Sanctions, Rhetoric, and Possible Boarding of Vessels vs. North Korea

On Friday, 2/23/18, the Trump Administration announced the implementation of even stronger sanctions against North Korea to force it into compliance regarding its nuclear weapons. The New York Times reported on the revised sanctions, and here’s an excerpt:

The measures target 27 shipping companies and 28 vessels, registered in North Korea and six other countries, including China. The Treasury Department said the shipping firms are part of a sophisticated campaign to help North Korea evade United Nations sanctions restricting imports of refined fuel and exports of coal.       

President Trump later released the following statement to reporters during a joint news conference with the Prime Minister of Australia as reported by Reuters on Friday, 2/23/18:

“If the sanctions don’t work, we will have to go to phase two, and phase two may be a very rough thing, may be very, very unfortunate for the world.”

That doesn’t sound very positive… “very, very unfortunate for the world” seems to imply something big. Sounds as if it may mean war, and not to one limited between the U.S. and North Korea.

Two of the stated overall U.S. objectives regarding interception of ships by U.S. naval forces is to halt North Korea’s importation of fuel and their exportation of coal. Here’s a statement from a Newsweek article on Friday, 2/23 entitled John Bolton Blasts Trump’s New North Korea Sanctions as Worthless, that describes the planned actions:

“The measures target 27 shipping companies and 28 vessels, registered in North Korea and six other countries, including China,” The New York Times reported on Friday. “The Treasury Department said the shipping firms are part of a sophisticated campaign to help North Korea evade United Nations sanctions restricting imports of refined fuel and exports of coal.”

Well, before that “Phase 2” occurs, it may just need a tipping point…and that venue may have been found with the other proposition: that U.S. Coast Guard vessels may be used to search, and board ships suspected of carrying out trade with North Korea outside of the embargo. They will also search the vessels for any weapons or parts for weapons systems.

Yes, you read that correctly, the U.S. Coast Guard! As if they don’t have enough to deal with in U.S. waters with drug smuggling and illegal aliens, let alone to patrol our waters and protect from foreign naval vessels. Now they’re going to be pressed into service to police vessels in Asia. Here’s another excerpt as reported through Reuters and reprinted in Newsweek from Friday, 2/23 entitled North Korea Sanctions Evaders Beware: U.S. Planning Major High Seas Crackdown, that is “telling” if you study it clearly:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told reporters in Washington on Friday the United States does not rule out boarding ships for inspections. But U.S. officials said privately that such action, especially the use of boarding crews, would be decided on a case-by-case and with utmost caution. Some U.S. officials believe the risk could be minimized if Coast Guard cutters, which carry less firepower and technically engage in law-enforcement missions, are used in certain cases rather than warships.

The Coast Guard declined to address whether it might deploy ships to the Asia-Pacific region but acknowledged its ties to countries there. “Future ship deployments would depend on U.S. foreign policy objectives and the operational availability of our assets,” said spokesman Lieutenant Commander Dave French.

Mnuchin…a banker, and now involved in what amounts to a military operation, if the Coast Guard is even considered. Why would the U.S. Treasury Department be involved in any of this? Then that last “cowed” and perfectly-crafted, politically-correct statement by Lieutenant Commander French, showing that despite the Coast Guard’s mission to be used for the defense of our shores (WWII being an exception for foreign deployment, as we were in the fight for our existence), they will now potentially deploy in the Far East…when the Treasury Department jerks the leash.

Perhaps the Treasury Department will want to “impound” the cargo. It’s a state actor-entity confiscating the cargo, after all…certainly not piracy.

Undoubtedly the “criteria for the case-by-case basis” will be that the CG will board any vessel that will not resist, such as a fishing vessel: if they’re weaker, we’ll board them. The above statement even mentions that the U.S. doesn’t want to use a warship: we’ll go in potentially “outgunned” from the beginning. So, what is the incentive for the vessel to allow the CG to board them, or not to fire upon them?

The potential flashpoint for a false-flag narrative is being created: an “attack on a U.S. Coast Guard vessel” that leads into a war…justification for an attack on North Korea.

North Korea is not going to back down. We know this. We also know that the U.S. is ratcheting up the sanctions and actions. Eventually the tipping point for either side will be reached. Another factor to consider is “Russia-gate” with one man already having pled guilty on Friday 2/23 to conspiracy with a foreign government (that being Russia) against the United States. It will just escalate from there, as we know, whether contrived or whether the charges have any basis in fact.

