Pew Research Center Says EU Muslim Population Could Triple By 2050

Over the past couple of years, Europe has experienced a record influx of asylum seekers fleeing conflicts in Syria and other predominantly Muslim countries. Not surprisingly, the massive wave of Muslim migrants has become a political hot topic, particularly in countries like Germany, U.K., France, Italy and Sweden which have taken in a combined total of nearly 3 million migrants over just the past couple of years.  Per the Pew Research Center (PRC):

Now, in an effort to quantify how this massive wave of immigration may transform Europe"s demographics over the next several decades, the PRC has released a study estimating how the size of Europe’s Muslim population may evolve depending on future levels of migration.

To start, PRC estimated that Muslims made up roughly 4.9% of Europe"s overall population at the end of 2016 with Bulgaria (11.1%), France (8.8%) and Sweden (8.1%) having the highest concentrations.

They then proceeded to analyze how those populations may evolve over the next ~30 years under various immigration scenarios with the highest migration estimates resulting in a tripling of Europe"s overall Muslim population.

The baseline for all three scenarios is the Muslim population in Europe (defined here as the 28 countries presently in the European Union, plus Norway and Switzerland) as of mid-2016, estimated at 25.8 million (4.9% of the overall population) – up from 19.5 million (3.8%) in 2010.

 

Even if all migration into Europe were to immediately and permanently stop – a “zero migration” scenario – the Muslim population of Europe still would be expected to rise from the current level of 4.9% to 7.4% by the year 2050. This is because Muslims are younger (by 13 years, on average) and have higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern.

 

A second, “medium” migration scenario assumes that all refugee flows will stop as of mid-2016 but that recent levels of “regular” migration to Europe will continue (i.e., migration of those who come for reasons other than seeking asylum; see note on terms below). Under these conditions, Muslims could reach 11.2% of Europe’s population in 2050.

 

Finally, a “high” migration scenario projects the record flow of refugees into Europe between 2014 and 2016 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition (i.e., mostly made up of Muslims) in addition to the typical annual flow of regular migrants. In this scenario, Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current share, but still considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe.

And here"s a more granular look at each country assuming a "zero migration scenario"...

..."medium migration scenario"...

and "high migration scenario."

Per the charts above, under the "high migration scenario," Finland"s Muslim population alone could increase by more than 5.5 times, while the UK could see an increase of 2.7 times and Sweden nearly 4x.

Of course, it"s probably not that big a deal...what could go wrong?

• Sweden Truck Terrorist Arrested; Bomb Found Inside Truck


• Swedish Cop Posts Epic Facebook Rant On Immigrant Crime; Ignites Nationwide Firestorm


• Swedish Police "Cannot Cope" With Huge Numbers Of Rapes Since Migrants Arrived


• U.S. Journalist Investigating "Migrant Crime" In Sweden Has To Leave Under "Police Escort" For His Own Safety


• Leaked Police Report Exposes 23 Muslim-Controlled "No Go Zones" In Sweden: Plagued With Violence, Sexual Assaults, & Gun Crimes


• Postal Service Suspended In Swedish "No-Go" Zone Because It"s "Not Safe"

Europe: Migrant Crisis Reaches Spain

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

• "The biggest migration movements are still ahead: Africa"s population will double in the next decades. A country like Egypt will grow to 100 million people, Nigeria to 400 million. In our digital age with the internet and mobile phones, everyone knows about our prosperity and lifestyle." — German Development Minister Gerd Müller.


• "Young people all have cellphones and they can see what"s happening in other parts of the world, and that acts as a magnet." — Michael Møller, Director of the United Nations office in Geneva.


• "If we do not manage to solve the central problems in African countries, ten, 20 or even 30 million immigrants will arrive in the European Union within the next ten years." — Antonio Tajani, President of the European Parliament.

Spain is on track to overtake Greece as the second-biggest gateway for migrants entering Europe by sea. The sudden surge in migration to Spain comes amid a crackdown on human smuggling along the Libya-Italy sea route, currently the main migrant point of entry to Europe.

The westward shift in migration routes from Greece and Italy implies that Spain, situated only ten miles from Africa by sea, may soon find itself at the center of Europe"s migration crisis.

More than 8,300 illegal migrants have reached Spanish shores during the first seven months of 2017 — three times as many as in all of 2016, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

You will find more statistics at Statista

Thousands more migrants have entered Spain by land, primarily at the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla on the north coast of Morocco, the European Union"s only land borders with Africa. Once there, migrants are housed in temporary shelters and then moved to the Spanish mainland, from where many continue on to other parts of Europe.

In all, some 12,000 migrants have arrived in Spain so far this year, compared to 13,246 for all of 2016. By comparison, 14,156 migrants have arrived in Greece so far in 2017.

