One-Third Of The 2016 Spike In U.S. Homicides Came From Just 5 Chicago Neighborhoods

Authored by Thomas Lifson of American Thinker,

The full evil of the anti-cop hysteria pushed by left wing groups like #BlackLivesMatter will take many years to be understood, in no small part because of political and media support for the notion that racism on the part of cops is the sole cause for disproportionate numbers of black perpetrators in our crime statistics.

But every now and then, a statistic appears that cannot be easily dismissed. Jared Sichel of The Daily Signal brings one such figure to our attention.

Murders in the U.S. rose nearly 9% last year, and one-third of that increase came from just a few neighborhoods in Chicago, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of the FBI’s annual 2016 publication, Crime in the United States.

 

While violent crime (homicide, rape, assault, and robbery) also rose nationwide from 2015 to 2016 — over 4% — the data show the increase was not uniform, but rather concentrated in cities like Chicago and Baltimore.

(Chart per HeyJackAss!)

Other big cities, including Los Angeles and Washington, DC, saw meaningful declines in violence. So there is no broad trend, but rather local factors that must be accounted for. For instance:

Interestingly, the paper’s neighborhood-by-neighborhood analysis claimed that areas where homicides spiked had a “lighter street presence by police following officers’ high-profile killings of young black men.” (snip)

 

In Baltimore, violent crime rates were going down until 2015, when police officers “pulled back from a more proactive approach” following widespread city riots after the death of Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old black man who suffered a severe spinal injury while being transported in a police van on April 1, 2015, and died one week later.

But for the real statistical weight affecting overall crime stats, one has to look at Chicago, where the police have been under severe restrictions and where gang activity is out of control:

In Chicago last year, homicides jumped to 771, 58% higher than in 2015, and more than the number of murders in Los Angeles and New York combined. Half of that increase, the analysis showed, came from just five neighborhoods, and is largely attributable to gang warfare. In a “roughly four-mile radius of West Garfield Park,” for example, there are at least 30 gangs. (snip)

 

In Chicago, as in Baltimore, police became less proactive following protests against the fatal 2014 shooting of a black teenager, Laquan McDonald, by a white police officer, Jason Van Dyke, who has been charged with first-degree murder.

 

A FiveThirtyEight analysis found that in Chicago and other cities with high-profile deaths of black men involving police officers, a “pullback in policing was accompanied by a sharp increase in gun violence.”

All the anti-cop self-righteousness in the world won’t save one victim from gang violence. The BLM protestors, along the with hands up-don’t shoot crowd have been enablers of horrific violence that mostly is claiming black lives. Progressive politics often involves sacrificing the powerless for the purported greater good, even as the poseurs claim to be their righteous protectors.

Baltimore Murder Rate Surges Again In 2017 (Now Tied With Venezuela); Here"s How Your City Fared...

Once again this year, the Brennan Center for Justice has analyzed violent crime stats from the 30 largest cities in America to provide some insight on national trends.  Not surprisingly, this year"s report has is full of more bad news for the residents of cities like Baltimore and Chicago that have experienced devastating spikes in homicides over the past two years.

Looking at homicides per capita in 2017, Baltimore is clearly the most dangerous large city in the U.S. with a murder rate that is more than 4x the average of other large cities and some 40% higher than the second most dangerous city of Detroit.  To put things in perspective, the murder rate in Baltimore is now exactly tied with Venezuela at 57.2 murders per 100,000 residents.

Of course, as our readers are undoubtedly aware, high violent crime rates in cities like Baltimore and Chicago are hardly a new phenomenon.  Therefore, we decided to take a look at year-over-year changes in murder rates by city and made some interesting discoveries.  While Charlotte saw the biggest YoY spike, cities like San Francisco and Seattle, both of which are experiencing tech-induced economic booms, were also at the top of the list.

Finally, and not surprisingly, in terms of total homicides, the city of Chicago is still the big "winner" in 2017 with nearly double the number of murders of Baltimore.

Of course, as the Brennan Center notes, it"s not all bad news as aggregate crime in the nation"s top 30 cities declined 2.7%...

The overall crime rate in the 30 largest cities in 2017 is estimated to decline slightly from the previous year, falling by 2.7 percent. If this trend holds, crime rates will remain near historic lows.

 

The violent crime rate will also decrease slightly, by 1.1 percent, essentially remaining stable. Violent crime remains near the bottom of the nation’s 30-year downward trend.

 

The 2017 murder rate in the 30 largest cities is estimated to decline by 5.6 percent. Large decreases this year in Chicago and Detroit, as well as small decreases in other cities, contributed to this decline. The murder rate in Chicago — which increased significantly in 2015 and 2016 — is projected to decline by 11.9 percent in 2017. It remains 62.4 percent above 2014 levels. The murder rate in Detroit is estimated to fall by 9.8 percent. New York City’s murder rate will also decline again, to 3.3 killings per 100,000 people.

