Wisconsin National Guard Plan Power-Grid Collapse Drill

According to the Wisconsin National Guard Public Affairs Office, a two-day military drill will take place in Columbia County and at Wisconsin’s Emergency Operation Center in Madison simulating a total power grid collapse on November 15-16.

As the press release states “the public should not be alarmed or concerned if they notice an increased law enforcement presence and military personnel, as well as vehicles and equipment, including non-military unmanned aerial vehicles” in the drilling region.

The drill is in conjunction with a national-level exercise, known as GridEx, which is an exercise to simulate a cyber/physical attack on electric and other critical infrastructures across North America. Wisconsin’s drill will involve county and state law enforcements and first responders, including the Wisconsin National Guard.

Maj. Gen. Don Dunbar, Wisconsin’s adjutant general said “GridEx is a great opportunity for our emergency management officials, the National Guard, local first responders and our private industry partners to train together so we are ready to respond if a threat impacted our power grid. While we simply can’t train for every possible scenario, building relationships now makes us all better prepared if we had to respond to a real-world situation.”

The article describes how Wisconsin is preparing for a total grid collapse and warns the preparation has already started. In addition, the report gives timing of the next major ‘full-scale’ drill expected in spring 2018 coined “Dark Sky”.

Over the past several years, Wisconsin has placed an emphasis on the importance of preparing for a long-term power outage and developing capabilities to respond to a cyber incident.

 

As a result, the state began developing new partnerships, policies and plans as well as a strategy that culminates in a full-scale exercise in spring 2018 called Dark Sky, which will simulate a power outage caused by a combination of cyber and physical threats. GridEx will help all participants continue to build and refine processes to better prepare for the Dark Sky exercise as well as real-world scenarios.  

Here is the list of participants who will be drilling on Nov 15-16 in Wisconsin:

• State Emergency Operations Center


• Business Emergency Operations Center


• Utilities and transmission providers


• 65 Soldiers from the National Guard Reaction Force


• FBI


• FEMA Region V


• other Federal agencies

In July, we warned about the US government quietly preparing for a total grid collapse with the passage of an Executive Order – “Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events”.

Here is snippet of section 1 of the executive order:

Space weather events, in the form of solar flares, solar energetic particles, and geomagnetic disturbances, occur regularly, some with measurable effects on critical infrastructure systems and technologies, such as the Global Positioning System (GPS), satellite operations and communication, aviation, and the electrical power grid.

 

Extreme space weather events — those that could significantly degrade critical infrastructure — could disable large portions of the electrical power grid, resulting in cascading failures that would affect key services such as water supply, healthcare, and transportation. Space weather has the potential to simultaneously affect and disrupt health and safety across entire continents. Successfully preparing for space weather events is an all-of-nation endeavor that requires partnerships across governments, emergency managers, academia, the media, the insurance industry, non-profits, and the private sector.

Just days ago, the Department of Defense wrapped up a national drill from November 04-06 simulating a total grid collapse across the United States.

The bottom line: The United States government is quietly preparing for a major power grid collapse. At this point there are many conflicting sources of what could cause such of an event, such as aging infrastructure, cyber or physical attack, EMP, and or a geomagnetic storm. As a citizen, you’re not allowed to know this knowledge and frankly you will not be prepared- only the government will be. The writing is on the wall, as the government continues to drill for the big day, coined in the report: “Dark Sky”.

Too Good For Too Long...

I"m writing this from my home in Sonoma County at the end of an intense week of witnessing firsthand the devastation caused by the many current fires burning in northern California. While it"s hard to focus on anything other than the moment-to-moment developments of this still-unfolding disaster (which I"ve been chronicling here), it"s already clear that the implications for my part of the state will last for many, many years to come.

It"s amazing how instantly the status quo where I live has changed. The world my neighbors and I lived in when we all went to bed on Sunday night simply no longer existed by the time we woke up on Monday morning. Lives have been lost. Entire neighborhoods - thousands of homes - have burned to the ground. Businesses, hospitals and schools are now shuttered.

Having now experienced this personally -- on top of watching news reports over the previous weeks of similarly abrupt "before/after" transitions in Houston, Florida, Puerto Rico, Mexico City, Las Vegas and Catalonia -- I have a new-found appreciation for the maxim that when it arrives, change happens quickly -- usually much more quickly than folks ever imagined, catching the general public off-guard and unprepared.

We humans tend to think linearly and comparatively. In other words, we usually assume the near future will look a lot like the recent past. And it does much of the time.

But other times it doesn"t. And that"s where the danger lies.

The Cruel Math

In 1987 a Danish physicist named Per Bak released a landmark paper introducing the concept of self-organized criticality. Bak observed that complex systems draw stability through an ongoing cycle of corrective collapses that keep the overall system from becoming too over-extended.

His point is best understood by watching a sand pile being formed. The pile rises as more grains of sand are added to it, until it hits a critical mass. At that point, the addition of more sand grains is likely to cause a limited collapse of the pile. The more grains of sand added, the more frequent these localized collapses are:

The key takeaway is that the end result of these collapses is that the overall size and shape of the sand pile as a whole is maintained -- i.e. the smaller corrections are necessary for maintaining the ongoing stability of the larger system (in other words, the sand pile retains a constant shape over time)

Without them, the system would grow unchecked until toppled by other laws of physics, yet at this point the energy displacement of the collapse is so large that the system is destroyed or re-set (in other words, the sand pile would rise in height over time until it collapsed entirely)

In his later 1996 book, How Nature Works, Bak showed how the same rules apply to the complex systems around us -- earthquakes, traffic jams, biological evolution, forest fires, the distribution of galaxies in the universe — and financial markets, too.

His findings are universal to complex systems. Ongoing smaller corrections are necessary for long-term stability of the larger system. And while you can"t predict exactly when the next correction will occur, the longer it takes to happen, the larger it will be (as it has more pent-up energy to displace). 

