As Kurdish President Announces Resignation, Supporters Storm Parliament With Knives And Guns

Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani announced his resignation Sunday after the biggest gamble of his 12 years as president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) not only failed, but utterly backfired as territorial reversals reduced KRG power to its weakest position in decades. Though his push for an independence referendum had overwhelming support among Iraq"s Kurds, and with even the encouragement of some external allies, the decisive military response by the Iraqi national government resulted in rapid forced handover of Kurdish-held oil rich areas and a return to pre-2014 borders, prior to the blitz by ISIS which aided Kurdish political expansion. Barzani will step down effective November 1. 

And now the future of the KRG is itself under threat as reports of inter-Kurdish fighting emerged Sunday night. Multiple international reports characterized Barzani"s speech as "bitter" and it further appears that violence erupted during or after his televised speech before parliament. During the speech Barzani proclaimed that, "three million votes for Kurdistan independence created history and cannot be erased" while also denouncing rivals who abandoned the fight for Kirkuk as committing "high treason."

His supporters, angry at what is essentially a forced resignation after rival Kurdish factions failed to oppose Iraqi national forces as they advanced in Kirkuk and other areas earlier this month, reportedly stormed parliament brandishing knives sticks, and guns. There are also unverified reports emerging that opposition party members were attacked during the chaos, as well as arson attacks on opposition offices in various parts of Erbil. 

According to a statement described as an "urgent message" to the international community from the Speaker of Kurdistan Parliament, Yousif Mohammed Sadiq, we could be witnessing the start of a broader breakdown in security in Erbil: "We are gravely concerned about the attack on Kurdistan Parliament Building today by a number of rioters with utter disregard for all human values and at the encouragement of a political party without any attempt by the security forces to prevent them." 

Barzani supporters storm Iraqi Kurdish parliament as he announces his resignation. There were reports of wounded among Erbil opposition politicians and some media staff on Sunday. 

 

As Barzani steps down, chaos in Kurdistan parliament as a KDP mob attack opposition media by sticks, knife, may attack opposition MPs too. pic.twitter.com/Umt2f4wbwB

— Abdulla Hawez (@abdullahawez) October 29, 2017

A Gorran MP was attacked by unknown individuals for criticizing Barzani during a presser he held at the Parliament moments ago. pic.twitter.com/NAtpyTvNqq

— Rawaz Tahir (@TahirRawaz) October 29, 2017

More people armed with AK47 just arrived shouting “our president is Barzani “ #Kurdistan #Iraq pic.twitter.com/2MHMRJW6rF

— Fazel Hawramy (@FazelHawramy) October 29, 2017

Barzani supporters blame the recent disastrous KRG territorial losses on the Kurdish opposition party PUK, whose fighters generally allowed the previous advance of Iraqi forces after Baghdad ordered the pacification of Kirkuk city. The PUK has admitted that it reached agreement with the Iraqi military even as fighters representing Barzani"s Kuristan Democratic Party (KDP) continued to battle. For this reason the KDP Peshmerga accused PUK factions which refused to fight of “plotting” against the Kurds and committing “a great and historic treason.”

For the Kurds, the non-existent to lukewarm support for the referendum among international powers was the latest (and perhaps greatest) in a long list of historic betrayals. According to Kamal Alam, a Middle East analyst for the Royal United Services Institute the Kurds "overstretched and one cannot help but feel sorry for them" as they were effective fighters against ISIS after the Iraqi army all but disappeared from some parts of the country. 

Alam told BBC World Service radio in an interview late last week, "But they were warned not to do this referendum by both Baghdad and Turkey and they were hoping to capitalize on the disagreements between Ankara and Baghdad, but it seems the referendum brought both the two capitals together to work against Kurdish dominance." And he added "they thought that a hundred year wrong which had been done to them would be corrected and they were perhaps given some assurances in some Western capitals that this time we won"t let you down - you saw loads of Western officials say it and write about it... they have been let down again and now they"ll have to just stay with what they have."

As the Iraqi Kurdish independence project has now resulted in failure, it will be interesting to see how this impacts developments in Syrian Kurdish areas across the Iraqi and Turkish borders - no doubt the example of Iraq has now provided further incentive for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, whose core component is the Kurdish YPG) to go to the negotiating table with Syria and Russia, in the hope of retaining some kind of autonomous or federalized union with Damascus, as opposed to all-out war, which would result in being squeezed by Turkey from the north and Damascus from the south.

Moscow, Baghdad Sign Huge Arms Deal

Authored by Peter Korzun via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

It was reported on July 20 that Russia and Iraq have struck a deal on supplying a large batch of T-90 tanks. Vladimir Kozhin, the Russian president’s aide for military technical cooperation, confirmed the agreement but declined to provide details, saying only «the number of tanks is substantial». Russian military analyst Ruslan Pukhov told Russian newspaper Izvestia that the deal might cover deliveries of several hundred T-90 tanks, and that the contract may exceed $1 billion.

