Russia Establishes Two Permanent Bases In Syria To Host Nuclear Warships And Warplanes

Russia"s defense ministry has announced it is now in the process of establishing two permanent military bases in war-torn Syria after President Putin authorized prior deals with the Syrian government to move forward. Though Russia maintains merely up to ten military bases on foreign soil, the installations in Tartus and Khmeimim will be the most strategically located, allowing for a growing and permanent Russian presence on the Mediterranean, something which has already raised eyebrows in the West.

Though Putin formally announced the planned withdrawal of Russian forces from active operations in Syria in early December, there were parallel plans going back to at least early summer to maintain a smaller permanent presence based on an agreement with the Damascus government to host Russian forces for at least 49 more years, which includes the option of being prolonged further. Personnel and military hardware will be stationed at permanent Russian bases in Tartus and Khmeimim - both of which are on or near the Mediterranean. 

Satellite image of Russia"s facility at Tartus Navy docks. Left: (Source: WikiMapia); Right: (Source: GoogleMaps)

According to Russian media reports, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated at a ministry meeting on Tuesday, “We have started the process of formation of our permanent forces [in Syria]." Though Tartus has operated as a Russian naval port since 1971 (referred to as a Material-Technical Support Point and not a "base") and was until recently minimally staffed mostly by civilian contractors, it will reportedly undergo a massive transformation and expansion, which is to include the capability of hosting nuclear-powered ships.  

Notably, though mainstream media is currently reporting the permanent Russian military presence as something "new" and dangerous in terms of an enduring Russian footprint in the Middle East, the Russian military relationship with Baathist Syria goes back decades into the Soveit era with the Tartus facility having been long key to Russian naval movements in the Mediterranean. 

According a summary of the planned expansion in RT News:

Under the agreement with Syria, the future base would be allowed to host up to 11 Russian warships, including those with a nuclear power plant. At the moment there is only one Russian nuclear-propelled military surface ship, the 24,000-ton battlecruiser ‘Pyotr Velikiy’, although Russia will soon have a nuclear icebreaker – albeit which is unlikely to be given a mission in the Mediterranean – while a brand new Lider-class destroyer project is at the design stage.

Khmeimim is located near Latakia - the major northwest Syrian city on the Mediterranean, and was built adjacent to the civilian Bassel Al-Assad International Airport to serve as "the strategic center of Russia"s military operation against Islamic State." It has primarily served as an airbase and prime troop logistical support location out of which Russian sorties have been flown since 2015, which ultimately served to overwhelmingly shift the momentum of the war in favor of the Assad government, which has now taken about 90% of all territory formerly held by terrorists, though the future of the country"s northeast - held by the Kurdish dominated and US-backed SDF remains to be seen.

Deployed Russian forces, via Lancashire News

Meanwhile as plans for the permanent bases have been confirmed, Russia says that the bulk of its forces in Syria have already been reduced, though this is currently being contested by both the Pentagon and Syrian opposition groups, who say Russian airstrikes and operations have actually been on the increase of late. On Wednesday the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that over 48,000 Russian military personnel were deployed to Syria between 2015 and 2017, and that at least half of this number have been withdrawn after Vladimir Putin’s visit to the Khmeimim Military Airport earlier this month. And according to a previous statement from the Russian MoD, their forces claimed to help eliminate more than 62,000 militants during their two years inside the country.

However, the Pentagon remains predictably skeptical of Russian effectiveness against ISIS and other terrorists, with the US recently claiming that it alone is responsible for the defeat of the terror group, which resulted in Moscow pushing back against such claims. Washington hawks are likely to argue that Russian permanent bases in Syria are justification enough for the Pentagon to perpetually maintain its own more than dozen small military bases in the country"s north and northeast. 

At the same time from the Russian perspective, American policy as well as that of major regional US allies like Israel have been aggressive and erratic, and appear to still include regime change as a long-term policy goal in Syria. An equally long-term Russian military presence will allow Moscow to immediately deploy or build-up its forces in Syria should Damascus come under direct threat from external countries at any point in the near or distant future.

Syria Demands "Immediate, Unconditional Withdrawal" Of "Terror Supporting" Turkey From Its Territory

The Syrian government has issued a strong condemnation of Turkey"s recent military incursion into northern Syria, demanding "immediate and unconditional withdrawal" according to Syrian state media citing the foreign ministry. Though Turkey claims to be acting in accordance with the Astana agreement reached by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, Damascus is now calling the move a departure from the deal and an intentional violation of Syrian sovereignty, while further accusing Turkey of collaborating with al-Qaeda terrorists on the ground in pursuance of an expansionist policy. 

On Thursday a large Turkish army convoy consisting of more than 100 Turkish soldiers, including special forces and commandos, along with at least 30 armored trucks entered Syria’s Idlib region for a joint mission ostensibly to monitor a local de-escalation zone and "to pacify al-Qaeda linked militants" there, according to official Turkish statements.

Many analysts, however, predict that Turkey will not directly confront al-Qaeda, but instead will either allow the terror group to secure an exit or will recognize it under a new form or identify while pretending it to be a local organization.

The Syrian foreign ministry said on Saturday, “The Syrian Arab Republic condemns in the strongest terms the incursion of Turkish military units in the Idlib Province, which constitutes to blatant aggression against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria and flagrant violation of international law.” According to SANA Syrian state news, the foreign ministry further noted that Turkey"s military entered Idlib province "accompanied by Jabhat a-Nusra terrorists which shows clearly the close relationship between Turkish regime and terrorist groups, a matter that the international community should pay more attention to and take firm stance in order to oblige Turkey to end its support to terrorism which managed to shed the blood of Syrian people and destabilize the region and the entire world."

Meanwhile, Russia has not formally responded to Damascus" condemnation, and it is unclear how the Syrian government"s declaration will be interpreted. Turkish government officials have consistently claimed complete cooperation and coordination between Turkey and Russia - though President Erdogan this week stressed that Turkey would implement its "own game plan, step by step" in Syria and that "we are not bounded by just resistance or defense."

Map source: Middle East Eye

Erdogan has also vowed to prevent the YPG (Syrian Kurdish "People"s Protection Units") from establishing what he called a "terror corridor" to the Mediterranean. Turkey has long sought a green light from Russia to attack YPG-held Afrin - a city close to the Turkish border which is part of the Kurdish declared Rojava autonomous zone - as part of a broader Turkish attempt to prevent such a Kurdish zone from gaining any permanence. And it appears we are now witnessing the beginning this strategy which Turkey clearly holds as its top priority far and above pacifying Idlib (after all, Turkey assisted al-Qaeda"s takeover of Idlib in the first place).

Both the Syrian Kurds and the Damascus government see Turkey"s real motives in Idlib as merely a land grab using both local proxies (including al-Qaeda) and direct troop occupation. Turkey hopes the deal reached in Astana, Kazakhstan to implement "safe zones" in the area will give Russian backing to its war on the Kurds, and Turkey"s first step which it began implementing this week is to ensure the YPG is contained. As a spokesman for the Turkish sponsored Free Syrian Army (FSA) told the Reuters this week, the Turkish deployment would "ensure the area is protected from Russian and regime bombing and to foil any attempt by the separatist YPG militias to illegally seize any territory."

In doing a deal with Turkey, it now appears Russia will walk a fine line between keeping a leash on Erdogan"s machinations and conducting legitimate anti-terror operations with its Syrian ally.