Another way to look at this is: If the smaller corrections don"t happen, the system is being set up for a much bigger and more painful collapse in the future.

In many ways, we"re seeing this manifest via the rash of recent disasters.

Let"s look at hurricanes. 2010-2016 was one of the most mild periods on record when it comes to damaging storms making landfall in the US. For whatever reason, the usual seasonal "smaller corrections" just weren"t happening as frequently in the Atlantic.

Bak"s work would predict an increasing probability of an unusually busy season of destructive hurricanes to arrive. And, right on cue, 2017 has now been recognized as the 9th most-active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history (and the season isn"t over yet!). Underscoring the point, September 2017 proved to be the #1 single most active month for Atlantic tropical cyclones on record.

Similarly, the US West is coming off of a long stretch of regrettable forestry management practices -- logging large trees, fire suppression, and livestock grazing -- which reduced the natural occurrence and frequency of smaller-scale forest fires that prevented the build up of combustible flora. As a result, the system has become much more vulnerable to unchecked fires -- a situation made worse by the effects of the prolonged recent drought (just as the warmer temperature of the Gulf of Mexico is making hurricanes there more potent). Which is why the American West is experiencing its third most severe fire season in history this year.

Et Tu, S&P?

Don"t forget that Bak"s rules for complex systems also apply to financial markets.

With that in mind, it makes the inexorable mania and lack of micro-corrections since 2009 downright frightening. Just take a look at this price chart of the S&P 500, which is currently in its second-longest-ever bull market run:

We see that as stock prices have been on a one-way ride higher over the years, downside volatility has dried up, to the point where it now practically no longer exists:

Going back 55 years, the average cumulative intra-day losses over a 25-day period is about 660 basis points, or 6.6%. As of yesterday (October 10), the last 25 days have seen a grand total intra-day loss of just 96 basis points, or 0.96%. If that seems small, it is.

In fact, outside of the period ending November 26, 2014, this is the smallest cumulative 25-day intra-day loss in the past 46 years – and the only one registering less than 100 basis points.

(Source)

Just as (until this fall) with the US east coast and hurricanes, or like my corner of California with wildfires, things since 2010 have been "too good for too long" for the financial markets. The usual cycle of smaller corrections has not been allowed to happen, resulting in an unnatural build-up of the system to a height from which a destructive re-set is increasingly probable.

How much longer this can continue is anyone guess. But Bak"s work explains why it can"t go on forever, and why the resulting collapse will be more devastating the longer it takes to happen. And with the world central banking cartel set to reduce total global QE -- just as with hotter water temperatures in the Gulf -- the conditions for catastrophy are ratcheting up.

We are getting closer and closer to the day when we awake to find the markets we had the day before no longer exist. Change happens that fast, even with financial markets. If you think you"ll be one of the smart ones to sell your current positions before things get too bad, talk to someone who was invested in the market on October 19, 1987 when it suddenly lost nearly 25% of its value in just a few hours.

While you"re at it, talk to someone in Houston, Tampa Bay, Puerto Rico or Mexico City. Or I can put you in touch with one of my friends from Santa Rosa. Any one of them will tell you how stunningly swiftly fate can upend your best-laid plans.

Takeaways From Tragedy

Fortunately this week, I was one of the lucky ones. My family and property were spared.

But I can"t say the same for many in my community. From their loss, as well as from the threat I experienced earlier this week when the fires were much closer, here are some of the key learnings that came out of this crisis:

• Preparation only matters if it"s done in advance. And it matters a LOT -- Those who had "go bags" and disaster kits in place before the fires fared much better than those who didn"t. They were able to evacuate faster, more safely, and with better self-sufficiency. And even a few small steps can make a big difference. I found that already having a stash of emergency cash as well as several containers full of gas for my car put me at a great advantage when it first looked like we were going to have flee our home. Putting it more bluntly: if you don"t have some sort of emergency prep kit at this point, you"re being unforgivably reckless. Need guidance on what to put in it? Read our free Guide To Emergency Preparedness.


• People matter much more than property -- for those who had only minutes to flee the flames, they only cared about getting their loved ones to safety. All the "stuff" they accumulated in life didn"t even factor into their thinking at that moment. The big learning here? Don"t let possessions take an undue importance in your life. A disaster can quickly take them from you, and when forced to choose, you"ll pick people over things every time. So instead, place your focus on nurturing the relationships you value and maximizing the quality of time you can spend with those people. If you could use some professional help in this area and are having trouble finding it, consider contacting the therapist we endorse (full disclosure: she"s my wife)


• Community is priceless -- no one can be prepared for everything. Community will provide for the things you lack. I"ve been blown away by the magnitude of the response from the generous folks living both within and without Sonoma County. As I wrote last week, tragedy offers a way for people to step into their best selves. Invest in your community now, so that it"s as robust as possible when you need to count on it. Looking for ways to build community? We have a free guide for that, too.

These learnings apply to any crisis, but of course, depending on the type -- natural, financial or otherwise -- additional preparations come into play.

In our recent report Part 2 -- Crisis Preparation: What To Do, we detail out, point-by-point, our complete list of the most important steps concerned individuals should take now -- before another disaster arrives -- to safeguard their investment capital, their property, and the personal security of their families. Because whether caused by Mother Nature or man"s own recklessness, we are due for more crisis. Don"t be caught unprepared. Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

"I Don't Have Anything To Start Over" - Harvey Victims Pray For Relief As 1000s Remain Stuck In Shelters

It’s been nearly a month since Hurricane Harvey, a storm that some expect to rank among the costliest natural disasters in US history, and still tens of thousands of Texans remain marooned in temporary housing, unable to return to their flood-damaged homes, while thousands more are struggling to secure hotel rooms and other types of temporary housing, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The scramble for housing has caused occupancy rates at hotels in the Houston area to surge as disaster recovery officials scramble to arrange short-term and permanent housing for those left homeless by the storm. The task of securing shelter for the displaced could take months.

