The 7 Key Takeaways From Xi Jinping's Vision For "A New Era" In China

As reported first thing this morning, China"s President Xi Jinping outlined his vision for the next five years, ushering in a "new era" (a term he repeated 36 times) of development in China, as the Communist Party’s 19th Congress opened in Beijing on Wednesday. During a 3½-hour long speech, Xi said the internal and external situations facing China were undergoing complicated changes which the party needed to address. Xi started with the opening remark that “the prospects are bright while the challenges are also grave”, before reminding his audience of his achievements over the past five years, which included: poverty reduction, strengthening the one party rule, national security, cutting down pollution and the Belt and Road infrastructure initiatives. One can also throw in "nationalizing China"s capital markets" in this list.

Further, as DB"s Jim Reid wrote overnight, Xi"s anti-graft drive has achieved an “important and irreversible’ momentum and he insisted that China has ‘zero tolerance” on corruption. On the long term, he wants to set the agenda for the country to be “a modern, socialist power” by 2050. On the economy, he says the liberalisation of both interest rate exchanges will continue as "the door China opened will not close but will open wider and wider".

Elsewhere, Xi wants China to make the "quality and efficiency" of growth a priority and deepen supply side reforms as well as insisting on the need to reduce excessive capacity and debt ratios. On housing, he said "houses are for people to live in, not for speculation" and he promised to provide more homes through a variety of different channels.

Before his formal address, Deputy central bank chief Pan also noted that he expects that the Yuan will have a more secure foundation after the congress allowing the central bank to push exchange rate market reforms.

Xi also vowed to step up ideological guidance within the party, strengthen its anti-corruption campaign, retain the government’s grip on Hong Kong and Macau, and oppose any moves towards independence in Taiwan.

Courtesy of SCMP, here are the seven major takaways from Xi"s report:

1. A new name for Xi’s political philosophy

Xi said China has formed “socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era”. The idea will be the guiding principle for the country’s development in the coming years. The slogan was released amid speculation about how Xi’s political thought would be enshrined into the party’s constitution. There are 14 elements behind the concept, with one key idea being that the party should lead in every aspect of life in China.

Xi said the dream of national rejuvenation would only be a fantasy without the leadership of China’s Communist Party. The party should lead in all areas and the authority of the party central leadership should be respected, he said. Cadres should keep in line with the party leadership, while the party should tighten its lead on ideological work. “The party resolutely opposes all attempts that will weaken, distort or reject the leadership of the party and the implementation of socialism,” he said adding that a “principal contradiction” had emerged in Chinese society because of uneven development and the public’s demand for a better life.

2. Becoming a nation with leading, global influence by 2050

Xi laid out some ambitious targets for the next 30 years and more. The first batch should be achieved from 2020 to 2035, Xi said. China will be a top ranked innovative nation by 2035 with a large middle-income population and narrower wealth gap. China’s soft power should be boosted, Xi said. From 2035 to 2050, China should become a nation with pioneering global influence.

3. Keeping up with the “irreversible” momentum of anti-corruption campaign and maintaining the rule by law

China will set up a leading group for comprehensive rule by law. Xi repeatedly talked about the concept during his speech and vowed the party and the government would rule the country under the law and through public oversight. No one would be able to put themselves above the law, he said. He added that China must watch out for any attempt to copy Western-style democracy.

Xi also issued a warning to delegates at the Great Hall of the People on corruption, saying China insists on “zero tolerance” of graft. He said the government has been unswerving in “fighting tigers, destroying flies and hunting down foxes”, referring to the government’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign. He said a national supervision law would be formulated and shuanggui – a party disciplinary practice – would be replaced.

4. Protecting national sovereignty

China’s capability to deal with national security should be boosted as the nation will resolutely protect its sovereignty and interests. Xi said China has made a “historical breakthrough” in national defence and military reform. The navy has protected the nation’s maritime interest and its army rapidly upgraded its weaponry. For the coming years, China will continue pushing for integration between the civilian and the military sector. The People’s Liberation Army should be a “world class” force by 2050. China also opposes separatism under the guise of religion or extremist thought, Xi said.

5. Upholding central government authority over Hong Kong and Macau and opposing Taiwan independence

Xi said the “one country, two systems” principle will not be changed nor distorted in Hong Kong. The central government’s jurisdiction over the two Special Administrative Regions, which also includes Macau, should not be shaken, he said.  On Taiwan, Xi said Beijing has properly handled the changing situation facing the island and will continue to resolutely oppose any move to seek independence for Taiwan.

