Zimbabwe Military Says Mugabe Impeachment Process Has Begun

Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe baffled his country and the world last night when, instead of publicly announcing his resignation, he reaffirmed his intention to stay on as the head of state in Zimbabwe, and admonished members of his ruling ZANU PF party for their “arbitrary decision making” and “victimization.”

Mugabe’s defiance immediately spurred conspiracy theories, including one where military commanders who flanked Mugabe during his speech smuggled him an alternate version following the review of his initial draft.

 

Y’all need to watch closely. They legit switched #RobertMugabe ‘s speech or did something hella fishy. Smh. #mugabe #Zimbabawe #kmt pic.twitter.com/twdrfMUZtt

— Loye Olatunbosun (@loyeloves) November 19, 2017

 

Rumors circulated that some ZANU PF lawmakers had fled the country to avoid participating in an impeachment vote, though they were later debunked, according to local media reports. Still, the military’s deadline for Mugabe’s resignation – initially set at noon local time on Monday – has come and gone, and Mugabe remains the nominal leader of Zimbabwe, even if he’s still under house arrest, according to BBC.

However, ZANU PF appears to be reaching the end of its patience with its long-time leader. In a media briefing, party member Paul Mangawana said Zimbabwe’s lawmakers will move to formally impeach Mugabe tomorrow, and that he could be formally removed from office as soon as Wednesday.

Discussions about the impeachment proceedings began Monday, Reuters added.

Reuters added that impeachment would represent an ignominious end to the career of the “Grand Old Man” of African politics, who was once lauded across the continent as an anti-colonial hero. Chief whip Lovemore Matuke told Reuters ZANU-PF members of parliament would meet at 1230 GMT to start mapping out Mugabe’s impeachment.

In the draft motion, the party accused Mugabe of being a “source of instability”, flouting the rule of law and presiding over an “unprecedented economic tailspin” in the last 15 years.

It also said he had abrogated his constitutional mandate by trying to position his unpopular wife, Grace, as his successor.

While the process of impeaching Mugabe looks complex on paper and involves a joint sitting of the Senate and National Assembly, then a nine-member committee of senators, then another joint sitting to confirm his dismissal with a two-thirds majority. However, constitutional experts said ZANU-PF had the numbers and could push it through in as little as 24 hours.

“They can fast-track it. It can be done in a matter of a day,” said John Makamure, executive director of the Southern African Parliamentary Support Trust, an NGO that works with the parliament in Harare.

A statement released Monday evening (local time) by Gen Chiwanga reaffirmed the military’s commitment to ensuring a peaceful transition of power.

 

A statement just released tonight by Gen. Chiwenga pic.twitter.com/UeVM9kh5U4

— Zim Media Review (@ZimMediaReview) November 20, 2017

 

One Zimbabwe lawmaker said there will be another caucus meeting for ZANU PF members beginning at 10 am local time Tuesday. It also noted that the President has called for a cabinet meeting. The MDCT, another party, will also be in caucus, while the president meets with his cabinet.

 

Tomorrow there will be another caucus meeting for ZANU PF at 10am, while at the same time the President has called for a cabinet meeting. The MDCT will be in caucus and I assure Zimbabwe that all MPs will put Zimbabwe First

— Hon. Temba P. Mliswa (@TembaMliswa) November 20, 2017

 

However, ZANU PF"s chief whip said that if Mugabe calls a cabinet meeting, no ministers will attend.

 

President Robert Gabriel Mugabe & Vice President Grace Mugabe arrived at Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport, awaiting flight on Robert Gabriel Mugabe Airways after an afternoon capping graduands at Robert Gabriel Mugabe University situated along Robert Gabriel Mugabe Way

— Lance Guma (@LanceGuma) November 9, 2017

 

Despite the political upheaval – and the marches that occurred over the weekend – local media reported that people were going on with their lives, on their way to work, children were in class, vendors were on the streets and taxis were meandering through the streets of Harare.

However, while the demonstrations were peaceful, tanks were strategically positioned at Mugabe"s office and other key government institutions, a clear indication that the standoff is far from over.
 

Venezuela Bans Magazines From Publishing Photos Of Women In Bikinis

While Venezuela’s embattled government struggles with the fallout from being declared officially in default by ISDA after delaying a principal payment on the Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, bond that matured Nov. 2, its Supreme Court has been busy robbing the country’s downtrodden public one of the few small pleasures still available in a country that has been deprived of seemingly every necessity, from food to medicine.

Local media reported that Venezuela’s Supreme Court on Friday ruled that magazines that circulate to the general public can no longer feature images of scantily clad women on their covers.

The decree specifically mentions “pornographic” content, yet includes many mainstream magazines: According to the court, “images of nude or partially nude women in compromising and suggestive poses that stimulate sexual arousal for commercial ends” are now banned from magazines, regardless of whether the photos are editorial content, or found in advertisements.

 

Foto contraportada diario Meridiano hoy 16 de agosto. Mil gracias a Edgar Àlfaro por la deferencia. Es para ustedes pic.twitter.com/rXBQOtct5o

— Merineth Vegas (@MerinethVegas) August 16, 2013

 

The decision was a response to a complaint filed by a citizen against weekly sports publication El Heraldo, a subsidiary of 6° Poder. The complaint requested that the government prohibit the “publication of any example, be it digital or printed, including private subscriptions, of images with sexual content … whether it be by way of a photograph, other image, advertisements or links that could be accessed by children and young people."

The court claimed that when such images go public, the publishers aren’t aware of their responsibilities as “media outlets in society to transmit appropriate content” seen by both adults and children.

This ruling directly affects the country’s primary publications Meridiano and Líder, both of which make use of images of women in bathing suits on their covers.

“These types of sexual images don’t come with a warning, which could bring about negative consequences with respect to people’s baser instincts, and thereby put at risk the constitutional rights of the most vulnerable, namely children and young people,” the court’s ruling continues.

Venezuela’s Supreme Court has regularly kowtowed to the whims of the Maduro government, most famously when it certified a Maduro-approved directive to disband the country’s Congress, a ruling that led to the successful (if rigged) referendum vote to create a new National Assembly to help Maduro change the country’s Constitution to cement his long-term grip on power - and marginalize political dissidents who have been rallying in the streets of the country’s cities for months.

Venezuela’s economy has been locked in a vicious downward spiral after falling oil prices and years of mismanagement by Maduro and his predecessor, President Hugo Chavez have spurred inflation rates above 2,000%.

Given these endemic economic troubles, it would appear women in bikinis are the least of the societal ills plaguing Latin America’s favorite Socialist Paradise.
 

Rand Tumbles After South African President Zuma Survives "No Confidence" Vote

National assembly speaker (and purported replacement) Baleka Mbete"s secret no-confidence vote has failed to oust South African President Zuma.

Speaker of Parliament Baleka Mbete shocked South Africans Monday when she announced her decision to allow the vote to proceed on a secret ballot, which would allow party members to vote against their leader outside the public spotlight.

"I understand and accept that a motion of no confidence in the president is a very important matter, a potent tool toward holding the president to account," she said at a press briefing Monday in Cape Town. She did not take questions from reporters.

The no confidence vote, she said, "constitutes one of the severest political consequences imaginable" and her decision to allow the vote to proceed anonymously is "about putting the resilience of our democratic institution to test."

Mbete needed 201 votes (Zuma"s ANC dominates the Parliament with 249 out of 400 seats and so for the motion to pass, at least 50 party members would have to defect to the opposition - something that has never happened before in a party that defeated South Africa"s apartheid system and is known for its loyalty).