“Lillian Godfrey has been sleeping on an air mattress on the floor of her friend’s shuttered night club, alongside her daughter and two pool tables, ever since floodwaters swept into her home here last month.

Ms. Godfrey, 74 years old, has a federal voucher for a hotel, but hasn’t had any luck finding a room nearby. Her daughter’s cars were lost in the flooding.

“’It’s heartbreaking,’ she said. “The Lord closes some doors and opens others. He’s going to pull me through this sooner or later.’”

As recently as Saturday night, 4,700 people remained in Red Cross shelters across Texas on Saturday night, according to the relief group. Initially as many as 450,000 Texans were displaced by the storm, while as many as 30,000 sought temporary relief in one of the state’s shelters.

Some of the displaced, uneasy with the prospect of living elsewhere, have remained in their water-damaged homes. Others were staying with friends, family or even strangers.

For the first full week of September, hotel occupancy in Houston grew to 80.5%, nearly double the occupancy rate from the same period a year earlier, according to STR Inc., a data company that tracks the hotel industry.

It is still unclear how many people in Texas will lose their homes because of the storm or how many eventually will be able to move back. But some estimates expect the total damages to property and the US economy in terms of lost productivity could tally as high as $190 billion.

“While the final scope and scale of the housing challenge is still being realized, it is already apparent that this will be one of the largest, most complex efforts ever undertaken,” said Michael Byrne, who is heading up relief efforts in Texas for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

According to data collected by WSJ from the state, city and county level, some estimated 50,712 homes suffered major damage in the storm. Meanwhile, 14,952 were destroyed and 76,364 experienced minor damage.

Local officials say 130,000 single-family homes in Harris County, which includes Houston, were estimated to have been affected by the rampant flooding. Between 2,000 and 3,000 large apartment buildings likely sustained damage, and up to 5,000 smaller apartment buildings may have been damaged as well.

“In terms of the sheer destruction due to the flooding, this is unprecedented in modern times for Houston,” said Tom McCasland, Houston’s director of housing and community development."

In some towns, the flooding remains so dire that even locations that were initially planned to be shelters flooded, forcing officials to convert public buildings like schools into back up shelters.  

“In Port Arthur, a coastal city of about 55,000, Mayor Derrick Freeman called the housing situation “dire” in the wake of heavy flooding damage.

This past week, one shelter at a middle school was full after the city’s main shelter had flooded weeks earlier, and some 250 people had been evicted from their homes by landlords because of flood damage, according to Mr. Freeman.

Another several hundred were being housed at shelters around the state, and between 4,000 and 5,000 people were still living in flood-damaged homes, Mr. Freeman said.”

In Port Arthur, city officials had hoped to temporarily house some of the displaced on two barges that a private company was going to transport from nearby Louisiana. However, by Friday, plans had shifted, and large air-conditioned tents were brought in by FEMA and the state to house the evacuees who had been sheltering at the school.

Meanwhile, many victims who were given hotel vouchers by FEMA are finding it difficult to secure rooms thanks to sky high occupancy rates.

“Debby Valsin, a 54-year-old retiree, had been living at the middle school shelter in Port Arthur with her nine-year-old grandson. She said her landlord terminated her lease after the floods because her apartment was uninhabitable, giving her five days to haul out her belongings.

Ms. Valsin qualifies for a FEMA hotel voucher but said all the nearby hotels she called are full. For now, with the start of school Monday, Ms. Valsin expected to be moved from the shelter into the tents.

‘Your life is upside down,’ she said. ‘I don’t have anything to start over.’”

However, while the situation remains incredibly dire for people on the ground, there may at least be a silver lining in the unprecedented damage brought by the storm – for auto manufacturers, that is.

As we reported last month, while terrible news to car dealers - many of whom face bankruptcy if their insurance policies don"t cover all the damages – the storm may be just what the struggling U.S. OEM and supplier industry ordered, according to a RBC.

That is, if locals have any resources left over to purchase new vehicles after their finished covering any out-of-pocket costs, which, despite President Donald Trump signing an aid package worth $15 billion.
 

$700 Billion Unpaid Mortgage Balances In Hurricane Harvey And Irma Disaster Areas

Even as the damage from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma is still being tallied, a preliminary assessment released last week by Black Knight Financial Services estimated that as many as 300,000 borrowers in the vicinity of Houston could become delinquent on their loans and 160,000 could become seriously delinquent, or more than 90 days past due. 

That number is roughly four times the original prediction because new disaster zones were designated and more homes flooded when officials released water from reservoirs to protect dams, according to CNBC"s Diana Olick. In total, the number of mortgaged properties in Texas disaster zones is 1.18 million, with Black Knight adding that Houston disaster zones contain twice as many mortgaged properties than Katrina zones, with four times the unpaid principal balance.

Putting the Harvey damange in context, after Hurricane Katrina mortgage delinquencies in Louisiana and Mississippi disaster areas spiked by 25%. The same could happen in Houston, as borrowers without flood insurance weigh their options and decide to walk away from the property. While they will get some federal relief, if rebuilding would cost more than the principal in their homes, they could decide to walk away according to Olick.

What about Irma?

According to a preliminary analysis by Black Knight released today, Florida FEMA-designated disaster areas related to Hurricane Irma include a whopping 3.1 million mortgaged properties.  As Black Knight"s EVP Ben Graboske explained, both the number of mortgages and the unpaid principal balances of those mortgages in FEMA-designated Irma disaster areas are significantly larger than in the areas impacted recently by Hurricane Harvey.

Quantifying the damage, Black Knight calculates that Irma-related disaster areas contain nearly three times as many mortgaged properties as those connected to Hurricane Harvey, and nearly seven times as many as those connected to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In dollar terms, this means that there is some $517 billion in unpaid principal balances in Irma-related disaster areas, nearly three times the amount as in those related to Harvey and more than 11 times of those connected to Katrina.

