Showing posts with label Business career of Donald Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business career of Donald Trump. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Trump Dissolves Charitable Foundation (As Promised)

Fulfilling a promise he made in December 2016, NBC News reports that President Trump is in the process of dissolving his charitable foundation, which admitted last year that it violated federal rules on "self-dealing."



As we noted in December, the foundation, which has been the subject of several controversies and investigations, was originally set up to give away the proceeds from Trump"s bestselling book, "The Art of the Deal." As The Hill writes, the book"s co-writer, Tony Schwartz, told CBS News he has received $1.6 million in royalties, per a 50-50 split agreement with Trump. A Washington Post investigation in June found that Trump had personally given his foundation $2.8 million of the book"s proceeds over the past 15 years, and nothing since 2009.


The foundation itself has given more than $13 million to charity since it was founded, but only $4.9 million has come from Trump himself, according to the CBS report.


"I am very proud of the money that has been raised for many organizations in need, and I am also very proud of the fact that the Foundation has operated at essentially no cost for decades, with 100% of the money going to charity," Trump said Saturday.


 


"But because I will be devoting so much time and energy to the Presidency and solving the many problems facing our country and the world, I don’t want to allow good work to be associated with a possible conflict of interest," he added.


 


"The Foundation has done enormous good works over the years in contributing millions of dollars to countless worthy groups, including supporting veterans, law enforcement officers and children," Trump said in a statement.


 


"However, to avoid even the appearance of any conflict with my role as President I have decided to continue to pursue my strong interest in philanthropy in other ways," he added.



NBC News reports that at the end of 2016, the foundation had assets of about $970,000, and in its previous tax filing in 2015, the foundation acknowledged violating a legal prohibition against a "self-dealing" rule barring nonprofit leaders from funneling their charity"s money to themselves, their businesses or their families.


New York"s attorney general ordered the foundation to stop soliciting contributions in October 2016.


And now, NBC News reports that according to newly filed documents, the foundation is is in the process of dissolving... just as President Trump had said he would.









Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Democrats Now Concerned Trump Is Colluding With China

After trying (and so far failing) for a year to prove that President Trump and/or members of his campaign team colluded with Russia to throw the 2016 election, Democrats have now decided to pivot to a slightly tweaked new narrative which suggests the President may actually be colluding with China instead. 


As the Washington Examiner points out today, just as Trump gets set for meetings in China tomorrow, Senator Richard Blumenthal has suddenly taken a new interest in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China which rents commercial space in Trump Tower.








In a call with reporters, Blumenthal said a Chinese bank renting space at Trump Tower in New York is illegal without congressional permission and may be influencing Trump"s policy decisions.


 


“To be really blunt, an arm of the Chinese government is paying President Trump rent for his building, and last year as you all know China granted President Trump 40 trademarks,” the Connecticut Democrat said on a conference call.


 


“These approvals of trademarks closely followed the president’s abrupt decision as president to honor the One-China Policy, a reversal of his earlier position," he said. "Shortly after receiving those trademark registrations, President Trump flip-flopped on labeling China a currency manipulator.”


 


“As he travels to China, we’re left wondering, Americans are left wondering if President Trump is representing American interests or his own, and which he’s going to put first," he said.



Blumenthal


Ironically, while Senator Blumenthal was all too happy to speculate wildly about Trump Tower leases, he was somewhat less eager to answer questions about China"s "People"s Daily" newspaper which leases space in the Empire State Building, a building which his wife"s family manages.








But Blumenthal did not mention on the call that the People’s Daily newspaper is a tenant in the Empire State Building, which his wife’s family manages. He departed the call before a question and answer period with legal experts.


 


A moderator on the Constitutional Accountability Center-hosted call would not allow the experts to address whether Blumenthal is himself violating the clause. “The focus of this call is on the president and the lawsuit against him for his patent violations of the Foreign Emoluments Clause," the moderator said.


 


Blumenthal’s office previously said he does not personally own a stake in the Empire State Building, and that such holdings listed on his annual Senate financial disclosure forms belong to his wife.


 


But Michael Stern, senior counsel to the U.S. House of Representatives from 1996 to 2004, told the Washington Examiner that under Blumenthal"s logic, "President Trump could avoid any Foreign Emoluments Clause problem simply by transferring his financial interests into the names of his wife or children."



As laid out by Trump"s attorney, Sheri Dillon of Morgan Lewis, back in January, his roughly 500 business entities were placed into a trust to be run by Eric, Don Jr. and Trump"s current CFO Allen Weisselberg who were granted decision-making power over day-to-day operations without consulting the President.  Moreover, the trusts strictly forbid entering into new international business arrangements while new domestic arrangements have to be approved by an "independent ethics officer".








Trump’s businesses, which include more than 500 companies with $3.6 billion in assets and ties to more than 20 countries, will be placed into a trust. The trust will be overseen by an independent ethics officer and managed by Trump’s sons Eric and Don Jr., and chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg, who will make decisions without consulting the president. The Trump Organization will terminate all pending partnerships, and won’t enter into new international business arrangements, such as licensing deals for new hotels, while Trump remains in the White House.


 


Existing Trump businesses, which include hotels and golf courses, will continue to operate and enter into new agreements, such as hosting weddings, parties and other events. Those will be reviewed by the ethics officer to ensure they are conducted at arms’ length. Trump’s debts will be paid down, according to their schedules.


 


“President-elect Trump should not be expected to destroy the company that he built,” Dillon said.



Of course, this "scandal" could be easily solved via a quick review of the Bank of China lease at Trump Tower to make sure the rent is market based...but that"s not really the point now is it?









Monday, October 16, 2017

"There Are Just Too Many Things Wrong With The Country!" - How Trump Handled The '87 Crash

Thirty years ago this week, the stock market took a massive nosedive, a crash that came to be known as Black Monday. Many investors were destroyed by this one day"s collapse, but, as we noted earlier, some survived (and even fewer thrived).


A few investors said they predicted the crash, including one familiar name: Donald Trump.


While now-President Trump is crowing about the surging stock market almost every day (for instance today)...



The Wall Street Journal reported at the time that the real estate executive said he sold all his stocks before the market tanked. He wasn’t too optimistic about a rebound in stock prices.


Why?





“There are just too many things wrong with the country,” he said.



It would take 15 months for the Dow to return to its Oct. 16 level.





They told you so!



Some investors predicted the end of the bull market before the past week"s collapse, or sold off big positions within the past few months.



They include real-estate tycoon Donald Trump, corporate raider Asher Edelman, and private investor Jim Rogers.



In interviews yesterday, few of these investors were forecasting a quick turn-around.



"I sold all my stock over the last month," said Mr. Trump. "The timing was no different than the Grand Hyatt - what do you think of it?" The Grand Hyatt was a successful hotel project Mr. Trump undertook in Manhattan in the late 1970s at the tail end of New York City"s fiscal crisis.



One market source says Mr. Trump made about $175 million during the stock market"s move up, partly by playing such takeover targets as Allegis Corp. and Holiday Corp., but has sold most of his $500 million portfolio.



"I think the market is going to go down further." he said, because "there are just too many things wrong with the country."



Referring to the current U.S. trade deficit, Mr. Trump explained, "The U.S. cannot afford to lose $200 billion a year while Japan and Saudi Arabia are making tremendous profits and the U.S. is paying totally for their defense."



Mr. Trump said it"s more difficult for the U.S. to close the trade deficit because it doesn"t have free trade with Japan.



Full WSJ story below...



That was 30 years ago - Trump"s concerns about trade deficits and "things wrong with the country" ring a very familiar bell.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Nomi Prins: The White House As Donald Trump's New Casino

Authored by Nomi Prins via TomDispatch.com,


During the 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly emphasized that our country was run terribly and needed a businessman at its helm. Upon winning the White House, he insisted that the problem had been solved, adding, “In theory, I could run my business perfectly and then run the country perfectly. There"s never been a case like this.”