6. Creating a level playing field for foreign businesses

Countering foreign diplomats and business concerns that the government was blocking overseas investment, Xi said China would give equal treatment to all businesses. “The China which has opened up will not close, but will open wider and wider,” he said. China’s GDP has increased from 54 trillion yuan (US$8.2 trillion) five years ago to 80 trillion yuan and the government would aim for growth that is of higher quality and sustainable, he said.

7. Protecting the public interest

Fighting poverty was crucial for China to become a moderately prosperous society, Xi said. All provinces which are under the poverty line should climb above that threshold by 2020. He also pledged to create more jobs for college graduates and migrant workers. Addressing concerns over rising property prices, Xi said houses were for people to live in, not for speculation.

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Not enough? Then here are 6 more key highlights, this time from Goldman"s China economist, Yo Song, who writes that "overall the report sent few new signals on either near-term cyclical policy or longer term structural policy, in our view, although there are a few changes/ highlights/ new concepts to note, which we outline below."

• Change in the “principal contradiction facing Chinese society,” which is usually viewed as the guidance on the Party"s key area of focus. In the report, Xi said that “the principal contradiction facing Chinese society has evolved to be that between unbalanced and inadequate development, and the people"s ever-growing needs for a better life,” a change from previously, “the principal contradiction in our society is still between the ever-growing material and cultural needs of the people, and the backwardness of social production.” (This statement had been in place since 1981.) We view this change in “principal contradiction” as an acknowledgement of the need for more efficient and balanced economic development. Instead of purely focusing on the speed of economic growth, policy makers now also emphasize higher productivity, higher profitability, more innovation and efficient distribution, as well balanced development between urban and rural areas, and among different regions of the country. This is also consistent with the tone from policy makers in recent years (e.g., the “new norm” from Xi, and “focusing on not just the quantity but also the quality of development” in the Central Economic Working Conference).


• Xi’s thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era. The report came up with thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era, which should be effectively a summary of Xi’s thoughts and will likely be incorporated into the Party Constitution during the Congress. There are 14 fundamental principles, which have been mentioned previously in different situations, with the first being “ensuring Party leadership over all work.” On economic areas, Xi mentioned “continuing to comprehensively deepen reform and “adopting a new vision for development,” which reiterated Xi’s five development concepts (i.e., innovation, coordination, green development, opening and sharing), and reemphasized letting the market play a decisive role in resource allocation. Environmental issues are listed as a separate principle under “ensuring harmony between human and nature,” and the report mentioned plans to “implement the most rigorous ecological and environmental protection system.”


• A new two-stage development plan. In the report, Xi emphasized importance of the period up to 2020 as "the decisive stage in building a moderately prosperous society," and said that "all requirements on building a moderately prosperous society from the 16th, 17th, 18th Party Congress must be followed." Presumably, this would include the goal of doubling income by 2020 established in the 18th Party Congress, though it was not explicitly mentioned here. Then Xi proposed a two-stage development plan from 2020 to the middle of the 21st century, with the first stage from 2020–2035 to see that socialist modernization is basically realized, and the second stage from 2035 to the middle of the 21st century to develop China into a great modern socialist country. However, there are no quantitative details in the plan currently.


• Characterizing the economy as turning from a high-growth phase to a high-quality development stage. The report also mentioned building a modern economic system. Major measures for this include deepening “supply side” reforms (e.g., reiterating key structural tasks such as over-capacity cuts and de-leveraging), strengthening innovation, promoting SOE reforms with mixed ownership, developing a twin policy management framework with both monetary policy and macro-prudential tools, “significantly” loosening market access to domestic service sectors and protecting foreign enterprises’ legal rights in China.


• Other highlights included a proposal to establish a central leading working group on the comprehensive rule of law, although the exact form of the group has not yet been specified. In social areas, Xi highlighted a policy intention to widen the coverage of education, reduce income gaps between low- and high-income groups, strengthen social protection (e.g., retirement, unemployment), reduce poverty and deepen ongoing medical service reforms. He also reiterated that, “houses are for living, not for speculation” and mentioned plans to “speed up the development of a housing system with supply from multi entities, protection from multi channels and combination of rental and sale.”


• The next publication will be the list of Central Committee members on Oct 24, followed by revealing of appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee on Oct 25.

The above was summarized best by UBS" chief economist, Paul Donovan, in just one sentence: "China"s economic challenge is that the successful model of the last twenty years will not work in the next twenty years."

And while we previously gave a full preview of what to expect from the 19th Congress, here is a 2 minute summary for those pressed for time:

China On Pace To Dethrone The US

Authored by James Holbrooks via TheAntiMedia.org,

“Not sure whether China will be nice to self-ruled Taiwan? Wait until after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party.

