The Trans-Pacific Partnership’s Fate was Discussed in Da Nang

Among the most noticeable events that took place on the sidelines of the latest APEC summit (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), held on November 10-11 of this year in the Vietnamese city of Da Nang, activities that attracted the greatest interest were at the Ministerial level, and later at the highest level of the TPP participating countries. That is because TPP’s subsequent fate is on the list of most important factors that are determining the character of the current, ongoing reshuffling of global political cards.

This list can be narrowed down to a few main trends among the few leading world players, as well as political geometric configurations of those same players, who wield decisive participation.

TPP enters the picture as such a configuration. That, in general, was not raising any doubts when the world’s leader, the USA, was a participant (and the main driving force) of the project, if for no other reason than that TPP, with America’s participation, accounted for about 40% of global GDP.

But even after the current American President withdrew the USA from the project, the remaining 11 participants produce a very impressive 27% of global GDP. This is almost equal to the productivity of the configuration “EU-Japan,” which is quite remarkable in all aspects (and not just economic). That configuration took shape in the middle of this year’s summer, when Tokyo and Brussels agreed upon the creation of a joint FTZ (free trade zone).

Now the corpse of the TPP, which is growing cold, is trying to energize Japan. Japanese Ministers in particular, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe himself, acted as project resuscitators in Da Nang. And the “resuscitation” as described might have occurred, had it not been for the “weak spot” that Canada showed.

During a few rounds of preliminary negotiations at the level of ranking representatives, and Ministers of the TPP’s 11 participants, it was decided not to make any revisions to the documents, which had been approved conclusively in February 2016 (meaning, still with Washington’s participation), but the validity of a few dozen points was “put on ice” “up to the return” of the USA to the project.

Canada refused to sign even this document which, as best that can be understood, came at the very last moment, and completely unexpected by all the other 10 participants of the meeting in Da Nang.

On the morning of November 10, Vietnam’s Minister of Trade (having host country authority of the meeting) announced the achievement of a “fundamental agreement” for the TPP project, the English abbreviation for which acquired 2 additional letters “C” (Comprehensive), and also “P” (Progressive), and now looks like CPTPP. An hour earlier, Canada’s Minister of Trade, François-Philippe Champagne spoke out in similar fashion.

However, just a few hours later, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared that some more work was required to achieve a “final agreement”. Consequently, at this time no TPP – neither “comprehensive,” nor “progressive – has arisen on the world’s political arena.

Commentators of the unexpected Canadian “slowdown” pretty definitively tie it to difficult, ongoing negotiations regarding the restructuring of NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement), which includes Canada, together with Mexico and the USA. At the insistence of Donald Trump, this process was set in motion in the summer of this year, and its progress has been discussed in NEO.

We’ll remind our readers that the American President was also present in Da Nang. Quite possibly, Justin Trudeau could have heard from him some “friendly advice” concerning TPP.

Right now it’s difficult to give a more or less exact description of the document not signed by Canada, as well as the current state of TPP overall. As always, artistic forms come to our aid.

The cartoon in the Chinese newspaper, “Global Times”, depicts a portico, supported on one side by three stone columns with letters that form the English abbreviation TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership). The other side of the portico is held up by two flimsy sticks (seemingly put there in haste), which are marked by the same new letters “C” and “P.” With a lively step, an American eagle takes away the mighty column that stood before in their spot.

It’s hard to take issue with the cartoon’s artist, who seems to have wanted to say that TPP’s prospects remain unclear, even doubtful, and expectations for the return of the USA to the project should be abandoned.

At the same time, attention was raised by an unexpectedly cordial meeting on the sidelines of the APEC meeting between Shinzo Abe and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping.

The word “unexpected” means that, despite the resumption recently of bilateral contacts with the participation of eminent, retired politicians, parliamentarians, and businessmen, the persistent, overall atmosphere of mutual suspicion would not incline one to expect to hear from Chairman Xi words “about success over the last months” in bilateral relations or even attribute to them “a new start”. With those words, Shinzo Abe was in complete agreement.

If concrete actions will follow the words, this will then become one of the few extremely important, positive trends of the current situation in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR).

Its development may be hindered by, in particular, the ongoing differences in viewpoints regarding future, regional economic cooperation. As noted above, Japan is now the main “promoter” of TPP, which, though being implemented in the form of “without the USA”, for now maintains an anti-Chinese political orientation put there earlier by Barack Obama.

With just this circumstance in mind, the Chinese leader in his address at the APEC summit in Da Nang spoke out against “closed” economic configurations in the region, and for closer cooperation among countries included in the very same APEC and ASEAN. We should note that both of these organizations include almost all (besides Canada) TPP participants, and also the USA.

