Showing posts with label Foreign relations of Qatar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Foreign relations of Qatar. Show all posts

Monday, July 17, 2017

CNN Caught Faking News Again: US Intel Accuses UAE, Not Russia, Of Orchestrating Qatari "Hack"

Just over a month ago, we expressed amazement at just how sophisticated, efficient and pervasive the "Russian hacking" community had become after CNN reported - citing unnamed government officials of course - that they had managed to hack into a Qatari News Agency and post a "fake" news story all in an attempt to drive a wedge between the U.S., Qatar and some of it"s Gulf Arab neighbors, one which culminated - at least according to the CNN narrative - with the Qatari crisis in which an alliance of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia isolated and blockaded the nat gas rich nation.


The CNN headline made it quite clear: ignore the Arab conflict and please focus on the only thing that matters these days: Russia. Just in case it is somehow lost, we will have it here for posterity.



Think about that for a minute: set aside the logistics of the actual hacking event itself and consider just how good the Russians had to be to know exactly what news story needed to be planted inside the Qatari news agency to provoke an immediate severing of diplomatic ties by numerous Arab neighboring states: it truly was amazing how it all played out exactly the way the Russians planned. The conclusion: those wily "Russian hackers" are certainly not a bunch of amateurs, would come in useful as the Russian hacking narrative just refused to go away.


And while that may sound like a joke, at least to CNN it wasn"t.  Here are the details, as they were previously reported by CNN:





The FBI recently sent a team of investigators to Doha to help the Qatari government investigate the alleged hacking incident, Qatari and US government officials say.



Intelligence gathered by the US security agencies indicates that Russian hackers were behind the intrusion first reported by the Qatari government two weeks ago, US officials say. Qatar hosts one of the largest US military bases in the region.



The alleged involvement of Russian hackers intensifies concerns by US intelligence and law enforcement agencies that Russia continues to try some of the same cyber-hacking measures on US allies that intelligence agencies believe it used to meddle in the 2016 elections.



The Russian goal appears to be to cause rifts among the US and its allies. In recent months, suspected Russian cyber activities, including the use of fake news stories, have turned up amid elections in France, Germany and other countries.



As it turns out, it"s somewhat ironic that CNN accused Russia of spreading "fake news stories" that "have turned up amid elections in France, Germany and other countries" because, as CNN"s ideological twins over at the WaPo blasted moments ago, it wasn"t Russia at all (now that the hacking narrative has found a renewed vigor in the US, courtesy of the leaked Trump Jr. emails) but - wait for it - the UAE, i.e. not Russia.  Compare the CNN headline above from June 6 with what the WaPo has just published:



Here is the "latest" official narrative, at least according to the "U.S. intelligence and other officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter" quoted by WaPo, who may or may not be the same ones who planted the original fake news at CNN:





The United Arab Emirates orchestrated the hacking of Qatari government news and social media sites in order to post incendiary false quotes attributed to Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani, in late May that sparked the ongoing upheaval between Qatar and its neighbors, according to U.S. intelligence officials.



Officials became aware last week that newly analyzed information gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies confirmed that on May 23, senior members of the UAE government discussed the plan and its implementation. The officials said it remains unclear whether the UAE carried out the hacks itself or contracted to have them done. The false reports said that the emir, among other things, had called Iran an “Islamic power” and praised Hamas.



But... wait: didn"t US intelligence agencies just one month ago say it was all Russia"s fault? Looks like it took just one month for the CIA to change its mind. We wonder if and when it will the same to its "conclusion" confirmed by 17 4 intelligence agencies that Russia also hacked the DNC and John Podesta (although we won"t be holding our breath for that particular narrative shift). Back to the WaPo:





The hacks and posting took place on May 24, shortly after President Trump completed a lengthy counterterrorism meeting with Persian Gulf leaders in neighboring Saudi Arabia and declared them unified.  Citing the emir’s reported comments, the Saudis, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt immediately banned all Qatari media. They then broke relations with Qatar and declared a trade and diplomatic boycott, sending the region into a political and diplomatic tailspin that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has warned could undermine U.S. counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic State.



Then again, this may be just another fishing expedition (or better yet, clickbait) by the WaPo. Naturally, the Emirates denied everything:





In a statement released in Washington by its ambassador, Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE said the Post story was “false.” “The UAE had no role whatsoever in the alleged hacking described in the article,” the statement said. “What is true is Qatar’s behavior. Funding, supporting, and enabling extremists from the Taliban to Hamas and Qadafi. Inciting violence, encouraging radicalization, and undermining the stability of its neighbors.”



Maybe he meant to say Saudi Arabia, but there"s just too many fake news in one place at this point to even keep track. Meanwhile, according to the WaPo even more subsequent hacks provided the detail needed to get to the bottom of the original hack:





The revelations come as emails purportedly hacked from Otaiba’s private account have circulated to journalists over the past several months. That hack has been claimed by an apparently pro-Qatari organization calling itself GlobalLeaks. Many of the emails highlight the UAE’s determination over the years to rally Washington thinkers and policymakers to its side on the issues at the center of its dispute with Qatar.



This confirms what we reported last month, when we said that Qatar - which has repeatedly charged that its sites were hacked, but has yet to release the results of its own investigation - accused the Arab states behind the embargo for also being behind the hack. Today"s WaPo report appears to confirm this:





Intelligence officials said their working theory since the Qatar hacks has been that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, or some combination of those countries were involved. It remains unclear whether the others also participated in the plan.



Meanwhile, nobody is willing to say anything on the record, of course: "The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment, as did the CIA. The FBI, which Qatar has said was helping in its investigation, also declined to comment." Which is understandable: they are all busy going through any and all Trump emails intercepted by the NSA, looking for a smoking gun.


CNN"s fake news aside, what the WaPo report confirms, assuming it is accurate of course, is that the Arab states engaged in a "false flag" operation against Qatar, to provide them the justification for escalating the confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Qatar to its current crisis level, and potentially beyond: to war, considering Rex Tillerson"s attempts to mediate a resolution in his "shuttle diplomacy" tour in the Gulf over the past week proved to be a disaster.


That said, authenticity of the latest WaPo "report" is itself suspect. We look forward to another denial in several months which confirms what most likely actually happened: the NSA and CIA were those responsible for the Qatar "hacking", an event which has launched a destabilizing sequence of events in the middle east, and which according to many may culminate with war in the region, the ideal outcome for both the "Deep State" and the Military-Industrial/Neocon complex.


As for CNN, we are "confident" they will be issuing a retraction to their original "fake news" report any... minute... now...

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Turkey Deploys "Fifth Batch" Of Troops To Qatar

While Rex Tillerson was actively seeking to resolve the Qatar crisis with his "shuttle diplomacy" tour across the Gulf, signing a memorandum of understanding with Qatar on fighting terrorism in Doha on Tuesday  after spending Monday in Turkey and Kuwait, Qatar said more Turkish troops had arrived at a Turkish military base in Doha after Ankara fast-tracked legislation in June expanding the troop deployment to Qatar.



According to Gulf Times, the Directorate of Moral Guidance at the Ministry of Defence has announced the arrival of the fifth batch of Turkish troops in Qatar.





According to the directorate, the batch is joining the Turkish forces currently in Doha (Tariq Bin Ziyad battalion camp). Arrival of the batch will boost training tasks within the framework of military co-operation between Qatar and Turkey and to activate the terms of defence agreements between the two countries.



The latest "training" exercise at the Qatari base - which houses Turkish soldiers under an agreement signed in 2014 - has been ongoing since June 19, with the continued base existence one of the key demands in the recently rejected Saudi ultimatum. As a reminder, at the end of June, Riyadh laid down a list of 13 demands for Qatar, including the closure of Al-Jazeera television, a downgrade of diplomatic ties with Iran and the the closure of the Turkish military base in the emirate. The UAE warned that Qatar should take the demands seriously or face a "divorce" from its Gulf neighbors. Ten days later, Qatar denied the accusations, calling the move "unjustified."


