Pay-TV Companies Tank As Subscriber Losses Surge To Record Highs In 2017

As the broader markets casually melt-up to new record highs with each passing day, one small corner of the equity market is in full on meltdown mode: cable and satellite pay-tv providers.  Down anywhere from 3-10% on the week, investors in this space seem to be finally admitting that record subscriber losses, quarter after quarter, just may end up being a bad thing.

As Bloomberg points out this morning, pay-tv subscriber losses are expected to set a new record in 2017, surpassing the 1.7mm homes that "cut the cord" in 2016, as industry analyst Craig Moffet warns "it is becoming increasingly clear that the wheels are falling off..."

Barring a major fourth-quarter comeback, 2017 is on course to be the worst year for conventional pay-TV subscriber losses in history, surpassing last year’s 1.7 million, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That figure doesn’t include online services like DirecTV Now. Even including those digital plans, the five biggest TV providers are projected to have lost 469,000 customers in the third quarter.

AT&T sank 6.1 percent, the biggest one-day loss since November 2008. Dish, which also provides satellite service, declined 5.1 percent. Viacom dropped 2.5 percent while AMC Networks Inc. fell 6.8 percent after Guggenheim Securities LLC downgraded the two stocks to neutral from buy.

Dallas-based AT&T is pushing headlong into TV programming by acquiring HBO and CNN owner Time Warner Inc. in an $85.4 billion deal. Chief Executive Officer Randall Stephenson has argued that the acquisition will let AT&T create compelling video packages for mobile subscribers and provide valuable targeting information for advertisers.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that the wheels are falling off of satellite TV,” said Craig Moffett, an analyst at MoffettNathanson LLC, in a research note.

AT&T set off the selling panic earlier this week when they announced they would lose 390,000 pay-tv customers in 3Q 2017 alone.  As a reminder, AT&T purchased DirectTV for $48.5 billion just 3 years ago...something tells us shareholders might like a "do-over" on that colossal misallocation of capital.

AT&T, whose ownership of the DirecTV satellite service makes it the biggest U.S. pay-television provider, said late Wednesday it will report a third-quarter loss of 390,000 satellite and cable customers, echoing a similar warning weeks earlier from Comcast Corp. The same night, Viacom cautioned that its distribution deal with Charter Communications Inc., the second-biggest cable U.S. company, may lead to a blackout, potentially testing whether millions of viewers are willing to go without MTV and Nickelodeon.

Shares of both companies retreated Thursday, contributing to a broader selloff in the sector. The S&P 500 Media Index, which includes Comcast and ESPN owner Walt Disney Co., slid 2.3 percent to the lowest level since December.

Meanwhile, the bigger question that remains to be answered is whether cable providers will finally use this customer backlash to push back on content providers who have managed to force ridiculous annual price increases down the throats of American consumers for decades...Citi analyst Jason Bazinet seems to think so...

After decades of steadily increasing bills and ever-bigger packages of channels, the pay-TV ecosystem is in full-blown crisis mode. AT&T, Dish Network Inc. and others are offering cheaper, online-only versions of cable to lure customers back, but that means having to accept thinner profit margins.

“Those salad days of fat bundles, automatic carriage renewals and customary affiliate steps ups are long gone,” Citigroup Inc. analyst Jason Bazinet wrote in a note this week. “Today, every media and cable firm is jockeying for self-preservation. And we suspect the next chapter in this new era means Charter will drop -- or significantly curtail -- distribution of Viacom’s content.”

Of course, some of these content owners are making the decision to drop the cable bundle much easier all on their own...

Cord-Cutting Accelerates, Sends Shock Wave Across Traditional TV

By Stock Board Asset

According to eMarketer, digital video consumption is on the rise leading to a seismic shift in the industry. Traditional TV viewers are expected to shrink nearly 10% by 2021 with the expectation of a sharp decrease of total media ad spending upwards of -30% reduction. Even in 2017, the trend is accelerating with eMarketer expecting a slowdown in ad spending, after 2016 benefited from the Olympics and U.S. presidential election.

As eMarketer explains, traditional TV advertising is slowing even more than expected as viewers cut cable and transition to digital video platforms. The estimates for ‘cord-cutters’ is expected to explode this year through 2021. The timeframe provided could explain cable-apocalypse is here. Per eMarketer,

In fact, by 2021, the number of cord-cutters will nearly equal the number of people who have never had pay TV (“cord-nevers”).

This year, there will be 22.2 million cord-cutters ages 18 and older, a figure up 33.2% over 2016. The overall tally is much higher than the 15.4 million eMarketer previously predicted. Meanwhile, the number of US adult cord-nevers will grow 5.8% this year to 34.4 million.

“Younger audiences continue to switch to either exclusively watching Over-The-Top video or watching them in combination with free TV options,” said Chris Bendtsen, senior forecasting analyst at eMarketer. “Last year, even the Olympics and presidential elections could not prevent younger audiences from abandoning pay TV.”

The hemorrhaging of traditional TV viewers will only accelerate. Overall, there are 196.3 million Americans that watch traditional TV, down 2.4% over 2016. By 2021, Emarketer thinks the total will fall nearly 10% compared to five years earlier. TV views over the age of 55 will continue to watch conventional TV, because that is tradition in their generation. The cord-cutting revolution is mainly impacting younger generations, as the old system is dismantled and the new system is ushered in.

Who are these disrupting digital streaming video services?

Back in August, WPP, the world’s largest advertising company cut full-year revenue forecasts and offered “terrible guidance”, which sent shares lower -13%.  Goldman Sachs reports:

• Results confirm weak trends seen across advertising companies/TV, with ad spending cuts in fast-moving consumer goods being the common driver


• Key question whether pick-up in organic growth from 2H is credible


• Goldman sees new organic growth guidance as “achievable,” based on comments by several consumer goods companies on higher ad spending in 2H, easier comparables, recent improvement in WPP’s new business performance

Paul Verna, a principle analyst at eMarketer listed several factors in the acceleration of cord-cutting trend:

• First, traditional pay TV operators are increasingly developing streaming platforms, such as Dish Network’s Sling TV.


• Second, networks such as HBO and ESPN have launched standalone subscription services that allow users to tap those channels without a cable subscription.


• Third, digital players like Hulu and YouTube are now delivering live TV channels over the internet at reasonable prices—including sports properties that were previously available only through traditional distribution.”

Average time spent per day with video by US Adults, by device, 2015-2017

While the end of legacy cable may not be here, it is approaching. America is currently in a transitional period and is increasingly gravitating to the cheapest possible option away from cable, and unless cable providers drastically change their cost structure and pivot their business models, the revolution in America"s viewership habits will be televized for all to see.