Showing posts with label BIS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BIS. Show all posts

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Brandon Smith Warns "The Virtual Economy" Is The End Of Freedom

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,


There is one simple rule to follow when understanding the tragic history of economies: Never put blind faith in a system built on an establishment-created foundation. You would think this would not be a difficult concept to grasp being that we have so many examples of controlled economies and collapse to reference over the centuries, but in our era more than ever the allure of a virtual world with promises of endless wealth and ease is overwhelming.



Yes, I am referring primarily to cyptocurrency "tulip-mania" (sorry bitcoiners, the description is too fitting, it isn"t going away), but not this issue alone. I am also referring to a far-reaching problem of which cryptocurrencies are a mere reflection.


Namely, the fact that humanity is swiftly losing sight of what a true economy is and what it is supposed to accomplish. It is because of this reality that crypto is thriving.


First, let"s be clear, fiat currencies are one of the first machinations of the virtual economy. Once paper currencies printed from thin air by central bankers were separated from tangible backing and accepted by the masses as "valuable" and worth trading labor for, the seed of financial cancer was planted. Today, there is one final step needed for the establishment to accomplish complete tyranny in global trade and that is to disconnect the masses fully from private transactions. In other words, we must be tricked into going digital, where privacy is an absurd memory.


Virtual economics is appealing for several reasons, most of them bad.


Americans and much of the west in particular are increasingly uncomfortable with the idea of real production. The latest generation coming into political and social influence, the millenials, is a perfect example. Surveys show American millenials more than any other generation lack basic workplace competency skills, including scoring low on arithmetic and reading comprehension. Often portrayed as "tech savvy" in popular culture and the media, millenials are quite inept when it comes to core skills that fuel strong business and trade, which is part of the reason why the U.S. is falling into the shadow of foreign workforces.


Millenials in the West also exhibit abysmal technical skills in international testing and lag far behind foreign peers. This has come as a surprise to many mainstream economists and social analysts, primarily because millenials are also considered the "most educated" generation ever. But, of course, we have not only been given a virtual economy in recent decades, but also a virtual educational system. A majority of millenials are lacking when it comes to key production skills and entrepreneurship methods because they have been trained to dismiss such skills as negligible. In other words, millenials have been conditioned to be academic idiots.


Why go through the struggle and hardship required to become an effective producer of tangible necessities when it is far easier to join a collectivist drive for socialism and a structure in which little to no work is required to obtain such necessities? Why not steal from a productive minority and spread it thinly enough to keep the unskilled majority fed? It is only within this kind of culture that virtual production, a virtual society and virtual "money" is seen as an ideal solution.


The notion is becoming more and more prevalent in our popular media, and I believe this is rather symbolic (or ironic) of our conundrum.


For example, consider the book Ready Player One, a pop-culture craze and archetypal zeitgeist for millenials soon to be released as an intended Hollywood blockbuster directed by Steven Spielberg. The novel depicts the world of 2045, a world in which fossil fuel depletion and "global warming" have triggered economic and social decline (Remember in the 1980s when they used to tell us that global warming was going to melt the polar icecaps and we would be under water by the year 2000?). A totalitarian governing body controlled by corporate behemoths rules over the dystopian sprawl.


In response to an ever painful existence in the real world, the masses have sought to escape to a virtual world called "the Oasis," created by a programming genius. The Oasis becomes a nexus for the global economy and a virtual society.


This sounds like a rousing background for a story of rebellion, and it is about that... sort of. Unfortunately, here is where the disturbing ties between our world and the fictional world of Ready Player One meet. The "rebellion" is for all intents and purposes also virtual, and for millenial audiences in particular, this is supposed to be inspiring.


Perhaps this is why cryptocurrencies are so appealing to the millenial crowd in particular. Think about it — the dismal economic doldrums of Ready Player One exist NOW; we don"t have to wait until 2045. Millenials are already feeling disaffected, indebted and disenfranchised, and most of them are also skill-less. Self reliance to them is an idea so alien it rarely if ever crosses their minds. So, how do they fight back? Or, how are they tricked into thinking they can fight back against a virtual system that has left them in the gutter? Why, with a virtual community and a virtual currency, of course.


Millenials and others think that they are going to rebel and "take down the banking oligarchs" with nothing more than digital markers representing "coins" tracked on a digital ledger created by an anonymous genius programmer/programmers. Delusional? Yes. But like I said earlier, it is an appealing notion.


Here is the issue, though; true money requires intrinsic value. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value. They are conjured from nothing by programmers, they are "mined" in a virtual mine created from nothing, and they have no unique aspects that make them rare or tangibly useful. They are an easily replicated digital product. Anyone can create a cryptocurrency. And for those that argue that "math gives crypto intrinsic value," I"m sorry to break it to them, but the math is free.


In fact, for those that are not already aware, Bitcoin uses the SHA-256 hash function, created by none other than the National Security Agency (NSA) and published by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST).


Yes, that"s right, Bitcoin would not exist without the foundation built by the NSA. Not only this, but the entire concept for a system remarkably similar to bitcoin was published by the NSA way back in 1996 in a paper called "How To Make A Mint: The Cryptography Of Anonymous Electronic Cash."


The origins of bitcoin and thus the origins of crytpocurrencies and the blockchain ledger suggest anything other than a legitimate rebellion against the establishment framework and international financiers. I often cite this same problem when people come to me with arguments that the internet has set the stage for the collapse of the globalist information filter and the mainstream media. The truth is, the internet is also an establishment creation developed by DARPA, and as Edward Snowden exposed in his data dumps, the NSA has total information awareness and backdoor control over every aspect of web data.


Many people believe the free flow of information on the internet is a weapon in favor of the liberty movement, but it is also a weapon in favor of the establishment. With a macro overview of data flows, entities like Google can even predict future social trends and instabilities, not to mention peek into every personal detail of an individual"s life and past.


To summarize, cryptocurrencies are built upon an establishment designed framework, and they are entirely dependent on an establishment created and controlled vehicle (the internet) in order to function and perpetuate trade.  How exactly is this "decentralization", again?


TOTAL information awareness is the goal here; and blockchain technology helps the powers-that-be remove one of the last obstacles: private personal trade transactions. Years ago, a common argument presented in favor of bitcoin was that it was "completely anonymous."  Today, this is being proven more and more a lie. Even now, in the wake of open admissions by major bitcoin proponents that the system is NOTanonymous, people still claim anonymity is possible through various measures, but this has not proven to sway the FBI or IRS which have for years now been using resources such as Chainanalysis to track bitcoin users when they feel like doing so, including those users that have taken stringent measures to hide themselves.


