Modi Throws $32bn At Indian State Banks – Share Prices Surge

Share prices of Indian state banks surged as the government announced it would hand over $32bn to recapitalize the sector. According to Reuters, the motivation was a bid by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to tackle a major drag on the economy that has frustrated his attempts to boost growth.

Once the world’s fastest-growing major economy, India has seen its growth rate plummet to the lowest in three years, far below levels needed to create enough jobs to absorb the million Indians joining the work force every month. Modi’s government has tried to respond by stepping up public spending, but the slowdown has stressed its finances, making it imperative that private investment picks up the slack. Officials privately admit they have struggled to revive private investment because state-owned banks, which provide much of the credit in the economy, are saddled with a mountain of bad debt…

 

Twenty-one state-run banks account for more than two-thirds of India’s banking assets. But they also account for a bulk of the record 9.5 trillion rupees ($145 billion) of soured loans. In addition to repairing their balance sheets, the banks need billions of dollars in new capital to meet global Basel III banking rules, due to fully kick in by March 2019. Fitch Ratings estimates Indian banks will need $65 billion of additional capital by March 2019 to meet Basel III global banking rules. Moody’s expects the top 11 state lenders alone will need nearly $15 billion.

That’s what we call a trend reversal…

Here is Bloomberg’s take...

India’s government has won a resounding reception from investors and credit-ratings firms for its unprecedented pledge of 2.11 trillion rupees ($32 billion) in capital for the country’s beleaguered state banks.

The move, which drove an index of government-run banks up as much as 26 percent, is part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal to help lenders meet tighter capital-reserve requirements, as slower economic growth and falling demand erode borrowers’ ability to repay loans. Soured debt is now the highest since 2000, hampering credit expansion that’s needed to spur Asia’s third-largest economy.

“The proposed infusion is a sizable jump over what had been pledged before as India is seeking to plug a large part of the core equity gap at the state-run banks,” said Jobin Jacob, a Mumbai-based associate director at Fitch Ratings Ltd. This addresses “weak core capitalization, one of the key drivers for our negative outlook on the South Asian nation’s banking sector.”

Moody’s Investors Service analyst Srikanth Vadlamani said the move is a “significant credit positive” for India’s state-run banks. The amount of capital pledged is enough to address the lenders’ solvency challenges and recapitalize them adequately, Vadlamani, who is vice president of the financial institutions group at the unit of Moody’s Corp., said by phone.

In the end, there was no alternative than for the Indian government to provide additional capital. While investors have shunned the state-owned banks due to poor profitability and asset quality, the situation was further complicated by the requirement for the state to maintain at least 51% ownership. Ratings agencies, Fitch and Moddy’s have been highlighting the weakness in capital ratios.

Delving into some of the details of the capital injection, Bloomberg explains, the government will sell 1.35 trillion rupees of recapitalization bonds, while banks will raise another 760 billion rupees through “budgetary support” and from the markets, according to the plan announced Tuesday. The funds vastly outstrip the 700 billion rupees that India had pledged two years ago to inject by 2019, and is likely a recognition that the government had underestimated the impact ballooning bad loans would have on credit growth…

“These funds will help in efficiently managing risk and credit capital-related requirements of the banks,” State Bank of India Chairman Rajnish Kumar said in an emailed statement.

Bloomberg summarised market reaction in stream of consciousness fashion.

Analysts say the step is “sentimentally positive” and will help lenders meet over 70% of their capital needs but lending won’t grow immediately. Punjab National Bank jumps as much as 40%, most on record; Bank of Baroda surges as much as 29%, State Bank +25%. Recapitalization amount is “huge,” will help banks meet higher provision requirements under new accounting rules starting April 2018 Citi (Manish Shukla, Abhishek Sahoo) Timely recapitalization of government banks will boost capital adequacy, even after they make provisions for soured loans However, private sector demand -- muted over past few years -- has to revive for loan-growth to recover CLSA (Aashish Agarwal, Prakhar Sharma, Aditya Jain) Plan should help satisfy more than 70% of lenders’ needs required for lending to increase, absorb “haircuts” on stressed loans Punjab National Bank, Union Bank raised to buy from sell JEFFERIES (Nilanjan Karfa) India plan is “sentimentally positive” and makes all state banks “a basket trade” Bank lending won’t improve immediately, but it “partially solves” supply of capital flow; stoking demand needs to be worked at separately MORGAN STANLEY (Anil Agarwal, Sumeet Kariwala, Subramanian Iyer) State lenders can now “take the required hits” arising from soured loans, make proper provisions, and move ahead Insolvency rule was helping bad-loan resolution, recapitalization will accelerate it NOMURA (Adarsh Parasrampuria, Amit Nanavati, Riddhi Jain) “Big state banks recap” is a game-changer; expect re-rating in state-owned banks Infusion “highly dilutive” but very positive for FY19 adjusted books

As ever, you can’t please everybody as Reuters noted...

