On February 21, all the major Chinese TV channels were reporting that the hull of China’s second aircraft carrier was finished, as it awaited the painting stage to start, even though the beginning of its had officially been announced less than a year earlier.
Yet, it should be noted that we’re speaking about the official acknowledgment of the fact, since China’s intentions to build a fleet of aircraft carriers along with the possible specifications of its future ships were being discussed for years.
There is no doubt that the authorities of China’s principal geopolitical opponent knew about these plans for a while now, since it’s pretty much impossible to hide a massive hull of a typical aircraft carrier being erected in the docks of the Dalian city from satellites.
It should be noted that China has an aircraft carrier in its Navy – Liaoning that is named after the province where the Dalian dock city is situated. This warship was born when China decided to subject the unfinished Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag that they bought from Ukraine back in 90s to a major overhaul. Ever since 2013 this ship has been used by the Chinese Navy for the accumulation of the experience and expertise needed for the creation of new and more modern ships.
However, it’s been employed in a number of the show the flag operations, especially in the South China Sea, as 80% of its territory are being disputed by regional players, most of which are expecting various degrees of Washington’s support if things go south. NEO has been covering such operations, the last of which began with the passage of a large battle group, headed by Liaoning, through the Miyako Strait.
As for the new aircraft carrier that is under construction right now, experts agree that it is pretty much mimicking the Soviet design that is to be observed in Liaoning, but the Chinese side argues that its the characteristics of this new warship will be “much more impressive”. In particular, it seems that China is planning to expand the number of J-15 fighter jets (a variant of Russia’s Su-33) that are to be carried simultaneously.
Perhaps, the hull is to be launched this year for the ship to be become fully operational in the next two to three years. The Chinese Navy is planning to acquire the fully operational combat carrier in 2020.
The construction of one more aircraft carrier of the same design is to begin in the nearest future. The main design feature of all the Liaoning design ships is the ramp that is situated in the front part of the deck ramp, allowing jets to take off by the so-called ski-jump method.
However, future Chinese carriers are to be equipped with steam catapults that are then to be replaced by a more promising electromagnetic catapult. It’s should be noted that out of the 11 aircraft-carriers that are being operated by the US Navy not a single one is equipped with electromagnetic catapult. It’s expected that the carriers of the new Gerald R. Ford class, the first of which must be handed to the US Navy this year after countless delays, will be the first US carrier to put the new catapult design to the regular use.
From the political point of view, it’s been particularly interesting to hear the remarks made by the representatives of China’s government at the hull presentation, that announced that in order to ensure China’s national security, its Navy must have “at least” six aircraft carrier battle groups.
It’s been extremely noteworthy to learn that in addition to the future presence of two groups in the Western Pacific, the other two aircraft carrier groups are going to patrol the Indian Ocean. As for the remaining two, they are most likely to be kept in reserve.
If one is to follow the rhetorics that Beijing has been voicing in the last 10-15 years, the fact that the Indian Ocean is to be patrolled by Chinese aircraft carrier are planning to patrol it, too, should not be surprising. Even today there’s a number of reports about the limited permanent presence of some Chinese destroyers, frigates, and submarines in this area. NEO has repeatedly discussed the critical importance of the Indian Ocean for the smooth functioning of the Chinese economy.
Apparently, today in Beijing is trying to secure its trade traffic by simultaneously implementing two complementary projects. Of these, the first is to establish a land trade route through Pakistan, which will connect the western province of China to the ports of Gwadar and Karachi on the Arabian Sea. The second is to establish the permanent presence of the Chinese Navy forces in the Indian Ocean, sufficient to ensure the safe movement of cargo ships between Gwadar and Karachi, on the one hand, as well as ports in the Persian Gulf and East Africa on the other.
However, the prospect of China’s growing military presence in the Indian Ocean doesn’t sound promising for New Delhi, which has always believed that the Indian Navy should play a decisive role in India’s “own” ocean. To address this problem, India is stepping up its naval construction projects, where an extreme amount of importance is attached to the construction of aircraft carriers.
At this point the aircraft carrier Vikramaditya has been flying the flag of the Indian Navy for three years. Just like the Chinese Liaoning, it was constructed through the deep modernization of the former Soviet aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, in which Russia was assisting India. The next step is the construction of similar designs, but this time in India.
The process of Japan’s process normalization will be playing an extremely important role in shaping the situation in the Indian Ocean region. Although the South China Sea will become the first Asia-Pacific sub-region, where the military and political aspects of the carrier race will be felt, Japan has recently been paying a lot of attention to the Indian Ocean region. This is particularly important counter India’s interest in expanding comprehensive Japan’s presence in the region.
To place will be noted that the Japanese Navy already have two light aircraft carriers of Izumo class, that are being referred to, however, as “destroyer-helicopter carriers”. According to experts, on the decks of Izumo, besides helicopters, there’s more than enough space for the fifth-generation fighter F-35 if it is produced in the variant allowing vertical take-off.
If Tokyo doubts about the reliability of it reliance on the United States in security issues will be strengthened, it will undoubtedly dramatically accelerate the process of building up the Japanese military. In this case, a part of the Japanese Navy will be provided with a list of modern aircraft carriers that will be much larger than the Izumo class.
However, the strengthening of the military presence of China, India, and Japan in the Indian Ocean region region is a matter of future. As of now this region is being dominated by US Navy. There’s a possibility that there could be a “fast transfer” of this region to Washington’s “reliable ally”, among which the primary position is occupied by India. For the first time such a possibility was announced ten years ago, as it would have been quite consistent with the concept of “offshore balancing” (formulated in the second half of the 90s), which suggested the US military and political withdrawal from the front lines of confrontation with its main geopolitical opponents by allowing its allies to step in.
In fact, attempts of practical implementation of this concept were examined in Obama’s first term. So Trump’s neo-isolationism in its current manifestation is not new, as the concept behind it was developed some 20 years ago.
But in any case the (hypothetical) American “fast transfer” of the Indian Ocean region can be pursued when there’s more or less first visible signs of the Sino-Indian union being formed.
In conclusion, one might note that the great Indian Ocean is pretty vast, so its waters can harbor all sorts of aircraft carriers and other warships from different countries without creating any conflicting preconditions.
But the fact is that they will move around on the same route, carefully keeping eye on each other. And in this case, as they say, “various scenarios” can be observed in this region.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
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