Bitcoin proponents will argue that "new developments" and even new cryptocurrencies are solving this problem. Yet, this was the mantra back when bitcoin was first hitting the alternative media. It wasn"t a trustworthy assumption back then, so why would it be a trustworthy assumption now? The only proper assumption to make is that nothing digital is anonymous. Period.


With the ludicrous spike in bitcoin prices, champions of the virtual economy are unlikely to listen to any questions or criticisms. I have never argued one way or the other in terms of bitcoin"s potential "market value," because it does not really matter. I have only ever argued that cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are in no way a solution to combating the international and central banks.  In fact, cyrptocurrencies only seem to be expediting their plan for full spectrum digitization and the issuance of a global currency system.


Bitcoin could easily hit $100,000, but its "value" is truly irrelevant and consistently hyped as if it makes bitcoin self evident as a solution to globalism. The higher the bitcoin price goes, the more the bitcoin cult claims victory, yet the lack of intrinsic value never seems to cross their minds. They have Scrooge McDuck-like visions of swimming in a vault of virtual millions. They"ll only accuse you of being an "old fogey" that "does not understanding what the blockchain is."


The fact is, they are the one"s that do not really understand what the blockchain is — a framework for a completely cashless society in which trade anonymity is dead and economic freedom is destroyed.


Ask yourself this: Why is it that central banks around the world (including the BIS and IMF) are investing in Bitcoin and other crytpocurrencies while developing their own crypto systems based on a similar framework? Could it be that THIS infusion of capital and infrastructure from major banks is the most likely explanation for the incredible spike in the bitcoin market?  Why is it that globalist banking conglomerates like Goldman Sachs lavish blockchain technology with praise in their white papers? And, why are central bankers like Ben Bernanke speaking in favor of crypto at major cryptocurrency conferences if crypto is such a threat to central bank control?


Answer — because it is not a threat. 


They benefit from a cashless system, and liberty champions are helping to give it to them.


Above all else, the virtual economy breeds weakness in society. It encourages a lack of tangible production. Instead of true producers, entrepreneurs and inventors, we have people scrambling to sell real world property in order to buy computing rigs capable of "mining" coins that do not really exist. That is to say, we may one day soon be faced with millions of citizens expending their labor and energy in order to obtain digital nothings programmed into existence and given artificial scarcity (for now).


It also encourages false rebellion. Real change requires actions in the real world. Removing banking elitists and their structures by force if necessary (and this will probably be necessary). Instead, freedom activists are being convinced that they will never have to lift a finger to beat the bankers. All they have to do is buy and mine crypto. The day will come in the near future when the folks that embrace this nonsense will wake up and realize they have wasted their energies chasing a unicorn and are ill prepared to weather the economic reset that continues to evolve.


To maintain a real economy in which people are self reliant and safe from fiscal shock, you need three things: tangible localized and decentralized production, independent and decentralized trade networks that are not structured around an establishment controlled system (like the internet is controlled), and the will to apply force to protect and preserve that production and those networks. If you cannot manufacture a useful thing, repair a useful thing or teach a useful skill, then you are essentially useless in a real economy. If you do not have localized trade, you have nothing.  If you do not have the mindset and the community of independent people required to protect your local production, then you will not be able to keep the economy you have built.


This is the cold hard truth that crypto proponents do not want to discuss, and will dismiss outright as "archaic" or "not obtainable." The virtual economy is so much easier, so much more enticing, so much more comfortable. Why risk anything or everything in a real world effort to build a concrete trade network in your own neighborhood or town? Why risk everything by promoting true decentralization through localized commodity-backed money and barter systems? Why risk everything by defending those systems when the establishment seeks to crush them? Why do this, when you can pretend you are a virtual hero wielding virtual weapons in a no risk rebellion in a world of electronic ones and zeros?


In truth, the virtual economy is not legitimate decentralization, it is a weapon of mass distraction engineered to kill legitimate decentralization.









Sunday, December 10, 2017

New CME Bitcoin Futures And The Goldman Sachs Connection

Embedded into Bincoin’s genesis block by Satoshi Nakamoto on January 3, 2009, the day Bitcoin went live, was a message which is now well-known throughout the Bitcoin community. This message, taken from The Times newspaper of that day, read “Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”.



While there is ongoing debate as to its significance, the message was arguably a commentary on Satoshi’s less than favorable regard for the parasitic, unstable and inflationary nature of the contemporary banking system, as well as a statement on Bitcoin being able to provide a more equitable transfer system by cutting financial institutions out of the equation.


Elsewhere, Satoshi had elaborated on banks, again is a less than flattering way:


“Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts. Their massive overhead costs make micropayments impossible.”



We can therefore conclude that the Bitcoin creator does not have a high opinion of banks in general, which probably also explains why Satoshi created Bitcoin in the first place, and why Satoshi’s white paper about Bitcoin was first published on a cypherpunks mailing list, and not, for example, within the pages of a Bank for International Settlements (BIS) research report.


Which is why it would be intriguing at this time to know what Satoshi thinks of the imminent launch of (US dollar cash-settled) Bitcoin futures by the CME Group. But even more interestingly, it would be intriguing to know what Satoshi would think of the fact that the settlement prices of these new CME Bitcoin futures are based on calculations by a private London-based company whose founder and sole director is from Goldman Sachs.


As a reminder, this is the same Goldman Sachs which Matt Taibbi described as follows, coincidentally also in 2009:


"The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it"s everywhere. The world"s most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."  



This is also the same Goldman Sachs, whose alumni currently occupy positions in the most powerful financial positions in the world, positions such as US Secretary of the Treasury (Steven Mnuchin), President of the European Central Bank (Mario Draghi), Governor of the Bank of England (Mark Carney), and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Bill Dudley).


The Fix is In: CME Bitcoin Futures


One key feature that stands out when glancing at the contract specs of these soon to be launched CME Bitcoin futures contracts is that they will be cash-settled based on a “CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)


A recent CME press release elaborates:


“CME Group"s Bitcoin futures will be cash-settled, based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) which serves as a once-a-day reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin.  


 


Since November 2016, CME Group and Crypto Facilities Ltd. have calculated and published the BRR, which aggregates the trade flow of major bitcoin spot exchanges during a calculation window into the U.S. Dollar price of one bitcoin as of 4:00 p.m. London time.


 


The BRR is designed around the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks.


 


Bitstamp, GDAX, itBit and Kraken are the constituent exchanges that currently contribute the pricing data for calculating the BRR.”



A reference rate / benchmark calculated in the City of London that is used as a basis for the settlement of multi-billion dollar financial contracts. Wait, where have we heard that before?