Italy remains the main migrant gateway to Europe, with around 97,000 arrivals so far this year, compared to 181,436 for all of 2016. Italy has been the main point of entry to Europe since the EU-Turkey migrant deal, signed in March 2016, shut off the route from Turkey to Greece, at one time the preferred point of entry to Europe for migrants from Asia and the Middle East. Almost 600,000 migrants have arrived in Italy during the past four years.

Migrants wait to be rescued by crewmembers from the Migrant Offshore Aid Station (MOAS) Phoenix vessel on June 10, 2017 off Lampedusa, Italy. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

In May, Italy signed a deal with Libya, Chad and Niger to stem the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean through improved border controls. In July, Italy also reached a deal with France and Germany to tighten the regulation of charities operating boats in the Mediterranean and to increase funds to the Libyan coast guard.

Since then, the Libyan coast guard has prevented thousands of migrants from leaving the Libyan coast for Italy. The crackdown, however, has sent would-be migrants scrambling for an alternative route to cross the Mediterranean. This appears to explain the increase in migrants arriving in Spain.

On August 14, Frontex, the European Union"s border agency, reported that the number of African migrants arriving in Italy from Libya had dropped by more than half in July compared to the month before. During this period, the number of migrants arriving in Spain rose sharply.

Frontex said that 10,160 migrants had arrived in Italy by sea in July — 57% fewer than in June and the lowest level of arrivals for a July since 2014. According to Frontex, 2,300 migrants made it to Spain in July, more than four times as many as the year before. Most of the migrants arriving in Italy and Spain are believed to be economic migrants seeking a better life in Europe, not refugees fleeing war zones.

"The vast majority of migrants crossing to Italy from Libya come from Senegal, Gambia, Guinea and other west African countries," said Joel Millman, an IOM spokesman, in an interview with the Financial Times. "Given the crackdown on migration from Libya, it seems natural that many would forsake the dangerous dessert [sic] crossing to Libya and choose to cross from Morocco."

Julio Andrade, a city councilor in Málaga, a port city in southern Spain, called it "the balloon effect." In an interview with the Irish Times, he said: "If you squeeze one area, the air goes elsewhere. If there is a lot of police pressure and arrests of mafias around the Mediterranean routes via Greece and Italy, for example, then the mafias will look for other routes."

Spanish authorities have reported that there is a surge in African migrants attempting to cross the land border at Ceuta by scaling fences that are up to six meters (20 feet) tall and topped by razor wire. Spanish Interior Minister Juan Ignacio Zoido said there were 2,266 attempts to jump the perimeter at Ceuta during the first seven months of 2017, compared to a total of 3,472 attempts in all of 2016.

On August 7, more than 300 mostly sub-Saharan Africans ambushed Spanish and Moroccan security forces and stormed the border crossing at El Tarajal; 186 migrants made it onto Spanish territory. On August 8, more than a thousand migrants armed with spears and rocks attempted to breach the same crossing. On August 9, Spanish authorities closed the border for a week. On August 10, around 700 migrants stormed the border; 200 migrants were arrested.

Meanwhile, on August 9, a video showed a rubber boat carrying dozens of migrants arrive at a beach full of sunbathers in Cádiz. José Maraver, the head of a rescue center in nearby Tarifa, told the Telegraph that a second boat had landed on another beach in the area and that this scene was now a regular occurrence. "Every day there are boats, every day there is migration," he said. "The situation is getting very complicated."

Migrants are also using other means to reach Spain. On August 6, for example, four Moroccans reached the coast of Málaga on jet skis. During July and August, police intercepted at least two dozen migrants using jet skis to cross over to Spain. On August 10, police using motion detectors and thermal imaging sensors found 56 migrants, including 14 children, hiding inside trucks en route from Ceuta to the mainland ferry port in Algeciras.

In an August 9 editorial, Spain"s El País newspaper said that it was "obvious that migratory pressure has moved to the western Mediterranean and there is no indication that this situation will change in the near future." It added:

"The migratory pressure Spain has experienced during the past several weeks is an increase of such dimensions that it exceeds all measures of surveillance and control. The massive entry of sub-Saharan people across the border of Ceuta, whether by jumping the fence or crossing the El Tarajal border, reveals the enormous difficulties in stopping the entry of those fleeing war, famine or economic hardship....

"The management of migratory flows requires a strong European policy and sufficient economic resources. Spain cannot stand alone as the guardian of southern Europe."

German Development Minister Gerd Müller recently warned that Europe must prepare for the arrival of millions more migrants from Africa:

"The biggest migration movements are still ahead: Africa"s population will double in the next decades. A country like Egypt will grow to 100 million people, Nigeria to 400 million. In our digital age with the internet and mobile phones, everyone knows about our prosperity and lifestyle."

