The Man Behind The Oil Price Rally

Authored by Dan Dicker via OilPrice.com,

The OPEC meeting is over and the cartel has extended production cuts throughout 2018. The decision is obviously crucial to supporting oil prices, but perhaps an even bigger story is the relentless strategy from the young Saudi Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, being played out both inside OPEC and in his own country. And oil is the key to it all.

Last Sunday premiered the newly formed Islamic anti-terrorism coalition, putting together leaders from Sunni Arab nations to denounce and combat fundamentalist terrorism throughout the Middle East and the world. It was another bold initiative towards the West of the young and energetic Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, coming on the heels of other bold moves that have looked to consolidate political and religious power in the Kingdom.

Together, all of these initiatives couldn’t be more transparent. They represent a movement of the most economically powerful nation in OPEC towards social, cultural and economic change, the realization of the Saudi “Vision 2030”. It is a top-down Arab Spring movement that likely has a better chance of success than the populist movements that resulted in more chaos than change in 2010.

However, the ultimate success for Vision 2030 will rely upon achieving the main economic goal of this revolution – the divestiture of Saudi Arabia from the singularity of oil revenues. Because we know that ultimately money – and lots of it – will be needed to drive the engines for change, we get a far better picture of just how important these latest production extensions agreed to in Vienna were for the young Prince.

And here we’re brought back to the upcoming IPO of Saudi Aramco, still on tap for 2018.

Even the planned 5 percent offering of the Saudi state oil assets could yield an instantaneous $100 billion dollars, if the $2 trillion-dollar valuation of Saudi Aramco is accurate. That’s a lot of capital to start the process of rebuilding a Saudi economy from one that is now virtually completely reliant upon the State. 75 percent of the Saudi public is under 35 years old, and they are starving for a new economic infrastructure that will bring job opportunities, cultural diversity, music, education – global access of all kinds – the kind of freedoms that the 2010 Arab Spring uprisings were supposed to deliver. Only this time, the push for change is coming from the top down, not as a populist movement from the people upwards.

It’s hard to overstate the importance of this story for us as energy investors going forward, as it will dominate Middle East geopolitics for decades.

And the bottom line is this – it all comes down to oil.

At a $40-barrel price, the IPO will be a complete bust, and without that economic power from oil diversification, the push forward on all the other social and cultural changes the youth are yearning for in Saudi Arabia, (and in the rest of the Arab world) is guaranteed to fail.

At $75, or better still $100 a barrel – the Prince will wield the economic power to enter the Western capital markets as a player who has executed a brilliant and revolutionary plan on his way to the Saudi throne, where he will sit for decades. He will be able to avoid the likely rebound of angry cousins and conservative clerics an economic failure of a weak IPO will surely bring.

It’s enough to say that the balance of Middle East politics, from Iraq and Iran to Israel, all will be determined by the outcome of the Crown Prince’s grand strategy.

And all of it relies on a very, very high price for oil. That should inform us to a great degree on how we should be investing right now.

Saudi Purge Claims Its Latest Corporate Victim As Kingdom Holdings Sees $1.3 Billion Bank Deal Collapse

For the past couple of weeks we"ve written frequently about the sudden political turmoil in Saudi Arabia that resulted in two Saudi princes being killed in a span of just 24 hours and dozens others being detained on charges of corruption while having their bank accounts frozen.  Here are couple of our most recent background posts on the topic:

• The Saudi Purge: The Middle-East Is On The Verge Of A New War


• If The Saudi Arabia Situation Doesn"t Worry You, You"re Not Paying Attention

Now, per an exclusive report from Reuters, it appears as though the latest casualty of the Saudi shakeup is a financing deal sought by the $8 billion dollar Kingdom Holdings which is owned and run by Prince Alwaleed bin Talal...at least until he was recently arrested that is.

Kingdom Holding’s plan to borrow money to fund new investments has stalled because owner Prince Alwaleed bin Talal has been detained in Saudi Arabia’s anti-corruption crackdown, according to four banking sources familiar with the matter.

 

Kingdom 4280.SE had approached banks to obtain the loan, but the financing plan has been held up because the lenders are worried about potential repercussions if they lend to the prince’s company, the sources said.

 

One of the sources, who was approached for the loan, said it would have been worth roughly 5 billion riyals ($1.3 billion).

For those who aren"t familiar with the company, Kingdom Holdings is a leading Saudi investment firm with stakes in prime real estate including New York’s Plaza Hotel and London’s Savoy Hotel.

The busted bank deal apparently surfaced after Kingdom Holdings attempted to pledge an equity position it recently acquired in Banque Saudi Fransi as collateral for a new $1.3 billion loan but several banks balked until the charges levied against Prince Alwaleed bin Talal were resolved.

Kingdom completed the acquisition of a 16.2 percent stake in local lender Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) 1050.SE in September, buying about half of France’s Credit Agricole stake in BSF for 5.76 billion riyals.

 

The company approached banks to obtain a loan that would have been secured by its BSF stake, as the company wanted to leverage the newly acquired shares in order to make new investments, according to the sources.