“While the total extent of the damage from Hurricane Irma is still being determined, it is clear that the size and scope of the disaster is immense,” said Graboske.

“Indeed, in terms of the number of mortgaged properties and their associated unpaid principal balances, Irma significantly outpaces even the number of borrowers impacted by Hurricane Harvey. With FEMA expanding the number of Irma-related designated disaster areas late Wednesday, Sept. 13, to a total of 37 Florida counties, more than 90 percent of all mortgaged properties in the state now fall into such areas. More than 3.1 million properties are now included in FEMA-designated Irma disaster areas, representing approximately $517 billion in unpaid principal balances. In comparison, Harvey-related disaster areas held 1.18 million properties – more than twice as many as with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 – with a combined unpaid principal balance of $179 billion. Irma-related disaster areas now contain nearly seven times as many mortgaged properties as those connected to Katrina, with more than 11 times the principal balances.

Combining the preliminary estimates for both Harvey and Irma suggests that over 3.3 million total mortgaged properties are located in Irma and Harvey-related FEMA Disaster zones, while the dollar amount of total unpaid mortgage balances in these two zones is massive: between Irma"s $517 billion and Harvey"s $179 billion, the total potential damage could impact as much as a $696 billion in notional mortgage values, which banks could be on the hook for if current occupiers decide to simply walk away.

Based on back of the envelope analyses by Black Knight, an extrapolation of the Katrina damage would suggest that Florida could suffer as much as 750,000 mortgage delinquencies as a result of Hurricane Irma.

To be sure, there are mitigating circumstances: Florida borrowers likely have more insurance and less exposure to loss, but for those homes with the most damage, homeowners will be making the same calculation as those that suffered devastating flooding after Harvey. Another issue in Florida according to Olick is that even a decade later, the housing market is still recovering from the foreclosure crisis. Five percent of Florida borrowers still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, and an additional 5 percent have very little equity in their homes. Home prices in Fort Myers, which saw considerable flooding from Irma, are still 29 percent below what they were during the housing boom.

Still, in order to avoid a surge in foreclosures, lenders are more likely to offer borrowers, even seriously delinquent borrowers, options to catch up, although the biggest risk to lenders will be in Houston, where some homeowners may see no good reason to stay.

There was some silver lining: “As Irma forged its path of destruction through the Caribbean, one relatively positive development was that Puerto Rico escaped the direct hit many had predicted. From a mortgage performance perspective, this was particularly good news, as delinquencies there were already quite high leading up to the storm. At more than 10 percent, Puerto Rico’s delinquency rate is nearly three times that of the U.S. average, as is its 5.8 percent serious delinquency rate. In contrast, the disaster areas declared in Florida have starting delinquency rates below the national average, providing more than a glimmer of optimism as we move forward.”

Unfortunately, Hurricane Maria, now a Category 3, is expected to hit Puerto Rico some time on Wednesday, adding to the damage already suffered from Irma, and potentially sending the already bankrupt territory reeling even deeper into the financial hole.

Fearful Californians Prepare For A Nuclear Attack: "A Lot Of People Will Be Killed"

With each passing day and each new ICBM launch from a seemingly unhinged North Korean dictator, the fears of an attack on the U.S. mainland, though faint, increasingly weigh on the hearts and minds of Americans, particularly those in California.  As The Guardian points out today, those fears have even prompted a group of California public health officials and emergency responders to gather for a strategy session with Hal Kempfer, a retired marine lieutenant colonel, to discuss which areas are the most likely targets and how citizens should respond to an attack.

Hal Kempfer, a noted international security expert, is getting a roomful of California public health officials and emergency responders to think about the unthinkable – a nuclear bomb exploding at the port of Long Beach, about four miles away.

“A lot of people will be killed,” he said, “but a large percentage of the population will survive. They will be at risk and they will need help.”

“If you want to mess up southern California, if you want to mess up the west coast, if you want to mess up our country – where do you attack?” Kempfer asks. “If I’m sitting in North Korea and looking at possible targets, I’m going to be looking at Long Beach very closely.”

He talks about the port and downtown Long Beach being “toast” – no exaggeration, since the blast wave is likely to vaporize everything in its immediate path. But the city health department, the Long Beach airport and fire department might not be; they are all somewhat protected by a hilly area that is likely to halt the initial blast wave. And so the city can, tentatively, think about setting up a center of emergency operations.

Of course, the radioactive fallout created as the explosion gathers up tremendous quantities of dust and ocean water and spits them into the atmosphere would represent a secondary grave risk, especially in the first hours after an attack.

Not to mention the electromagnetic pulse that is likely to knock out electronic systems including phones and computers, the pile-ups expected on the freeways as drivers are blinded by the flash of the explosion, the rush for food, water and gasoline as millions of Angelenos attempt to drive out of the region, and the terror triggered by even the idea of a second, follow-up attack.

Meanwhile, lest you think this was all just a creative way for some public employees to skip work for a day, Ventura County, located just northwest of Los Angeles, has even taken the unusual step of prepping a 250-page plan on how to respond to the humanitarian crisis that would result from a nuclear attack in Los Angeles. 

In fact, their efforts even include this truly bizarre public service announcement that instructs folks to shelter in place and cover windows with plastic.

Of course, as we pointed out back in August, while a global nuclear confrontation is generally viewed as a bad thing, for Ron Hubbard, President of Atlas Survival Shelters in Los Angeles, it has resulted in an economic windfall as a staggering number of Californians have suddenly turned into doomsday preppers.

“It’s crazy, I’ve never seen anything like it,” Ron Hubbard, president of Atlas Survival Shelters, told Fox11. “It’s all over the country. I sold shelters today in North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, California.”

