Congress Relying On Debunked "Guilt By Association" Online Tool To Track "Russian Influence"

As we previously warned, the latest McCarthyite scam called "Hamilton 68" is increasingly serving as a go-to source for major media outlets and more disturbingly, now even members of Congress. This week Republican Senator James Lankford (Oklahoma) added another layer to the seemingly endless "Russiagate" conspiracies - he claimed Wednesday during a hearing on threats faced by the US that Russia is using the NFL anthem kneeling controversy to drive a wedge through the American populace.

Lankford, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, made the bizarre claim that, "We watched, even this weekend, the Russians and their troll farms, their internet folks, start hashtagging out #TakeAKnee and also hashtagging out #BoycottNFL,” during a hearing on threats faced by the United States. Lankford, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, explained further that, "They were taking both sides of the argument this weekend... to try to raise the noise level of America and make a big issue seem like an even bigger issue as they are trying to push divisiveness in this country."

Sen. James Lankford (R-OK). Image source: C-Span

Representative Adam Schiff of California, a Democrat, has also been a leading congressional voice demanding investigations into supposed Russian social media manipulation and election meddling. Stories in Reuters and the New York Times this week which uncritically amplified the claims, referenced the Hamilton 68 online platform as a key source of information for congressional investigators. Reuters described the online tool as:

A website built by researchers working with the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a bipartisan, transatlantic project to counter Russian disinformation, showed tweets promoting both sides of the football debate from 600 accounts that analysts identified as users who spread Russian propaganda on Twitter. A Senate aide said the website was viewed as credible among congressional investigators.

But a cursory glance at Hamilton68 - which is mostly funded by the US and NATO states (Bill Kristol is on the project"s board, need we say more?) - reveals that both its list of "600 accounts" and methodology for determining these accounts as purveyors of "Russian disinformation" are largely hidden from public view. As we concluded when we initially profiled the platform and the organization behind it, the online tool is lacking in any semblance of scientific data-driven analysis, and its conclusions are thus meaningless. It exists to give gullible audiences the illusion that a data analysis driven tech tool produced via a "bipartisan" think tank has meticulously and objectively proven the "there"s a Russia connection lurking behind every corner" conspiracy theory.

Unless I am reading this wrong, it shows Russians bought ads to try and help Democrat causes? ???? ????????‍?? pic.twitter.com/6f8TLzKaa7

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) September 27, 2017

But the senselessness of Senator Lankford"s shrill and bizarro assertions hardly needs much comment: he"s essentially claiming that nefarious Russian-backed social media accounts promoted two contrary positions at a moment when much of the American populace itself was doing the exact same thing through millions of tweets, Facebook posts, and online message boards. As Mark Zuckerburg pointed out this week in what was surely a disappointing moment of truth for promoters of Russiagate conspiracies in general, "campaigns spent hundreds of millions advertising online" which was "1000x more than any problematic ads we"ve found."

It"s important to remember that Hamilton 68 dashboard"s "monitoring" of content primarily features what it calls "second tier Russian propaganda". As we previously reported this involves the following:

It tracks and stores information about others who have no connection to Russia but who "on their own initiative reliably repeat and amplify Russian themes." This is what the German Marshall Fund calls a "network" of second tier disinformation distributors.

If an article, tweet, or headline is trending among "Russian influence" accounts - which in this case means Alliance for Securing Democracy"s secret list of 600 twitter accounts - the trending URL appears on the dashboard"s front page. Essentially this is simple guilt by association, as we described:

What does this "network" of people with no connection to Russia but who amplify Russian "themes" do?

It "reflects Russian messaging priorities, but that does not mean every name or link you see on the dashboard is pro-Russian. The network sometimes amplifies stories that Russia likes, or people with like-minded views but no formal connection to Russia."

So, according to the self-proclaimed alliance for securing democracy you might not even know it when you are pushing Russian state propaganda!

