Trump"s Jerusalem Tit-For-Tat: Orders Saudis To ‘Immediately’ End Yemen Blockade

In a brief statement issued Wednesday afternoon, President Trump called on Saudi leadership to completely lift the years long Saudi military blockade on war-torn Yemen. The unexpected announcement came on the same day President Trump delivered an extremely controversial televised address wherein he gave official US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

“I have directed officials in my administration to call the leadership of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to request that they completely allow food, fuel, water and medicine to reach the Yemeni people who desperately need it,” Trump said through a White House press release. “This must be done for humanitarian reasons immediately.”

Image via Vice News

Though it"s unclear exactly why the directive was suddenly issued after years of humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen, it is likely connected with the widespread shock and condemnation from world leaders which immediately followed in the wake of Trump"s speech formally recognizing Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. The Yemen directive was published by the Office of the Press Secretary only a matter of two hours later.

And while Trump cites "humanitarian reasons" for the urgent directive requesting the lifting of the siege, Saudi Arabia has enforced a military blockade on deeply impoverished Yemen since it began bombing the country in 2015. Furthermore, media and human rights groups began reporting on the de facto naval blockade of Yemen"s ports - which quickly left over 20 million Yemeni civilians facing a dire humanitarian crisis - soon after the war began in March of 2015. This occurred as the US and UK stationed military and intelligence officers in Saudi command and control centers in order to assist in targeting Yemeni Houthi rebel locations.

As early as June 2015, for example, a Guardian investigation found that the US and UK were enabling the crippling blockade, which has been widely acknowledged as a "humanitarian disaster". According to the report, "nearly 80% of the population are in urgent need of food, water and medical aid, in a humanitarian disaster that aid agencies say has been dramatically worsened by a naval blockade imposed by an Arab coalition with US and British backing."

While it"s clear that the lifting of the siege is a welcome step in the right direction for the millions of suffering Yemeni men, women, and children impacted, the White House decision in reality has nothing to do with humanitarian concerns, as the US itself has for the past two years been partnering with the Saudis in all its actions in Yemen (also including Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Egypt, Sudan, and with the UK as a huge supplier of weapons).

Saudi airstrikes on the impoverished country, which have killed many thousands of civilians - a shocking percentage of children among them according to the UN - and displaced tens of thousands, have further involved the use of American military hardware. Cholera has recently made a comeback amidst the appalling war-time conditions, and civilian infrastructure such as hospitals have been bombed by the coalition. Though likely falling short of the true number, as of November 5,295 civilians have been killed and another 8,873 injured in the war, according to figures provided by the UN.

And the coalition"s military campaign greatly intensified this week following former President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s death, which resulted in an uptick in the aerial pounding of Sanaa, which was overrun by Houthi rebels. 

So why is Trump belatedly citing "humanitarian reasons" now?

As Middle East analyst Hassan Hassan says, it appears that today"s statement on Yemen is no doubt connected with what many described as the strong and vehement reaction to the earlier Jerusalem recognition move by both King Salman and MBS. "This sounds like a tit-for-tat statement concerning the Jerusalem move. What happened suddenly for this administration to care about Yemenis, esp given recent news the Saudi-led Coalition lifted some of the blockade?" observed Hassan Hassan shortly after the release of the Yemen directive.

This sounds like a tit-for-tat statement re Jerusalem move. What happened suddenly for this administration to care about Yemenis, esp given recent news the Saudi-led Coalition lifted some of the blockade? pic.twitter.com/xrtBjqkeBa

— Hassan Hassan ?????? (@hxhassan) December 6, 2017

No doubt, Trump understands how he can leverage regional allies on the issue of human rights anytime they don"t fall in line with the US position - he knows where the skeletons are buried as the US has long been in the trenches with Saudi Arabia and other gulf allies during the region"s "regime change" wars in places like Libya and Syria. But this goes the other way too, as we previously predicted of the recent Qatari-Saudi diplomatic war which resulted in both sides accusing the other of human rights abuses and aiding terrorism in the region: "the United States itself will not be spared in this new open season of airing dirty laundry as old allies turn on each other."

So while Trump suddenly and conveniently puts Saudi Arabia in the hot seat using human rights as an excuse, we should expect that Saudi Arabia will itself eventually retaliate, likely through some kind of leak or media interview. 

Trump has already received an immense amount of push back over his decision to recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital by moving the US embassy there. The countries condemning the move include the UK, France, Germany, Canada, Russia, China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Egypt, Jordan, as well as the EU and Arab League. 

As Trump finds he"s put himself in an isolated position over the Jerusalem move, and as he potentially lashes out further against US regional allies, things are about to get even more interesting in the Middle East.

France"s Macron Covers For Saudi Aggression

Authored by Finian Cunningham via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

France’s invitation to beleaguered Lebanese premier Saad Hariri for him and his family to spend “a few days in Paris” has been viewed as French President Emmanuel Macron stepping in with deft soft power to resolve tensions between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon.

Less charitably, what Macron is really doing is giving cynical cover to the Saudi rulers for their extraordinary acts of aggression towards Lebanon and their violation of that country’s sovereignty.

Two of Hariri’s children were left in Saudi capital Riyadh while he visited France over the weekend. Were they being used as hostages by the Saudis to ensure that Hariri maintains the Saudi spin on events? Certainly, the arrangement raises suspicions, but the French president sought instead to affect a “normal” nothing-is-unusual appearance.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun last week publicly accused Saudi Arabia of holding Hariri in Riyadh against his will. Aoun said the Saudi rulers were violating international law by detaining Hariri and forcing his resignation as prime minister of Lebanon. Such acts were tantamount to aggression, said President Aoun.

Yet Macron has said nothing about Saudi interference. He has instead turned reality on its head by censuring Iran for regional “aggression” and thereby backing Saudi claims that Iran is supplying ballistic missiles to Yemen. Iran swiftly condemned Macron for “stoking regional tensions”.

Credit goes to President Aoun for speaking out plainly, telling it like it is and expressing what many Lebanese citizens and many other observers around the world have concluded. The whole debacle is an outrageous affront to Lebanon and international law by the Saudi rulers, when it is taken into consideration Hariri’s hasty summoning to Saudi capital Riyadh earlier this month, his subsequent televised resignation speech on Saudi TV, and his long-delayed sojourn in that country. What is even more despicable is that the Saudi interference in the sovereign affairs of Lebanon is threatening to re-ignite a civil war within the small Mediterranean country, and, possibly worse, a war across the region with Iran.

Hariri has claimed in a later media interview, held in Saudi Arabia, and in reported communications with family and friends who are back in Lebanon, that he was not under duress while staying in Saudi Arabia. That claim beggars belief given the bizarre circumstances of Hariri’s sudden departure and his protracted nearly two-week stay in Saudi Arabia.

In any case, the president of Lebanon, Michel Aoun, has concluded that something is badly amiss in the saga, and he has explicitly accused Saudi rulers of violating his country’s sovereignty.

Therefore, if there were any principle or adherence to international law, the actions of Saudi Arabia should be condemned categorically by the international community, the UN, the European Union and France in particular owing to its historic relations with Lebanon as the former colonial power before independence in 1943.

But no. What we have instead are either shameful silence from Washington, or mealy-mouthed statements from the EU. The EU’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini issued a vague statement warning against “foreign interference” in the affairs of Lebanon. What kind of cowardly circumlocution is that?