The company, based in Montebello in eastern Los Angeles, sells shelters priced from $10,000 to $100,000. Hubbard told the station that the shelters are designed to be buried 20 feet below ground and can sustain survivors for up to one year, depending on the size and model.

He told the station he had sold more than 30 units in recent days, including to customers in Japan.

All that said, Kempfer points out that there is a silver lining here because any attack from North Korea likely wouldn"t result in "your traditional nuclear apocalypse scenario" because Kim Jong-Un probably only has weapons capable of destroying about 1 square mile at a time.

Rather, it’s likely to be a Hiroshima-sized bomb – large enough to obliterate everything within a square-mile radius and kill tens of thousands of people, either immediately or through the lingering effects of radiation. But still leaving millions of survivors across the region who would need help.

“We’re talking about smaller North Korean things,” Kempfer emphasized, though the word “smaller” sounds very far from reassuring. “This is not your traditional nuclear apocalypse scenario.”

So, Californians at least have that going for them, which is nice.

Ron Paul Explains Why "Government 'Aid' Only Makes Disasters Worse"

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

Texans affected by Hurricane Harvey, including my family and me, appreciate the outpouring of support from across the country. President Donald Trump has even pledged to donate one million dollars to relief efforts. These private donations will be much more valuable than the as much as 100 billion dollars the federal government is expected to spend on relief and recovery.

Federal disaster assistance hinders effective recovery efforts, while federal insurance subsidies increase the damage caused by natural disasters.

Federal disaster aid has existed since the early years of the republic. In fact, it was a payment to disaster victims that inspired Davy Crockett’s “Not Yours to Give” speech. However, the early federal role was largely limited to sending checks. The federal government did not become involved in managing disaster relief and recovery until the 20th century. America did not even have a federal agency dedicated solely to disaster relief until 1979, when President Jimmy Carter created the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) by executive order. Yet, Americans somehow managed to rebuild after natural disasters before 1979. For example, the people of Galveston, Texas successfully rebuilt the city following a major hurricane that destroyed the city in 1900.

FEMA’s well-documented inefficiencies are the inevitable result of centralizing control over something as complex as disaster recovery in a federal bureaucracy.

When I served in Congress, I regularly voted against federal disaster aid for my district. After the votes, I would hear from angry constituents, many of whom would later tell me that after dealing with FEMA they agreed that Texas would be better off without federal “help.”

Following natural disasters, individuals who attempt to return to their own property - much less try to repair the damage - without government permission can be arrested and thrown in jail.

Federal, state, and local officials often hinder or even stop voluntary rescue and relief efforts.

FEMA is not the only counterproductive disaster assistance program.

The National Flood Insurance Program was created to provide government-backed insurance for properties that could not obtain private insurance on their own. By overruling the market’s verdict that these properties should not be insured, federal flood insurance encourages construction in flood-prone areas, thus increasing the damage caused by flooding.

Just as payroll taxes are unable to fully fund Social Security and Medicare, flood insurance premiums are unable to fund the costs of flood insurance. Federal flood insurance was almost $25 billion in the red before Hurricane Harvey. Congress will no doubt appropriate funding to pay all flood insurance claims, thus increasing the national debt. This in turn will cause the Federal Reserve to print more money to monetize that debt, thus hastening the arrival of the fiscal hurricane that will devastate the US economy. Yet, there is little talk of offsetting any of the costs of hurricane relief with spending cuts!

Congress should start phasing out the federal flood insurance program by forbidding the issuance of new flood insurance policies. It should also begin reducing federal spending on disaster assistance. Instead, costs associated with disaster recovery should be made 100-percent tax-deductible. Those who suffered the worst should be completely exempted from all federal tax liability for at least two years. Tax-free savings accounts could also help individuals save money to help them bear the costs of a natural disaster.

The outpouring of private giving and volunteer relief efforts we have witnessed over the past week shows that the American people can effectively respond to natural disasters if the government would get out of their way.

Texas Activates All 12,000 National Guardsmen "In Response To Harvey Devastation"

Moments ago, in response to the devastation from hurricane Harvey, Texas Governor Abbott announced he is activating the entire Texas National Guard, bringing the total number of deployed guardsman to roughly 12,000. These National Guardsman will assist in the ongoing search and rescue effort for any Texans in immediate danger, and will be heavily involved in the extensive recovery effort in the aftermath of the storm.

°It is imperative that we do everything possible to protect the lives and safety of people across the state of Texas as we continue to face the aftermath of this storm," said Govemor Abbott. The Texas National Guard is working closely with FEMA and federal troops to respond urgently to the growing needs of Texans who have fallen victim to Hurricane Harvey, and the activation of the entire Guard will assist in the efforts already underway. I would like to thank FEMA Administrator Brock Long, as well as all our brave first responders for their hard work in helping those impacted by this terrible storm."

Maj. Gen. John F. Nichols, Texas Adjutant General, said that "we will not rest until we have made every effort to rescue all those in harm"s way. We will remain here as long as we are needed. I want to thank Govemor Abbott for his continued leadership and look forward to serving the great people of Texas."

As reported earlier, more than 30,000 people are expected to be placed temporarily in shelters, FEMA Administrator Brock Long said at a news conference on Monday. The George Brown Convention Center in downtown Houston now has about 2,500 people, up from 1,000 last night, as people continue to arrive at the center.

Wendy Rom, 24, was among those taking refuge at the center with her husband and 1 1/2-year-old daughter. "The water was high, entering our house," she told Reuters, "so we moved to the second floor but they started evacuating the neighborhood so I came with my whole family."

Dallas, 240 miles (386 km) north of Houston, also was setting up a "mega shelter" at its convention center to house 5,000 evacuees, the city said in a statement. 

As also reported previously, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said Monday that it was releasing water from two nearby reservoirs into Buffalo Bayou, the primary body of water running through Houston.