So, the mere fact, progress, as well as results of the latest activities conducted in Da Nang as part of the TPP project of the new configuration, directly affect the various aspects of the political game, which has been unfolding in the APR. By the same token, the character of its development will fundamentally determine TPP’s fate.

Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”

Trump Gets Red Carpet Treatment in China

(ANTIMEDIA) Beijing — On Wednesday, Donald Trump touched down in Beijing to a literal red carpet treatment. Trump and wife Melania descended from Air Force One on the carpeted staircase to a festive tune played by a Chinese military band. Children were there, as well, jumping up and down and waving Chinese and American flags.

President Xi Jinping had already emptied the Forbidden City — the former imperial palace of Chinese dynastic families that now serves as a museum — so the two world leaders and their wives could have a private tour. After that, it was reported Wednesday, it was time for a little opera.

It was the first occasion Trump and Xi had met since Xi’s visit to Mar-a-Lago in Florida back in April. Most in the media seem to agree that Xi’s warm welcome for Trump is evidence of the two leaders’ increasingly cordial relations. The U.S. president has certainly been laying it on rather thick as of late.

After Xi cemented his power last month at China’s Party Congress, Trump congratulated him via Twitter for his “extraordinary elevation.” Around that same time, he said in an interview that some might now call Xi the “king of China.” Then, this week, Trump took to Twitter again, saying he’s looking forward to meeting with Xi following his “great political victory.”

This is great and all, but there are still important matters to be discussed between the leaders of the world’s two largest superpowers. Those matters will be brought to the table on Thursday. Unsurprisingly, according to Trump’s own team, the two top items will be trade and North Korea.

It was Trump’s comments on the latter item in a speech in South Korea on Tuesday that made headlines in the hours before the U.S. president landed in Beijing. That speech consisted mostly of praise for the government and people of South Korea for their progress — with the United States’ help, of course — in the decade following the Korean War.

But Trump also took the opportunity to directly address the Kim Jong-un regime in a manner that should be familiar to everyone at this point:

“North Korea is a country ruled as a cult. At the center of this military cult is a deranged belief in the leader’s destiny to rule as parent protector over a conquered Korean Peninsula and an enslaved Korean people.”

Trump went on to say that South Korea’s success is a direct threat to the North because it highlights the failures of the Kim regime. Continuing, the president pointed to what he says are countless violations by the North of international nuclear agreements, and that he wouldn’t stand for such conduct as his predecessors have:

“The regime has interpreted America’s past restraint as weakness. This would be a fatal miscalculation. This is a very different administration than the United States has had in the past.”

Trump said Tuesday he hoped he was speaking for all civilized nations when he warned:

“Do not underestimate us, and do not try us. We will defend our common security, our shared prosperity, and our sacred liberty.”

Stating that America “does not seek conflict or confrontation” but that “we will never run from it,” Trump pointed out that “history is filled with discarded regimes that have foolishly tested America’s resolve.”

Then, saying “the time for excuses is over” regarding the North Korea issue, Trump asked all “peace-loving nations of the world” to support the United States’ approach to the Hermit Kingdom — and called out a certain Asian giant directly:

“You cannot support, you cannot supply, you cannot accept. We call on every nation, including China and Russia, to fully implement U.N. Security Council resolutions, downgrade diplomatic relations with the regime, and sever all ties of trade and technology.”

He added that “those nations that choose to ignore this threat, or, worse still, to enable it, the weight of this crisis is on your conscience.”

While it remains to be seen if Trump’s tough talk in South Korea will bear any actual fruit during his visit with Xi, it does appear that, at a minimum, the Chinese president is attempting to extend an olive branch. From Reuters on Tuesday:

“Chinese tour operators based in the border city of Dandong have been told to halt trips to the North Korean capital Pyongyang, five sources told Reuters on Tuesday, the day before U.S. President Donald Trump’s first official visit to China.

“Chinese President Xi Jinping will host Trump in Beijing on Wednesday, with North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons expected to top their agenda. The United States has been pressuring China to do more to rein in its neighbor and ally.

“Tourism is one of the few remaining ways North Korea earns hard currency, as the United Nations has ramped up sanctions on the country over the past year, curbing key export industries including coal, seafood and textiles.”

Creative Commons / Anti-Media / Report a typo

Chinese President to Cement Power as China Takes Role as Global Superpower

(Op-Ed ANTIMEDIA)  — On Wednesday, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will begin. The week-long event, during which President Xi Jinping will further cement his control of the government, comes at a pivotal time for the Asian superpower.

Countries in the region — and, indeed, much of the rest of the world — are increasingly looking to China for guidance. For years, in fact, the media has painted the image of China overtaking the United States as the dominant force on the planet.