Sure enough, while Hillary Clinton spent her time excoriating her opponent for not releasing his tax returns, Americans ultimately embraced the candidate who had proudly and openly dodged their exposure. And why not? It’s in the American ethos to disdain “the man” -- especially the taxman. In an election turned reality TV show, who could resist watching a larger-than-life conman who had taken money from the government?


Now, give him credit. As president, The Donald has done just what he promised the American people he would do: run the country like he ran his businesses. At one point, he even displayed confusion about distinguishing between them when he said of the United States: “We’re a very powerful company -- country.”



Of course, as Hillary Clinton rarely bothered to point out, he ran many of them using excess debt, deception, and distraction, while a number of the ones he guided personally (as opposed to just licensing them the use of his name) -- including his five Atlantic City casinos, his airline, and a mortgage company -- he ran into the ground and then ditched. He escaped relatively unscathed financially, while his investors and countless workers and small businesses to whom he owed money were left holding the bag. We may never fully know what lurks deep within those tax returns of his, but we already know that they were “creative” in nature. As he likes to put it, not paying taxes “makes me smart.”


To complete the analogy Trump made during the election campaign, he’s running the country on the very same instincts he used with those businesses and undoubtedly with just the same sense of self-protectiveness. Take the corporate tax policy he advocates that’s being promoted by his bank-raider turned Treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin. It’s focused on lowering the tax rate for multinational corporations from 35% to 15%, further aiding the profitability of companies that already routinely squirrel away profits and hide losses in the crevices of tax havens far removed from public disclosure.


We, as citizens, already bear the brunt of 89% of U.S. tax revenues today. If adopted, the new tax structure would simply throw yet more of the government’s bill in our laps. Against this backdrop, the math of middle-class tax relief doesn’t work out -- not unless you were to cut $4.3 trillion from the overall budget for just the kinds of items non-billionaires count on like Medicaid, education, housing assistance, and job training.


 Or put another way, Trump’s West Wing is now advocating the very policy he railed against in the election campaign when he was still championing the everyday man. By promoting tax reform for mega-corporations and the moguls who run them, he’s neglecting the “forgotten” white working class that sent him to the Oval Office to “drain the swamp.”


Since entering the White House, he’s also begun to isolate our country from the global economy, essentially pushing other nations to engage in more trade with each other, not the United States. Whether physically shoving aside the leader of Montenegro, engaging in tweet-storms with the President of Mexico over his “big, fat, beautiful wall,” or hanging up on the prime minister of Australia, Trump has seemingly forgotten that diplomacy and trade matter to the actual American economy. His version of “America First” has taken aim at immigrants, multinational trade agreements, regulations, and the U.N. Calvin Coolidge acted in a somewhat similar (if far less flamboyant) manner and you remember where that led: to the devastating crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s.


What’s In a Shell?


As a new report by Public Citizen makes clear, the glimpses we’ve gotten of inner Trumpworld from the president’s limited financial disclosures indicate that his business dealings, by design, couldn’t be more complex, shadowy, or filled with corporate subterfuge.  He excels, among other things, at using shell companies to hide the Trump Organization’s profits (and losses) in the corporate labyrinth that makes up his empire. And even though the supposedly blind trust run by his sons is designed to shield him from that imperial entity"s decision-making, it still potentially allows him maneuver room to increase his own fortune and glean profits along the way.


So, what’s in such a shell? The answer: another shell, a company that usually has no employees, no offices, and no traceable capital.  Think of such entities as financial gargoyles. They offer no real benefits to the economy, create no jobs, and do nothing to make America great again. However, they have the potential to do a great deal for the bottom lines of Donald Trump and his offspring.  


Think of the corporate shell game he’s been engaged in as his oyster.  After all, anonymous buyers now make up the majority of those gobbling up pieces of his empire. Two years prior to his presidential victory, only 4% of the companies affiliated with people buying his properties were limited-liability, or LLC corporations, which are secretive in nature. Following his victory, that number jumped to 70%.


What that means in plain English is that there’s simply no way of knowing who most of those investing in Trump properties actually are, what countries they come from, how they made their fortunes, or whether there might be any conflicts between their buy-ins to Trumpworld and the national interest of this country.


Trump Lawsuits Meet Pennsylvania Avenue


Secret as so many of his dealings may be, there’s a very public aspect to them that Donald Trump has brought directly into the White House: his pattern of being sued. He’s already been sued 134 times in federal court since he assumed the presidency. (Barack Obama had 26 suits against him and George W. Bush seven at the same moment in their presidencies.)


In other words, one of the nation’s most litigious billionaires is in the process of becoming its most litigious president. A pre-election analysis in USA Today found that Trump and his businesses had been “involved in at least 3,500 legal actions in federal and state courts” over the previous three decades. That volume of lawsuits was unprecedented for a presidential candidate, let alone a president.


It’s fair to say that the public will, in one fashion or another, bear some of the expenses from such lawsuits, as it will, of course, from a lengthening list of ongoing federal investigations, including those into Trump’s business dealings with wealthy Russian businessmen and their various affiliates. According to Public Citizen, Trump formed at least 49 new business entities since announcing his candidacy (including some that were created after he was sworn in as CEO-in-chief). Of those 49, about half were related to projects in foreign countries, including Argentina, India, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia. Since entering the Oval Office, Trump has met with leaders from each of those countries. And while it’s hardly atypical of a President to meet with foreign leaders, in this case there can be little doubt that national policy overlaps with private interests big time.


As Public Citizen concluded, “Although just prior to being inaugurated as president, Trump announced plans to ‘separate’ himself from his business empire, he still maintains ownership in his corporations and merely reshuffled his businesses into holding companies that are held by a trust that is controlled by Trump himself.” It added that he now has an ongoing stake of some sort in more than 500 businesses. Three-quarters of them are legally registered in Delaware, the largest tax-shelter state in the country.  So expect plenty more trouble and suits and investigations to come.


The Era of Golf-plomacy


Trump has always had a knack for promoting his own properties.  Now, however, he gets to do it on our dime. Indeed, we taxpayers fork over a million dollars or more every time the president simply takes a trip to visit his Mar-a-Lago private club in Florida, his National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, or any of his other properties. During his first 241 days in office, he spent 79 days visiting his properties.


Meanwhile, a near-army of his well-connected friends and wannabe friends have been sharpening their golf games at Trump locales. At least 50 executives of companies that bagged sweetheart government contracts, as well as 21 lobbyists and trade group officials, are members of Trump golf courses in Florida, New Jersey, and Virginia. As the president’s son Eric Trump told The New York Times, “I think our brand is the hottest it has ever been.”


They’re not just paying for golf, of course; they’re paying for access. About two-thirds of them “happened” to be golfing during one of those 58 days when Trump, too, was present. It doesn’t take an investigative reporter to show that whatever happens on a Trump golf course undoubtedly does not stay there. And keep in mind that the upkeep of the Trump entourage that travels from D.C. to those clubs with him is at least partially funded by us taxpayers, too.


Trump may tilt isolationist when it comes to countries that don’t put money into his clubs and hotel suites, but the nations that do tend to be in big with him. To take one example, Saudi Arabia, the first stop on his first foreign tour, recently disclosed that it had spent $270,000 for lodgings and food at the new Trump International Hotel just down Pennsylvania Avenue from the White House. Trump’s lawyers have pledged to donate any money foreign governments pay that hotel to the Treasury Department. Yet, so far at least, Treasury’s website has no such line item and the money promised for 2017 has now been pushed into 2018. Keep something else in mind: the Trump family forecast that it would lose about $2 million on that hotel in 2017. So far, it has made nearly a cool $2 million profit there instead.


