Hot November in Riyadh

This November in Riyadh, colder than ever, turned out be hot in the political sense and provided Saudi Arabia the front-page spaces of the world mass-media outlets. To be more precise, it was secured by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohhamad Bin Salman Al Saud, who, throughout the whole month, was pursuing extremely active foreign and domestic policies.

4th November became another landmark day. On this day, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh Airport, and the Prime-Minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri, being in the capital of the ‘Saudi state’, resigned. At the same time, 11 princes, 38 high officials and an array of other people ‘burdened’ with massive fortunes (208 people in total) were arrested in the same city on the corruption allegation and locked up in the ‘gilded cell’ of the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh luxury hotel, where they are still now.

These versatile events created a certain amalgam, which overshadowed the essence of what is happening and made the whole world be excited, suspecting that something is wrong in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The oil prices began to creep up, and many Western companies decided to take precautions and started hedging to reduce the risks and withdraw their capital from Saudi Arabia’s jurisdiction. The initial opinion of the analysts of the world mass media was that the internal political struggle in the kingdom was increasing, its internal and external position gives the signs of indecision and disorder, and it is unknown where the young prince is ‘at venture’, who is allegedly immature, hot-tempered, ambitious and makes one political mistake after another.

However, a more careful consideration of various aspects of the internal political, social and economic life of the country helps revealing other vectors.

What this means is that the young prince by launching an anti-corruption campaign got a great many of high-ranking officials, including members of the royal family, caught in the crossfire.

It goes without saying that those are right who assume that these arrests reflect the political in-fighting, whilst those who found themselves in the ‘Ritz-Carlton’, unable to prove their political reliability. They were up to no good with regards to the young prince and intended to rest upon the ‘soaking princes’, such as Muqrin bin Abdulaziz or Muhammad bin Nayef, to restore the lost power and positions. There are plenty of such versions on the vast Arab segments of Internet. However, even if the authors of theses versions, also stating that the conspirators were grassed to Mohhamad bin Salman by Donald Trump and CIA, are right, then, as of late November, one must admit that the young prince practically won the battle for the crown by arresting these people, and nowadays Saudi Arabia became much more stable than it was back in October.

Why might this statement be considered as reasonable? There are several reasons for this. First, for nearly three years, since January 2015, when his father acceded to the throne, also known in Saudi Arabia as MBS, conducted a whole series of large-scale shaking-up of the whole state machine of the country brilliantly and very professionally and unhorsed his main rivals. Whereby it was conducted quite competently (one could feel the powerful guiding hand of his father, who was acting throughout his life, as a ‘moderator’ in the royal family, as the most modern term suggests.

First, the weakest, however the most dangerous link was eliminated, from the point of view of the former laws of succession to the throne – the office of the successor of the Crown Prince was vacated by the youngest son of the kingdom’s founder King Abdulazis al-Saud – Muqrin. By not being an authoritarian person, but rather a bon vivant, he was satisfied with the ‘compensation’ that was offered to him by Sudairi Clan – Muqrin also refers to this. The post was passed to MBS, then a series of shaking-up measures in the state machine followed, where the young prince appointed his loyal people, mainly technocrat-businessmen, having no relation to the royal family and obliged by their elevation not due to the royal lineage or ‘royal blood’ flowing, but rather to the benevolence of the young prince. In the royal chancellery, a ‘smaller cabinet’ was created that consisted of the specially entrusted person to Mohammad. Further on, in the autumn of 2015, the company ‘Saudi Aramco’ went under the control of the young prince; this company brings the main revenues to the kingdom (90%). The half-brother of Mohammad – Abdelaziz was not allowed to take the helm – he was instead always holding the key positions in the Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources.

Secondly, by moving aside Prince Muqrin, Mohammad with the direct support of his father, started the attack on the the-then Crown Prince Muhhamad bin Nayef. It did not bring any results for a long time, the prince was not interested in the settlement compensation, evaded the plain talk and was clearly playing for time. His ambition would be to wait for the victory of Hillary Clinton and her team in the election of November 2016 in the USA, who gave him then (then on the behalf of the very same ‘democrat’, as she is, Barack Obama) assurances of the rise to power after death of King Abdullah. These assurances were being provided during the visit of Muhhamad bin Nayef to Washington in December 2014, several weeks prior to the death of the then monarch. However, the fate decreed in a different way: Donald Trump won the elections, who went to Riyadh on his first foreign trip, where he quickly found common ground with the young prince. And the latter, getting the picture of the changing trend, immediately encouraged the tune of the newly-elected American president to revive the American industry, by having signed quite a few military contracts for the amount exceeding 100 billion dollars. MBS established friendly contacts with Jared Kushner, who had visited the KSA three times before.