As Anti-Media has previously observed, evidence suggests that under a freshly anointed Xi, a post-Congress China may be ready to fully embrace this role of world leader. An article from its state-run Xinhua News Agency last week, titled “China offers wisdom in global governance,” speaks directly to this shifting geopolitical tide.

But Anti-Media has also explored China’s glaring problem in the midst of all its power projection. As the country seeks to present a strong, unified front to the international community during the Congress — the “One China” it very much wants to be recognized — Hong Kong and Taiwan continue to push for independence.

Last Tuesday, the president of Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province, used a speech at the capital city of Taipei to, as Reuters wrote, “warn that the self-ruled island would not bow to pressure” from Beijing.

“Today, on our National Day, we should remember that democracy and freedom are rights that only came following the joint efforts of all Taiwanese people,” said President Tsai Ing-wen. “As a result, the government must make the utmost effort to safeguard Taiwan’s values of democracy and freedom, as well as our way of life.”

In the speech, which focused on her ideas for building a better Taiwan, Tsai says her administration is dedicated to improving the Taiwanese military. In doing so, the delicate line the leader must walk, even while holding her ground on the issue of self-determination, is clear to see:

“Although we are strengthening our military capabilities, we do not seek war. We remain committed to maintaining peace and stability both in the Taiwan Strait and across the region. Meanwhile, we will continue to safeguard Taiwan’s freedom, democracy, and way of life, as well as ensure the Taiwanese people’s right to decide our own future.”

Tsai went on to say that Taipei and Beijing have thus far been able to “maintain the basic stability of cross-strait relations” and that she hopes both sides can be “pragmatic and realistic” in future exchanges.

A large chunk of Tsai’s speech, however, was focused on how Taiwan is working to get as far out of China’s sphere of influence as possible — precisely what China doesn’t want. Specifically, Tsai discussed the New Southbound Policy (NSP), described by Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA) on Wednesday:

“The NSP seeks to increase cooperation with Southeast Asian and South Asian countries, as well as New Zealand and Australia, as a means of reducing Taiwan’s trade and investment reliance on China.”

CNA was reporting on the fact that President Tsai just pledged to establish a $3.5 billion fund to assist countries involved in the NSP project. In her Tuesday speech, Tsai said flatly that the purpose of the NSP is to help Taiwan achieve a “more advantageous position in international society.”

It will be interesting, to say the least, to see what happens following the Party Congress. If a more forceful China decides to flex a little muscle, the stubbornly independent Taiwan could make for a very convenient target.

Op-Ed / Creative Commons / Anti-Media / Report a typo

Xi Jinping Meets with Trump

President Trump welcomed President Xi at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Thursday [image: Carlos Barria/Reuters]China and America are largely world’s apart on ways to resolve differences between them, including major geopolitical issues.

Beijing urges diplomatic outreach with Pyongyang and cessation of provocative US/South Korean military exercises the DPRK believes are preparations for war on its country.

Washington categorically refuses to end decades of unjustifiable hostility toward North Korea, choosing confrontation over responsible outreach, risking unthinkable war on the peninsula, possibly going nuclear by accident or design.

Beijing and Moscow want provocative US THAAD missile systems removed from South Korea, threatening their territory. The Trump administration is unbending, keeping them deployed, intending new installations – aimed mostly at China and Russia aggressively.

Unacceptable US air and sea incursions encroaching on China’s territory remain a major sticking point between both countries.

So are arms sales to Taiwan and economic relations. Trump’s “America first” agenda risks initiating a trade war – last November saying “(w)e can’t continue to allow China to rape our country.”

“That’s what they’re doing. It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world.” He threatened a “tit-for-tat approach” through imposition of tariffs on certain Chinese imports.

Trump and Xi Jinping spoke several times by phone. On Saturday, they met for the second time on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Hamburg, Germany.

Both agree on Korean peninsula denuclearization. Xi stressed the need for both countries to show mutual respect and cooperation on regional and international issues – to keep bilateral relations positive.

Trump said he and Xi have a “wonderful relationship,” expressing confidence both leaders can achieve “success” in addressing common issues of concern.

“Trade is a…very, very big issue for the United States,” he stressed, adding “we’re going to turn that around.” On North Korea, he said “there will be success in the end one way or the other.”

Trump is scheduled to pay a state visit to China later this year. Focus will be on continuing discussion of major issues both countries agree and disagree on.

Resolving latter ones will likely remain unattainable. Washington wants all countries observing its rules. China insists its sovereign rights be respected – yielding them to no other country.

A rocky bilateral relationship looks likely to continue – Xi under no illusion about America changing how it operates, hoping to make the best out of a bad situation.