"If we dont begin releasing now, the volume of uncontrolled water around the dams will be higher and have a greater impact on the surrounding communities," said Colonel Lars Zetterstrom, Galveston district commander of the Corps.

The full Abbott statement, which judging by the number of grammatical errors was clearly rushed, is below:

Governor Abbott Activates Entire Texas National Guard In Response To Hurricane Harvey Devastation

Governor Greg Abbott today announced he has activated the entire Texas National Guard in response to Hurricane Harvey, bringing the total number of deployed guardsman to roughly 12,000. These National Guardsman will assist in the ongoing search and rescue effort for any Texans in immediate danger, and will be heavily involved in the extensive recovery effort in the aftermath of the storm.

°It is imperative that we do everything possible to protect the lives and safety of people across the state of Texas as we continue to face the aftermath of this storm," said Govemor Abbott. The Texas National Guard is working closely with FEMA and federal troops to respond urgently to the growing needs of Texans who have fallen victim to Hurricane Harvey, and the activation of the entire Guard will assist in the efforts already underway. I would like to thank FEMA Administrator Brock Long, as well as all our brave first responders for their hard work in helping those impacted by this terrible storm."

"While this is still a dangerous situation with a long response effort ahead, the state and people of Texas are resilient," said FEMA Administrator Brock Long. °FEMA was here before the storm hit, and we will be here as long as needed, actively coordinating the full resources of the federal government, to support Gov. Abbott and the state."

"The men and women of the Texas National Guard are working around the clock to support all relief efforts from Hurricane Harvey," said Maj. Gen. John F. Nichols, Texas Adjutant General. "We will not rest until we have made every effort to rescue all those in harm"s way. We will remain here as long as we are needed. I want to thank Govemor Abbott for his continued leadership and look forward to serving the great people of Texas."

The Texas Guard currently has approximately 3,000 personnel activated and mobilized for operations relating to Hurricane Harvey rescue and recovery. This new mobilization by Govemor Abbott send those who are physically able, not currently deployed, preparing to deploy or in a combat preparation cycle to answer the call for help and assist their fellow Texans in need. All Texas Military Department personnel should report to their respective units for further instructions.

"We're Back In The '60s Again" - Bomb-Shelter Sales Are Booming In The US And Japan

US-based bomb-shelter manufacturers should maybe think about buying Kim Jong Un a fruit basket.

According to McClatchy, sales have in both the US and Japan have risen dramatically this year as President Donald Trump and Kim have exchanged threats of nuclear annihilation. US and Japanese defense officials now believe the North is in possession of a nuclear warhead small enough to fit onto one of its ICBMS. The isolated country launched three short-range missiles into the East Sea Friday night – its first missile test in nearly a month – after US officials had praised Kim’s restraint earlier in the week.

Ron Hubbard, president of Atlas Survival Shelters, a firm based in Montebello, California, said he expects to sell 1,000 shelters this year at a price of $25,000 apiece, according to McClatchy.

"Sales and inquiries have spiked, according to several of the U.S. companies that make money from doomsday fears.

“The increase in demand is everywhere. We are getting hundreds of calls,” said Ron Hubbard, president of Atlas Survival Shelters, a firm based in Montebello, California. Inquiries have slowed down as tensions have eased over the last week, but Hubbard said he still expects to have a banner year, selling 1,000 shelters at an average price of $25,000 each.”

Sales in Japan have increased to the point where one manufacturer is opening a sales office in Osaka.  

“Hubbard reports there is intensified demand in Japan, where he has opened a sales office in Osaka. He’s also opening a new 400,000-square-foot plant in Dallas, largely to serve the Japanese market.

“We are back in the 1960s again,” said Hubbard, referring to the Cold War demand for bomb shelters. “We’ve got a crazy man on one side and Donald Trump on the other.”

Gary Lynch, general manager of Rising S Shelters in Murchison, Texas, has also seen a rise in demand for his products both in Japan and the US.

“"It is all due to the rhetoric on what is going on in North Korea,’ said Lynch, who said he has sold 67 bomb shelters internationally this year, mostly to Japan, compared to just nine for all of 2016.”

Lynch’s boss, Rising S owner Clyde Scott, told McClatchy that after Obama became president in early 2009, his company was inundated with orders from conservatives who were afraid Obama would try and take their guns. Now, Rising S is selling shelters to Democrat who are afraid Trump will start a war.

“In the United States, bomb shelter customers run the gamut. Some are homeowners recently alarmed about the threat of a nuclear strike. They also include survivalists and “preppers” — people preparing for man-made or natural disasters. Rising S is owned by a Texas prepper named Clyde Scott, who named his company after Jesus Christ, the rising son.

After Barack Obama was elected, Lynch said Rising S was contacted by customers worried about the government coming after their guns. After Trump was elected, a different clientele — Democrats — started calling. "People are worried that Trump would start a war," he said.”

Falling prices could be another reason for the bump in sales…

“Atlas markets 15 types of shelters, Hubbard said, but focuses on a corrugated steel pipe model, which can be decked out with luxuries or kept as a simple “man cave.” He said he’s brought his average price down from $100,000 to about $25,000 in the past six years.

“I think of myself as a modern-day Henry Ford, coming out with a shelter that everyone can afford,” Hubbard said.”

Instead of selling individual shelters, one California-based company built a doomsday bunker in Indiana and sold shares for $35,000 a pop. They’ve already sold out.

"Vivos, another California-based company, offers a completely different shelter experience. It sells shares in underground bunker complexes, a sort of doomsday condominium. Vivos — which means “to live” in Latin — says that its 80-person Indiana complex is completely sold out, with shares going for $35,000 per adult.

Even Kim and Kanye are buying…

“In their sales pitches, bunker companies also promise customers complete confidentiality. Rising S continues to fend off tabloid rumors that it"s building a bunker for Kanye West and Kim Kardashian.”

