What Awaits The Middle East in the Near Future?

Of late, it has become obvious that the Arab Caliphate, which was proclaimed some time ago on the territories of Syria and Iraq, will soon cease to exist. Any day now, the Iraqi city of Mosul will be taken over. The terrorists have already begun escaping from it to Syria rather unhindered.

For some reason, instead of acting to prevent this, the international coalition headed by the United States is actually encouraging it. According to Western media, 1,500 combatants are currently confronting the armada of the Iraqi troops and the Arab coalition led by the USA. It is to some extent clear that the new Washington Administration wishes to report of its signal outstanding victory. And the fact that the terrorists, armed with advanced weaponry, including US-made equipment, by the way, are heading to Syria, does not at all worry the Pentagon generals. In actuality, it more like cheers them up. The combatants in Syria will fight with the troops of Bashar Assad, over whose resignation the US authorities always seem to salivate.

The troops of Bashar Assad, with the active and highly professional support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, are defeating terrorists, gangsters, and other criminals who are on Syrian territory illegally on a daily basis. Each day, the official authorities in Damascus report new victories. Terrorists are feeling very uncomfortable in Syria, and only the huge financial and military support of the conservative Arab regimes of the Persian Gulf is forcing them to die for the sake of undefined goals. The other day, there were reports on the transfer of the capital of the Islamic State caliphate from the city of Rakka to the city of Deir az-Zor. Nevertheless, it is apparent that the terrorists will also not be able to stay there for long. And, since the Syrians have long made their choice in favour of freedom and independence of Syria, no false lamentations of the Arab and American gentlemen will help them.

After the destruction of the Islamic State caliphate and the complete liberation of the territories of Syria and Iraq from the terrorists, the question of the future of the Middle East and possibly of its new configuration will naturally arise. It should not be forgotten that Great Britain and France artificially created the Arab states in this region after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War.

Analysing the current state of affairs, we return to the time when the Ottoman Empire, which had dominated this region for more than 400 years, was defeated, and when France and Great Britain shred the map of the Middle East at their whim and for the sake of their interests. The question about the future of the region and its people arises again. As is known, Iraqi Kurdistan lives its own life and has long been dreaming of proclaiming its independence, which depends only on the will of the Great Powers. It is quite natural that, after all the upheavals, the Syrian part of Kurdistan will require at least broader autonomy in the future Syria. In the course of time, it will negotiate some sort of unification with its Iraqi brothers.

At the same time, one should not forget that Turkey lays claim to a number of Syrian territories in the north of the country. If we are to take into consideration the active intervention of Turkish troops in Syrian affairs, then perhaps, this is due to the fact that Ankara will want to stay there even after the end of hostilities. As the facts show, Recep Erdogan, who dreams of the restoration of the former power of the Ottoman Empire, will not want to withdraw troops out of there for no special reason.

In addition, the American military units are located there in violation of all international laws and without the permission of Damascus. This involves the transfer of several hundreds of soldiers of the US Marine Corps reinforced with heavy artillery.

I do not want to be pessimistic, but the USA and Turkey, together with the terrorists of the Islamic State caliphate, are doing everything possible to tear Syria to pieces. It is not surprising that the Syrian people, well aware of these neo-colonialist plans, have rallied around their legally-elected President and made a resolution rebuff to all enemy advances.

The same complicated situation is observed in Iraq, where the opposite interests of the USA, Turkey, and Iran all collide. In addition, the Iraqi Kurdistan will withdraw from Iraq any day now, as it has already been existing independently since 1991. Taking into consideration the fact that it has huge oil deposits, which have been actively developed since the 1930s, bringing significant profits to their owners, the Kurds do not need the “guidance” of Baghdad. Strong separatist trends are observed in the South of the country where the huge oil deposits are located. Moreover, the flourishing Basra port, one of the largest ports in the Persian Gulf, is focused on exporting the “black gold”. However, it is also a transportation gateway for many goods from India and South-East Asia to Europe and back. In other words, the North and South of Iraq are doing perfectly well without Baghdad, and may live comfortably in the future.

Thus, the upcoming defeat of the Islamic State caliphate poses rather complicated issues before the politicians and diplomatic officials. Will Syria and Iraq exist in their former borders, or will new state entities be created? Apparently, the population of these countries should play the main role in this issue, without handing over complete control of their fate to greedy and deceitful overseas powers as they did before.

Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine – New Eastern Outlook