Lebanon’s prime minister Saad Hariri was, in effect, detained by Saudi Arabia and forced to tender his resignation from public office as a matter of ultimatum. It has been reliably reported that the Wahhabi Saudi rulers were exasperated with the Shia group Hezbollah being part of the coalition government in Beirut. Hariri is a Saudi-sponsored Sunni politician who is antagonistic to Hezbollah and by extension, Iran. But apparently, he was not sufficiently hostile, in the view of his Saudi backers. Hence, Hariri was summoned to Riyadh and ordered to resign on November 4. (The defeat of the Saudi-sponsored covert terror war in Syria no doubt was a factor too in the timing.)

France’s President Macron is playing a particularly slippery game of pandering and expedience towards the Saudi despots.

As the Washington Post’s WorldView briefing reported last week: “French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that it was important to dispel the implication that Hariri was a Saudi prisoner.”

The newspaper goes on to quote Macron saying rather vacuously: “We need to have leaders who are free to express themselves. It’s important that [Hariri] is able to advance the political process in his country in the coming days and weeks.”

The question should be asked: why is it important for Macron to “dispel the implication that Hariri was a Saudi prisoner”?

From virtually all accounts, including that of Lebanese President Michel Aoun whose view should surely be paramount here, that is exactly what Hariri was made by the Saudis – a prisoner.

Three days before his summoning to Riyadh and his scripted resignation speech on November 4 – in which Hariri claimed with incredible drama that he was in danger of an assassination plot by Hezbollah and its ally Iran – it was reported that Hariri was having dinner with the French culture minister in Beirut. During their meal, he received a phone call. His demeanor darkened, and immediately departed from the table for a flight to Riyadh. Without the company of aides, Hariri was met on his arrival by Saudi officials who took his mobile phone from him. He was not greeted by senior Saudi rulers like Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which would have been customary diplomatic protocol.

Everything about the next two weeks of Hariri’s stay in Saudi Arabia signals a de facto detention against his will. Admittedly, he made a brief flight to the United Arab Emirates during the time period, which was claimed by the Saudis to be proof of his free movement. The UAE rulers are closely aligned with the House of Saud, and besides Hariri was soon back in his Riyadh residence, from where he continued to tweet to friends that he was “fine”.

This is nothing but a sham. The stark facts are that Saudi Arabia has brazenly interfered in the internal affairs of Lebanon, trying to force its prime minister to step down. Furthermore, the Saudi rulers have accused Lebanon of “acts of war” by allegedly supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen; the Saudis have also ordered their nationals to leave Lebanon; and there are reports emerging of the Saudis now pushing to suspend Beirut from the Arab League. This is reckless incendiary behavior by the Saudi rulers.

Should we be surprised though? Saudi Arabia has shown absolute criminal disregard for international law over its bombing and genocidal blockade of Yemen, where humanitarian aid groups have warned that 50,000 children may die this year due to enforced deprivation from the nearly three-year American and British-backed Saudi war on Yemen.

The absolute Saudi monarchy has also gone on an internal rampage of arresting its own government ministers and other businessmen in an audacious power-grab under the guise of “an anti-corruption drive”. Moreover, Saudi rulers have been instrumental in organizing a legally dubious trade and diplomatic blockade of Qatar over trumped claims that the latter is a stooge for Iran and singularly supporting terrorists (this from the Saudis who have bankrolled terrorist proxies to overthrow the government in Syria.)

The criminality and rogue conduct of Saudi Arabia is legion and brazenly in your face.

That is why the so-called “international community”, the UN, Washington, the European Union, and France in particular are deserving of withering censure. Their mealy-mouthed muted statements on Saudi misconduct towards Lebanon are a disgrace. They are complicit in wanton lawlessness by their pandering to Saudi despots.

But France’s Emmanuel Macron has emerged as the prime disgrace. His invitation to Saad Hariri and his family to come to France is a cynical move to give cover to the Saudi despots. Tellingly, on the announcement of the invitation, Macron said that “it was not an offer of exile”. That’s Macron making it all sugary nice as pie.

On Friday, the day before Hariri arrived in Paris, Macron actually accused Iran of “aggression” and has called for sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile defense program. So, Macron, sneakily, is giving the Saudi narrative succor, and blaming Iran, instead of condemning Riyadh for its flagrant interference and aggression.

Again, by inviting Hariri to Paris, Macron is indulging the Saudi-Hariri charade that all is “normal” – when in reality the sordid shenanigans over the past two weeks amount to an outrageous and very grave violation of international law and of a neighboring country’s sovereignty by the Saudis.

With this kind of cynical “diplomacy”, Macron is showing that France is far from capable of having any leadership role or moral authority in the Middle East or the world.

Of course, France’s vested economic interests with the Saudi despots, from arms sales to energy and infrastructure projects, are central to Macron’s expedient calculations.

Macron’s ambitions of engendering some kind of renaissance of France as a global power are futile and nothing but sheer vanity. The cowardice of the French president in the face of Saudi aggression towards Lebanon shows that Macron and his pretensions of “global power” are a puff of cheap cosmetic powder.

Millions Face Starvation In Yemen Due To US-Ally Saudi Arabia"s Blockade

Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Two years ago, German intelligence warned the world of the unique risks Saudi Arabia posed to the region.

I covered it at the time in the post, German Intelligence Warns – Saudi Arabia to Play “Destabilizing Role” in the Middle East. Here’s an excerpt:

Saudi Arabia is at risk of becoming a major destabilizing influence in the Arab world, German intelligence has warned.

 

Internal power struggles and the desire to emerge as the leading Arab power threaten to make the key Western ally a source of instability, according to the BND intelligence service.

 

“The current cautious diplomatic stance of senior members of the Saudi royal family will be replaced by an impulsive intervention policy,” a BND memo widely distributed to the German press reads.

 

Saudi Arabia has previously been accused of supplying arms and funding to jihadist groups fighting in Syria, including Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isil).

At the core of this intelligence warning was none other than crown prince Mohamed bin Salman, or MBS.

I’ve been warning about the specific dangers presented by his brazen and sociopathic personality for years, and the recent purge finally threw it all into the spotlight for everyone to see.

MBS has already wreaked havoc on portions of the region with his reckless and failed polices with respect to both Yemen and Qatar. Today’s post will focus on the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Yemen, courtesy of the Saudi crown prince.

The New York Times reported last week:

Saudi Arabia’s three-day-old blockade of entry points to Yemen threatens to plunge that war-ravaged country into a famine that could starve millions of people, the top relief official of the United Nations said Wednesday.

 

The Yemen crisis has worsened since the Saudis imposed the blockade on Monday after a missile was fired deep into their territory by the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group, which has been warring with a Saudi-led military coalition for nearly three years.

 

Despite Saudi Arabia’s assurances that the measure was temporary while it reviews inspection procedures, virtually all humanitarian deliveries to Yemen have been halted, including at least three United Nations airplanes full of emergency supplies.

 

Mr. Lowcock said the Saudis must immediately allow the entry of food and medicine at all seaports, permit the immediate resumption of air services to the cities of Sana and Aden, and provide an “assurance of no further disruption to these services.”

 

Without such steps, he said, Yemen will suffer “the largest famine the world has seen for many decades, with millions of victims.”

 

The World Food Program, the anti-hunger agency of the United Nations, which has been feeding seven million people a month in Yemen, is now unable to do so, Mr. Lowcock said. “What we need is a winding down of the blockade to save the lives of those people.”

 

The country is struggling with an acute hunger crisis that has affected at least 17 million people, more than a third of them considered close to famine. Yemen also suffering a cholera scourge that has sickened nearly one million.

