In Major Disappointment, Merkel Wins German Election Despite Worst Result Since 1949; AfD Surges To Enter Parliament

The German polls have officially closed, and the first exit polls numbers come in, confirming the expected fourth victory for Angela Merkel"s CDU/CSU, however getting a unexpectedly low 32.5% of the vote, which according to Europe Elects was the worst result for Merkel"s CDU/CSU (EPP) since 1949. Merkel"s main challenger, the SPD, got 20%, also its worst result since Nazi era 1945; furthermore, the SPD has said it plans to enter the opposition, collapsing the current CDU/CSU-SPD "grand coalition." 

In other words, just like in the recent Franch elections, the German establishment was just trounced:

• Worst result for Merkel"s CDU/CSU since 1949
  


• Worst result for SPD Since 1945

Meanwhile, there was an unexpected surge for the newcomers: the dramatic (late) surge for the nationalist AfD party, which got a higher than expected 13.5% of the vote, has made it not only the third most popular German party but also the first far-right German party to enter the Bundestag in 60 years.

The first exit poll breakdown from ARD is as follows.

• CDU/CSU - 32.5%


• SPD - 20%


• AfD - 13.5%


• FDP - 10.5%


• Greens - 9.5%


• Left party - 9%

An exit poll from ZDF has a similar breakdown:

• CDU/CSU-EPP: 33.5%


• SPD-S&D: 21%


• AfD-ENF: 13%


• FDP-ALDE: 10%


• LINKE-LEFT: 9%


• GRÜNE-G/EFA: 9%

Even more troubling for the German establishment is that the far-right AfD was the second strongest party in former Eastern Germany:

Germany, ARD exit poll: Far-right #AfD (ENF) second strongest party in former Eastern Germany. #btw17 #Wahl17 pic.twitter.com/wXwzFlZ2Zp

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 24, 2017

According to the Exit Poll, the likely coalition options include CDU/CSU-SPD or CDU/CSU-FDP-GREENS. The various possibilites are shown below.

However, according to SPD"s Schwesig, the leadership is united on entering opposition, meaning a grand coalition is unlikely and the CDU may have to settle for a government with the FDP and the Greens, a so-called "Jamaica Coalition." 

* * *

Contrary to earlier reports of muted participation, Europe Elects predicted today"s turnout could be as high as 80 per cent, potentially the highest turnout of the past two decades.

Germany, turnout:

2005: 77.7%
2009: 70.8%
2013: 71.5%
2017: ~80% (prognosis)#btw17 #gehtwaehlen

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 24, 2017

Furthermore, as Europe Elects adds, today could mark the highest turnout in a key German state since 1988.  In Sachsen-Anhalt, as of  4pm, turnout today is around 56 per cent - quite a bit higher than in 2013, 2009, 2005 and 2002. Turnout is not quite as high as 1988 yet, when turnout was around 62 per cent at the same time.

Germany (Sachsen-Anhalt), turnout at different times of the day. Highest turnout since 1998 so far. #btw17 #gehtwaehlen pic.twitter.com/1CxVkjLQRS

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 24, 2017

Turnout is particularly significant in this election, as fewer CDU and SDP voters heading out to their booths means a larger vote share for the AfD.

German Election September 24: What Are The Coalition Possibilities?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Angela Merkel would like her CDU/CSU to have an outright majority. That does not look possible according to the latest German Election Opinion Polls.

Her second preferred choice, a coalition with FDP is not looking very likely either. Is another “Grand Coalition” in the works?

Coalition Math

• CDU + SDP (Black Red): Another “Grand Coalition” 61%


• CDU + FDP + Greens (Black Yellow Green dubbed “Jamaica”) 51.5%


• CDU + FDP (Black Yellow): 45%


• CDU + Greens (Black Green): 43.5%


• SPD + FDP + Greens (Red Yellow Green dubbed “traffic light”) 38.5%


• SPD + FDP + Greens + Die Linke (red red Green Yellow) 48.5

46% Still Undecided

As of August 23, Politico reported Almost Half of German Voters Undecided.

Forty-six percent of German voters do not know who to vote for in the September 24 parliamentary election, according to a poll published in Wednesday’s edition of newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine.

The newspaper said the share of undecided voters this close to an election was higher than at any point in the past 20 years. Yet at the same time, 45 percent of those surveyed believe the outcome of the election is already decided — the highest percentage since German reunification.

It takes 50% to form a government.

But all of the other parties will not form a government that includes Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the anti-immigration, eurosceptic. Merkel has also ruled out Die Linke.

Unless CDU/CSU plus FDP cannot top 50%, forming a government is likely to take months.

If AfD and Die Linke get a combined 25% of the vote or more, coalition possibilities shrink.

Almost anything can happen, including new elections, if SDP refuses to enter a coalition.