So if even if stories from mainstream or establishment news organizations like The Washington Post, Bloomberg, or Reuters happen to be tweeted frequently by "Russian influence accounts" these mainstream sites appear on Hamilton 68"s dashboard. Again, given that originating account identities are not revealed, the information is meaningless - it"s but a mere reflection of what happens to be trending all over social media at any given moment.

Indeed below is an example of sites the tool was tracking within the first week Hamilton 68 was launched at the beginning of August. The below dashboard pane is accompanied with the descriptor: "Top websites tweeted by a monitored set of accounts related to Russian influence campaigns." Both Bloomberg and The Washington Times and other mainstream and long established outlets appear somewhat regularly on this dashboard which claims to identify Russian meddling.

Alliance for Securing Democracy"s online tracking tool reads: "Top websites tweeted by a monitored set of accounts related to Russian influence campaigns." 

But the dashboard more often targets hugely popular independent news sites like Robert Parry"s Consortium News, The Federalist, Breitbart, and WikiLeaks. As The New York Times mentions, "Of 80 news stories promoted last week by those accounts, more than 25 percent "had a primary theme of anti-Americanism"". It is impossible to know what, according to the site"s designers, "anti-Americanism" means, but it no doubt involves articles which are critical of US foreign policy. This means that if a Washington Post or Reuters article, for example, highlights "staggering" Iraqi civilian deaths under US coalition bombings, that article would likely register as "anti-American" by the platform and its creators. By such methods, the Washington Post, Reuters, and numerous independent sites are brought under suspicion alongside RT News and Sputnik. But "anti-American" could also simply mean any article produced by a site that Hamilton 68"s creators don"t like. Again, the data is meaningless. 

Indeed, on Thursday both The Intercept and Antiwar.com were top trending sites on the Hamilton"s 68 dashboard. Ironically, The Intercept has take various editorial positions concerning Russian hacking allegations, and last June published a rather sensational headline, Top-Secret NSA Report Details Russian Hacking Effort Days Before 2016 Election, which ended up making only a small splash, but landed NSA leaker Reality Winner in jail.

Thursday"s (9/28) list of Top Trending Domains advanced by what Hamilton 68 identifies as Russian backed social media accounts. Antiwar News and The Intercept were trending.

Antiwar.com was founded as far back as 1995 for the purpose of opposing American militarism and interventionism. It was one of the early and consistent few news and activist sites which opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Starting in 2011 it came under FBI investigation after what the FBI admitted was a "mistake". The site"s founders, who were also personally under FBI monitoring for their "anti-war views", estimate that they had lost at least $75,000 per year after donors pulled their support while citing fears that the FBI might monitor them too. Antiwar was forced to sue in federal court just to clear its name and reputation, and yet the damage is long lasting and not fully quantifiable.

Similarly, as Hamilton 68"s methodology is based entirely on guilt by association, it could potentially do some real damage to the independent sites it targets. This is an increased possibility given that highly visible outlets like the New York Times, Reuters, and NPR are now citing it. And this is precisely what it aims to do: silence dissenting voices and independent thought. But like the first round of McCarthyite hysteria, this too shall hopefully pass, and history will not look kindly on those engaged in this shrill and absurd witch hunt which doesn"t appear to be relenting anytime soon.

Russia Sanctions And The Coming Crackdown On Americans

Authored by Daniel McAdams via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

Last week I wrote an article and did an interview explaining that in my reading of the new Russia sanctions bill just signed by President Trump, there is a measure opening the door to a US government crackdown on some of the non-mainstream media. In particular, Section 221 of the "Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act" would punish "persons" who are "engaging in transactions with the intelligence or defense sectors of the Government of the Russian Federation."

At first one might think this is reading too much into the text, however as a twelve year Capitol Hill veteran bill-reader I can assure you that these bills are never written in a simple, expository manner. There is always a subtext, and in this case we must consider the numerous instances where the Director of Central Intelligence and other senior leadership in the US intelligence community have attempted to establish the idea that foreign news channels such as RT or Sputnik News are not First Amendment protected press, but rather tools of a foreign intelligence organization.