Conclusion: "What the hell is going on in Chicago"...and Baltimore and Detroit and Memphis and San Francisco and Seattle and....

Trump on crime in Chicago: "What the hell is going on in Chicago? What the hell is happening there?" pic.twitter.com/HMTANkGYSz

— Axios (@axios) December 15, 2017

Here is the full report from the Brennan Center for Justice:

Violent July Leaves Chicago Murders On Pace To Exceed 2016, The Bloodiest Year In Two Decades

One month ago, President Trump vowed to "send in the Feds" after Chicago"s murder rate continued to track roughly in-line with 2016, the most violent year for the city in nearly two decades.

Crime and killings in Chicago have reached such epidemic proportions that I am sending in Federal help. 1714 shootings in Chicago this year!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 30, 2017

Alas, with the month of July now over, the "Feds" don"t seem to be helping.

With 77 people killed in July alone, murders are up 4% year-over-year despite the federal assistance.  Moreover, those killed as the result of gun violence is up 9%.

Meanwhile, the month of July also recorded one of the city"s most violent Fourth of July holidays in history, with more than 100 people shot over the four-day weekend. That"s compared to 66 people shot over the holiday in 2016.

According to Chicago police, there have been 417 murders in the city so far this year on a total of 2,202 shootings.

Data Source: HeyJackAss!

As NBC points out, the soaring violence in 2017 comes despite the fact that 5,000 guns have been taken off the streets and gun arrests are up 30% YoY.

Chicago police reported last month that they have removed more than 5,000 guns this year off Chicago streets. The department has also rolled out several initiatives this year, including a high-tech ballistics van that was sent as part of the partnership with the ATF. That same partnership also sent 20 permanent ATF agents to the city, along with federal prosecutors, with the purpose of "prioritizing prosecutions to reduce gun violence, and working with our law enforcement partners to stop the lawlessness.”

"One of the things that I think people miss about this whole violence reduction is the fact that CPD - we’ve recovered over 5,000 guns this year, we’re up 30 percent in overall gun arrests - but the communities being affected, I don’t think they recognize the power that they have in the communities, their voices, to reduce this gun violence," Johnson said.

Not surprisingly, the majority of the violence remains concentrated in a few South and West side neighborhoods.

And, with 7 months of 2017 officially in the record books, here is how Chicago"s 2017 murders are stacking up against recent years.

Of course, it"s not just Chicago where violent crime is surging as the Midwestern neighbors of Milwaukee, St. Louis and Cleveland have also experienced a 68%, 18% and 33% increase in murders, respectively, compared to 2014.

These Are America's Most Dangerous Cities

Given that 2016 was the worst year for homicides in nearly two decades in Chicago, it comes as little surprise that the city has a reputation as one of the most violent places in the United States.

Last year, there were 762 murders, 3,550 shooting incidents and 4,331 shooting victims with an average of 12 people shot every single day.

In fact, the Windy City experienced more murders than New York and Los Angeles combined last year with the number of homicides there since 2001 eclipsing U.S. war dead in Iraq and Afghanistan by late November.

However, as Statista"s Niall McCarthy notes, even though it had more murders than any other U.S. city last year, is Chicago"s violent reputation entirely justified?

You will find more statistics at Statista

According to nonprofit news outlet The Trace, Chicago is actually far behind other major U.S. cities in homicides per 100,000 residents.

It found that between 2010 and 2015, New Orleans had a homicide rate of 46.9 per 100,000 inhabitants compared to just 16.4 in Chicago.

As bad a problem as Chicago has on its hands, this metric does show that many other cities actually have higher levels of violence.

"Chicago Is A War Zone": Police Suicide Rate Surges To 60% Above The National Average

During his early days on the force, 30-year-old, rookie Chicago police officer, Scott Tracz, was described by colleagues as an "upbeat" cop who had always dreamed of becoming a police officer to help people in his city.  That is, until he sat in a black sports car outside his girlfriend"s suburban house late last year, put his gun to his head and took his own life.  Per Reuters:

Tracz had long dreamed of becoming a police officer to help others. But working in the violence-stricken Chicago Lawn district, he came face to face with the city"s violent crime. The area accounted for 58 of the city"s more than 760 murders last year, as well as 228 shootings.

"He would say, "You can never imagine what the human race is capable of doing," then he would just put his head down," said his cousin Maciaszek, 46.

Unfortunately, stories just like the one of Scott Tracz are becoming all too common on the Chicago police force as officers deal with the psychological side effects of having to go to work every single day in Chicago"s "war zone."