The CME web site also helpfully hosts a methodology document for this Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR), but which strangely has very little mention of CME, and a lot of citations to Crypto Facilities Ltd.


The document is even titled "Crypto Facilities - Digital Assets Unleashed" (dated March 6, 2017) and also copyrighted by Crypto Facilities Ltd. “© 2015 - 2017 CRYPTO FACILITIES LTD. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. PATENT PENDING.”


In this methodology document, both the Administrator and Calculation Agent of the BRR are exclusively listed as "Crypto Facilities Ltd", based at an address in the City of London:


Contact Details: Crypto Facilities Ltd 4th Floor 25 Copthall Avenue London EC2R 7BP


 


Web: https://www.cryptofacilities.com Phone: +44 20 7655 6085 Email: contact@cryptofacilities.com



So who or what is “Crypto facilities Ltd”?  Looking at the UK Companies registration web site (Companies House), reveals that "Crypto Facilities Ltd" was incorporated on 12 August 2014 as a private limited company in the UK.


According to Companies House, "Crypto Facilities Ltd" only has one director, a certain Timo Schlaefer.


Who is this Timo Schlaefer? According to LinkedIn, Timo Schlaefer was with the Vampire Squid Goldman Sachs between 2011 to 2015. Strangely though, the header of Schlaefer"s LinkedIn profile still says “Goldman Sachs”.



LinkedIn screenshot
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/timoschlaefer/en


Then there is a Bitcoin Magazine article about Schlaefer dated February 2015 which describes him as “Executive Director in Credit Quantitative Modelling at Goldman Sachs.”


In summary, here we have a new Bitcoin futures contract, a derivative on the global phenomenon that is Bitcoin, whose settlement price is based on a reference rate calculated in London by an unknown company whose sole director is from Goldman Sachs.


But there is nothing to worry about, because CME also confirms that there is an Oversight Committee for this Bitcoin Reference Rate calculation. This committee has the impressive title of the “Bitcoin Pricing Products Oversight Committee”, and the Committee:


“has been established jointly by Crypto Facilities Ltd. (“CF”) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (“CME”).


 


The initial members of the Oversight Committee and its Chairman shall be appointed jointly by CF and CME”



While we will leave you to ponder what all of this means, its difficult to imagine that US dollar cash-settled CME Bitcoin Futures were on Satoshi’s radar when he typed “Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks” into his computer on January 3, 2009, hitting the enter key and kicking off Bitcoin’s genesis block and the creation of a new global system for disintermediating banks and sparking the emergence of an entire new universe of crypto currencies and blockchain platforms.









Friday, December 8, 2017

Albert Edwards: "Here"s Why The Current Situation Is Even Worse Than The 2008 Crisis"

Back in May, we first reported that Goldman became the first bank to dare to ask if the Fed has lost control of the market, if in slightly more polite terms of course. This is how Jan Hatzius phrased it: "Despite two rate hikes and indications of impending balance sheet runoff, financial conditions have continued to loosen in recent months. Our financial conditions index is now about 50bp below its November 2016 average and near the easiest levels of the past two years." Several months later, after the third rate hike, Goldman found that once again, paradoxically, financial conditions eased further, and the market rose even more in direct opposition of what Fed rate hikes are supposed to do!


Fast forward to this weekend, when we reported that that lovely word which describes the new normal so well - "paradox" - made a repeat appearance, this time in the last quarterly report by the Bank of International Settlement, which for the nth time issued an alert on the state of the stock market, an alert which will be summarily ignored by everyone until after the crash, and reminded everyone what happened the last time financial conditions eased instead of tightening when the Fed hiked rates (spoiler alert: biggest crash in modern history). This is what the BIS" chief economist Claudio Borio said (among other things)"








Hence a paradox. Even as the Fed has proceeded with its tightening, overall financial conditions have eased. For instance, a standard indicator of such conditions, which combines information from various asset classes, points to an overall easing regardless of the precise date at which the tightening is assumed to have started. Indeed, that indicator touched a 24-year low. If financial conditions are the main transmission channel for tighter policy, has policy in effect been tightened at all?  (We can see from the BIS chart below how, unlike the last 12-month period, the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index did actually tighten in the May 2004-May 2005 period, and especially in the January 1994-January 1995 period.)










“In fact, this paradoxical outcome is not entirely new… it is reminiscent of the Fed policy tightening in the 2000s - the phase that spawned the now famous "Greenspan conundrum". Then, overall financial conditions hardly budged, and in some respects eased, as the Federal Reserve progressively raised rates. The experience contrasted sharply with previous tightenings, not least the one in 1994. At that time, long-term rates soared, the yield curve steepened, asset prices fell, corporate spreads widened, and EMs came under pressure. 


 


Today"s experience is reminiscent of the repeated reassurance of the 2000s" "measured pace", except that the adjustment has been, if anything, even more telegraphed. If gradualism comforts market participants that tighter policy will not derail the economy or upset asset markets, its predictability compresses risk premia. This can foster higher leverage  and risk-taking. By the same token, any sense that central banks will not remain on the sidelines should market tensions arise simply reinforces those incentives. Against this backdrop, easier financial conditions look less surprising.



Today, it was SocGen"s grumpy "permarealist" Albert Edwards" turn to focus on this peculiar "paradox" in which the more the Fed tightens, the higher markets rise in the process "poisoning the market."


Picking up on what Bank of America showed yesterday, namely that central banks broke both volatility and the market itself some time in 2013/2014...



... in his latest "weekly" note (published about 3 weeks after the last one), Edwards writes that "so scared (or is that scarred) were central bankers after the summer 2013 taper tantrum, they have now gone out of their way to reassure financial markets. Thus recent tightenings of monetary policy, whether by the Fed, ECB or Bank of England, were all perceived by markets as "dovish" tightening - and hence led to even more buoyant financial markets. Policymakers are so scared the financial bubbles they created might burst that today what might be good for the economy is subservient to the needs of Wall Street."


He then brings up our favorite new normal word - "paradox" of course - and lays out the problem on the chart below, stating that "the current situation is even worse than in the run-up to the 2008 crisis. At least back then rate hikes did not lead to easing financial conditions the way they do now! The Fed"?s desire to soothe the nerves of the financial markets has made a mockery of their tightening cycle."



Naturally, Edwards was just getting started, and the furious rant continues:








You don?t have to be a genius to reach the conclusion that central banks? dovish tightening really means there has been no tightening of monetary policy at all for Wall Street. But for Main Street, interest rate hikes do have an economic impact that will ultimately end in recession, and like an increasingly stretched elastic band this tension will eventually snap with disastrous financial market consequences. Many clients we meet have similarly apocalyptic views to our own but remain fully invested. They cannot see an immediate trigger for the financial Armageddon that they accept is heading slowly our way.



