Showing posts with label underfunded. Show all posts
Showing posts with label underfunded. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Welcome to the Age of Fury: “This Simmering Anger of the Populace Is Going to Start Boiling Over”

This article was originally published by Chris Martenson at PeakProsperity.com


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Are You Infuriated Yet?


by Chris Martenson


More and more, I’m encountering people who are simply infuriated with how our “leaders” are running (or to put it more accurately, ruining) things right now. And I share that fury.


It’s perfectly normal human response to be infuriated when an outside agent hurts you, especially if the pain seems unnecessary, illogical or random.


Imagine if your neighbor enjoyed setting off loud explosives at all hours of the day and night. Or if he had a habit of tailgating and brake-checking you every time he saw your car on the road. You’d been well within your rights to be infuriated.


Or to use a much more common example from the real world : When your politicians repeatedly pass laws that hurt you in favor of large corporations — that, too, is infuriating. Especially if those actions run directly counter to their campaign promises.


There’s a lot of be infuriated about in the world today, so go ahead and embrace your rage. By doing so, you’ll be in a better mindset to understand things like Brexit, Catalonia, and Trump, each of which is a reflection of the fury of your fellow citizens, who are finally waking up to the fact that they’ve been victims for too long.


An easy prediction to make is that this simmering anger of the populace is going to start boiling over more violently in the coming years. Welcome to the Age of Fury.


‘Over The Top’ Dumb


Do you ever get the sense that, as a society, we’re being dangerously reckless? Perhaps so dumb that we might not recover from the repercussions of our stupidity for many generations, if ever?


There are economic and financial idiocies in motion that are, by themselves, unsolvable predicaments without a peaceful solution. But when combined with resource depletion and declining net energy, they’re positively intractable.


Take for example the hundreds of trillions of dollars-worth of underfunded entitlement and pension promises. Those promises cannot be kept and they cannot be paid. Everybody with a basic comprehension of math can conclude as such.


Yet we continue to operate as if the opposite were true. We comfort ourselves that, somehow, all the promised future payouts will be made in full — even though the funds are insolvent, their returns are much lower than the actuarial projections require, and payout demand mercilessly rises each year.


Spoiler alert: This isn’t some future disaster lying in wait. It’s unfolding right now.


Take these headlines spanning the past several years:


When it comes to broken retirement promises, the future is now. It will be with us for a very long time.


Why? Because the math simply doesn’t work. It’s broken, it’s been broken for a long time. You can’t put too little in the piggy bank at the start, then raid it over time, and still expect to have enough at the end.


And yet we, as a society, have preferred to pretend as if that weren’t the case. Which, it turns out, was a terrible “strategy.”


But if you think that’s bad, you’re going to positively hate this chart:


S&P 500 chart


The pension liabilities now blowing up are contained within the thin green smear in the middle of this chart. Think on the nation’s inability to handle that single crisis, and now reflect on how overwhelmed it’s going to be by the far larger predicaments that lie elsewhere on the chart.


The Infuriating Plunder-fest That Is Health Care


The Medicare liabilities (the orange and largest band on the above chart) are immense, and will only become more so as our largest demographic, the baby boomers, further ages. But they become especially infuriating when seen in the larger context of the racketeering that drives the health care system in the United States.


Instead of doing anything constructive about the high number of IOUs building up within Medicare, Washington DC politicians are sidestepping the most obvious elements that contribute the most to the problem. Enormously wasteful, the “healthcare” system is entirely out of control and spiraling deeper into an abyss that threatens to literally destroy the most productive segment of the US social structure: the middle and upper middle classes.


That should be a topic of serious discussion in the halls of power. But none is being had.


Literally each day brings worse news on the skyrocketing costs of healthcare. But, as with most topics, the media mostly focuses on the symptoms (prices) rather than the causes of the issue.


The real culprits here are the insurance cartel and a hospital system that has the most unfair, incomprehensible, and inhumane billing process ever devised. One easy to grasp feature of both the insurance companies and conspire to pay the executives far more than they actually deserve or are truly worth.