 

“Humanitarian supply lines to Yemen must remain open,” said Robert Mardini, the Red Cross’s regional director for the Near and Middle East. “Food, medicine and other essential supplies are critical for the survival of 27 million Yemenis already weakened by a conflict now in its third year.”

Since then, the Saudis have opened the port of Aden and a crossing at Wadea, but this is woefully inadequate.

As Al Jazeera notes:

On Friday, the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian aid, OCHA, said the coalition was still blocking desperately needed UN aid deliveries to Yemen, despite the reopening of Aden and Wadea.

 

“Humanitarian movements into Yemen remain blocked,” said OCHA spokesman Russell Geekie.

 

“The reopening of the port in Aden is not enough. We need to see the blockade of all the ports lifted, especially Hodeida, for both humanitarian and for commercial imports.”

 

UN aid chief Mark Lowcock told the Security Council this week that unless the blockade is lifted, Yemen will face “the largest famine the world has seen for many decades, with millions of victims”.

 

Stylianides echoed Lowcock’s concerns.

 

Yemen “is suffering the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with more than two-thirds of its population in need of humanitarian assistance”, he said in a statement.

 

“The EU shares the concerns expressed by… Lowcock and calls for full and unrestrained access to be restored immediately, to avoid Yemen suffering the largest famine in decades,” Stylianides said.

What we’re looking at here is potentially the worst famine in decades, and it’s important for decent U.S. citizens from across the political spectrum to admit our government’s hands are soaked in blood.

As The Intercept reported:

Saudi Arabia relies heavily on the U.S. military for intelligence sharing, refueling flights for coalition warplanes, and the transfer of American-made cluster bombs, rockets, and other munitions used against targets in Yemen.

 

Congress, however, has never authorized U.S. support for the war, which has caused 10,000 civilian deaths and has spiraled in recent months into one of the worst humanitarian crises of the century. For two years, Saudi Arabia and its allies have imposed a sea and air blockade around Yemen. Now, more than 7 million Yemenis face starvation and thousands, mostly children, are dying from cholera. Coalition warplanes have repeatedly struck crowded markets, hospitals, power plants, and other civilian targets.

 

Several members of Congress indicated an interest in the issue, noting that the Obama and Trump administrations’ reliance on the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force to justify U.S. involvement in the conflict is absurd. That authorization, after all, was designed to fight the terrorist groups responsible for the September 11 attacks, not to intervene in Yemen’s civil war.

 

For 16 years, the executive branch has pointed to the AUMF as legal justification for its involvement in conflicts across the Middle East and Africa, a strategy that is legally questionable. But the use of the AUMF in the Yemeni context is especially bizarre given that the AUMF’s target is Al Qaeda, and the group AQAP — Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula –is fighting alongside the U.S.-Saudi coalition against the Houthi rebels.

 

One bipartisan legislative attempt to force a vote on authorization for the war, H.Con.Res.81, faced a major setback last week after appearing to gain political momentum. On November 1, lawmakers stripped the bill of its privileged status, meaning the bill no longer maintains a fast-track to a floor vote. The legislation was designed to invoke the War Powers Act of 1973 to terminate U.S. involvement in the Yemen War.

 

Because the bill is no longer privileged, it will head back to the the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which is led by Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., a lawmaker who has expressed deep support for the Saudi-led military campaign. Few expect the legislation to move forward now that it is back in Royce’s domain. In April, the representative read a statement of support for the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen and entered into the congressional record an opinion column written by a Saudi general.

 

The move to crush H.Con.Res.81 was apparently negotiated by Democratic and Republican leadership. As part of a compromise, there will be some congressional debate over the war, though no on-the-record vote for authorization. As The Intercept previously reported, Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., the Democratic whip, was among the Democratic leaders opposed to invoking the War Powers Act to bring U.S. involvement in the war to an end.

 

Still, sponsors of the legislation are hoping to force a debate and an on-the-record vote over the war.

 

“Our national security interests in Yemen are unclear, yet we are giving money and military assistance to Saudi Arabia so they can continue to wage war in Yemen,” said Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., one of 43 co-sponsors. “This military action was never authorized by Congress and the American people deserve an open debate by their elected officials.”

 

Rep. Walter Jones, R-N.C., also a co-sponsor of the resolution, expressed frustration that House Speaker Paul Ryan has refused to allow a vote on the war and disappointment that the compromise solution negotiated by congressional leadership will not include a binding vote.

 

“This is part of my frustration about the fact Congress does not meet its constitutional responsibility when sending young men and women to die for this country, and we have a constitutional duty that we must debate war,” Jones said. “The vote to go to war in Yemen, we can’t even get a vote on this resolution. To me this is the way Congress does not work. We don’t work because we do not uphold the constitution.”

Meanwhile, many of the cretins in Congress can’t be bothered to answer questions about Yemen.

Unconstitutional war that could create the worst famine in decades? Meh, I’m too busy trying to figure out how to provide tax breaks to oligarchs.

After all, who cares, there’s just too much money to be made from war.

From The Washington Post:

BERLIN — As U.N. and international humanitarian agencies raise the alarm over the Saudi blockade of aid deliveries to Yemen, European and American officials have remained mostly silent. The few remarks coming out of Western capitals in recent weeks have hardly been messages of support for the Yemenis in the midst of a catastrophic humanitarian crisis — in fact, quite the opposite.

 

Two weeks ago, Britain’s then-Defense Minister Michael Fallon offered a blunt assessment of the government’s view on the controversy. “I have to repeat, sadly, to this committee that obviously other criticism of Saudi Arabia in this Parliament is not helpful,” Fallon told the parliamentary defense committee, to which he defended the planned sale of several fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. (Fallon has since resigned over sexual harassment allegations.)

 

In response to a missile attack from Yemeni territory targeting Saudi Arabia — which triggered the most recent escalation of the crisis — President Trump similarly ignored the plight of civilians in the war-torn country and instead went on to praise U.S. weapons sold to Saudi Arabia.

 

Both the United States and Britain have been making more money with arms sales to Saudi Arabia in recent years than ever before. Human rights critics fear that Saudi Arabia has not only bought their weapons but their acceptance for its policies.

 

 

Of course Saudi Arabia’s attractiveness to Western countries is not just about arms sales. On Thursday, Downing Street said it would provide Saudi energy giant Aramco with credit guarantees of $2 billion to facilitate trade between the two countries. Britain and the United States are both trying to persuade Aramco to hold its much anticipated IPO (valued at hundreds of billions of dollars) on the London and New York stock exchanges, with President Trump tweeting that such move would be “Important to the United States!”

 

In the United States, the Obama administration similarly suspended the sale of precision guided munitions to Riyadh last year. However, the Trump administration is believed to be working on the resumption of such sales. A separate major U.S. arms export deal to the kingdom was struck in May, and Trump has voiced increasingly strong support for the Saudi leadership ever since. Similarly, Germany is still exporting military equipment to the kingdom, although it now appears to be refraining from direct arms deliveries.

If that’s not MAGA, then I don’t know what is.

If E.U. politicians were determined to implement an arms embargo on Saudi Arabia, parliamentarians would have to persuade the governments of all member states to agree to such a ban. With more than a dozen nations profiting from arms and military equipment exports to the kingdom, the chances of such an embargo being implemented anytime soon are virtually nonexistent.

 

Attempts by nongovernmental organizations to force governments into committing to an embargo enforced by courts have so far also been blocked. Campaigners suffered a major defeat this summer, when London’s high court ruled that Britain was not complicit in alleged war crimes in Yemen by allowing the Saudi military to use its arms.