And yet, despite central bankers" best intentions to kill the free and efficient market, this time something may be changing, and may soon unleash that "shock" event that is so critical for the market to determine just what the new strike price of the Fed put is as BofA explained: that something is China.


Making the "China" case, Edwards refers to a post we published recently, and cautions that "investors are convinced that China?"s policymakers remain firmly in control of economic events." Here"s why that is no longer the case.








But Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital notes it may be that the China credit multiplier, after years of diminishing returns, is finally exhausted. He writes, “given what we’ve seen this year – ie 101.7% new credit issuance growth YTD through Oct. 2017 (see chart below) – it seems the level of credit necessary to stimulate growth in China could prove elusive at this point. We don’t recall any economist’s forecasts exiting 2016 pointing to China’s new credit issuance more than doubling Y/Y in 2017, yet that’s exactly what’s happened. Had this been our base case, we would have expected all economic indicators in China to be moving substantially higher at this point in the cycle.”




Edwards then goes full circle to reach the same conclusion we have referenced so many times: the next crash will come out of China, and it will be at Beijing"s doing:








On this view if China?s policymakers are now pressing hard on the policy brakes after their politically expedient puffing up of the economy, a soft landing might prove more elusive than almost any investor currently assumes. Could this yet be the trigger that blindsides investors?



It could, especially since it was -ironically enough - China which in early 2016 halted what then appeared to be a global risk crash:








... it was this February?s Shanghai G20 deal that marked the point when global investors totally removed China from their watch list of things to be concerned about. That G20 meeting saw an agreement not to engage in further competitive devaluation and helped reverse the period of sustained dollar strength that had been exacerbating the renmnibi""s problems (weaker US economic data in the face of huge dollar bullishness also helped reverse the dollar?s prior relentless rise). Hence investors are very relaxed about China at exactly the point they should not be.



Which is why it would be so delightfully ironic once the next global crash originates out of China, the same country that saved the world with its gargantuan credit creation first in 2008/2009 and the second time in 2016/2017. Ironic, or perhaps the right word is paradox...









Thursday, December 7, 2017

The Latte Index: Using The Impartial Bean To Value Currencies

Like any other market, there are many opinions on what a currency ought to be worth relative to others.


With certain currencies, that spectrum of opinions is fairly narrow. As an example, for the world’s most traded currency – the U.S. dollar – the majority of opinions currently fall in a range from the dollar being 2% to 11% overvalued, according to organizations such as the Council of Foreign Relations, the Bank of International Settlements, the OECD, and the IMF.


For other currencies, the spectrum is much wider. The Swiss franc, which some have called the world’s most perplexing currency, has estimates from those same groups ranging from about 13% undervalued to 21% overvalued.


As VisualCapitalist"s Jeff Desjardins notes, such a variance in estimates makes it hard to come up with any conclusive consensus – so in today’s chart, we refer to a more caffeinated and fun measure that also approximates the relative value of currencies.



THE IMPARTIAL BEAN


The “Latte Index”, developed by The Wall Street Journal, uses purchasing-power parity (PPP) – comparing the cost of the same good in different countries – to estimate which currencies are overvalued and undervalued.


In this case, the WSJ tracked down the price of a tall Starbucks latte in dozens of cities around the world. These prices are then converted to U.S. dollars and compared to the benchmark price, which is a tall Starbucks latte in New York City (US$3.45).



Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist


The Latte Index is mostly for fun, but it’s also broadly in line with predictions made by the experts.


For example, the price of a latte in Toronto, Canada works out to US$2.94, which is about 14.8% under the benchmark NYC price. This suggests that relative to the USD, the Canadian dollar is undervalued. Interestingly, estimates from the aforementioned sources (BIS, OECD, CFR, IMF) have the Canadian dollar at being up to 10% undervalued – which puts the Latte Index not too far off.


Given the wild range of estimates that exist for currency values, using the relative cost of a cup of joe might be as good of a proxy as any.









Saturday, November 4, 2017

The Economic End Game Continues

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,


In November of 2014 I published an article titled "The Economic End Game Explained". In it I outlined what I believed would be the process by which globalists would achieve what they call the "new world order" or what they sometimes call the "global economic reset."



As I have shown in great detail in the past, the globalist agenda includes a fiscal end game; a prize or trophy that they hope to obtain. This prize is a completely centralized global economic structure, rooted in a single central bank for the world, the removal of the U.S. dollar as world reserve currency, the institution of the SDR basket system which will act as a bridge for single a global currency supplanting all others and, ultimately, global governance of this system by a mere handful of "elites."


The timeline for this process is unclear, but there is some indication of when the "beginning of the end" would commence. As noted in the globalist owned magazine The Economist, in an article titled "Get Ready For The Phoenix," the year of 2018 seems to be the launching point for the great reset. This timeline is supported by the numerous measures already taken to undermine dollar dominance in international trade as well as elevate the International Monetary Fund"s SDR basket. It is clear that the globalists have deadlines they intend to meet.


That said, there have been some new developments since I wrote my initial analysis on the end-game strategy that I think merit serious attention. The end game continues, faster than ever before, and here are some of the indicators showing that the "predictions" of the globalists at The Economist in 1988 were more like self-fulfilling prophecies and 2018 remains a primary nexus point for a re-engineering of our economic environment.


Using The East To Dismantle The Petrodollar


As I mentioned in last week"s article, "Lies And Distractions Surrounding The Petrodollar," there has been silence and often disinformation in the mainstream when it comes to the quite open and obvious international pivot away from the dollar as the defacto purchasing mechanism for oil. This trend is only set to accelerate in two months as China begins fulfilling oil contracts in the Yuan instead of the dollar.


The problem is that even in the alternative media there is a continuing myth that Eastern nations are angling to "break away" from the international order. I often see the argument presented that the loss of the petrodollar can only be a good thing for the world. I am not here to comment on whether the end of oil-denominated in dollars is a good or bad thing. I am here, though, to point out that there is absolutely no indication whatsoever that major eastern powers like Russia and China are acting to undermine the existing globalist system.


On the contrary, China and Russia remain, as ever, heavily partnered with the IMF as well as the Bank for International Settlements, and their ties to international banking monoliths like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are long established.


Eastern political and economic officials have consistently called for a new reserve system supplanting the dollar, this is true. But what so many analysts seem to overlook is that they ALSO call for that new system to be dominated by the IMF.