While gaining unprecedented international coverage for his family-owned, for-profit business locales, Trump has created an ethical boundary problem previously unknown in the history of American governments. After all, we, the people, functionally pay taxes to his business empire to host foreign dignitaries, to feed them and provide appropriate security.  In this context, the president has made a point of having official state visits at his properties, which ensures that we taxpayers get hit for expenses when, say, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stay at Mar-a-Lago. Though the president swore he would cover Abe’s stay, there’s no evidence that it was more than a “fake claim.”


Meanwhile, the Trump brand rolls on abroad.  Though his election campaign took up the banner of isolationism, the Trump Organization didn’t.  Not for a second.  On January 11th, days before placing his hand on the Bible to “defend the Constitution,” Trump proudly noted that he “was offered $2 billion to do a deal in Dubai with a very, very, very amazing man, a great, great developer from the Middle East... And I turned it down. I didn"t have to turn it down because, as you know, I have a no-conflict situation because I"m president... But I don’t want to take advantage of something.”


He also promised that he wouldn’t compromise his office by working privately with foreign entities.  His business empire, however, made no such promises.  And despite his claims, Dubai has turned out to be ripe for a deal.  This August, the Trump Organization announced a new venture there (via Twitter of course): Trump Estates Park Residences. It is to be “a collection of luxury villas with exclusive access to” the already thriving Trump International Golf Course in Dubai, a Trump-branded (though not Trump-owned) part of an ongoing partnership with the Dubai-based real-estate firm DAMAC. Its president, Hussain Sajwani, is well known for his close relationship with the Trump family. Units in the swanky abode are expected to start at about $800,000 each.


Meanwhile, DAMAC gave a $32 million contract to the Middle Eastern subsidiary of the China State Construction Engineering Corporation to build part of Trump World Golf Club, also in Dubai. That’s the same China that Trump regularly chides for not working with us properly. The course is scheduled to open in 2018.


So buckle your seatbelts. U.S. foreign policy and the Trump Organization’s business ventures will remain in a unique and complex relationship with each other in the coming years as the president and his children take the people who elected him for a global ride.


His Real Inner Circle


President Trump has made it abundantly clear that sworn loyalty is the route to staying in his favor. Unwavering dedication to the administration, but also to the Trump Organization, and above all to him is the definition of job security in Washington in 2017. Take the latest addition to his communications team, Hope Hicks, who has rocketed into her new career by making devotion to the Trump brand, including defense of daughter Ivanka, a central facet of her professional life.  The 28-year-old Hicks has now been anointed the new White House communications director.


But she doesn’t have as much job security as one other group: The Donald’s personal legal team.  For make no mistake, Trump’s financial dealings lie at the heart of his presidency, raising conflicts of a sort not seen at least since Warren Harding was president in the 1920s, if ever. And yet, even though they should be secure through at least 2020 and possibly beyond, one little slip about Russia in the wrong D.C. restaurant could see any one of them ushered out the door.


In 2011, the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision rendered corporations people. It erased crucial campaign finance and lobbying restrictions, and elevated billionaires to the top ranks of the American political game. It was a stunning moment -- until now. Donald Trump’s presidency is doing something even more remarkable. The billionaire who became our president has already left Citizens United in a ditch.  He’s created not just a political campaign but a White House in which it’s no longer possible to imagine barriers between lobbying efforts, government decisions, and personal interest, or for that matter profits and policy.


In November, after the election, Trump announced that “the law"s totally on my side, the president can"t have a conflict of interest.” Recently, however, the Sunlight Foundation, a non-profit dedicated to government transparency, revealed 530 active Trumpian conflicts of interest and that’s after only eight months in office.


Theoretically, we still live in a republic, but the question is: Who exactly represents whom in Washington? By now, I think we can take a reasonable guess. When the inevitable conflicts arise and Donald Trump must choose between business and country, between himself and the American people, who do you think will get the pink slip? Who will be paying for the intermeshing of the two? Who, like the investors in his bankrupt casinos, will be left holding the bag? At this point, we’re all in the Washington casino and it sure as hell isn’t going to be Donald Trump who takes the financial hit. After all, the house always wins.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Trump Reports Income Of $594 Million, Net Worth Of At Least $1.1 Billion

Late on Friday, the U.S. Office of Government Ethics released a 98-page financial disclosure form according to which President Trump reported income of at least $594 million for the period from 2016 and through April 2017 and assets worth at least $1.4 billion; he also had personal liabilities of at least $315.6 million to German, U.S. and other lenders as of mid-2017 implying a net worth of just over $1.1 billion. The disclosure form was Trump"s first since taking office.



"President Trump welcomed the opportunity to voluntarily file his personal financial disclosure form," the White House said in a statement, adding that the form was "certified by the Office of Government Ethics pursuant to its normal procedures."


On the income side, the largest component was $115.9 million listed as golf-resort related revenues from Trump National Doral in Miami, down from $132 million a year ago. Income from his other hotels and resorts largely held steady according to Reuters. Revenue from Trump Corporation, his real-estate management company, nearly tripled, to $18 million, and revenue from Mar-a-Lago grew by 25%, to $37.25 million helped perhaps by the doulbing of the club"s initiation fee to $200,000 after Trump"s election.


While royalties for his book "Art of the Deal" at least doubled, revenues for condo sales in his properties decreased. At Trump Park Avenue, for example, condo sales in 2015 totaled $44.3 million. Last year, those sales only reached $29.9 million, a 33% drop.


Trump had roughly $20 million in income from his new marquee Washington hotel, which opened just down the street from the White House last September. The president also earned $11 million from the Miss Universe pageant, after selling the beauty contest back in 2015, while revenue from television shows like "The Apprentice" tumbled to $1.1 million, down from $6 million a year earlier.


The disclosure reflects income of between $2.5 million and $15.5 million from stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Trump sold all of his stocks in June 2016, a spokesman said in December.


In 2015, Trump"s airline — Tag Air — which leases a 757 from one of his businesses, earned $3.7 million in revenue. The next year, it reported earning $7.7 million in revenue and travel reimbursements. Trump used Tag Air to travel during the campaign, according to The Hill. The president also disclosed $10.8 million from two entities affiliated with the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, which he co-owns with entrepreneur Phil Ruffin. The figures, described as development fees and a sponsor fee, are attributed to companies for which the previous disclosures show no income. There has been an uptick in hotel condo purchases at the tower by limited liability corporations during the past year, where Trump and Ruffin still own more than 300 units.


On the liability side, Trump reported debt of at least $130 million to Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, a unit of German-based Deutsche Bank AG. Of this, Trump disclosed a liability to Deutsche exceeding $50 million for the Old Post Office, a historic Washington property where he has opened a hotel. Trump also reported liabilities of at least $110 million to Ladder Capital Corp , a commercial real estate lender with offices in New York, Los Angeles and Boca Raton, Florida. In total, Trump has five liabilities worth $50 million or more, such as the lease on his Washington D.C. hotel.


His assets were reported to exceed $1.4 billion because the disclosure form provided ranges of values. Last May, Trump released a disclosure form that his campaign at the time said showed his net worth was $10 billion, a number many said was overblown. Trump also disclosed three checking and savings accounts holding a total of at least $57 million.


Furthermore, The document showed Trump held officer positions in 565 corporations or other entities before becoming U.S. president. His tenure in most of those posts ended on Jan. 19, the day before his inauguration, and in others in 2015 and 2016. According to a Reuters breakdown, most of the entities involved were based in the United States, with a handful in Scotland, Ireland, Canada, Brazil, Bermuda and elsewhere.