What’s in store for the hotly disputed, resource-rich South China Sea, where Beijing has taken a military and technological lead since 2010? Wait until after the Congress.

Coffee maker wouldn’t start today? Wait until after the Congress.

Wait. But you get the idea: This event, due to start Oct. 18, is monumental enough to put a lot of Asia on hold — and make it worry.”

That’s how Ralph Jennings opened his piece for Forbes on Wednesday. Humor aside, the point he’s making is the same one I made at the end of September — that China’s upcoming National Congress is a really big deal.

China sets the regional tone on nearly all matters, as Jennings points out in his article:

"Chinese foreign and economic policies shape much of Asia. China’s ever-growing efforts to build and fund infrastructure around the subcontinent through initiatives such as One Belt, One Road have obvious impact on smaller countries that might otherwise struggle to finance their own projects. Neighbors from Japan to India are watching China for foreign policy cues that affect their iffy diplomatic relations with the region’s major power.”

But China’s geopolitical influence extends far beyond Asia. The country has long been viewed as the rising global superpower on pace to dethrone the United States. Much has been written and said about China’s willingness to embrace this role as more and more countries turn to it for guidance.

China is highly conscious of this trend. It feels the world’s eyes aimed squarely in its direction and very much wants everything at the upcoming Congress, during which President Xi Jinping is expected to be reaffirmed as leader and appoint his own trusted allies to key positions of power, to go smoothly.

This is why, as I pointed out last month, the Chinese government has implemented a system-wide crackdown - both in the streets and in cyberspace - on political dissent ahead of the Congress. It all goes back to perception and the desire to present to the world the “One China” the country’s government says exists.

But perhaps there’s even more to it than that. It may be that once power is further solidified under Xi at the Congress, China will be ready to fully embrace the role of world leader. On Wednesday, its state-run Xinhua News Agency ran an article titled “China offers wisdom in global governance,” which opened with the following:

“With its own development and becoming increasingly closer to the center of the world stage, China has been injecting positive energy into the international community in pursuit of better global governance over recent years.”

Xinhua writes that China’s leadership ability is already well-established and that even though it’s currently undergoing a restructuring of its own, its vision for the world is one rooted in peace and innovation:

“As the world’s second largest economy and the biggest contributor of global economic growth, China’s innovative concepts on improving global governance and promoting global peace and common prosperity have gained wide recognition and support from other countries.

“Undergoing structural reforms, China is implementing its new concept of innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development, eyeing a quality growth model driven by innovation.

“Meanwhile, the country is assuming its international responsibility to promote common development with other countries in the interconnected world.”

Continuing, Xinhua points to international acceptance of One Belt, One Road as evidence of China’s ability to take the lead in adapting to the modern era:

“The Belt and Road Initiative, building a community of shared future for mankind and the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, all proposed by China, have been incorporated in U.N. resolutions, showing wide international consensus on the concepts.

“Equality, mutual respect and win-win cooperation feature in the Chinese plans, which also safeguard the irreversible trend of globalization.”

This “win-win cooperation” is China’s guiding principle, Hu Angang of Tsinghua University in Beijing, told Xinhua. He even dubbed the philosophy “win-winism,” as the state news organ explains:

“’Win-winism’ highlights an open world economy for common development of all countries and joint efforts to address global challenges such as climate change and terrorism, and exchanges of different cultures, said the researcher.”

Xinhua goes on to write that Liu Wei, president of Renmin University of China, says the country has taken the lead by “putting forward new concepts, thoughts and plans to reshape the global governance system.”

With China in the spotlight ahead of the National Congress, it shouldn’t be taken lightly that the superpower would allow such bold language by one of its state mouthpieces. Indeed, it could be that a post-Congress China will be a far more assertive player on the world stage.

China Unveils Emergency Drill To "Shut Down Harmful Websites"

China"s 19th National Congress of the Communist Party - the quinquennial confab where the party selects new members of the Politburo, its ruling council - is expected to begin this fall (official dates have not yet been publicly announced). And in an effort to guarantee that the leadership reshuffle goes off without a hitch, President Xi Jinping is tightening the government’s grip on the internet to help protect the official narrative that Xi"s "Chinese Dream" remains intact.

According to Reuters, China held a drill on Thursday with internet service providers to practice taking down websites deemed harmful.

“Internet data centers (IDC) and cloud companies - which host website servers - were ordered to participate in a three-hour drill to hone their "emergency response" skills, according to at least four participants that included the operator of Microsoft"s cloud service in China.