Mohan Guruswamy, an economist in New Delhi, said the government should have taken action three years ago to revive the banking sector. "Now it"s more expensive, and we will not see results soon," Guruswamy said.

 

"You Want To Play Chicken? Let's Play Chicken" Maine Governor Threatens Shutdown Over Proposed Tax Hike

Connecticut isn’t the only state in New England that’s facing a budget showdown today. As Reuters reports, Maine is bracing for a possible partial government shutdown on Friday – what would be the first in the state since 1991 - as Republican Governor Paul LePage has warned he will reject any budget deal that does not cut income taxes.

LePage, a second-term Republican who faced national scrutiny and calls to resign earlier this year after making an allegedly racist comment about out-of-state drug dealers worsening the heroin epidemic in Maine, said he would declare a state of civil emergency if a budget is not reached by midnight, which would keep state police, prisons, parks and tax collection services but close most other aspects of state government, according to Reuters.

"I will tell you this: If they put a tax increase, ready for a shutdown. End of story," LePage said in a Thursday interview on Maine"s WGAN radio. "They"re playing chicken at 100 miles per hour and I"m telling you something, you want to play chicken, let"s play chicken."

The conflict at the center of the budget showdown is the issue of funding the state’s schools, as Reuters explains.

“Legislators are negotiating a roughly $7 billion two-year budget, with the main sticking point being how to fully fund state schools. Voters in November passed a measure imposing a 3 percent income tax on state residents who earn more than $200,000 a year, a measure the governor and statehouse Republicans object to.

The Democratic Speaker of the state House of Representatives, Sara Gideon, has blasted the threat of a shutdown, saying earlier this week, "We must find a path forward and close this budget."

Maine state law gives the governor 10 days to respond to any budget passed by the legislator. LePage warned on Thursday he planned to wait that long before vetoing any budget that raised taxes. Most of the government would be shut during that time.”

Delays this year in negotiations leave the state, with a heavily tourist-dependent economy, facing the prospect of a partial government shutdown at the start of the long July 4 holiday weekend.”

Concerned about the potential impact of a shutdown, a local advocacy group is preemptively suing the state in federal court, seeking an order that would ensure that public assistance payments continue uninterrupted to the 450,000 people in the state, about one in three residents, who receive them.

To be sure, the stakes in Maine’s budget battle aren’t nearly as high as Connecticut’s. The nutmeg state has yet to pass a fiscal 2018 budget, and the deadline is Friday. Connecticut has the distinction of the third-worst ratings in the country, only behind Illinois and New Jersey after S&P, Moody"s and Fitch all downgraded the state last month in what officials described as a "call to action" for state leaders.

“We’ve been downgraded by everybody in the last six months, and in the last year two or three times,” Senate Republican President Len Fasano said cited by Fox news. “If we don’t pass a budget, I think we will see a further downward spiral.”

Connecticut is currently operating with a $5 billion budget deficit, and according to an analysis by Pew, the state only has $240 million in its "rainy day fund"; just five states have a smaller cushion. Much of the financial troubles are tied to the state’s pension system, which two-term Democratic Gov. Daniel Malloy’s office is seeking to address with a new plan to save the state $24 billion in “coming years.” One solution offered by Malloy is to require new state employees to be covered under a new hybrid pension system. The agreement, which Malloy’s office made with the state union, is tentative and awaiting legislative approval. Connecticut and Maine aren"t alone; Illinois also faces a Friday budget deadline that, if not met, could result in ratings agencies downgrading the state - which is struggling under the weight of unfunded public employee pensions - to junk status, virtually guaranteeing a debt-fueled death spiral that will likely lead to bankruptcy.

The showdown comes as Connecticut’s already narrow tax base has seen some major defections recently as corporations and wealthy hedge funds decamp for states like Florida, which offer lower tax rates, or cities like Boston and New York, which offer a stronger talent pool. Yesterday, we reported that Aetna, the insurance giant founded in Hartford where it has been for the past 164 years, announced it would move its headquarters to New York City despite intensive lobbying efforts by Connecticut officials. That move followed a departure by GE of its Fairfield HQ of 40 years.