 

The court refused to say how it came to its conclusion, however, and barred the public from accessing the key evidence.

It always makes sense when you follow the money.

*  *  *

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Hezbollah Leader Says Saudi Arabia Has Declared War On Lebanon

If three days ago the middle east was on the "verge of a catastrophe", then moments ago it took one big step closer to the edge.

Recall that on Tuesday we reported that Saudi Arabia had again cast itself as the victim of external Shia plotting, after its internal weekend of chaos which included a missile attack from Yemen, the deaths of two princes and other high officials within a mere 24 hours, and an aggressive crackdown against dissent in the royal family which saw close to a dozen princes placed under house arrest. And while Saudi Arabia has long blamed Iran for sowing unrest in the region, Tuesday"s declaration by Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan that Lebanon has "declared war" against the kingdom was an historic first. But perhaps the biggest problem is that international media is currently uncritically spreading the statement, whereas what such a bizarre claim actually warrants is laughter. Thankfully, Nassim Nicholas Taleb sums it up nicely with a basic geography lesson: "Either the media is stupid, or Saudi rulers are stupid, or both. Lebanon did not formally declare war and there is no common border."

Well, fast forward three days when Lebanon has still not declared war on Saudi Arabia, however it has turned the table on Riyadh, when moments ago Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, said that "Saudi Arabia has declared war on Lebanon and Hezbollah." In a televized address to mark Hezbollah’s so-called Martyr Day, Nasrallah warned Israel against what he called "miscalculations" and said Saudis are angry because "their dreams did not come true in Syria, Lebanon."

Nasrallah: #SaudiArabia behind Israel"s war on #Lebanon in 2006 pic.twitter.com/WyAd35DtH2

— Press TV Breaking (@BREAKING_PTV) November 10, 2017

The Hezbollah leader also said he sees an Israeli war with Lebanon as unlikely, and warns Israel against any attempt to exploit the political chaos in Lebanon, claiming "today we are stronger." Nasrallah also said that Yemenis have capacity to produce missiles, denying Saudi claims that Hezbollah fired a missile at Riyadh.

Nasrallah: Israelis don’t want war with Hezbollah, know how high its cost is#Lebanon #Israel pic.twitter.com/PBFOMZ80Kf

— Press TV Breaking (@BREAKING_PTV) November 10, 2017

Claiming that the failed Saudi faceoff with Qatar, and its intervention in Bahrain made its government bankrupt, he also warned that Saudi Arabia - which claims to be helping Yemenis, but has only killed its people, spread disease, hunger - "will fail in Lebanon as it did in all other arenas in the region."

Nasrallah: Saudis are angry because their dreams did not come true in Syria, Lebanon pic.twitter.com/BPplZ6Dzw0

— Press TV Breaking (@BREAKING_PTV) November 10, 2017

The Hezbollah leader also said former Lebanon premier Saad Hariri, who unexpectedly resigned over the weekend, is being kept under house arrest in Saudi Arabia after resigning as Lebanese Prime Minister from its capital on Saturday, and must be allowed to return home.

And now that both sides have mutually accused each other of having declared war on each other, the question is which country will break the stalemate and move from words to actions.

On The Verge Of Catastrophe: Saudi Arabia Says Lebanon Declared War

As expected, Saudi Arabia has cast itself as the victim of external Shia plotting after its internal weekend of chaos which included a missile attack from Yemen, the deaths of two princes and other high officials within a mere 24 hours, and an aggressive crackdown against dissent in the royal family which saw close to a dozen princes placed under house arrest. And as Al Jazeera noted, in this Saudi version of "Game of Thrones", the 32-year-old Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) shows that he is willing to throw the entire region into jeopardy to wear the royal gown.

While Saudi Arabia has long blamed Iran for sowing unrest in the region, this evening"s declaration by Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan that Lebanon has "declared war" against the kingdom is truly an historic first. But perhaps the biggest problem is that international media is currently uncritically spreading the statement, whereas what such a bizarre claim actually warrants is laughter. Thankfully, Nassim Nicholas Taleb sums it up nicely with a basic geography lesson: "Either the media is stupid, or Saudi rulers are stupid, or both. Lebanon did not formally declare war and there is no common border."

Still image taken from a video distributed by Yemen’s pro-Houthi Al Masirah television station, which purports to show the ballistic missile previously launched at Saudi Arabia.

With that in mind, here is the statement currently making headlines as reported by Reuters:

Saudi Arabia said on Monday that Lebanon had declared war against it because of attacks against the Kingdom by the Lebanese Shi‘ite group Hezbollah.

 

Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan told Al-Arabiya TV that Saad al-Hariri, who announced his resignation as Lebanon’s prime minister on Saturday, had been told that acts of “aggression” by Hezbollah “were considered acts of a declaration of war against Saudi Arabia by Lebanon and by the Lebanese Party of the Devil”.

Though clearly absurd (that Lebanon has declared war on KSA), the statement is driven by legitimate and deep-rooted fear, for not only has Hezbollah transformed itself into a Middle East powerhouse whose influence has grown vastly in the midst of the Syrian war, but it has transitioned into a quasi-state which has gained the respect of Lebanese and Arabs across the region. As we"ve noted many times before, it is fear of Hezbollah and its increasingly broad acceptance and legitimacy within Lebanese state institutions that also drives heightened Israeli rhetoric and bellicosity of late, which has once again "surprisingly" found itself on the same side as Saudi Arabia.

No!
No! https://t.co/puCf1k4cbC

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) November 6, 2017

And at a moment that Israel has begun massive war games, and as MBS continues his purge toward total consolidation of power over the kingdom, both unlikely bedfellows continue their war of words against Hezbollah. It"s no secret that common cause in Syria of late has led the historic bitter enemies down a pragmatic path of unspoken cooperation as both seem to have placed the break up of the so-called "Shia crescent" as their primary policy goal in the region. But that"s perhaps why few pundits seemed overly shocked when Israeli media reported in early September that bin Salman may have made a secret visit to Israel, in spite of the fact that the kingdom does not recognize the Jewish state, and the two sides do not have diplomatic relations.

Will the current chaotic trajectory of things and unholy alliance between the Saudis and Israelis place Lebanon in the cross hairs of yet another Israeli-Hezbollah war? While we"ve recently addressed this question, this new and erratic Saudi declaration certainly puts the region a big step closer to such a war becoming a reality.

Though this question of the looming specter of an Israeli-Lebanese War (which would surely involve the Saudis aiding Israel politically inside Lebanon) has been addressed many times over of late, the real question, which isn"t often analyzed, is the true military capabilities of Hezbollah. What has both Israel and the Saudis worried is the fact that the Syrian war has possibly strengthened Hezbollah, not weakened it. 

In a follow up article we will disect Hezbollah"s military capabilities, and its role in Lebanese society.

Trump Prevented War Between Saudi Arabia And Qatar In Last Minute: Report

In what may be the most bizarre news of the day, Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were "close to taking military action in the early stages of their ongoing dispute with Qatar", until Donald Trump called the leaders of both countries and warned them to back off; in other words, Trump"s intervention prevented yet another gulf war, which if true will make the U.S. Millitary-Industrial complex very unhappy as Trump"s peace effort likely cost US offense defense companies tens of billions in lost profits.