"Chicago is a war zone," said Alexa James, the executive director of the National Alliance on Mental Illness-Chicago. "They (officers) are seeing the worst day of everybody’s life every day."

"Suicide is killing officers, alcohol is killing officers, at a far greater rate than ambushes, but there is not the same sense of urgency around this issue," said Christy Lopez, a former Justice Department official who led the Chicago federal probe.

Chicago police"s suicide rate was 29.4 per 100,000 department members between 2013 and 2015, the report said, citing police union figures. The department disagreed in the report, putting the rate at 22.7 suicides per 100,000 members. Both estimates were higher than the national average of 18.1 law enforcement suicides per 100,000.

As we"ve noted many times in the past, Chicago"s homicide rate in 2016 soared to levels not seen since the mid-90s when gang wars plagued the streets of cities all around the nation (charts via HeyJackAss!).

And, things aren"t getting any better so far in 2017...

...particularly in the city"s South and West side neighborhoods.

To add insult to injury, because of Chicago"s onerous gun laws that permanently prohibit anyone who has been involuntarily committed for in-patient mental health treatment from carrying a gun, a requirement for cops, the folks working for the Chicago PD generally refuse mental health services out of fear of losing their job.

Some officers believe that seeking counseling will result in the loss of their Firearm Owner Identification Card, a requirement to carry a firearm under state law, according to current and former officers, as well as health officials. That view is mistaken, say Justice Department officials.

Still, "If someone thinks I have talked to EAP they think I’m unstable, so I’m not going to call," said one veteran officer, who asked not to be identified.

Chicago Police Superintendent Eddie Johnson said in February the department"s past approach to mental health was wrong. In a report issued in March, the department said it would review mental wellness support services.

"Law enforcement historically has been seen as a very macho profession," Johnson said at a public forum about police reform. "To say you needed help was seen as a sign of weakness and we were wrong for looking at it that way, we were simply wrong."

But hey, at least the Obama administration sought to help Chicago Police officers by dropping a DOJ study, one week prior to departing the White House, effectively labeling their department as nothing more than a bunch of racist, hate-mongering bullies who routinely resort to the use of "deadly force" in violation of the Fourth Amendment of the Constitution.

2016 Chicago Homicides Even Higher Than Originally Reported

2016 was a record breaking year for the city of Chicago, unfortunately just not in any positive ways.  Throughout 2016 we noted several grim milestones that plagued the Windy City: the deadliest month in 23 years, the deadliest day in 13 years, 4,300 people shot...the list goes on and on.  And, as we noted a couple of weeks ago, when it was all said and done Chicago was thought to have recorded around 762 murders in 2016 (see "Chicago Violence Worst In 20 Years: "Not Seen This Level Of Disrespect For Police Ever"").  To put those numbers into perspective, Chicago recorded over 20% more murders in 2016 than New York and Los Angeles combined, despite having a fraction of the population.

And as bad as all those figures are, according to the Cook County Medical Examiner’s office, the actual number of homicides recorded in Chicago in 2016 were even higher than the official police data would suggest.  The discrepancy is largely due to the fact that the Medical Examiner"s office tallies “homicides” while the official police data tracks “murders," which exclude intentional killings that are deemed "justified" (e.g. police shootings).  So while the official police data suggests there were 762 murders in 2016 the county numbers reflect 812 homicides including all of the "justified" killings.

The record-setting violence in Chicago is even worse than announced as new evidence shows the city suffered 50 more homicides last year than the numbers publicly reported in the past week.

The city posted a decades-high homicide count of 812 in 2016, per the Cook County Medical Examiner’s office. That’s 15% greater than the 762 murders reported by the city"s police department.

The discrepancy is largely due to the fact that the county tallies “homicides” while the police number counts “murders.” Murders are defined as violent acts subject to criminal prosecution. Homicides, according to the medical examiner, include instances “when the death of a person comes at the hand of another person. This does not imply that all homicides are murders that would be subject to criminal prosecution.”

The city police count is also lower because it excludes violent, intentional deaths if the act is deemed justified, including police killings of residents.

Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of Chicago"s homicides came a result of gunshot wounds while ~80% of the victims in Cook County were African American.

Gun violence is the leading cause of death for victims of homicide in Chicago with 725 decedents being felled by at least one gunshot wound.

African Americans also bore the brunt of the violence in Cook County, which includes Chicago. They accounted for 710 of the county-wide total of 915 (88% of which occurred in the city). Men comprised 90% of the homicide victims in the county.

On a positive note, after a violent opening weekend to the year (see "3 Killed, 27 Wounded As Chicago Opens 2017 With A String Of Murders"), shootings and murders over the past week seem to be much lower than the run-rate for most of December.  Per HeyJackAss!:

And while we would like to hope the recent data points to a less violent 2017, the collapse in shootings seems to be perfectly correlated with a 5-day period of frigid temperatures that likely kept Chicago"s violent youth indoors for a few days.