Even as the diplomatic crisis escalated, Turkey has been trying to do its best to mediate. Ankara displayed its support to Qatar as Parliament approved two deals to deploy troops to an air base in Qatar. Ankara"s latest troop deployment to Qatar is meant to increase stability and help Turkish peacemaking efforts function better according to Reuters. The deal to deploy troops to Qatari soil, which is expected to improve the country"s army and boost military cooperation, was signed in April 2016 in the Gulf country"s capital Doha. The deal was approved by Parliament after a period of one year.


"This defense cooperation between Doha and Ankara is part of their common defense vision to support anti-terrorism efforts and maintain security and stability in the region," a statement by Qatar"s Armed Forces said. The statement did not give the number of Turkish troops at the base or how many had just joined to bolster the deployment.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Tillerson Flies To Gulf To Resolve Qatar Crisis As Ties Emerge Between Kushner And Qatar's Richest Man

In the latest US attempt to mediate and resolve the Qatar crisis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson flew to the Gulf on Monday for talks aimed at ending the standoff between a coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia and the wealthy nat gas exporter, which has led to more than a month of economic, financial and naval blockade. The State Department said Tillerson, who forged extensive ties in the Gulf as CEO of ExxonMobil, would hold talks with leaders in Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. He was flying from Istanbul where he attended an international petroleum conference. R.C. Hammond, a senior adviser to Tillerson, added that the former Exxon CEO would explore ways to end a stalemate following Qatar’s rejection of 13 demands issued as condition for ending sanctions.


Following Qatar"s refusal to comply with the ultimatum, which included the closure of Al Jazeera and a Turkish militarybase in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and its backers have threatened further sanctions against the emirate.


In Doha, a Western diplomat told Reuters that the creation of a "terror finance monitoring mechanism" would feature in the talks without elaborating. As a reminder, on June 5th Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE and Egypt imposed sanctions on Qatar, accusing Doha of aiding terrorism, something it denies.


"The trips to Saudi Arabia and Qatar are about the art of the possible," said Hammond, who added that the 13 demands "are done" and "are not worth revisiting as a package. Individually there are things in there that could work."


The crisis has hit travel, food imports to Qatar, ratcheted up tensions in the Gulf and sown confusion among businesses, while pushing Qatar closer to Iran and Turkey which have offered support. Furthermore, the US is worried that the crisis in Qatar - which hosts Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military facility in the
Middle East - could affect its military and counter-terrorism operations and increase the regional influence of Tehran, which has been supporting Qatar by allowing it to use air and sea links through its territory.


Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has expressed support for Saudi Arabia in the dispute, which may emerge as a new potential scandal for the presidency. 


Earlier on Monday, the Intercept reported that in what may be seen as a conflict of interest, Trump"s son in law Jared Kushner tried, and failed, to obtain a $500 million investment to refinance and fund the expansion of his 666 Fifth Avenue property, where the family is severely underwater, from one of Qatar"s richest men, the former prime minister and former head of the local sovereign wealth fund, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani.





Throughout 2015 and 2016, Jared Kushner and his father, Charles, negotiated directly with a major investor in Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, known as HBJ for short, in an effort to refinance the property on Fifth Avenue, the sources said.



HBJ ultimately agreed to invest at least $500 million through Al Mirqab, on the condition that Kushner Companies could raise the rest of a multibillion refinancing elsewhere. The negotiations continued long after the election, carried out as recently as this spring by Charles Kushner. “HBJ basically told them, we’re good for 500, subject to a lot of things, but mainly subject to you being able to raise the rest,” said one source in the region with knowledge of the deal. The talks were confirmed by two additional sources with knowledge of the talks. One of those sources claimed that the potential deal was not contingent on the rest of the money being raised and that the HBJ investment was on hold as the overall structure of the financing was reconsidered.



The deal ultimately died when Anbang, which was supposed to be the major partner, and co-investor, as well as provide a $4 billion loan, pulled out, after the deal was critized as a conflict of interest, although there is now the implicit speculation that Trump"s greenlighting of the blockade of Qatar was in retaliation for the collapse of the 666 Fifth investment.


Of course, it is worth recalling that in addition to seeking to cooperate with Trump, Sheih Hamad Bin Jassim Jabr Al-Thani was also one of the most prominent Clinton Foundation donors.



Taking a more diplomatic stance, Hammond said it was critical that not only Qatar, but Riyadh and its allies take steps to halt any financial support flowing to extremists groups, especially following the defeat of Islamic State in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. "It’s a two-way street,” he said. “There are no clean hands here."


"We want progress on terrorism financing. The president strongly believes that if you cut off financing, you cut off the ability of terror to take hold in new areas," Hammond said.


Moreover, he said, "the longer that this struggle is in place, the more opportunity there is for Iran.” Yet, ultimately, behind the facade of a united front behind "the war on terrorism", it now appears that the motive behind the Qatar crisis may have once again been nothing more than settling of old financial scores.

Sunday, July 2, 2017

One Day Before The Saudi Ultimatum Expires, A Defiant Qatar Is "Ready To Face The Consequences"

Two days ago, when previewing the showdown in the Qatar "diplomatic quagmire", we reminded readers that "Qatar only has until July 3 to comply with the 10-day ultimatum of 13 demands imposed by the Saudi-led bloc", a list which the Saudis described as non-negotiable, with Riyadh"s foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir saying Doha must “amend its behavior” or “remain isolated."


Fast forward to just one day before the Saudi ultimatum expires, when Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed Al Thani said his nation is unwilling to concede to any demands that threaten its sovereignty or violate international law. The small but wealthy Gulf emirate said it was prepared "to let pass the deadline for complying with 13 demands set down by the bloc", including shutting down Al Jazeera and cutting back ties with Iran, Al Thani said in Rome quoted by Bloomberg, where he met the Italian foreign minister. 


“There is no fear from our direction. We are ready to face the consequences,” Al Thani said. “There is an international law that should be respected and not violated.”


And while Al Thani repeated that Qatar is willing to sit down and negotiate under the right circumstances, he repeated that the ultimatum issued June 23 was made to be rejected.


As a reminder, nearly a month ago, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the U.A.E and Egypt severed commercial, diplomatic and financial links with Qatar saying they were isolating the sheikdom over what they see as its tolerant attitude to Iran and support for Islamist groups, which is ironic since Saudi Arabia is widely acknowledged as the world"s premier supporter of offshore terrorism. The group’s demands also include Qatar severing relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and ending Turkey’s military presence in the country. On June 23, Qatar was given 10 days to respond.


Meanwhile, not mincing his words, Al Thani accused the blockading nations - it"s clear who he was referring to here - of themselves having ties to groups and individuals accused of terrorism.


“As for the countries that accuse Qatar of financing terrorism, they have the same problems as Qatar, more so, they are on top of the list in that area,” he said. “There are financial institutes in these countries involved in financing terrorist organization and financing terrorist operations in western countries.”


The coalition presented Qatar with its requirements to end the standoff after U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson urged the Saudi-led bloc to lay out its demands. In a statement on June 25, Tillerson conceded that Qatar would find it “very difficult” to comply with some of the requests. On June 27, during a visit in Washington, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir called the demands non-negotiable.


As previewing the outcome of the ultimatum, earlier this week Citi said that unless the demands are met by July 3 "then this situation is likely to get a lot worse before it gets any better."


