Last week, Democrats and progressives who had once praised the company for promising to eradicate “fake news” on its platform were outraged by revelations that it had sold at least $100,000 in advertising to a Russian troll farm – an allegation that Facebook had initially denied when it first surfaced in the spring. Lawmakers, including Democratic Senator Mark Warner demanded more information from the company, even speculating that Congress may need to pass legislation to “protect Americans” from malicious foreigners dedicated to subverting the American Democratic process by…purchasing targeted ads.
Now, ProPublica is reporting that Facebook"s advertising algorithms inadvertently created a series of targeted-ad categories directed at anti-semites and racists. To test if these ad categories were real, ProPublica paid $30 to target those groups with three “promoted posts” — in which a ProPublica article or post was displayed in their news feeds. Facebook approved all three ads within 15 minutes.
“Last week, acting on a tip, we logged into Facebook’s automated ad system to see if “Jew hater” was really an ad category. We found it, but discovered that the category — with only 2,274 people in it — was too small for Facebook to allow us to buy an ad pegged only to Jew haters.
Facebook’s automated system suggested “Second Amendment” as an additional category that would boost our audience size to 119,000 people, presumably because its system had correlated gun enthusiasts with anti-Semites.
Instead, we chose additional categories that popped up when we typed in “jew h”: “How to burn Jews,” and “History of ‘why jews ruin the world.’” Then we added a category that Facebook suggested when we typed in “Hitler”: a category called “Hitler did nothing wrong.” All were described as “fields of study.”
Now, the company’s advertising business is facing another scandal. According to ProPublica, the world’s largest social network enabled advertisers to direct their pitches to the news feeds of almost 2,300 people who expressed interest in the topics of “Jew hater,” “How to burn jews,” or, “History of ‘why jews ruin the world.’”
The company had continued with the targeted pitches until earlier this week, when ProPublica reporters shared their findings with Facebook’s communications team.
“Until this week, when we asked Facebook about it, the world’s largest social network enabled advertisers to direct their pitches to the news feeds of almost 2,300 people who expressed interest in the topics of “Jew hater,” “How to burn jews,” or, “History of ‘why jews ruin the world.’”
Unsurprisingly, the company blamed the anti-Semitic ads on one of its algorithms and promised to fix the problem and make sure it never happens again.
“There are times where content is surfaced on our platform that violates our standards,” said Rob Leathern, product management director at Facebook. “In this case, we’ve removed the associated targeting fields in question. We know we have more work to do, so we’re also building new guardrails in our product and review processes to prevent other issues like this from happening in the future.”
Most internet users prefer to conveniently ignore how platforms like Facebook and Google can afford to provide so many free services while still operating profitable businesses.
Of course, they’ve managed to do this by dominating the global market for advertising. Facebook and Google essentially hoover up user data and feed it through to their algorithms, which perform complicated analyses to help develop a users’ demographic profile. The company’s platform then uses this information to target advertisements that might be more relevant to their interests. The purported efficacy of these tactics has allowed Facebook to muscle out traditional purveyors of advertising – like media companies – with whom it is now attempting to formulate an uneasy partnership.
Following the attack in Charlottesville, Va. last month, when a young woman was killed and dozens were injured after an Ohio man who had attended a White Nationalist rally on the campus of the University of Virginia rammed his car onto a crowd of counter-protesters.
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrote at the time that “there is no place for hate in our community” and promised to purge such speech from Facebook.
“It’s a disgrace that we still need to say that neo-Nazis and white supremacists are wrong - as if this is somehow not obvious,” he wrote.
But, as ProPublica points out, the company, while it may have deleted a some questionable posts, it didn’t apply any scrutiny to its ad-buying platform. The ad categories that ProPublica spotted were likely generated after scraping data from profiles featuring anti-Semitic themes - either as an interest, an employer or a “field of study.” Facebook’s algorithm automatically transforms people’s declared interests into advertising categories.