Meanwhile, Trump has refused to release his tax returns, which would give a much clearer indication of his wealth and business interests; they would likely also indicate his extensive use of NOLs to minimize his tax liability. Trump has, however, submitted federal forms disclosing the ranges of his and his family"s income, assets and liabilities.


The full filing is below (pdf link):

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

London Mayor Responds To Trump, Says UK Government Should Cancel His Visit

President Trump"s repeated jabs...




at London Mayor Sadiq Khan drew responses from various UK politicians today, but until now Khan had calmly responded he "has better and more important things to focus on than" to waste his time responding to the president of the united states...




However, as The Telegraph reports, Khan has now spoken out, saying the US president"s state visit to the UK should be cancelled.



Following Tim Farron"s, leader of the Liberal Democrat party, comments that Trump"s invitation to visit the UK should be withdrawn. Mr Khan said Mr Trump had been wrong about "many things" and that the Government should cancel his state visit to the UK, which is expected to take place in October.





“I don’t think we should roll out the red carpet to the president of the USA in the circumstances where his policies go against everything we stand for,” he said.



“When you have a special relationship it is no different from when you have got a close mate. You stand with them in times of adversity but you call them out when they are wrong.



"There are many things about which Donald Trump is wrong.”



Theresa May, the Prime Minister, defended the mayor, while stopping short of directly criticising Mr Trump.





"I think Sadiq Khan is doing a good job and it"s wrong to say anything else - he"s doing a good job," she told reporters at an election campaign event in London.



The White House on Monday denied suggestions from US reporters that Mr Trump "picked a fight" with Mr Khan "because he was Muslim".


"I think that to suggest something like that is utterly ridiculous," Sarah Sanders, the deputy White House press secretary, told reporters.

Monday, March 27, 2017

Trump's Border Wall Plan Faces 3 Key Hurdles

President Donald Trump has now laid out exactly what he wants in the "big, beautiful wall" that he"s promised to build on the U.S.-Mexico border. But, as AP"s Alicia Caldwell reports, his effort to build a huge hurdle to those entering the U.S. illegally faces impediments of its own.



It"s still not clear how Trump will pay for the wall that, as described in contracting notices, would be 30 feet (9 meters) high and easy on the eye for those looking at it from the north. The Trump administration will also have to contend with unfavorable geography and many legal battles.


A look at some of those obstacles:


MONEY


Trump promised that Mexico would pay for his wall, a demand Mexico has repeatedly rejected. Trump"s first budget proposal to Congress, a preliminary draft that was light on details, asked lawmakers for a $2.6 billion down payment for the wall. An internal report prepared for Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly estimated that a wall along the entire border would cost about $21 billion. Congressional Republicans have estimated a more moderate price tag of $12 billion to $15 billion. Trump himself has suggested a cost of about $12 billion.


It"s unclear how much money Congress will approve. Lawmakers have been balking at his plans to sharply cut other federal spending to pay for the wall and other boosts to border security, while increasing military spending. White House spokesman Sean Spicer told reporters this past week that the administration was still looking at how the wall would be funded, adding that it hasn"t given up on Mexico footing the bill.


GEOGRAPHY


Roughly half of the 2,000-mile (3,200-kilometer) U.S.-Mexico border is in Texas and marked by the winding and twisting Rio Grande. A 1970 treaty with Mexico requires that anything built near that river not obstruct its flow. The same treaty applies to a stretch of border in Arizona, where the Colorado River marks the international boundary.


Some fencing that is already in place along the frontier is built well off the river, in some places nearly a mile (about a kilometer) away from the border.


Trump will have to navigate not only the treaty maintained by the International Boundary and Water Commission but also various environmental regulations that protect some stretches of border and restrict what kind of structures can be built and where. The contracting notices of March 17 say the Trump administration wants the wall dug at least 6 feet (almost 2 meters) into the ground. Along parts of the border in California, environmentally sensitive sand dunes required that a "floating fence" was built to allow the natural movement of the sand.


LEGAL CHALLENGES


Nearly all of the land along the Texas border is privately held - much of it by people whose families have been in the region for generations - and buying their land won"t be easy, as Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama discovered. Lawyers for both administrations fought in court with private landowners. Obama"s efforts to buy privately held land in the Rio Grande Valley have carried over into Trump"s term.


The Trump administration appears to be preparing for the legal fight and included a request for more lawyers to handle such cases in its budget proposal. Spicer said this past week the administration would "take the steps necessary" to fulfill Trump"s promise to secure the southern border.


ource: AP

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Trump's Wealth Takes 'Yuge' Billion Dollar Hit; Plummets 'Bigly' On Forbes List

Trump"s ranking on Forbes" annual list of the world"s wealthiest billionaires took a "bigly", if not totally "yuge", hit when the latest list was posted last night.  After ranking 336 with an estimated wealth of $4.5 billion last year, Trump fell too 544 with an estimate of $3.5 billion this year.


On the bright side, Trump was able to barely best Mark Cuban who was tied for 564 with an estimated wealth of $3.4 billion.  That said, Trump was tied with a Russian named Vladimir which we find to be highly suspicious...we would highly encourage the Senate Intelligence Committee to investigate this matter immediately and host a minimum of 5 days worth of useless hearings on the findings.


Trump



Forbes also noted that Trump is the first billionaire president in U.S. history but took a shot at the President by saying "it"s unclear" whether he"s complying with promises to remove himself from the day-to-day management of his real estate empire.  Per The Hill:





Forbes notes that Trump is the first billionaire president in U.S. history and said “ the business that made him rich remains intact.”



Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr. run the day-to-day operations and “have promised to separate the Trump Organization from the Trump presidency,” though the magazine notes “it"s unclear whether that is actually happening.”



Eric Trump told Forbes he will update his father on the family business’s financials "probably quarterly."



Trump Wealth



And here is your top 10 with all of the usual suspects still at the top of the list:


Forbes

Monday, March 13, 2017

Caught On Video: "Environmental Activists" Deface Trump's Palos Verdes Golf Course

A group of environmental activists defaced one of President Trump’s premier golf courses early on Sunday morning. The group, which calls itself an “anonymous environmental activist collective” snuck into Trump National Golf Club in Rancho Palos Verdes, California and using six-foot-tall letters carved a message into the green that said: “NO MORE TIGERS. NO MORE WOODS.” The "activists" also released a 1 minute video documenting the trespassing in all its glory, a recording which also spliced footage made from a drone at the time of the event.


The 7,300-yard course, located in a peninsula just south of Los Angeles, was recently ranked the 43rd best course in California by Golf Digest.


In a statement sent to The Washington Post, the group said the vandalism was carried out in response to the Trump administration’s “blatant disregard” for the environment. “In response to the president’s recent decision to gut our existing protection policies, direct action was conceived and executed on the green of his California golf course in the form of a simple message: NO MORE TIGERS. NO MORE WOODS,” the statement said.



The message was carved into the green using gardening tools and took less than one hour to accomplish, according to a member of the group who discussed the project with The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity.


The group consisted of four people, who accessed the course by scaling a fence and “walking down a steep hill laced with cacti,” the group member told The Post. “Tearing up the golf course felt justified in many ways,” the member said.


“Repurposing what was once a beautiful stretch of land into a playground for the privileged is an environmental crime in its own right.” According to the law, it"s also criminal trespassing and explains why the "activists" were all shrouded head and toe to avoid being recognized in the video.


Neither the golf course, nor the Trump Organization"s NYC HQ respond to requests for comment.  A spokesman for the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department confirmed that the department received a call for service Sunday morning about grass being dug up around hole five at the golf club. The spokesman said the department sent a deputy to the scene to determine whether the damage constituted an act of vandalism or whether it was accidental. It was the former.