However, some have argued that the number is lower. If the need arises, National Assembly will seek legal opinion on whether majority in no-confidence motion on President Jacob Zuma is based on number of seats in assembly or if vacancies in NA should be subtracted, Speaker Baleka Mbete tells lawmakers in Cape Town.

• Mbete says simple majority to be calculated as 201, or 50% plus one seat of 400 seats in National Assembly.


• Democratic Alliance, which is the main opposition party, argues seats should exclude 5 vacancies, which takes total number of seats to 395 and lowers majority needed to pass the motion

South African lawmakers began to cast their votes at 1043am ET (ZAR had leaked very modestly lower into the start of the vote).

Voting finished at 1150ET and the count began (as lawmakers squabbled over constitutional details).

Counting finished at 1235ET. ZAR dropped on the riging on the 5-minute warning bells.

The result:

Motion of no confidence in South African President Jacob Zuma was defeated by 198 votes against 177 supporting it, Baleka Mbete, the speaker of the National Assembly, announces at a sitting in Cape Town.

9 of the 384 members in the assembly, where the ANC has a 62% majority, abstained

The reaction is clear... The Rand tumbled...

Zuma will now retain his position as ANC president until his tenure ends in December. His term as president of the country runs through 2019.

ANC STATEMENT ON VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY #NoConfidence #ZumaVote #SecretBallot pic.twitter.com/kNVTdMS24n

— Year of OR Tambo (@MYANC) August 8, 2017

Venezuela's Demise Is A Geopolitical Litmus Test For The U.S.

Authored by Grgeory  Copley via OilPrice.com,

Is Venezuela’s 2017 transformation symptomatic of the growing global polarization? And does it show how the collapse of globalism is resulting in the re-emergence of a range of governmental forms which no longer even need to acknowledge “Western-style” democracy? 

Are we seeing the revival of a bloc of pre-Westphalian nation-states with major power support? 

That is, societies which are not based on the balanced, nation-state concept which evolved from the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. Westphalian-style states have come to mean nation-states which married entire societies and leaderships to their geography and were imbued with legitimacy because of the relationships — tacit, historical, or electoral — between the societies and their governance. In shorthand terms: Westphalianism implies sovereignty underpinned by legitimacy. The term “pre-Westphalian”, used here for the first time, implies a form of despotism (control of a population without its consent); a lack of the rule of laws agreed by the society, and therefore a lack of structure (and therefore sovereignty) as recognized by its own population.

Some trends are emerging which show how different the 21st Century global strategic architecture will be from the 20th. The present Venezuelan Government has abandoned even a pretense of adherence to what the West calls democracy. For some states, a return to autocracy is seen as the only avenue to escape total loss of power by governing élites, even though history has demonstrated how fragile and vulnerable such power structures can quickly become. 

Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro’s stage-managed July 30, 2017, “election” of a new National Constituent Assembly may have set the paradigm for how governments in the emerging post-democratic world can sustain nation-states which owe nothing to the global order. It is not a new model, and it may not endure. But it is a model which has some chance of survival (with little economic success) in a world in which major powers find it inconvenient or difficult to intervene against such states. Or if there are no pressures to overturn major power disinterest. 

In this instance, the declining power of Venezuela’s petroleum exports not only damage the internal economy (given that 95 percent of the nation’s foreign exchange is earned from oil), it limits Venezuela’s importance as either partner or target for foreign powers. 

The Venezuelan election swept away any pretense that Mr. Maduro’s Government would now be recognized internationally on any other grounds than the fact that it physically controlled the territory of the Venezuelan State.

The July 30, 2017, “election” — the “near-final act” in dispensing with a National Assembly controlled by opponents of Pres. Maduro’s United Socialist Party (PSUV: Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela) — was contrived to return all power, but not necessarily legitimacy, to the PSUV. This was foreseeable when the Supreme Court announced on March 29, 2017, that it was assuming the functions of the National Assembly. The Court reversed that finding three days later, but the process of bypassing the Assembly had begun to take root in Mr Maduro’s mind. 

The imposition of top-down control - suppression - of a society is, however, expensive, and requires an effective system to remove weapons and opportunity for dissent from internal opponents.

Pres. Maduro is yet to demonstrate that he has achieved that level of control.

Arguably, in the United States of America, the attempts by the Administration of Pres. Barack Obama (2009-17) to remove weapons and ammunition from the general public actually stimulated the voter base to reject his ideals and those of his chosen successor in the 2016 Presidential election. 

It is probable that the Venezuelan opposition, already restive and growing in confidence before the July 30, 2017, “election”, would become further emboldened and could act with a greater sense of urgency than before. US Government-imposed sanctions on key PSUV leaders further strengthened opposition resolve. Opposition groups not only challenged the legitimacy of replacing the National Assembly without a mandate to do so, but became emboldened by plausible allegations that the voting was rigged on July 30, apart from the opposition boycott of the event. 

UK-based Smartmatic, a software company which had set up voting systems in Venezuela, said in a company statement on August 1, 2017, that “without any doubt” the voting results had been altered by “at least” a million votes. Moreover, voters were never given the option of rejecting the plan to replace the National Assembly with the Constituent Assembly. The new Assembly theoretically has the power to dismiss any branch of government, including the National Assembly. The National Electoral Council’s claim that almost 8.1-million people (more than 40 percent of the electorate) had voted was rejected not only by Smartmatic, but by Venezuelan opposition leaders. There was no international monitoring in place. 

Smartmatic was the voting machine company established by Venezuelans under the late Pres. Hugo Chávez to provide the Chávez Government with its own sense of confidence that it could control the outcome of elections. And now Smartmatic has turned on Pres. Chávez’ designated successor. Smartmatic will now need to distance itself from its Venezuelan roots. 

The voter count discrepancy may only be relevant to the degree that it fuels internal and external indignation and action.

At a broader level, several outcomes and indicators are significant:

Venezuela’s economy will continue its downward spiral, fueling population outflow and the ac-tivities of major armed insurrectionist factions internally, probably with external sponsors;

International recognition of and trade with Venezuela will contract, but some governments (People’s Republic of China, Iran, Cuba, Turkey, etc.) may take the opportunity to develop a separate trading framework to include Venezuela. This could include a number of Caribbean states which have been induced to work closely with the PRC and against the US. This will gal-vanize US attention to act against some of the smaller PRC allies in the area, particularly Domi-nica;

The creation of a “non-Western” trading system will be significantly influenced by the degree of success Venezuela has in surviving internal dissent and US-led Western sanctions.

Venezuela’s situation highlights the degree to which the US has lost influence in the Americas. So this is where it is being challenged, and why Venezuela is a significant test case.

Venezuelans Are Now Paying 1000 Times More For US Dollars Than They Did In 2010

The hyperinflationary-hell in Venezuela’s currency is deepening as a crippling dollar shortage and a threat of oil sanctions (amid President Maduro"s attempts to rewrite the constition to maintain his grip on power) take their toll on the economy.

Venezuela’s Latin American neighbors urged President Nicolas Maduro to refrain from actions that might exacerbate the country’s political crisis in a disappointment to some regional governments that favored more direct and forceful criticism. As Bloomberg reports, Mercosur, South America’s largest trade bloc, called on “the government and the opposition not to carry out any initiative that could divide further Venezuelan society or aggravate institutional conflicts,” in a joint statement issued at the end of a summit in Mendoza, Argentina. Member countries Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay were joined by Chile, Colombia, Guyana and Mexico in signing the statement.

International condemnation of the Maduro government’s plan to rewrite the country’s constitution to maintain its hold on power is gathering pace after the U.S. said it would impose sanctions on Venezuelan officials if Maduro goes ahead.