You can see in the current atmosphere, where anti-Russia hysteria has spread like typhoid, how readily-accepted such a notion would be by many. The reds are under our beds and the Russkies have taken over our airwaves.

I don"t think the crackdown will stop at Russian government funded news organizations like RT and Sputnik, however. Once the initial strike is made at the lowest hanging fruit, the second wave will target Russia-focused organizations not funded by governments but that challenge the official US government line that Russia is our number one enemy and its government must be overthrown. Popular private alternative websites like The Duran and Russia Insider will likely be next on the list for prosecution.

Sound farfetched? Think of it this way (I can assure you the neocons do): if the Russian government and RT are opposed to sanctions and you operate a website that also takes a line in opposition to Russia sanctions are you not doing the work of Russian intelligence? Are you not seeking to influence your readers in a manner that Russian intelligence would want? Are you not "engaging in transactions" even over the airwaves?

And after this second wave you can be sure there will be a push to move on other alternative media that has nothing to do with Russia but that opposes US interventionist foreign policy: ZeroHedge, Lew Rockwell, Ron Paul Institute, ConsortiumNews, etc.

Crazy, you say? Don"t forget: this war against us already started last year when the Washington Post ran a front page article accusing all of the above of being Russian agents!

What would be next? Do you read any of these alternative news sites? Do you pass along articles that oppose US sanctions policy toward Russia? You are engaging in transactions. You will be subject to "sanctions" as described in the "Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act," which is now the law of the land.

This would never happen, you might say. The government would never compile, analyze, and target private news outlets just because they deviate from the official neocon Washington line.

Perhaps not yet. But some US government funded "non-governmental" organizations are already doing just that.

The German Marshall Fund has less to do with Germany these days than it did when founded after WWII as a show of appreciation for the US Marshall Fund. These days it"s mostly funded by the US government, allied governments (especially in the Russia-hating Baltics), neocon grant-making foundations, and the military-industrial complex. Through its strangely Soviet-sounding "Alliance for Securing Democracy" project it has launched something called "Hamilton 68: A New Tool to Track Russian Disinformation on Twitter."

This project monitors 600 Twitter accounts that the German Marshall Fund claims are "accounts that are involved in promoting Russian influence and disinformation goals." Which accounts does this monitor? It won"t tell us. How does it choose which ones to monitor? It won"t tell us. To what end? Frighteningly, it won"t tell us.

How ironic that something called the German Marshall Fund is bringing Stasi-like tactics to silence alternative media and opinions in the United States!

So what does the "Hamilton 68" project do? In its own words it firstly "shows tweets from official Russian propaganda outlets in English, and a short post discussing the themes of the day. This is Russia’s overt messaging."

But it goes further than that. It tracks and stores information about others who have no connection to Russia but who "on their own initiative reliably repeat and amplify Russian themes." This is what the German Marshall Fund calls a "network" of second tier disinformation distributors.

What does this "network" of people with no connection to Russia but who amplify Russian "themes" do?

It "reflects Russian messaging priorities, but that does not mean every name or link you see on the dashboard is pro-Russian. The network sometimes amplifies stories that Russia likes, or people with like-minded views but no formal connection to Russia."

So, according to the self-proclaimed alliance for securing democracy you might not even know it when you are pushing Russian state propaganda!

Do you see what they are doing here? They are using US and other government money in an effort to eliminate any news organization or individual who deviates from the official neocon foreign policy line on Russia, Syria, Ukraine, etc. They are trying to eliminate any information that challenges the neocon line. To criminalize it.

In fact they admit that they are seeking to silence alternative viewpoints:

Our objective in providing this dashboard is to help ordinary people, journalists, and other analysts identify Russian messaging themes and detect active disinformation or attack campaigns as soon as they begin. Exposing these messages will make information consumers more resilient and reduce the effectiveness of Russia’s attempts to influence Americans’ thinking, and deter this activity in the future by making it less effective.