“We hope this sends a message to Trump and his corrupt administration that their actions will be met with action,” the member added. Previously farmland, Trump National Golf Club opened in November 2000. On its website, the club touts its dedication to “protecting the environmentally sensitive habitat that plays host to several protected plant species and the endangered Coastal California Gnatcatcher (a small migratory bird).”


As the WaPo renminds us, Sunday’s vandalism was merely the latest in a long series of attacks involving Trump properties; most recently, the president"s brand-new Washington hotel was spray-painted with the words “Black Lives Matter” during a demonstration.

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Ruth Bader Ginsburg: "Not The Best Of Times" For America, "I Read WaPo And NYT Every Day"

Having regretted her remarks in July 2016 that now-President Donald Trump was "a faker," Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg says the US is "not experiencing the best of times" - but the "pendulum" will swing back.


Speaking to BBC Newsnight, in a rare interview, the oldest serving member of the Supreme Court (83 years old) says she is "optimistic in the long run"...



Justice Ginsburg reiterated the importance of the free press.





"I read the Washington Post and the New York Times every day, and I think that the reporters are trying to tell the public the way things are," she said.



"Think of what the press has done in the United States," she said citing the Watergate scandal. "That story might never have come out if we didn"t have the free press that we do."



Asked what most concerns her about the current climate she said, in an apparent reference to longstanding congressional gridlock:





"Our legislature - which is the first branch of government - is right now not working."



Justice Ginsburg was careful to avoid commenting directly on Donald Trump"s presidency.


Asked about the rise of the so-called "post truth world", Justice Ginsburg said:





"I am optimistic in the long run. A great man once said that the true symbol of the United States is not the bald eagle. It is the pendulum.



"And when the pendulum swings too far in one direction it will go back.



"Some terrible things have happened in the United States but one can only hope that we learn from those bad things."



She cited the example of the internment of Japanese-Americans during World War II, when more than 110,000 people were put into camps, in the largest official forced relocation in US history.





"That was a dreadful mistake. It took a long time for the United States to realise how dreadful it was. But ultimately the president acknowledged that there was no reason to intern people of Japanese ancestry and Congress passed a bill providing compensation for the people who were interned or their survivors."



Justice Ginsburg said she was encouraged by the Women"s March, which saw millions in the US and around the world take part in anti-Trump protests.





"I"ve never seen such a demonstration - both the numbers and the rapport of the people in that crowd. There was no violence, it was orderly. So yes, we are not experiencing the best times but there is there is reason to hope that that we will see a better day."



Of course, take all of her comments with a pinch of liberal salt as Trump tweeted - "Her mind is shot — resign."


Trump may have to wait a lot longer...





"At my age you have to take it year by year. I know I"m OK. What will be next year?"



"I"m hopeful however, because my most senior colleague the one who most recently retired, Justice John Paul Stevens, stepped down at age 90. So I have a way to go."


Friday, February 24, 2017

Trump Slams "Fake News" At CPAC Speech, Blasts Use Of Anonymous Sources

Not missing a beat, just hours after he attacked the FBI for being unable to catch "leaks", Trump went on the attack against the news media at a gathering of conservative activists Friday.


Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), where he had spoken on several previous occasions although skipping the event in 2016, Trump delivered another "victory speech" in which he reiterated his now traditional talking points, touching on bad polling (accusing polls of being fake), promised a surge in military spending, slammed bad deals, vowed to "build the wall", but mostly fell back on his favorite topic, lashing out at the press saying his administration was in a fight against “fake news” and especially those outlets who use "anonymous sources" while claiming he "loves the First Amendment."


Trump said he only considers "fake news" outlets to be "the enemy of the people," but extended the charge to say the media are dishonest and he accused it of fabricating sources for stories.


In his address to CPAC, Trump sought to clarify the difference between the press and “fake news media” and said he supports “honest” reporting and the First Amendment. “I’m not against the media. I’m not against the press. I don’t mind bad stories if I deserve them,” he said. “I am only against the fake news media or press,” he said. “I’m against the people that make up stories and make up sources."



“I want you all to know that we are fighting the fake news. It’s phony, fake,” Trump said before a crowd which took delight in the media bashing. “I called the fake news the enemy of the people. They are the enemy of the people, because they have no sources. They just make them up when there are none.”


“I’m against the people that make up stories and make up sources,” Trump said. “They shouldn’t be allowed to use sources unless they use somebody’s name. Let their name be put out there. Let their name be put out. A source says that Donald Trump is a horrible horrible human being. Let them say it to my face. Let there be no more sources.”’



Trump then again bashed Europe, and especially Sweden, as a source of bad immigration policy.



Among the other topics covered, while Trump did not provide any clarity on his economic plans, he did say the Mexican wall being built "way ahead of schedule", he promised that the repeal/replace of Obamacare is taking place on schedule; vowed that "bad dudes" would be thrown out of the country; casually mentioned tax reform and his accomplishments as the President-elect; the new massive military budget; the eradication of ISIS; repeated his desire to keeping terrorists out. He also said that global cooperation is good, but that the US will get better deals.


Trump got a warm reception when he took the stage, with huge applause and a standing ovation. Attendees continued to stand for his speech until he told them to take seat. There was also an overflow crowd in the back of the room, who chanted “USA” and “build that wall.”


Trump"s return to CPAC comes after he decided to skip it last year amid conflicts with his campaign schedule. According to The Hill, there were also reports that protesters would walk out of his scheduled speech last year. In CPAC’s 2016 poll for the White House, Trump came in a distant third behind Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

"We're Very Angry": Why Trump Wants To Expand America's Nuclear Arsenal

Shortly before the market close on Thursday, retailers stumbled on one single Reuters headline: Trump says he supports "some form" of border tax.


As Reuters elaborated, President Donald Trump on Thursday spoke favorably about an export-boosting border adjustment tax proposal being pushed by Republicans in the U.S. Congress, but did not specifically  endorse it. Trump had previously sent mixed signals on the proposal at the heart of a Republican plan to overhaul the U.S. tax code for the first time in more than 30 years.





"It could lead to a lot more jobs in the United States," Trump told Reuters in an interview, using his most positive language to date on the proposal. Trump had sent conflicting signals about his position on the border adjustability tax in separate media interviews in January, saying in one interview that it was "too complicated" and in another that it was still on the table. 



"I certainly support a form of tax on the border," he told Reuters on Thursday.



"What is going to happen is companies are going to come back here, they"re going to build their factories and they"re going to create a lot of jobs and there"s no tax." Trump also said his administration will tackle tax reform legislation after dealing with Obamacare, the health insurance system put in place by his predecessor, President Barack Obama.



Trump"s latest U-turn means that the BAT debate, having been largely assumed to be over, following vocal opposition from both senators and the retail lobby, is again back front and center. And since "some form" of border adjustment would force retailers to pass on rising import costs to consumers, it promptly sent the retail sector tumbling to day lows:




* * *


However, it was a separate series of comments to Reuters that drew just as much attention, as Trump appeared to revive the second coming of the nuclear arms race - something he hinted at several months ago - when he said that he wants to build up the U.S. nuclear arsenal to ensure it is at the "top of the pack," saying the United States has fallen behind in its atomic weapons capacity. Trump also complained about Russian deployment of a cruise missile in violation of an arms control treaty and said he would raise the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin when and if they meet.


In his first comments about the U.S. nuclear arsenal since taking office on Jan. 20, Trump said the United States has "fallen behind on nuclear weapon capacity."


“I am the first one that would like to see everybody - nobody have nukes, but we’re never going to fall behind any country even if it’s a friendly country, we’re never going to fall behind on nuclear power. 