Meanwhile, Citi added, there has been a continued lack of reaction from ‘the West’: there is also confusion as to the stance of key historical players in the Middle East, such as the UK and the US, who have either said very little – Trump once called Qatar a “haven for terrorism”, while Rex Tillerson has twice upbraided Saudi Arabia’s approach. Last Friday, a White House spokesman told the Guardian: “The United States is still accessing the list and we are in communication with all parties. As we have said, we want to see the parties resolve this dispute and restore unity among our partners in the region, while ensuring all countries are stopping funding for terrorist groups.”


* * *


And while the US is still trying to decide on whose side it wants to be in the ongoing conflict, Russia wasted no time and as Reuters reported yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin had telephone discussions with the leaders of Qatar and Bahrain, stressing the need for diplomacy to end the dispute between Qatar and several other Arab states.





Moscow is trying to tread cautiously in the dispute, since it wants good relations with both Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Russia backs President Bashar al-Assad in the six-year-long Syria conflict and is close to Iran, which has fraught ties with the Saudis.



Moscow sold a stake in its state oil champion Rosneft to Qatar last year and has been coordinating oil output cuts with the Saudis as part of a global pact to lift oil prices.



The Kremlin, which announced the phone calls with the leaders of Qatar and Bahrain in two separate statements on its website on Saturday, did not say when they happened. It clarified that they happened on the initiative of Qatar and Bahrain.



"Vladimir Putin stressed the importance of political-diplomatic efforts aimed at overcoming differences of opinion and the normalization of the difficult situation that exists," said the statement on the talks between Putin and Qatar"s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.


And the punchline: "the Russian and Qatari leaders also discussed cooperation between their countries in energy and investment." In other words, as the Gulf region copntinues to split itself apart, and the strategic role of the US in the region remains unclear, Russia is more than happy to step in and fill whatever power void has been created. We look forward to Russian hacker being blamed for yet another tactically prudent and rational move by the Kremlin.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Arab States Issue 13 Demands To Qatar - Include Unfriending Iran, Shutting Down Al-Jazeera And Nixing Turkish Base

Content originally published at iBankCoin.com


Two days after the US State Department formally inquired about WTF is going on between Arab States and Qatar, the countries of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Baahrain, and the UAE sent a list of 13 demands to the tiny Gulf nation to be met within 10 days in order to lift their total blockade of the country. Among them - reducing diplomatic ties with Iran, shutting down broadcaster Al Jazeera (and affiliates), and immediately cease working to open a Turkish military base announced in May of 2016. Also interesting is the demand that Qatar give up their intel on terrorist groups they have supported and "provide all databases related to oppositionists..." (Scroll down for full list of demands)


This formal list comes on the heels of a June 6th rumor that Arab States issued a list of 10 demands to be fulfilled within 24 hours, however Qatar said they never received them according to Al Jazeera journalists who are now dusting off their resumes.


Embargo


On June 5th, news broke that Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt had cut off diplomatic ties with Qatar over accusations of "spreading chaos" by "funding terrorism and supporting Iran" - shutting down all land, sea, and air crossings with the tiny energy-rich nation that has the highest per capita income in the world. Qatari visitors and residents were given two weeks to leave - while diplomats had just 48 hours.



 While Qatar has been friendly with Iran for years, the prelude to the embargo began after a broadcast which showed Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani speaking with no audio - and scrolling text at the bottom of the screen which stated his support for Iran and terrorist groups. Qatar claims the broadcast was "hacked."


After the broadcast, Saudi Arabia and the UAE blocked Qatari news organization Al-Jazeera.





Amid Qatar’s denials, Saudi-owned satellite television networks immediately began airing repeated stories about the disputed comments. By early Wednesday morning, those living in the UAE and subscribers to local cable providers couldn’t access the channels of Al-Jazeera, the pan-Arab satellite broadcaster based in the Qatari capital, Doha.



Attempts to reach its websites brought up a warning from the UAE’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority saying the site “contains content that is prohibited.”



In Saudi Arabia, internet users also found Al-Jazeera websites blocked with a warning from the kingdom’s Culture and Information Ministry.


-WaPo



Full List of demands (translated by @hxhassan)


1. Qatar must reduce diplomatic representation with Iran


2. Qatar must immoderately shut down the Turkish military base that is being established


3. Qatar must announce severance of ties with terrorist, ideological & sectarian orgs: MB, ISIS, AQ, HTS, Hizbollah


4. Qatar must cease any funding activities to extremist and terrorist individuals


5. Qatar must hand over all designated terrorists


6. Qatar must shut down Al Jazeera and all affiliated channels


7. Qatar must stop interference in these countries" domestic andforeign affairs; stop naturalisation of their citizens; extradite such citizens


8. Qatar must provide reparations to these countries for any opportunity costs incurred over the past few years because of Qatari policies. (How do they even begin to comply with this in 10 days?)


9. Qatar must become in sync with its Gulf and Arab neighbourhood on all levels, and to activate Riyadh Agreement 2013/2014


10. Qatar must provide all databases related to oppositionists that it provided support to & clarify what help was provided.


11. Qatar must all media outlets backed by it directly or indirectly, like Arabi21, Rasd, New Arab, Middle East Eye, Mkamlin, Sharq etc


12. These demands must be agreed within 10 days, otherwise they would be invalidated.


13. Agreement will involve clear goals and mechanism, monthly reports in the first year, every three months the next & annually for 10 years


If these demands are not met - it may only be a matter of time before Qatar catches a case of regime change...


  


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Wednesday, June 21, 2017

CNN Caught Faking News Again: Qatar Says News Agency Hacking Linked To Middle East, Not Russia

A couple of weeks ago we expressed some level of "amazement" at just how sophisticated, efficient and pervasive the "Russian hacking" community had become after CNN reported that they had managed to hack into a Qatari News Agency and post a "fake" news story all in an apparent attempt to drive a wedge between the U.S., Qatar and some of it"s Gulf Arab neighbors.


Think about that for a minute.  Set aside, if you will, the hacking event itself for just a moment and imagine how good the Russians had to be to know exactly what news story needed to be planted inside the Qatari news agency to provoke an immediate severing of diplomatic ties by numerous Arab neighboring states...it truly is mind boggling how it all played out exactly the way the Russians planned...these "Russian hackers" are certainly not a bunch of amateurs.


And while that may sound like a joke, it is, quite unfortunately, not...at least it wasn"t at CNN anyway.  Here are the details, as they were previously reported by CNN:





The FBI recently sent a team of investigators to Doha to help the Qatari government investigate the alleged hacking incident, Qatari and US government officials say.



Intelligence gathered by the US security agencies indicates that Russian hackers were behind the intrusion first reported by the Qatari government two weeks ago, US officials say. Qatar hosts one of the largest US military bases in the region.



The alleged involvement of Russian hackers intensifies concerns by US intelligence and law enforcement agencies that Russia continues to try some of the same cyber-hacking measures on US allies that intelligence agencies believe it used to meddle in the 2016 elections.



The Russian goal appears to be to cause rifts among the US and its allies. In recent months, suspected Russian cyber activities, including the use of fake news stories, have turned up amid elections in France, Germany and other countries.



As it turns out, it"s somewhat ironic that CNN accused Russia of spreading "fake news stories" that "have turned up amid elections in France, Germany and other countries" because, as Reuters reports today, their entire Qatari hacking narrative was all fake news.


According to reports from Qatar"s attorney general, it was an Arab neighbor state that severed ties with Doha (i.e. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and/or the United Arab Emirates) that was responsible for the hacking of Qatar"s state news agency and not the Russians. 





Qatar"s attorney general said on Tuesday his country has evidence that the hacking of Qatar"s state news agency was linked to countries that have severed ties with Doha.



Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates cut their ties with Doha earlier this month over comments alleged to have been made by the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and posted briefly on the Qatar News Agency"s website on May 23 which Doha said had been hacked.