The delusion that the financial world operates on is that the IMF is "controlled" by the U.S. It is not. It is controlled by international bankers, who have no loyalties to any specific country. Once one understands this fact, the systematic sabotage of the U.S. makes perfect sense, as well as the collusion between China, Russia and the IMF. America is a sacrificial appendage of the globalist edifice and is being torn down piece by piece in order to feed the creation of something new and perhaps even more sinister.


As George Soros proclaimed back in 2009, the "new world order" would rely in part on China as a replacement economic engine for the globalist machine and depend far less on a diminishing United States. China would serve as a smaller engine, but a replacement engine none the less.


China is more than happy to oblige the globalists with a concerted  and incremental program of de-dollerization. But this does not mean that the end-goal is a "petroyuan." No, the goal is for the IMF to assert the dominance of the SDR basket system as a reserve hub. And, China is now the flagship market for the SDR after its recent induction into the fold. There will be no single reserve currency after the dollar is brutalized. At least, not until all currencies are homogenized through the SDR basket and finally replaced with a single global currency unit. Until then, the IMF or the BIS will dictate nation-to-nation trade and monetary exchange.


It only follows that this highly-volatile rebirth of the global financial order would begin in part with the dollar"s loss of petro-status. The oil trade is the one defining element that gives the dollar a fundamental edge over all other currencies. It is the closest thing we have to commodity backing for the dollar and it is an advantage no other currency in the world can yet boast. There are many ways to destroy the dollar, but the BEST method would be to end its petro-status.


The Global Currency Unit Is Already Here


One argument I used to hear often from naysayers on global currency was that there "is no monetary unit with enough liquidity to replace the dollar." Of course, these people have no understanding of the SDR basket and how it could be used to envelop and absorb most if not all currencies into a single reserve mechanism. That said, I understand the confusion. When people think of currencies, they think of physical tickets of measurement; they want to see a piece of paper with symbols, or, they want to at least see a brand name for the product, which is what all currencies really are.


When The Economist in 1988 called for a global currency to launch in 2018, they were perhaps not aware of the exact form the destructor would take. Even in 2014 I was not fully convinced we had enough evidence on what that unit of measurement would be or look like. Today, it is clear as crystal — the one world currency system will not only be a cashless system, but it will also be based on digital blockchain technology.


As I examined in my article "The Globalist One World Currency Will Look A Lot Like Bitcoin," while some politicians and banking moguls publicly attack blockchain-based products like Bitcoin or Etherium, in the background they are actually heavily invested in these systems and are even building their own. With central banking mascots like Ben Bernanke becoming keynote speakers at blockchain conferences, it is not exactly an elusive secret that the global banks love blockchain tech.


Even major elitist corporations like Amazon appear ready to adopt blockchain products as currencies.  So, one needs to ask the question:  If the blockchain and Bitcoin are such a dire threat to the centralization of the establishment, why are they rapidly laying all the groundwork necessary for blockchain systems to replace paper currencies?


What is interesting to me is that even in the highly vigilant world of alternative economics, which is well aware of the trend towards a global currency system, blockchain systems are still revered as if they will save us from central bank tyranny. Very few people have noticed that The Economist call for a 2018 one world monetary framework has arrived slightly early; it has been right under our noses for several years. With blockchain-based methods of exchange, a replacement structure for the dollar and all other national currencies is not very far away.



The Federal Reserve Implosion Program Continues


I remember back before 2008 when the media almost never treated actions at the Federal Reserve as major news.  In fact, I remember back when the average American had never even heard for the Federal Reserve, and some believed the very existence of the institution was a "conspiracy theory".  Now, the nomination for the new Fed chair is at the top of the news feeds, but for all the wrong reasons.


The changing of the Fed chair is absolutely meaningless as far as policy is concerned.  Jerome Powell will continue the same exact initiatives as Yellen; stimulus will be removed, rates will be hiked and the balance sheet will be reduced, leaving the massive market bubble the Fed originally created vulnerable to implosion.  Equities in particular display the behavior of an out of control bullet train similar to the 2006/2007 bubble, or even the delusional exuberance prominent before the crash of 1929. 


All of this optimism is dependent on two things - dumb blind faith that all investors will continue to act in perfect concert to always "buy the dip", and, continued faith that central banks will forever step in to obstruct and reverse any market correction.


An observant person, however, might have noticed that central banks around the world seem to be acting in a coordinated fashion to remove stimulus support from markets and raise interest rates, cutting off supply lines of easy money that have long been a crutch for our crippled economy.  The Bank of England raised rates this past week, as the Federal Reserve indicated yet another rate hike in December.  The Europeans Central Bank continues to prep the public for coming rate hikes, while the Bank of Japan has assured the public that "inflation" expectations have been met and no new stimulus is necessary.  If all of this appears coordinated, that is because it is.


Fed policy is not dictated by the Fed chair, and it is certainly not dictated by Donald Trump. As former chairman Alan Greenspan openly admitted, the central bank does NOT answer to government, it is an autonomous policy making machine.  Fed chairs are as easily replaced as lawnmower parts; they are mascots for the banking system, nothing more.  Once they are "nominated" by the president, they take their orders from another source entirely, and I would even question the validity of the nomination process and how the original list of candidates is chosen.  For the real puppeteers at the Fed, one would need to look to an organization outside the U.S., called the Bank for International Settlements.


Many Subtle Changes Add Up To Unprecedented Instability


I think it is vital for people to consider time when it comes to economics. Changes we think were abrupt during historic moments of crisis were often not abrupt at all. Almost all financial crisis "events" were preceded by years if not decades of growing but subtle cracks in the foundation. If you were to travel back 10 years ago and explain to the average person (or the average mainstream economist) what is happening today, he would probably scoff indignantly. Yet today these things are accepted as commonplace, or ignored as unimportant.  Time and short attentions spans are the bane of free societies.


The skeleton of the "new world order" economy is right in front of us. The triggers for explosive change have already been planted. What concerns me is, when these changes come to fruition and crisis follows, will the masses even notice?









Thursday, November 2, 2017

World"s Longest Bull Market (55 Years) In Australian House Prices Is Over, According To UBS

This morning, CoreLogic released its monthly report on Australian house prices – the world’s longest running bull market. Finally, measures to tighten credit standards and dissuade overseas buyers (especially Chinese in Sydney and Melbourne) are beginning to bite and price rises ground to a halt last month. From the report...


Since moving through a peak rate of growth in November 2016, capital gains across Australia’s housing market have been losing momentum, with national dwelling values unchanged over the month of October. For October, conditions were flat across both the combined capital cities and the combined regional areas of Australia, however over the past twelve months growth in the capital cities (+7.0%) has outperformed the regional areas (+4.9%).