As Bloomberg writes, confirming reports from early June that Saudi Arabia and Qatar were inches away from war leading to the mobilization of Qatar"s army, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., which both have a penchant for using their brand new weapons purchases from the US in the most practical of ways, were looking at ways to remove the Qatari regime, which they accused of sponsoring terrorism and cozying up to Iran. However, Trump told Saudi and U.A.E. leaders that any military action would trigger a crisis across the Middle East that would only benefit the Iranians.

It wasn’t clear when the conversations took place. The Saudis, backed by the U.A.E. and two other regional allies, broke off diplomatic ties with Qatar in early June, imposed an economic embargo and cut transport links. They’ve since issued multiple demands, including the closure of Qatar-based broadcaster Al Jazeera, that haven’t been met. Qatar denies all the accusations and accuses the Saudis of seeking to dominate smaller neighbors.

Of course, Saudi Arabia denied that military action was ever considered". The allegations are entirely incorrect, have already been denied, and amount to nothing more than typically misleading Qatari propaganda", said a Saudi official source familiar with the matter. At least they didn"t blame Russia.

Separately, Emirati officials have said in the past that the dispute can only be resolved by political, not military, means.

Still, despite avoiding war, the standoff has yet to be resolved, despite efforts by Kuwait to mediate. Trump made a push to settle it this month, after talks in Washington with Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah. He failed.

The U.S. president made a flurry of calls with Gulf leaders, saying the dispute was distracting U.S. allies from forging a united front against Iran.

Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, told the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday that the blockade amounted to a “betrayal” by the Saudis and their allies. He said his country is open to dialogue, but won’t be dictated to.

Outlining his mediation efforts at a press conference with Trump, Sheikh Sabah said: “Thank God, what’s important is that we stopped any military thing.” The Saudi-led coalition responded with a statement saying that a “military solution was never and will never be on the table.”

Meanwhile, speaking to reporters during his meeting with the Qatari Emir this afternoon near the UN, Trump denied everything and according to Bloomberg said he "didn"t warn the Saudis on military action against Qatar." In other words, everyone denied the story which is all we needed to hear. The question is if tensions between the gulf neighbors pick up again to the point of military intervention, will Trump succeed again.

Despite Sanctions, Qatar Is Still Outpacing Saudi Arabia In Economic Growth

Authored by Zainab Calcuttawala via OilPrice.com,

Despite the torrent of reports attesting to the non-impact of the Saudi Arabia-led diplomatic boycott of Doha, new estimates by Bloomberg’s economic survey predict that 2017 will be Qatar’s slowest year of GDP growth since 1995.

A previous study in June forecasted 3.1 percent and 3.2 percent growth for this year and next, respectively. New figures reduce those numbers to 2.5 percent for 2017 and 3.2 percent for 2018. The deficit figures jump to 5.1 percent for the current period, compared to previous estimates at 4.6 percent.

The current feud between Gulf monarchies began on June 5^th, when Saudi Arabia expressed its indignation at an insubordinate Qatar.

Energy interests, most notably Doha’s shared custody of the South Pars gas field – the largest of its kind – prevent Qatar from cutting relations with Shiite Iran, the Sunni Saudi government’s main rival in the Middle East.

“Even before the diplomatic crisis with regional powers, it looked like Qatar’s non-energy economy would slow,” William Jackson, of Capital Economics told World Oil.

“The early signs are that the sanctions dealt a damaging blow to Qatar’s economy in June. The impact appears to be temporary, but it will still result in weaker growth."

To be clear, Qatari exports of natural gas have not been affected by the diplomatic row.

The biggest casualty has been GCC-funded projects, namely food-processing and port facilities, that now face an uncertain future.

“The illegal actions of our neighbors have been the catalyst for us to accelerate our economic plans and renew our commitment to diversification and sustained growth,” said Sheikh Tamim bih Hamid at Thani.

“We fully expect to see a strong return of the Qatari economy this year and growth over the years to come.”

Qatar Petroleum also guarantees an increase in oil equivalent output topping one million barrels per day between the next five to seven years.

Doha’s unbeatable diplomatic flexibility plays a large role in carving out its niche in the region. The variety in its alliances will prove its immunity from the disciplinary tendencies of Saudi Arabia over the next 12 months.

"We expect the disruptive impact of the boycott to have evaporated by next year," said Farouk Soussa of Citigroup Middle East.

"Trade routes will have been fully reconfigured, confidence will have been restored, building will recommence -- all possibly against a backdrop of a continued boycott, but one that the economy has adapted to."

Though the extent of Qatar’s economic expansion sees new limits, it still outpaces its former GCC allies. It is ahead of Saudi Arabia by 0.5 percent and the United Arab Emirates by two percent, the latest surveys say. And that is a problem for the GCC, especially for Saudi Arabia.

As Hajj season approaches, Doha continues to deny any efforts to block any Muslims’ timely arrival in Mecca or Medina. Qatar’s Civil Aviation Authority issued a statement on Monday that denied its intent to block Saudi Arabian planes from landing or departing from its airports.

To be fair, the KSA has done the same. Recently, Riyadh reopened its lander border to allow Qataris to enter the Islamic holy lands, and offered other citizens a flight into the country.

Even plans for World Cup 2022 in Qatar’s desert heat seem to remain undisturbed.

According to Hassan Al-Thawadi, Secretary General of the Supreme Committee for Delivery and Legacy, the blockade has caused “an inconvenience” in delivering on its soccer field promises. Still, “progress is being made” and the predetermined schedule has yet to see adjustments.

Projections for economic growth are consistently in flux. Whether or not Qatar meets its 3.1 percent growth rate this year is a factor of will power, bureaucratic know-how and international diplomacy, especially when a country has lost its major regional allies. So far, Doha’s resilience sees no foreseeable cracks.

Revisiting Saudi Arabia

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

In May of last year I was attempting to figure out if there was an asymmetric play to be had in the land of sand and black gloop. There were a lot of moving pieces to deal with. I think it"s worth revisiting but first it"s worth reviewing what I thought just over a year ago. Much has subsequently happened so we can piece a little bit more together now.

A few years ago, when living in Phuket, Thailand, a group of Saudis stayed for a week’s holiday in a neighboring villa.

Outside of the religious and social confines of the land of black gold and endless sand, this group made a bunch of spoiled 5-year olds left to run amok in a candy shop without adult supervision look positively angelic.

They were very visible, with an entourage of young Thai “ladies” and a fleet of Land Cruisers to haul them about. On one occasion, after my son witnessed one of the guys buying a beer and throwing a US$100 bill at the waiter, telling him to keep the change, he asked me how come they had so much money to waste.

I explained that Saudi Arabia has two things in abundance: sand and oil. And though the world doesn’t need sand as much as it does oil, they have grown very wealthy selling the oil to the rest of the world.

Depending on whose numbers you take, somewhere between 75% and 85% of Saudi Arabia’s revenues come from oil exports, and fully 90% of revenues come from oil and gas. Clearly the Kingdom is dependent on oil revenues in the same way that an infant is dependent on its mother’s milk. And unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last few years, you’ll have noticed that the price of oil has collapsed.

Now, in a “normal” market the reduced revenues would manifest in a weaker local currency as demand for Riyals declines.

But governments and central bankers don’t believe in “normal” markets and so the Saudi riyal has been pegged at 3.75 to the US dollar since 1986.

It’s not hard to see a situation where Saudi Arabia may very well be forced to de-peg the currency to curb the fall in the country’s FX reserves should low oil prices persist.

Let’s look at some of the potential catalysts for this.

Could Yellen Kill The Peg?