"Qatar has evidence that certain iPhones originating from countries laying siege to Qatar were used in the hack," the Qatari Attorney General Ali Bin Fetais al-Marri told reporters in Doha.



Of course, just like the last time CNN got caught faking news, we are quite confident they will promptly retract their erroneous reporting and offer yet another apology to their readers for the unfortunate mistake created by their increasingly misinformed anonymous sources.


CNN



* * *


For those who missed it, below is our original post detailing the events leading up to the hacking of Qatar"s state news agency.


In an opportune coincidence, when discussing the Qatar crisis earlier today, we laid out the "official narrative" behind the dramatic fallout in diplomacy between Qatar and Saudi Arabia.





According to the official narrative, the reason for the latest Gulf crisis in which a coalition of Saudi-led states cut off diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar, is because - to everyone"s "stunned amazement" - Qatar was funding terrorists, and after Trump"s recent visit to Saudi Arabia in which he urged a crackdown on financial support of terrorism, and also following the FT"s report that Qatar has directly provided $1 billion in funding to Iran and al-Qaeda spinoffs, Saudi Arabia finally had had enough of its "rogue" neighbor, which in recent years had made ideologically unacceptable overtures toward both Shia Iran and Russia.



There was another detail that we should have mentioned: on May 23, a news report from the Qatari News Agency attributed to the the country"s ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, criticized US foreign policy in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump"s visit to Saudi Arabia, questioned whether the US President would last in office, and also appeared friendly to Iran.  Following the publication of the report which infuriated Qatar"s anti-Iranian friends and GCC members, Qatar said its state news agency had been hacked, although the report continued to be carried by media in some other Gulf Arab states, which as Reuters said at the time "suggested renewed strains between Qatar and some of its Gulf Arab neighbors."


"The Qatar News Agency (QNA) website has been hacked by an unknown entity. A false statement attributed to His Highness has been published," the Gulf Arab state"s government communications office said. "An ongoing investigation will be put in place to look into this matter. The statement published has no basis whatsoever, and the competent authorities in the State of Qatar will hold all those (involved) accountable." The incident took place four days after Qatar complained publicly that it was the target of "an orchestrated barrage" of criticism by unknown parties in the run-up to Trump"s visit alleging the Gulf state supported terrorist groups in the Middle East.


That said, the hacking did not figure anywhere in the "official narrative" because it was not part of the list of grievances voiced by Saudi Arabia and various nation states when they cut ties with Qatar on Tuesday, which they did not for the allegedly hacked statement, but because the small nation was supposedly funding terrorists. In fact, as we reported earlier today, in an ultimatum issued by Saudi Arabia, the oil-rich Kingdom demanded that Qatar cut all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, organizations which Saudi Arabia, its Arab allies and the current Egyptian regime, consider terrorist groups.


However, the reason we bring it up, is because it now appears that not only did Russians hack the US election, they also precipitated the Qatar crisis.


At least according to CNN, which citing "briefed US officials" says that US investigators believe it was Russian hackers who breached Qatar"s state news agency and planted the abovementioned fake news report that "contributed to a crisis among the US" closest Gulf allies." Which is ironic because, again going back to the "official narrative", it was Qatar"s support for terrorism, not a "hacked statement", that precipitated the crisis, but whatever: there was an alleged hacking, and who better to fill the void of hacker than, guess who, the Russians.


Here are the details, according to CNN:





The FBI recently sent a team of investigators to Doha to help the Qatari government investigate the alleged hacking incident, Qatari and US government officials say.



Intelligence gathered by the US security agencies indicates that Russian hackers were behind the intrusion first reported by the Qatari government two weeks ago, US officials say. Qatar hosts one of the largest US military bases in the region.



The alleged involvement of Russian hackers intensifies concerns by US intelligence and law enforcement agencies that Russia continues to try some of the same cyber-hacking measures on US allies that intelligence agencies believe it used to meddle in the 2016 elections.



Why would Russia hack Qatar? Because according to the US officials CNN spoke to "the Russian goal appears to be to cause rifts among the US and its allies. In recent months, suspected Russian cyber activities, including the use of fake news stories, have turned up amid elections in France, Germany and other countries"


Let"s ignore for now that France already confirmed that there were no traces of Russian hackers in the French election (it would have been a different story if Macron had lost).


Let"s algo ignore that just yesterday the FT reported that the trigger behind the crisis was a "hunting party of 26 Qataris in southern Iraq" who were ambushed and captured by the Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militia Kata’eb Hizbollah, a hostage situation which Qatar eventually used as a pretext to give Iran $700 million in cash and another $200m-$300m to Islamist groups in Syria, mostly to Tahrir al-Sham, also known as al-Qaeda.


Let"s certainly ignore that none other than Bloomberg mused this morning that the long-running conflict between Qatar and the Saudis is the result of the true reason for the tension between the two nations: natural gas, and specifically Qatar"s dominance in the production and export of LNG, which affords the small nation political independence from Saudi Arabia. Because upon reflection, and after "intelligence gathered by US security agencies" somewhere in Qatar, it was a Russian-hacked press statement in the Qatar media that was the reason for the crisis.


So please ignore all you have read so far about the reasons behind the Qatar crisis: about Qatar funding terrorists, about Doha having ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, about Qatari hunting parties in Iraq, and about natural gas.


It was the Russians.


For those who need to take a deep breath after all that, now is a good time because it only get more farcical. Back to CNN:





It"s not yet clear whether the US has tracked the hackers in the Qatar incident to Russian criminal organizations or to the Russian security services blamed for the US election hacks. One official noted that based on past intelligence, "not much happens in that country without the blessing of the government."



That"s the old "if anything happens in Russia, Putin knows all about it" gambit, which was used early on during the Russian election hacking scandal, and which appears to have faded somewhat, so now is a great time to bring it back to the surface.


Speaking to CNN, Qatar"s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said the FBI has confirmed the hack and the planting of fake news.





"Whatever has been thrown as an accusation is all based on misinformation and we think that the entire crisis being based on misinformation," the foreign minister told CNN"s Becky Anderson. "Because it was started based on fabricated news, being wedged and being inserted in our national news agency which was hacked and proved by the FBI."



Sheikh Saif Bin Ahmed Al-Thani, director of the Qatari Government Communications Office, confirmed that Qatar"s Ministry of Interior is working with the FBI and the United Kingdom"s National Crime Agency on the ongoing hacking investigation of the Qatar News Agency.



"The Ministry of Interior will reveal the findings of the investigation when completed," he told CNN.



The above was already known, the only missing link was the identity of the alleged hackers. And that"s where the FBI and the CIA stepped in, because just days after the Qatari hacking, US intel services, who are supposed to be tracking down Russian hacking leads in the US election hacking scandal, had some free time, flew to Doha and were quick to uncover the missing Russian trace.


Ironically, the latest "Russian connection" emerged just hours after Trump - supposedly the recipient of Russian hacking generosity himself - slammed Qatar for financing terrorism. He did not address the false news report.


"So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off," Trump said in a series of tweets. "They said they would take a hard line on funding extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!"


Well, no, because according to CNN it wasn"t terrorism that sparked this whole thing. It was... Russian hackers. Meanwhile, the real sponsors of terrorism in the region, Saudi Arabia which recently signed US weapons deals amounting to over a hundred billion dollars got a clean pass, now that Qatar emerged as the Middle eastern bogeyman. incidentally, 15 of 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi citizens and last year, Congress passed a bill allowing US citizens to sue Saudi Arabia for its involvement in Sept 11.