The very Soviet-sounding "Alliance for Securing Democracy" project description ends with a suitably authoritarian warning, ripped from the pages of 1984, Darkness at Noon, or Erich Honecker"s "how-to" guide:

We are not telling you what to think, but we believe you should know when someone is trying to manipulate you. What you do with that information is up to you.

Chilling, no? And much of it is being done with your money by your government and in your name.

That is why the neocons and their myriad think tanks (government-funded in many cases) would like nothing more than to shut down our upcoming Peace and Prosperity 2017 Conference, to be held right at their front door! They cannot stand an open debate about Washington"s hyper-interventionist foreign policy. They don"t want to talk about all their failed wars -- and they really don"t want to talk about the wars they have planned and are pushing.

We are not the anti-Americans. They are. They hate the First Amendment. They hate debate. They hate us.

Trump Hopes To Quietly Steal Russia's Natgas Dominance Over Europe

One month ago, after the shocking collapse of the Gulf nation status quo with the announcement of the diplomatic, naval and financial blockade of Qatar by the Saudi alliance, we said that while it is unclear how this latest political fiasco plays out, one thing was certain: with Saudi Arabia and Qatar suddenly adversaries, any likelihood of a Qatari natural gas pipeline crossing Syria - the fundamental cause behind the Qatar proxy war in the first place - was gone.

But one key question remained: why would Europe vacate all hopes of an alternative provider of cheap, copious LNG and concede the role of quasi-monopolist supplier of this critical for Europe resource to Gazprom, and thus Russia whose leverage over the continent would only grow as a result.

We now have the answer: none other than Donald Trump has been hoping to "steal" Russia"s European natgas relationships and clients, in hopes of making the US become the dominant supplier of LNG to Europe. According to Reuters, Trump "will use fast-growing supplies of U.S. natural gas as a political tool when he meets in Warsaw on Thursday with leaders of a dozen countries that are captive to Russia for their energy needs."

The love-but-mostly-hate relationship between Russia and Europe is familiar to regular readers: in recent years, Moscow has cut off gas shipments during pricing disputes with neighboring countries in winter months, or when the conflict with Ukraine resulted in a halt of transit shipments via the energy hub.

This is where Trump"s plan kicks in: exports from the United States would help reduce their dependence on Russia. Trump will tell the group of European nations that Washington wants to help allies by making it as easy as possible for U.S. companies to ship more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to central and eastern Europe, the White House said. Trump will attend the "Three Seas" summit - so named because several of its members surround the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Seas - before the Group of 20 leading economies meet in Germany, where he is slated to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time.

Among the aims of the Three Seas project is to expand regional energy infrastructure, including LNG import terminals and gas pipelines: in other words to replace Gazprom as the dominant supplier of European nat gas with US suppliers. Members of the initiative include Poland, Austria, Hungary and Russia"s neighbors Latvia and Estonia. According to James Jones, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Trump"s presence will give the project a lift.

While it goes without saying, Jones adds that "Increased U.S. gas exports to the region would help weaken the impact of Russia using energy as a weapon or bargaining chip."

"I think the United States can show itself as a benevolent country by exporting energy and by helping countries that don’t have adequate supplies become more self-sufficient and less dependent and less threatened," he said.  It will also, if successful, infuriate Putin and the Russian energy establishment.

Meanwhile, Trump"s Russia policy is still taking shape, a process made awkward by investigations into intelligence findings that Russia tried to meddle in the 2016 U.S. presidential race. Russia denies the allegations and Trump says his team did not collude with Moscow. One thing that Trump has made clear during his campaign is that he wants to pursue ways to de-escalate tensions with Russia, however it is the deep state that prevents any such overture with yet another barrage of "Russian conspiracy" news hitting the WaPo, CNN or NYT.

And while Trump may not even realize the long-term implications of the "Three Seas" project, all those around him understand all too well: with Putin having made a Qatar gas pipeline though Syria impossible, it is up to the US to step in and replace Gazprom as Europe"s nat gas provide.