"It would be wonderful, a dream would be that no country would have nukes, but if countries are going to have nukes, we’re going to be at the top of the pack," Trump said. The new strategic arms limitation treaty, known as New START, between the U.S. and Russia requires that by February 5, 2018, both countries must limit their arsenals of strategic nuclear weapons to equal levels for 10 years. Russia has 7,300 warheads and the United States, 6,970, according to the Ploughshares Fund, an anti-nuclear group.





The treaty permits both countries to have no more than 800 deployed and non-deployed land-based intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missile launchers and heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear weapons, and contains equal limits on other nuclear weapons.



Analysts have questioned whether Trump wants to abrogate New START or would begin deploying other warheads. In the interview, Trump called New START "a one-sided deal.  "Just another bad deal that the country made, whether it"s START, whether it"s the Iran deal ... We"re going to start making good deals," he said.


The United States is in the midst of a $1 trillion, 30-year modernization of its aging ballistic missile submarines, bombers and land-based missiles, a price tag that most experts say the country cannot afford.





Trump also complained that the Russian deployment of a ground-based cruise missile is in violation of a 1987 treaty that bans land-based American and Russian intermediate-range missiles.



"To me it"s a big deal," Trump said.  Asked if he would raise the issue with Putin, Trump said he would do so "if and when we meet." He said he had no meetings scheduled as of yet with Putin.



Speaking from behind his desk in the Oval Office, Trump  declared that "we"re very angry" at North Korea"s ballistic missile tests and said accelerating a missile defense system for U.S. allies Japan and South Korea was among many options available.


"There"s talks of a lot more than that," Trump said, when asked about the missile defense system. "We"ll see what happens. But it"s a very dangerous situation, and China can end it very quickly in my opinion.


"It"s very late. We"re very angry at what he"s done, and frankly this should have been taken care of during the Obama administration," he said. According to Japanese news reports, the Japanese government plans to start debate over the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, and the land-based Aegis Ashore missile defense system to improve its capability to counter North Korean ballistic missiles.


Trump vowed during his campaign to step up missile defense efforts and within minutes of his Jan. 20 inauguration, the White House announced that the administration intended to develop a "state of the art" missile defense system to protect against attacks from Iran and North Korea.


It did not provide details on whether the system would differ from those already under development, its cost or how it would be paid for.

Friday, February 17, 2017

In Fiery, "Surreal" Press Conference, Trump Launches War On The Media

President Trump blasted the "out of control" dishonesty of the mainstream media during a Thursday press conference, accusing reporters of distorting facts to help special interests.




At the start of a nearly two-hour announcement, which was meant to introduce the new pick for Secretary of Labor, Alexander Acosta and promptly turned into a fiery, at times rambling back and forth with members of the press more reminiscent of his campaign speeches, which covered leaks to the media, Russian relations, immigration policy, the final fate of ObamaCare and a multitude of other subjects, President Trump rejected portrayals of chaos in his administration and claimed "incredible" progress in his first four weeks in office, lashing out at media organizations he said "will not tell you the truth."


 "I"m not ranting and raving, I"m just telling you you"re dishonest people," Trump told the press. 


Trump opened the speech with what Bloomberg dubbed a 25-minute tirade in which he pointed to the stock market’s performance as evidence of his early accomplishments and said news organizations work "for the special interests and for those profiting off a very, very broken system." He mentioned that a Rasmussen poll found that he had 55 percent approval - Gallup’s most recent tracking poll found he had 40 percent support -- and said "the stock market has hit record numbers, as you know."


"I’m here today to update the American people on the incredible progress that’s been made the last four weeks since my inauguration," Trump said. "I see stories of chaos. It’s the exact opposite. This administration is running like a fine-tuned machine."  "There’s zero chaos" he claimed, and pivoted to Obama: "To be honest I inherited a mess," Trump said. "It’s a mess. At home and abroad."


The president then launched into a laundry list of issues on which he has claimed victories and progress, including border security, combating the Islamic State, job creation and a reduction of government regulation.


“In each of these actions I"m keeping my promises to the American people. These are campaign promises,” Trump said. He said the steps he’s taken in the four weeks since he was sworn in should surprise nobody, especially in the media.


But the highlight was his all out attack on the press :





“I"m making this presentation directly to the American people with the media present, which is an honor to have you, this morning, because many of our nation"s reporters and folks will not tell you the truth. And will not treat the wonderful people of our country with the respect that they deserve."



"Many of our nation"s reporters and folks will not tell you the truth and will not treat you with the respect you deserve"



"Much of the media in Washington, D.C., along with New York, Los Angeles in particular, speaks for the special interests and for those profiting off the obviously very, very broken system.



“The press has become so dishonest that if we don"t talk about it we are doing a tremendous disservice to the American people. Tremendous disservice. We have to talk about it. We have to find out what"s going on because the press honestly is out of control."



“In other words, the media is trying to attack our administration because they know we are following through on pledges that we made, and they are not happy about it, for whatever reason. But a lot of people are happy about it.”



There was much more, including some of the key exchanges with the members of the press corps:


  • He warned that bad relations with Russia could result in nuclear war, as a way of explaining his attempt to remake relations with President Vladimir Putin. “Nuclear holocaust would be like no other,” he said.

  • He signaled that he was softening on immigration policy, saying that he’d deal with President Obama’s executive action unilaterally easing immigration law “with heart.”

  • He said he did not “know of” any official on his presidential campaign having contact with Russian officials during the election, though he had to be asked three times before giving an answer.

  • He said he’s instructed the Department of Justice to look into the leaks coming out of his administration.

  • He conceded that the leaks reported on by the press were correct, despite claiming news organizations continually get things wrong. “The leaks are absolutely real. The news is fake, because so much of the news is fake,” he said.

  • He scolded an Orthodox Jewish reporter for asking about rising anti-Semitism in America.

  • He asked a black reporter whether members of the Congressional Black Caucus are friends of hers.

  • He predicted that the press would claim that he was “ranting” and “raving.” “Tomorrow the headlines are going to be Donald Trump rants — I’m not ranting and raving,” he said.

And some further details:


Trump discussed his popularity and how well the administration is doing...






Trump lauded a new poll from the conservative-leaning Rasmussen that found he holds a 55 percent approval rating, significantly higher than other recent polls.



Additionally noting that Mike Flynn "did nothing wrong"...



Clarifying that the economy has problems and they are Obama"s fault...








“I’m here again to take my message straight to the people,” POTUS stated. “As you know, our administration inherited many problems across government, and across the economy.”



“To be honest, I inherited a mess. It’s a mess,” he added. “At home, and abroad, a mess.”



“Jobs are pouring out of the country — you see what’s going on with all of the companies leaving our country, going to Mexico and other places — low pay, low wages, mass instability over seas, no matter where you look, the Middle East, a disaster. North Korea.”



“We’ll take care of it, folks,” he reassured his audience. “We are going to take care of it all. i just wanted to let you know, I inherited a mess.”



Trump then slammed reports of his advisers and associates being in contact with Russians during campaign:





"it"s all fake news."