CNN said that neither the FBI nor the CIA would comment. A spokeswoman for the Qatari embassy in Washington said the investigation is ongoing and its results would be released publicly soon, but not soon enough, and certainly not before CNN managed to break yet another geopolitical crisis being blamed on Russia.


* * *


Sarcasm aside, if indeed this is the story Qatar is going with, it should provide the country with an "out" from the 24 hour ultimatum that Saudi Arabia gave to Qatar as reported earlier, even if Saudi demands had nothing to do with a "hacked statement", and instead the two main demands by Saudi Arabia are that Qatar end all ties Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.


Even more amusing, moments ago the Muslim country of Mauritania located in the African Maghreb joined the Saudi alliance, and also cut diplomatic ties with Qatar, saying that Qatar propagated "extremist ideas and spread anarchy and tensions in many Arab countries causing big humanitarian disasters in these countries, in Europe and in the world." 


Wait for it... it was the Russians. 


* * *


The silver lining to all of the above is that the Comey hearing, which earlier today lost some of its pay-per-view appeal after it was reported that the former FBI director would not accuse Trump of obstructing justice, just got interesting again.

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

To Bypass Food Embargo, Qatar Will Pay $8 Million To Airlift 4,000 Cows

Yesterday we reported that as the Qatar crisis continues with no resolution in sight, in an act of generosity toward its distressed Gulf neighbor, Iran dispatched four cargo planes of food to Qatar and plans to provide 100 tonnes of fruit and vegetable every day. Qatar has also been holding talks with Iran and Turkey to secure food and water supplies after Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain cut links, accusing Doha of supporting terrorism.


However, any stopgap measures implemented so far are not nearly enough to compensate for all the food imports lost as a result of the gulf blockade. So, for the nation with the highest GDP/capita in the world, where money is largely not an object, an ingenious solution has emerged.


Call it the biggest bovine airlift in history, as Bloomberg puts it. Because while the "showdown between Qatar and its neighbors has disrupted trade, split families and threatened to alter long-standing geopolitical alliances", it has prompted one enterprising Qatari businessman to fly 4,000 cows to the Gulf desert in an act of resistance and opportunity to fill the void left by a collapse in the supply of fresh milk.



The reason for the dramatic "solution" to the millk embargo is that most of Qatar"s fresh milk and dairy products, meant for Doha’s more than 1 million residents, came from Saudi Arabia up until a week ago. That supply was cut off after the kingdom and its allies cut transport links with "a country that spends $500 million a week to prepare stadiums and a metro before the soccer World Cup in 2022."


According to Bloomberg"s calculations, it will take as many as 60 flights for Qatar Airways to deliver the 590-kilogram beasts that Moutaz Al Khayyat, chairman of Power International Holding, bought in Australia and the U.S. “This is the time to work for Qatar,” he said. In addition to the abovementioned airlifted Turkish dairy goods and Iranian fruit and vegetables, there’s also a campaign to buy home-grown produce. Signs with colors of the Qatari flag have been placed next to dairy products in stores. One sign dangling from the ceiling said: “Together for the support of local products.”


“Our government has made sure we have no shortages and we are grateful for that. We have no fear. No one will die of hunger.”


“It’s a message of defiance, that we don’t need others,” said Umm Issa, 40, a government employee perusing the shelves of a supermarket before taking a carton of Turkish milk to try.


Only you do, and those who provide the much needed milk will get even richer than they already are.


For Al Khayaat, whose main business is a construction firm that built Qatar’s biggest mall, the cow-a-drop may be a slam dunk business decision. He has been expanding the company"s agricultural business at a farm 50 kilometers north of Doha. Food security is part of Qatar’s government strategy to steer the economy away from petrodollars, known, like in Saudi Arabia, as “Vision 2030.” And what better way to aggressively grow that business than at a time when it is your countrymen"s patriotic duty to buy your goods.





On a site covering the equivalent of almost 70 soccer fields, new grey sheds line two strips of verdant grass in the desert with a road running through the middle up to a small mosque. It produces sheep milk and meat and there were already plans to import the cows by sea. Then Qatar was ostracized, so the project was expedited.



Fresh milk production will start by the end of the month rather than September and will eventually cover a third of Qatar’s demand by mid-July, Al Khayyat told Bloomberg at his office in Doha. Facilities for the Holstein cows are ready, though the company will take a hit on the shipping cost for the animals, which increased more than five times to $8 million.


Which amounts to $2,000 per cow. At that price, it was not immediately clear if the cows would fly business or first class.

Thursday, June 8, 2017

Qatar Puts Military On Highest State Of Alert Over Fears Of Imminent Incursion

Yesterday"s news that Saudi Arabia has issued an ultimatum to Qatar, listing ten demands among which that Qatar end all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, has prompted a dramatic response by the small Gulf nation, and according to a just released report by Arabic CNN (and confirmed locally) US officials have said they have observed increased Qatari military activity as the country placed its forces "on the highest state of alert" over fears of an imminent military incursion.



The sources add that the Qatari military has brought up 16 Leopard tanks out of storage in Doha in preparation for a potential military incursion by surrounding Gulf states. Furthermore, the Qatari Ministry of Defense reportedly also sent a letter to Saudi, UAE and Bahraini governments, saying they would fire on any naval ships from those countries that enter into its waters, a US official said. US officials have said the situation in Qatar has not affected US military operations and security in Qatar.


The escalation comes at the same time as president Donald Trump allegedly changed course on Qatar, a day after praising a move by other Gulf nations to sever diplomatic relations with Doha, which hosts a US military base crucial to the fight against ISIS. CNN reports that in a phone call with the Qatari Emir, Trump "extended an olive branch," offering to help the parties resolve their differences by inviting them to a White House meeting if necessary.


In a description of the Wednesday call, the White House said Trump "emphasized the importance of all countries in the region working together to prevent the financing of terrorist organizations and stop the promotion of extremist ideology."


Trump"s latest flip flop echoed that of his secretaries of Defense and State, who emphasized Tuesday the need for Gulf unity and the importance of the US partnership with Qatar, home to the Al Udeid Air Base, the main regional center for air missions against ISIS. 


Separately, the WSJ validated yesterday"s reports about a Saudi ultimatum, reporting late on Wednesday that leading Arab states are drawing up a list of demands that Qatar must meet to return to normal diplomatic and economic relations, including steps to significantly scale back the Al Jazeera media network. Oddly enough, there was no mention of "Russian hackers."


Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and their allies are also seeking guarantees that Qatar’s government will stop its alleged financing of Middle East extremist groups and sever relations with the political leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood, a global Islamist movement, according to these officials.





Senior U.S. officials said Mr. Trump told the Arab monarchs he is prepared to mediate the dispute between the Arab states, some of whom host major American military installations. But the Trump administration stressed it needed a clear list of grievances to pass on to Qatar’s leadership, and that Washington wouldn’t necessarily endorse them.



These Arab and U.S. officials said this official list of demands is being compiled and could be completed in the coming days. Qatar’s ambassador to Washington, Meshal bin Hamad Al Thani, said in an interview on Wednesday that his government still didn’t know the specifics behind these Arab states’ decision to sever ties. He stressed that Doha is open to the Trump administration trying to mediate a diplomatic resolution.



“Until now, there have been no clear requests,” said Mr. Al Thani, a member of Qatar’s ruling family. “We are working toward de-escalation.” Saudi and Emirati officials have publicly accused Qatar of channeling funds to al Qaeda-linked groups in Syria and Yemen and providing a diplomatic safe-haven for the Muslim Brotherhood. Ambassador Al Thani denied Qatar knowingly has provided funding to any terrorist organizations. He said Doha is willing to take additional actions.



The reports come hours after Turkey, a government friendly to Qatar, approved a bill allowing expedited troop deployment to its base in Qatar. As reported earlier, the bill"s passage would allow Turkish troops to be deployed in Qatar and approve an accord between the two countries on military training cooperation.