The questions remain: how far will the (in)Justice Department pursue this, and as it affects the President’s position, will he utilize the military option against North Korea to deflect attention? Time will tell, but once again, we are entering a situation where either side may enter into a conflict to save face. Always at the expense of the average person, and we’ll never find out the facts of who initiated it until long after it occurred.

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Jeremiah Johnson is the Nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces (Airborne).  Mr. Johnson is also a Gunsmith, a Certified Master Herbalist, a Montana Master Food Preserver, and a graduate of the U.S. Army’s SERE school (Survival Evasion Resistance Escape).  He lives in a cabin in the mountains of Western Montana with his wife and three cats. You can follow Jeremiah’s regular writings at SHTFplan.com or contact him here.

This article may be republished or excerpted with proper attribution to the author and a link to www.SHTFplan.com.

Trump Preps New North Korea Sanctions As 'Armada' Continues Toward Peninsula

As the world watches each new North Korean development with bated breath, the Trump administration is reportedly preparing new economic sanctions which could be used in lieu of military force to de-nuclearize the country.

According to Reuters, the sanctions could include a potential oil embargo, intercepting cargo ships headed to North Korea, a ban on the country"s airline, Air Koryo, and punishments for Chinese banks doing business with Pyongyang.

Despite sending a naval force to the Korean peninsula, the Trump administration is focusing its North Korea strategy on tougher economic sanctions, possibly including an oil embargo, banning its airline, intercepting cargo ships and punishing Chinese banks doing business with Pyongyang, U.S. officials say.

U.S. President Donald Trump has approved a preliminary broad approach on North Korea and asked his national security team to craft a more detailed framework for new international sanctions and other actions to counter Pyongyang"s nuclear and missile programs, one official said.

"There"s a whole host of things that are possible, all the way up to what"s essentially a trade quarantine on North Korea," the official told Reuters on Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Of course, the U.N. could also impose economic sanctions that would include an embargo on oil supplies to North Korea; a global ban on Air Koryo; and interdiction of North Korean freighters on the high seas, a step that would go beyond an existing requirement for nations to inspect ships transiting their territory.  The United Nations could also prohibit the use of North Korean contracted labor abroad and expand the restrictions on coal exports to a total ban, officials told Reuters.

Another step could be a ban on North Korean seafood exports, Pyongyang"s fourth-largest export to China, its main trading partner, and expanded efforts to seize assets of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his family.

Meanwhile, as a former U.S. State Department official points out, when it comes to economic sanctions, half measures rarely work.

Some analysts cautioned that targeting Chinese entities with so-called "secondary sanctions" could backfire and make Beijing less willing to cooperate, and that dealing with a country that already has nuclear weapons differs from dealing with one accused of trying acquire them.

"If you want to rely on sanctions to achieve your goal, you have to find a way to persuade or force the world into going all the way to a near full embargo or at least an embargo on key commodities like petroleum and on North Korean hard currency export earnings," said Joseph DeThomas, a former State Department official who worked on Iran and North Korea sanctions.

"Only if the regime sees continuation of sanctions as fatal will it consider change," he said.

Of course, news of economic sanctions comes as Trump"s "armada" is still en route to the Korean peninsula.  And while the White House seems to be open to diplomatic measures, with the assistance of China, U.S. officials have confirmed that military options remain on the table with pre-emptive strikes on North Korea remaining a last resort....a threat which Trump seemingly confirmed personally over Twitter earlier this morning.

I have great confidence that China will properly deal with North Korea. If they are unable to do so, the U.S., with its allies, will! U.S.A.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 13, 2017

Meanwhile, China has already taken steps to cut off imports of North Korean coal shipments with customs data in Beijing on Thursday showing that imports had plunged 52% in the first three months in 2017.  But while China seems to be cooperating with diplomatic efforts to reign in North Korea"s "crazy fat kid", as John McCain has described him, they"ve consistently warned the U.S. against the use of military force. 

China, North Korea"s sole major ally and benefactor, which nevertheless opposes its weapons programme, has called for talks leading to a peaceful resolution and the denuclearisation of the peninsula.

"Military force cannot resolve the issue," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters in Beijing.

"Amid challenge there is opportunity. Amid tensions we will also find a kind of opportunity to return to talks."

"Whoever provokes the situation, whoever continues to make trouble in this place, they will have to assume historical responsibility," Wang said.

"As soon as North Korea complies with China"s declared advice and suspends nuclear activities ... China will actively work to protect the security of a denuclearised North Korean nation and regime," said an editorial in the Global Times, which is published by the Communist party"s People"s Daily

So the only question now is: who will blink first?