…but they"re trying to keep it quiet because people who own bunkers generally don’t want their neighbors to know they have one.

“Owners of shelters generally insist they don’t want their neighbors to know they have one, Hubbard said. “They would all be freaking out and banging on your door,” he said. “It is kind of like when a ship sinks — everyone swims to the floating life raft."

Demand for bunkers is rising even in South Korea, where residents have long since written off Kim Jong Un’s threats as empty rhetoric.

“There’s even increased interest in South Korea, he says.

“South Koreans generally don’t buy shelters because they are numb to the rhetoric coming out of North Korea,” he said. “But apparently Kim Jong Un has struck a chord.”

Though Trump promised during the campaign to adhere to an “America first” policy of nonintervention, he has repeatedly demonstrated a knack for military confrontation since taking office, having launched a missile strike on a Syrian government airfield and, just this past week, announcing that he would increase the number of troops in Afghanistan – a decision that reportedly inspired former staffer Sebastian Gorka to resign in protest.

In the absence of Bannon, as long as Trump continues to surround himself with generals like Chief of Staff John Kelly, the threat of thermonuclear conflict will linger.
 

Bomb Shelter Sales "Skyrocket" In California As Nuclear Fears Spike

Equity investors today failed to follow through on initial efforts to "Buy The Fucking Fire and Fury Dip" but they are apparently rushing out to buy their very own doomsday bunkers on the off chance that President Trump wasn"t joking yesterday when he offered the following warning to North Korea:

President Trump: If North Korea makes any more threats to the U.S., "they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen" pic.twitter.com/8dQed79L1W

— NBC News (@NBCNews) August 8, 2017

Apparently the comments have spooked some folks on America"s west coast who are thought to be within Kim Jong Un"s nuclear strike radius. And while a global nuclear confrontation is generally viewed as a bad thing, for Ron Hubbard, President of Atlas Survival Shelters in Los Angeles, it has resulted in an economic windfall.  Here"s more from The Sacramento Bee:

“It’s crazy, I’ve never seen anything like it,” Ron Hubbard, president of Atlas Survival Shelters, told Fox11. “It’s all over the country. I sold shelters today in North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, California.”

The company, based in Montebello in eastern Los Angeles, sells shelters priced from $10,000 to $100,000. Hubbard told the station that the shelters are designed to be buried 20 feet below ground and can sustain survivors for up to one year, depending on the size and model.

He told the station he had sold more than 30 units in recent days, including to customers in Japan.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Vivos, another shelter manufacturer in Del Mar, Calif., near San Diego, also has experienced a spike in business.

“Japan’s going hog wild right now,” said Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival. The Montebello, California-based company makes about a dozen different underground refuge models intended to be inhabitable for six months to a year, some outfitted with escape tunnels, decontamination rooms and bulletproof hatches.

“People are getting off the fence – we’ve got thousands and thousands of applications,” said Robert Vicino, founder and chief executive officer of Vivos, Spanish for “alive.”

Vivos sells models for individual and communal use, and the company has built subterranean survival communities in the U.S. and Europe. The latest, xPoint, covers 9,000 acres in South Dakota with 575 off-grid dugouts. Planned amenities include a community theater, hydroponic gardens, shooting ranges, restaurant and bar. Shelters in the community are available for lease with an up-front cost of $25,000. Vicino told Bloomberg about 50 units have been leased or reserved.

Of course, for now we can only speculate that Trump and Putin must have colluded in efforts to spark a global nuclear confrontation while quietly buying up bunker manufacturers behind the scenes to make a little extra cash.  We demand that Special Counsel Mueller expand his investigation to look into this rather suspicious development immediately. 

The Cannibal Warlords of Liberia and The Death of Nazi Germany

Every time, I look around this place
I see them screams but I hear no sound
And the terrible things happen down the road
To somebody else that I don"t even know

Nothing bad ever happens to me
Nothing bad ever happens to me
Nothing bad ever happens to me
Nothing bad ever happens to me

-Oingo Boingo

Ain"t normalcy bias swell?

The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects, because it causes people to have a bias to believe that things will always function the way things normally function. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations.

The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since one has never personally experienced a disaster, one never will. It can result in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. They also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation. Normalcy bias is essentially a "desire for the status quo."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

Are you having a hard time waking up some family or friends, or even yourself, to the possibility that you may someday want to get the fuck out of Dodge City?  Are you for some reason unable to travel to the formerly beautiful Damascus, Syria, or Caracas, Venezuela, to see first-hand what it looks like when SHTF?

I might be able to help.    

The next time you have an hour to kill, I highly recommend you use the time to watch the 2009 Vice documentary, The Cannibal Warlords of Liberia.  

You will meet the amazing local priest, General Butt Naked...

You will learn what to expect from the local youth group in a societal collapse...

You will see the how government authority reacts to collapse...

Then, follow it up by the reading the excellent book, Hellstorm: The Death of Nazi Germany, 1944-1947, by Thomas Goodrich.  Although I highly recommend reading the book, there is also apparently a related 90 minute documentary video available online, Hellstorm : The Genocide of Germany by the Common Enemy.

You will learn of the massive amount of state-sponsored rape and murder of German women in the final days of World War 2.  

You will learn what amount of mercy to expect from governments in such situations...

If you decide that you want to put together a plan and some resources to bravely run away if the SHTF, then please consider starting with these three ZeroHedge articles.

Peace, liberty, prosperity,

h_h

Washington D.C. To Hold Massive "Coordinated Terror Attack" Drill This Wednesday

April 26th is shaping up to be a busy day.

As we reported on Friday, that"s when Operation Gotham Shield, an exercise involving FEMA, Homeland Security and a myriad of law enforcement and military agencies and which simulates a nuclear bomb blast over Manhattan, is set to conclude.