* * *


As we reported last night, speaking to Al Jazeera, analyst Giorgio Cafiero of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, DC, said: "I think the Kuwaitis as well as Omanis ... fear the prospects of these tensions escalating in ways which could undermine the interest of all six members of the GCC.





"There are many analysts who believe that a potential break-up of the GCC has to be considered right now. If these countries fail to resolve their issues and such tensions reaches new heights, we have to be very open to the possibility of these six Arab countries no longer being able to unite under the banner of one council," said Cafiero.



He added that if tension escalates, there could be a "military confrontation".



It is this contingency that Qatar is now preparing for.

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Saudi Arabia Gives Qatar 24 Hour Ultimatum As Analysts Warn Of "Military Confrontation"

Shortly after imposing a naval blockade in the immediate  aftermath of the Qatar diplomatic crisis, one which left the small Gulf nation not only politically isolated and with severed ties to its neighbors but potentially locked out of maritime trade and crippling its oil and LNG exports, on Tuesday SkyNews Arabia reported that Saudi Arabia has given Qatar a 24 hours ultimatum, starting tonight, to fulfill 10 conditions that have been conveyed to Kuwait, which is currently involved in the role of a mediator between Saudi and Qatar.




According to media report, among the key demands by Saudi Arabia is that Qatar end all ties Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.



While there was little additional information on the Ultimatum and more importantly what happens should Qatar not comply, Al Jazeera reported that Kuwait"s emir, Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah, left Saudi Arabia on Tuesday after holding mediation talks with the Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz to try to defuse an escalating crisis between Arab countries and Qatar. No details were given on the talks.


In addition to Saudi Arabia"s aggressive approach, Egypt"s Foreign Ministry accused Qatar of taking an "antagonist approach" towards Cairo and said "all attempts to stop it from supporting terrorist groups failed". Qatar denied the allegations, with a Foreign Ministry statement describing them as "baseless" on Monday.


Speaking to Al Jazeera, analyst Giorgio Cafiero of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, DC, said: "I think the Kuwaitis as well as Omanis ... fear the prospects of these tensions escalating in ways which could undermine the interest of all six members of the GCC.


"There are many analysts who believe that a potential break-up of the GCC has to be considered right now."


"If these countries fail to resolve their issues and such tensions reaches new heights, we have to be very open to the possibility of these six Arab countries no longer being able to unite under the banner of one council," said Cafiero.


He added that if tension escalates, some have warned of a "military confrontation".

US Intelligence Says Russian Hackers Are To Blame For Qatar Crisis: CNN

It"s official: there is nothing in this world that Russian hackers can"t do.


* * *


In an opportune coincidence, when discussing the Qatar crisis earlier today, we laid out the "official narrative" behind the dramatic fallout in diplomacy between Qatar and Saudi Arabia.





According to the official narrative, the reason for the latest Gulf crisis in which a coalition of Saudi-led states cut off diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar, is because - to everyone"s "stunned amazement" - Qatar was funding terrorists, and after Trump"s recent visit to Saudi Arabia in which he urged a crackdown on financial support of terrorism, and also following the FT"s report that Qatar has directly provided $1 billion in funding to Iran and al-Qaeda spinoffs, Saudi Arabia finally had had enough of its "rogue" neighbor, which in recent years had made ideologically unacceptable overtures toward both Shia Iran and Russia.



There was another detail that we should have mentioned: on May 23, a news report from the Qatari News Agency attributed to the the country"s ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, criticized US foreign policy in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump"s visit to Saudi Arabia, questioned whether the US President would last in office, and also appeared friendly to Iran.  Following the publication of the report which infuriated Qatar"s anti-Iranian friends and GCC members, Qatar said its state news agency had been hacked, although the report continued to be carried by media in some other Gulf Arab states, which as Reuters said at the time "suggested renewed strains between Qatar and some of its Gulf Arab neighbors."


"The Qatar News Agency (QNA) website has been hacked by an unknown entity. A false statement attributed to His Highness has been published," the Gulf Arab state"s government communications office said. "An ongoing investigation will be put in place to look into this matter. The statement published has no basis whatsoever, and the competent authorities in the State of Qatar will hold all those (involved) accountable." The incident took place four days after Qatar complained publicly that it was the target of "an orchestrated barrage" of criticism by unknown parties in the run-up to Trump"s visit alleging the Gulf state supported terrorist groups in the Middle East.


That said, the hacking did not figure anywhere in the "official narrative" because it was not part of the list of grievances voiced by Saudi Arabia and various nation states when they cut ties with Qatar on Tuesday, which they did not for the allegedly hacked statement, but because the small nation was supposedly funding terrorists. In fact, as we reported earlier today, in an ultimatum issued by Saudi Arabia, the oil-rich Kingdom demanded that Qatar cut all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, organizations which Saudi Arabia, its Arab allies and the current Egyptian regime, consider terrorist groups.


However, the reason we bring it up, is because it now appears that not only did Russians hack the US election, they also precipitated the Qatar crisis.


At least according to CNN, which citing "briefed US officials" says that US investigators believe it was Russian hackers who breached Qatar"s state news agency and planted the abovementioned fake news report that "contributed to a crisis among the US" closest Gulf allies." Which is ironic because, again going back to the "official narrative", it was Qatar"s support for terrorism, not a "hacked statement", that precipitated the crisis, but whatever: there was an alleged hacking, and who better to fill the void of hacker than, guess who, the Russians.


Here are the details, according to CNN:





The FBI recently sent a team of investigators to Doha to help the Qatari government investigate the alleged hacking incident, Qatari and US government officials say.



Intelligence gathered by the US security agencies indicates that Russian hackers were behind the intrusion first reported by the Qatari government two weeks ago, US officials say. Qatar hosts one of the largest US military bases in the region.



The alleged involvement of Russian hackers intensifies concerns by US intelligence and law enforcement agencies that Russia continues to try some of the same cyber-hacking measures on US allies that intelligence agencies believe it used to meddle in the 2016 elections.



Why would Russia hack Qatar? Because according to the US officials CNN spoke to "the Russian goal appears to be to cause rifts among the US and its allies. In recent months, suspected Russian cyber activities, including the use of fake news stories, have turned up amid elections in France, Germany and other countries"


Let"s ignore for now that France already confirmed that there were no traces of Russian hackers in the French election (it would have been a different story if Macron had lost).


Let"s algo ignore that just yesterday the FT reported that the trigger behind the crisis was a "hunting party of 26 Qataris in southern Iraq" who were ambushed and captured by the Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militia Kata’eb Hizbollah, a hostage situation which Qatar eventually used as a pretext to give Iran $700 million in cash and another $200m-$300m to Islamist groups in Syria, mostly to Tahrir al-Sham, also known as al-Qaeda.


Let"s certainly ignore that none other than Bloomberg mused this morning that the long-running conflict between Qatar and the Saudis is the result of the true reason for the tension between the two nations: natural gas, and specifically Qatar"s dominance in the production and export of LNG, which affords the small nation political independence from Saudi Arabia. Because upon reflection, and after "intelligence gathered by US security agencies" somewhere in Qatar, it was a Russian-hacked press statement in the Qatar media that was the reason for the crisis.


So please ignore all you have read so far about the reasons behind the Qatar crisis: about Qatar funding terrorists, about Doha having ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, about Qatari hunting parties in Iraq, and about natural gas.


It was the Russians.


For those who need to take a deep breath after all that, now is a good time because it only get more farcical. Back to CNN:





It"s not yet clear whether the US has tracked the hackers in the Qatar incident to Russian criminal organizations or to the Russian security services blamed for the US election hacks. One official noted that based on past intelligence, "not much happens in that country without the blessing of the government."



