Manhattan Office Bubble Fizzles Without Big Chinese Buyers

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Sales volume in Q3 plunges 67% from a year ago.

Manhattan, the biggest most expensive trophy market in the US for commercial real estate, used to be particularly appealing to exuberant foreign investors, such as Chinese conglomerates. But in the third quarter, sales volume of large office properties (minimum $5 million and 50,000 sq. ft.) plunged 67% year-over-year to $991 million, the lowest in five years. It was down 90% from the peak in Q1 2015.

“Q3 2017 might signal a return to normalcy for the highly sought-after Manhattan market,” the report by Yardi Systems’ Commercial Café commented.

This chart shows the dollar sales volume of large office properties. The $991 million in Q3 is rounded up to $1 billion:

The number of closed deals plunged 40% to just six transactions, according to Commercial Café. That’d down 71% from the peak in Q1 2015:

The average price per square foot fell 19% year-over-year and is down 32% from the peak in Q1 2016, but is up from Q1 2017 and about flat with Q3 2015.

As this chart shows, the average price per square foot varies based on a number of factors, including seasonality, but with a trend since the peak in Q1 2016 that doesn’t look promising:

The largest deal was the $465-million sale of 375 Hudson, a 19-story, 1 million-square-foot Class A property, acquired by Trinity Real Estate, the real estate arm of Trinity Church (51% stake), Norges Bank (48% stake), and Hines Interests (1% stake).

What’s sorely missing? The big transactions at inflated prices by Chinese buyers, such as the $2.2 billion purchase in May of 245 Park Avenue by the Chinese conglomerate HNA Group that had boosted Q2 sales. The deal was more than twice the size of the six transactions in Q3 combined. At $1,282 per square foot, it was also “among the highest price-per-pound for this type of asset” ever recorded in Manhattan, as it has been described. Those trophy purchases by Chinese conglomerates really moved the needle.

But now the large Chinese conglomerates that had considered the Manhattan office market their trophy hunting grounds were absent.

This absence follows the crackdown by China’s State Council on cross-border transactions. Its guidelines spell out what Chinese companies can and cannot acquire overseas to “promote healthy growth of overseas investment and prevent risks,” as the guidelines said.

Some transactions are still desirable according to the guidelines, with a big emphasis on China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” in Central Asia and on companies that “take the lead to export China’s superior technology and equipment, upgrade the nation’s research and manufacturing ability, and make up the shortage of energy and resources through prudent cooperation in oil, gas and other resources.”

Other overseas investments will be “restricted,” including “real estate,” “hotels,” and “entertainment.”

So here we go. Over the past few years, and building up into a powerful crescendo that culminated just a few months ago, Chinese conglomerates have been buying up whatever they could get their hands on with precariously borrowed money. But now they’re being reined in by Chinese authorities who are worried about the soaring debt levels of those conglomerates and about their acquisitions at inflated prices and about a financial crisis that these debt levels could trigger when they go bad. And trophy markets, such as Manhattan, are among the first to feel the effects.

Norway Wealth Fund Assets Surge To Over $1 Trillion On Massive 70% Allocation To Equities

Last December we joked that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund had responded to sinking returns and withdrawals required to fund budget deficits by allocating another $130 billion in assets to what appeared to be an already massively overpriced equity bubble in return for an extra 40bps of "expected average annual real returns." (see: Norway Buying $130 Billion In Global Equities As Sovereign Wealth Fund Continues To Bleed Cash).  The extra equity purchases pushed the fund"s total equity allocation to a staggering 70% of their $860 billion in assets under management. 

After being forced to withdraw at least $15 billion to fund 2017 budget deficits, the $860 billion Norwegian sovereign wealth fund has announced that it will change it"s portfolio allocations to try to make up the difference.  The change will result in 75% of the fund"s capital being allocated to global equities, up from the current 60%.  Sure, because funneling another $130 billion to the global equity bubble is just the prudent thing to do for an extra 40bps of "expected average annual real returns."

The central bank’s board, which oversees the fund, on Thursday recommended an increase in the equity share to 70 percent from 60 percent. That will raise the expected average annual real return to 2.5 percent over 10 years and to 3.5 percent over 30 years, compared with 2.1 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, under the current setup.

The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund said that it expects an annual return of only 0.25 percent on bonds over the next decade and that the expected “equity risk premium,” or return on stocks over government bonds, will be just 3 percentage points in a cautious estimate.