 


CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said, “The slowdown in the pace of capital gains can be attributed primarily to tighter credit policies which have fundamentally changed the landscape for borrowers.” 


 


“Lenders have tightened their servicing tests and reduced their appetite for riskier loans, including those on higher loan to valuation ratios or higher loan to income multiples.  Additionally, interest only borrowers and investors are facing premiums on their mortgage rates which are likely to act as a disincentive, especially for investors who are generally facing low rental yields on investment properties. 


 


“In fact, the peak rate of growth in dwelling values lines up closely with the peak growth rate for investment lending in late 2016.   We saw the housing market respond in a similar fashion through 2015, and the first half of 2016 as investors faced tighter credit conditions following the announcement from APRA that lenders couldn’t surpass a 10% speed limit on investment lending.”



The top line in CoreLogic’s summary table below shows that Sydney prices seem to be leading national prices lower.



Following the release of the data, Bloomberg reports that UBS is calling an end to the boom in Australian housing...


The housing boom that has seen Australian home prices more than double since the turn of the century is “officially over,” after data showed prices now flatlining, UBS Group AG said.


 


National house prices were unchanged in October from September, while annual growth has slowed to 7 percent from more than 10 percent as recently as July, CoreLogic data released Wednesday showed. “There is now a persistent and sharp slowdown unfolding,” UBS economists led by George Tharenou said in a report.


 


“This suggests a tightening of financial conditions is unfolding, which we expect to weigh on consumption growth via a fading household-wealth effect.”


 


An end to Australia’s property boom will be welcome news for first-time buyers, who have struggled to break into the market after surging prices propelled Sydney past London and New York to be the second-most expensive housing market. Less impressed may be property investors, already squeezed by regulatory lending curbs that drove up mortgage rates.


 


The cooling housing market may encourage the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates at a record low. A rate hike would be undesirable as it would put further downward pressure on dwelling prices, said Diana Mousina, senior economist at AMP Capital Investors.




The regulatory crackdown on the insanely loose practice of lending on high loan to valuation ratios is well overdue. This was permitting speculators to use unrealized gains on one property as a down payment on another property, then another property as prices roses, and so on. See our post from last month “Australia Mortgage Market Is Now A $1.7 Trillion ‘House Of Cards.’”


As we noted at the times, over a decade ago, the U.S. residential housing market was revealed to be perhaps the biggest ponzi scheme ever created as easy financing enabled people to buy/build countless investment properties, that they were in no way adequately capitalized to own, with no money down all based on the premise that the house could be "flipped" before the first mortgage payment even came due.  It was a classic ponzi that worked great for a while but inevitably turned south when home prices suddenly soured and their was no cash equity backing the trillions of dollars in outstanding mortgage debt. But, if a new report from LF Economics is even directionally accurate, then the bubble currently percolating in Australia could take the residential housing ponzi game to a whole new level courtesy of a "creative" little product called "cross-collateralized residential mortgages."


The Australian mortgage market has “ballooned” due to banks issuing new loans against unrealised capital gains of existing investment properties, creating a $1.7 trillion “house of cards”, a new report warns.


 


The report, “The Big Rort”, by LF Economics founder Lindsay David, argues Australian banks’ use of “combined loan to value ratio” — less common in other countries — makes it easy for investors to accumulate “multiple properties in a relatively short period of time despite high house prices relative to income”.


 


“The use of unrealised capital gain (equity) of one property to secure financing to purchase another property in Australia is extreme,” the report says.


 


“This approach allows lenders to report the cross-collateral security of one property which is then used as collateral against the total loan size to purchase another property. This approach substitutes as a cash deposit.


 


“This has exacerbated risks in the housing market as little to no cash deposits are used.”



Yes, you read that correctly...Australian housing speculators can literally use unrealized gains in investment properties as a "cash substitute" for down payments on other investment properties.  Of course, we"re not experts at "the mathematics," but if you constantly take every dollar worth of equity you accrue and pledge it as collateral toward a new purchase then doesn"t that mean the entire system is built on debt and no actual equity at all?


Earlier this month, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a new working paper“Interest rates and house prices in the United States and around the world”.


This identified Australia’s 55-year housing bull market – 50 years from 1961-2010 then 2013-2017 without a downswing in between – as the longest in world. The US housing bull market from 1992-2006 was a mere 15 years. This was the BIS methodology.


Another way to appreciate the persistence of house prices is to contrast the length of their upswings and downswings. We define an upswing (downswing) as a period of house price increases (decreases) sustained in an individual country for three years or more. Based on this definition, periods of upswing accounted for nearly 80% of the advanced economy sample. The up swings lasted on average 13 years; with the longest one, in Australia, still continuing after half a century.


Here are the results in tabular form – Australia is third from bottom...



Since 2000, the BIS found that Australia has seen the second largest increase in real house prices, only exceeded by New Zealand – where the new government has just banned foreign buyers from the market.


 


Our gut feeling is that today’s data signals the beginning of a “Minsky Moment” for the Australian housing market.









Monday, October 23, 2017

Are Cryptocurrencies Inflationary?



Are Cryptocurrencies Inflationary?


Posted with permission and written by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse 





Are Cryptocurrencies Inflationary? - John Rubino

 


 


There’s a debate raging over what, exactly, bitcoin and the thousand or so other cryptocurrencies actually are. Some heavy-hitters are weighing in with strong, if not always coherent opinions:


 








Jamie Dimon calls bitcoin a ‘fraud’








 


JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon did not mince words when asked about the popularity of virtual currency bitcoin.








Dimon said at an investment conference that the digital currency was a “fraud” and that his firm would fire anyone at the bank that traded it “in a second.” Dimon said he supported blockchain technology for tracking payments but that trading bitcoin itself was against the bank’s rules. He added that bitcoin was “stupid” and “far too dangerous.”








————————









Peter Schiff: Even at $4,000 bitcoin is still a bubble








 


One of the best-known among the bears, investor Peter Schiff, is now making his case in even stronger terms for why bitcoin has advanced ever farther into bubble territory.








Schiff, who predicted the 2008 mortgage crisis, famously referred to bitcoin as digital fool’s gold and compared the cryptocurrency to the infamous bubble in Beanie Babies.








Moreover, the recent run-up in bitcoin hasn’t softened Schiff’s view: If anything, it’s reinforced his sense of impending doom.








Schiff told CoinDesk:








“There’s certainly a lot of bullishness about bitcoin and cryptocurrency, and that’s the case with bubbles in general. The psychology of bubbles fuels it. You just become more convinced that it’s going to work. And the higher the price goes, the more convinced you become that you’re right. But it’s not going up because it’s going to work. It’s going up because of speculation.”








