in Tarragona and another in Palamos.

But as thousands took to the streets to protest against the detention of Catalan officials, local dock workers joined the backlash.

The Assembly of Stevedores of the Port of Barcelona announced that workers would not provide any services to boats carrying security forces, a decision it said was taken “in defence of civil rights”.

Colleagues in Tarragona quickly followed suit and the Catalan government then denied permission to dock in Palamos – which, unlike Barcelona and Tarragona, falls under regional rather than national control.

More than 40,000 people have gathered in Barcelona to protest over the arrests and the intervention of the Spanish government in the Catalan independence vote.

Many of the angry protesters have been waving Catalonia’s red and yellow flag while chanting “We will vote” and “Hello Democracy!”

In a television address, Catalan’s President Carles Puigdemont said: “The Spanish state has by all rights intervened in Catalonia’s government and has established emergency rule.

“We condemn and reject the anti-democratic and totalitarian actions of the Spanish state.”

A spokesman for the Catalan National Assembly said: “They made a big mistake; we wanted to vote and they declared war.”

Catalans are split on the issue of independence but support for a vote is high and few are happy with Spanish police arresting Catalan leaders.

Tensions have been further fuelled by reports that some of those detained are likely to face charges of sedition, which carries a lengthy prison sentence.

Support for a Vote

The Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia (via Mish translation) notes ‘The Times’ joins foreign dailies asking for a referendum for Catalonia.

The Times joins the list foreign newspapers that support a referendum. Le Monde and the New York Times also support a referendum.

In an editorial, The Times, a historic British conservative daily, accuses prime minister Mariano Rajoy of “repression.”

The text of the British newspaper is especially blunt against the reaction of the Spanish state. The editorial maintains that Spain is in a serious “constitutional crisis” with risk of “rupture”, the greatest since “the end of the Franco dictatorship.”

The editorial also accuses Rajoy of “feeding the crisis”. The Times ventures to ask the central government to allow the referendum even if it is contrary to the Spanish Magna Carta.

Spain Seizes “.CAT” Domain

The New York Times reports In Catalonia, Spain Seizes the .Cat Internet Domain

On the same day this week that the Spanish authorities stormed the offices of the Catalan regional government, detaining at least 14 people, a less-noticed raid took place.

The puntCat foundation, which oversees the registry of websites with the “.cat” domain, tweeted Wednesday that its offices had also been raided and that one of its senior executives had been arrested.

Given the web’s rich cat history, you’d think that domain names ending in .cat would be another online feline gold mine. [But] almost all sites with the .cat suffix belong to the Catalan-speaking community thanks to the efforts of the puntCAT (“dot-cat” in Catalan), the foundation approved in 2005 to manage its registry by Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, a global organization. That made it one of the first domain suffixes to explicitly refer to a language and culture, paving the way for others, when it first appeared online in 2006.

In a letter to ICANN, the foundation said that the Spanish authorities had asked it to “block all .cat domain names that may contain any kind of information about the forthcoming independence referendum.”

“We are being requested to censor content and suppress freedom of speech,” the organization added.

The internet naming corporation said, “We are aware of the reports about Fundacio PuntCAT, the registry operator for .CAT, and we continue to monitor the situation.”

We have denounced to @ICANN the disproportionate action of the courts. Committed to freedom on the Internet. pic.twitter.com/NkvTMYJ79d

— Fundació puntCAT (@puntcat) September 17, 2017

Spain digs itself deeper into a hole. Most of those previously undecided will now vote for #catalan independence, and rightfully so.

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) September 22, 2017

The Catalan President says “We Will Vote on Independence Whether Spain Likes it or Not”.

Carles Puigdemont is the 130th president of Catalonia.

What follows is Puigdemont’s message in the Washington Post

After three centuries under Spanish rule, on Oct. 1, citizens of Catalonia will finally have the chance to exercise their right to self-determination. More than 5 million eligible voters will have the right to decide on a simple question: “Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?”

The way to this historic referendum was paved by a majority decision of the Catalonian parliament. In our last regional election in September 2015, pro-independence parties won 47.8 percent of the vote, which gave them an absolute majority of seats. Unionist parties won 39.1 percent of the votes, a clear defeat, while the rest of the votes went to parties that defend the right to self-determination but are not necessarily in favor of independence. So there can be no denying the democratic legitimacy of our current Catalonian government. For this reason, after making several unsuccessful efforts to agree on the terms of the referendum with Spanish President Mariano Rajoy, I initiated the referendum.

In stark contrast to the governments of Canada or Britain, Madrid has refused to accept this democratic challenge, and has opted instead for the path of authoritarian repression. In most parts of the developed world, police protect ballot boxes, polling stations, and voters. In Catalonia today, the situation is the opposite. Spanish security forces are confiscating ballots and ballot boxes, stripping campaign posters from the walls, and intimidating citizens. They have arrested officials of the Catalan government, tapped telephones, raided private residences, and banned political rallies.