“In our analyses, this is clearly evident in global data: internationally, growth in firms’ cash flows and equity returns are correlated with growth in the global economy,” Deputy Governor Egil Matsen said in a speech Thursday in Oslo. “Global economic growth in the coming years is expected to be below its historical level. This ‘pessimism’ is partly related to the driving forces behind the low level of the real interest rate.”

Alas, with global equity bubbles becoming ever more bubblier with each passing day, the bet on equities has paid off "bigly" for Norway and pushed their AUM to over $1 trillion for the first time ever.  Per Bloomberg:

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund hit $1 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, driven higher by climbing stock markets and a weaker U.S. dollar.

The milestone valuation was reached for the first time on Sept. 19 at 2:01 a.m. in Oslo, Norges Bank Investment Management said in a statement on Tuesday.

“I don’t think anyone expected the fund to ever reach $1 trillion when the first transfer of oil revenue was made in May 1996,” Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of the fund, said in the statement. “Reaching $1 trillion is a milestone, and the growth in the fund’s market value has been stunning.”

Meanwhile, the fund"s record AUM comes despite taking withdrawals for the first time ever in 2016 and expectations that another 70 billion kroner will be withdrawn this year to help offset budget deficits.

Norway’s government last year made direct withdrawals from the fund for the first time in its history and is expected to take out about 70 billion kroner this year. Meanwhile, Norway has lowered the fund’s expected return to 3 percent from 4 percent.

The fund has been given permission to raise its stock holdings to 70 percent from 60 percent, with an equivalent cut in bonds. That could help it eke out higher returns, or at least maintain the 8 percent annualized real return it’s had over the past five years.

But Slyngstad also recently said he sees fundamental issues with the global economic system and trade, which is being buffeted by increasing global political risk. And that’s not good for a fund that owns 1.3 percent of global stocks.

So, it appears that Norway"s reckless equity bet has paid off for now...but, what is the saying about "he who laughs last?"

Norway Government Forces Sovereign Wealth Fund To Buy $100 Billion More In Stocks "To Safeguard The Country's Riches"

As we reported late last year, the Norwegian government ordered its Sovereign Wealth Fund to increase its equity allocation to 70% to try and paper over what’s expected to be a 70 billion kroner ($11.1 billion) drawdown – the first in the fund’s history.

That money was needed to plug a budget hole created by falling oil prices, and it seems the brilliant minds at the Norwegian Ministry of Finance and the Norges Bank figured they could easily recoup the fund"s losses by upping its risk exposure. Indeed, they’ve already raised the fund’s expected average annual real return to 2.5 percent over 10 years and to 3.5 percent over 30 years, compared with 2.1 percent and 2.6 percent previously.

Eight months later, the MoF is still planning to make the shift, which would result in it buying about $100 billion in global stocks, though prices have risen considerably in the interim. Despite the fund’s rush to raise its 10-year earnings forecast, fund officials said worries about a near-term market slump played “little part” in their investing plans," according to Bloomberg.

“Norway’s $970 billion wealth fund has been ordered to raise its stock holdings to 70 percent from 60 percent in an effort to boost returns and safeguard the country’s oil riches for future generations. Any short-term view on growing risks will play little part, according to Trond Grande, the fund’s deputy chief executive.

‘We don’t have any views on whether the market is priced high or low, whether bonds and stocks are expensive or cheap,’ he said in an interview after presenting second-quarter returns in Oslo on Tuesday. The decision to add stocks ‘was made at a strategic level, on a long-term expected excess return that we’re willing to take risk to achieve. And parliament has said that they wish to spend some time to phase in that increase.’”

According to data cited by Bloomberg, the fund held 65.1 percent in stocks, 32.4 percent in bonds and 2.5 percent in properties during the second quarter. Its mandate is now to keep about 70 percent in stocks, 30 percent in bonds, with about 7 percent in real estate that’s now separate from the main portfolio.

However, Grande says he’s keeping a “close eye” on market indicators.

“It doesn’t lead to anything in concrete terms, other than the fact that we’re keeping a close eye on the indicators that could indicate whether there’s a risk there, and what they’re saying,” Grande said. “Some risk indicators have actually not shown underlying risk -- take growth for example. So you should be a little cautious when the skies are all blue.”

While the fund has said little about its investment preferences, Bloomberg reports that the fund has recently been expanding into emerging markets.

“Owning 1.3 percent of global stocks, the Norwegian fund largely follows indexes but is allowed some active management of its portfolio. It has been expanding more into emerging markets and recently got permission to raise its stock holdings after Norway last year started withdrawing cash from the fund for the first time.”

