Isolation Escalates As Chinese Airline Ends Flights To North Korea

It"s barely been a day since President Donald Trump revealed that the US would once again label North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism and impose broad new sanctions against its government and senior officials, and already more bad news for the restive communist state has emerged. This time, the Associated Press is reporting that Air China, a state owned airline, is canceling flights to North Korea, leaving the North"s troubled Air Koryo as the only airline operating flights between North Korea and its primary economic benefactor.

Flights were “temporarily suspended due to unsatisfactory business operations,” said an employee of Air China’s press office who would give only his surname, Zhang, according to the AP. The suspension was blamed on falling demand for the routes. A foreign ministry spokesman, Lu Kang, said he hadn’t heard about Air China’s cancellation. He said such decisions would be made based on the “state of operation and the market.”

Beijing has supported UN sanctions on North Korean exports meant to pressure the government of leader Kim Jong Un to drop its pursuit of nuclear and missile technology, but China has argued against measures that would harm ordinary North Koreans.

Since mid-summer, the UN Security Council has passed two rounds of sanctions (with China"s approval) that impose strict limitations on exports of North Korean seafood, coal and other raw materials. And Trump said the Treasury will outline more restrictions to be imposed against the North and senior government officials in the coming weeks. Since Air China is state-owned, the cancellation of the routes received at least tacit government approval. But since the sanctions have choked off much of the North"s legitimate economy, it"s possible the routes were eliminated to prevent the airline from losing money, forcing the government to intervene with subsidies. Back in September, China kicked out North Korean businessmen and instructed its banks not to do business with North Koreans or North Korean-owned businesses.

To be sure, Airlines have been rolling back flights to North Korea for months.

Airlines have steadily reduced the frequency of flights to North Korea as mounting political tensions depressed the already small number of business travelers and tourists visiting the North.

 

Air China Ltd. announced in April it was cutting the frequency of flights to North Korea due to lack of demand. Some other Chinese carriers offered charter services to the North but those also have been canceled.

 

Zhang said the last Air China flight to Pyongyang was Monday and he didn’t know when service might resume.

 

The status of Air Koryo’s flights was unclear. Phone calls to the carrier’s Beijing office weren’t answered. The flight information website for the Beijing airport showed its Pyongyang flight on Tuesday took off as scheduled.

Lu, the foreign ministry spokesman, appealed for measures to ease the tense standoff.

 

“Given the highly complex and sensitive situation on the peninsula, we hope all relevant parties can do something conducive to alleviating the tension and pulling all sides concerned back to the track of negotiation and dialogue to settle the peninsular nuclear issue,” he said at a regular news briefing.

Whether it"s true or not, Trump has shown himself more than willing to take credit for any signs of a chill in relations between the North and China. For example, he boasted about having secured assurances from President Xi that China would continue to help isolated the North"s economy. Though many have speculated that Xi is just flattering his American rival, and that China has no intention of squeezing the North. 

Defining Trump's 4 Bad Options For Dealing With North Korea

Yesterday, as most Americans were busy celebrating the signing of the Declaration of Independence, North Korea conducted yet another missile test and announced that it was officially "a full-fledged nuclear power that has been possessed of the most powerful inter-continental ballistic rocket capable of hitting any part of the world". The ICBM  would enable the country to "put an end to the US nuclear war threat and blackmail" and defend the Korean peninsula, it added.

In a statement the North"s Academy of Defense Science, which developed the missile, said it reached an altitude of 2,802 kilometres and flew 933 kilometres, calling it the "final gate to rounding off the state nuclear force".  In practical terms, unlike previous missile launches, yesterday"s test carried particular significance becuse it was the first time the rogue nation had demonstrated missile technology capable of hitting the continental United States.

But despite all the tough talk from Trump, as Reuters points out today, his administration has four basic options for dealing with North Korea: diplomacy, sanctions, covert action and military force...unfortunately, they"re all bad options.

Diplomacy:

As Reuters notes, the Obama administration tried to pursue a diplomatic solution in February 2012 but it only took about 2 months for North Korea to violate the terms of the agreement. 

There have been no official negotiations for seven years. In February 2012, the United States and North Korea announced an agreement in which the North would suspend operations of its Yongbyon uranium enrichment plant, allow international inspectors to verify the suspension, and implement moratoriums on nuclear and long-range missile tests.

In return, North Korea would get badly needed food aid.

