These days this song is getting a new meaning in France, but this time it is referring not to the Duke of Marlborough, the notorious politician of the XVIII century, but the sitting French president Francois Hollande and the meeting of the Western coalition defense ministers that he is holding in Paris.
It goes without saying that against the background of the ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Syria and Washington’s urgent need for good PR due to the ongoing presidential campaign in the US, the meeting has been devoted to the discussions of the new attack on Mosul and the assault on the Syrian city of Al-Raqqa.
It is truly remarkable that the discussion of the plan to strike Al-Raqqa is being held with no international mandate allowing this course of action for any of the Western states, while it seems pretty unlikely that the legitimate government of Syria will invite any of the NATO states that have been busy trying to topple it, to take any military actions in Al-Raqqa. Obviously we are being hinted that we must get used to the fact that it’s not the international law that determines the rules of the game, but Washington’s desires instead.
The battle for Mosul has become the major PR-event on the eve of the US presidential election in the West. The capture of this city could become a major foreign policy victory for Washington and would provide Hillary Clinton with additional points in her struggle with Trump, that has been criticizing Obama for the lack of determination to put an end to ISIS.
While watching this PR stunt, Francois Hollande has decided that he too could do something similar to raise his approval ratings that have been at a record low for years, since he too has an election campaign ahead of him.
However, according to some experts, the assault of Mosul won’t yield any quick results, so the US would hardly finish it before the US presidential election is over.
Even in Paris the Western defense ministers recognized that the capture of Mosul will be rather tricky since since it remains the main bastion of ISIS forces in the region. Iraqi troops have stopped 6 miles away from the city perimeter since their attack has choked. The full encirclement of Mosul may be achieved in a month. The assault on the city may take from a couple weeks to several months. Today it’s pretty clear that the radical militants are not going to flee Mosul.
Iraqi army has no vehicles that could survive the narrow street fighting. Its troops are exhausted, and even though they are surrounding the city, they are pretty much unable to proceed without foreign assistance. Moreover, they are being constantly attacked by jihadists from all sides, that employ the hit and run tactics. It is believed that a total of 4,000 radical militants are trapped in the city, while the siege is being carried out by up to 50 thousand soldiers of the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga.
The situation is being complicated even further by the presence of large numbers of civilians in the city, so any major assault may result in significant loss of life among the civilian population, as it has been shown by the recent US airstrikes on Mosul. At this stage of the operation, street fighting in the city populated by 1.5 million residents – may be extremely bloody and protracted.
Today there is little doubt that Mosul will sooner or later be taken. The question is when and at what price, since it’s difficult to say how long will it actually take. According to the Army Lieutenant General US Sean MacFarland, commander of the international coalition forces against ISIS, Iraqi forces are confident that they will take Mosul by the end of the year. This same opinion has been voiced by the Brigadier General of the Kurdish forces Sirwan Barzani, who believes that the city will be taken in two months. The US military and politicians are more cautious in their forecasts. President Barack Obama has stated that there’s great difficulties in the way of the successful assault therefore he diplomatically hinted that this year will create “favorable preconditions” for the capture of Mosul. US Vice President Joseph Biden has been “very optimistic” about the prospects of the assault, but yet preferred not to speak about the timeframe. Secretary of State John Kerry said Washington would be supporting Baghdad in its effort to capture Mosul as fast as possible, and that it allocated a total of 155 million dollars to support this effort.
Even though the White House understands that it will be unable to score a “victory over ISIS” before the presidential election in the United States is over, it wants to create preconditions for the future military aggravation in Syria, that would be pursued by Hillary Clinton, when and if she takes office. The bet is that she would get the US, that is fighting five wars at the time already, even deeper in foreign meddling and military conflicts.
However, as Western officials claim, the complete victory over radical Islamists be can achieve only by taking their self-proclaimed capital of the Islamic State – the Syrian city of Al-Raqqa.
Although the capture of Al-Raqqa is mentioned in Hillary’s presidential election promises, however, it will be much tougher that the battle for Mosul. That is why the Elysee Palace is going to use the PR of the battle for Al-Raqqa to improve Francois Hollande’s reelection chances. For this reason, the French authorities have been claiming that there should be not delay with the capture of Al-Raqqa, the “ISIS bastion in Syria.” The Defense Ministry of France has already released the statement that there can be no victory over ISIS without the capture of Al-Raqqa and the settlement of the Lebanese issues. For this reason, the preparations for the battle of Al-Raqqa was one of the main talking points of the Paris meeting, where 13 defense ministers engaged in the discussion moderated by the American Ashton Carter and Frenchman Jean-Yves Le Drian.
But it is doubtful that these preparations for the Battle of Al-Raqqa in the absence of any international mandate will be able to improve the image of the present-day “Marlbrough” and ensure his victory in the presidential election of 2017.
Jean Périer is an independent researcher and analyst and a renowned expert on the Near and Middle East, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
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