Sovereign wealth funds have like Norway"s have benefited immensely from a virtuous cycle of central bank buying. So perhaps Norges Bank Deputy Governor Egil Matsen, the official in charge of the fund’s oversight, has some special insight into the thinking of central bankers, the primary engineers of the global post-crisis market rally. 

Central bankers like Thomas Jordan and his colleagues at the Swiss Central Bank, which earlier this month revealed itself as the “mystery buyer” that kept US stocks afloat during the second quarter while retail and institutional investors headed for the exits.

 

Whatever it is, the rest of us will have to wait to find out.

Dan Loeb Is Now Nestle's 6th Largest Shareholder; Goes Activist On World's Biggest Food Company

Dan Loeb has returned to his earthshaking activist roots, and in a letter released moments ago, Third Point announced it is now targeting the world’s largest food company, with its biggest bet on a public company in its history, amounting to $3.5 billion.

In the letter, Third Point announced that it currently owns roughly 40 million shares of Nestle, and that its stake, which is held in a special purpose vehicle raised for this opportunity including options, currently amounts to over $3.5 billion. Putting this number in the context of Nestle"s market cap of $264 billion, Loeb may have an uphill battle though that never stopped him before.

Loeb"s stake of 40 million shares makes him the 6th largest holder of Nestle, above Credit Suisse Asset Management with 38 million shares and below Massachusetts Financial Services Company with 56.8 million. The Top 4 holders are BlackRock, CapRe, Norges Bank, and Vanguard.

Third Point writes that "despite having arguably the best positioned portfolio in the consumer packaged goods industry, Nestlé shares have significantly underperformed most of their US and European consumer staples peers on a three year, five year, and ten year total shareholder return basis. One year returns have been driven largely by the market’s anticipation that with a newly appointed CEO, Nestlé will improve."

While the problems are clear, why did Third Point go activist? To maximize value of course, as It explains:

Third Point invested in Nestlé because we recognized a familiar set of conditions that make it ripe for improvement and change: a conglomerate with unrealized potential for margin improvement and innovation in its core businesses, an unoptimized balance sheet, a number of non-core assets, and a recent history of meaningful under-performance versus peers. It is rare to find a business of Nestlé’s quality with so many avenues for improvement.

As to how it could achieve this, Third Point lays out 4 specifics recommendations:

Third Point intends to play a constructive role to encourage management to pursue change with a greater sense of urgency. We have offered our views in productive conversations with management, which we expect will continue. We believe Nestlé is positioned to create enormous value for shareholders over the next several years if the company focuses on: 1) Improving Productivity; 2) Returning Capital to Shareholders; 3) Re-shaping the Portfolio; and, 4) Monetizing its L’Oréal Stake. We discuss each of these in more detail below.

Loeb"s conclusion:

As demonstrated by our significant capital commitment, we are enthusiastic about Nestlé’s prospects. The situation reminds us of similar conditions that existed when we first invested in Baxter in 2015. Some market observers scratched their heads, as they thought the company looked “expensive” and thus underestimated the uplift that is possible when a new leader dedicates himself to better capital allocation, portfolio optimization, and margin improvement with strong shareholder support.

We recognize that even with new leadership and clear options for value creation, change at a company like Nestlé can be complex. It is for this reason that Third Point intends to be an engaged, long-term shareholder and offer our assistance to the management team and Board as they pursue improved performance for all stakeholders. We are confident that by following the path we have outlined, Nestlé will be able to revive its iconic slogan, with a twist: Nestlé makes the very best returns for its shareholders.

For the full breakdown of Loeb"s recommendations, see the full letter below.

As Bloomberg notes, the Third Point move comes as Nestle’s new Chief Executive Officer Mark Schneider aims to boost the company’s health strategy as well as focus on the businesses that are growing fastest, such as coffee and pet food. Food companies are under pressure to reduce costs after Kraft Heinz Co.’s unsuccessful bid for Unilever earlier this year showed that even the largest players could become targets.

Chocolate makers especially are grappling with weak U.S. consumption as Americans increasingly turn their backs on sugar. Nestle said this month it may sell its U.S. sweets unit, which includes brands such as Butterfinger and BabyRuth.

Third Point has targeted European companies before. Vitamin maker Royal DSM NV also attracted the activist, and went on to sell its majority stake in a basic plastics and resins unit to CVC Capital Partners after facing calls to break up.

Full Third Point letter below (pdf link)