That"s the old "if anything happens in Russia, Putin knows all about it" gambit, which was used early on during the Russian election hacking scandal, and which appears to have faded somewhat, so now is a great time to bring it back to the surface.


Speaking to CNN, Qatar"s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said the FBI has confirmed the hack and the planting of fake news.





"Whatever has been thrown as an accusation is all based on misinformation and we think that the entire crisis being based on misinformation," the foreign minister told CNN"s Becky Anderson. "Because it was started based on fabricated news, being wedged and being inserted in our national news agency which was hacked and proved by the FBI."



Sheikh Saif Bin Ahmed Al-Thani, director of the Qatari Government Communications Office, confirmed that Qatar"s Ministry of Interior is working with the FBI and the United Kingdom"s National Crime Agency on the ongoing hacking investigation of the Qatar News Agency.



"The Ministry of Interior will reveal the findings of the investigation when completed," he told CNN.



The above was already known, the only missing link was the identity of the alleged hackers. And that"s where the FBI and the CIA stepped in, because just days after the Qatari hacking, US intel services, who are supposed to be tracking down Russian hacking leads in the US election hacking scandal, had some free time, flew to Doha and were quick to uncover the missing Russian trace.


Ironically, the latest "Russian connection" emerged just hours after Trump - supposedly the recipient of Russian hacking generosity himself - slammed Qatar for financing terrorism. He did not address the false news report.


"So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off," Trump said in a series of tweets. "They said they would take a hard line on funding extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!"


Well, no, because according to CNN it wasn"t terrorism that sparked this whole thing. It was... Russian hackers. Meanwhile, the real sponsors of terrorism in the region, Saudi Arabia which recently signed US weapons deals amounting to over a hundred billion dollars got a clean pass, now that Qatar emerged as the Middle eastern bogeyman. incidentally, 15 of 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi citizens and last year, Congress passed a bill allowing US citizens to sue Saudi Arabia for its involvement in Sept 11.


CNN said that neither the FBI nor the CIA would comment. A spokeswoman for the Qatari embassy in Washington said the investigation is ongoing and its results would be released publicly soon, but not soon enough, and certainly not before CNN managed to break yet another geopolitical crisis being blamed on Russia.


* * *


Sarcasm aside, if indeed this is the story Qatar is going with, it should provide the country with an "out" from the 24 hour ultimatum that Saudi Arabia gave to Qatar as reported earlier, even if Saudi demands had nothing to do with a "hacked statement", and instead the two main demands by Saudi Arabia are that Qatar end all ties Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.


Even more amusing, moments ago the Muslim country of Mauritania located in the African Maghreb joined the Saudi alliance, and also cut diplomatic ties with Qatar, saying that Qatar propagated "extremist ideas and spread anarchy and tensions in many Arab countries causing big humanitarian disasters in these countries, in Europe and in the world." 


Wait for it... it was the Russians. 


* * *


The silver lining to all of the above is that the Comey hearing, which earlier today lost some of its pay-per-view appeal after it was reported that the former FBI director would not accuse Trump of obstructing justice, just got interesting again.

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

"Forget Terrorism": The Real Reason Behind The Qatar Crisis Is Natural Gas

According to the official narrative, the reason for the latest Gulf crisis in which a coalition of Saudi-led states cut off diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar, is because - to everyone"s "stunned amazement" - Qatar was funding terrorists, and after Trump"s recent visit to Saudi Arabia in which he urged a crackdown on financial support of terrorism, and also following the FT"s report that Qatar has directly provided $1 billion in funding to Iran and al-Qaeda spinoffs, Saudi Arabia finally had had enough of its "rogue" neighbor, which in recent years had made ideologically unacceptable overtures toward both Shia Iran and Russia.


However, as often happens, the official narrative is traditionally a convenient smokescreen from the real underlying tensions.


The real reason behind the diplomatic fallout may be far simpler, and once again has to do with a long-running and controversial topic, namely Qatar"s regional natural gas dominance.


Recall that many have speculated (with evidence going back as far back as 2012) that one of the reasons for the long-running Syria proxy war was nothing more complex than competing gas pipelines, with Qatar eager to pass its own pipeline, connecting Europe to its vast natural gas deposits, however as that would put Gazprom"s monopoly of European LNG supply in jeopardy, Russia had been firmly, and violently, against this strategy from the beginning and explains Putin"s firm support of the Assad regime and the Kremlin"s desire to prevent the replacement of the Syrian government with a puppet regime.


Note the purple line which traces the proposed Qatar-Turkey natural gas pipeline and note that all of the countries highlighted in red are part of a new coalition hastily put together after Turkey finally (in exchange for NATO’s acquiescence on Erdogan’s politically-motivated war with the PKK) agreed to allow the US to fly combat missions against ISIS targets from Incirlik. Now note which country along the purple line is not highlighted in red. That’s because Bashar al-Assad didn’t support the pipeline and now we’re seeing what happens when you’re a Mid-East strongman and you decide not to support something the US and Saudi Arabia want to get done.


Now, in a separate analysis, Bloomberg also debunks the "official narrative" behind the Gulf crisis and suggests that Saudi Arabia’s isolation of Qatar, "and the dispute’s long past and likely lingering future are best explained by natural gas."


The reasons for nat gas as the source of discord are numerous and start in 1995 "when the tiny desert peninsula was about to make its first shipment of liquid natural gas from the world’s largest reservoir. The offshore North Field, which provides virtually all of Qatar’s gas, is shared with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s hated rival."



The result to Qatar"s finances was similar to the windfall that Saudi Arabia reaped from its vast crude oil wealth.





The wealth that followed turned Qatar into not just the world’s richest nation, with an annual per-capita income of $130,000, but also the world’s largest LNG exporter. The focus on gas set it apart from its oil producing neighbors in the Gulf Cooperation Council and allowed it to break from domination by Saudi Arabia, which in Monday’s statement of complaint described Qataris as an “extension of their brethren in the Kingdom” as it cut off diplomatic relations and closed the border.



In short, over the past two decades, Qatar become the single biggest natural gas powerhouse in the region, with only Russia"s Gazprom able to challenge Qatar"s influence in LNG exports.



To be sure, Qatar has shown a remarkable ability to shift its ideological allegiance, with the FT reporting as recently as 2013, that initially Qatar was a staunch supporter, backer and financier of the Syrian rebels, tasked to topple the Assad regime, a process which could culminate with the creation of the much maligned trans-Syrian pipeline.





The tiny gas-rich state of Qatar has spent as much as $3bn over the past two years supporting the rebellion in Syria, far exceeding any other government, but is now being nudged aside by Saudi Arabia as the prime source of arms to rebels.



The cost of Qatar’s intervention, its latest push to back an Arab revolt, amounts to a fraction of its international investment portfolio. But its financial support for the revolution that has turned into a vicious civil war dramatically overshadows western backing for the opposition.



As the years passed, Qatar grew to comprehend that Russia would not allow its pipeline to traverse Syria, and as a result it strategically pivoted in a pro-Russia direction, and as we showed yesterday, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund agreed last year to invest $2.7 billion in Russia’s state-run Rosneft Oil, even as Qatar is host of the largest US military base in the region, US Central Command. This particular pivot may have also added to fears that Qatar was becoming a far more active supporter of a Russia-Iran-Syria axis in the region, its recent financial and ideological support of Iran notwithstanding.


As a result of the tiny nation"s growing financial and political "independence", its neighbors grew increasingly frustrated and concerned: “Qatar used to be a kind of Saudi vassal state, but it used the autonomy that its gas wealth created to carve out an independent role for itself,” said Jim Krane, energy research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, quoted by Bloomberg.