ProPublica has been scrutinizing Facebook’s advertising business for years. Last year, it collected a list of 29,000 ad categories from Facebook’s ad system — and found categories ranging from an interest in “Hungarian sausages” to “People in households that have an estimated household income of between $100K and $125K.”
The report didn"t appear to have much of an impact on the company"s share price, which was flat in early trading.
Tech companies’ advertising businesses are generating billions of dollars in revenue, and yet – as the ProPublica investigation demonstrates – there’s little transparency surrounding how the Facebooks, Amazons and Googles of the world repurpose user data for commercial purposes.
Perhaps when he is done cracking just how an (allegedly) Russian $100,000 ad campaign changed the course of US election history. Mark Warner can look into this.
ESPN President John Skipper should probably lookup the meaning of "primum non nocere." Medical school students all across the country are taught this Latin phrase, meaning "first, do no harm," on their first day of classes as a reminder that, given any problem, their first priority should be to simply not make it worse than it already is.
Unfortunately, Skipper doesn"t seem to subscribe to this theory because if he did he would realize that sometimes the best way to address a controversy that never should have happened is simply to keep your mouth shut and "do no further harm." Alas, Skipper"s clearly not a doctor and thus we"re all stuck having to read another statement from ESPN attempted to explain why they made a truly moronic decision.
Here"s the new statement in which ESPN now makes it seem as if it wasn"t actually their decision to pull Robert Lee off the air in Virginia, but rather Lee"s decision intended to avoid "social media hectoring and trolling"....
"Given the amount of media attention being generated by on of the countless, routine decisions our local production teams make every day, I wanted to make sure you have the facts. There was never any concern - by anyone, at any level - that Robert Lee"s name would offend anyone watching the Charlottesville game.
Among our Charlotte production staff there was a question as to whether - in these divisive times -- Robert"s assignment might create a distraction, or even worse, expose him to social media hectoring and trolling. Since Robert was their primary concern, they consulted with him directly. He expressed some personal trepidation about the assignment and, when offered the chance to do the Youngstown State / Pitt game instead, opted for that game -- in part because he lives in Albany and would be able to get home to his family on Saturday evening.
I"m disappointed that the good intentions of our Charlotte colleagues have been intentionally hijacked by someone with a personal agenda, and sincerely appreciate Robert"s personal input and professionalism throughout this episode."
Of course, Skipper"s new statement, which makes it seems as if the decision was all Lee"s idea, somewhat contradicts ESPN"s original statement that said it just "felt right to all parties."
“We collectively made the decision with Robert to switch games as the tragic events in Charlottesville were unfolding, simply because of the coincidence of his name. In that moment it felt right to all parties. It’s a shame that this is even a topic of conversation and we regret that who calls play by play for a football game has become an issue.”
Skipper, do us all a favor and read the first sentence of this post again...
* * *
For those who managed to ignore this story line so far, below is our post from yesterday.
We"ve been saying this a lot lately, but just when you thought the political climate in this country couldn"t get any more wacky ESPN has to go and pull an Asian-American announcer, who just happens to be named Robert Lee, off the William and Mary vs. University of Virginia college football game because of concerns they might create a mass-triggering of America"s snowflakes.
Is this even real life anymore? So the fragile millennial culture now demands that you should be thrown in jail if you call them by the wrong pronoun but it"s totally fine if their insecurities literally derail a person"s career because they refuse to be "assaulted" by the name his parents happened to give him?
In a story that seems made for The Onion, but is actually true, according to multiple Outkick fans inside ESPN MSESPN decided to pull an Asian college football announcer named Robert Lee off the William and Mary at University of Virginia college football game because they were concerned that having an ASIAN FOOTBALL ANNOUNCER NAMED ROBERT LEE would be offensive to some viewers.
Did I mention that Robert Lee is Asian?
Is this even real life anymore? This might even be worse than MSESPN apologizing for the fantasy football slave draft a couple of weeks ago.