It is unknown what charms, apart from the military contracts, were used by MBS (one can only guess), however soon it became clear that the young prince looks for the team of D. Trump preferable as a partner than connected with the American ‘Deep State’ Muhhamad bin Nayef.

As a result, having formed the alliance, with the support of his father, with the other members of Sudairi Clan, MBS, by persuasion and menace achieved that Muhhamad bin Nayef resigned this June the post of the Crown Prince, by passing this post on to the prince Muhhamad.

Thirdly, by smashing his political opponents stage by stage and then separately, the young prince easily eliminated, in essence, the last obstacle on the path to throne – the solid Fronde of the chief of the Saudi Arabian National Guard, son of the former King Abdallah, Prince Mutaib. It should be noted that the National Guard was created by King Abdallah as his personal Praetorian Guard, which ensured his rise to power in 2005. The tribes supporting it and being its part were transferred to Abdallah and his son Prince Mutaib, who was the only one brave enough to keep the portrait of his father in his official residence after his death.

However, as before, by swift and calculated actions, MBS could remove Mutaib from his post promptly and neutralise the sheiks of the tribes that were supporting him. Here he rested upon the whole Sudairi Clan after the resignations of Muqrin and Muhhamad bin Nayef, who never liked Abdullah – ‘the wanna-be’, in their opinion, from the tribe of Shammar (his mother originated from there).

Considering this, even if the November plot of the now arrested princes and other persons took place, it was not particularly dangerous for Mohhamad bin Salman. And having revealed the plans and playing the game of the ‘fight against corruption’, he, as it appears, won twice, if not three times. First, the remnants of the opposition have been arrested and are in his hands. Secondly, they all look like miserable corruptionists, thinking only about their own pockets and opposing the progressive reforms of the prince. Thirdly, he has already made 100 billion dollars out of them, practically having covered the deficit of the Saudi Arabia budget for this year and he is sure to make more out of them. At the earliest, the assets of the arrested persons will be transferred under the control of the state, that is under his personal control, together with the positions, which these people occupied in the Board of Directors of the largest financial institutions of the West, which makes MBS an independent and a strong player in the world finances. Now, even if someone wanted to ‘bear’ and not to allow the planned IPO of ‘Saudi Aramco’ for 2018 in the amount of 200 billion dollars (where the attempts to put the market-appraisal of the company too low have been made recently), he will hardly succeed in this now.

Thus, the question of the succession to throne of the powerful enough in the political and financial respect, Mohhamad Bin Salman now became only formal. Only he and his father are now choosing the right moment for this occasion. There are all good reasons to believe that this event will take place soon, possibly, before the end of this year.

Maksim Egorov, a political observer for the Middle East, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

 

Saudi Arabia and Qatar: Irreconcilable Differences

Both oil-rich countries are rogue states. They’re family dictatorships, state-sponsors of terrorism, guilty of high crimes against peace, defiant of rule of law principles.

Riyadh and its rogue allies (the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt) want Doha transformed into a subservient vassal state, its resources exploited, its wealth stolen, perhaps regime change demanded next.

A sweeping 13-point ultimatum reads like post-WW I Versailles terms – unacceptable to any nation wishing to retain its sovereignty. Here’s the dirty baker’s dozen:

1. Curb diplomatic ties with Iran. Close its diplomatic missions. Expel members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp. Agree to commerce and trade allowed by the JCPOA nuclear deal alone.

Both countries share a common natural gas field, its production and possible pipeline plans not likely to be abandoned.

2. Sever ties with terrorist organizations, not ones Qatar, Riyadh and its rogue allies support, just the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah.

Neither is a terrorist organization. Hezbollah is a legitimately elected part of Lebanon’s government.

3. Shut down Al-Jazeera, the Qatari owned, funded and operated propaganda service.

4. Shut down other news outlets Qatar funds, directly and indirectly, including Arabi21, Rassd, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed and Middle East Eye.