While the Sheiks contemplate how to deal with their predicament from diamond encrusted cars and golden toilets, across the pond we find that monetary policy in the US has been tightening albeit modestly. What’s important to understand is that in order for Saudi Arabia to maintain its currency peg it needs to follow FED monetary policy.

By following Yellen the Saudis land up sacrificing growth, and by diverging they sacrifice FX reserves in order to maintain the peg. Clearly neither are attractive propositions. According to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), for every 100 basis point increase in the Saudi Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) this leads to a 90 basis point decline in GDP in the subsequent quarter, and a further 95 basis points in the following quarter.

Falling GDP in a country where over 60% of the population are under 30 brings about its own set of problems. Political instability in the Kingdom has been rising and the royal family is increasingly fighting for survival. After all, they had the experience of watching the Arab Spring unfold on their flat screens.

If, on the other hand, they opt not to follow the stumpy lady, the gap between interest rates in the US and Saudi Arabia will be quickly exploited by people like me as arbitrage opportunities open up.

So this is what we’re all looking at right now: SAMA will have to buy riyals in the open market by selling from its hoard of dollar reserves. Any rise in interest rates in the US will mean SAMA will have to further deplete reserves.

As I have mentioned before, all pegs eventually break. The question is one of timing.

How long do the Sheiks have under current oil prices?

The falling oil price since mid-2014, has significantly reduced Saudi Arabian revenues. So much so that the scorecard for 2015 showed a deficit of $98bn, and SAMA is estimating a further $87bn deficit this year.

The Saudi government have been funding this deficit by drawing down on forex reserves, spending $132bn in the year to January of this year. With current prices and current reserves they can easily last another 4 years.

Some things I’m thinking about:

• Iran will bring additional supply to a market in surplus. Saudi Arabia will be forced to keep the pedal to the metal on production, not wanting to lose any market share. And so I’m not convinced we’ll see oil rising in the next 12 to 24 months.


• Internal domestic political pressures can be "addressed" with creating an external pressure or conflict. It wouldn"t be the first time.


• We’re in a US dollar bull market as I’ve stated here,here, and here and many other times. Dollar strength will put pressure on the price of oil and thus revenues to the Kingdom.

This could certainly get interesting and traders have begun speculating on a de-pegging from the dollar.

Should low oil prices persist for the next 3 to 4 years, Saudi Arabia will be forced to decide whether it prefers to either cut the production or loosen the currency peg.

I could be wrong but I feel like it’s too early to play this trade and the costs of entry are not astoundingly cheap. Saudi Arabia has almost no debt and can easily access the credit markets. With debt to GDP of just 2% they have a lot of room to move. Coupled with the upcoming partial listing of Aramco their ability to tap international markets for capital is certainly a factor I’m not sure all currency speculators are considering.

What is worth watching are neighbour states. While Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE all have dollar pegs, they too have vast central bank reserves and sovereign wealth funds. But what looks pretty precarious to me are Oman and Bahrain who could run out of reserves in less than three years. Both these countries have resorted to issuing debt to extend the longevity of their reserves but issuing dollar denominated debt which is essentially asset underwritten by the price of oil in an environment of persistently low oil prices certainly looks like a precarious bet to be making.

Investors looking for asymmetry in markets will do well paying attention to the currency markets, and existing dollar pegged currencies in particular. As I mentioned before… all pegs break, and the returns that can be made in such situations are of the life changing variety.

– Chris

“If Saudi Arabia was without the cloak of American protection, I don’t think it would be around.” – Donald Trump

Ok, so that was over 12 months ago. Fast forward to today and we have some of the answers... and we"re a little further down the road.

Oil

Still looks like isht. The supply and demand setup hasn"t gotten any better, and this is not what the house of Saud wants. Nothing shocking to what we expected anyway.

Rates

The tubby lady at the FED has gone ahead with a divergent policy (raising rates). As you can see, I discussed in that article what effect the raising of rates could (or would have) on the finances in Saudi Arabia. Again, nothing we never expected.

Conflict

I penned an article on Qatar here. I do think the spat with Qatar has less to do with them than it has to do with Iran and with the Saudi"s domestic problems - both financial and political. In the article above, I mentioned some stupid conflict but wouldn"t have put it up there as a probability over 50%. And yet now it"s happening in real time. Does it subside, does it blow up, or something else?

The question I think we need to ask ourselves today is this: now that the conditions have been met that do nothing to assist the Saudis with their finances (and at the same time they"ve chosen a path of "external" enemy) where does that leave us with original idea of looking for an asymmetric payoff on the riyal having to de-peg their currency?

I"m watching the dollar index very, very closely. If we break higher, then the Saudis will have a very, very serious problem on their hands as their balance sheet blows out. This could get interesting... and profitable.

- Chris

"Rockefeller once explained the secret of success. Get up early, work late - and strike oil." — Joey Adams

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Qatar Blockade To Continue After Arab States Slam "Negative" Response To Ultimatum

Foreign ministers from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain released statements following a meeting in Cairo on Wednesday, after the latest deadline they had set to Qatar expired on Tuesday night.

The four Arab nations, locked in a diplomatic crisis with Qatar, dismissed Doha’s response to their demands as “not serious” and pledged to continue to keep the Gulf state under political and economic sanctions until it changes its policies. They also “expressed regret with regards to the negative response from Qatar, which showed complacency and non-seriousness to deal with the root of the problem and reconsider their policies and practices.”

Arab Foreign Ministers meet to discuss the diplomatic situation with Qatar, in Cairo, Egypt.

Speaking to reporters, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri said that Qatar’s response to the four Arab states’ list of demands, which was passed on via intermediary Kuwait on Monday, was “generally negative” and failed to “lay the foundation for Qatar"s reversal of the policies it pursues.”

He added that Qatar’s reply "lacked content", and that it was no "longer possible to tolerate Qatari acts." Shukri also accused Qatar of failing “to realize the gravity of the situation,” according to AP.

Separately, the Saudi Foreign Minister Adel bin Ahmed Al Jubeir says the alliance will weigh more measures against Qatar, and reserves the right to take action when appropriate. He also made it clear that “this is not a response to the Kuwait letter” so something more formal may follow as “consultations are ongoing."  He also said that the Boycott will continue until Qatar changes policy, adding that it was no surprise that Iran is trying to get closer to Qatar, while expressing hopes that Turkey will remain neutral.

In other words, it appears that while nothing firm was decided, “the boycott will continue until Qatar changes policy” according to the Saudi.

The Saudi-led alliances will meet again in Manama, Bahrain to discuss next steps.

Earlier in the day, Qatar"s Foreign Minister accused four Arab neighbors of "clear aggression" against his country. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said charges cited by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt in cutting diplomatic and transport links a month ago "were clearly designed to create anti-Qatar sentiment in the west".

"Qatar continues to call for dialogue despite the violation of international laws and regulations, despite the separation of 12,000 families, despite the siege that is a clear aggression and an insult to all international treaties, bodies and jurisdictions," he told a meeting at London"s Chatham House think-tank.

Qatar “wasn’t built on oppression, fear, censorship, has an independent view on global and regional events,” the official added. Also, the country successfully “mediated in 10 international portfolios in the course of the last 8 years,” without “interfering in the internal affairs of others.”

Qatar remains “open for dialogue, not an ultimatum,” as the country’s authorities believe that “citizens everywhere should have the right to a government that is responsive to their needs,” and their country, despite not being a democracy, caters to these needs. “That’s why Qatar wasn’t alarmed and threatened by the Arab Spring movement [back in 2011],” the Qatari Foreign Minister said.