China"s Ministry of Public Security called for the drill "in order to step up online security for the 19th Party Congress and tackle the problem of smaller websites illegally disseminating harmful information", according to a document circulating online attributed to a cyber police unit in Guangzhou.”

The Communist Party “protects” China’s 1.4 billion citizens from the influence of subversive foreign using nationwide system of internet censorship known as the “Great Firewall.” But as the country’s financial regulators grow increasingly concerned about the country’s dangerously overleveraged economy, which is threatening to sink the country’s fragile stock market, it’s likely that the government sees local business media as a threat. Two years ago, following the spectacular runup and collapse of the Shanghai Composite, authorities arrested one of China’s most respected financial journalist and forced him to make an on air “apology” after the government blamed his reporting for triggering the crash.

Earlier this year, authorities began a crackdown on VPNs like the Tor network which can allow mainland residents to circumvent the “great firewall.”

“China has been tightening its grip on the internet, including a recent drive to crack down on the usage of VPNs to bypass internet censorship, enlisting the help of state-owned telecommunication service providers to upgrade the so-called Great Firewall.

Apple last week removed VPN apps from its app store, while Amazon"s China partner warned users not to use VPNs.”

During the drill, the country’s internet data centers were asked to practice shutting down target web pages and report relevant details to the police, including the affected websites" contact details, IP address and server location, according to Reuters. With five of the seven Politburo members retiring, this year’s National Congress presents President Xi with his best opportunity yet to consolidate power. And as tensions escalate between China and several of its geopolitical rivals (notably the US, which is theatening a trade war, and India, which could instigate a real war), expect the crackdown to continue.

War With US Becoming A "Practical Reality" Chinese Military Warns

In the harshest warning yet that China is actively contemplating a worst case scenario for its diplomatic relations with the US, a senior Chinese military official said that “a war within the president’s term’ or ‘war breaking out tonight’ are not just slogans, they are becoming a practical reality.” The remarks, first reported by the SCMP, were published on the People’s Liberation Army website in response to the escalating rhetoric towards China from America"s new administration, and as Beijing braces itself for a possible deterioration in Sino-US ties, with a particular emphasis on maritime security.

The commentary written by an official at the national defence mobilisation department in the Central Military Commission - which has overall authority of China’s armed forces - also called for a US rebalancing of its strategy in Asia, military deployments in the East and South China Seas and the instillation of a missile defence system in South Korea were hot spots getting closer to ignition.

The People’s Liberation Army, quoted by SCMP, said in a commentary on its official website last Friday, the day of Trump’s inauguration, that the chances of war have become “more real” amid a more complex security situation in Asia Pacific.

China"s sabre-rattling then peaked earlier last week, following an unconfirmed report that China"s military moved long range ICBM closer to the north east border in Heilongjiang province, within firing range of the US. As reported here, Chinese social media carried pictures claiming to show the Dongfeng-41 advanced intercontinental ballistic missile system near the Russian border.

Provocative state-run tabloid The Global Times suggested the People’s Liberation Army could have leaked the photos on social media as a warning to Mr Trump. However, Chinese President Xi Jinping has also recently called for the reduction of nuclear weapons.

The most recent deterioration in US-Sino diplomacy follow a statement by Trump spokesman Sean Spicer who told a press conference on Monday that the US would prevent China from taking over territory in international waters in the South China Sea. Spicer told the press “the US is going to make sure that we protect our interests there,” when asked about US President Donald Trump’s position on the South China Sea. “It’s a question of if those islands are in fact in international waters and not part of China proper, then yeah, we’re going to make sure that we defend international territories from being taken over by one country,” he said.

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying responded by telling the US “to be cautious in what it says and does, so as to avoid harming the peace and stability in the region.”

The Chinese military is constantly prepared for possible military conflict whoever serves as US president, but Donald Trump’s possible “extreme approach” against China was dangerous, according to analysts.
Ian Storey, a senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said some of the comments from Trump’s key advisors and appointees suggest that the US may pursue a more hardline policy against Beijing in the South China Sea over the next four years.

“As it’s highly unlikely that China will compromise its sovereignty claims in the face of US pressure, we can be sure that the dispute will increasingly become a risky point of contention between Beijing and Washington,” he said.

The comments come as President Xi Jinping is overseeing massive reforms within China’s military to improve its fighting capabilities. A huge reshuffle is also underway in the military’s top brass. Vice-Admiral Shen Jinlong, commander of the South Sea Fleet, is to replace retiring Admiral Wu Shengli as chief of the PLA Navy.