Is Poland"s Patriot Missile Purchase A Paid Bribe To America?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Oriental Review,

Poland announced that it will purchase $10.5 billion worth of anti-air Patriot missiles from the US.

Technically, the official news event is that the State Department approved the possible sale and that Congress has 30 days to block it, but for all intents and purposes it’s widely considered that the deal will go through as planned. This means that the Central European country will strengthen its frontline position as NATO’s anti-Russian vanguard, crucially functioning as an indispensable component of the missile defense shield that the US is constructing around Russia’s borders. In and of itself, the Patriot system is presently incapable of neutralizing Russia’s nuclear strike capabilities, especially given the hypersonic missile advancements that Moscow has undertaken over the past couple of years in invalidating this strategy, but it worryingly sets the precedent that further missile-related infrastructure could one day be deployed on Russia’s borders.

The latent threat that this represents could also see Poland acquiring cruise missiles in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF, whether to augment its ground-based systems or its planned submarine ones in the future. Per the former, cruise missiles could be deployed to Poland under the guise of being Patriot anti-missile munitions, with Moscow being unable to adequately ascertain whether Warsaw is building up its defensive or offensive strike capabilities. This will likely contribute to the spiraling security dilemma between Russia and NATO, and Russia and Poland in particular, though with the inadvertent consequence being that Poland is essentially paying billions of dollars to improve its anti-Russian “soft power” credentials among its own population and the West at large.

This is very important for the ruling Law and Justice Party, popularly known by its Polish abbreviation PiS, because party leader and de-facto “grey cardinal” Jaroslaw Kaczynski has staked his reputation on being the West’s most vociferous Russophobe, partly in a bid to provoke more nationalist sentiment among his base and therefore distract from some domestic shortcomings. In addition, Warsaw shrewdly believes that its anti-Russian crusade is necessary in order to retain Washington’s support amidst Brussels and Berlin’s “EuroLiberal” opposition to the ruling authorities’ revolutionary “EuroRealism”, believing whether rightly or wrongly that a strong stand against Moscow can help PiS remain in favor with the EU’s American overlord and thereby preserve its hold on power in the face of Color Revolutionary threats.

As such, the costly $10.5 billion Patriot anti-missile system deal acquires self-interested strategic value for Poland because it allows the conservative government to “buy off” American support for its “EuroRealist” agenda, which also aligns with Trump’s ideological vision, but it dangerously risks provoking an uncontrollable orgy of nationalism at home that could easily spiral into its own set of problems.

Furthermore, Poland is reducing any realistic chance at normalizing ties with Russia after purchasing this weapons system, suggesting that the American-provoked “Cold War” between these two civilizationally similar Slavic neighbors will continue into the foreseeable future and remain a mainstay of continental geopolitics to the detriment of both states’ genuine national interests and the overall dynamics of the emerging Multipolar World Order.

US Approves $3.9 Billion Patriot Missile System For Romania; Putin: "We Will Be Forced To Respond"

On Tuesday the State Department approved the sale of $3.9 billion in patriot missile systems to NATO-member Romania after prior Russia warnings that such actions could be met with severe reprisals.

Photo source: Darkone/Wikimedia Commons.

The announcement, issued through the Pentagon"s Defense Security Cooperation Agency, is sure to be a huge shot across the bow following on the heels of Russian President Vladimir Putin"s earlier unambiguous words (issued in May) regarding further NATO build-up in the large Balkan country:

If yesterday in those areas of Romania people simply did not know what it means to be in the cross-hairs, then today we will be forced to carry out certain measures to ensure our security. We won"t take any action until we see rockets in areas that neighbor us. We"ve been repeating like a mantra that we will be forced to respond... Nobody wants to hear us. Nobody wants to conduct negotiations with us.

Romania"s US-built $800 million ballistic missile defense shield came online for the first time in May, just prior to Trump"s meeting with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis early the following month, where the two discussed defense spending and other economic concerns. Romania has been a NATO member only since 2004, but has steadily attracted the attention of Western defense companies – it has increased its defense budget to equal 2% of its GDP this year (approximately 4 billion US dollars) – one of only 5 NATO members to hit that target.

The Pentagon agency"s press release cast Romania as the potential victim of aggression in the region:

Romania will use the Patriot missile system to strengthen its homeland defense and deter regional threats. The proposed sale will increase the defensive capabilities of the Romanian military to guard against aggression and shield the NATO allies who often train and operate within Romania’s borders.

NATO build up encroaching Russian defenses. Photo source: The Risk Advisory Group.

The proposal now moves forward for Congressional as well as Romanian parliamentary approval, and will be delivered by Raytheon Corporation and Lockheed-Martin. Other US defense contractors are increasingly in talks with Romania to modernize its army, including General Dynamics, Bell Helicopter, and The Boeing Company. News of the Patriot missile deal was released the same day a massive Patriot missile deployment drill kicked off in Lithuania involving troops from the US, UK, Latvia, and Poland.

China Unveils New Ballistic Missile Capable Of Hitting Taiwan, US Bases In Asia

Two weeks after China allegedly unveiled a new ICBM system "in response to Trump"s provocative remarks", a report which however was subsequently denied by Chinese officials, China had no qualms about revealing another highly accurate ballistic missile in recent Rocket Force drills, which is capable of threatening not only Taiwan and the contested South China Sea islands, but also U.S. and Japanese bases in Asia.

As AP reports, the medium-range DF-16 featured in a video posted last week on the Defense Ministry"s website showing the missiles aboard their 10-wheeled mobile launch vehicles being deployed in deep forest during exercises over the just-concluded Lunar New Year holiday.

While the Rocket Force boasts an extensive armory of missiles of various ranges, the DF-16 fills a particular role in extending China"s reach over waters it seeks to control within what it calls the "first-island chain."

Some more details from the missile"s public profile,the DF-16 is a new-model missile that has a longer range than the DF-15 (between 1,000–1,600 km (620–990 mi)). A Taiwan official announced on March 16, 2011 that Taiwan believed China had begun deploying the missiles.

The DF-16 represents an increased threat to Taiwan because it is more difficult to intercept for anti-ballistic missiles systems such as the MIM-104 Patriot PAC-3. Due to its increased range, the missile has to climb to higher altitudes before descending, giving more time for gravity to accelerate it on re-entry, faster than a PAC-3 could effectively engage it. The DF-16 is a MRBM longer and wider than previous models with a 1,000–1,500 kg (2,200–3,300 lb) warhead. Its bi-conic warhead structure leaves room for potential growth to include specialized terminally guided and deep penetrating warheads. It is launched from a 10×10 wheeled TEL similar to that of the DF-21, but instead of a "cold launch" missile storage tube it uses a new protective "shell" to cover the missile.

In other words, as Sino-US diplomatic tensions over Taiwan, and the South China Sea contested islands continue to escalate with the US warning it would never concede sovereignty over the disputed naval area as per Rex Tillerson"s recent confirmation hearing, China has now openly unveiled, and telegraphed, its nuclear "first strike" optionality on both the islands - and Taiwan - should it need it.

First displayed at a Beijing military parade in 2015, the missile is believed to have a range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), putting it within striking distance of Okinawa, home to several U.S. military installations, as well as the Japanese home islands, Taiwan and the Philippines.

The two-stage DF-16 replaces the older, shorter range DF-11, with a final stage that can adjust its trajectory to strike slow moving targets and evade anti-missile defenses such as the U.S. Patriot system deployed by Taiwan.

It also carries up to three warheads weighing as much as a ton and carrying conventional high explosives or a nuclear weapon. Further increasingly its lethality, the missile is believed to be accurate to within as little as 5 meters (16 feet) of the target, similar to that of a cruise missile.