The T-90 is among the best-selling tanks in the world. Hundreds of vehicles have been sold to India, Algeria, Azerbaijan and other countries. A small number of tanks has been delivered to Syria to reinforce the military’s capabilities of combatting Islamic State (IS). Kuwait, Vietnam and Egypt are considering the option of purchasing T-90s.

Known for its firepower, enhanced protection and mobility, the T-90 features a smoothbore 2A46M 125mm main gun that can fire both armor-piercing shells and anti-tank missiles and the 1A45T fire-control system. Standard protective measures include sophisticated armor, ensuring all-round protection of the crew and critical systems, including Kontakt-5 explosive reactive armor and active infrared jammers to defend the T-90 from inbound rocket-propelled grenades, anti-tank missiles and other projectiles.

During the battle for Aleppo, Syria, a T-90 was hit by US-made BGM-71 TOW missile. The direct impact caused no damage

The agreement to purchase the tanks was also confirmed by the Iraqi Ministry of Defense. The T-90s will reinforce the Iraqi M1A1 Abrams fleet damaged in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) militants. The decision to buy the Russian tanks was prompted by the successful performance of T-90s in Syria. During the battle for Aleppo, Syria, a T-90 was hit by US-made BGM-71 TOW missile. The direct impact caused no damage. For comparison, in October last year, an M1 Abrams was hit by a 9M133 Kornet anti-tank missile at the Qurayyah crossroads south of Mosul. The missile rammed into the turret from behind to make the ammunition compartment explode.

In 2014-2016, Iraq received 15 Mi-28 NE Night Hunter attack helicopters from Russia. The delivery was part of a wider $4.2 billion defense package signed in 2012. The deal included a combination of 43 Mi-35 (28) and Mi-28NE (15) attack helicopters, plus 42-50 Pantsir-S1 combined short to medium range surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery weapons systems. The contract was fulfilled in October, 2016, as the attack helicopters and anti-aircraft systems had been delivered to the Iraqi military.

In 2014, Russia urgently sent several Su-25 aircraft upon the request of Iraqi government when the country’s military was losing ground during the IS offensive. The Iraqi military also uses Russia-produced TOS-1A Buratino heavy flamethrowers, Grad truck-mounted 122mm multiple rocket launchers, 152mm MSTA howitzers, Su-25 attack planes and armored vehicles.

Russia-made weapons were widely used in the battle for Mosul. One of the systems vastly used in the operation was TOS-1A 220mm 24-barrel multiple rocket launcher and thermobaric weapon mounted on the T-72 tank chassis designed for defeating enemy personnel in fortifications, in open country, and in lightly armored vehicles and transport. It can fire incendiary and thermobaric rockets. The munitions disperse a cloud of flammable liquid into the air around the target, and then ignite it to produce an explosion significantly longer and stronger in comparison to a conventional warhead. This is an effective weapon to strike terrorists hidden in bunkers and caves. Iraqi Russia-made Mi-28 and Mi-35 helicopters also effectively launched attacks against IS positions in Mosul.

A joint Baghdad-based Russia-Iraq-Iran-Syria operational center was established in 2015 to exchange intelligence and coordinate activities against terrorists. Iraq has allowed the Russian Air Space Forces to use its airspace for airstrikes against Islamists in Syria.

Trade turnout between the two countries is roughly $2 billion, mostly made up of Russian exports. In early 2016, a delegation of nearly 100 government and business officials headed by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, visited Iraq to boost cooperation on all spheres. The officials signed a wide-ranging memorandum of understanding that included measures to more than double bilateral trade and boost Iraq"s electricity production, which only meets around 60 percent of its peak demand during the hot summer months. The head of the delegation said Russia was ready to sell Sukhoi Superjet civil airliners to Iraq and keep providing it with military aid to fight Islamic State. Moscow has invested millions of dollars in Iraq"s energy sector.

Moscow and Baghdad are in talks on opening of a direct air line between Baghdad and Moscow and the abolition of visas for diplomats.

The US still has large influence in Iraq but it does not own it. The impressive performance of Russian weapons in Syria makes them in high demand among the countries facing the terrorist threat. The tank deal between Russia and Iraq reflects the trend. It also serves as an example of Russia’s growing clout in the Middle East and North Africa.

Iraqi Prime Minister Declares Mosul "Liberated" From The Islamic State

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi arrived in Mosul on Sunday to announce the city’s “liberation” from the Islamic State, and to congratulate the Iraqi armed forces and people on their “victory” in the city after nearly nine months of urban warfare, and bringing an end to jihadist rule in the city, the WSJ reported. As a reminder, Mosul is where the Islamic State achieved its greatest military victory when it captured the city in just four days on June 29, 2014 and handed the Iraqi military a humiliating defeat, sending shock waves through the region. Subsequent looting of Mosul"s central bank provided the Islamic State with over $400 million in "seed funding" which the terrorist organization promptly put to bad use.