It seems incredible that this could happen in Spain in the 21st century. One French journalist recently noted that the Spanish government is acting more like Nicolás Maduro’s Venezuelan dictatorship than a healthy European democracy. And consider the fact that Catalonia, Spain, and other European countries are currently on maximum alert against jihadi terrorism. Instead of working to prevent possible attacks, Spain’s police forces are working to prevent the exercise of democracy. This is profoundly irresponsible.

The Spanish government has also gravely violated the freedom of expression and of information. Not only has it prohibited both public and private media from broadcasting advertisements about the referendum, it has also moved to block Catalan government websites that inform the public about the vote. Madrid has even blocked proxy servers, a procedure employed by only the most totalitarian regimes. The Spanish government not only wants to keep Catalans from voting, but also to prevent them from being informed.

The Spanish government has to understand that its behavior is unacceptable from the point of view of democracy and civil rights. Four decades after the death of the dictator Francisco Franco, we still find that authoritarian instincts rule at the heart of the Madrid government. Respect for minorities is a fundamental human right, and the right of self-determination is an irrevocable right of all nations.

Our commitment to the right of self-determination and to the will of the Catalan people to decide its own future remains unshaken. The repression of the Spanish government will not be able to change that. On Oct. 1, citizens of Catalonia will exercise their right to decide whether they want to become a new independent republic, just like other peoples of the world have done before them. This is the moment of the people of Catalonia, but we are not alone in this fight. We call on democrats around the world to give support to this long struggle between freedom and authoritarianism.

Carles Puigdemont

I support Catalonia Independence and apparently so do most Mish readers.

"Spain Has Been Mistreating Us For Years" - 100s Of Thousands Turn Out For Catalan National Day

Three weeks ahead of the planned October 1st referendum, which threatens to throw the country into chaos, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets across Catalonia on Monday to support a break from Spain.

The FT reports that organisers said that about half a million people signed up to attend the main march in Barcelona, an indication of the strength and commitment of the pro-independence forces.

Reuters reports around one million people rallied for Catalan independence from Spain...

City police said on Twitter that around one million people took part, one of the highest turn-outs in recent years. Protesters said they hoped the vote would go ahead as planned on Oct. 1.

“We hope that we will be able to hold the referendum with total normality, because in a democracy it is normal to be able to vote,” said German Freixas, a 42-year-old engineer accompanying his family to the rally.

“If the people want it to happen, it will go ahead.”

But the desperate Spanish government representative in Barcelona said about 350,000 attended pro-independence rally Monday to mark Catalan national day, vs about 370,000 last year and 520,000 in 2015.

As a reminder, Mike Shedlock recently explained what the push for independence was all about...

1. Tax Collection – Catalonia is the industrial superstate of Spain. Catalonia sends far more to Madrid than it gets back. Secession would cost Spain approximately 20% of tax revenue.


2. Language – Catalan is not a dialect of Spanish, but a language that developed independently out of the vulgar Latin spoken by the Romans who colonized the Tarragona area. It is spoken by 9 million people in Catalonia, Valencia, the Balearic Isles, Andorra and the town of Alghero in Sardinia. Since the early 1980s, the imposition of a system known as “immersion,” with Catalan as the only vehicular language in state schools, has guaranteed everyone educated in the past 30 years has a command of it. However, thanks to the presence of Spanish in daily life and the media, virtually all Catalans are perfectly bilingual.


3. History – Dating back to 1150 and 1707 Catalonia was not part of Spain. Numerous kings tried with no success to end the Catalan language. Those attempts ended in 1931. The Telegraph has a nice historical perspective on Why Catalonia wants independence from Spain.

The head of Catalonia’s regional government, Carles Puigdemont, told journalists on Monday:

“It’s not an option that the referendum won’t go ahead. It’s 20 days away and we’ve already overcome many hurdles.”

The FT notes that Spain’s state prosecutor has already launched legal action against members of the Catalan parliament for their involvement in the vote, asking judges to look into abuse of power and embezzlement charges. Spain’s central government has written to Catalonia’s 947 mayors warning them that their legal duty is to impede the vote.

However, a majority of Catalonia’s mayors have so far said they will allow the use of municipal facilities for the vote.

The mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, said on Monday she would do everything possible to allow people to vote but would not put civil servants’ jobs at risk.

On the streets of Barcelona on Monday, 57-year-old singer Miquel Pujadó said independence was the best way to protect Catalan culture and improve the lives of its citizens.

“For me and most people here, independence is the only way for our economy, culture and language to thrive,” he said. “Spain has repeatedly showed it is not interested in these things.”

Carmen Rodríguez, a 41-year-old teacher, said:

“Spain has been mistreating us for years and years. This is the moment for us to show our support for independence, for us to shake free from Spain.”