Then, as we learned earlier, April 26 is also when the entire Senate will be briefed by Donald Trump and his four top defense and military officials on the situation in North Korea at the White House, an event which Reuters dubbed as "unusual."

April 26 is also when the USS Carl Vinson is expected to finally arrive off the coast of the Korean Penninsula.

Now, in a statement from the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, the regional association reports that "law enforcement officials and other first responders will participate in a full-scale exercise on April 26 designed to prepare for the possibility of a complex coordinated terror attack in the National Capital Region."

The statement adds that emergency managers who work together at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) planned the exercise to help protect residents by preparing for an attack involving multiple target locations and teams of perpetrators.

The exercise will be conducted across a widespread geographical area. According to the release, the regional exercise will be staged at six sites in the District of Columbia, suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia, and will involve hundreds of police, fire, and emergency medical service personnel and volunteer actors.

The locations include neighborhoods in the northeast and southeast quadrants of the District of Columbia, Prince George’s County, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties.  Residents in those neighborhoods will be notified ahead of time to expect the exercise.

According to Scott Boggs, Managing Director of Homeland Security and Public Safety at COG, “Law enforcement officials practice and exercise their skills on their own regularly because that’s the best way to ensure we are always ready to respond quickly and professionally. On April 26, we’ll go one step further and stage a very realistic emergency event involving multiple sites and actors posing as the casualties.  However, there is no reason for residents to be alarmed because the exercise will occur in a controlled environment.”

The is scheduled to take place near or at George Mason University, and last from 8;30am until 4:30pm.

The statement also advises that the only media availability will be in a one hour block before the exercise, from 7:30am - 8:30am on April 26.

Full statement below (link).

Full-scale exercise focused on preparing for complex terror attacks to include National Capital Region first responders, emergency managers

Law enforcement officials and other first responders will participate in a full-scale exercise on April 26 designed to prepare for the possibility of a complex coordinated terror attack in the National Capital Region.

Emergency managers who work together at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) planned the exercise to help protect residents by preparing for an attack involving multiple target locations and teams of perpetrators.

The regional exercise will be staged at six sites in the District of Columbia, suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia, and will involve hundreds of police, fire, and emergency medical service personnel and volunteer actors. The locations include neighborhoods in the northeast and southeast quadrants of the District of Columbia, Prince George’s County, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties.  Residents in those neighborhoods will be notified ahead of time to expect the exercise.

“Law enforcement officials practice and exercise their skills on their own regularly because that’s the best way to ensure we are always ready to respond quickly and professionally,” said Scott Boggs, Managing Director of Homeland Security and Public Safety at COG. “On April 26, we’ll go one step further and stage a very realistic emergency event involving multiple sites and actors posing as the casualties.  However, there is no reason for residents to be alarmed because the exercise will occur in a controlled environment.”

MEDIA AVAILABILITY PRIOR TO EXERCISE ONLY (see details below)

WHEN: Wednesday April 26, 7:30 – 8:30 A.M.

WHERE: Maryland National Capital Park Police Headquarters, 8100 Corporate Drive, Hyattsville, MD 20785

Contact: Jeanne Saddler
Phone: (202) 962-3250
Email: jsaddler@mwcog.org

h/t: @stockboardasset

Operation Gotham Shield: U.S. Gov't To "Simulate Nuke Blast Over Manhattan"

Something has aroused the interests of the American people... perhaps one too many coincidentally "useful" event means government facilitators have jumped the shark? (via Google Trends)

Which is perhaps why, after discovering Project Gotham Shield, SHTFplan.com"s Mac Slavo warns, a false flag watch is now active.

A general alert is out for something major in the near or immediate future. Hopefully, it is just another false alarm, instead of another false flag. Either way, danger is at hand.

Given all that is going on in the world, it is downright eerie to discover that the federal government is once again staging mock disasters that draw disturbing parallels with current world events.

In just a few days, during April 24-26th, Operation Gotham Shield will commence.

It is a tabletop, joint agency exercise involving FEMA, Homeland Security and a myriad of law enforcement and military agencies. WMD, chemical and biological units will all be on hand as a response is tested for a “simulated” nuclear detonation over the United States’ foremost urban center, in the iconic and densely populated island of Manhattan and nearby shores of New Jersey.

The potential for a more explosive false flag to spin out of control, by hijacking and ‘converting’ the simulated actions, is all too real.

This is closely related to the mechanism that many researchers believe was at work on the day of 9/11, nesting a false flag attack inside of a series of large-scale training operations which invoked emergency powers and simulated attacks in locations that were actually hit.

According to the Voice of Reason:

On April 18th thru May 5th, 2017, state, local, and federal organizations alike are planning for Operation Gotham Shield 2017 — a major nuclear detonation drill in the New York-New Jersey area, along with the U.S.-Canadian border.

During this exercise, 4 nuclear devices, 2 of which are rendered “safe” during the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) Vital Archer Exercise, and one successful 10kt detonation in the NYC/NJ area, along with one smaller detonation on the U.S./Canadian border are to take place.

Among the organizations involved are:

– U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)

– U.S. Department of Defense (DOD)

– U.S. Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO)

– U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)

– U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

– U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM)

– State of New Jersey Office of Emergency Management

– State of New York Office of Emergency Management

– City of New York Office of Emergency Management

The following document comes form The Nevada National Security Service. Their primary role with the government is to help ensure the security of the United States and its allies by supporting the stewardship of the nuclear deterrent, providing emergency response capability and training, and contributing to key nonproliferation and arms control initiatives.

Will anything catastrophic happen during or after that window of time? Will North Korea really attack the U.S. mainland? Will someone else do so, and blame their overseas enemies?

No one who knows the answers to these questions is willing to talk. For now, all we can do is watch, wait and listen.

Don’t jump to fear and speculation, but don’t lie down or look away either.

These will be trying times.

*  *  *

Full Gotham Shield 2017 Presentation below: