Showing posts with label H. Show all posts
Showing posts with label H. Show all posts

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Watch Live: Navalny Arrested As Opposition Protests Sweep Russia

In a day of anti-corruption protests across Russia, thousands of people crowded into Moscow"s Pushkin Square on Sunday for an unsanctioned protest against the Russian government, part of a wave of demonstrations taking place throughout the country. For the Moscow demonstration, around 8,000 people took to the streets according to police. As the rally continued, police used loudspeakers to call on the protesters to disperse. A number of people were detained for disorderly conduct, among whom was the prominent leader of the anti-Putin opposition.


Alexei Navalny, the anti-corruption campaigner who is leading the opposition to President Vladimir Putin, was arrested while walking from a nearby subway station to the demonstration, according to Associated Press journalists at the scene.



Opposition figure Aleksey Navalny waves as he sits inside a police van after
after being detained during a rally in Moscow, Russia, March 26, 2017


Navalny and his Foundation for Fighting Corruption had called for the protests, which attracted crowds of hundreds or thousands in most sizeable Russian cities, from the Far East port of Vladivostok to the European heartland. The protests were the largest coordinated outpourings of dissatisfaction in Russia since the massive 2011-12 demonstrations that followed a fraud-tainted parliamentary election.


There were no immediate figures on the demonstration size in Moscow, but the one-hectare Pushkin Square was densely crowded as were sidewalks on the adjacent Tverskaya Street, suggesting that more than 10,000 people had showed up. Law enforcement say that somebody sprayed “irritant gas” in the square, but rejected reports that it was part of a police action.



Scuffles with police erupted sporadically and some demonstrators were arrested, including a gray-haired man whom police dragged along the pavement. "It"s scary, but if everyone is afraid, no one would come out onto the streets," said 19-year-old Yana Aksyonova, explaining why she attended.


According to AP, the protests Sunday focused on reports by Navalny"s group claiming that Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has amassed a collection of mansions, yachts and vineyards. The alleged luxuries include a house for raising ducks, so many placards in Sunday"s protests showed mocking images of yellow duck toys.


"People are unhappy with the fact that there"s been no investigation" of the corruption allegations, said Moscow protester Ivan Gronstein.


Protests, some sanctioned and others in violation of a municipal ban, also took place in other Russian cities on Sunday, including Novosibirsk, Barnaul, Tomsk, Krasnoyarsk, Khabarovsk, and Vladivostok.



In the Pacific port city of Vladivostok, police forcefully detained some demonstrators near the city"s railway terminal, in one case falling down a small grassy slope as they wrestled with a detainee.


In St. Petersburg, an unsanctioned opposition rally was held just next to another unconnected gathering of demonstrators who rallied for traditional values. Police estimated the number of participants in the opposition event at around 3,000 in St. Petersburg, and said that three individuals were facing administrative action for minor violations.



The rally in Novosibirsk, which was sanctioned by the local authorities after a court ordered them to overturn a ban, attracted around 1,500 people, according to the mayor’s office. At another sanctioned event in Tomsk, around 400 protesters showed up, according to local law enforcement.



In Vladivostok, 25 activists have been detained by police for trying to violate a ban on public gatherings. Police released those detained shortly afterwards. The usual procedure for such cases of detention (which is not an actual "arrest") is to identify the individuals for potential administrative action and then release them.



Some demonstrators showed up with their faces painted green, a reference to a recent attack on Navalny when an assailant threw a green antiseptic liquid onto his face.


It is unlikely that anti-Putin sentiment will sweep Russia, however. As recently as last Devember, the approval rating of the Russian President hit a near-record high reaching 86.8%. according to the Russian Center for Public Opinion Research (VTSIOM). The share of respondents who said that they trusted the president was at 62.1 percent, a slight rise from 61.3 percent a week ago, trending upwards from the 59.2 percent recorded in early December.


Live from Moscow:


Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Used Car Prices Crash Most Since 2008

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,


According to NADA Used Car Guide, wholesale prices on used vehicles are getting crushed. Let’s take a look at the details.


Used Car Prices Since 1995



Used Car Prices by Type of Vehicle






Used Market Update


In a reversal of what typically occurs in February, wholesale prices of used vehicles up to eight years old fell substantially last month, dropping 1.6% compared to January. The drop was counter to the 1% increase expected for the month and marked just the second time in the past 20 years prices fell in February (last years’ scant 0.2% being the other instance).



NADA Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index fell for the eighth straight month, declining 3.8% from January to 110.1. The drop was by far the worst recorded for any month since November 2008 as the result of a recession-related 5.6% tumble. February’s index figure was also 8% below February 2016’s 119.4 result and marked the index’s lowest level since September 2010.



Incentives Jump by 18.1%


Automakers grew incentive spending once again in February, making it the 23rd month in a row where spending was increased. On average, spending reached $3,594 per unit versus $3,043 per unit in February 2016 according to Autodata.



Among the U.S. Big Three, GM raised incentives by 27.4% in February to an average of $5,125 per unit. Spending at Ford Motor Company rose by 20.9% to $4,012 per unit, while FCA increased incentives by 10.6% to $4,365.



As for Import automakers, Toyota Motor Sales raised incentives by 7.9% in February, reaching an average of $2,267 per unit. American Honda grew incentives by 26.6% to $1,886, while Nissan North America increased spending by 20.1% to $4,080 for the month.



Inventory Falls to 74 Days


Compared to January, days’ supply fell by 11 days in February, landing at 74 days for the period. Looking back, February 2016 saw a supply of only 69 days according to Wards Auto.



GM’s supply reached 91 days over the month, due largely to Buick’s industry high 167-day inventory. Ford Motor Company’s supply fell to 78 days, while FCA’s inventory dropped to 83 days.



Toyota Motor Sales’ supply decreased to a lean 67 days, matching Nissan’s figure for 67 days for the month. Meanwhile, inventory for Honda fell to 74 days. Subaru’s 38 days of supply remained lowest in the industry.



As for luxury automakers, BMW’s inventory fell to 46 days, while Daimler inventory remained unchanged versus January at 44 days’ supply. Cadillac’s inventory of 107 days was the highest in the luxury sector, while Tesla’s two days was the lowest.



Desutche Bank is gravely concerned...





We’ve grown increasingly concerned about U.S. Used Vehicle Pricing down 7.7% yoy during February, per NADA. A decline in used prices has been widely anticipated given a significant increase in used vehicle supply (off-lease vehicles). But the magnitude of the recent drop was nonetheless surprising (February’s drop was largest recorded for any month since Nov. 2008). NADA cited a number of factors contributing to the drop, including an increase in late model auction supply from rental fleets, and delayed tax refunds. Used prices have a significant impact on New Vehicle demand/pricing through their effect on affordability (most new car purchases involve a trade-in).





New/Used Vehicle Pricing & Demand Relationship. Some consumers shift from New to Used when Used Vehicle prices become relatively more attractive, negatively impacting New Vehicle demand. Used price deterioration also has an impact on credit, as lenders watch loan loss severity (and frequency), and tighten when this stat. weakens (potentially creating a negative feedback loop). At a more macro level, used vehicle price weakness is also seen as an indicator of aggregate vehicle supply/demand imbalance in the economy–caused by new vehicles entering the parc significantly faster than the rate of scrappage and net new licensed driver growth. This situation should ultimately self-correct as new car sales come under pressure. That said, the biggest fear for investors is that Auto OEMs become incrementally more price aggressive to support New Vehicle sales. Historically, every 1% decline in Used Vehicle prices has corresponded with a 0.2% decline in New Vehicle prices.



Fundamentally Speaking


NADA partially blames late tax refunds for some of the declines in March.


While it’s true the IRS slowed claims for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) to combat fraud, late refunds in 2017 cannot possibly explain an eight-month trend.


Yet, based on tax refunds, NADA expects a rebound in used car prices in March.


With massive incentives on new vehicles, I say, let’s see. Regardless, it’s pretty clear that car sales are slowing, and it takes bigger and bigger incentives to push them out the door.


Recall that on March 7, GDPNow 1st Quarter Forecast Plunges to 1.3% Following Vehicle Sales and Factory Orders Reports.


Also recall that the FRBNY Nowcast did not take auto sales into consideration.


On March 15, I reported GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points – Why?


Is this all related to slow tax refunds? We will soon find out.

Sunday, January 15, 2017

The Clinton Foundation Is Shutting Down The Clinton Global Initiative

In a "mass layoff" event reported late last week by the Department of Labor, the Clinton Foundation announced it would lay off some 22 employees at the Clinton Global Initiative, which attained notoriety during the John Podesta leaks, when the various details of the fallout between between CGI head Doug Band and Chelsea Clinton were revealed; it also emerged that long-time Bill Clinton friend Band was soliciting donations for Clinton through his PR firm, Teneo in an sordid example of "pay for play" which most of the mainstream media refused to cover, especially after Band emailed Podesta "If this story gets out, we are screwed."


Filed as mandated by the Department of Labor"s Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification, or WARN notice, on January 12, the Clinton Foundation"s Veronika Shiroka advised the DOL that as part of a "Plant Layoff" it would layoff 22 workers on April 15, with reason for the dislocation stated as "Discontinuation of the Clinton Global Initiative." The layoffs are part of the Clinton plan put in motion ahead of the presidential election, to offset a storm of criticism regarding pay-to-play allegations during Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state.



As the Daily Caller notes, the layoffs were reportedly announced , ahead of Clinton’s stunning loss to President-elect Donald Trump. Many other employees had already begun looking for or accepting other jobs at that time, as it had become clear the future of the initiative was in doubt. It’s unclear how many of the once 200 strong staff might remain at the Clinton Foundation in some other capacity.


As a reminder, while the FBI has cleared Hillary Clinton of wrongdoing regarding her use of a private email server, a parallel probe into the Clinton Foundation regarding allegations of corruption is still ongoing.