To avoid offending left wing idiots Robert Lee, the Asian college football announcer, not the Confederate General who died in 1870 and shares a name with him, was switched to the Youngstown State at Pittsburgh game and Dave Weekley will now call the William and Mary at University of Virginia game.
Meanwhile, ESPN issued the following statement:
“We collectively made the decision with Robert to switch games as the tragic events in Charlottesville were unfolding, simply because of the coincidence of his name. In that moment it felt right to all parties. It’s a shame that this is even a topic of conversation and we regret that who calls play by play for a football game has become an issue.”
Not surprisingly, ESPN has been mercilessly mocked on social media for their truly moronic decision as #RobertLee quickly shot to the top of Twitter"s trending board.
Irony /??r?n?/ noun
1. Punishing an Asian-American for his last name out of fear of racism.#RobertLee
Of course, ESPN may be a little sensitive to race issues after being blasted all last week for hosting a fantasy football auction that many people likened to a slave auction...
We"ve been saying this a lot lately, but just when you thought the political climate in this country couldn"t get any more wacky ESPN has to go and pull an Asian-American announcer, who just happens to be named Robert Lee, off the William and Mary vs. University of Virginia college football game because of concerns they might create a mass-triggering of America"s snowflakes.
Is this even real life anymore? So the fragile millennial culture now demands that you should be thrown in jail if you call them by the wrong pronoun but it"s totally fine if their insecurities literally derail a person"s career because they refuse to be "assaulted" by the name his parents happened to give him?
In a story that seems made for The Onion, but is actually true, according to multiple Outkick fans inside ESPN MSESPN decided to pull an Asian college football announcer named Robert Lee off the William and Mary at University of Virginia college football game because they were concerned that having an ASIAN FOOTBALL ANNOUNCER NAMED ROBERT LEE would be offensive to some viewers.
Did I mention that Robert Lee is Asian?
Is this even real life anymore? This might even be worse than MSESPN apologizing for the fantasy football slave draft a couple of weeks ago.
To avoid offending left wing idiots Robert Lee, the Asian college football announcer, not the Confederate General who died in 1870 and shares a name with him, was switched to the Youngstown State at Pittsburgh game and Dave Weekley will now call the William and Mary at University of Virginia game.
Meanwhile, ESPN issued the following statement:
“We collectively made the decision with Robert to switch games as the tragic events in Charlottesville were unfolding, simply because of the coincidence of his name. In that moment it felt right to all parties. It’s a shame that this is even a topic of conversation and we regret that who calls play by play for a football game has become an issue.”
Not surprisingly, ESPN has been mercilessly mocked on social media for their truly moronic decision as #RobertLee quickly shot to the top of Twitter"s trending board.
Irony /??r?n?/ noun
1. Punishing an Asian-American for his last name out of fear of racism.#RobertLee
Of course, ESPN may be a little sensitive to race issues after being blasted all last week for hosting a fantasy football auction that many people likened to a slave auction...
Update: A state of emergency has been declared for Charlottesville due to the fighting, clashes and "chaos" at the rally. Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe declared a state of emergency in the city to aid in the local response. He earlier said the Virginia National Guard will be "standing by to respond if needed."
The city and county issued a declaration of local emergency for Charlottesville city and county, when the scene turned violent well before the "Unite the Right" rally, scheduled for noon, officially began. The city said two people were treated for serious but non-life-threatening emergencies from altercations by 10:30 a.m. Counter-protesters also flooded the area to demonstrate their disdain for the protesters" message.
Fighting has broken out at a ‘Unite the Right’ rally in Charlottesville, Virginia between right-wing protesters demonstrating against the removal of a Confederate-era statue from Emancipation Park, and various groups of counter demonstrators. The rally also aimed to protest against Charlottesville"s decision to rename downtown Lee Park, now called Emancipation Park, besides the statue removal.
Some 2,000 to 6,000 people are expected to attend the rally, which is expected to be one of the largest far-right gatherings in the U.S. in at least a decade.