The Only Way Out Of The Qatar Crisis

Authored by Ahmed Chari via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Qatar has been known for years as a small peninsula nation that punches far above its weight. Its immense oil wealth and enormous influence, through its English- and Arabic-language Al Jazeera channels, have given it diplomatic clout across the Arab world. Its soft power has been felt in negotiations in Darfur, Tripoli, Sanaa and elsewhere. Everywhere it has been either admired or envied.

Now Qatar is on its back feet, fighting off criticism from all sides. Qatar’s candidate to run UNESCO is now almost certain to lose; a few months earlier, he was the frontrunner. Activists are pressing FIFA to bar Qatar from hosting the World Cup. Pressure is mounting to close the U.S. air base in Qatar; U.S. Air Force general Charles Wald, who opened the base in 2001, is now, in retirement, publicly calling for its closure. A coalition of thirty-four thousand predominantly African American churches protested Qatar in Washington, DC, on June 28, citing Qatar’s persecution of Christians, Jews and other religious minorities. (Qatar bans crosses on the outside of churches and bars public prayer by Christians, even though there may be more Christians in the country than the three hundred thousand native Qataris.) The protest, outside Qatar’s embassy at Twenty-Fifth and M Streets, is the first-ever public demonstration against Qatar in Washington. It won’t be the last.

Even more dramatically, Qatar’s neighbors and allies have turned against it. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have cut diplomatic ties with Qatar and closed their air and sea ports to Qatar’s planes and ships. The Arab-language media is full of venom directed at Qatar. Now it is either pitied or feared.

What happened? Qatar was found to be funding the enemies of America and its Arab allies. Washington policymakers are concerned that Qatar has funded, according to the U.S. State department, Al Qaeda affiliates in Syria as well as elements of ISIS—the very groups America is bombing in its campaign to liberate northern Iraq. It also supports Hamas, which both the United States and EU have designated as a terrorist organization. Bahrain believes that Qatar is supporting armed opposition groups against its royal family. The Saudis fault Qatar’s financial support to the Yemen-based Houthi rebels (opposed to the Saudi regime) as well as Qatar’s backing for violent opposition groups in the Saudi province of Al Qatif, which is mostly Shia.

Meanwhile, Qatar has offered a sanctuary to the Muslim Brotherhood and known terrorists. The oil sheikhdom also shelters the Muslim Brotherhood’s spiritual guide, Yusuf al-Qaradawi; Khaled Meshal, who was until recently the leader of Hamas; and Abbassi Madani, an Algerian Islamist leader—as well as many Taliban leaders. Nor was Qatar simply giving these extremists a roof and a cot. It gave them a platform, through Al Jazeera, to raise funds, woo followers and boost their prestige.

All of this duplicity and support might have been tolerable, as it too often was before the September 11 attacks, were it not for the Arab world’s confrontation with Iran. The Islamic Republic is already engaged in both a direct and a proxy war against the Sunni states. Iran’s state-run broadcasts refer to Bahrain as Iran’s “eighteenth province,” even though Persians have not ruled there for some three centuries, and call on believers to end Saudi control over the Muslim holy places in Mecca and Medina. The UAE has a bitter territorial dispute with Iran. And let’s not forget that Iran is developing atomic weapons and the missiles to carry them; it may be planning to settle its religious and regional arguments with a Hiroshima-style blast.

In contrast with its neighbors’ conflicts with Iran, Qatar is in business with the Islamic Republic. It shares with Iran the Pars Sud gas field, one of the world’s largest.

While Iran was under embargo, Qatar continued to sell Iranian natural gas to Europe. The shared gas field gave Qatar the perfect cover to help its partner in crime, Iran. Yet shipping by sea is slow, costly and risky. Qatar proposed a pipeline across Syria to move Iran’s energy products (as well as its own) to the power-starved European market. A pipeline would have cut costs while strengthening Qatar’s hand. The Syrian dictator soon put an end to this pipe dream.

In short, Qatar’s support for Iran was the last straw for its neighbors. The U.S. State Department is trying to be neutral, and is asking for evidence of Qatar’s transgressions. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has been far clearer: he has demanded that Qatar stop funding America’s enemies.

Clearly, Qatar must stop opening the money spigot for groups designated as terrorists by its allies, and it should turn over the terror leaders it is hosting to face justice in their native lands.

The U.S. State Department should also invite Morocco to help. Iran, and indirectly Qatar, is backing armed uprisings by minority Shia groups across the Sunni-majority Arab world. Morocco’s king, Mohammed VI, is also his kingdom’s supreme religious ruler. His words and moderate religious teachings have calmed restive Shia populations and inspired them to oppose violence. Under the king’s leadership, Morocco is now enjoying a new influence in Africa. Mohammed VI, as a spokesman for political and religious moderation, is an important voice to combat Shia uprisings and Sunni reprisals.

Qatar must stop fanning the flames of Islamic division, and Morocco and the Gulf Arabs should be given a real chance to head off a religious civil war between Sunnis and Shia, which could cost millions of lives in a war that could drag on for decades.

We have come to a time when confrontation with Qatar will produce peace, and compromising will lead to war. Trump’s instincts are right. If Qatar doesn’t change, the world around it will.

Saudi Hypocrisy: The Great Gas War Is Looming

Authored by Golem XIV,

Astonishing hypocrisy! Saudi and its affiliates demand end to support of terrorism while they themselves are some of its largest funders.

Their list of demands, as reported in the Guardian, should be translated as:

1) Curb ties with Iran = No talking to Shia Muslims.

2) Sever all ties to terror organisations = Declare Muslim Brotherhood terrorists who we find threatening internally and only Saudi should decide which terror organisations get funded. Not you

3) Shut down al-Jazeera = We don’t allow press freedom you can’t have it either. Especially one that criticises us. Shut down what is, for all its significant faults, one of the best media outlets in the world.

4) Shut down all other media Qatar funds = Only Saudi propaganda allowed. al-Jazeera was far too willing to report government repression during the Arab Spring. So close down all non Saudi controlled media.

5) Close down Turkish military bases in Qatar = Qatar isn’t allowed its own diplomatic sovereignty.

6) Stop funding anyone Saudi calls a terrorist = Stop funding anyone who opposes Saudi or other undemocratic regimes in the ME. No democratic dissent allowed.

7) Handover terrorist figure = Hand over to us all dissidents we want to imprison or behead.

8) Stop interfering in other countries affairs = Hand over people we don’t like that have taken refuge in Qatar. We do the interfering (see this list of demands) not you.

9 -12) Make yourself a vassal state of Saudi, pay us money, let us control your treasury and foreign policy and agree to all this NOW. Or else, Saudi, its minions, the US and Israel will try to paint you as part of a new axis of evil.

Oh and by the way oil rules! Not the gas you and Iran want to sell!

The Great Gas War is gathering towards a major escalation.

The Northern Front in Ukraine has gone quiet. Or at least unreported. But its Southern Front from Syria to Yemen, Turkey to Iran is hotting up.

Five Democrat Votes Allow Trump's Saudi Weapons Deal To Clear Senate

A bipartisan bid to block President Trump"s recently negotiated $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia failed in the Senate. The effort to stop the weapons sales, authored by Senators Rand Paul and Chris Murphy, fell short on a 47-53 vote, with four Republicans joining most Democrats in voting against it and five Democrats voting to preserve deals that will arm the Saudi Kingdom with some of the most sophisticated equipment available.