Which is also why many Republican lawmakers, many of whom want to see him take a hard line on Russia because of its interference in the election and in crises in Ukraine and Syria, support using gas exports for political leverage. "It undermines the strategies of Putin and other strong men who are trying to use the light switch as an element of strategic offense," said Senator Cory Gardner, a Republican from Colorado who is on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The Kremlin relies on oil and gas revenue to finance the state budget, so taking market share would hurt Moscow.

"In many ways, the LNG exports by the U.S. is the most threatening U.S. policy to Russia," said Michal Baranowski, director of the Warsaw office of think-tank the German Marshall Fund. He is absolutely correct, and yet the question becomes: if Putin was ready to deploy thousands of soldiers and dozens of warplanes in Syria to defend Russia"s gas export market, what woud - or could - he do, if the US itself is hoping to replace Russia as Europe"s dominant source of energy.

* * *

To be sure, taking over Russia"s nat gas trade ties with European nations would be a slam dunk for the US, which is expected to become the world"s third-largest exporter of LNG in 2020, just four years after starting up its first export terminal. U.S. exporters have sold most of that gas in long-term contracts, but there are still some volumes on offer, and more export projects on the drawing board.

And if there is one thing US LNG exporters want more than anything, it is a virtually unlimited export market. Such as Europe.

Cheniere Energy which opened the first U.S. LNG export terminal in 2016, delivered its first cargo to Poland in June. Five more terminals are expected to be online by 2020. Tellurian has proposed a project with a price tag of as much as $16 billion that it hopes to complete by 2022, in time to compete for long-term contracts to supply Poland that expire the same year and are held by Russian gas giant Gazprom. "We would like to be a supplier that competes for that market," Tellurian Chief Executive Meg Gentle told Reuters.

There are other problems as well: a global glut in supply may, however, limit U.S. LNG export growth, regardless of Trump"s support. The glut has depressed prices and made it difficult for LNG exporters to turn a profit, said Adam Sieminski, an energy analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  Russia has the advantage in Europe due to its proximity and pipeline connections, however it is only a matter of time before technological advances make US LNG production price competitive: just ask OPEC.

"Europe is going to be the great competitive arena between Russian gas and LNG," said Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian and vice-chairman with IHS Markit analysis firm.

* * *

For now, Europeans will be watching to see whether Trump clarifies his administration"s position on a new notorious pipeline to pump Russian gas to Germany, known as Nord Stream 2.

As we reported several weeks ago, the U.S. Senate passed a package of sanctions on Russia, including provisions to penalize Western firms involved in the pipeline. This prompted a furious response from close European allies such as Germany, France and Austria. However, should Trump assure Europe that American nat gas is competitive with Russia"s, we expect European leaders would quickly change their mind,

Once again, it should come as no surprise that the U.S. State Department has already lobbied against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as a potential supply chokepoint that would make Europe more vulnerable to disruptions. What it really means is that if left unchecked, Nord Stream 2 would make Europe even more reliant on Moscow"s good will. 

Meanwhile, as Reuters reports, the threat of sanctions adds to tensions between Washington and Berlin. Germany"s government supports the pipeline, and Trump"s position on it is a concern for European diplomats.

While it is soon to say if Trump will be successful in stealing Russia"s European LNG business, the mere attempt will be seen by the Kremlin as an unmistakable aggression against it by the Trump admin, or those who are pulling the strings behind the scenes on the Three Seas project. And the fact that this takes place on the same day when China"s patience with Trump finally ended, and Xi warned that Trump"s actions since their Mar-A-Logo meeting have resulted in "negative factors" for the US-China relationship, will certainly have drastic consequences for the global balance of power and status quo, as Russia and China are drawn even closer politically to prevent the US from replacing Russia"s energy dominance, leaving Moscow with a fraction of its leverage over central Europe.

But the most interesting deliverable next will be what Putin"s reaction will be: should GazProm and various other Russian nat gas lose access to the European market, the consequence to the Kremlin would be far more dire than even the breakout of a small, regional, hard water. Finally, if Putin finds that no diplomatic recourse is left to preserve Russian supremacy, will the former KGB spy find a way to esalate?