Furthermore, Qatar’s natural gas output has been "free from entanglement" - and political pressure - in the OPEC, the oil cartel that Saudi Arabia dominates.


“The rest of the region has been looking for an opportunity to clip Qatar’s wings.”


And, as Bloomberg adds, "that opportunity came with U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, when he called on “all nations of conscience” to isolate Iran. When Qatar disagreed publicly, in a statement the government later said was a product of hacking, the Saudi-led retribution followed."


To be sure, in a series of tweets, Trump himself doubled down on the "official narraitve", taking credit for Qatar"s isolation (perhaps forgetting that a US base is housed in the small nation).




The cynics may be forgiven to assume that if Trump is tweeting that the reason for Qatar"s isolation is "to end the horror of terrorism", even as the US just signed a $100+ billion arms deal with the single biggest supporter of terrorism in the world, Saudi Arabia, then indeed the Trump-endorsed "narrative" is to be dismissed outright.


Which again brings us back to nat gas, where Qatar rapidly emerged as the dominant, and lowest cost producer at a time when its neighbors started demanding the commodity on their own, giving the tiny state all the leverage. As Bloomberg adds "demand for natural gas to produce electricity and power industry has been growing in the Gulf states. They’re having to resort to higher-cost LNG imports and exploring difficult domestic gas formations that are expensive to get out of the ground, according to the research. Qatar’s gas has the lowest extraction costs in the world."


Of course, with financial wealth came the need to spread political infludence: "





Qatar gas wealth enabled it to develop foreign policies that came to irritate its neighbors. It backed the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and armed factions opposed by the UAE or Saudi Arabia in Libya and Syria. Gas also paid for a global television network, Al Jazeera, which at various times has embarrassed or angered most Middle Eastern governments.



And, above all, "gas prompted Qatar to promote a regional policy of engagement with Shiite Iran to secure the source of its wealth."


And here the source of tension emerged: because as Steven Wright, Ph.D. Associate Professor at Qatar University told Bloomberg, “you can question why Qatar has been unwilling to supply its neighboring countries, making them gas poor,” said Wright, the academic, speaking by telephone from the Qatari capital Doha. “There probably was an expectation that Qatar would sell gas to them at a discount price.”


It did not, and instead it took a step backward in 2005, when Qatar declared a moratorium on the further development of the North Field that could have provided more gas for local export, adding to the frustrations of its neighbors.





Qatar said it needed to test how the field was responding to its exploitation, denying that it was bending to sensitivities in Iran, which had been much slower to draw gas from its side of the shared field. That two-year moratorium was lifted in April, a decade late, after Iran for the first time caught up with Qatar’s extraction rates.



As Qatar refused to yield, the resentment grew.


“People here are scratching their heads as to exactly what the Saudis expect Qatar to do,” said Gerd Nonneman, professor of international relations and Gulf studies at Georgetown University’s Doha campus. “They seem to want Qatar to cave in completely, but it won’t call the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, because it isn’t. And it isn’t going to excommunicate Iran, because that would jeopardize a relationship that is just too fundamental to Qatar’s economic development.


* * *


Whether nat gas is the source of the Qatari isolation will depend on the next steps by both Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates and Egypt - are all highly reliant on Qatari gas via pipeline and LNG.


According to Reuters, traders startled by the development, have begun to plan for all eventualities, especially any upsets to piped gas supplies from Qatar to the UAE. The UAE consumes 1.8 billion cubic feet/day of Qatari gas via the Dolphin pipeline, and has LNG purchase agreements with its neighbor, leaving it doubly exposed to tit-for-tat measures, industry sources and traders said.



So far flows through Dolphin are unaffected but traders say even a partial shutdown would ripple through global gas markets by forcing the UAE to seek replacement LNG supply just as its domestic demand peaks.





With LNG markets in bearish mood and demand weak, the UAE could cope with Qatar suspending its two to three monthly LNG deliveries by calling on international markets, but Dolphin piped flows are too large to fully replace.



"A drop off in Dolphin deliveries would have a huge impact on LNG markets," one trader monitoring developments said.



And since it all boils down to who has the most leverage as this latest regional "balance of power" crisis unfolds, Qatar could simply take the Mutual Assured Destruction route, and halt all pipeline shipments to its neighbors crippling both theirs, and its own, economy in the process, to find just where the point of "max pain" is located.

Monday, June 5, 2017

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, & Bahrain Cut Diplomatic Ties, Shut All Borders With Qatar

Just days after president Trump left the region, a geopolitical earthquake is taking place in the Middle East tonight as the rift between Qatar and other members of the (likely extinct) Gulf Cooperation Council explodes with Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt cutting all diplomatic ties with Qatar accusing it of "speading chaos," by funding terrorism and supporting Iran.


The dispute between Qatar and the Gulf"s Arab countries started over a purported hack of Qatar"s state-run news agency. It has spiraled since, and appears to be climaxing now... just days after President Trump left the region.



As Al Arabiya reports, Bahrain has announced it is cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar, according to a statement carried on Bahrain News Agency.





The statement on Monday morning said Bahrain decided to sever ties with its neighbor “on the insistence of the State of Qatar to continue destabilizing the security and stability of the Kingdom of Bahrain and to intervene in its affairs”.



The statement also said Qatar’s incitement of the media and supporting of terrorist activities and financing groups linked to Iran were reasons behind the decision.



“(Qatar has) spread chaos in Bahrain in flagrant violation of all agreements and covenants and principles of international law Without regard to values, law or morals or consideration of the principles of good neighborliness or commitment to the constants of Gulf relations and the denial of all previous commitments,” the statement read.



Qatari citizens have 14 days to leave Bahraini territories while Qatari diplomats were given 48 hours to leave the country after being expelled. Meanwhile, Bahrain has also banned all of its citizens from visiting or residing in Qatar after the severance of ties.



Additionally, Bahrain has has closed both air and sea borders with Qatar.


Saudi Arabia then confirmed the same - cutting ties and shutting down all sea, airspace, and land crossings with Qatar as well as dissolving Qatar"s role in the Saudi-led coalition fighting against Yemen. Emirates, Etihad, Saudia, Gulf Air, and Egypt Air are no longer allowed to fly to Qatar and Saudi Arabia is providinhg facilities, services to Qatari pilgrims


Egypt then followed, confirming it was cutting diplomatic ties with


Then UAE confirmed it would cut ties, shut down all sky, water, and land crossings, and expel all Qataris within 48 hours.


The Maldives also just cut diplomatic ties with Qatar.


All of this happens within 24 hours of Iran calling out "The West" for ignoring the real sponsors of terrorism around the world and UK"s Labor party leader outright name-shaming Sauid Arabia"s funding of terrorism.


Qatari officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


As a reminder, documents obtained by Middle East Eye show strategic alliance includes pledge by Ankara to protect Gulf state from external threats...





In December 2015, Turkey announced, to the surprise of many, that it planned to establish a military base in Qatar. Behind the scenes, the agreement was about forming a major strategic alliance.



After a 100-year hiatus, Turkey is militarily back in the Gulf and ramping up its presence overseas. In January, Ankara announced that it would also establish a military base in Somalia.



Specific details about the Qatar agreement, which Turkey described as an alliance in the face of "common enemies", remain scant, but Middle East Eye has acquired copies of the agreements, as well as further details, which include a secret pledge by Ankara to protect Qatar from external threats.



Did Qatar just get scapegoated in the "war on terror"? One thing seems clear, support for a Syrian gas pipeline will be dwindling and with it the need for a Syrian war.


Notably, this raises further doubts about OPEC"s stability. As Bloomberg notes, while Middle East ructions have historically added risk premia to oil prices, discord here could theoretically put downward pressure on prices as OPEC members struggle to maintain unity and compliance on production cuts.