The Iraqi PMI was expected to make an official victory announcement in the northern city later Sunday, after U.S.-backed Iraqi forces waged more than eight months of battle to reclaim it.

Troops have in recent days been fighting to clear the final Islamic State-occupied pockets of Mosul’s dense Old City, on the western bank of the Tigris river.

Loaders and other heavy machinery cleared paths for Iraqi soldiers, who appeared at ease ahead of the recapture, despite bursts of gunfire nearby.

At the same time, the U.S.-led coalition said Sunday it had carried out two strikes near Mosul that destroyed 21 Islamic State fighting positions. Reporting on location, the WSJ adds that Humvees patrolling the area rolled over downed electrical lines "in a stark indication of the toll the siege has taken on Mosul’s infrastructure and the likely high cost of rebuilding the city and resuming basic services there."

The symbolic victory takes place three years after the Islamic State seized Mosul in a 2014 blitz that saw it capture one-third of Iraq’s territory, including the northern city. The battle for Mosul - by far the largest city to fall under the militants" control - left large areas in ruins, killed thousands of civilians and displaced nearly one million people.

"The commander in chief of the armed forces (Prime Minister) Haider al-Abadi arrived in the liberated city of Mosul and congratulated the heroic fighters and Iraqi people for the great victory," his office said in a statement.

As Reuters adds, Abadi met commanders in west Mosul who led the battle, but he has yet to issue a formal declaration that the entire city has been retaken for the group which is also known as ISIS. Still, French President Emmanuel Macron - whose country is part of the coalition that has conducted airstrikes and provided training and assistance to Iraqi forces on the battlefield, welcomed the defeat.

"Mosul liberated from ISIS: France pays homage to all those, who alongside our troops, contributed to this victory," Macron said on Twitter.

Mossoul libérée de Daech : hommage de la France à tous ceux, avec nos troupes, qui ont contribué à cette victoire.

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) July 9, 2017

The Islamic State lost its administrative grip over Mosul in October, when government forces pushed it from the eastern half of the city, and its ultimate defeat here was all but a foregone conclusion. In its final days, the terrorist group mustered only a couple hundred fighters, cornered on a tiny patch of territory on the western bank of the Tigris River.

Source: ISW

The loss of Mosul, while largely expected, is a major blow for ISIS, which is also losing ground in its operational base in the Syrian city of Raqqa, where it has planned global attacks.  Amusingly, ISIS had group vowed to "fight to the death" in Mosul, but Iraqi military spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Rasool told state TV that 30 militants had been killed attempting to flee by swimming across the River Tigris that bisects the city. Cornered in a shrinking area, the militants have resorted to sending women suicide bombers among the thousands of civilians who are emerging from the battlefield wounded, malnourished and fearful, Iraqi army officers said.

That said, the Islamic State is far from vanquished in Iraq and elsewhere in the region It still controls small swaths of Iraq and large stretches of neighboring Syria. Its members and followers, more dispersed than ever, are likely to pose a terrorist threat in Baghdad, the Middle East and beyond for years to come. As the WSJ adds, "Islamic State’s defeat in Mosul would be a major military, psychological and political blow for the ruthless Sunni Muslim militant group."

A full timeline of the "rise and spread", and now fall, of the Islamic State can be found here.

What happens next?

Aside from Mosul, across the border in Syria a battle is raging to dislodge IS from Raqqa, the second capital of its self-declared caliphate. Fighting will push down the Euphrates valley to Deir al-Zour, the jihadis’ last big urban stronghold.

But the fall of Mosul also exposes ethnic and sectarian fractures that have plagued Iraq for more than a decade.

The victory risks triggering new violence between Arabs and Kurds over disputed territories or between Sunnis and Shi’ites over claims to power, egged on by outside powers that have shaped Iraq’s future since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein’s Sunni minority-rule and brought the Iran-backed Shi’ite majority to power.

For Iraq, stunned by the blitz on Mosul by Islamic State in 2014 and the collapse of its army, victory could thus turn out to be as big a problem as defeat. The federal model devised under the Anglo-American occupation and built on a power-sharing agreement between Sunnis, Shi’ites and Kurds collapsed into ethno-sectarian carnage spawned by the al Qaeda precursors of Islamic State.

In the three years since the jihadis swept across the border from Syria where they had regrouped in the chaos of the rebellion against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s rule, IS was the rallying point uniting a fractured Iraq.

But now that the group faces military defeat, the unity that held Iraq together is starting to come apart.

Read more on the challenges faced by post-ISIS Iraq here.