“What it comes down to is that bitcoin ain’t money.”








“Libertarian-minded crypto fans saw this was a way to liberate people from the government,” he said, concluding:








“I think it will have the opposite effect. People are going to lose money. This could really backfire, giving libertarian ideals a bad name by making fiat look good. The downside can be really spectacular.”








————————









Hedge fund manager James Altucher: Cryptocurrencies Could Be Worth $200 Trillion One Day








 


I’m not exaggerating when I say cryptocurrencies are the biggest innovation since the internet. We’re on the ground floor of an enormous trend that’s going to change the world.









Cryptocurrencies are currencies with no government in the middle. No bank in the middle. No organizations in the middle keeping track of all your payments, or taking advantage of your spending so they can invade your privacy, and on and on.








Cryptocurrencies solve trillions of dollars’ worth of problems, which is why they will be worth trillions of dollars one day.








Consider the potential:








There is currently $200 trillion in cash, money and precious metals used as currencies in the world. Meanwhile, there’s only $200 billion in cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are eventually replacing traditional currencies.








So that $200 billion will eventually rise to the level of currencies. And probably sooner than we can imagine.








Ask yourself, why does the world need multiple currencies? There’s actually no real reason. The only reason we have a U.S. dollar and also a Canadian dollar is that in 1770 the people in Canada decided not to join the U.S. So an artificial border created two currencies. It’s all dictated by artificial borders.









In the past, an ounce of gold would be accepted almost anywhere in the world. In that sense, unbacked modern fiat currencies are a step backwards.








But in cryptocurrency world, there are what I call “Use Borders.” Every currency is defined by its use. For instance, Ethereum is like Bitcoin but it makes “smart contracts” easier. Contract Law is a multi-trillion dollar industry so this has a huge use case. Filecoin makes storage easier. It’s a $100 billion industry. And on.








Studying the “use” cases, and the effectiveness of the coin to solve those use cases can help us make investment decisions confidently.








This is the great promise of cryptocurrencies and why they will change the world. It’s just getting started.









Don’t try to make sense of the above. Instead, let’s just assume that the cryptocurrency universe will continue to expand for a while and narrow the discussion down to a single question: Are cryptocurrencies inflationary? That is, will their spread lead to higher or lower prices for the average person, and greater or lesser financial instability for the markets, and what does this mean for today’s fiat currencies?


 


One common opinion is that cryptocurrencies can’t be inflationary because their owners have to pay for them in fiat currencies. So one bitcoin bought means one dollar, yen, or euro sold, with the net effect on prices being zero.


 


This makes intuitive sense at first glance, but only holds for the moment of purchase. Consider what happened after someone in, say, 2014 exchanged dollars for bitcoins. The dollars held most of their value, which means the total amount of dollar purchasing power in the world remained constant. But those bitcoins went up by several thousand percent, dramatically increasing the purchasing power – and thus the potential inflationary impact – of the bitcoin complex.


 


A real world example is Julian Assange:


 








Julian Assange Says Wikileaks Has Made a 50,000% Return on Bitcoin. Here’s What That Means








 


Wikileaks has seen an amazing return on investments in bitcoin, founder Julian Assange says, and he is “thanking” the U.S. government for forcing the controversial organization to get into bitcoin in the first place.








In a Tweet on Saturday, Assange said the group’s investment in the cryptocurrency has seen a return greater than 50,000% since 2010. Wikileaks began investing in bitcoin back then because global payment processors like Visa, Mastercard, and Paypal were under pressure by the U.S. government to block the ability of the group to take payments.









In fact, Bitcoin has seen a more-than 9 million percent return over the dates Assange references. In certain periods in 2010, bitcoin was trading for mere pennies. According to coindesk.com, one unit of bitcoin is now worth a record high of roughly $5,700. Anyone buying bitcoin through much of 2011 and 2012, when one unit was sometimes trading below $1 and was often under $10, would indeed see a return on investment of more than 50,000%, assuming they never sold.









The difference between Wikileak’s purchasing power pre and post-bitcoin is immense. If Assange decides to spend his windfall on goods and services he’d have, at the margin, an inflationary impact on the stuff he buys.


 


So the answer to the question of cryptocurrencies’ impact on price levels depends on how their values change. If they rise after people buy them, then they’re inflationary. If they rise a lot, they’re potentially very inflationary.


 


In this sense, it might be helpful to view cryptocurrencies as assets like houses or stocks rather than as money. When they rise relative to fiat currencies they increase the purchasing power of their owners, generate a “wealth effect” in which owners feel richer and more comfortable with splurging, and in that way push up prices. Based on the following chart, a lot of early adopters are feeling a whole lot richer these days.


 




 


Which then leads to what might be the major cryptocurrency theme of the coming year: Why would governments allow such an inflationary supernova to explode right in front of them when they presumably have the power to stop it? Here’s one possible — and of course disturbing — answer:


 








Will cryptocurrencies trash cash? ‘Fedcoin’ could do it








 


Economist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research asks the obvious question: Why would central banks—which derive their power as the centralized gatekeepers of fiat currency creation, check clearing and payment processing—embrace a movement that’s primary motivation has been to usurp this power in a decentralized way?









Part of that, according to St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard, is recognition that the technology has achieved critical mass. Thus, there’s a fear of being left behind as the very foundations of banking and monetary policy—intermediation, funds transfers, transactions—rapidly change, not unlike the way the creation of mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps changed housing finance in the mid-2000s.








There’s another, more self-serving purpose: Central banks could use their own cryptos to put the squeeze on paper currency. Why? To facilitate the use of negative interest rate policy, which has been deployed in Europe and Japan in recent years in half-baked forms. Currently, in Switzerland, short-term interest rates are at -0.75%.








When another recession hits, especially if one comes soon, a dive to even deeper rates of negative interest would be hampered by the hoarding of cash since banks would charge for deposits (vs. absorbing the cost of negative rates themselves, as they’re doing now). This is known by the economics cognoscenti as the “zero lower bound” in that interest rates cannot go much below negative before the traditional functions of deposits, loans and fractional money creation break down. Mattress stuffing ensues en masse.








The Fed is clearly thinking about it. In testimony to Congress last year, Fed chairman Janet Yellen admitted policymakers “expect to have less scope for interest-rate cuts than we have had historically,” adding she would not completely rule out the use of negative interest rates.