 

One of the four sources, a senior banker at a Saudi financial institution, said the loan deal would not go ahead until the situation facing the prince was resolved.

Of course, Kingdom Holdings is likely not the only Saudi company finding it difficult to tap debt markets these days as Moody"s recently warned that a prolonged freeze of bank accounts could "damage corporate credit quality" all across the country.

Eight Saudi and international bankers, including the four sources, said in addition to the Kingdom loan, a range of other transactions involving clients who are directly or indirectly involved in the detentions had also been put on hold.

 

Banks have not reached the point of recalling existing loans, but they have increased the level of scrutiny for some new financing, the bankers said.

 

In a report last week, debt rating agency Moody’s said a prolonged freeze of bank accounts in Saudi Arabia could damage corporate credit quality in the kingdom because large depositors were often large borrowers and business owners.

 

“Saudi Arabia’s corporate sector remains dominated by unlisted family-owned businesses with uneven governance and disclosures and frequent intermingling of individual and corporate activities, which ultimately could expose corporates to these individuals’ frozen accounts,” Moody’s said.

Meanwhile, despite assurances from the Riyadh government that the economy would not suffer from the country"s political turmoil "because investigators are targeting only individuals, not their companies," Kingdom Holdings shareholders don"t seem to be convinced...

Brandon Smith Warns: The Saudi Coup Signals War And The New World Order Reset

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

For years now, I have been warning about the relationship of interdependency between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and how this relationship, if ended, would mean disaster for the petrodollar system and by extension the dollar"s world reserve status.

In my recent articles "Lies And Distractions Surrounding The Diminishing Petrodollar" and "The Economic End Game Continues," I point out that the death of the dollar as the premier petrocurrency is actually a primary goal for establishment globalists.

Why?

Because in an effort to achieve what they sometimes call the "global economic reset," or the "new world order," a more publicly accepted centralized global economy and monetary framework is paramount. And, this means the eventual implementation of a single world currency and a single global economic and political authority above and beyond the dollar system.

But, it is not enough to simply initiate such socially and fiscally painful changes in a vacuum. The banking powers are not interested in taking any blame for the suffering that would be dealt to the masses during the inevitable upheaval (or blame for the suffering that has already been caused). Therefore, a believable narrative must be crafted. A narrative in which political intrigue and geopolitical crisis make the "new world order" a NECESSITY; one that the general public would accept or even demand as a solution to existing instability and disaster.

That is to say, the globalists must fashion a propaganda story to be used in the future, in which "selfish" nation-states abused their sovereignty and created conditions for calamity, and the only solution was to end that sovereignty and place all power into the hands of a select few "wise and benevolent men" for the greater good of the world.

I believe the next phase of the global economic reset will begin in part with the breaking of petrodollar dominance. An important element of my analysis on the strategic shift away from the petrodollar has been the symbiosis between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has been the single most important key to the dollar remaining as the petrocurrency from the very beginning.

The very first oil exploration and extraction deal in Saudi Arabia was sought by the vast international oil cartels of Royal Dutch Shell, Near East Development Company, Anglo-Persian, etc., but eventually fell into the hands of none other than the Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company. The dark history of Standard Oil aside, this meant that Saudi business would be handled primarily by American interests. And the Western thirst for oil, especially after World War I, would etch our relationship with the reigning monarchy in stone.

A founding member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia was one of the few primary oil-producing nations that maintained an oil pipeline that expedited processing and bypassed the Suez Canal. (The pipeline was shut down, however, in 1983). This allowed Standard Oil and the United States to tiptoe around the internal instability of Egypt, which had experienced ongoing conflict which finally culminated in the civil war of 1952.

Considered puppets of the British Empire at the time, the ruling elites of Egypt were toppled by the Muslim Brotherhood, leading to the eventual demise of the British pound sterling as the top petro-currency and the world reserve. The British economy faltered and has never since returned to its former glory.

Perhaps we are seeing some parallels here?

Civil war may not be in the cards for Saudi Arabia; so far a quiet coup has been rather effective in completely changing the power base of the nation over the past few years. The primary beneficiary of that change in power has been crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who only answers to King Salman, an 81-year-old ruler barely involved in leadership.

To understand how drastic this coup has been, consider this - for decades Saudi Kings maintained political balance by doling out vital power positions to separate, carefully chosen successors. Positions such as Defense Minister, the Interior Ministry and the head of the National Guard. Today, Mohammed Bin Salman controls all three positions. Foreign policy, defense matters, oil and economic decisions and social changes are now all in the hands of one man.

But the real question is, who is behind that man?

Well, the recent political purge of various "neo-conservative" tied Saudis might lead some to believe that Prince Mohammed is seeking an end to globalist control of Saudi oil and politics.

These people would be wrong for a number of reasons.

Prince Mohammed"s revolutionary "Vision for 2030" developed as he entered power was touted as a means to end Saudi reliance on oil revenues to support economic stability. However, I believe this plan is NOT about ending reliance on oil, but ending reliance on the U.S. dollar. In fact, the plan indicates a move away from the dollar as the world"s petrocurrency and a de-pegging of the Riyal from the dollar.

Prince Mohammed has also established much deeper ties to Russia and China, creating bilateral agreements which may end up removing the dollar as the mechanism for oil trade between the nations.

You would think that this kind of strategy would be highly damaging to the West and to American interests in particular and that the corporate establishment would be doing everything in their power to stop it. However, this is not at all the case. In reality, the globalist establishment is fully behind Mohammed Bin Sulman"s "Vision for 2030."

Corporate behemoths such as the Carlyle Group (Bush family, etc), Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and Blackrock have ALL been backing the Vision for 2030 and Prince Mohammed through his Public Investment Fund (PIF), of which he is the chairman.

Trillions in capital are flowing through PIF, most of it from the coffers of globalist establishment companies. Once again I point out that the so-called "East versus West division" and the Eastern "opposition" to the globalists is complete nonsense; banking elites and globalists are the true influence behind the move away from the dollar, as the Saudi example and the Vision for 2030 shows. The end of the dollar as world reserve works in their favor — it is planned.

This does not end with the death of the dollar"s petro-status, though. These kinds of upsets in the power dynamic invariably lead to war. War acts as a kind of cleansing of the historical record; it tends to distract the public, for generations, from those that truly benefit from geopolitical and economic strife.

Prince Mohammed has already triggered conflicts with Yemen and Qatar, but this seems to have only been a precursor to greater kinetic displays of force. The next target appears to be Lebanon, and eventually Iran and Syria.

The first signal came with the resignation of Lebanon"s Prime Minister Saad Hariri on November 4, a resignation Hezbollah claims was forced by the Saudi government. Interestingly, Saad Hariri recorded the televised announcement in Saudi Arabia.

This shocking disruption to Lebanon"s political apparatus has been followed by an escalation in saber rattling by Saudi Arabia against Hezbollah (which is considered by many to be merely a puppet organization of the Iranian government). If official polls are to be believed, the Lebanese population is in extreme disagreement over Iran and Hezbollah, which could add to internal divisions and civil war if tensions continue to grow. Add to this the suspected (but officially denied) "secret visit" by Prince Mohammed to Israel in September, and the newfound "friendship" between the two nations in the months since, and we have quite a bit of momentum for a war in Lebanon.

The question is, will a war between Saudi Arabia and perhaps Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon remain a proxy war, or will it gestate into a wider conflict drawing in Iran, Syria and perhaps even the U.S.?

First, keep in mind that Prince Mohammed has already frozen and/or confiscated approximately $800 billion in assets from his imprisoned political enemies. More than enough to fund a war campaign for several years, maybe even an expanded war against Iran.

Trump"s rhetoric against Iran and his re-institution of sanctions seems to coincide nicely with the increasing tension between the Saudis and Hezbollah. Israel attempted an invasion of Lebanon in 2006 and was soundly and embarrassingly defeated. But, the Israeli government does still showcase a willingness to enter into a ground war in the region, and with the combined forces of the Saudis and the Israelis, we might see a different outcome. Iran would be forced to intervene.

Syria under the Assad regime would also most likely be drawn in through its mutual defense pact with Iran.

I believe that major powers like the U.S. and Russia will probably not become involved in a wider sense, but continue to insert covert forces into the region and support opposing nations through funding and armaments. As with North Korea, I would not expect "world war" on the scale of a nuclear conflagration to develop in the Middle East.

What I do expect is something far more devastating - namely an accelerated disintegration of our already collapsing economic structure as war plays out abroad and the loss of the dollar"s world reserve and petro-status hits us hard at home. So far, in my view it appears that the insanity in Saudi Arabia, (along with the continued war drums against North Korea), is a perfect trigger point that provides a catalyst for mass distraction.

World economic war is the real name of the game here, as the globalists play puppeteers to East and West. It is a geopolitical crisis they will have created to engineer public support for a solution they predetermined.

The Intrigue At The Heart Of The Beijing-Riyadh-Washington Triangle

Authored by Valentin Katasonov via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Saudi Aramco (the Saudi Arabian Oil Company) is the world’s largest petroleum business. It owns more than 100 oil and gas fields in Saudi Arabia with reserves of at least 264 billion barrels of oil, which is estimated to be approximately one-fourth of the world’s known reserves of this raw material. The company’s production figures do not give the full picture, as data exists only for a few years. But as an example, in 2013 Saudi Aramco produced 3.4 billion barrels of crude oil. Analysts calculate that every year the Saudi company extracts about twice as much oil and gas, in terms of barrels of oil equivalent, as the largest US company ExxonMobil. Interestingly, Saudi Aramco never appears in the rankings of the world’s largest oil producers, since it does not publish financial information such as profit, sales, assets, or market capitalization. Therefore America’s ExxonMobil and Chevron, China’s Sinopec and PetroChina, the Anglo-Dutch company Royal Dutch Shell, Great Britain’s BP, and France’s Total top the rankings. But everyone knows perfectly well that these leaders in the global oil industry are mere dwarfs compared to Saudi Aramco.

Saudi Aramco’s management set off a real bomb in early 2016 when they announced their plans to privatize part of the company through a stock market IPO. The proposal was to sell shares in Saudi Aramco equal to about 5% of the company. But an estimate of the company’s potential market price is needed in order to understand how much this would be in absolute terms. Almost the next day after the announcement of the potential sale of part of the company (in January 2016), the global media published a stunning evaluation by the independent oil analyst Mohammad Al Sabban, a former senior adviser to the Saudi Arabian oil ministry. He estimated the company’s worth at $10,000,000,000,000 (ten trillion USD). For comparison I should add that in 2016 the largest US oil company, ExxonMobil, barely exceeded $350 billion in share capital. And yes, It’s true that later on some of the hype in the assessments died down and more rational numbers were cited, most often $2 trillion. This meant that Saudi Arabia would be able to rake in approximately $100 billion from the sale of 5% of the company. But the company’s biggest trump card isn’t even the current record levels of oil production, but rather the reserves of hydrocarbon raw materials at Saudi Aramco’s disposal. And that’s a number that none of the companies named in the rankings of the global oil industry can even begin to approach.

At present, Riyadh adjusts and verifies the data on the hydrocarbon reserves in the fields owned by Saudi Aramco. Financial reports are painstakingly drafted in the needed formats for a public offering of shares. The company is being restructured to optimize the way it is organized and managed. And finally, a crucial step was taken to lower the taxes on the company’s profits. The traditional tax rate has been 90%, but this year it was set at 50%, which roughly corresponds to the level at which the leading Western oil companies are taxed. Lowering the tax rate raises dividends and makes the company a more attractive target for investment.

But beginning in early 2017, the estimates of Saudi Aramco’s market value have unexpectedly begun to decline. Appraisals began to surface that claimed the company’s share capital was only worth $1.5 trillion, then $1 trillion. The consulting firm Wood Mackenzie estimated Saudi Aramco’s worth at $400 billion overall, bringing it closer to US-based ExxonMobil. And suddenly Western consultants began talking about the need to “discount” the value of the Saudi company, since it is state-owned, and in the securities markets all government issues are by convention sold “at a discount.” They point out that although Saudi Aramco currently pays 50% of its profits in taxes, since the government owns the company anyway it could restore the 90% tax rate tomorrow with a simple stroke of the pen. There is also the fear that oil prices could be low for the next few years, and Saudi Aramco might not be able to generate big profits. But none of that can remotely explain why the valuations of the Saudi company have dropped so precipitously in the past year.

Analysts blame this on the pressure Washington is putting on Riyadh, for reasons that have as much to do with the currency market as the oil market. And the pressure coming from Washington is, in turn, a response to the pressure also being exerted on Riyadh by China, which wants to buy oil from Saudi Aramco in renminbi instead of dollars. China is currently the world’s biggest oil importer, knocking the US out of its former first-place position. China is also the Saudi oil industry’s biggest customer, and Beijing does not want to pay extra for that black gold using American currency. A number of oil exporters that sell to China have already partially or entirely transitioned to settling their accounts in renminbi. Topping that list are Nigeria and Iran. Russia has also recently begun to sell some oil to China for renminbi (although only small percentage as yet).

Saudi Arabia, however, is heavily dependent on the US and has thus far refused to settle its accounts in renminbi. And that rebuff is costing the country dearly: Beijing is gradually finding other suppliers to take Riyadh’s place. The Saudis used to be China’s biggest foreign supplier of oil, but recently Russia has squeezed them out for that number-one spot. If this continues, Saudi Aramco might lose its Chinese market altogether.

Riyadh now finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place. It’s hard to imagine what Saudi Arabia could be hit with from across the Atlantic, should it sell even one barrel of oil for Chinese currency. After all, that would be a direct challenge to the petrodollar, which was born right there in Saudi Arabia in the 1970s, midwifed by the negotiations between Henry Kissinger and King Faisal.

Washington has sternly warned Riyadh to refrain from any ill-considered move to replace the dollar with the renminbi in its transactions with China, lest other players in the oil market follow suit (oil might then be traded for rubles, rupees, rials, etc.) And tomorrow that epidemic of transitioning to national currencies could infect other commodity markets. Incidentally, this year Beijing will begin to trade oil futures priced in renminbi on its commodity exchanges and claims that this is only the first step.

Voices have already been heard within the US president’s entourage that suggest blocking the listing of Saudi Aramco shares on the New York Stock Exchange. Signs have emerged of an organized campaign to short-sell the Saudi oil company. In light of that development, Riyadh has announced that it will put off its share listing until a later date. But its problem isn’t going to go away - Saudi Arabia will still have to make a choice between the dollar and the renminbi.

Although Beijing is upping its pressure on Riyadh, it is also simultaneously offering to directly buy out 5% of Saudi Aramco, while allowing the Saudis to forgo the usual ritual of listing shares on Western stock markets. And China is prepared to shell out a “fair” price (about $100 billion). The Chinese government has already announced that it is forming a consortium of energy and finance companies, plus China’s sovereign wealth fund, in order to purchase a “chunk” of the Saudi company. The Chinese media reports that that consortium is ready to become a cornerstone investor in Saudi Aramco.

Beijing’s winning move in its chess game against Washington has neutralized the US threat to disrupt the sale of Saudi Aramco, while simultaneously pushing Riyadh toward a decision to transition Saudi oil sales to the renminbi.

And so the plot thickens inside the Beijing-Riyadh-Washington triangle of intrigue.

Saudi Wealth Fund Aims To Double AUM To $400 Billion By 2020 - Discovers Leverage Boosts Returns

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, a key engine of the kingdom’s plan to diversify the economy, on Wednesday laid out new targets for growth, saying it aims to nearly double the value of assets it manages to around $400 billion by 2020. That sum includes the expected proceeds from the planned initial public offering of up to 5% of state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco. The listing, slated for next year, could raise as much as $100 billion, Saudi officials have said. The Saudi fund, called the Public Investment Fund or PIF, held assets worth roughly $224 billion as of September, it said in a document released on Wednesday. It had previously struggled to calculate the value of its holdings, estimating them to be between $200 billion and $300 billion. The PIF has made a series of high-profile investments and announcements since Saudi Arabia unveiled its long-term plan for economic overhaul last year. It has invested $3.5 billion in Uber Technologies Inc., and committed $45 billion to a technology fund led by SoftBank Group Corp.

The PIF’s announcement highlighted its aim of raising the fund’s annual returns.

“The Program also encompasses efforts to maximize value in PIF’s existing assets, which make up the majority of the Fund’s holdings, and a new target to increase PIF’s Total Shareholder Returns (TSR) up from 3 percent to between 4 to 5 percent.”

While our calculation suggests that they’ll need at least 5% to reach $400bn by 2020, Reuters reports that the PIF is even more optimistic about the “long-term”, aiming for 6.5-9.0% - all-time highs in equities and all-time lows in bond yields notwithstanding.

How will it do this?

As Reuters reported from the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, it will invest in almost every asset class (apart from gold and cryptos it seems) and – this might be important - add leverage to juice its performance.

“The 96-page program said PIF will structure its investments in six areas: Saudi equity holdings, sector development, real estate and infrastructure, mega projects, international strategic investments and a “diversified pool” across global asset classes….

 

Outside of Saudi Arabia, PIF’s investments will be in a number of assets such as fixed-income, public equity, private equity and debt, real estate, infrastructure and alternative investments such as hedge funds, the fund said…

 

It also outlined its four major sources of funding to include capital injections from the government, government asset transfers, loans and debt instruments as well as retained earnings from investments.

The PIF’s managing director, Yasir Al-Rumayyan, explained to Bloomberg how it discovered collateralized lending.

“If you look at investments we have today, it’s basically all equity -- we need to look at leverage,” Al-Rumayyan said at the event Tuesday.

 

“If we’re in one project, we can use the underlying project as the base for the leverage with no recourse to the rest of the portfolio.”

It"s not just about returns, however. The PIF’s press release estimated that its program will lead to the creation of nearly 300,000 new jobs.

The Public Investment Fund (PIF) Program (2018-2020) has today been launched as part of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 Vision Realization Programs (VRP)…

 

The four key objectives underpinning the Program include growing and maximizing PIF assets; launching new sectors; localizing advanced technologies and knowledge; and building strategic economic partnerships…

 

The PIF Program, which is underpinned by 30 separate initiatives, will see the Fund’s AUM increase to SAR 1.5 trillion (over $400 billion) by 2020, creating 20,000 direct domestic jobs, more than half of which are high-skilled roles, and 256,000 construction jobs, which will increase PIF’s contribution to real GDP from 4.4 percent to 6.3 percent

For anyone who’s a tad skeptical about any of this, there were soothing words from “MBS” in the PIF’s press release. HRH Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al-Saud, said:

“The PIF Program represents a vital milestone as we work towards realizing Vision 2030. As well as being recognized for being well-capitalized, the Fund also wants to be known as being well-run, transparent and well-governed, and the PIF Program will ensure this ambition is delivered."

UK PMs Push Back As Regulators "Bend The Rules" To Accommodate Saudi Aramco IPO

All IPO’d up and no place to go? UK portfolio managers with $6.9 trillion resist rule bending by regulator to achieve Aramco London listing

Another potential problem for the world’s biggest ever (potential) IPO…

A lobby group representing UK portfolio managers with $6.9 trillion AUM has warned the UK financial regulator that bending the rules to accommodate Aramco’s IPO will damage London’s status as a global financial centre.

In a letter to the head of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the embattled Andrew Bailey, the Investment Association (IA) argued that it threatened the “high standards” of London’s listing regime.

In “Funds fire broadside over Saudi oil float”, the Sunday Times noted that “Britain’s largest investors have turned up the heat on the City watchdog over its controversial plans to allow Saudi Arabia’s oil giant to float in London.”

Besides the tricky issue of its oil and gas reserves (especially the Ghawar field), the IA argued in the letter that “For the premium segment of the UK main market, investors must have confidence that a company is run for all shareholders, not just the major or controlling shareholder.”  

Selling only 5% of the share capital, rather than the prescribed 25%, is one of the major stumbling blocks in terms of the listing regulations.

According to the London Stock Exchange, a premium listing meets “the UK’s highest standards of regulatory and corporate governance.”

However, regulations are made to be broken…not just by banks and funds…but (when it suits) by the regulator itself, it seems. The FCA’s Bailey has proposed a new category of premium listing which would be tailor-made for government-controlled companies, like Aramco.

According to Bailey, investor safeguards would not be “weakened.”

It turns out that Bailey proposed the new category of premium listing after meeting and having conversations with Aramco and its advisers. As the Sunday Times reports, Bailey “emphasised during those conversations that we (FCA) were reviewing the listing regime.”

Perfect timing.

Clicking on the “About Us” tab on the FCA’s website, the regulator champions its wish that “consumers can place their trust in transparent and open markets” under the heading “Enhancing Market Integrity”.

Having said that, there is an option to click “No” after the question “Was this page helpful?”

In Bailey’s defence, it is possible that he’s being lent on by the British government to find a way to accommodate the high-profile Aramco IPO.

After all, Theresa May travelled to Saudi Arabia in April with the CEO of the London Stock Exchange, Xavier Rolet.

Here is Mrs May making the introductions in Riyadh on 5 May 2017.

Given the stringent anti-trust laws in the US and Aramco’s pivotal role in the Opec cartel, a US listing is also looking problematic. So, it’s no wonder that chatter about delays to the IPO or a private sale to China, or a consortium of sovereign wealth funds, has gathered pace.

Aramco denied such reports on Twitter over the weekend “All listing venues under review for optimal decision, IPO process is on track for 2018.”

If three denials are forthcoming, maybe we’ll know what’s really happening.

In the meantime, it’s embarrassing to the Saudi regime and not good news for improving its short/medium term cash flow problem.

Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In "Face-Saving" Move

We noted a month ago that the long-awaited Saudi Aramco IPO, scheduled for mid-2018, could be delayed to 2019, but now, according to The FT, Aramco is considering shelving plans for an IPO altogether in favor of a private share sale to the world’s biggest sovereign wealth funds.

The FT notes that talks about a private sale to foreign governments - including China - and other investors have gathered pace in recent weeks, according to five people familiar with the IPO preparations, amid growing concerns about the feasibility of an international listing.

The Saudi state oil company has struggled to select a suitable international venue for its shares, as New York and London have vied for what has been billed as the largest ever flotation.

The company would still aim to list shares on the kingdom’s Tadawul exchange next year if they pursue the private sale, the people said.

The latest proposal by the company’s financial advisers was described by one of the people as a “face-saving” option for Saudi Aramco, which has worked on plans to list its shares internationally for more than a year.

Desk chatter included comments that the Saudis were anxious about the level of due diligence and transparency involved in a public offering.

A Saudi Aramco spokesperson said:

“A range of options, for the public listing of Saudi Aramco, continue to be held under active review. No decision has been made and the IPO process remains on track.”

The planned listing of a 5 per cent stake in Saudi Aramco is the centrepiece of an economic reform programme led by Saudi Arabia’s powerful crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is keen for a 2018 IPO. He has said the company could be worth $2tn although a Financial Times analysis put the valuation figure at around $1tn.

An economic recession in the kingdom is piling pressure on the prince, the king’s son and next in line for the throne, amid calls for the government to increase investment and ease austerity. As we noted previously, there could be more at play here...

Some analysts view the possible IPO delay as a sign of the problems Aramco and the Saudi government currently face. A lack of transparency, issues with its oil and gas reserves, and the role of the Saudi government as the main stakeholder have all been suggested as the reason for this possible delay. Most of these suggestions, however, are based purely on issues surrounding the IPO itself. The true reason for this delay, however, likely hides among the intricate societal and economic problems in the Kingdom.

One obvious reason for a delay is the still-fledgling global oil price. A higher price setting—above $60 per barrel—would surely drive up the overall interest in the IPO. As long as OPEC and non-OPEC members, such as Russia, are still struggling to get a grip on the oil market, the potential for disaster looms. Needless to say, an oil price slump would have a detrimental effect on the expected revenues of the IPO.

The analysts, it seems, feel no need to look any further than this simple oil price explanation, but several other key factors should be addressed…

The impact of an influx of $1-2 trillion into the current Saudi economy is bound to have a significant impact. The implementation of Saudi Vision 2030 is broad and ambitiously planned. A full diversification of the economy is needed to guarantee work and salaries for future young Saudis, with the end of government subsidies or handouts.

A multitrillion investment scheme in a rather small local economy will likely result in total disorder, inflation and possibly ineffective investment schemes. The attractiveness of investing the total amount could lead to staggering inflation, higher costs and superfluous projects being realized.

A delay of such an influx of cash seems to be more and more attractive, giving the Saudi government and local industries more time to adjust and put in place the right steps for a sustainable and commercially attractive economic future.

We previously indicated that China could step in as a financial savior. With around 8.5 million bpd of crude oil imports, which is 2.5 million bdp more than in 2014, the attractiveness of having a stake in Saudi Aramco is huge. Even though an energy diversification program is in place, China’s imports from Saudi Arabia are going to increase. For Beijing, a stake in one of its main suppliers is a very attractive proposition. It will not only lock in Saudi crude oil and petroleum product exports to China but it will also provide some additional political and strategic clout in the heart of the Middle East.

There will, of course, be a few big bankers who will be upset as their billion dollar fee/commission just went up in smoke, but this may give MBS some breathing room - without the undue attention of an IPO -  as he deals with the nation"s economic slowdown. However, coming just a few days after the Saudi king"s trip to Moscow, the timing of this leaked information seems interesting at the least.

Why Saudi Aramco Delayed Its IPO

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,

The long-awaited Saudi Aramco IPO, scheduled for mid-2018, could be delayed to 2019.

International news reports have stated that the Saudi government is currently putting together contingency plans for a possible delay to the biggest IPO ever. The listing of 5 percent of Saudi Arabia’s crown jewel, the world’s largest oil company Saudi Aramco, could bring in around $300-$400 billion, based on a valuation of Aramco at between $1.5-2 trillion.

The cash generated by the IPO has already been earmarked for the coffers of the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), to be used as financial support for Saudi Vision 2030, the economic diversification program proposed and pushed for by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS).

Doubts about the valuation have been strong, but a success story for this particular once-in-a-lifetime IPO is all but guaranteed. International interest is growing and media reports are stumbling over each other to assess, criticize or support the IPO strategy. Presently, international advisors and banks have already been appointed, but no decision (officially) has yet been made on where Aramco will be listed. New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong are leading the race, but no white smoke has plumed from the chimney of the Saudi Royal Palace.

Some analysts view the possible IPO delay as a sign of the problems Aramco and the Saudi government currently face. A lack of transparency, issues with its oil and gas reserves, and the role of the Saudi government as the main stakeholder have all been suggested as the reason for this possible delay. Most of these suggestions, however, are based purely on issues surrounding the IPO itself. The true reason for this delay, however, likely hides among the intricate societal and economic problems in the Kingdom.

One obvious reason for a delay is the still-fledgling global oil price. A higher price setting—above $60 per barrel—would surely drive up the overall interest in the IPO. As long as OPEC and non-OPEC members, such as Russia, are still struggling to get a grip on the oil market, the potential for disaster looms. Needless to say, an oil price slump would have a detrimental effect on the expected revenues of the IPO.

The analysts, it seems, feel no need to look any further than this simple oil price explanation, but several other key factors should be addressed…

The impact of an influx of $1-2 trillion into the current Saudi economy is bound to have a significant impact. The implementation of Saudi Vision 2030 is broad and ambitiously planned. A full diversification of the economy is needed to guarantee work and salaries for future young Saudis, with the end of government subsidies or handouts.

A multitrillion investment scheme in a rather small local economy will likely result in total disorder, inflation and possibly ineffective investment schemes. The attractiveness of investing the total amount could lead to staggering inflation, higher costs and superfluous projects being realized. 

A delay of such an influx of cash seems to be more and more attractive, giving the Saudi government and local industries more time to adjust and put in place the right steps for a sustainable and commercially attractive economic future.

The crown prince’s future, and that of his supporters, also depends on the whole endeavor. A fully-fledged economic revival and restructuring could threaten power brokers and religious entities in the Kingdom. MBS has appeared to misunderstand the significance of these issues, but is currently stepping up to remove some of the apparent hurdles. His current policy to remove hardline fundamentalist religious leaders (partly under the name of Muslim Brotherhood allegiances) is a step he needs to take to control the opposition and solidify his own position.

At the same time, MBS’ future will also be decided soon, as rumors are growing of an upcoming abdication of the throne by King Salman. For MBS, as the new heir, stability is needed to prepare for this unprecedented move. Internal security is put in place, which could be impacted by the Aramco IPO not going according to plan. Opposition groups will take the opportunity to protest against his new status under the umbrella of an unsuccessful sale of the key company, while also dealing with Iranian tensions. A delay of the IPO could be a sign that for MBS, stability and the future of House of Salman has taken precedent over the Aramco IPO.

Taking this all into account, delaying the Aramco IPO until 2019 could be an astute move. The enormous task that the Saudi government has established under the umbrella of Saudi Vision 2030 will be incredibly difficult to achieve. Last week’s statements about an extension of the National Transformation Program (NT), the basis of Vision 2030, was the first sign of this.

Change is always difficult, but Saudi Arabia faces a daunting task. An implementation slowdown is needed in order to reduce the risk to the Saudi government. Aramco’s attractiveness is undebatable, and will be there, whatever happens. The future of the Kingdom of Oil however, is at risk if this transition is not carefully controlled.

Without MBS as captain of the Vision 2030, there will be no Vision 2030.

Trump Signs "Single Largest Arms Deal In US History" With Saudi Arabia Worth $350 Billion

When all other sources of economic growth appear tapped out, there is always the military-industrial complex coming to the rescue of US GDP with the sale of arms and equipment to the world"s biggest purchaser of weapons: Saudi Arabia. Because when one looks beyond the pageantry, pomp and circumstance of Trump"s visit to Saudi Arabia, the main purpose behind the president"s visit is precisely that: selling weapons, some $350 billion over the next decade, according to estimates.

To be sure, Trump arrival in Saudi Arabia on Saturday was quite a spectacle, with the Saudi king throwing the president"s family arrival at the Royal Diwan a "welcome fit for a king."

WATCH: President Trump, the First Lady and Ivanka arrive at Royal Diwan alongside prancing horses and flag-bearers https://t.co/93yD8pG7AT

— NBC News (@NBCNews) May 20, 2017

However, it is what was announced on Saturday that is the highlight of the various meetings between the Trump delegation and his Saudi hosts, who have promised to invest billions of dollars in the U.S. as well and make other decisions aimed at pleasing Trump.

According to a statement just issued by the White House, Trump "has just completed largest single arms deal in US history, negotiating a package totaling more than $109.7 billion" which will boost Saudi Arabia"s defense capabilities, bolstering equipment and services in the face of extreme terrorist groups and Iran.  The White House added that the deal will create defense jobs while also reaffirming America"s commitment to Saudi Arabia.

In Saudi Arabia @POTUS has just completed largest single arms deal in US history, negotiating a package totaling more than $109.7 billion

— Sean Spicer (@PressSec) May 20, 2017

“This package of defense equipment and services support the long-term security of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region in the face of Iranian threats, while also bolstering the Kingdom’s ability to contribute to counter terrorism operations across the region,” the White House said in a statement on Saturday, as quoted by CNBC News.

US President Donald Trump, along with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson who is accompanying him on the trip, will attend the signing of a memorandum of intent on the package, Reuters reports, citing a White House official.

“This package demonstrates, in the clearest terms possible, the United States’ commitment to our partnership with Saudi Arabia and our Gulf partners, while also expanding opportunities for American companies in the region,” the statement reads, according to Reuters.

The deal will provide Saudi Arabia, the world"s largest importer of weapons (for the breakdown of the world"s weapons trade, see "Visualizing The Global Weapons Trade"), with top-tier equipment and services including missiles, bombs, armored personnel carriers, Littoral Combat Ships, THAAD missile defense systems, and munitions.

According to estimates cited by The Indepdent, including restocking and future commitments over the next ten years, the deal could balloons to $350 billion worth of arms, over a third of a trillion dollars.

Gary Cohn, Trump"s chief economic advisor, said Saudi Arabia is “going to hire US companies” as a result of the defense deal. The goal of the deal is “to invest a lot of money in the U.S. and have a lot of U.S. companies invest and build things over here,” Cohn said, according to a White House press pool report.

The vast funds which will boost the US defense sector will be spent to "address Saudi Arabia"s defense needs while scaling back U.S. military involvement in specific operations" the Hill reported.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman began negotiations on this deal shortly after the 2016 US election when he sent a delegation to Trump Tower to meet with the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who is serving as a senior advisor of sorts to Mr Trump.

The deal will be what the Washington Post said is a “cornerstone” of the proposal encouraging the Gulf states to form its own alliance like the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) military alliance, dubbed “Arab Nato."

It"s not just weapons, however.

According to Bloomberg, Saudi Aramco will sign initial accords and joint-venture agreements valued at about $50 billion with companies including General Electric Co., Schlumberger Ltd. and Halliburton Co., Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser told reporters in Riyadh. These companies are “trying to expand their footprint in the kingdom by expanding trade between the two sides,” he said.

“Many of us sitting on the table are overseeing substantial investments in the United States,” Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said. “Sabic has a big platform with the acquisition of GE Plastics which they continue to build on.” Other deals will be announced today, he said.

Saudi Aramco also plans to sign accords with Baker Hughes Inc., KBR Inc., Jacobs Engineering Group Inc., Nabors Industries Ltd., Weatherford International Plc, McDermott International Inc. and Rowan Companies Plc, two people familiar with the matter said earlier this week.

And so, with industrial and manufacturing spending in the US having declined over the past two years following the collapse in commodity prices, mothballing much of US capital spending, US GDP is about to get a fresh boost courtesy of what has become the world"s most prolific arms dealer.

With that, both the neo-cons in D.C., as well as the all-powerful American Military-Industrial complex can declare a truly unprecedented victory.