In April of that year, the North attempted to launch a satellite on a three-stage rocket, in what Washington said was a violation of the agreement because of the rocket"s potential military uses. While Pyongyang denied it had breached the agreement, the deal was suspended.

Something tells us that Kim Jong Un would only be interested in "negotiating" after he"s developed his "big stick," which would render those negotiations pointless.

Sanctions:

North Korea is already among the most heavily sanctioned nations, facing numerous strictures to limit its ability to conduct commerce, participate in international finance and trade in weapons and other contraband.  That said, so long as China is unwilling to fully participate in those sanctions they will continue to be ineffective.

Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter. So much for China working with us - but we had to give it a try!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 5, 2017

Covert Action:

Here again, efforts to covertly disable the regime"s nuclear program have failed as a result of North Korea"s "utter secrecy and extreme isolation."

The United States, with help from Israel, temporarily set back Iran"s nuclear program via a computer virus called Stuxnet, which destroyed thousands of centrifuges used to enrich uranium.

The United States tried, but failed, to deploy a version of the Stuxnet virus to attack North Korea"s nuclear weapons program in 2009 and 2010, Reuters reported in 2015.

One former high-ranking intelligence official briefed on the program said the effort was stymied by North Korea"s utter secrecy and extreme isolation of its communications systems.

That same secrecy is responsible for what U.S. officials have consistently described as limited U.S. intelligence about the North Korean government"s inner workings.

Military Force:

Military options available to the Trump administration range from a sea blockade aimed at enforcing sanctions to cruise missile strikes on nuclear and missile facilities to a broader campaign aimed at overthrowing leader Kim Jong Un.

But, as U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis recently warned, the consequences of any military action would be "tragic on an unbelievable scale" and would likely result in heavy casualties in South Korea and potentially even Japan...risks which Trump himself acknowledged over Twitter yesterday:

North Korea has
just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do
with his life? Hard to believe that South Korea.....

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 4, 2017

....and Japan
will put up with this much longer. Perhaps China will put a heavy move
on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 4, 2017

The only question now is whether the time for talk and half measures has come to an end?

“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences." - Winton Churchill

North Korea Blows Up US Carrier, Capitol In Propaganda Video

Earlier today, Vladimir Putin warned that "the situation in Korea is deteriorating" and joined China in urging all sides to "avoid belligerent rhetoric." It was not clear what spooked the Russian president to escalate the rhetoric over North Korea, however in a move that will hardly help deescalate tensions, a North Korean propaganda outlet released a video clip on Thursday, which showed a simulated attack on the White House and declaring that “the enemy to be destroyed is in our sights.”

The video was released just days after North Korea conducted large-scale artillery drills, showing off conventional weaponry that can easily reach South Korea’s capital, Seoul. It also comes one day after the entire Senate was gathered at the White House to receive a briefing from Trump"s top generals on the situation in North Korea. At the same time, the US sub, USS Michigan, which carries Tomahawk cruise missiles, docked in the South Korean port of Busan this week. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier, along with the destroyers and cruiser that make up its strike group, will arrive in the Korean Peninsula area this weekend.

The clip was released by a North Korean website (Meari, or Echo) showing photos of the White House and aircraft carriers with a target on them, as if they are in the crosshair, the WaPo reported earlier. It then showed simulated footage of an aircraft carrier exploding into flames, with the caption: “When the enemy takes the first step toward provocation and invasion.”

The 2½ -minute video included scenes from the huge military parade that North Korea organized April 15 to mark the anniversary of the birth of the state’s founder, Kim Il Sung. It also showed footage of North Korean artillery and missile launches.

Against the backdrop of missile launches, the caption read: “We will show you what a strong country that leads the world in nuclear and missile technology is capable of.”

A similar video, showing missiles arcing over the Pacific and leaving a U.S. city in flames, followed by images of a burning American flag and a cemetery filled with white crosses, was shown during a concert held April 16 and attended by Kim.

While North Korea is best known for its bombastic rhetoric and exaggerated propaganda, in recent weeks it has ramped up its output as tensions have risen. On the other hand, the country has abstained from engaging in more missiles tests (either successful or otherwise) or nuclear bomb tests, prompting some to speculate whether the recent intervention by China may have impacted Kim"s behavior.

On the other hand, if indeed the US has managed to sabotage North Korea"s missile technology as the NYT alleged several months ago, and has launch control, what Kim wants may no longer be relevant and the only variable is having all key US military assets in place before a simulated war with North Korea becomes all too real.