The BIS­—the central bank of central banks—in its latest quarterly review posited that a crypto backed by the Fed “has the potential to relieve the zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy.” Any distinction between regular dollars and this new “Fedcoin” could be removed by establishing a fixed one-to-one valuation. Any competition

from the likes of bitcoin could be squashed by regulation; not unlike how the private ownership of gold was outlawed in the 1930s when it threatened the Fed’s ability to ease credit conditions.









At the risk of being repetitious, pretty much all of the above looks good for gold and great for silver.


 


 


Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts HERE.


 


 


 


 


Are Cryptocurrencies Inflationary?


Posted with permission and written by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse


 

Sunday, October 22, 2017

Xi"s Roadmap To The Chinese Dream

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,


China"s Belt and Road Initiative - the New Silk Road - will spark the country"s development and turn the dream into reality...



It all starts with Hong Kong as a major BRI financing hub.


Now that President Xi Jinping has been duly elevated to the Chinese Communist Party pantheon in the rarified company of Mao Zedong Thought and Deng Xiaoping Theory, the world will have plenty of time to digest the meaning of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.”


Xi himself, in his 3½-hour speech at the start of the 19th Party Congress, pointed to a rather simplified “socialist democracy” – extolling its virtues as the only counter-model to Western liberal democracy. Economically, the debate remains open on whether this walks and talks more like “neoliberalism with Chinese characteristics”.


All the milestones for China in the immediate future have been set.


  • “Moderately prosperous society” by 2020.

  • Basically modernized nation by 2035.

  • Rich and powerful socialist nation by 2050.

Xi himself, since 2013, has encapsulated the process in one mantra; the “Chinese dream”. The dream must become reality in a little over three decades. The inexorable modernization drive unleashed by Deng’s reforms has lasted a little less than four decades. Recent history tell us there’s no reason to believe phase 2 of this seismic Sino-Renaissance won’t be fulfilled.


Xi emphasized, “the dreams of the Chinese people and those of other peoples around the world are closely linked. The realization of the Chinese dream will not be possible without a peaceful international environment and a stable international order.”


He mentioned only briefly the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as having “created a favorable environment for the country’s overall development”. He didn’t dwell on BRI’s ambition and extraordinary scope, as he does in every major international summit as well as in Davos earlier this year.


But still it was implicit that to arrive at what Xi defines as a “community of common destiny for mankind”, BRI is China’s ultimate tool. BRI, a geopolitical/geoeconomic game-changer, is in fact Xi’s – and China’s – organizing foreign policy concept and driver up to 2050.


Xi has clearly understood that global leadership implies being a top provider, mostly to the global South, of connectivity, infrastructure financing, comprehensive technical assistance, construction hardware and myriad other trappings of “modernization”.


It does not hurt that this trade/commerce/investment onslaught helps to internationalize the yuan.


It’s easy to forget that BRI, an unparalleled multinational connectivity drive set to economically link all points Asia to Europe and Africa, was announced only three years ago, in Astana (Central Asia) and Jakarta (Southeast Asia).



What was originally known as the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road were endorsed by the Third Plenum of the 18th CCP Central Committee in November 2013. Only after the release of an official document, “Visions and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Roads”, in March 2015, the whole project was finally named BRI.


According to the official Chinese timeline, we’re only at the start of phase 2. Phase 1, from 2013 to 2016, was “mobilization”. “Planning”, from 2016 to 2021, is barely on (and that explains why few major projects are online). “Implementation” is supposed to start in 2021, one year before Xi’s new term expires, and go all the way to 2049.


The horizon thus is 2050, coinciding with Xi’s “rich and powerful socialist nation” dream. There’s simply no other comprehensive, inclusive, far-reaching, financially solid development program on the global market. Certainly not India’s Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC).


Have BRI, will travel


It starts with Hong Kong. When Xi said, “We will continue to support Hong Kong and Macau in integrating their own development into the overall development of the country”, he meant Hong Kong configured as a major BRI financing hub – its new role after a recent past of business facilitator between China and the West.


Hong Kong’s got what it takes; convertible currency; total capital mobility; rule of law; no tax on interest, dividends and capital gains; total access to China’s capital market/savings; and last but not least, Beijing’s support.


Enter the dream of myriad financing packages (public-private; equity-debt; short-long term bonds). Hong Kong’s BRI role will be of the Total Package international financial center (venture capital; private equity; flotation of stocks and bonds; investment banking; mergers and acquisitions; reinsurance) interlinked with the Greater Bay Area – the 11 cities (including Guangzhou and Shenzhen) of the Pearl River Delta (light/heavy manufacturing; hi-tech venture capitalists, start-ups, investors; top research universities).


That ties up with Xi’s emphasis on innovation; “We will strengthen basic research in applied sciences, launch major national science and technology projects, and prioritize innovation in key generic technologies, cutting-edge frontier technologies, modern engineering technologies, and disruptive technologies.”


The integration of the Greater Bay Area is bound to inspire, fuel, and in some cases even mould some of BRI’s key projects. The Eurasian Land Bridge from Xinjiang to Western Russia (China and Kazakhstan are actively turbo-charging their joint free trade zone at Khorgos). The China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. The connection of the Central Asian “stans” to West Asia – Iran and Turkey. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from Xinjiang all the way to Gwadar in the Arabian Sea – capable of sparking an “economic revolution” according to Islamabad. The China-Indochina corridor from Kunming to Singapore. The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor (assuming India does not boycott it). The Maritime Silk Road from coastal southeast China all the way to the Mediterranean, from Piraeus to Venice.


Yiwu-London freight trains, Shanghai-Tehran freight trains, the Turkmenistan to Xinjiang gas pipeline – these are all facts on the ground. Along the way, the technologies and tools of infrastructure connectivity – applied to high-speed rail networks, power plants, solar farms, motorways, bridges, ports, pipelines – will be closely linked with financing by the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the security-economic cooperation imperatives of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to build the new Eurasia from Shanghai to Rotterdam. Or, to evoke Vladimir Putin’s original vision, even before BRI was launched, “from Lisbon to Vladivostok”.


Xi did not spell it out, but Beijing will do everything to stay as independent as possible from the Western Central Bank system, with the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) to be avoided in as many trade deals as possible to the benefit of yuan-based transactions or outright barter. The petrodollar will be increasingly bypassed (it’s already happening between China and Iran, and Beijing sooner rather than later will demand it from Saudi Arabia.)


The end result, by 2050, will be, barring inevitable, complex glitches, an integrated market of 4.5 billion people mostly using local currencies for bilateral and multilateral trade, or a basket of currencies (yuan-ruble-rial-yen-rupee).


Xi has laid China’s cards – as well as the road map – on the table. As far as the Chinese Dream is concerned, it’s now clear; Have BRI, Will Travel.