As we noted earlier in the week, The Trump administration is mulling over sanctions against senior Venezuelan government officials, and additional measures could include sanctions against the country’s oil industry, such as halting imports into the U.S., according to senior Washington officials who spoke to media.

The goal of the sanctions is to prevent the Nicolas Maduro government from having things its way at a July 30 election for a Constituent Assembly that, the U.S. administration believes, would serve to cement Maduro’s power and turn Venezuela into a “full dictatorship.”

The Constitutional Assembly vote was proposed by the government as a means of tackling the political crisis that Venezuela slid into last year, after the election of a new parliament where the opposition had a majority that put it at odds with the government. A Constituent Assembly can rewrite the country’s constitution, and many observers see the move as an attempt to strengthen the current regime’s hold on power.

After months of often violent protests, the opposition has now called a 24-hour national strike after conducting an unofficial referendum that, Al Jazeera reports, suggested overwhelming opposition to the idea of voting for a Constituent Assembly and equally overwhelming support for transparent parliamentary elections.

And as protests escalate and international pressure builds, the black market price for dollars in Bolivars has gone vertical. In fact, Venezuelans are now paying 1000 times more for a US dollar than they were in 2010...

Visualized a little differently, as Bloomberg notes, the black-market rate for the bolivar traded weaker than 8,700 per dollar for the first time, according to dolartoday.com on Friday, compared with the official rate of around 10 and a more widely used alternative rate of 2,757.

In fact, the last 3 months have seen the currency collapse by 30% as the hyperinflationary endgame of socialist utopias once again ends in bloodshed and a nation torn apart...

As AP reports, thousands are gathering in the Venezuelan capital for a march toward the embattled nation"s Supreme Court in an escalating push to stop President Nicolas Maduro from proceeding with his plans to rewrite the constitution.

The opposition is calling on frustrated Venezuelans to take to the streets to support a slate of Supreme Court judges appointed by the National Assembly on Friday but quickly rejected by the government-stacked court.

Organizers hope Saturday"s protest in Caracas will be one of the largest before a scheduled July 30 election for a special assembly to rewrite Venezuela"s charter. Maduro is facing mounting international pressure to cancel the controversial vote.

Nearly four months of anti-government protests have left at least 97 people dead, and thousands more have been injured or detained.

National guard troops in Venezuela"s capital have launched tear gas at protesters, clouds of white gas and rows of officers on motorcycles are blocking the demonstrators in Caracas.

The violent protests ate instigated from both sides (pro- and anti-Maduro), alleged supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stormed the opposition-controlled Venezuelan National Assembly in Caracas earlier this month, injuring several journalists and law makers in the process.

 

In a move aimed at proving a vision of a possible post-Maduro government, Bloomberg reports that Venezuela’s opposition-controlled National Assembly swore in 33 Supreme Court judges in a largely symbolic move as it protests President Nicolas Maduro’s plan to rewrite the constitution.

The existing Supreme Court, appointed by a previous assembly that supported the ruling socialist regime, has been the focus of protests over the past four months. It has sought to limit lawmakers’ power, and pre-emptively ruled today’s Congress session null. The standoff between the rival groups of jurists is likely to increase institutional instability in the country.

“The National Assembly has taken this important measure to signal the future of the country and to have a court that serves the people and not a political party,” Julio Borges, president of the National Assembly, told opposition deputies and spectators assembled in eastern Caracas.

“There won’t be true democracy until we have a strong court. A court without political colors, and where all Venezuelans are equal before the law”

About 7.5 million opposition supporters rejected Maduro’s plan in an unofficial referendum Sunday, and 24-hour strike paralyzed the country Thursday. The opposition is building on momentum as the July 30 vote to name members of a constitutional assembly vote approaches.

Maduro Thugs Storm Venezuela National Assembly, Beat Opposition Lawmakers, Default Risk Jumps

Venezuela celebrated 206 years of independence in a manner uniquely befitting Latin America’s socialist paradise: A gang of armed Maduro supporters broke into the National Assembly and viciously assaulted opposition lawmakers, nearly killing one.

Here’s Reuters:

“The melee, which injured seven opposition politicians, was another worrying flashpoint in a traumatic last three months for the South American OPEC nation, shaken by opposition protests against socialist President Nicolas Maduro.

Pipe-wielding government supporters burst into Venezuela"s opposition-controlled congress on Wednesday, witnesses said, attacking and besieging lawmakers in the latest flare-up of violence during a political crisis.

The melee, which injured seven opposition politicians, was another worrying flashpoint in a traumatic last three months for the South American OPEC nation, shaken by opposition protests against socialist President Nicolas Maduro.”

Mobs of anti-government protesters have been gathering daily in the streets of Caracas and other Venezuelan cities to protests Maduro’s intensifying crackdown on dissent. As is well known, government mismanagement in the country with the world"s biggest oil reserves has led to hyperinflation of over 10,000% and a total collapse in the standard of life. The country"s dire financial straits have led to widespread hunger while necessary supplies like medicine have become dangerously scarce. At least 90 people have died in the unrest since April, many of them young men, like a 22-year-old protester whose government-sanctioned murder was caught on tape.

Earlier this year, Maduro "annuled" the Assembly, stripping it of most of its legislative powers in favor of consolidating power in the hands of the executive branch.

After the July 5 "Independence Day" attack (Venezuela celebrates its independence one day after the US), National Assembly president Julio Borges said more than 350 politicians, journalists and guests to the Independence Day session were trapped in the siege that lasted until dusk. 

‘There are bullets, cars destroyed including mine, blood stains around the (congress) palace,’ he told reporters. "The violence in Venezuela has a name and surname: Nicolas Maduro."

The crowd had gathered just after dawn outside the building in downtown Caracas, chanting in favor of Maduro, witnesses said. In the late morning, several dozen people ran past the gates with pipes, sticks and stones and went on the attack. Several injured lawmakers stumbled bloodied and dazed around the assembly"s corridors. Some journalists were robbed. After the morning attack, a crowd of roughly 100 people, many dressed in red and shouting ‘Long Live The Revolution!’, trapped people inside for hours, witnesses said.”

Some in the crowd outside the legislature brandished pistols, threatened to cut water and power supplies, and played an audio of former socialist president Hugo Chavez saying "Tremble, oligarchy!" Fireworks were thrown inside. One lawmaker, Americo De Grazia, was hit on the head, fell unconscious, and was eventually taken by stretcher to an ambulance. His family later said he was out of critical condition and being stitched up.

In October 2016, Maduro quashed a recall vote organized by the assembly. Maduro, a former bus driver and chosen successor of its deceased former leader, Hugo Chavez. Venezuela"s opposition has stepped up its criticism of the dictator Maduro for seeking to solidify his control through the creation of a Constituent Assembly, a superbody that will be elected at the end of July. The opposition has promised to boycott the vote, which it (rightly) claims is being rigged.

There has been a string of clashes at the country’s assembly since the opposition thrashed Maduro’s Socialist Party in December 2015 parliamentary elections.

“In a speech during a military parade for Independence Day, Maduro condemned the "strange" violence in the assembly and asked for an investigation. But he also challenged the opposition to speak out about violence from within its ranks.

In daily protests since April, young demonstrators have frequently attacked security forces with stones, homemade mortars and Molotov cocktails, and burned property. They killed one man by dousing him in gasoline and setting him on fire.

In a statement that redefines irony, Maduro condemned the violence on the opposition that was unleashed by his own supporters.

‘I want peace for Venezuela," Maduro said. "I don"t accept violence from anyone.’”

Western officials quickly condemned the attack:

"I condemn the grotesque attack on the Venezuelan assembly,’ tweeted UK ambassador John Saville.