Health care premiums for 2018 set to go up by as much as 50 percent


Oct 5, 2017


Several states have announced rates for health insurance premiums on the Obamacare exchanges for 2018. Topping the list is Georgia, with rates that are 57 percent higher than last year, while Florida said some premiums will be 45 percent higher.


Among the reasons for these increases is the uncertainty about the future of the Affordable Care Act. President Donald Trump has vowed to repeal and replace the health care law, which was passed under his predecessor President Barack Obama.


Insurers are raising premiums in the face of repeated threats from President Trump to stop funding so-called cost-sharing reductions, payments to insurers that cover out-of-pocket costs for some low-income consumers. Trump previously referred to these payments as “bailouts” for insurance companies and threatened to stop making the payments so as to “let Obamacare implode”. (Source)


That’s the story the health insurers are going with: they have to raise rates because they’re uncertain whether they will get AS MUCH LOOT under the new rules being considered as they did under the utterly disastrous Obamacare provisions.


How much loot are we talking about? Look at this chart of the stock price of United Healthcare (UNH) since the passage of the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare):


S&P 500 chart


If this chart showing massive near-4x gains in just 5 years, coupled with your steep annual premium increases, doesn’t infuriate you, you are just not getting it.


Even if your employer pays for your health care (somewhat obscuring the true impact of premium increases), the cost to you is fewer and lower pay increases, as well as steady yearly reductions in covered services along with higher co-pays and deductible amounts.


Still not infuriated? Ok, maybe this will do the trick. Here how much executive compensation at the major insurers was last year:


S&P 500 chart


(Source)


The average family health care insurance premium in 2016 was $18,764, meaning that Mark Bertolini from Aetna alone required 100% of the premiums from more than 2,200 families just to pay him in 2016. Of course, the “C-suite” of these health care insurers are loaded with other high-paid parasites who are just as busy gouging the young and old alike.


This is a complete travesty and joke. Congress and the Senate, sitting on their deservedly low approval ratings, pretend they cannot do anything about it. Too complicated they say. Bullshit I say. Go after the obscene pay packages and profits of the insurance industry as a first matter of business. Then make it a crime for hospitals to bill people differently for the exact same services.


That’s a no-brainer. Can you imagine if your mechanic had a secret pricing formula for every customer that was, literally, based on their maximum ability to pay? Nobody would stand for it, it’s disgusting that we tolerate this when it comes to something as vital and necessary as our health and even lives.


Fury, not tolerance, is what’s needed now.


Conclusion (to Part 1)


The future has arrived. The pension losses are here and just getting started and the future will have a lot more of those sorts of broken promises.


The health care insurance crisis has been with us for 20 years or so now and Obamacare just put some extra accelerant on that fire, which is now consuming middle class households by the tens of thousands.


Both the pension and health care crises are infuriating and self-inflicted wounds. We could have avoided them by making wiser choices in the past. We didn’t. We could limit their damage by making better choices today. We almost assuredly won’t.


Current conversations and proposals are thinly disguised sleight-of-hand movements whose purpose is to deflect attention from the thefts underway. Anybody who studies the system and its math comes to the same conclusion: the corporations have all the power and they are misusing it for private gain.


Why there aren’t more politicians willing to call a spade a spade and actually protect their constituents is a real mystery. But the next wave of populist candidates certainly won’t be. People are sick and tired of being asked to give more and more while corporations and wealthy elites keep taking more and more.


It’s simply infuriating.


But that’s not the worst of it. The mistakes we are making right now in terms of energy policy and ecological destruction are far more dangerous to your personal health, liberty and future prospects than a simple market crash.


In Part 2: It’s Time For Action, we uncover the hidden downside risks in today’s financial markets and explain how, as destructive as a coming market crash will be, the longer-term damage to society and risks to your well-being are rooted in the potential breakdown of the systems we depend on to live.


As with pensions and health care, we are pursuing similar dangerously misguided policies in our farming & food systems, extraction of industrial resources, and ecological management — to name just a few.