The Unite the Right rally aims to “unify the right-wing against a totalitarian Communist crackdown” and “affirm the right of Southerners and white people to organize for their interests just like any other group is able to do.”
Among the protesters were spotted both nazi flags...
The clashes come a day after hundreds of white marchers carrying torches clashed briefly with counterprotesters on the Charlottesville campus of the University of Virginia on Friday, the eve of a rally planned by thousands of "far-right nationalists". The marchers chanted as made their way from Nameless Field through the sprawling campus to the school"s Thomas Jefferson statue, where they were met by counterprotesters, an affiliate of NBC news said.
At least one person was arrested and several on campus were treated for minor injuries, the Daily Progress newspaper said. "I am beyond disgusted by this unsanctioned and despicable display of visual intimidation on a college campus," Mayor Mike Singer said in a statement.
One clip posted on Twitter showed various armed members of an unidentified militia arriving at Emancipation Park carrying guns and rifles.
According to Reuters, the events highlight a persistent debate in the U.S. South over the display of the Confederate battle flag and other symbols of the rebel side in the Civil War, fought over the issue of slavery. Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe has said extremist groups have threatened to try and attack rally participants, to express opposition to the statue"s removal.
Supporters call such statues racially insensitive, while opponents say Confederate symbols honor Southern heritage, and calls to remove them reflect "empty political correctness."
Lee was a symbol for white people threatened by immigration and "ethnic cleansing," rally organizer and freelance journalist Jason Kessler said in an interview with Pennsylvania"s WHLM radio on Thursday.
Meanwhile, NBC notes that the National Guard is on standby, with Virginia State Police coordinating security in the city of 45,000, the governor said in a statement. "I want to urge my fellow Virginians, who may consider joining, either in support or opposition to the planned rally, to make alternative plans," McAuliffe said.
Just days after North Korea released Otto Warmbier after holding him hostage for 17 months, his family has just reported the sad news of his passing.
Warmbier was sentenced to 15 years in prison with hard labor in North Korea, convicted of subversion after he tearfully confessed he had tried to steal a propaganda banner.
The University of Virginia student was held for more than 17 months and medically evacuated from North Korea last week. Doctors said he returned with severe brain damage, but it wasn"t clear what caused it.
Family Statement:
It is our sad duty to report that our son, Otto Warmbier, has completed his journey home. Surrounded by his loving family, Otto died today at 2:20pm.
It would be easy at a moment like this to focus on all that we lost - future time that won"t be spent with a warm, engaging, brilliant young man whose curiosity and enthusiasm for life knew no bounds. But we choose to focus on the time we were given to be with this remarkable person. You can tell from the outpouring of emotion from the communities that he touched - Wyoming, Ohio and the University of Virginia to name just two - that the love for Otto went well beyond his immediate family. Otto went well beyond his immediate family.
We would like to thank the wonderful professionals at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center who did everything they could for Otto.
Unfortunately, the awful torturous mistreatment our son received at the hands of the North Koreans ensured that no other outcome was possible beyond the sad one we experienced today.
When Otto returned to Cincinnati late on June 13th he was unable to speak, unable to see and unable to react to verbal commands. He looked very uncomfortable - almost anguished. Although we would never hear his voice again, within a day the countenance of his face changed - he was at peace. He was home and we believe he could sense that.
We thank everyone around the world who has kept him and our family in their thoughts and prayers. We are at peace and at home too.
Fred & Cindy Warmbier and Family
Quoted by Bloomberg"s Jennifer Jacobs, on the death of Warmbier Trump said "at least he got home to his parents" and added: "It"s a brutal regime and we"ll be able to handle it." It"s unclear just how.
The White House"s full, just released statement is below;
THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 19, 2017
Statement by President Donald J. Trump on the Passing of Otto Warmbier
Melania and I offer our deepest condolences to the family of Otto Warmbier on his untimely passing. There is nothing more tragic for a parent than to lose a child in the prime of life. Our thoughts and prayers are with Otto"s family and friends, and all who loved him.
Otto"s fate deepens my Administration"s determination to prevent such tragedies from befalling innocent people at the hands of regimes that do not respect the rule of law or basic human decency. The United States once again condemns the brutality of the North Korean regime as we mourn its latest victim.
And here John McCain who wants to “state the facts plainly: Otto Warmbier, an American citizen, was murdered by the Kim Jong-un regime.”
For over 10 years now, we"ve been openly advocating that folks take action to become more prepared should crisis arrive. And for a long time, this advice relegated us to being labeled "tin-foil hat doomsday preppers" (and other less-polite monikers). The media just couldn"t figure out any other box to put us in.
But now, the concept of taking at least some responsibility for your own future well-being by increasing your self-reliance is finally moving towards the mainstream.
Of course, government agencies have long ascribed to "situational planning" in case sudden unrest were to happen. Nations around the world have long invested in redundant supply chains, as well as well-stocked disaster "continuity caves", fortresses and hardened facilities of all sorts.
It"s strikes us as puzzling that most private citizens fully expect their government to be prepared for disaster like this, yet don"t see similar wisdom in practicing a similar approach to preparation in their own life. In fact, many go so far as to denigrate and even mock their friends and neighbors who do.
Perhaps that gap between what"s considered acceptable in a public institution but not in a private home is best explained as abdication of personal responsibility. It happens a lot in our society. Live your life and let the government worry about the scary stuff. They"ll take care of us if something bad happens.
We think it"s a huge error in judgment (remember Katrina, anyone?), but we understand why it"s a convenient and comforting narrative to hold. Plus, it frees up a lot more time to shop at the big box stores and keep up on the Kardashians. Life"s more fun and stress-free...right up until some unexpected disruption occurs.
Well, we here at Peak Prosperity deeply believe in shouldering our own personal responsibility. And not just to protect our own private well-being, but also that of the communities we live in and depend on.
After all, Peak Prosperity"s mission is To create a world worth inheriting. You don"t do that simply waiting to see if the calvary is ever going to show up. You assume responsibility for your own destiny, and inspire others to do the same by offering your support and serving as a living model for others to emulate.
Those expecting/demanding the State to have high emergency preparedness while not practicing the same in their own lives lack integrity. Nobody respects a low-integrity person for very long. (Pro tip: Don’t fly your personal jet to give a lecture on the importance of addressing climate change.)
A resilient nation is built from the bottom up, starting with resilient households. Enough of those households creates resilient neighborhoods, and those in turn lead to resilient towns and cities. And then counties, and states -- you get the point.
So taking steps to be partially self-sufficient in the basics of life – food, warmth, shelter and water – and have useful experience or skills (medicine, fixing things, building, distilling, to name just a few) just makes sense. You don"t have to strive to be completely self-reliant -- it"s not realistic or necessary. Just position yourself to reduce your lifestyle requirements during times of strife, and to contribute valued support to those whom in turn you ask for help.
Preparing Is Rapidly Going Mainstream
For years now, I’ve written that the highly wealthy people whom I encounter through conferences, family offices and private consultations all got the “bug out” vibe after the 2008 crash, if not before. Today, many of them are more thoroughly prepped than us regular folks can imagine.
Disaster prepping is now acceptable enough that this week"s article in The New Yorker had no trouble finding high-profile executives to talk to on record. I couldn"t help noticing that the reporter avoided inferring that these folks were crazy, or implying as much. I guess once a critical mass of super wealthy tech entrepreneurs jumps on the bandwagon it’s suddenly hip to be a prepper?
At any rate, if you haven"t already seen the article, it"s a real eye-opener:
Doomsday Prep For The Super-Rich
Jan 30, 2017
Steve Huffman, the thirty-three-year-old co-founder and C.E.O. of Reddit, which is valued at six hundred million dollars, was nearsighted until November, 2015, when he arranged to have laser eye surgery. He underwent the procedure not for the sake of convenience or appearance but, rather, for a reason he doesn’t usually talk much about: he hopes that it will improve his odds of surviving a disaster, whether natural or man-made. “If the world ends—and not even if the world ends, but if we have trouble—getting contacts or glasses is going to be a huge pain in the ass,” he told me recently. “Without them, I’m fucked.”
Huffman, who lives in San Francisco, has large blue eyes, thick, sandy hair, and an air of restless curiosity; at the University of Virginia, he was a competitive ballroom dancer, who hacked his roommate’s Web site as a prank. He is less focused on a specific threat—a quake on the San Andreas, a pandemic, a dirty bomb—than he is on the aftermath, “the temporary collapse of our government and structures,” as he puts it. “I own a couple of motorcycles. I have a bunch of guns and ammo. Food. I figure that, with that, I can hole up in my house for some amount of time.”
Survivalism, the practice of preparing for a crackup of civilization, tends to evoke a certain picture: the woodsman in the tinfoil hat, the hysteric with the hoard of beans, the religious doomsayer. But in recent years survivalism has expanded to more affluent quarters, taking root in Silicon Valley and New York City, among technology executives, hedge-fund managers, and others in their economic cohort.
Last spring, as the Presidential campaign exposed increasingly toxic divisions in America, Antonio García Martínez, a forty-year-old former Facebook product manager living in San Francisco, bought five wooded acres on an island in the Pacific Northwest and brought in generators, solar panels, and thousands of rounds of ammunition. “When society loses a healthy founding myth, it descends into chaos,” he told me. The author of “Chaos Monkeys,” an acerbic Silicon Valley memoir, García Martínez wanted a refuge that would be far from cities but not entirely isolated. “All these dudes think that one guy alone could somehow withstand the roving mob,” he said. “No, you’re going to need to form a local militia. You just need so many things to actually ride out the apocalypse.”
Once he started telling peers in the Bay Area about his “little island project,” they came “out of the woodwork” to describe their own preparations, he said. “I think people who are particularly attuned to the levers by which society actually works understand that we are skating on really thin cultural ice right now.”
In private Facebook groups, wealthy survivalists swap tips on gas masks, bunkers, and locations safe from the effects of climate change. One member, the head of an investment firm, told me,“I keep a helicopter gassed up all the time, and I have an underground bunker with an air-filtration system.” He said that his preparations probably put him at the “extreme” end among his peers. But he added, “A lot of my friends do the guns and the motorcycles and the gold coins. That’s not too rare anymore.”
Tim Chang, a forty-four-year-old managing director at Mayfield Fund, a venture-capital firm, told me, “There’s a bunch of us in the Valley. We meet up and have these financial-hacking dinners and talk about backup plans people are doing. It runs the gamut from a lot of people stocking up on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, to figuring out how to get second passports if they need it, to having vacation homes in other countries that could be escape havens.” He said, “I’ll be candid: I’m stockpiling now on real estate to generate passive income but also to have havens to go to.” He and his wife, who is in technology, keep a set of bags packed for themselves and their four-year-old daughter. He told me, “I kind of have this terror scenario: ‘Oh, my God, if there is a civil war or a giant earthquake that cleaves off part of California, we want to be ready.’ ”
The message here is clear enough: The wealthy have caught onto the idea that the probability of a major social disruption is high enough to merit serious action.
Prepping is now becoming “a thing.”
And that makes it increasingly OK to talk about in the open. That"s a great development; we at Peak Prosperity have been waiting for this milestone for a decade now. But it comes with a cost: the more people who awaken to the risks we face, the faster the peaceful complacency society has slumbered in will dissipate.
From here it’s only a hop, skip and a jump for the newly-awake to start losing faith in our debt-based fiat money system and the massive unsustainability of the economy built on top of it. As our readers know very well, once you understand how these systems are structured, it"s hard not be shocked by their fragility (not to mention their deep unfairness).
For example, our food distribution system relies on a lot of moving, integrated parts. If any one of these breaks down, the shipment of food (and pharmaceuticals, and many other components of daily life) simply stops. Cities only have about 3 days" worth of inventory at any given time. Should a shock occur to the system, even a minor one like a winter blizzard, supply can dwindle out in a matter of hours as people scramble to get what they can.
Here’s an image of shelves at a Wal-Mart in Charlotte NC taken as a relatively minor snow storm was approaching the area on January 6th 2017.
The line between “well stocked” and “stripped bare” is merely a matter of public awareness. Once people become worried about the possibility of scarcity, their mad scramble to hoard what they can actually creates the very scarcity they dear. That"s because our system is deliberately run on a just-in-time basis, in order to maximize profit. Excess inventory incurs storage fees; so we "optimize" our supply chains to avoid it. But it begs the question: perhaps the human suffering costs of quickly running out of essentials during an emergency is higher than the dollars saved by keeping inventory levels minimal?
Our fractional reserve banking is structured the same way: it only works if everyone doesn’t show up at the same time demanding to withdraw their money. If that ever happens, there isn"t nearly enough supply for everyone. Once the illusion is exposed, then people get panicky and start grouping into angy mobs
Think it can"t happen here? Just talk to folks in India. Two months ago they would have agreed with you. Today, the most they are allowed to withdraw for their bank is a few hundred dollars worth of banknotes per week. Here"s a video of a run on a bank there where the swaming masses quickly stampede over the security guards, trampling elderly patrons in the process:
And it"s even worse in Venezuela. There, the limit is US$5 per day. If you had US10,000 of savings in the bank, at that rate, it would take you 5 and half years to withdraw it all.
Playing the Odds
Of course, most truly catastrophic events are quite rare. Rather than worry about them, it usually makes sense to simply ignore these tail risks and carry on with your life.
I do this rather than stress out about a large asteroid impact or a Yellowstone supervolcano eruption. While either of these *could* happen in my lifetime, the odds are incredibly low and there’s virtually nothing I can do to prepare for or predict such an event. So I don’t even try.
Other potential threats to our well-being, however, have much higher probabilities. And yet, most people are quite content to ignore the need to prepare, no matter how high the risks. Few people maintain a deep pantry, which is why the store shelves invariably get stripped as a big storm rolls into town. And only a small minority of people living along California"s active fault lines have put together a well-stock earthquake kit.
But more cadres of thinkers are embracing the wisdom of investing in an ounce of prevention today. In the New Yorker article, the techies from Silicon Valley seem more inclined to ‘do the math’ and follow logic:
Yishan Wong, an early Facebook employee, was the C.E.O. of Reddit from 2012 to 2014. He, too, had eye surgery for survival purposes, eliminating his dependence, as he put it, “on a nonsustainable external aid for perfect vision.” In an e-mail, Wong told me, “Most people just assume improbable events don’t happen, but technical people tend to view risk very mathematically.”
He continued, “The tech preppers do not necessarily think a collapse is likely. They consider it a remote event, but one with a very severe downside, so, given how much money they have, spending a fraction of their net worth to hedge against this . . . is a logical thing to do.”
As we"ve advised for years, even if something has a low probability, if it"s result would be catastrophic, then buy insurance if you can. Prepping for a major "grid-down" power outage is simply a no-brainer for those who have decent math skills. The calculation is eminently rational, as there a number of potential causal factors (weather, sabotage, squirrel) and the downside could be quite large.
So, with all the potential looming risks out there -- economic shock, social disorder, supply chain failure, to name just a few -- what are practical, affordable, achievable steps a prudent person should take?
In Part 2: Preparing Prudently, we present a specific list of the most useful preparations, along with links to helpful resources and services for carrying them out. Nearly anyone can implement these, and nearly everyone should. The more of us who prepare wisely today, the more of us who will be in a position to be of service when the next crisis arrives.