‘This violence, perpetrated during the celebration of Venezuela"s independence, is an assault on the democratic principles cherished by the men and women who struggled for Venezuela"s independence 206 years ago today,’ the U.S. State Department said.”

Meanwhile, Venezuela"s opposition is demanding general elections to end Maduro’s rule over the OPEC member state. Police pilot Oscar Perez, who staged a coup attempt earlier this month and somehow survived, also condemned the violence.

As previously noted, Perez had not been seen since he hijacked a helicopter last week and flew through Caracas pulling a "Freedom" banner. He reportedly opened fire and dropped grenades on the Interior Ministry and Supreme Court but nobody was injured. That attack is widely believed to have been staged to divert attention from the unrest that has brought the country to the brink of economic and political collapse.

Expect violence to worsen as the Constitutional Assembly vote - slated for later this month - draws closer.

Meanwhile, international investors, who have largely ignored the political upheavals in the socialist nation, have started to notice, and as Bloomberg reports, Venezuela"s default odds are once again sharply rising as its foreign reserves tumble toward $10 billion amid ongoing deadly anti-government protests and President Nicolas Maduro’s push to rewrite the constitution.

The implied probability of the country missing a payment over the next 12 months rose to 56 percent in June, based on the latest CDS data, the highest level since December. Implied odds of a credit event over the next five years increased to 91% last month.

Maduro, who has faced three months of violent protests that have left almost 80 dead, has drastically cut imports of food and medicine in order to conserve the cash needed to pay bondholders with declining oil prices and production. That hasn’t stopped a drop in reserves, which usually provide investors with a certain degree of assurance that the government will avoid default in the short-term. Recent deals to provide the government with liquidity have only resulted in minor spikes that have disappeared quickly.

The country faces payments on principal and interest of more than $5 billion in the remainder of the year, although no large sums are due before October. Judging by the recent moves in Venezuela CDS, the market is growing increasingly concerned that Maduro will have enough control over the country to make them.

Government Forces Murder 4 More Protesters In Venezuela, Bringing Death Toll To 80

As the oppressive regime of leftist autocrat Nicolas Maduro intensifies its crackdown on anti-government protesters who have been gathering daily in the streets of Caracas and other Venezuelan cities to demand regime change, the government’s body count continues to climb. Last week, one such government-sanctioned killing was caught on video. The chilling footage shows Venezuelan soldiers shooting a 22-year-old rioter in the chest after he hurled rocks at them.

The Associated Press reports that at least four people were killed and eight injured during anti-government protests in central Venezuela on Saturday. The deaths brought to at least 80 the number of people killed since anti-government protests erupted three months ago.

“Chief prosecutor Luis Ortega Diaz confirmed that four deaths occurred Friday in clashes in Barquisimeto. The city"s mayor blamed the deaths on armed militias that support Venezuela"s socialist government.”

The deaths occurred as Ortega Diaz  - who has had the temerity to stand up to Maduro and question his late-March decision to dissolve the opposition-controlled National Assembly - asked the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights for protection Friday, days after Venezuela"s Supreme Court barred her from leaving the country and ordered her bank accounts froze, according to the Associated Press.

Ortega Diaz is one of the few remaining Maduro critics who haven’t already been removed from power, challenging Maduro"s push to rewrite the constitution and pressing charges against officers responsible for deaths during anti-government protests.

Her latest crime? Her office announced this past week that it would summon the chief of Venezuela"s feared Sebin intelligence agency, Gustavo Gonzalez, to appear on suspicion of "committing grave and systemic violations of human rights."

Maduro responded to Ortega Diaz"s decision by promoting Gonzalez to head of the nation"s army.

Here’s more on that from the AP:

Prosecutors said they are investigating incidents of illegitimate detentions, arbitrary raids and cases in which people have remained imprisoned despite court orders that they be freed.

Maduro responded hours later by promoting Gonzalez to head the nation"s army. He called Gonzalez and Antonio Benavides Torres, another high-ranking official under investigation by the state prosecutor, "brave patriots."

"They have defended the peace of the republic and have all my support," Maduro said.

Maduro has tightened his grip on power and cracked down on his political opposition as the collapse in oil prices – the Venezuelan government’s primary source of revenue – coupled with years of economic mismanagement by Maduro precipitated an unprecedented economic crisis in the country. The collapse of Venezuela’s currency, the bolivar, which trades on the black market at a rate of nearly 8,000 to the dollar, triggered hyperinflation that has made bare essentials like flour, meat, medicine and toilet paper unavailable to the general population.

Venezuela President Maduro Says Armed Group "Started A Coup", Using Stolen Helicopter To Drop Grenades

In an incident that is oddly reminiscent to the "failed coup" in Turkey from last June, late on Tuesday a rogue Venezuelan police helicopter strafed the Supreme Court and the interior ministry on Tuesday, in what President Nicolas Maduro called an attack by "terrorists seeking a coup" and which major news agencies said was an escalation of the OPEC nation"s political crisis, although to some local Venezuelans this was a staged attempt to justify ongoing repression at Venezuela"s National Assembly.

According to Reuters, the helicopter fired 15 shots at the Interior Ministry, where dozens of people were gathered at a social event, after dropping four grenades on the Supreme court during a meeting of judges, although there were no reports of injuries. Opponents to Maduro view the symbolic Interior Ministry as a bastion of repression and also hate the Supreme Court for its string of rulings bolstering the president"s power and undermining the opposition-controlled legislature.

President Nicolas Maduro, speaking on state television after the incident, said people flying a helicopter conducted an “armed terrorist attack against the country’s institutions” and added that "this is the kind of armed escalation I have been denouncing.”

#Venezuela President #Maduro says an armed group has started a coup, with a stolen helicopter used to drop grenades. pic.twitter.com/u80lm61xlR

— Kevin Rincon (@KevRincon) June 28, 2017

Maduro said one of the helicopter pilots served as pilot for former Interior Minister Migue Rodriguez Torres, a critic of Maduro, and said that an air defense plan was immediately activated while calling on the pPblic Prosecutor’s office to take action against “terrorist attack.”

"Sooner rather than later, we are going to capture the helicopter and those behind this armed terrorist attack against the institutions of the country," Maduro said. "They could have caused dozens of deaths."

After Maduro"s speech, Venezuela"s government confirmed the helicopter was stolen by "investigative police pilot" Oscar Perez, who declared himself in rebellion against Maduro. Images posted on social and local media show Perez waving a banner from the helicopter reading "Liberty", and the number "350" in large letters. The number refers to the constitutional article allowing people the right to oppose an undemocratic government.

#Venezuela | Oscar Perez flying stolen helicopter that dropped grenades on Supreme Court. pics via twitter. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/ztue54VojZ

— Lee Saks (@Lee_Saks) June 28, 2017

A video posted on Perez" Instagram account around the same time showed him standing in front of several hooded armed men, saying an operation was underway to restore democracy.

#Venezuela | Oscar Perez declares war after attacking supreme court. says theres union bet citizens police & soldiers to topple Maduro #OOTT pic.twitter.com/Ba2BOn3XGt

— Lee Saks (@Lee_Saks) June 28, 2017

Perez said in the video he represented a coalition of military, police and civilian officials opposed to the "criminal" government, urged Maduro"s resignation and called for general elections. "This fight is ... against the vile government. Against tyranny," he said. Local media also linked Perez to a 2015 action film, Suspended Death, which he co-produced and starred in as an intelligence agent rescuing a kidnapped businessman.

Additionally, on Tuesday, witnesses reported hearing several detonations in downtown Caracas, where the pro-Maduro Supreme Court, the presidential palace and other key government buildings are located. Roughly at the same time, Venezuela National Guard shut down major roads concerned about potential coup, with various small clashes reported breaking out.

#Venezuela National Guard shut down major roads concerned about potential coup. Small clashes already reported #27J pic.twitter.com/Syaz0LRaUF

— Kevin Rincon (@KevRincon) June 28, 2017

The alleged "terrorist coup" caps a volatile period of three months of often violent protests from opposition leaders who decry the 54-year-old socialist leader as a dictator who has wrecked a once-prosperous economy. More troubling for Maduro, in recent weeks there has also been growing dissent too from within government and the security forces, which have traditionally been aligned with the regime.  At least 75 people have died, and hundreds more been injured and arrested, in the anti-government unrest since April according to Reuters.

While demonstrators have been demanding general elections, as well as measures to alleviate a brutal economic crisis, freedom for hundreds of jailed opposition activists, and independence for the opposition-controlled National Assembly legislature, Maduro has responded that the locals are seeking a coup against him with the encouragement of a U.S. government eager to gain control of Venezuela"s oil reserves, the largest in the world.

* * *

And yet this is where the comparisons emerge with the "failed Turkish coup" to "remove" Erdogan last summer, which most admit was a staged attempt meant to further entrench the despotic president.

While Venezuela opposition leaders have long been calling on Venezuela"s security forces to stop obeying Maduro, following yesyerday"s event, there was speculation among opposition supporters on social media that the attack could have been staged to justify repression or cover up drama at Venezuela"s National Assembly, where two dozen lawmakers said they were being besieged by pro-government gangs.

Earlier in the day, Bloomberg reported that pro-government “violent groups” shot fireworks into the National Assembly gardens under the watch of security forces, opposition lawmaker Henry Ramos Allup wrote on Twitter.

National Guard bursting into National Assembly building in #Venezuela. Apparently beating up lawmakers #27Jun pic.twitter.com/2XSLxLAwDC

— Mariana_Atencio (@marianaatencio) June 28, 2017

Allup wrote that National Guard officers had stored boxes belonging to the electoral council in their National Assembly offices.Opposition lawmaker Delsa Solorzano wrote on Twitter that National Guard officers assaulted lawmakers at National Assembly, while opposition lawmaker Amelia Belisario said lawmakers were assaulted for “demanding responses regarding electoral material” National Guard brought into National Assembly.

Military attack senators of national congress in #Venezuela ???????? #27June pic.twitter.com/VydJG6KJ0z

— Oscar Contreras? (@oscarcontrera) June 28, 2017

As Reuters adds, earlier on Tuesday, Maduro warned that he and supporters would take up arms if his socialist government was violently overthrown by opponents. "If Venezuela was plunged into chaos and violence and the Bolivarian Revolution destroyed, we would go to combat. We would never give up, and what couldn"t be done with votes, we would do with arms, we would liberate the fatherland with arms," he said.

"If Venezuela was plunged into chaos and violence and the Bolivarian Revolution destroyed, we would go to combat. We would never give up, and what couldn"t be done with votes, we would do with arms, we would liberate the fatherland with arms," he said.  And what better way - at least in his eyes - to generate some empathy ahead of the "great war" with the domestic and international community, than to be cast as the tragic victim of a "terrorist coup" attempt.

Additionally, Maduro is pushing a July 30 vote for a special super-body called a Constituent Assembly, which could rewrite the national charter and supersede other institutions such as the opposition-controlled congress. He has touted the assembly as the only way to bring peace to Venezuela. But opponents, who want to bring forward the next presidential election scheduled for late 2018, say it is a sham poll designed purely to keep the socialists in power. They have announced a boycott of the coming vote, and protesting daily on the streets to try and have it stopped.

Finally, for good measure, Maduro decided to threaten the US, which he has repeatedly accused of being behind the social turmoil and said the "destruction" of Venezuela would lead to a huge refugee wave dwarfing the Mediterranean migrant crisis.

"Listen, President Donald Trump," he said earlier on Tuesday. "You would have to build 20 walls in the sea, a wall from Mississippi to Florida, from Florida to New York, it would be crazy ... You have the responsibility: stop the madness of the violent Venezuelan right wing."

Opposition to the July 30 vote has come not just from Venezuelan opposition parties but also from the chief state prosecutor Luisa Ortega and one-time government heavyweights such as former intelligence service boss Miguel Rodriguez. As Reuters notes, Rodriguez criticized Maduro for not holding a referendum before the Constituent Assembly election, as his predecessor Chavez had done in 1999.

"This is a country without government, this is chaos," he told a news conference on Tuesday. "The people are left out ... They (the government) are seeking solutions outside the constitution."

While many are skeptical, if today"s "coup" attempt was legitimate, and if opposition to Maduro is indeed at a tipping point among the security forces and military, then not only are Maduro"s days numbered, but in the political and power vacuum that will result following the change in regime, the last thing Venezuela will be able to focus on is maintaining oil production (even if China were to paradrop a group of engineers to its oil vendor state). In which case, crude oil may once again become a barometer of geopolitical tensions; as such keep an eye on the price of oil for the best indication of how close Maduro is to vacating the Caracas presidential palace for the last time.

Has Venezuela's Crisis Reached A Tipping Point?

Authored by William Burke-White and Dorothy Kronick via Knowledge@Wharton,

Venezuela’s ongoing economic and humanitarian crisis has assumed graver proportions over the past five weeks and pressure is mounting for a regime change, even as doubts persist over the likelihood of the next presidential elections, originally set for October 2018. Fresh protests broke out after President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month signed an order aimed at forming a new constituent assembly of some 500 members and rewriting the country’s constitution to reshape his powers and those of legislators.

Many Venezuelans clearly saw Maduro’s ruling as a way to snatch powers from the opposition-led National Assembly and consolidate it in a constituent assembly over which he might have a better hold. “[Maduro] tried to do this as a way to unite the country, but it was seen as an attempt to retain power and sparked the latest round of protests,” said William Burke-White, director of the Perry World House and professor at the University of Pennsylvania Law School.

Venezuela’s crisis has probably hit a tipping point and Maduro’s days in power are numbered, said Burke-White. “The path forward is Maduro will be pushed out of power, or there will be a repressive, horrible crackdown where the death tolls keep mounting,” he noted. “It may be better to be moving in that direction [towards Maduro’s ouster] than be in an ongoing political quagmire that we have been in for the last few years.”

According to Dorothy Kronick, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, “The best way forward for Venezuela would be elections and having a new government in power.” She noted that 2017 is the fourth consecutive year of negative GDP growth for Venezuela; last year, its economy contracted by more than 17%. “There are devastating shortages of food and medicine, and inflation is above 300%. And there is tremendous suffering.”

Burke-White and Kronick discussed the scenarios likely to emerge in Venezuela in the foreseeable future on the Knowledge@Wharton show on Wharton Business Radio on SiriusXM channel 111. (Listen to the podcast at the top of this page.)

Move to Consolidate Power

The recent crisis had its first flash point on March 29, when the country’s Supreme Court passed a ruling to assume the functions of the National Assembly, but strong protests forced it to subsequently backtrack. Meanwhile, protestors continued calling for elections and a regime change. Maduro, who was elected in 2013 after the death of Hugo Chavez, signed the executive order to form a new constituent assembly and rewrite the constitution on May 1. “We must modify this state, especially the rotten National Assembly that’s currently there,” he had said.

Opposition leaders are pressing for a removal of the Supreme Court justices who issued the March 29 ruling, general elections in 2017, the creation of a humanitarian channel for medicine imports and the release of all political prisoners, according to a BBC report.

Burke-White did not expect elections to happen anytime soon. He noted that Maduro had indicated that fresh elections would be held as part of the new constitution. “His [United] Socialist Party [of Venezuela] would lose those elections if they were held today,” he said. “Much of this is a move to push those elections out indefinitely.”

Maduro’s plan for the new constituent assembly is to have about half of its 500 members elected directly from among all sections of Venezuelan society, including workers, youth, women, peasants and indigenous people, according to a CNN report. The other half would be made up of delegates chosen from among businesses and workers’ collectives. Kronick noted that the provisions in the rewritten constitution would “undoubtedly … favor the government.” She also predicted that the Maduro government would try to ensure that the convention “is full of delegates that are its supporters.”

Even so, with Maduro’s low approval ratings, Maduro is taking a big risk, according to Kronick. “His approval ratings are so low that even with electoral rules that are extremely favorable to the government, the opposition could potentially gain control of this constitutional convention,” she said. “That could be very dangerous to the government and lead to regime change.”

With growing protests, Maduro had his back against the wall, according to Burke-White. “He didn’t have many cards left,” he said. “This was a tactic that was legal within the constitutional structure — that the president can call for a new constitution — which you wouldn’t undertake if you weren’t in this moment of desperation.”

An Economy Embattled

Along with those political uncertainties, Venezuela’s economy is also in a sorry state. Oil accounts for 96% of the country’s exports, according to World Bank data, and low oil prices have taken a huge toll. Venezuela has the world’s largest proven supply of oil reserves, but much of that oil has high extraction costs, noted Burke-White. “When oil prices fall, those are the first to cease production because it is economically unviable to do so.” What makes that situation worse is the country has lost both technical talent (fired by the Chavez and Maduro governments) and investors, after foreign investments in the sector were nationalized. “They have lost a great deal of oil extraction capacity, which has both increased the cost of production and decreased the ability to keep production up,” he said. “The oil industry is no longer able to provide the economic support that Maduro needs to consolidate, or buy off, power.” Added Kronick: “Chavez had a windfall when oil prices rose, and raked in hundreds of millions of dollars, but they were not well invested and were squandered.”

In addition to low oil prices, the Maduro government’s decisions “to maintain some destructive and expensive exchange control measures, and price controls” are responsible for the food and medicine shortages, Kronick said. “Economists have been urging Maduro to introduce “common sense” reforms for years such as lifting price controls, she added, noting that “price controls create shortages.”

Pressures Closing in on Maduro

Meanwhile, Maduro could face other threats as he tries to cling to power. For one, it is critical for him to ensure the military’s support. However, as the economic misery widens, it also affects the families of members of the military, Burke-White noted. “It is much harder to maintain a military-based regime when you have to point your guns at your own people,” he said. “Maduro realizes that that’s the support base he can’t let slip, and if it does slip, it could well be the end of his regime.” Kronick noted that a popular chant during protests translates from Spanish to English as: “Soldier, listen. Join the protest, join the fight.”

Expectations run high that the Trump administration could impose sanctions on the Maduro government. Sanctions might not work well on an economy that is “already devastated,” and “very much isolated and closed from the rest of the world,” Burke-White said. However, if sanctions are targeted at specific individuals or supporters of the Maduro regime, they might work, he added. “Many of those people have bank accounts and condominiums in Miami, and getting them to feel some of the pain a little bit more might work.” However, targeted sanctions against Maduro’s supporters “could raise exit costs for members of the regime” said Kronick. “If they were to leave power, they won’t be able to go to Miami and enjoy their post-government life, and that could actually make regime change more unlikely.”

The U.S. does not seem to have sufficient “diplomatic capacity” to engage with Venezuela, given the understaffed State Department, said Burke-White. But he did note Thomas A. Shannon, Jr., undersecretary for political affairs, is well versed with the region’s problems. In February, Donald Trump and Mike Pence met with Lilian Tintori, the wife of jailed Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo López. “The Trump administration is much more willing to be much more openly critical of Venezuela than the Obama administration was,” he added.

U.S. involvement in working with the Venezuelan opposition or trying to influence a regime change could backfire and strengthen Maduro’s hand, Kronick said. “Certain actions [the U.S.] might take against the government help [Maduro] to be able to more credibly say, ‘This is the imperialist U.S. that is responsible for the problems of the country.’”

Pressure could build up on Maduro also within the region. Venezuela has been an important trading and energy partner in the northern part of South America, and it has provided aid to many countries in the region in the form of oil or cash. But its current status has left it unable to drive economic growth in the region. It has socialist-leaning countries as neighbors, including Cuba, “but those countries are leaning in different directions at the moment,” said Burke-White. He expected Cuba to be more susceptible to U.S. pressure “not to be as supportive a trading, economic or even health care partner for Venezuela” as it has been in the past. Kronick said pressure could come on Maduro from regional forums such as the Organization of American States.

Indeed, some of that has begun. Burke-White noted that the Argentine foreign minister has openly criticized Maduro’s call for a new constitution. “That is unusual given that Latin American and South American states have traditionally been hesitant to criticize one another,” he said. “We’re starting to see the edges of that tacit alliance begin to crack.”

The Inflection Point: Venezuela's Military Begins To Defect, March With Protesters

One month ago, when discussing the latest "explosive" turn in Venezuela"s political situation, we predicted that the worst case for president Nicolas Maduro who has so far managed to keep the army on his side even as Venezuela faces now daily violent and in some cases deadly protests, would be the start of the local army turning on the regime, and defecting to join the protesters. Overnight, according to Thor Halvorsen of the Human Rights Foundation, this "inflection point" appears to have arrived when he observed in a Tweet that "the military in parts of Venezuela has begun to defect. They are now marching *with* the protesters. Dozens of soldiers are under arrest."

The military in parts of #Venezuela has begun to defect. They are now marching *with* the protesters. Dozens of soldiers are under arrest pic.twitter.com/iJd8ZoFCz7

— Thor Halvorssen (@ThorHalvorssen) May 6, 2017

Touching on this topic, overnight the NYT mused why have Venezuela"s "powerful political and military elites stuck by President Nicolás Maduro", noting that "the country would seem to be a prime candidate for something scholars call an “elite fracture,” in which enough powerful officials break away to force a change in leadership."

“The fact that it hasn’t happened in the last two years is the biggest puzzle of all,” said Steven Levitsky, a Harvard University political scientist. “If it happens next week, all of us will say, ‘Yeah, it was bound to happen.’”

The NYT further notes that the government has been preparing its defenses since 2002. That year, amid major protests, Hugo Chávez, Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, ordered the military to impose order.

It instead removed him in a coup that was quickly reversed. After that, Mr. Chávez packed the military with allies. The military also gained vast patronage streams, which some local officials say include control over gold mining.

The impossibility of fully predicting how the military might decide in another crisis, along with growing unrest that could again test it, has left the government nervous.

All that may now be changing. In March, a video spread on social media showing three lieutenants who said they no longer recognized Mr. Maduro’s authority. The next month, they turned up in Colombia, where they requested asylum. The Venezuelan government has publicly demanded their return, which Mr. Levitsky called “pretty clear evidence that the government is worried about some sort of conspiracy” within the ranks.

The latest open army defections threaten to further splinter what until recently was a united front among the "elites" supporting the crumbling Maduro regime.

Meanwhile, as the death toll from the recent protests approaches 40, women banged on pans and some stripped off their shirts on Saturday protesting Venezuela"s government in an event the opposition billed as a "women"s march against repression."

Thousands of women marching in Caracas today. Feels like people are prepared to keep protesting almost indefinitely https://t.co/HSMAkzHHYD pic.twitter.com/KzFRvfFjuT

— Hannah Dreier (@hannahdreier) May 6, 2017

As they marched, local media carried a video showing people toppling a statue of the late President Hugo Chavez the day before in the western state of Zulia, the Associated Press reported. The local media reported that students destroyed the statue as they vented their anger with the food shortages, inflation and spiraling crime that have come to define life here.

"Several young men could be seen bashing the statue that depicted the socialist hero standing in a saluting pose, as onlookers hurled insults as the late president."

Describing the women"s protest, AP writes that thousands of women took over streets in major cities all around the South American country.

Wearing the white shirts of the opponents of country"s increasingly embattled government, the women sang the national anthem and chanted, "Who are we? Venezuela! What do we want? Freedom!"

Some sported makeshift gear to protect against tear gas and rubber bullets. Others marched topless. One woman came in her wedding dress.

Meanwhile, as has been the case almost every day for the past five weeks, police in riot gear again took control of major roads in the capital city. Clashes between police and protesters have left some three dozen dead in the past month.

And as has also been the recurring case, on Friday Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez denounced the protest movement, and said opposition "terrorists" were attempting a kind of nonconventional warfare. 

For now, the protest movement, which has drawn masses of people into the street nearly every day since March, shows no sign of slowing. On Saturday, some of the women marchers approached soldiers in riot gear to offer them white roses and invite them to join the cause. "What will you tell your kids later on?" one woman asked.

As Reuters reported earlier in the week, embattled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Monday announced the creation of a new popular assembly which demonstrators decried as a power grab aimed at sidelining the National Assembly. Borges responded by calling on Venezuelans to rebel.

According to Bloomberg, on a call with the president of Peru, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the deteriorating situation in Venezuela. A statement from the White House"s Office of the Press Secretary said Trump underscored to President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski that "the United States will work together with Peru in seeking to improve democratic institutions and help the people of Venezuela." The administration added that it is monitoring Venezuelan instability, and believes there is a strong need to bring weeks of anti-government protests in the country"s capital Caracas to a quick and peaceful conclusion.

“We are deeply concerned about the Maduro government’s violent crackdown on protestors in Venezuela. President Maduro’s disregard for the fundamental rights of his own people has heightened the political and economic crisis in the country,” said Nikki Haley, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in a statement. “The Maduro regime must respect Venezuela’s constitution and the voice of its people. We are particularly concerned that the government is failing to provide basic food and medical needs to the Venezuelan people,” Haley said.

H.R. McMaster, U.S. President Donald Trump"s national security adviser, met on Friday with Julio Borges, the president of Venezuela"s opposition-led National Assembly, about the civil unrest which has been near-daily for five weeks, the White House said on Saturday.

Finally, assuring that daily protests are only set to escalate further, on Saturday Borges, the leader of the left-wing party in Venezuela called for open rebellion as well as Maduro"s resignation, while rejecting any "dialogue" with the administration.

Venezuela Protests As Maduro Blocks 'Opposition' For 15 Years

Opponents of President Nicolas Maduro are calling on demonstrators to flood the streets of Caracas on Saturday as part of a weeklong protest movement that shows little sign of losing steam, after Venezuela’s embattled socialist government stepped up its campaign against the opposition by banning Henrique Capriles, two-time presidential candidate and governor of Miranda state, from holding public office... for 15 years.

Capriles wrote on Twitter Friday...

“I am informing the country and international community that they are notifying me at the moment of a disqualification for 15 years,”

A spokesperson for the Comptroller’s office, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the decision without providing details.

Bloomberg reports that Maduro’s opponents have rallied their supporters on the streets in recent days after the country’s top court tried to quash the nation’s opposition-controlled congress. One protester was shot and killed Thursday in a clash with the National Guard and police after a thousands rallied in the capital earlier that day. The opposition wants the authorities to hold fresh elections and purge institutions of socialist party loyalists.

Speaking at a news conference in his home state of Miranda Friday evening, Capriles said the government’s decision to ban him “gives more reason, more strength to take to the streets of Venezuela,” adding that he would use all legal measures to challenge the ruling.

"The only disqualified one here is Nicolas Maduro," he said, flanked by members of the opposition of alliance.

“The dictatorship wants to choose its own opposition,” National Assembly Vice President Freddy Guevara wrote on twitter. “Are we going to let them? No! Tomorrow we’ll press on!”

Long seen as one of the more moderate voices in the opposition alliance, Capriles has taken a much more strident tone in recent weeks, joining the demonstrations and traveling abroad to met foreign leaders critical of the Maduro government.

Bloomberg further reports that the Venezuela government isn’t just clamping down on Capriles. The head of a small, conservative opposition party took refuge in the Chilean Embassy this week after being called to appear in a military court for alleged treason, while local rights groups say over 80 protesters have been arrested across the country since the wave of demonstrations began last week.

AP notes that past demonstrations were sometimes planned weeks in advance to guarantee high turnout. But now the almost-daily churn of events in what"s being called the "ongoing coup" - the government"s alleged moves to accumulate more power - has energized and united the normally fractious opposition leading up to Saturday"s march.

As is now customary, authorities shut down the city"s subway in what"s widely seen as an attempt to discourage people from joining the protests, many of which have ended in scores of arrests, tear gas and rubber bullets. In another intimidation tactic, police also posted on social media mugshots of protesters taken undercover at recent demonstrations with a request for information about the whereabouts of the unidentified "generators of violence."

Together with jailed hardliner Leopoldo Lopez, Capriles is the most-popular opposition leader. With both seemingly out of the running, the government may be trying to manipulate the electoral playing field to leave the opposition with less viable options should the government bow to pressure and call presidential elections before they"re scheduled in 2018, analysts said.

"However, it is a risky strategy that will probably backfire," Eurasia Group said in a report Friday. "The opposition is clearly fired up and this will further their cause."

Maduro Scrambles To Defuse "Explosive" Situation As Supreme Court Reverses Ruling

While investors had largely given Venezuela"s economic catastrophe the benefit of the doubt for the past two years as crude collapsed and the country"s CDS soared to record highs only to normalize subsequently, yesterday bond investors got very nervous for the first time in a while, as the Venezuela 9.25% of 2027 bonds crashed on fears a presidential coup may be imminent after Wednesday"s decision by the pro-Maduro supreme court to assume the functions of congress, in effect making Venezuela a Maduro dictatorship. The opposition promptly slammed the decision as a "coup" against an elected body and demanded army intervention, and the tipping point came when even a formerly pro-Maduro Attorney General, Luisa Ortega, slammed the "unconstitutional" usurpation of power.

One day later, the bond selloff, coupled with a dire surge in domestic anger and protests, as well as international condemnation, appears to have been sufficient to spook Maduro that this may be one of his last (bad) decisions because on Saturday morning, Venezuela"s Supreme Court reversed its decision to strip congress of its legislative powers.

"This controversy is over ... the constitution has won," Maduro said in a televised speech just after midnight to a specially convened state security committee that ordered the top court to reconsider its rulings. The Supreme Court duly erased the two controversial judgments during the morning, the information minister said.

In an amusing twist, Maduro tried to cast the U-turn as his own personal achievement, one of a wise statesman resolving a power conflict, everyone and certainly his opponents said it was a hypocritical row-back by an unpopular government that overplayed its hand.

"You can"t pretend to just normalize the nation after carrying out a "coup,"" said Julio Borges, leader of the National Assembly legislature, quoted by Reuters. He publicly tore up the court rulings this week and refused to attend the security committee, which includes the heads of major institutions.