There’s an appropriate time for fury. And that time is now — provided we use the anger to spur us into constructive action. Get your fury on.


Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

Monday, July 3, 2017

Pensions Timebomb In America – “Global Crisis” Cometh

  • America’s underfunded pension system is “not a distant concern but a system already in crisis”…

  • Tax may explode as governments seek to bail out insolvent pension plans

  • Illinois, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Kentucky and eight other states vulnerable

  • The simple mathematical mismatch at the heart of the pension crisis…

  • Why the pension crisis really is “America’s silent crisis”…

  • Pensions timebomb confronts Ireland, UK and most EU countries



By Brian Maher, Managing editor, The Daily Reckoning


“This is going to be a national crisis…”


“This” being America’s woefully underfunded pension liabilities, according to Karen Friedman. She’s the executive vice president of the Pension Rights Center.


(A place called the Pension Rights Center does in fact exist. We checked.)



MarketWatch columnist Jeff Reeves howls in confirmation that “collapsing pensions will fuel America’s next financial crisis.”




“This is not a distant concern,” warns he, “but a system already in crisis.”



According to data supplied by the Federal Reserve, pensions — public and private combined — were roughly 27% underfunded at the end of last year.


By some estimates, America’s public pensions alone are sunk in a $6 trillion abyss.


The issue, approached from any direction, is an impossible knot… a tar pit… a minotaur’s maze of blind alleys and dead ends.



How has the American pension come to such an estate?




Most public pension systems were built upon the sunny assumption that their investments will yield a handsome 7.5% annual return.




But consider…




The average public pension plan returned just 1.5% last year.



Last year marked the second consecutive year that plans undershot the 7.5% return rate, according to Governing magazine.


The same plans worked an average gain of 2–4% in 2015.


A highly technical term describes the foregoing if it goes on long enough… and we apologize if it sends you to the dictionary:


Insolvency.


Briefly turn your attention to the Golden State, for example. California.


State pensions are only in funds to meet 65% of their promised benefits.


And California pins its hopes on that golden annual 7.5% return to make the shortage good.


But it’s in a devil of a fine fix if the average public pension plan only returns 1.5%.


The math is the math.


California essentially depends on returns 400% above the norm, according to financial analyst Larry Edelson.


But California is by no means alone.


We won’t run the entire roll call of shame.


But the great state of Illinois, for one, risks sinking into a $130 billion “death spiral” from its unfunded pension liabilities, as Ted Dabrowski of the Illinois Policy Institute described it.


S&P Global Ratings has even threatened to downgrade the state’s credit score to “junk” status.


New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Kentucky are also among the worst deadbeats.


But the problems run from ocean to ocean and south to north.


A report from Moody’s reads thus:



For many states and municipalities, exposure to unfunded pension liabilities is already at or near all-time highs. Since cost burdens are already expected to further increase, pension fund investment performance is critical for the credit quality of many governments.



Not even a “best case” cumulative 25% investment return on public pension plans would stanch the blood flow, according to Moody’s.


They say that best-case 25% would merely reduce pension liabilities a slender 1% through 2019 due to weak contributions and poor past investment returns.


“But I don’t have a pension,” comes your response. “This doesn’t concern me.”


Ah, but have another guess — at least if you swear off your taxes in these United States.


Is it your belief that governments will let their prized public pension plans flop?


There are votes to consider, after all.


Jilted pensioners are capable of generating a good deal of hullabaloo, hullabaloo to which the official ear is exquisitely attuned.


Besides, do you think kind Uncle Samuel will turn the politically strategic states of California and Illinois out on their ears?


As our resident income specialist Zach Scheidt argues:



Your tax bill could explode as governments around the country seek to bail out insolvent pension plans. And you know how much politicians like to use your tax money to bail out some constituent. They like to prove their “compassion” with your money!




“Expect to pay higher state and local taxes for fewer services in the years to come,” adds Larry Edelson, before mentioned.





Read more at Zero Hedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-30/pensions-timebomb-america-%E2%80%93-global-crisis%E2%80%9D-cometh


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