*TRUMP: I OWN NOTHING IN RUSSIA, HAVE NO DEALS OR LOANS THERE



Some additional excerpts include:


“Drugs are becoming cheaper than candy bars”


"My administration is running like a fine-tuned machine"



"US 9th Circuit Court is in turmoil and chaos"


  • *TRUMP ON TRAVEL BAN SAYS WAS SMOOTH ROLLOUT BUT BAD COURT

  • *TRUMP: DID TRAVEL BAN QUICKLY TO AVOID PEOPLE RUSHING IN

  • *TRUMP TO REVISE TRAVEL ORDER IN NEAR FUTURE, DOJ SAYS: REUTERS

  • *TRUMP ON IMMIGRATION ACTION: TAILORED TO 9TH CIRCUIT DECISION

  • *TRUMP: WE"LL SHOW `GREAT HEART" ON DACA PROGRAM

  • *TRUMP SAYS WILL HAVE TO CONVINCE PEOPLE ON DACA SOLUTION

"The tone of media coverage is full of such hatred"




"I"m really not a bad person"


"I didn"t divide this country, it was divided when I got here"


"There are two Chicagos - one is posh, safe; one is crime-ridden"


"Rep. Cummings said meeting Trump would be bad for him"


"I"m the least racist person, least anti-semitic person around"


"The whole Russian thing is a ruse"


  • *TRUMP: SAYS PEOPLE WOULD CHEER HIM BLOWING UP RUSSIA SHIP

  • *TRUMP: BLOWING UP RUSSIAN SUB OFF U.S. WOULDN"T BE GOOD MOVE

  • *TRUMP: PUTIN MAY ASSUME HE CAN"T MAKE DEAL W/ ME

  • *TRUMP: EASIER TO BE TOUGH ON RUSSIA, BUT WE WOULDN"T MAKE DEAL

  • *TRUMP: I UNDERSTAND WHAT RUSSIA"S DOING MILITARILY

  • *TRUMP: I MAY NOT BE ABLE TO DO RUSSIA DEAL; AT LEAST I TRIED

"Nuclear holocaust would be like no other"



Trump then touched on the topic of a Russian reset, which he explained as follows:



"I watch CNN. It"s so much anger and hatred and just the hatred. I don"t watch it anymore"




"The leaks are real, the news is fake"



Finally, President Trump was called out on his "alternative fact" about the electoral college votes.. "why should Americans trust you?"



* * *


Summing it all up...





The full "unorthodox" press conference below:

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Corporate America Setting Up "War Rooms" To Prep For Potential Trump Tweets

Since November 8th, several public companies have unsuspectingly fallen into the cross hairs of Trump tweets sending their stocks gyrating violently while adding or erasing millions of dollars worth of market cap in a matter of seconds.  Here is just a small sample:









As we pointed out back in January, Toyota"s shares, along with the Mexican Peso, tumbled on Trump"s threat to impose a "big border tax" on their Corolla imports as the unprepared and shocked company frantically drafted a response.





As Mr. Trump posted his message, Toyota’s chief communications officer, Scott Vazin, was packing his suitcase and preparing to leave his hotel room in Las Vegas, where he had been holding meetings around a trade show organized by the Consumer Technology Association. Mr. Vazin’s phone began to buzz as he faced a deluge of text messages and calls from his communications staff and reporters.



Once the tweet was sent, Mr. Vazin called Messrs. Lentz and Nagata to discuss the statement he would craft, as the company’s stock began to inch downward. The auto maker posted its response on Twitter less than two hours later.



“Toyota has been part of the cultural fabric in the U.S. for nearly 60 years,” said its statement, which bolded the name of the Mexican city where its plant will be located—Guanajuato, not Baja. The company touted its “$21.9 billion direct investment in the U.S.” and its number of employees and facilities in the U.S. Mr. Vazin said the company hasn’t been contacted by Mr. Trump since the statement.



Now, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump"s Twitter blasts, which often drive "yuge" market reactions and come without warning, are forcing companies across the country to draft plans for “war rooms” to address a surprise presidential tweet.  Moreover, other companies are actively exploring strategically placing ads on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” CNN and “The O’Reilly Factor”—programs and networks fro which Trump has often appeared to draw inspiration for his tweets.





“Every business and association in Washington is thinking about how they would respond to a tweet from Donald Trump,” said Alex Conant, a partner at the communications firm Firehouse Strategies and a longtime Republican strategist.



In one recent simulation to prepare for a public attack by Mr. Trump, says consultant Eric Dezenhall, top executives of a science and technology company spent an afternoon in a room responding to various fallout scenarios, such as a stock-price plunge, congressional hearings or questions from investigative reporters.



Mr. Dezenhall says the company that
rehearsed the drill is now looking for something it can use as a potential peace offering to the president in the event of a critical tweet or other Trump tirade, “an equivalent to ‘we’re no longer building a plant in Mexico.’”



Lobbying shops are telling their clients to do a thorough review of their business interests, especially as they relate to federal contracts, so they can tell a story about how the firm invests domestically.



Still others companies have begun aggressively promoting previously announced job creation numbers in an effort to head off any criticism from the White House.  The latest example of such a move came from Intel"s CEO, Brian Krzanich, who recently visited the White House to tout a $7BN investment in a facility in Chandler, Arizona which was already announced under the Obama administration.





Other companies have taken more proactive steps. Intel Corp. CEO Brian Krzanich last week traveled to the White House to roll out the company’s plans for a $7 billion investment in a major manufacturing plant in Arizona—plans that had been in the works for several years. Mr. Trump said following the announcement: “We’re very happy.”



Other companies, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Amazon.com Inc., have issued press releases touting U.S. job creation numbers from previously planned store openings and expansions. Some are also turning to “social-listening” tools to monitor mentions of their products on social networks, analyze the fallout from Trump tweets about other companies and track what’s said on the accounts that Mr. Trump follows.



General Motors Co.—whose CEO Mary Barra has frequently spoken with Mr. Trump—said last month it would invest at least $1 billion across several U.S. factories, days after the president accused it on Twitter of moving Mexican-made vehicles across the border.



Guess we can add the cost of establishing these "war rooms" to the list of excuses as to why companies will inevitably miss Q1 2017 earnings...at least they get to blame something other than the "weather" for once.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

What Trump Means For Vol Trading: "This Is The Start Of Global Regime Change"

Via Artemis Capital Management,


The world changed the night of November 8th when Donald Trump rode a wave of populist anger to become the president elect of the United States of America. Many readers of our investor letters know that Trump’s victory was not a surprise to Artemis… as I observed with fascination how many of friends and family from my birth state of Michigan, most of whom voted for Obama the last two elections, reluctantly admitted in private they were supporting Trump. I cautioned, both in writing and during a speaking engagement at the EQDerivatives Conference in May, that the market was dramatically underestimating the probability of a Trump victory given socio-economic factors and age demographics in swing states like Michigan and Florida. What the consensus failed to see is that the election was not between a Democrat and Republican, but rather a Globalist and a Populist. America wanted a populist of one vintage or the other. The Democratic party didn’t lose the election in November, but in the summer, when they suppressed their alternative populist candidate in favor of an oligarch. This is just the beginning - I’ll double down this a passage from my June 2016 Letter to Investors.



 


What Trump Means for Volatility Trading


Trump is a boost to volatility traders (but not traditional hedging or tail risk) because of his inherent unpredictability. Never before in history has a president been so able and willing to shift a policy debate with a tweet. In a world where we have gotten used to parsing Fed statements for methodically planned hints on policy shifts, Trump is a protectionist bull in a china shop. Trump will keep the price of uncertainty high, and high uncertainty is very good for the business of dynamic volatility trading, but oddly poses a challenge for traditional hedging and tail risk funds.


Uncertainty and volatility are not the same thing. 2016 was a year of low volatility but historically high uncertainty. For example, although the VIX index averaged only 15.82 in 2016 (36th percentile of observations) investor hedging drove the expectation of vol to historic highs as measured by skew, implied volatility premium, and volatility forward premium.



Traditional hedging and tail risk will struggle in an environment where markets remain calm and the cost of uncertainty remains high. Dynamic volatility traders can perform because we can recycle higher priced uncertainty to achieve a better return profile on long optionality. For example, this year Artemis found value by recycling overpriced skew and term premium into volatility-of-volatility and vol-of-vol-convexity.