While the Supreme Court flip-flop may take the edge off protests, Maduro"s opponents at home and abroad will seek to maintain the pressure. They are furious that authorities thwarted a push for a referendum to recall Maduro last year and also postponed local elections scheduled for 2016. Now they are calling for next year"s presidential election to be brought forward and the delayed local polls to be held, confident the ruling Socialist Party would lose.

"It"s time to mobilize!" student David Pernia, 29, said in western San Cristobal city, adding Venezuelans were fed up with autocratic rule and economic hardship. "Women don"t have food for their children, people don"t have medicines."

Venezuelan Bolivarian National guards officers are confronted by university students
during a protest outside of the Supreme Court in Caracas, on March 31, 2017

As mentioned yesterday, today the National Assembly plans an open-air meeting in Caracas, while South America"s UNASUR bloc was to meet in Argentina with most of its members unhappy at Venezuela. The hemispheric Organization of American States (OAS) had a special session slated for Monday in Washington.

As Reuters adds, even before this week"s events, OAS head Luis Almagro had been pushing for Venezuela"s suspension, but he is unlikely to garner the two-thirds support needed in the 34-nation block despite hardening sentiment toward Maduro round the region.

That said, Venezuela can still count on support from fellow leftist allies and other small nations grateful for subsidized oil dating from the 1999-2013 rule of late leader Hugo Chavez. Maduro accuses the United States of orchestrating a campaign to oust him and said he had been subject this week to a "political, media and diplomatic lynching."

A woman wears a banner over her mouth with a message that reads in Spanish:
"Venezuela lives in a dictatorship" during a protest, in Caracas

Serious criticism even came from within government, with Venezuela"s attorney general Luisa Ortega rebuking the court in an extremely rare show of dissent from a senior official. "It constitutes a rupture of the constitutional order," he said in a speech on state television on Friday.

The Supreme Court"s decision helped to further galvanize resistance to Maduro, Pockets of protesters had blocked roads, chanted slogans and waved banners saying "No To Dictatorship" around Venezuela on Friday, leading to some clashes with security forces. Given past failures of opposition street protests, however, it is unlikely there will be mass support for a new wave. Rather, the opposition will be hoping ramped-up foreign pressure or a nudge from the powerful military may force Maduro into calling an early election.

* * *

Meanwhile, the nation continues to disintegrate, with Reuters reporting that Venezuela"s murder rate rose to an average 60 per day last year, up from about 45 per day in 2015, the attorney general"s office said on Friday, as the country"s worst economic and political crisis in history continues to claim victims Official data put the murder rate at 70.1 per 100,000 inhabitants last year, one of the highest in the world and up from 58 in 2015.

Violent crime is one of the most pervasive anxieties for Venezuelans, especially in poor slums dominated by gangs and rife with guns. Numerous state security plans and disarmament drives in recent years have failed to curb violence given easy access to weapons, police participation in crime, and high levels of impunity in the nation of 30 million people.

A brutal economic recession that has millions skipping meals has pushed more Venezuelans towards crime, according to officials, rights groups and neighborhood organizations. Recently, Venezuela - the country"s with the world"s largest proven oil reserves, ran out of gasoline.

Venezuela In Dire Straits As Oil Production Falls Further

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

Venezuela’s economic crisis continues to deepen. The South American OPEC member is thought to be sitting on nearly 300 billion barrels of oil, far more than any other country in the world, including Saudi Arabia (estimated at 268 billion barrels). But the economy has been in freefall for several years, with conditions continuing to deteriorate.

The economic crisis has morphed into a full-blown humanitarian disaster. Just this week the Wall Street Journal reported on Venezuelan women traveling to neighboring Colombia to give birth because the state of Venezuela’s hospitals are horrific, with shortages of medical supplies and trained staff. Infant mortality is worse than in war-ravaged Syria.

Food and other essential items are also painfully scarce, leading to long lines at shops. Tensions run high because there is not enough to go around.

Now even gasoline is running low in Caracas, Reuters reports, an unusual development for the capital city.

Gas shortages suggests problems for Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA are deepening. The government depends on oil production for more than 90 percent of its export revenues, and the collapse of oil prices back in 2014, coupled with a long-term slide in output, have ruined the company’s finances.

That, in turn, puts even more pressure on PDVSA. A shortage of cash is straining the company’s ability to import refined products as it falls short on bills to suppliers. PDVSA needs to import refined products to dilute its heavy crude oil, but without enough cash, tankers are sitting at ports unable to unload their cargoes. Reuters also says that “many tankers are idle because PDVSA cannot pay for hull cleaning, inspections, and other port services.”  

Separately, Bloomberg reported that Venezuela’s largest port at Puerto Cabello is quiet, with satellite imagery showing no vessels arriving or departing. “If you can see a country’s economic decline from space, you know it’s in big trouble,” Graham Stock, the head of emerging-market sovereign research at BlueBay, told Bloomberg on March 19. 

The economic malaise has Venezuela’s cash reserves plunging to $10.4 billion, according to the latest estimates, which is equivalent to only 10 percent of the country’s outstanding debt. Graham Stock told Bloomberg that he puts Venezuela’s odds of a default this year at 50 percent.

Inflation is likely over 700 percent annually, but in February the central bank decided to stop publishing money supply data, which surely doesn’t bode well. "If they are not publishing, you know it must be skyrocketing," Aurelio Concheso, director of the Caracas-based business consultancy Aspen Consulting, told Reuters in an interview.

The economic meltdown and humanitarian crisis has sparked anger across the country, and opposition to the incompetent management of President Nicolas Maduro is growing. That has been met with a clenched fist by the Maduro government, which has jailed political prisoners, weakened the National Assembly and indefinitely delayed gubernatorial elections. In response, 14 Latin American nations plus the United States and Canada are pushing a resolution in the Organization of American States calling on the Maduro government to hold elections and back off his nationwide crackdown. The efficacy of such a move is uncertain, but for a dozen nations in Latin America to intervene in such a way is a testament to how far Venezuela’s stock has fallen. “It’s one more step in the increasing isolation of Venezuela,” Javier Corrales, a professor and Latin American expert at Amherst College, said in a WSJ interview. “It’s a very important step in a region that realizes one of its members is in violation of the democratic precepts of the OAS charter.”

Venezuela’s predicament has ramifications for the oil market. The South American nation was desperate for collective production cuts from OPEC members, and has enthusiastically supported the deal. Venezuela pledged output cuts of 95,000 bpd from October levels, promising to average 1.972 million barrels per day between January and June. Early data shows that Venezuela has not yet followed through on those cuts – Reuters says it is achieving only a 7 percent compliance rate. But the government has ordered cuts from some PDVSA operations in Orinoco Belt, a sign that the Maduro government has intensions to follow through on its pledge. Non-compliance could rattle the resolve of other OPEC members, ultimately leading to an unraveling of the deal, which would likely push oil prices much lower and worsen Venezuela’s crisis.

However, production cuts also run the risk of exacerbating the economic depression that Venezuela finds itself in. Lower production means much less revenue. On top of that, Reuters says that some of the cuts will affect joint ventures that PDVSA has with Eni and Rosneft, two partners that won’t be too happy about being ordered to reduce output.

The bottom line is that Venezuela’s oil output might be heading down whether or not President Maduro wants it to. Fitch Ratings says that a default on PDVSA’s debt is “probable” this year, with an estimated $10 billion in debt payments falling due and only $2 billion in cash on hand. And the company would need much higher prices in order to boost production at any point in the near-term. “Giving the tight liquidity, prices need to be significantly higher to revive output,” Lucas Aristizabal, a senior director at Fitch, told Bloomberg in February. “At least more than $100 to start with.”