3 Killed, 27 Wounded As Chicago Opens 2017 With A String Of Murders

A few days ago we noted that 2016 marked Chicago"s most violent year in 2 decades as homicides soared nearly 60% YoY and shootings spiked 46% (see "Chicago Violence Worst In 20 Years: "Not Seen This Level Of Disrespect For Police Ever"").  And while many would like to hope that the 2016 violence was a temporary phenomenon, 2017 looks to be getting off to a similar start.

As the Chicago Tribune points out, three people were killed and another 16 were shot and wounded just in the opening hours of the new year.

Three people were killed and 16 others were wounded during the first six hours of the year as the city ended a year that brought levels of violence that had not been seen in the city since the 1990s.

In total, four people were killed and 24 other people were wounded in separate shootings from New Year"s Eve to early Sunday.

Around 2:30 a.m. an unnamed man was shot by a Chicago police officer, authorities said at a news conference Sunday, about 12 hours after the shooting. They reported that a man led cops on a car chase and physically resisted once he was finally stopped. The man, who is in critical condition, was shot after a scuffle, police said.

About two hours later, two men were killed in the year"s first fatal shooting, which took place at 4:25 a.m. Sunday in the 4600 block of North Broadway in the city"s Uptown neighborhood on the North Side.

Meanwhile, Trump acknowledged Chicago"s bloody 2016 in a tweet posted earlier this morning criticizing Mayor Rahm Emanuel for his failure to curb the violence.  Of course, the reference to federal help is likely a retort to Emanuel"s vow to have Chicago remain a sanctuary city for illegal immigrants even if it means losing federal funding under a Trump administration (see "Chicago And Boston Join Cali In Refusing Assistance To Trump"s Deportation Efforts").

Chicago murder rate is record setting - 4,331 shooting victims with 762 murders in 2016. If Mayor can"t do it he must ask for Federal help!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 2, 2017

Data from HeyJackAss! reveals that New Year"s Day was the most violent day of the past month as a total of 30 people were shot, 3 of which died from their injuries.

And now that all the data from 2016 has been officially tallied, we find that a total 795 homicides and 4,378 shootings occurred during the year which equates to roughly 12 shootings and just over 2 homicides per day.

The 795 homicides recorded in 2016 marked a staggering 56% YoY increase.

Finally, as we reported throughout the year, the overwhelming majority of Chicago"s violence occurred in the city"s south and west side neighborhoods.

61 Shot, 12 Dead As Bloodiest Christmas In Years Rocks Chicago

The colder weather in the Midwest was supposed to bring with it a reprieve for the police and residents of Chicago from the historic levels of violence that have devastated that city this year.  Unfortunately, while the colder weather came the violence never subsided.

According to the Chicago Tribune, 61 people were shot over the long Christmas weekend and as many as 12 of those people have since died from their wounds, a level of holiday violence not seen in Chicago for years.  Meanwhile, per the Chicago Police Department, as much as 90% of those wounded over the weekend "had gang affiliations, criminal histories and were pre-identified by the department"s strategic subject algorithm as being a potential suspect or victim of gun violence."

The city has seen eight multiple-victim shootings, including two double homicides. One was an attack in the East Chatham neighborhood that left two dead and five others wounded, and an attack in the Austin neighborhood left two dead.

Much of the violence happened in areas "with historical gang conflicts on the south and west side of Chicago," said Anthony Guglielmi, a spokesman for the Chicago Police Department. He also referenced the department"s "strategic subject list," which is generated daily from a computerized algorithm and assigns a score from 1 to 500 based on such factors as a person"s arrests and the activities of his associates. Those people with a score in the upper 200s or higher are considered in danger of being shot or of shooting someone else.

"Ninety percent of those fatally wounded had gang affiliations, criminal histories and were pre-identified by the department"s strategic subject algorithm as being a potential suspect or victim of gun violence," Guglielmi said Monday.

While one might expect violence to subside as people gather with family to celebrate Christmas, per data from HeyJackAss!, the number of fatal shootings actually surged on Christmas day.

Meanwhile, the annual total of murders in Chicago for 2016 is creeping ever closer to the 800 mark.

While shooting totals were supposed to decline in the colder fall and winter months, as depicted in the chart below, 2016 did not follow the same trends as 2014 and 2015.  Unlike previous years, the number of shootings recorded in October/November of 2016 remained elevated at around the 400 level which matches the rate of shootings recorded during the summer months.

Finally, the estimate for 800 murders in 2016, which now looks all but inevitable, will be the highest level recorded in over two decades.