The five democrats who made the passage of the weapons deal possible were Sens. Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Joe Manchin, Joe Donnelly and Mark Warner.

Despite the failure, Politico notes that Paul and Murphy fared better on Tuesday than they did last year in a similar effort to block a Saudi arms sale under former President Barack Obama, thanks entirely to new Democratic supporters: it"s curious how ideology changes ones outlook on lethal weaponry.

"Regardless of whether the number is 48 or 51 or 45" in favor of blocking the deals, Murphy told reporters before the vote, "this is an important message to the Saudis that we are all watching. And if they continue to target civilians and they continue to stop humanitarian aid from getting into Yemen, this vote will continue to go in the wrong direction for them."

Paul said after the vote that he and Murphy would discuss possible future attempts to block Trump"s arms deals to Riyadh, warning that senators are growing more concerned about the civilian toll in a Yemen conflict that is pitting Saudi-backed government forces against rebel factions reportedly supported by Iran.

Before that happens, Paul told reporters, "there needs to be a period of time to see if there"s a change in Saudi warfare tactics."

Like, for example, if Saudi Arabia plans on launching an assault on Qatar any time soon perhaps.

While Paul and Muprhy lost, the winners were the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia, and some Republicans such as Mitch McConnell, who claims this deal "will help Saudi Arabia fight ISIS and serve as a check on Iran." Bob Corker was also a big supporter of the deal: "There is no classified intelligence that shows they have ever intentionally bombed civilians — as a matter of fact, intelligence down there shows that they didn"t," Bob Corker told reporters before the vote, describing the attempted blockade of the sales as "cutting your nose off to spite your face."

While previously there was little information on the specifics of the multi-billion dollar deal, over the weekend Defense News reported that it "includes seven THAAD missile defense batteries, over 100,000 air-to-ground munitions and billions of dollars" worth of new aircraft."

9 Of The World's 10 Least-Peaceful Nations Were All Targeted By US Intervention

Authored by Whitney Webb via TheAntiMedia.org,

The annual Global Peace Index, recently released for June 2017, has found that while the world is more peaceful now than last year, violence has increased significantly overall in the past decade.

Although the situation has improved in many countries, the ten lowest-ranking nations – known as the world’s “least peaceful” countries – have shown little change in recent years.

You will find more statistics at Statista

However, nine of those ten countries share one commonality in the violence that they’ve experienced: U.S.-led destabilization efforts and regime change operations...

Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan: Targets for regime change and manufactured sectarianism

Syria, which ranked last in the June 2017 index, has been in the throes of a U.S.-led regime change effort for the better part of six years – a conflict that has ravaged one of the most prosperous nations in the Middle East and turned it into the latest battleground for a proxy war between the U.S. and Russia.

The U.S. has been planning the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at least as far back as 2006. Since the 2011 “uprising,” the U.S. has continuously funded and armed opposition groups in Syria along with several extremist groups, many of which have since joined terrorist organizations like Daesh (ISIS) and the al-Nusra Front.

The nations that rank just above Syria – Iraq and Afghanistan – were both targets of major U.S. invasions in the early 2000s and the U.S.’ continued presence in both of these countries has greatly contributed to the still-deteriorating situations in both nations.

With the U.S. troop presence growing in Iraq and set to surge dramatically in Afghanistan with the deployment of over 50,000 troops, more conflict is inevitable.

South Sudan: “Nation-building” gone awry

South Sudan, which ranked fourth, has also been victimized by U.S. intervention and “nation-building.”

The U.S. pushed South Sudan to secede from Sudan in 201,1 as South Sudan held 75 percent of Sudan’s oil reserves — the largest oil reserves in all of Africa. Analysts argued that the U.S. sought to create an independent South Sudan in order to dislodge Chinese claims to Sudanese oil, as the Chinese had previously signed oil contracts with the (now Northern) Sudanese government. The U.S.’ significant aid contributions to South Sudan, totalling $1.6 billion between 2013 and 2016, suggest that Washington has sought to influence the government there for that very purpose.

Just two years later, however, South Sudan dissolved into a deadly civil war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced more than 1.5 million. Some analysts have suggested that the civil war broke out between South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his former deputy Riek Machar only when Mayardit started to cozy up to China.

The chaos from U.S. meddling in South Sudan has reached beyond its borders and brought trouble to Sudan, with that nation ranking as the eighth least peaceful nation.

Yemen: U.S.-backed Saudi aggressors responsible for famine, war crimes

Yemen, which ranked fifth, has also been involved in a U.S.-linked conflict, though the United States’ role has been less direct. While the U.S. is not leading the fight in Yemen, it has ardently backed the war’s aggressor – Saudi Arabia – from the beginning and has supplied the Saudis with billions of dollars in weapons, as well as occasionally bombed locations in Yemen to aid their Gulf allies.

In addition, the U.S. has turned a blind eye to the Saudis’ numerous war crimes in Yemen, despite the enormity of the tragedy unfolding there, including blocking aid shipments and consequently triggering widespread famine. The U.S. has been eager to see Saudi influence continue in Yemen – as it was prior to the conflict – due to Yemen’s location, which grants it control over the strategic strait of Bab al-Mandab, a chokepoint for the Saudi oil trade.

Yemen is followed by Somalia in the rankings.

Somalia: State of anarchy persists thanks to U.S. involvement

U.S. involvement in Somalia has a long history and reached a climax in the early 1990s, when the U.S.-supported military dictatorship of Siad Barre was overthrown, plunging the nation into civil war.

Thanks to Somalia’s strategic location for global oil markets at the mouth of the Red Sea, the U.S. became involved and, according to a staffer for the chief of the UN Somalia operation, “dragged the UN into Somalia kicking and screaming.” Somalia remained in a state of anarchy for 16 years until a coalition of Islamic courts took over the capital in 2006. However, this government was soon overthrown by Ethiopia with U.S. support.

Current U.S. anti-terrorism policy in Somalia, which includes the use of airstrikes, has been blamed for worsening the nation’s conflict and its burgeoning humanitarian crisis, having driven the nation into famine.

Libya: Plunged into chaos after challenging U.S. petrodollar

Another recent victim of U.S. regime change efforts, Libya now ranks as the seventh least peaceful nation in the world. Once one of the most prosperous nations in Africa, former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi made the “mistake” of challenging the U.S. petrodollar system by creating a gold-backed pan-African currency known as the dinar. Following his ouster, Libya was essentially transformed into a failed state where there is still no clear government, terrorism runs rampant and slaves are now openly traded in public.

Ukraine: Targeted by U.S.-led coup over gas industry

Ukraine, which was the target of a U.S.-led coup in 2014 to weaken the influence of Russia’s lucrative gas industry on European gas markets, now ranks tenth among the least peaceful nations in the world. The only nation ranking near the bottom that has not experienced clear U.S. involvement is the Central African Republic, which ranks ninth.

The United States’ not-so-peaceful ranking

The United States itself also plummeted dramatically in this year’s Global Peace Index, now ranking 114 out of the 163 nations surveyed. This decrease was the greatest decline measured in any country this year.

Statisticians have blamed divisiveness that has made itself plain following the 2016 presidential election, as well as a continued rise in homicide rates.

The United States’ involvement in military conflicts abroad is not factored into its ranking, meaning that this placement is conservative at best. As indicated by the ten lowest-ranking nations, if this factor were taken into consideration, the U.S. could likely find itself at the bottom of the list for its role in spurring disastrous and deadly conflicts around the world under the guise of foreign policy.