New projections from the U.S. Geological Survey indicate Hurricane Harvey is likely to cause significant beach erosion along the Texas coastline, with water overtopping dunes and in some cases inundating areas.
As of Friday morning, the USGS Coastal Change Forecast model is predicting that 94 percent of Texas’s 367 miles of coastline will undergo some level of beach erosion from the storm surge and large waves Hurricane Harvey will produce.
“Significant coastal erosion along the coastline of Texas is expected due to the rapid strengthening of Hurricane Harvey,” said Joseph Long, USGS Research Oceanographer. “While the forecasts are subject to change as Harvey approaches land, we are making these forecasts to help inform emergency managers and communities on the potential coastal erosion hazards to be prepared for during the storm.”
There are many factors and variables to consider when trying to determine what a large storm like Harvey might do to the coast. USGS says that the USGS Coastal Change Forecast model uses the National Hurricane Center’s storm surge predictions and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration wave forecast models as key inputs, and adds information about the beach slope and dune height to predict how high waves and surge will move up the beach and whether the protective dunes will be overtopped.
Results of the modeling indicate Hurricane Harvey could have a significant impact on the beaches and dunes coastal Texas.
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