The decision to sunset the Clinton Global Initiative reportedly set off a dispute within Clinton Foundation circles regarding the best way to handle the fallout from the allegations. Some complained the layoff process was “insensitively” handled, Politico reported, while others took issue with the optics of allowing anyone with the Clinton Global Initiative to stay on.


And while CGI is now officially being "discontinued", the same fate likely awaits the Clinton Foundation itself following news in the aftermath of Hillary Clinton"s loss to Trump that Australia has cut its donations to the foundation to $0, while the far more generous Norway likewise slashed its donations by 87% as the political cout of the "charitable" organization dried up and as the opportunity for any future "quid pro quo" is now effectively gone.

Thursday, January 5, 2017

The Coming Crackdown On Free Speech

Submitted by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,


It’s amazing what can happen in a week.


Before this publication went on hiatus last week, one of the last letters I wrote to you in 2016 was about the National Defense Authorization Act and its treasure trove of freedom-killing provisions.


Section 1287, for example, creates a new agency called the “Global Engagement Center”, aka Ministry of Truth.



It has one purpose: to combat fake news.


The Global Engagement Center will fund and train journalists around the world to push a never-ending flow of US propaganda and cripple any independent outlet that doesn’t conform to the official government narrative.


Sadly, this is not unusual.


Each year, Congress creates a new National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which is essentially the military budget for the following year.


But without fail, each year’s NDAA is crammed full of horrific provisions which either waste taxpayer funds on corrupt pet projects, or destroy Americans’ civil liberties.


You may remember the 2012 NDAA, for example, which President Obama signed into law on New Years Eve 2011.


That year’s NDAA contained a section authorizing the military detention of US citizens on US soil.


Now we’re getting the Ministry of Truth.


President Obama signed this year’s NDAA into law on Christmas Day, which means that the Global Engagement Center will be live and operational within six months.


Four days later on December 29th, he issued an executive order intended to punish the Russian government for manipulating the US election.


The order contains some incredibly vague language targeting anyone engaged in “cyber-related activities” that are “reasonably likely” to pose some threat, including “activities to undermine democratic processes or institutions”.


The order also threatens anyone who provides “goods or services” to those engaged in the aforementioned cyber-related activities.


Anyone deemed by the US government to fit those incredibly broad definitions can have their assets frozen instantly.


Now, the spirit of the order is to go after all the Russians and Chinese they think are complicit in hacking the US government and US corporations.


(Mr. Obama also expelled a multitude of Russian diplomats that the FBI suspects of being spies, raising the question of why these people were in the US to begin with.)


Yet such broad and vague language can easily be applied to ensnare just about anyone they want.


If you just happen to have sold a used mobile phone over Craigslist to someone who ends up being a hacker, you can be targeted under this order.


Same with anyone who uses the Internet (engages in “cyber-related activities”) to express strong anti-government opinions (“undermine democratic . . . institutions”).


Now, clearly that’s not the intention with this order.


But when enough time passes, rules and regulations have a strong tendency to be used in ways that dramatically diverge from their original intent.


Case in point: the US government has wrongfully seized billions of dollars worth of cash and property over the years through what’s known as Civil Asset Forfeiture.


Civil Asset Forfeiture is essentially a form of theft.


But it’s perfectly legal for local, state, and federal police agencies to steal from you because of technicalities that were written in laws passed decades ago.


For example, the Archaeological Resources Protection Act was passed in 1979 with the intention of helping to preserve historic sites.


Buried in the law is some vague language authorizing the recovery of any property that was stolen from historic sites.


Now, decades later, police agencies abuse the vague language from that law, as well as dozens of other laws, to give themselves the authority to seize your property.
Their theft of your property has nothing to do with protecting archaeological sites, but they still have the legal authority thanks to a 37-year old law.


So no matter how good the intentions behind a law or executive order, there’s always strong potential for nasty, unforeseen consequences down the road.


And between the NDAA’s Global Engagement Center and the President’s incredibly vague executive order, there’s some serious anti-free speech potential.


By the way, this is NOT just a US phenomenon.


Israel’s government is close to passing a bill that authorizes them to demand Facebook (and other social media platforms) to remove content that they deem threatening.


Germany’s government is talking about passing a similar bill to stop “fake news” during the election cycle, even suggesting that Facebook could be fined if it does not remove certain content within 24 hours of being told by the government to do so.


Yeah, clearly there’s a lot of garbage on the Internet.


Someone can write a post that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is running a child prostitution ring, and it gets retweeted by mindless automatons who believe everything they read.


But at the same time, there’s a lot of independent, boutique journalism out there, and many of these sites are being labeled “fake” because they don’t conform to the official government narrative.


After a terrible year for the status quo, between Brexit and the Trump election, politicians are clearly terrified of any dissent that threatens their position.


And now they’re putting together all the tools they need to stamp it out and keep you in line.


Do you have a Plan B?