5. Expel Turkish forces from the country. End internal joint military cooperation.

6. Cease funding and supporting all groups and individuals designated by Riyadh and its rogue allies as terrorists.

7. Hand over alleged “terrorist figures” and other individuals wanted by Riyadh and its allies. Freeze their assets and provide information on their location, movements and finances.

8. Stop granting citizenship to individuals wanted by the Saudis and its allies. Stop alleged interference in their internal affairs. Revoke citizenship for individuals demanded by these countries.

9. Cease contractual relations with designated political opponents of the Saudi dictatorship and its rogue allies. Hand over all documents explaining contacts and relations with these groups and individuals.

10. Pay reparations to Riyadh and its allies for alleged loss of life and financial losses, the sum to be determined.

11. Consent to monthly audits for a year, quarterly for a second year, for the next decade Qatar to be monitored annually for compliance.

12. Ally with other Gulf States and other Arab nations politically, economically, militarily and socially – in line with a 2014 agreement with Riyadh.

13. Agree to all of the above in 10 days or the demands become invalid – no further elaboration on what’s next if Qatar refuses.

It’s unimaginable any country would accept these demands willingly. They amount to unacceptable unconditional surrender.

How Washington intends dealing with this situation remains to be seen. On Wednesday, Rex Tillerson said demands on Qatar should be “reasonable and actionable,” adding:

“We support” Kuwait acting as mediator, “and look forward to this matter moving toward a resolution.”

Qatari foreign minister Sheikh Abdulrahman al-Thani earlier rejected interference in his country’s internal affairs.

Doha’s ambassador to Washington Meshal bin Hamad al-Thani stressed “Qatar has the right to chart its own course, without the interference of other nations, and that is what we can and will do. The door to the negotiating table will stay open.”

Riyadh and its rogue allies slammed it shut with their unacceptable demands. What comes next may further destabilize the region.

A Final Comment

In response to the 13-point ultimatum, Qatari communications office director Sheikh Saif al-Thani said the following:

“This list of demands confirms what Qatar has said from the beginning. The illegal blockade has nothing to do with combating terrorism. It is about limiting Qatar’s sovereignty, and outsourcing our foreign policy.”

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said it’s studying the demands before “prepar(ing) an appropriate response.”

It’s likely to be go to hell in diplomatic language.

Persian Gulf Feud

Riyadh accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism ignores the pernicious regional infestation of Saudi-supported extremist Wahhabism, the ideology connected to ISIS and likeminded groups.

Both countries support regional terrorist groups, both US allies, despite mixed messages from Washington on Qatar.

Secretary of State Tillerson called for “no further escalation by the parties in the region, (urging) calm and thoughtful dialogue” to resolve things, asking other Gulf states to ease their blockade, citing humanitarian reasons ignored by Washington in all its wars.

Qatar is home to the Pentagon’s Central Command, thousands of US military personnel stationed in the country. During his visit to Riyadh, Trump met with emir al-Thani, saying Washington’s “relationship (with the country) is extremely good.”

On Friday, he tone changed, calling Qatar a longtime “funder of terrorism at a very high level…Stop teaching hate. Stop the killing,” he said.

The diplomatic standoff continues. Iran offered Qatar use of its southern ports to import needed goods. The tiny Gulf state is import-dependent.

On Wednesday, an Iranian cargo plane delivered tons of supplies to Qatar. National Agricultural Products Federation of Iran president Reza Nourani said talks are underway to export food to the nation.

It’s currently sending around 50 tons daily to the region. Some of it could be diverted to Qatar. Iranian ships can supply much more of what’s needed.

Turkey’s Erdogan pledged support for the al-Thani regime, one rogue leader supporting another.

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, Egypt, one of the rival Libyan regimes, the Saudi-supported Yemeni one, and the Maldives cut ties with Qatar, imposing a land and sea blockade.

On Thursday, they designated 59 individuals and 12 entities in the country as terrorist organizations.

Qatar is Turkey’s staunchest regional ally. It plans building a military base in the country to confront unnamed “common enemies,” according to Turkish ambassador Ahmet Demirok.

Ankara is already allied with Qatar militarily, small numbers of its forces in the country. Plans are for many more to be deployed.

Gulf states welcomed Trump’s criticism of Qatar. It has nothing to do with supporting terrorism, no nations more supportive than America, its key NATO allies, Israel, the Saudis and other regional rogue states.