Trump is the start of Global Regime Change


Trump is the first “populist” US president since Andrew Jackson in 1829 and takes office with a mandate to reverse the course of globalization. Denial is not a strategy and it’s time to face the reality that is coming… the good, the bad, and the ugly. First off, stop underestimating this man – you don’t become leader of the free world through stupidity and luck. The rants and twitter storms are part of a strategy of media control and distraction. Trump knows that if you can’t win, then you change the rules of the game – this is what he has already done with American politics – and what he is about to do to the entire Post-Bretton Woods World Order. If you really want to know a person, watch what they do, and not what they say… or what they tweet.


Trump’s business career was largely comprised of three core strategies 1) Leverage 2) Restructure 3) Brand… in that order. Throughout the late 1970s and 1980s Trump rode a generational decline in interest rates and debt binge to purchase a range of high profile real estate projects including the Grand Hyatt (1978). Trump Tower (1983), the Plaza Hotel (1988) and the Taj Mahal (1988). In the 1990s he went through a total of 6 bankruptcies due to over-leveraged hotel and casino businesses in Atlantic City and New York. In the 2000s he pivoted to move away from debt-driven property investments to building a global brand through the “Apprentice” TV show. Trump will run the country as he ran his businesses…. He will lever, and lever, and lever, and lever… and lever… and then restructure his way to success, or whatever success is defined as by the broadest measure of popularity at any given time. Trumponomics, if it delivers, will be a supply side free for all: massive tax cuts, deficit spending to create jobs, financial and energy deregulation, business creation, and trade protectionism all driving inflation. More importantly, Trump sees bankruptcy as a tool and not an obligation and will have no problem pushing the US to the limits of debt expansion.


“I do play with bankruptcy laws, they’re very good to me!” he once said. Trump may be willing to bring the US to the brink of default if it produces middle class jobs and popularity, and what he understands is that nobody can stop him, not Europe, not China. In a Trump mindset, the US national debt and deficits, or prior commitments (e.g. NATO), are not to be taken seriously as long as we hold all the cards… namely the biggest military in the world, energy independence, world reserve currency, and the world’s largest buyer of consumer goods. He is dangerously right, these geo-political solvency tools are far more powerful than the bankruptcy laws he used to protect his casino assets… the US is just another, bigger, badder, more bankrupt casino with air craft carriers. The media doesn’t seem to understand that Trump’s overtures to Russia and Taiwan are not diplomatic gaffes but rather forms of economic leverage. He is reminding Europe that NATO is nothing without the US, and reminding China that creditor nations lose trade wars. As a negotiating tactic, it may work … or may drive the world to a hot war… or both.


Like it or not --- the old rules are gone. Diplomacy has been replaced by Twitter, and the unexpected is now to be expected. Trump’s world is a zero-sum game – and this means a shock doctrine of US centric re-positioning in trade in a dramatic change from the post-World War II order. The US has the largest military, the best geography, best technology innovation, the largest economy, best demographics in the developed world, and shale-driven energy independence to boot.


Trump won the election by funneling the frustrations of the marginalized white middle class voter humiliated after three decades of wage stagnation… he is the “super-ego” of the American Middle Class… and Trump will restructure the global order to make that voter happy if that is what it takes to get him re-elected.


Trump’s biggest and newest brand is the U.S.A., and he will use nationalism and every publicity stunt possible to create spectacles of economic and military success.


All bets are off, and that is very good for volatility… but potentially very turbulent for the world.


The Trump presidency will mark the reversal of the Post-Bretton Woods World Order ending a multi-decade regime of reflexive globalism. Ever since the 1970s the world been dominated by a self-reinforcing arrangement between Developed-Debtor and Emerging-Creditor nations driving generational trends in currencies, commodities, interest rates, and stocks (see chart). The US provides the largest consumer base in the world, military protection of global trade routes, developed financial markets, and willingness to take on debt --- and the developed world produces cheap goods and in turn buys debt and dollars reinforcing the monetary-military reflexivity. Asset prices rise, debt expands, commodities rise, developed world inflation stays tame, and interest rates drop. The net effect is that the US exports its middle class and inflation abroad and the emerging world absorbs that inflation creating a new consumer class and social stability for authoritarian regimes (China). The financiers, technologists, and emerging world industrialists get richer and richer, while the developed world middle class is marginalized.



Trump marks a populist rejection of this global arrangement, which is going to send the entire world order down a very unpredictable path. Do not underestimate the probability that Trump will not serve out his full term – you do not threaten a multi-decade system empowering a transnational class of global elites without a bloody fight. The rally in the USD is more than just trade protectionism, it is about security and capital flight in anticipation of the new world order. For the US, Trump may be good in the short term but drive stagflation in the long term. For Europe and China, he will be a disaster. Volatility will be forthcoming, but it will be worse internationally than in the US. Markets are dramatically underpricing the three-year forward probability of a European Union breakup, and China’s debt bubble collapse, both of which have been probabilistically amplified by the Trump victory. For evidence of the later consider the current USD funding crisis that is causing inter-bank lending to spike in China, stealth devaluation of the RMB, and surges in Bitcoin. History serves as a guide to periods whereby globalism turned into isolationism, namely the 1910s and 1930s… and the lessons we can apply from those eras to today are further financial crises and higher probabilities of armed conflict between Russia vs. Europe, Iran vs. Saudi Arabia, and China vs. Japan in the next decade. Fourth turnings do not happen quietly.



The Trump promise of fiscal stimulus, de-regulation, and trade barriers has sent the USD soaring, the stock market higher, market sentiment to all-time highs, and nominal yields back to their highest levels in three years. All-in-all the rally appears a little overdone. It’s eerily similar to the rally that occurred after Reagan was elected in 1980, but the comparison should stop right there. In 1980 the S&P 500 index sported a PE ratio of 9x compared to 21x today, the 10yr UST yield was over 1100 basis points higher at 13.56%, US Debt to GDP was at 30% versus 105% today (not including off balance sheet liabilities and social security) and the top marginal tax rate was 70% vs. 39.6% today. The idea that Trump’s election somehow changes world demographics and deflation overnight, is about as naive as giving Obama the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 for his role in ushering in a new era of global peace.



When looking at the effect of Trump, I don’t see a return to the 1980s, but rather the late 1990s. The aftermath of the Trump election resulted in an unusual positive correlation between the USD, Yields, and the S&P 500 Index. The last time the USD, Stocks, and UST yields both rose and fell simultaneously was at the height of the dot-com era in 1997-1999 (2008-2009 also experienced periods where all fell). During the late-1990s all three assets rose and declined in concert as the market gyrated between irrationally exuberant growth and international crises (Asia and Russia Default). High volatility and a bull-market co-existed during this time as the VIX averaged 25 between 1997 and 1999 (compared to 15.8 in 2016) as the S&P 500 index rose +98%. If supply side stimulus and animal spirits released by Trump amplify the current bull-market and lead to inflation, expect the second order effects of his policies to cause violent bouts of international turbulence and drawdowns reminiscent of the Asia (1997) and Russia (1998) crises two decades ago. The extent which international turbulence causes significant US equity volatility will depend on contagion effects. For example, in 1998 it took several months for the effects of Russia’s sovereign default to spread, eventually threatening the US financial system via the contagion vehicle of Long Term Capital Management. Expect a similar pattern for a banking crash in China, EU breakup, or regional war.



In the late-1990s overvaluation was concentrated to one asset class with ample room for policy response. Today there are historically high valuations in equities and fixed income coupled with high sovereign debt, unprecedented central bank balance sheets, and poor world demographics. Low beta and high dividend index stocks are the new dot-coms. According to S&P Capital IQ, Russell 2000 index stocks carried a 62 percent valuation premium over non-index stocks in 2015, rising from just 12% in 2006. This time around it may not be possible to print our way out of the next crisis… so mechanisms are already being put in place to “freeze” the assets inside the system... essentially a global version of the Cyprus “Bail-in”… but that is a different story for a different investment letter.