Showing posts with label Early/Mid 2016 statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Early/Mid 2016 statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

About Those Polls - Rigged Or Just Clueless?

Over the past couple of weeks, we have constantly pointed out that polling data was seemingly being manipulated to "manufacture" artificial leads for the mainstream media"s chosen candidate, Hillary Clinton.  By "oversampling" democrats and/or various minority groups, pollster after pollster kept rolling out predictions that seemed utterly ridiculous to us but were gobbled up by complicit media outlets.  Here is just a small sample of our headlines from the past couple of months:





"ABC/Wapo Effectively Admit To Poll Tampering As Hillary"s "Lead" Shrinks To 2-Points"



"How Reuters "Tweaked" Its Latest Poll (Again) To Show A Clinton Lead"



"Statisticians Warn Of "Systemic Mainstream Misinformation" In Poll Data"



"CNN Goes "Full Reuters" - Attempts To Rig VP Debate Poll With Too Many Dems In Sample"



"New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples""



Now, with the official results in, we can finally confirm that pollsters were either intentionally manipulating their data or were simply clueless about how to structure their sample pools.  Per Bloomberg, going into election night, only two polls, IBD/TIPP and USC Dornsife/LA Times, showed victories for Trump while all of the other major polling outlets showed a 3-4 point national lead for Hillary.  And, while Hillary may still scrape up a modest popular vote edge it will be no where near the 3-4% margin predicted by these polls.


Polls



But, as bad as the national polls were, the data from the swing state polls was even worse.  Heading into election night, pollsters predicted a 6.5 point advantage for Hillary in the state of Wisconsin even though it now looks like Trump will win the state by 1.3% or more.


WI



Same thing in Pennsylvania where Hillary was considered a 2-point favorite even though Trump will win the state by over a point.


PA



Meanwhile, in Michigan Hillary was considered a 3.4 point favorite though it looks like Trump will take that state as well.


MI



Finally, while pollsters capitulated and admitted that Trump was the likely victor in Ohio his actual 8.5-point win in the state eclipsed the 3.5-point average going into election night.


Ohio



So we leave it to you to decide:  "Rigged" or "Clueless".

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Pick-Your-Poll Poison - Mainstream Media Lying Right To The End

Demographic biases, "shy" Trump supporters, and "tweaks" have turned this election cycle"s poll trends into farce and propaganda. Once again, as the news gets worse by the hour for Hillary Clinton, The Burning Platform"s Jim Quinn notes that the mainstream media polls over the last few days have again reverted to Clinton with a comfortable lead.





Really?? She"s one email away from prison!



Her minions are talking.



The FBI is preparing to pounce.



But the Clinton News Network and the rest of the “in the bag for Hillary” press have the balls to publish polls showing her gaining ground.




The LA Times poll begs to differ.



It predicted Obama would win by over 3% in 2012 when the rest of the MSM polls had Romney winning.


As of a couple weeks ago this poll had Clinton in the lead. Things looked bleak after the audiotape. But, as of this morning it shows Trump with his biggest lead yet, 5.4%. That’s outside the margin of error.


He is picking up momentum as we approach the finish line. We’ll see who will be eating crow in in a few short days.


Source: The Burning Platform