Part of the dispute is over Qatari/Iranian ties and its alleged Muslim Brotherhood support. A larger issue is over control of regional oil, gas, pipelines supplying it and their routes.

If the region wasn’t resource rich, it wouldn’t suffer from endless US-led wars. Syria is targeted for regime change to eliminate an Israeli rival and isolate Iran – ahead of longstanding plans to replace its government with pro-Western puppet rule.

Will Saudi forces invade Qatar to transform the state into a Riyadh satellite? Is Trump signed on to the scheme?

Is another regional war likely besides those raging in Iraq, Syria and Yemen?

Institute for Gulf Affairs director Ali al-Ahmed believes it’s coming. He “received reports of Saudi military movements near the Qatari border” days earlier.

“They are preparing,” he said. If Saudi terror-bombing of Yemen eases, it would indicate a likely move against Qatar, he said.

“I have it on good authority that Trump has already told the Saudis he would have no objection,” he explained. Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain will support the action, he added.

Riyadh wants Qatar reduced to satellite state status, along with control over its resources and cash reserves, said al-Ahmed.

“Saudi Arabia was a state founded on the principle of robbery and looting. That is what the al-Saud originally were: They were desert raiders and looters. They were desert pirates. Now they desperately need money again,” he explained.

If he’s right, Saudi war on Qatar with US and regional support could happen any time.

Egypt Court Rejects Plan to Give Red Sea Islands to Saudis

January 16, 2017   |   admintam

(MEE) A top Egyptian court on Monday rejected a plan to transfer two uninhabited Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia in a deal that provoked outrage among Egyptians.

The Egyptian government had appealed against a lower court ruling in June that found the controversial border demarcation agreement was illegal.

But the courtroom erupted in cheers on Monday as the judge delivered the final verdict on the issue, with lawyers and activists chanting: “These islands are Egyptian.”

Tiran and Sanafir are our right, Egypt’s right, the right of our children and of our ancestors who were killed there

– Island protest organizers

Ownership of Tiran and Sanafir, the uninhabited islands at the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba, has long been disputed, with Cairo and Riyadh both claiming them, although they have been under Egyptian control for more than 30 years

They are considered strategically important because they lie on the key sea route to the Jordanian port of Aqaba and the Israeli port of Eilat.

The islands were occupied by Israel in 1967 during the Six Day War, before being handed back to Egypt in 1982 when the two sides signed the Camp David peace accords.

Islands deal resulted in aid

A deal to hand over the islands was signed during a visit to Cairo last year by Saudi King Salman, when Riyadh showered Egypt with aid, provoked accusations that the government had “sold” the strategic islands.

Cairo said the islands were Saudi to start with but had been leased to Egypt in the 1950s. But the court said it was its “unanimous” decision that the two islands were sovereign Egyptian territories.

The islands saga has deeply wounded national pride and brought people out onto the streets against the government of president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. “Our right to this land is won by blood, not by documents and maps,” protest organizers wrote on their Facebook page at the time, while showing images of Egyptian soldiers on the island of Tiran in 1967.

“We gave more than 100,000 martyrs in our wars with Israel to restore this land. Tiran and Sanafir are our right, Egypt’s right, the right of our children and of our ancestors who were killed there.”

More than 150 protestors were jailed following mass protests against the decision, according to Human Rights Watch.

The Muslim Brotherhood said at the time “that no one has the right to abandon the property and resources of the Egyptian people in exchange for a fistful of dollars”.

Cairo and Riyadh ties may get complicated

But this latest and final ruling may complicate ties between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, a main financial backer of Sisi since he came to power in 2013.

Relations have cooled over Egypt’s stance on Syria, which is seen as closer to Russia: Moscow backs President Bashar al-Assad, while Saudi Arabia supports rebels fighting to topple the Damascus government.

In 2010, Egypt and Saudi Arabia began formally discussing the drawing of their maritime borders, including the ownership of the two islands.

The islands deal was one of several choreographed announcements during King Salman’s visit. More than a dozen other accords, including plans for a Red Sea bridge and a memorandum of understanding to set up an industrial zone in Egypt, were also announced at the time.

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This article (Egypt Court Rejects Plan to Give Red Sea Islands to Saudis) by MEE and agencies originally appeared on MiddleEastEye.net and was used with permission. Anti-Media Radio airs weeknights at 11pm Eastern/8pm Pacific. If you spot a typo, email edits@theantimedia.org.