The director of the United Nations Office in Geneva, Michael Møller, has echoed those concerns:

"What we have been seeing is one of the biggest human migrations in history. And it"s just going to accelerate. Young people all have cellphones and they can see what"s happening in other parts of the world, and that acts as a magnet."

The President of the European Parliament, Antonio Tajani, said that in order to staunch the flow of migrants from Africa, the European Union would need to invest billions and develop a long-term strategy to stabilize the continent: "If we do not manage to solve the central problems in African countries, ten, 20 or even 30 million immigrants will arrive in the European Union within the next ten years."

Spanish Sunbathers Shocked As Raft Full Of Migrants Paddle Up And Run Ashore

Families at a popular Spanish beach were shocked yesterday when an inflatable raft carrying dozens of migrants from Northern Africa suddenly washed ashore.  As can be seen in the following onlooker"s video, the migrants fled the boat before it reached dry land and ran inland in an effort to evade authorities.

According to the Daily Mail, the migrants arrived in Cadiz in Southern Spain and managed to disperse before being captured by police.

Footage shows the migrants leaping out of a black inflatable dinghy and dashing across the sand on beaches at Cadiz in southern Spain, after crossing the Strait of Gibraltar.

Carlos Sanz, who shot the video while on vacation in Cadiz, said the group quickly vanished and police only arrived some time later.

Local newspaper Diario De Cadiz reported that many of those on board quickly changed their clothing to evade the police, who carried out searches to apprehend the suspected illegal migrants.  Many of the group were collected in vehicles after landing, according to the paper which could mean that those driving the vehicles could potentially face human trafficking charges if caught.

The incident comes as the International Organization for Migration warned on Thursday that Spain could overtake Greece this year in the number of migrants arriving by sea, using boats and even jet-skis.

According to the IOM"s latest figures, until August 6, close to 8,200 migrants had arrived in Spain so far this year.

That is more than triple the number who reached Spain at the same time last year, according to Joel Millman, a senior IOM spokesman, and already more than the total arrivals in 2016.

While the figure pales in comparison with arrivals in Italy - where more than 96,400 have landed so far this year - Spain is catching up with Greece where 11,713 have arrived by sea in the same timeframe.

"It"s possible that Spain will outperform Greece this year," Millman told AFP.

"If so, that"s a big change."

The southern shores of Spain are roughly 20 miles from the north African coast.

Number Of Potential Migrants Worldwide Tops 700 Million

Viruses, violent conflicts and a host of other regional calamities helped revive peoples’ desire to migrate permanently to another country between the years 2013 and 2016 as the number of potential migrants climbed to 710 million, according to a Gallup poll.

Globally, 14% of the world’s adults wish to migrate, with the highest rates seen in sub-Saharan Africa (30%) and areas of Europe outside the European Union (21%), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (18%), the Middle East and North Africa (19%), the European Union (20%), Commonwealth of Independent States (15%), Australia, New Zealand, Oceania (9%) and North America (10%).

The lowest rates were found in Asia, starting with South Asia (8%), East Asia (8%) and Southeast Asia (7%).

Regions that saw the largest increase were areas of Europe outside the EU, which rose by 6 percentage points, the Caribbean and Latin America, which climbed 5 percentage points, and the Middle East and North Africa.

While still not back to the 16% Gallup measured between 2007 and 2009, the desire to migrate has risen in several regions thanks to the slowing post-crisis economic recovery.

The Gallup poll revealed that in 31 countries throughout the world, at least three in 10 adults say they would move permanently if they could. These countries and areas are found in every region except Asia, Oceania and Northern America. At 62%, Sierra Leone had the highest rate of dissatisfaction with current circumstances, likely thanks to the 2014 ebola outbreak. Haiti and Albania tied for second at 56%, with Liberia coming in fourth at 54%.

The US continues to be the most desired destination for potential migrants, as it has been since Gallup started tracking desire to migrate a decade ago. One in five potential migrants name the US as their desired future residence, followed by Germany, Canada, the UK, France, Australia and Saudi Arabia.

While the number of potential migrants who’d prefer America hasn’t changed significantly from previous years, the number who’d prefer Germany has risen massively – from 28 million to 39 million, likely thanks to Chancellor Angela Merkel"s vow to take in refugees, a decision that led to a 50% rise in migrant crime.

Interestingly enough, the UK lost some of its appeal as a desired destination after Brexit, a decision that was largely based on stemming the tide of immigration to Britain. The poll showed that approximately 35 million potential migrants named the UK as their desired location, down from 43 million between 2010 and 2012.

The rise in the desire to migrate likely reflects the increasing unrest in some parts of the world, where war, famine, disaster and disease are plentiful. It’s possible that the US could lose some of its appeal because of Trump, Gallup said,though that seems unlikely; with about 147 million would-be migrants saying the US is their preferred destination, it holds the number-one spot by a considerable margin.